Dambisa Moyo: Is China the new idol for emerging economies?

翻译人员: Jingwei Gu 校对人员: Samson Zhong

"Give me liberty or give me death."

“不自由，毋宁死”

When Patrick Henry, the governor of Virginia,

当弗吉尼亚州州长帕特里克·亨利(Patrick Henry)

said these words in 1775,

在1775 年说出这些话时，

he could never have imagined

他根本没有想到

just how much they would come to resonate

这句话会和后代的美国人

with American generations to come.

产生多少共鸣。

At the time, these words were earmarked

当时，这些词专门

and targeted against the British,

针对英国人，

but over the last 200 years, they've come to embody

但过去 200 年来，这句话开始体现出

what many Westerners believe,

许多西方人的信仰，

that freedom is the most cherished value,

那就是言论自由价值万千，

and that the best systems of politics and economics

而且，最好的政治制度与经济体制

have freedom embedded in them.

一定有自由的元素嵌入其中。

Who could blame them?

谁能责怪他们呢?

Over the past hundred years, the combination

在过去几百年中，

of liberal democracy and private capitalism

自由民主和私人资本主义的组合

has helped to catapult the United States

帮助了美国和西方国家

and Western countries

迅速崛起，

to new levels of economic development.

将经济发展到新的水平。

In the United States over the past hundred years,

过去几百年中，

incomes have increased 30 times,

美国人的收入增加了 30 倍，

and hundreds of thousands of people

有數十萬人，

have been moved out of poverty.

脱离了贫困。

Meanwhile, American ingenuity and innovation

与此同时，美国的独创性和创新精神

has helped to spur industrialization

帮助推动了产业化

and also helped in the creation and the building

同时也有助发明和创造

of things like household appliances

家电一类的产品

such as refrigerators and televisions,

比如冰箱、 电视、

motor vehicles and even the mobile phones in your pockets.

小汽车，甚至你口袋中的手机。

It's no surprise, then, that even at the depths

这一切都毫不令人意外，而后，

of the private capitalism crisis,

即使在私人资本主义危机深重的时候

President Obama said,

奥巴马总统都说道：

"The question before us is not whether the market

"我们面前的问题不在于市场

is a force for good or ill.

是正面还是负面的力量。

Its power to generate wealth and to expand freedom

市场创造财富，扩展自由

is unmatched."

的力量是无与伦比的。

Thus, there's understandably

因此，人们可以理解

a deep-seated presumption among Westerners

这个在西方人脑海中根深蒂固的观念，

that the whole world will decide to adopt

全世界都会采取

private capitalism as the model of economic growth,

私人资本主义作为经济增长的模式，

liberal democracy, and will continue

采纳自由民主，并将持续

to prioritize political rights over economic rights.

优先选择获得政治权利而非经济利益。

However, to many who live in the emerging markets,

但是，对很多生活在新兴市场国家的人来说，

this is an illusion, and even though

这是一种空想，即使

the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,

1948年签署的

which was signed in 1948,

《世界人权宣言》

was unanimously adopted,

获得了一致通过，

what it did was to mask a schism

它所做的也是掩盖

that has emerged between developed and developing countries,

发达国家和发展中国家之间出现的分裂，

and the ideological beliefs

以及政治权利和经济利益间

between political and economic rights.

不同意识形态的分裂。

This schism has only grown wider.

这个分裂不断扩大。

Today, many people who live in the emerging markets,

今天，很多人生活在新兴国家，

where 90 percent of the world's population lives,

占世界人口的90%，

believe that the Western obsession

他们不相信西方对政治权利的执着

with political rights is beside the point,

有那么重要，

and what is actually important

真正重要的是

is delivering on food, shelter,

政府提供食物、 住所、

education and healthcare.

教育和医疗保健。

"Give me liberty or give me death"

"不自由，毋宁死"

is all well and good if you can afford it,

确实理想，但要在能负担的前提下才成立，

but if you're living on less than one dollar a day,

但如果你每天靠不到 1 美元收入过活，

you're far too busy trying to survive

你只会挣扎求生存

and to provide for your family

和供养家人

than to spend your time going around

而不会花时间到处去

trying to proclaim and defend democracy.

宣扬和捍卫民主。

Now, I know many people in this room

现在，我知道在座的很多人

and around the world will think,

以及世界各地的许多人会认为，

"Well actually, this is hard to grasp,"

"事实上，这很难让人接受，"

because private capitalism and liberal democracy

因为私人资本主义和自由民主

are held sacrosanct.

是神圣不可侵犯的。

But I ask you today, what would you do

但我现在问你，如果要你选择

if you had to choose?

你会怎么做？

What if you had to choose

如果你必须在

between a roof over your head

有地方住

and the right to vote?

和投票的权之间做出选择，你会怎么选？

Over the last 10 years,

过去 10 年中，

I've had the privilege to travel to over 60 countries,

我曾有幸到 60 多个国家旅行，

many of them in the emerging markets,

许多是新兴国家，

in Latin America, Asia,

在拉丁美洲、 亚洲、

and my own continent of Africa.

和我家乡非洲大陆的一些国家。

I've met with presidents, dissidents,

我见过总统、异议人士、

policymakers, lawyers, teachers,

政策制定者、 律师、 教师、

doctors and the man on the street,

医生和路人，

and through these conversations,

并通过和他们的谈话，

it's become clear to me

清楚了解到

that many people in the emerging markets

很多新兴国家的人们

believe that there's actually a split occurring

相信确有正在形成的分裂，

between what people believe ideologically

西方人相信的

in terms of politics and economics in the West

政治经济意识形态

and that which people believe in the rest of the world.

和世界其他地区人们相信的不一样。

Now, don't get me wrong.

现在，不要误解我的意思。

I'm not saying people in the emerging markets

我不是说在新兴市场中的人们

don't understand democracy,

不懂民主，

nor am I saying that they wouldn't ideally

我也不是说在理想的情况下

like to pick their presidents or their leaders.

他们不愿意自由选择自己的总统或领导人。

Of course they would.

他们当然愿意。

However, I am saying that on balance,

然而若考虑各种条件，

they worry more about

他们会更关心

where their living standard improvements are going to come from,

如何改善生活水平，

and how it is their governments can deliver for them,

以及政府如何提供途径，

than whether or not the government

而不是政府

was elected by democracy.

是否由民主选举产生。

The fact of the matter

事实上，

is that this has become a very poignant question

这已经成为一个非常沈痛的问题

because there is for the first time in a long time

因为这是在很长时间内第一次

a real challenge to the Western ideological systems

对西方政治和经济意识形态系统

of politics and economics,

的真正挑战，

and this is a system that is embodied by China.

这是以中国为代表的系统，

And rather than have private capitalism, they have state capitalism.

不是私人资本主义，而是国家资本主义。

Instead of liberal democracy, they have de-prioritized the democratic system.

他们不主张自由民主，并推后实行民主制度。

And they have also decided to prioritize

他们亦决定优先考虑

economic rights over political rights.

经济利益而不是政治权利。

I put it to you today that it is this system

我今天为你们介绍的这个

that is embodied by China

以中国为代表的系统，

that is gathering momentum amongst people

得到新兴国家人民的广泛拥护

in the emerging markets as the system to follow,

并被当成体系来遵循，

because they believe increasingly

因为人们越来越相信

that it is the system

是这一体系

that will promise the best and fastest improvements

保证在最短时间内最好最快地改进

in living standards in the shortest period of time.

人们的生活标准。

If you will indulge me, I will spend a few moments

如果大家允许的话，我会花几分钟

explaining to you first

先向大家解释

why economically they've come to this belief.

为什么在经济上他们有这信念。

First of all, it's China's economic performance

首要因素是中国在过去三十年

over the past 30 years.

的经济表现。

She's been able to produce record economic growth

中国已经能够产生创纪录的经济增长

and meaningfully move many people out of poverty,

并卓有成效地使许多人摆脱了贫困，

specifically putting a meaningful dent in poverty

特别在消除贫困方面打开了缺口

by moving over 300 million people

使得超过 3 亿人

out of indigence.

脱离了贫穷。

It's not just in economics,

变化不仅发生在经济上，

but it's also in terms of living standards.

同时也发生在生活水平的变化上。

We see that in China, 28 percent of people

我们看到，过去在中国，只有28%的人口

had secondary school access.

接受中学教育。

Today, it's closer to 82 percent.

今天，这一数字接近于 82%。

So in its totality, economic improvement

所以总体上经济改善的成果

has been quite significant.

已经相当明显。

Second, China has been able

其次，中国已能

to meaningfully improve its income inequality

在不改变政治结构的前提下

without changing the political construct.

卓有成效地改善收入不平等的问题。

Today, the United States and China

今天，美国和中国

are the two leading economies in the world.

是世界上两个主要的经济体。

They have vastly different political systems

他们有着极其不同的政治制度

and different economic systems,

和经济制度，

one with private capitalism,

一个奉行私人资本主义

another one broadly with state capitalism.

另一个广泛地践行着国家资本主义。

However, these two countries

然而，这两个国家

have the identical GINI Coefficient,

有相同的基尼系数，

which is a measure of income equality.

基尼系数反应收入平等的状况。

Perhaps what is more disturbing

也许令人感到更加不安的是

is that China's income equality

中国的收入平等状况

has been improving in recent times,

最近以来一直在改善，

whereas that of the United States

而美国的情况

has been declining.

却一直在恶化。

Thirdly, people in the emerging markets

再次，新兴国家的人们

look at China's amazing and legendary

惊讶于中国如神话传说般的

infrastructure rollout.

基础设施建设。

This is not just about China

这不单指中国

building roads and ports and railways

在自己国家建设的

in her own country --

道路、港口、铁路——

she's been able to build 85,000 kilometers

中国已经建造了 85,000 公里长的

of road network in China

国内公路网

and surpass that of the United States --

并超越了美国建造的总长度

but even if you look to places like Africa,

但就算看看像非洲这样的地方，

China has been able to help tar the distance

中国已经帮助非洲铺设了从开普敦到开罗

of Cape Town to Cairo,

那么长距离的沥青路，

which is 9,000 miles,

长度是 9000 英里，

or three times the distance of New York to California.

或者说是从纽约到加利福尼亚州距离的三倍。

Now this is something that people can see and point to.

这是人们看得到摸得着的事物。

Perhaps it's no surprise

也许这并不令人意外

that in a 2007 Pew survey, when surveyed,

在 2007 年的皮尤调查中，

Africans in 10 countries said

来自10 个非洲国家的受访者说：

they thought that the Chinese were doing

他们认为，中国建设者们做了

amazing things to improve their livelihoods

一些令人称奇的事来提高非洲人的生活水平

by wide margins, by as much as 98 percent.

提升幅度之大，达到 98%之高。

Finally, China is also providing innovative solutions

最后，中国还提供创新方案

to age-old social problems that the world faces.

来解决世界面临的根深蒂固的社会问题。

If you travel to Mogadishu, Mexico City or Mumbai,

如果你到摩加迪沙(索马里首都)、 墨西哥城或孟买旅行

you find that dilapidated infrastructure and logistics

你会发现那些破旧不堪的基础设施和物流

continue to be a stumbling block

仍是发展偏远地区

to the delivery of medicine and healthcare

卫生保健的

in the rural areas.

一个绊脚石。

However, through a network of state-owned enterprises,

然而，通过国营企业通力合作

the Chinese have been able to go into these rural areas,

并藉国籍企业之便，

using their companies

中国已经能够走进这些农村地区，

to help deliver on these healthcare solutions.

协助解决当地的医药卫生问题。

Ladies and gentlemen, it's no surprise

女士们先生们，这并不令人意外

that around the world, people are pointing at what China is doing and saying,

在全世界各地，人们都在谈论中国的所作所为，

"I like that. I want that.

"我喜欢那样的。我想要那样的。

I want to be able to do what China's doing.

我想做中国做的事情。

That is the system that seems to work."

中国的体制看来是行得通的"。

I'm here to also tell you

说到这，我还要告诉你们，

that there are lots of shifts occurring

随着中国目前的发展，

around what China is doing

对民主的观点

in the democratic stance.

也产生了许多变化。

In particular, there is growing doubt

尤其是，在新兴市场国家

among people in the emerging markets,

有越来越多人的怀疑，

when people now believe that democracy

这是因为目前，民主制度

is no longer to be viewed

不再被视为

as a prerequisite for economic growth.

经济发展的先决条件。

In fact, countries like Taiwan, Singapore, Chile,

事实上，不只是中国，像台湾、 新加坡、 智利等

not just China, have shown that actually,

实际上都证实了这点，

it's economic growth that is a prerequisite

经济增长，是民主的

for democracy.

一个先决条件。

In a recent study, the evidence has shown

在最近的研究中，有迹象显示

that income is the greatest determinant

收入是决定民主持续时间的

of how long a democracy can last.

最大因素。

The study found that if your per capita income

研究发现，如果一国的人均收入

is about 1,000 dollars a year,

是大约 1000 美元一年，

your democracy will last about eight and a half years.

其民主政体将持续约八年半。

If your per capita income is between

如果一国人均收入在

2,000 and 4,000 dollars per year,

每年2000 至 4000 美元

then you're likely to only get 33 years of democracy.

可能会有33 年的民主。

And only if your per capita income

只有人均收入

is above 6,000 dollars a year

达到每年 6000 美元以上

will you have democracy come hell or high water.

民主才会持续。

What this is telling us

这告诉我们

is that we need to first establish a middle class

首先需要建立一个

that is able to hold the government accountable.

能问责政府的中产阶级。

But perhaps it's also telling us

但也许这还告诉我们

that we should be worried about going

我们应该为在世界各地

around the world and shoehorning democracy,

将民主强加于人感到不安

because ultimately we run the risk

因为最终我们要承担的风险

of ending up with illiberal democracies,

就是狭隘的民主，

democracies that in some sense

某种程度来说，这样的民主，

could be worse than the authoritarian governments

可能比设法终结的独裁政府

that they seek to replace.

还要糟糕!

The evidence around illiberal democracies

狭隘民主的证据

is quite depressing.

是十分让人沮丧的。

Freedom House finds that although 50 percent

自由之家（Freedom House）认为，虽然今天

of the world's countries today are democratic,

世界上 50%的国家是民主国家，

70 percent of those countries are illiberal

但这些国家中的 70%是狭隘的

in the sense that people don't have free speech

就人民没有

or freedom of movement.

言论或行动自由而言。

But also, we're finding from Freedom House

但同时，我们从自由之家

in a study that they published last year

去年出版的一项研究中发现

that freedom has been on the decline

过去七年的每一年里

every year for the past seven years.

自由的发展都在恶化。

What this says

这表示：

is that for people like me

对于像我这样的人

who care about liberal democracy,

在乎自由民主的人，

is we've got to find a more sustainable way

需要找到更多可持续的方式

of ensuring that we have a sustainable form

确保有一个可持续的

of democracy in a liberal way,

实现民主的方式，

and that has its roots in economics.

并且拥有深厚的经济基础。

But it also says that as China moves

但同时，当中国就要

toward being the largest economy in the world,

成为世界最大经济体时，

something that is expected to happen

专家预计2016 年

by experts in 2016,

这便会成真，

that this schism between the political

在西方和世界其他地区之间的

and economic ideologies of the West and the rest

政治和经济意识形态的分裂

is likely to widen.

很可能会扩大。

What might that world look like?

这个世界可能变成什么样？

Well, the world could look like

嗯，世界可能会有

more state involvement and state capitalism;

更多的国家干预和国家资本主义；

greater protectionisms of nation-states;

及民族国家更强烈的保护主义；

but also, as I just pointed out a moment ago,

但我刚才也提过的，

ever-declining political rights

不断减少的政治权利

and individual rights.

和个人权利。

The question that is left for us in general

因此我们共同的问题是，

is, what then should the West be doing?

在这之后，西方应该怎样做？

And I suggest that they have two options.

我认为，西方有两个选项。

The West can either compete or cooperate.

他们可以或竞争或合作。

If the West chooses to compete with the Chinese model,

如果西方选择与中国模式竞争，

and in effect go around the world

实质上就是要在全世界

and continue to try and push an agenda

继续尝试和推行

of private capitalism and liberal democracy,

私人资本主义和自由民主，

this is basically going against headwinds,

这基本上都是在逆风而行，

but it also would be a natural stance

但这对西方来说

for the West to take

也是理所当然的立场

because in many ways it is the antithesis

因为在很多方面

of the Chinese model

西方模式与中国模式的

of de-prioritizing democracy, and state capitalism.

暂缓民主和国家资本主义是对立的。

Now the fact of the matter is,

事实是，

if the West decides to compete,

如果西方决定要竞争，

it will create a wider schism.

将产生更大的分裂。

The other option is for the West to cooperate,

西方的另一个选项是进行合作，

and by cooperating I mean

我的意思是通过合作，

giving the emerging market countries the flexibility

给予新兴市场国家一些弹性空间，

to figure out in an organic way

让他们顺其自然地找出

what political and economic system

什么样的政治和经济制度

works best for them.

对他们来说才是最佳的。

Now I'm sure some of you in the room

我确信在座的有一些人

will be thinking, well, this is like ceding to China,

正在想，咳，这不就是对中国让步，

and this is a way, in other words,

换句话说，这种方式

for the West to take a back seat.

就是让西方处于次要地位。

But I put it to you

但我告诉你们

that if the United States and European countries

如果美国和欧洲国家

want to remain globally influential,

想要在全球保持影响力

they may have to consider cooperating

他们可能会为了竞争，

in the short term in order to compete,

短期内不得不考虑合作

and by that, they might have to focus

以此类推，他们可能不得不更积极地

more aggressively on economic outcomes

关注经济成果

to help create the middle class

来帮助创建中产阶层

and therefore be able to hold government accountable

让政府负起责任

and create the democracies that we really want.

并创建我们真正想要的民主政体。

The fact of the matter is that

事实就是，

instead of going around the world

与其在国际上

and haranguing countries for engaging with China,

鼓吹与中国交流，

the West should be encouraging its own businesses

西方应该鼓励自己的企业

to trade and invest in these regions.

在这些地区进行贸易和投资，

Instead of criticizing China for bad behavior,

与其批评中国的不良行为。

the West should be showing how it is

西方应该展示

that their own system of politics and economics

为何他们自己的政治和经济制度

is the superior one.

是有优势的。

And instead of shoehorning democracy

与其在世界各地

around the world,

强行推进民主，

perhaps the West should take a leaf

或许西方应从借镜

out of its own history book

自己的历史经验

and remember that it takes a lot of patience

并且铭记：你们今天

in order to develop the models

拥有的模式与体系得以发展 至此

and the systems that you have today.

也是慢慢累积的。

Indeed, the Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer

的确，最高法院法官斯蒂芬 · 布雷耶(Stephen Breyer.)

reminds us that it took the United States

提醒我们

nearly 170 years

从制定宪法

from the time that the Constitution was written

直到达到权利平等

for there to be equal rights in the United States.

花费了170年。

Some people would argue that today

如今有些人会争论说

there is still no equal rights.

权利不平等仍然存在的。

In fact, there are groups who would argue

事实上，仍然有群体会争辩

that they still do not have equal rights under the law.

他们在现有的法律之下没有得到平等权利。

At its very best,

西方模式最棒的地方是，

the Western model speaks for itself.

直截了当地证明了。

It's the model that put food on the table.

它是让下一餐有着落的模式。

It's the refrigerators.

让人有冰箱。

It put a man on the moon.

还把人送上了月球。

But the fact of the matter is,

但事实是，

although people back in the day

虽然人们过去

used to point at the Western countries and say,

经常指着西方国家并且说：

"I want that, I like that,"

"我想要那样的，我喜欢那样的，"

there's now a new person in town

但现在出现了一个新人，

in the form of a country, China.

也就是中国。

Today, generations are looking at China

今天，几代人正看着中国

and saying, "China can produce infrastructure,

并说："中国可以建设基础设施，

China can produce economic growth,

中国可以创造经济增长，

and we like that."

我们喜欢那样的。

Because ultimately, the question before us,

因为，最终摆在我们面前的问题

and the question before

和地球上 70 亿人

seven billion people on the planet

面前的问题都是：

is, how can we create prosperity?

我们如何创造繁荣？

People who care and will pivot towards the model

在乎这点的人

of politics and economics

会理性地

in a very rational way,

以中国的政经模式为基础

to those models that will ensure

倾向于那些可以确保

that they can have better living standards

他们能够在最短时间内

in the shortest period of time.

拥有更高生活水准的模式。

As you leave here today,

在你们今天要离开的时候，

I would like to leave you

我想要留给你们

with a very personal message,

一点个人的见解，

which is what it is that I believe

也就是我相信

we should be doing as individuals,

我们应当作为独立的个人来做事，

and this is really about being open-minded,

也就是要变得思想开明，

open-minded to the fact that our hopes and dreams

对于我们想要为全世界的人们

of creating prosperity for people around the world,

创造繁荣，

creating and meaningfully putting a dent in poverty

并且有意义地为数以亿计的人们

for hundreds of millions of people,

削弱贫困的希望与梦想。

has to be based in being open-minded,

都要从开放的态度做起，

because these systems have good things

因为不同的体系有优点

and they have bad things.

也有缺点。

Just to illustrate,

为了說明这一点，

I went into my annals of myself.

我调查了关于我自己的记录。

That's a picture of me.

这是我的照片。

Awww. (Laughter)

噢。（笑声）

I was born and raised in Zambia in 1969.

我在1969年出生于赞比亚。

At the time of my birth,

在我诞生时，

blacks were not issued birth certificates,

黑人得不到出生证明，

and that law only changed in 1973.

那条法律在1973年才改变。

This is an affidavit from the Zambian government.

这是赞比亚政府的誓章。

I bring this to you to tell you that in 40 years,

我展示这些，是为了告诉你们

I've gone from not being recognized as a human being

这四十年来，我从不被承认

to standing in front of the illustrious TED crowd today

到今天站在TED观众前

to talk to you about my views.

为你们讲述我的观点的经历。

In this vein, we can increase economic growth.

从这一点上讲，我们可以促进经济增长。

We can meaningfully put a dent in poverty.

我们可以卓有成效地削弱贫困。

But also, it's going to require

不仅如此，这也将要求我们

that we look at our assumptions,

正视我们的观念，

assumptions and strictures that we've grown up with

我们从小到大关于

around democracy, around private capitalism,

民主与私人资本主义，

around what creates economic growth

关于什么才能促进经济增长

and reduces poverty and creates freedoms.

并且减少贫困、创造自由的观念与教条。

We might have to tear those books up

我们也许不得不撕掉那些书本

and start to look at other options

来开始正视其它选项

and be open-minded to seek the truth.

并且积极地探求真实。

Ultimately, it's about transforming the world

最终，我们要改变世界

and making it a better place.

并使它成为一个更好的地方。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢你们。

(Applause)

（掌声）