Ashraf Ghani: How to fix broken states

翻译人员: MIN SU 校对人员: L Y

A public, Dewey long ago observed,

“共和”概念，正如美国哲学家杜威很久之前所观察到的，

is constituted through discussion and debate.

通过辩论和讨论而成。

If we are to call the tyranny of assumptions into question,

如果我们质疑暴政的假想，

and avoid doxa, the realm of the unquestioned,

避免不经推敲的教条，

then we must be willing to subject our own assumptions

那么我们必须愿意把自己的假想

to debate and discussion.

进行讨论辨伪。

It is in this spirit that I join into a discussion

正是秉着这种精神我才来此参与讨论

of one of the critical issues of our time,

这个我们时代的关键议题，

namely, how to mobilize different forms of capital

即如何调动各式各样的资本

for the project of state building.

为国家重建服务。

To put the assumptions very clearly:

首先明晰我们的假设，

capitalism, after 150 years, has become acceptable,

资本主义经过150年的发展已被广为接受，

and so has democracy.

民主亦然。

If we looked in the world of 1945

如果我们回看1945年的世界，

and looked at the map of capitalist economies and democratic polities,

并且查看当时资本主义经济体系及民主政治版图，

they were the rare exception, not the norm.

它们只是少数，并非主流。

The question now, however,

然而目前的问题是，

is both about which form of capitalism

选择何种资本主义体制

and which type of democratic participation.

及何种民主参与机制。

But we must acknowledge

但我们必须承认

that this moment has brought about

此刻要唤起

a rare consensus of assumptions.

宝贵的共识达成一致。

And that provides the ground

及提供基础

for a type of action,

以促成一种行动，

because consensus of each moment

因为每个时刻的共识

allows us to act.

能让我们共同行动。

And it is necessary, no matter how fragile

而且这是必须的，不管

or how provisional our consensus,

我们的共识如何脆弱或短暂，

to be able to move forward.

共识能让我们前进。

But the majority of the world

但是世界大部分地区

neither benefits from capitalism

既没有从资本主义体系获利

nor from democratic systems.

也没有从民主体系里获利。

Most of the globe

全球大部分国家的经历

experiences the state as repressive,

都是认为美国是压抑性的

as an organization that is concerned

作为一种

about denial of rights,

关注拒绝权利

about denial of justice,

否认正义的组织，

rather than provision of it.

而不是提供权利和正义的机构。

And in terms of experience of capitalism,

从资本主义发展历程来看，

there are two aspects

其全球经验

that the rest of the globe experiences.

主要有两方面，

First, extractive industry.

首先是资源采掘

Blood diamonds, smuggled emeralds,

血钻，宝石走私，

timber,

木材，

that is cut right from under the poorest.

从穷国掠夺财富。

Second is technical assistance.

其次是技术援助。

And technical assistance might shock you,

技术援助和你想的不一样，

but it's the worst form

但它是当今最差劲的形式，

of -- today -- of the ugly face

它表现出了发达国家对发展中国家

of the developed world to the developing countries.

丑陋的面孔。

Tens of billions of dollars

想象一下上百亿美元

are supposedly spent on building capacity

被一些人投入能力建设

with people who are paid up to 1,500 dollars a day,

他们每天最高得到1500美元，

who are incapable

却不能

of thinking creatively,

创造性地

or organically.

独立地思考。

Next assumption --

其次，当然我对

and of course the events of July 7,

6月７日的事件

I express my deep sympathy, and before that, September 11 --

深表同情，还有９１１，

have reminded us

这些都提醒我们

we do not live in three different worlds.

我们不是生活在三个不同的世界，

We live in one world.

而是一个。

But that's easily said.

简单点儿说

But we are not dealing with the implications

我们并不是在和

of the one world that we are living in.

我们所生活的世界的含义打交道。

And that is that if we want to have one world,

也就是说，如果我们想要拥有一个世界，

this one world cannot be based

这个世界是不能建立在

on huge pockets of exclusion,

先有巨大的排斥，

and then inclusion for some.

然后再对其中一些进行包容之上的。

We must now finally come

我们现在终于必须来思考一下

to think about the premises

一个真正的全球型世界

of a truly global world,

的前提是什么，

in relationship to the regime of rights

与权力政权和

and responsibilities and accountabilities

责任感和可靠性之间的关系

that are truly global in scope.

在全球维度内是怎样的。

Otherwise we will be missing

否则我们将会

this open moment in history,

丢失这个历史上的开放时刻，

where we have a consensus

一个我们在政治

on both the form of politics

和经济的形式

and the form of economics.

达成共识的时刻。

What is one of these organizations to pick?

这三个组织中该选哪一个呢？

We have three critical terms:

我们有3个很关键的术语：

economy,

经济，

civil society

公民社会

and the state.

和国家。

I will not deal with those first two, except to say

我并不涉及前两个，只能说

that uncritical transfer of assumptions,

不加批判的对假设的转移

from one context to another,

从一个语境到另一个语境之下，

can only make for disaster.

只可能酿成灾难。

Economics

经济学，

taught in most of the elite universities

在最多的精英大学里都有课程

are practically useless in my context.

但这在我的语境中可以说是完全没有用的。

My country is dominated

我的国家

by drug economy and a mafia.

被毒品经济和黑手党所操控

Textbook economics does not work in my context,

书本上的经济学并不能

and I have very few recommendations from anybody

在我的语境中发挥作用，

as to how to put together a legal economy.

而且我几乎得不到任何建议。

The poverty of our knowledge

我们知识的贫穷

must become the first basis

必将成为前进的

of moving forward,

第一块基石。

and not imposition of the framework

而不是作用于数学模型基础上的

that works on the basis of mathematical modeling,

框架，

for which I have enormous respect.

当然，我对此还是深怀敬意的。

My colleagues at Johns Hopkins were among the best.

我的在约翰霍普金斯的同事是最好的。

Second,

第二，

instead of debating endlessly

不要再无止境地去辩论

about what is the structure of the state,

一个国家的结构是什么样的，

why don't we simplify

我们为什么不能将其简化，

and say, what are a series of functions

而去讨论一个国家21世纪

that the state in the 21st century must perform?

必须具备的一系列功能是什么？

Clare Lockhart and I are writing a book on this;

克莱尔 洛克哈特和我正在就此写一本书

we hope to share that much widely with --

我们希望能彼此之间能够有更多的沟通与分享。

and third is that we could actually construct an index

第三，我们实际上可以建立一个指数，

to measure comparatively

来测量

how well these functions that we would agree on

相比较之下，这些功能发挥得怎么样，是否令我们满意，

are being performed in different places.

并且能推广到其他的地方。

So what are these functions?

那么这些功能是什么呢？

We propose 10.

我们来举10个例子。

And it's legitimate monopoly of means of violence,

它们是：对暴力途径的合法化的垄断，

administrative control, management of public finances,

行政控制，公共财政管理

investment in human capital, provision of citizenship rights,

人力资金投资，民权保障

provision of infrastructure,

基础设施建设，

management of the tangible and intangible assets of the state

通过调控进行对国家有形与无形资产管理，

through regulation, creation of the market,

市场的创造，

international agreements, including public borrowing,

国际合约 -- 包括公共借贷 --

and then, most importantly, rule of law.

还有最重要的是，法律规范。

I won't elaborate.

我不会进一步阐述。

I hope the questions will give me an opportunity.

我希望这些问题可以给予我一个机会。

This is a feasible goal,

这是一个切实的目标，

basically because, contrary to widespread assumption,

因为与广泛的假设相反

I would argue that we know how to do this.

我不认为我们知道该如何处理这件事。

Who would have imagined that Germany

谁能想到德国

would be either united or democratic today,

今天会变成联合或者民主的，

if you looked at it from the perspective of Oxford of 1943?

如果你从1943年的牛津的视角去看这个问题的话。

But people at Oxford prepared for a democratic Germany

但是牛津的人民为一个民主德国做好了准备，

and engaged in planning.

并积极计划着。

And there are lots of other examples.

还有很多其他的例子。

Now in order to do this -- and this brings this group --

现在，为了做这件事，

we have to rethink the notion of capital.

我们必须重新思考资本的定义。

The least important form of capital, in this project,

最微不足道的一种资本形式是，

is financial capital -- money.

是财经资本 -- 金钱。

Money is not capital in most of the developing countries.

金钱在众多发展中国家中不都不能算作是资本。

It's just cash.

它只是现金。

Because it lacks the institutional,

因为它缺乏机制的，

organizational, managerial forms

组织的，管理的形式，

to turn it into capital.

来将它转变为资本。

And what is required

而且它所需要的是

is a combination of physical capital,

物理资本

institutional capital, human capital --

与体制资本，人力资本的结合。

and security, of course, is critical,

当然，安全性是至关重要的，

but so is information.

信息也是。

Now, the issue that should concern us here --

现在，我们应该担忧的问题，

and that's the challenge

同时也是我希望给您们这群人

that I would like to pose to this group --

带来的挑战是

is again, it takes 16 years

你们国家需要16年

in your countries

来培养一个

to produce somebody with a B.S. degree.

有学士学历的人。

It takes 20 years

20年来培养一个

to produce somebody with a Ph.D.

有博士学位的人

The first challenge is to rethink,

第一个挑战是要

fundamentally,

从基本上进行重新思考

the issue of the time.

当代的问题。

Do we need to repeat

我们需要重复

the modalities that we have inherited?

我们所继承的方式吗？

Our educational systems are inherited from the 19th century.

我们的教育系统是自19世纪传承而来的。

What is it that we need to do fundamentally

为了从根本上重新投入到一个项目中，

to re-engage in a project,

什么是我们需要的呢，

that capital formation is rapid?

在这个资本形成如此之快的当下？

The absolute majority of the world's population

世界上的绝大多数人

are below 20,

都在20岁以下，而且他们正在变得

and they are growing larger and faster.

更多，成长得更快。

They need different ways

他们需要不同的方式

of being approached,

不同的对待的方式。

different ways of being enfranchised,

不同的享有权利的方式。

different ways of being skilled.

不同的被训练的方式。

And that's the first thing.

这是首要的。

Second is, you're problem solvers,

第二，你们是问题的解决者，

but you're not engaging your global responsibility.

但是你们没有尽到你们的全球性责任。

You've stayed away

你们已经远离了

from the problems of corruption.

腐败问题。

You only want clean environments in which to function.

你们只想看到干净的环境。

But if you don't think through the problems of corruption,

但是你们没有彻底看透腐败的问题，

who will?

谁还能呢？

You stay away from design for development.

你们避免为发展做规划。

You're great designers,

你们是伟大的设计师，

but your designs are selfish.

但是你们的设计是自私的。

It's for your own immediate use.

只是为了你们自己即时的用处。

The world in which I operate

在我的世界，我与

operates with designs

那些道路、

regarding roads, or dams,

堤坝、或者电力供应

or provision of electricity

的设计打交道，

that have not been revisited in 60 years.

这些设计已经有60年没有被重温了。

This is not right. It requires thinking.

这是不正确。需要我们来思考一下。

But, particularly, what we need

更重要的是，

more than anything else from this group

我们最需要的

is your imagination

是你们的想象力，

to be brought to bear on problems

用想象力来解决问题

the way a meme is supposed to work.

这是米姆本应产生作用的方式。

As the work on paradigms, long time ago showed --

而就范式的作用来说，在很久以前，

Thomas Kuhn's work --

托马斯-坤的工作，

it's in the intersection of ideas

他的工作是

that new developments --

概念的内部分工中，

true breakthroughs -- occur.

新的发展出现。

And I hope that this group

我希望这个组织，通过这些方式

would be able to deal with the issue of state and development

可以有能力处理关于政府和国家的问题

and the empowerment of the majority of the world's poor,

以及给予这个世界占大多数的穷人

through this means.

以权力。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Chris Anderson: So, Ashraf, until recently,

克里斯 安德森：“那么，Ashraf先生，直到最近，

you were the finance minister of Afghanistan,

你一直是阿富汗的财政部长，

a country right at the middle

这是一个处在世界事务

of much of the world's agenda.

中心的国家。

Is the country gonna make it?

这个国家真的能够完成（你所说的那些）吗？

Will democracy flourish? What scares you most?

民主可否繁荣？什么使你最为生畏？

Ashraf Ghani: What scares me most is -- is you,

Ashraf Ghani:“最令我害怕的，是你们，

lack of your engagement.

是缺乏你们的积极参与。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You asked me. You know I always give the unconventional answer.

你问了我。你知道我总是给出一些非传统的答案。

No. But seriously,

不。但是说真的，

the issue of Afghanistan

阿富汗的问题

first has to be seen as,

必须首先被视作

at least, a 10- to 20-year perspective.

一个至少10到20年的视角。

Today the world of globalization

今天，全球化

is on speed.

在加速。

Time has been compressed.

时间已经被压缩了。

And space does not exist for most people.

空间对于大多数人来说也已不再存在。

But in my world --

但是在我的世界里，

you know, when I went back to Afghanistan after 23 years,

你要知道，当我23年之后回到阿富汗的时候，

space had expanded.

空间已经扩大了。

Every conceivable form of infrastructure had broken down.

所有可感知的社会基础设施被毁坏了。

I rode -- traveled --

我旅行着，

travel between two cities that used to take three hours

原本需要花3个小时往返的城市

now took 12.

现在需要12个小时。

So the first is when the scale is that,

所以，首先，当度量标准变了，

we need to recognize

我们必须要认识到

that just the simple things that are infrastructure --

基础设施就是这么简单的一些东西，

it takes six years to deliver infrastructure.

而要传递基础设施需要6年的时间。

In our world.

在我们的世界，

Any meaningful sort of thing.

所有像这样有意义的东西。

But the modality of attention,

但是注意力的情态

or what is happening today, what's happening tomorrow.

或者说今天发生了什么，明天将发生什么。

Second is,

第二，

when a country has been subjected

当一个国家

to one of the most immense, brutal forms of exercise of power --

已经从属于最广泛、残忍的权力施行形式之一的时候，

we had the Red Army

我们连续10年，

for 10 continuous years,

拥有红军，

110,000 strong,

110,000个强壮的人

literally terrorizing.

真的很吓人

The sky:

天空：

every Afghan

每一个阿富汗人

sees the sky as a source of fear.

将天空视为恐惧的来源。

We were bombed

我们几乎已经快被轰炸

practically out of existence.

给灭绝了。

Then, tens of thousands of people were trained in terrorism --

然后，成千上万的人被训练程恐怖分子，

from all sides.

什么方面的都有。

The United States, Great Britain, joined for instance,

美国，英国加入了

Egyptian intelligence service

诸如埃及情报服务的组织

to train thousands of people

来训练成千上万的人

in resistance and urban terrorism.

来抵御和城市恐怖主义。

How to turn a bicycle

如何把一辆自行车

into an instrument of terror.

变成一种恐怖行动的工具。

How to turn a donkey, a carthorse, anything.

如何将一头驴子，一辆马车，任何东西，（变成恐怖行动的工具）。

And the Russians, equally.

俄罗斯人也是一样。

So, when violence erupts

所以，当暴力在一个国家，

in a country like Afghanistan,

比如阿富汗，

it's because of that legacy.

是因为有那样一种传统。

But we have to understand

但是我们必须明白

that we've been incredibly lucky.

我们已经非常幸运了。

I mean, I really can't believe how lucky I am here,

我的意思是，我真的无法相信我有多么幸运能来到这里，

standing in front of you, speaking.

站在你们面前讲话。

When I joined as finance minister,

当我成为财政部长的时候，

I thought that the chances of my living more than three years

我以为我能活过3年的概率

would not be more than five percent.

不超过5%。

Those were the risks. They were worth it.

危险是存在的，但是也是值得的。

I think we can make it,

我认为我可以做到，

and the reason we can make it

而且我如此认为的原因，

is because of the people.

就在于人民。

You see, because, I mean -- I give you one statistic.

你知道，因为，我给你们一个数据好了。

91 percent of the men in Afghanistan,

在阿富汗91%的男人，

86 percent of the women,

86%的女人，

listen to at least three radio stations a day.

每天都会听至少3个收音频道来

In terms of their discourse,

讲述这个世界的

in terms of their sophistication of knowledge of the world,

复杂性。

I think that I would dare say,

我敢说，

they're much more sophisticated

他们

than rural Americans with college degrees

比美国的拥有大学文凭的人，

and the bulk of Europeans --

和大把的欧洲人都要深刻。

because the world matters to them.

因为这些跟他们息息相关。

And what is their predominant concern?

而他们的最主要的担忧是什么呢？

Abandonment.

遗弃。

Afghans have become deeply internationalist.

阿富汗人已经深深地成为了国际主义者了。

You know, when I went back in December of 2001,

你知道，当我在2001年12月份回国的时候，

I had absolutely no desire to work with the Afghan government

我一点都不想与阿富汗政府合作。

because I'd lived as a nationalist.

因为我是一个国家主义者。

And I told them -- my people, with the Americans here --

我告诉他们 - 我的人民，和美国人在这 -

separate.

是分开的

Yes, I have an advisory position with the U.N.

是的，我在联合国有着顾问的职位。

I went through 10 Afghan provinces very rapidly.

我快速地穿越了10个阿富汗的省份。

And everybody was telling me it was a different world.

每个人都告诉我，这是一个不同的世界。

You know, they engage.

你知道，他们参与进来了。

They see engagement, global engagement,

他们看见了国际的介入，

as absolutely necessary to the future of the ordinary people.

这对于这些普通人的未来是至关重要的。

And the thing that the ordinary Afghan is most concerned with is --

而普通的阿富汗人最为关心的是

Clare Lockhart is here,

克莱尔 洛克哈特在这里，

so I'll recite a discussion she had

所以我讲讲述一段她

with an illiterate woman in Northern Afghanistan.

与一个阿富汗北部的未接受过教育的妇女的讨论。

And that woman said she didn't care

那个妇女说她不关心

whether she had food on her table.

她的饭桌上是否有食物。

What she worried about was whether there was a plan for the future,

她关心的是未来是否有计划，

where her children could really have a different life.

她的孩子们能否有个不一样的人生。

That gives me hope.

这给予了我希望。

CA: How is Afghanistan

CA：阿富汗

going to provide alternative income

怎么能为那么多以毒品交易为生的人

to the many people

提供

who are making their living off the drugs trade?

收入呢？

AG: Certainly. Well, the first is,

AG：当然了。首先，

instead of sending a billion dollars

不要再花费几十亿美元

on drug eradication

在毒品根除上了，

and paying it to a couple of security companies,

取而代之的是，把资金给几个安全公司，

they should give this hundred billion dollars

他们将上千亿美元的资金

to 50

分给50个

of the most critically innovative companies in the world

全球最具开创性的公司，

to ask them to create one million jobs.

让他们创造一百万个工作。

The key to the drug eradication is jobs.

根除毒品的关键在于工作。

Look, there's a very little known fact:

看，这有个鲜为人知的事实：

countries that have a legal average income per capita of 1,000 dollars

人均合法的年收入在1000美元以上的国家

don't produce drugs.

不生产毒品。

Second, textile.

第二，纺织品。

Trade is the key, not aid.

贸易是关键，而不是援助。

The U.S. and Europe

美国和欧洲应该

should give us a zero percent tariff.

给我们零关税。

The textile industry is incredibly mobile.

纺织品行业极具移动性。

If you want us to be able to compete with China and to attract investment,

如果你想让我们有能力与中国竞争并吸引投资，

we could probably attract

我们可能可以很轻松地

four to six billion dollars

凭借纺织品行业

quite easily in the textile sector,

吸引60亿美元，

if there was zero tariffs --

如果零关税的话，

would create the type of job.

这也可以创造很多工作岗位。

Cotton does not compete with opium;

棉花不能与鸦片相比，

a t-shirt does.

但是T恤可以。

And we need to understand, it's the value chain.

而且我们需要知道，这是一个价值链。

Look, the ordinary Afghan is sick and tired

看，一个普通的阿富汗已经

of hearing about microcredit.

对微贷款很厌烦了。

It is important,

这很重要，

but what the ordinary women and men who engage in micro-production want

对于那些从事微生产的人

is global access.

最需要的的国际的切入口。

They don't want to sell to the charity bazaars

他们不想要卖给仅针对外国人

that are only for foreigners --

的慈善义卖会，

and the same bloody shirt

而且要把同样的衬衫

embroidered time and again.

一遍又一遍的绣。

What we want is a partnership

我们需要

with the Italian design firms.

与意大利的设计公司合作。

Yeah, we have the best embroiderers in the world!

是的，我们有全世界最好的缝纫师！

Why can't we do what was done with northern Italy?

为什么我们不能做与意大利北部做的东西一样的呢？

With the Put Out system?

凭着发行系统？

So I think economically,

所以我认为，经济上，

the critical issue really is to now think through.

关键问题在于如何思考。

And what I will say here is that aid doesn't work.

我在这里要说援助没有用。

You know, the aid system is broken.

你知道，援助系统坏了。

The aid system does not have the knowledge,

它不具备只是

the vision, the ability.

远见，和能力。

I'm all for it; after all, I raised a lot of it.

我是全力支持慈善的；毕竟我提倡了很多。

Yeah, to be exact, you know,

是的，准确的说，我试图

I managed to persuade the world that

劝说这个世界来

they had to give my country 27.5 billion.

给我的国家275亿。

They didn't want to give us the money.

他们不想给我们金钱。

CA: And it still didn't work?

CA：还是不起作用吗？

AG: No. It's not that it didn't work.

AG：不。不是不起作用。

It's that a dollar of private investment,

只是，一美元的私人投资，

in my judgment,

在我看来，

is equal at least to 20 dollars of aid,

等于至少20美元的援助，

in terms of the dynamic that it generates.

就它产生的动力来看。

Second is that one dollar of aid could be 10 cents;

第二，1美元的援助可能变成10美分

it could be 20 cents;

或者20美分，

or it could be four dollars.

或者变成4美元，

It depends on what form it comes,

这取决于它以什么形式来的，

what degrees of conditionalities are attached to it.

它附带的条件的级别是什么。

You know, the aid system, at first, was designed to benefit

你知道，援助系统起初是为了奖励

entrepreneurs of the developed countries,

发达国家的企业家的，

not to generate growth in the poor countries.

而不是为贫困国家产生财富增长。

And this is, again, one of those assumptions --

这又是一个假设：

the way car seats are an assumption

如同汽车座椅一样的假设，

that we've inherited in governments, and doors.

我们从政府和门继承而来的。

You would think that the US government

你也许会想美国政府

would not think that American firms needed subsidizing

不认为美国的公司需要

to function in developing countries, provide advice,

在发展中国家设立分公司，提供建议，

but they do.

但他们需要。

There's an entire weight of history

面对面援助

vis-a-vis aid

有一个历史的重量

that now needs to be reexamined.

这现在需要被重新检验。

If the goal is to build states

如果目标是建立能

that can credibly take care of themselves --

可靠地照顾好他们自己的国家，

and I'm putting that proposition equally;

而我是公平地将提出这个建议的，

you know I'm very harsh on my counterparts --

你知道，我对于我的对手非常严苛--

aid must end

援助必须在每一个国家，

in each country in a definable period.

在一定期限内停止。

And every year there must be progress

每一年，

on mobilization of domestic revenue

国内收入的流动

and generation of the economy.

和经济的刺激生长必须获得进步。

Unless that kind of compact is entered into,

除非那样的一种影响介入，

you will not be able to sustain the consensus.

你们将不能够保持同一意见。