Dambisa Moyo: Is China the new idol for emerging economies?

588,130 views ・ 2013-11-11

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Stjepan Mateljan Recezent: Ivan Stamenković
00:12
"Give me liberty or give me death."
0
12394
3605
"Daj mi slobodu ili mi daj smrt."
00:15
When Patrick Henry, the governor of Virginia,
1
15999
2267
Kad je Patrick Henry, guverner Virginije,
00:18
said these words in 1775,
2
18266
2925
rekao te riječi 1775.,
00:21
he could never have imagined
3
21191
1903
nije nikad mogao zamisliti
00:23
just how much they would come to resonate
4
23094
2065
koliko će one odjekivati
00:25
with American generations to come.
5
25159
3023
kasnijim Američkim generacijama.
00:28
At the time, these words were earmarked
6
28182
2665
U to vrijeme, te su riječi bile izdvojene
00:30
and targeted against the British,
7
30847
2373
i usmjerene protiv Britanaca,
00:33
but over the last 200 years, they've come to embody
8
33220
2899
ali tijekom zadnjih 200 godina, one su počele utjelovljivati
00:36
what many Westerners believe,
9
36119
2688
ono što brojni Zapadnjaci vjeruju,
00:38
that freedom is the most cherished value,
10
38807
3448
da je slobodan najdragocjenija vrijednost,
00:42
and that the best systems of politics and economics
11
42255
2921
te da najbolji politički i ekonomski sustavi
00:45
have freedom embedded in them.
12
45176
2214
imaju u sebe utkani ideju slobode.
00:47
Who could blame them?
13
47390
1794
Tko bi ih mogao kriviti?
00:49
Over the past hundred years, the combination
14
49184
2914
Tijekom zadnjih stotinu godina, kombinacija
00:52
of liberal democracy and private capitalism
15
52098
3043
liberalne demokracije i privatnog kapitalizma
00:55
has helped to catapult the United States
16
55141
2420
je pomogla katapultirati Sjedinjene države
00:57
and Western countries
17
57561
1261
i zapadne zemlje
00:58
to new levels of economic development.
18
58822
2413
do novih razina ekonomskog razvoja.
01:01
In the United States over the past hundred years,
19
61235
2718
U Sjedinjenim državama tijekom zadnjih stotinu godina
01:03
incomes have increased 30 times,
20
63953
2390
prihodi su se povećali 30 puta,
01:06
and hundreds of thousands of people
21
66343
1671
a stotine tisuća ljudi
01:08
have been moved out of poverty.
22
68014
2273
su se makli iz siromaštva.
01:10
Meanwhile, American ingenuity and innovation
23
70287
4033
U međuvremenu, američka je genijalnost i inovativnost
01:14
has helped to spur industrialization
24
74320
3379
pomogla potaknuti industrijalizaciju
01:17
and also helped in the creation and the building
25
77699
2862
te također pomogla u stvaranju i izradi
01:20
of things like household appliances
26
80561
1791
stvari poput kućanskih aparata
01:22
such as refrigerators and televisions,
27
82352
2223
kao frižidera i televizora,
01:24
motor vehicles and even the mobile phones in your pockets.
28
84575
4048
motornih vozila te čak i mobilnih telefona u vašim džepovima.
01:28
It's no surprise, then, that even at the depths
29
88623
2682
Nije čudo, onda, da čak i duboko unutar
01:31
of the private capitalism crisis,
30
91305
2264
krize privatnog kapitalizma,
01:33
President Obama said,
31
93569
1767
predsjednik Obama govori:
01:35
"The question before us is not whether the market
32
95336
2896
"Pitanje pred nama nije je li tržište
01:38
is a force for good or ill.
33
98232
2635
sila dobrog ili lošeg.
01:40
Its power to generate wealth and to expand freedom
34
100867
3223
Njegovoj moći stvaranja bogatstva i širenja slobode
01:44
is unmatched."
35
104090
2078
nema premca."
01:46
Thus, there's understandably
36
106168
1889
Tako, jasno je da postoji
01:48
a deep-seated presumption among Westerners
37
108057
3134
duboko usađena pretpostavka među Zapadnjacima
01:51
that the whole world will decide to adopt
38
111191
2810
da će cijeli svijet odlučiti prigrliti
01:54
private capitalism as the model of economic growth,
39
114001
3084
privatni kapitalizam kao model ekonomskog rasta,
01:57
liberal democracy, and will continue
40
117085
2307
liberalnu demokraciju, te da će nastaviti
01:59
to prioritize political rights over economic rights.
41
119392
4131
držati politička prava nadređena ekonomskim pravima.
02:03
However, to many who live in the emerging markets,
42
123523
2850
Međutim, brojnima koji žive u tržištima u nastajanju
02:06
this is an illusion, and even though
43
126373
2964
to je iluzija, te čak iako je
02:09
the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,
44
129337
2107
Opća deklaracija o ljudskim pravima,
02:11
which was signed in 1948,
45
131444
2271
koja je potpisana 1948.,
02:13
was unanimously adopted,
46
133715
2295
bila jednoglasno usvojena,
02:16
what it did was to mask a schism
47
136010
2691
ona je tek prikrila rascjep
02:18
that has emerged between developed and developing countries,
48
138701
3506
koji je nastao između razvijenih zemalja i onih u razvoju,
02:22
and the ideological beliefs
49
142224
2081
te glede ideoloških uvjerenja
02:24
between political and economic rights.
50
144305
3647
između političkih i ekonomskih prava.
02:27
This schism has only grown wider.
51
147952
3537
Taj se rascjep samo širio.
02:31
Today, many people who live in the emerging markets,
52
151489
2570
Danas, brojni ljudi koji žive u tržištima u nastajanju,
02:34
where 90 percent of the world's population lives,
53
154059
2913
gdje živi 90 posto svjetske populacije,
02:36
believe that the Western obsession
54
156972
2028
vjeruje da je Zapadna opsjednutost
02:39
with political rights is beside the point,
55
159000
2627
političkim pravima pucanj u prazno,
02:41
and what is actually important
56
161627
1978
te da je ono što je zbilja važno
02:43
is delivering on food, shelter,
57
163605
2221
kako dostaviti hranu, utočište,
02:45
education and healthcare.
58
165826
2098
obrazovanje i zdravstvenu skrb.
02:47
"Give me liberty or give me death"
59
167924
2416
"Daj mi slobodu ili mi daj smrt."
02:50
is all well and good if you can afford it,
60
170340
2763
je lijepo i krasno ako si to možete priuštti,
02:53
but if you're living on less than one dollar a day,
61
173103
2963
ali ako živite na manje od dolara na dan,
02:56
you're far too busy trying to survive
62
176066
1968
previše ste zaposleni pokušavajući preživjeti
02:58
and to provide for your family
63
178034
1816
i priskrbiti za svoju obitelj
02:59
than to spend your time going around
64
179850
1531
da bi trošili vrijeme idući okolo
03:01
trying to proclaim and defend democracy.
65
181381
3011
pokušavajući proglasiti i obraniti demokraciju.
03:04
Now, I know many people in this room
66
184392
1847
Sad, znam da brojni ljudi u ovoj sobi
03:06
and around the world will think,
67
186239
2188
te oko svijeta misle:
03:08
"Well actually, this is hard to grasp,"
68
188427
2983
"Pa zapravo, ovo je teško dokučiti,"
03:11
because private capitalism and liberal democracy
69
191410
3227
jer se privatni kapitalizam i liberalna demokracija
03:14
are held sacrosanct.
70
194637
2266
drže nepovredivim svetinjama.
03:16
But I ask you today, what would you do
71
196903
2369
Ali pitam vas sad, što biste učinili
03:19
if you had to choose?
72
199272
1811
ako biste morali birati?
03:21
What if you had to choose
73
201083
1814
Što ako biste morali birati
03:22
between a roof over your head
74
202897
2463
između krova nad glavom
03:25
and the right to vote?
75
205360
1677
i glasačkog prava?
03:27
Over the last 10 years,
76
207037
1593
Tijekom zadnjih 10 godina
03:28
I've had the privilege to travel to over 60 countries,
77
208630
3780
imala sam povlasticu putovati u preko 60 zemalja,
03:32
many of them in the emerging markets,
78
212410
2205
brojne unutar tržišta u nastajanju,
03:34
in Latin America, Asia,
79
214615
2328
u Latinskoj Americi, Aziji,
03:36
and my own continent of Africa.
80
216943
2682
te mom vlastitom kontinentu Africi.
03:39
I've met with presidents, dissidents,
81
219625
2640
Sretala sam se sa predsjednicima, disidentima,
03:42
policymakers, lawyers, teachers,
82
222265
2368
stvarateljima politika, odvjetnicima, učiteljima,
03:44
doctors and the man on the street,
83
224633
2303
doktorima i ljudima po ulici,
03:46
and through these conversations,
84
226936
1683
te mi je kroz te razgovore
03:48
it's become clear to me
85
228619
1800
postalo jasno
03:50
that many people in the emerging markets
86
230419
1928
da brojni ljudi iz tržišta u nastajanju
03:52
believe that there's actually a split occurring
87
232347
3209
vjeruju da se zapravo pojavljuje rascjep
03:55
between what people believe ideologically
88
235556
2766
između onog što ljudi ideološki vjeruju
03:58
in terms of politics and economics in the West
89
238322
2686
glede politike i ekonomije na Zapadu
04:01
and that which people believe in the rest of the world.
90
241008
2884
te onog što ljudi vjeruju u ostatku svijeta.
04:03
Now, don't get me wrong.
91
243892
1871
Sad, nemojte me shvatiti krivo.
04:05
I'm not saying people in the emerging markets
92
245763
1460
Ne govorim da ljudi iz tržišta u nastajanju
04:07
don't understand democracy,
93
247223
2091
ne razumiju demokraciju,
04:09
nor am I saying that they wouldn't ideally
94
249314
1909
niti ne govorim da im se idealno
04:11
like to pick their presidents or their leaders.
95
251223
2485
ne bi sviđalo birati svoje predsjednike ili vođe.
04:13
Of course they would.
96
253708
1555
Naravno da bi.
04:15
However, I am saying that on balance,
97
255263
3021
Međutim, govorim da kad se sve svede,
04:18
they worry more about
98
258284
1582
više se brinu
04:19
where their living standard improvements are going to come from,
99
259866
3031
otkud će im doći unapređenja životnog standarda
04:22
and how it is their governments can deliver for them,
100
262897
2283
te kako im ih njihove vlasti mogu dostaviti,
04:25
than whether or not the government
101
265180
1905
nego hoće li ili neće te vlasti
04:27
was elected by democracy.
102
267085
2940
biti izabrane demokratski.
04:30
The fact of the matter
103
270025
2089
Činjenica od značaja
04:32
is that this has become a very poignant question
104
272114
2465
je kako je ovo postalo vrlo pronicljvo pitanje
04:34
because there is for the first time in a long time
105
274579
2333
budući po prvi put nakon dugo vremena postoji
04:36
a real challenge to the Western ideological systems
106
276912
3570
pravi izazov Zapadnim ideološkim sustavima
04:40
of politics and economics,
107
280482
2154
politike i ekonomije,
04:42
and this is a system that is embodied by China.
108
282636
3073
a to je sustav utjelovljen u Kini.
04:45
And rather than have private capitalism, they have state capitalism.
109
285709
3962
Radije nego privatni kapitalizam, imaju državni kapitalizam.
04:49
Instead of liberal democracy, they have de-prioritized the democratic system.
110
289687
4272
Umjesto liberalne demokracije, podredili su demokratsku sustav
04:53
And they have also decided to prioritize
111
293959
2364
te su također odlučili podići
04:56
economic rights over political rights.
112
296323
3657
ekonomska prava iznad političkih.
04:59
I put it to you today that it is this system
113
299980
2849
Prenosim vam danas da je taj sustav
05:02
that is embodied by China
114
302829
1845
koji je utjelovljen u Kini
05:04
that is gathering momentum amongst people
115
304674
1960
koji lovi zamah među ljudima
05:06
in the emerging markets as the system to follow,
116
306634
3088
u tržištima u nastajanju kao sustav koji valja slijediti,
05:09
because they believe increasingly
117
309722
2020
jer sve više vjeruju
05:11
that it is the system
118
311742
1675
kako je to sustav
05:13
that will promise the best and fastest improvements
119
313417
3401
koji im obećava najbolja i najbrža unapređenja
05:16
in living standards in the shortest period of time.
120
316818
3611
životnog standarda u najkraćem vremenskom roku.
05:20
If you will indulge me, I will spend a few moments
121
320429
2579
Ako mi dopustite, potrošit ću nekoliko trenutaka
05:23
explaining to you first
122
323008
1822
objašnjavajući vam prvo
05:24
why economically they've come to this belief.
123
324830
4030
zašto su ekonomski došli do tog uvjerenja.
05:28
First of all, it's China's economic performance
124
328860
2826
Prije svega, to je ekonomska izvedba Kine
05:31
over the past 30 years.
125
331686
2042
tijekom zadnjih 30 godina.
05:33
She's been able to produce record economic growth
126
333728
2720
Bila je u stanju stvoriti rekordan ekonomski rast
05:36
and meaningfully move many people out of poverty,
127
336448
3635
i smisleno izvući puno ljudi iz siromaštva,
05:40
specifically putting a meaningful dent in poverty
128
340083
3179
pogotovo smisleno praveći ulupljenje u siromaštvu
05:43
by moving over 300 million people
129
343262
2814
izvlačenjem preko 300 milijuna ljudi
05:46
out of indigence.
130
346076
3258
iz neimaštine.
05:49
It's not just in economics,
131
349334
2514
Nije riječ samo u ekonomiji,
05:51
but it's also in terms of living standards.
132
351848
2497
već također i u životnom standardu.
05:54
We see that in China, 28 percent of people
133
354345
2844
Vidimo da je u Kini 28 posto ljudi
05:57
had secondary school access.
134
357189
1823
imalo pristup sekundarnoj školi.
05:59
Today, it's closer to 82 percent.
135
359012
2377
Danas, ta je brojka bliža 82 posto.
06:01
So in its totality, economic improvement
136
361389
2595
Tako da je u svojoj cjelokupnosti, ekonomski napredak
06:03
has been quite significant.
137
363984
2696
bio poprilično značajan.
06:06
Second, China has been able
138
366680
3036
Drugo, Kini je bilo moguće
06:09
to meaningfully improve its income inequality
139
369716
3136
smisleno poboljšati razlike u prihodima
06:12
without changing the political construct.
140
372852
2665
bez mijenjanja političke konstrukcije.
06:15
Today, the United States and China
141
375517
2430
Danas, Sjedinjene države i Kina
06:17
are the two leading economies in the world.
142
377947
2526
su dvije vodeće svjetske ekonomije.
06:20
They have vastly different political systems
143
380473
2249
Imaju vrlo različite političke sustave
06:22
and different economic systems,
144
382722
2322
te različite ekonomske sustave,
06:25
one with private capitalism,
145
385044
1470
jedan s privatnim kapitalizmom,
06:26
another one broadly with state capitalism.
146
386514
2439
drugi ugrubo sa državnim kapitalizmom.
06:28
However, these two countries
147
388953
2073
Međutim, ove dvije zemlje
06:31
have the identical GINI Coefficient,
148
391026
2107
imaju identičan GINI koeficijent,
06:33
which is a measure of income equality.
149
393133
2547
koji je mjera jednakosti prihoda.
06:35
Perhaps what is more disturbing
150
395680
2232
Možda ono što je više uznemirujuće
06:37
is that China's income equality
151
397912
2094
je kako je jednakost prihoda u Kini
06:40
has been improving in recent times,
152
400006
2321
bila napredovala u novije vrijeme,
06:42
whereas that of the United States
153
402327
1617
dok se ona Sjedinjenih država
06:43
has been declining.
154
403944
3063
bila smanjivala.
06:47
Thirdly, people in the emerging markets
155
407007
2556
Treće, ljudi u tržištima u nastajanju
06:49
look at China's amazing and legendary
156
409563
2394
gledaju u Kinino zapanjujuće i legendarno
06:51
infrastructure rollout.
157
411957
2326
stvaranje infrastrukture.
06:54
This is not just about China
158
414283
1659
Ovdje nije samo riječ o Kini
06:55
building roads and ports and railways
159
415942
2360
koja gradi ceste i luke i željeznice
06:58
in her own country --
160
418302
1436
u vlastitoj zemlji --
06:59
she's been able to build 85,000 kilometers
161
419738
3088
umjela je sagraditi 85.000 kilometara
07:02
of road network in China
162
422826
1591
cestovne mreže u Kini
07:04
and surpass that of the United States --
163
424417
2948
te prestići ono Sjedinjenih država --
07:07
but even if you look to places like Africa,
164
427365
2811
ali čak i ako gledate mjesta poput Afrike,
07:10
China has been able to help tar the distance
165
430176
3057
Kina je bila u stanju pomoći okatraniti udaljenost
07:13
of Cape Town to Cairo,
166
433233
1654
od Cape Towna do Caira,
07:14
which is 9,000 miles,
167
434887
1625
koja je 9.000 milja,
07:16
or three times the distance of New York to California.
168
436512
3911
ili trostruka udaljenost od New Yorka do Kalifornije.
07:20
Now this is something that people can see and point to.
169
440423
4440
Sad to je nešto što ljudi mogu vidjeti i na što mogu ukazivati.
07:24
Perhaps it's no surprise
170
444863
1682
Možda nije iznenađenje
07:26
that in a 2007 Pew survey, when surveyed,
171
446545
3721
kako su u 2007 Pew pregledu, kad su ispitani,
07:30
Africans in 10 countries said
172
450266
1868
Afrikanci u 10 zemalja rekli
07:32
they thought that the Chinese were doing
173
452134
1668
kako misle da Kinezi rade
07:33
amazing things to improve their livelihoods
174
453802
1894
zapanjujuće stvari kako bi unaprijedili njihove životne uvjete
07:35
by wide margins, by as much as 98 percent.
175
455696
4498
u velikim prednostima, čak do 98 posto.
07:40
Finally, China is also providing innovative solutions
176
460194
4520
Konačno, Kina donosi inovativna rješenja
07:44
to age-old social problems that the world faces.
177
464714
3371
starim društvenim problemima koji more svijet.
07:48
If you travel to Mogadishu, Mexico City or Mumbai,
178
468085
3268
Ako otputujete u Mogadishu, Mexico City ili Mumbai,
07:51
you find that dilapidated infrastructure and logistics
179
471353
3252
vidjet ćete kako trošna infrastruktura i logistika
07:54
continue to be a stumbling block
180
474605
2227
nastavlja biti kamen spoticanja
07:56
to the delivery of medicine and healthcare
181
476832
2101
dostavljanju medicinske i zdravstvene skrbi
07:58
in the rural areas.
182
478933
1870
u ruralna područja.
08:00
However, through a network of state-owned enterprises,
183
480803
2878
Međutim, kroz mrežu poduzeća u državnom vlasništvu,
08:03
the Chinese have been able to go into these rural areas,
184
483681
2896
Kinezi su uspjeli otići u ta ruralna područja,
08:06
using their companies
185
486577
1490
koristeći svoje firme
08:08
to help deliver on these healthcare solutions.
186
488067
3272
kako bi pomogli dostavu tih zdravstvenih rješenja.
08:11
Ladies and gentlemen, it's no surprise
187
491339
2206
Dame i gospodo, nije iznenađenje
08:13
that around the world, people are pointing at what China is doing and saying,
188
493545
3250
kako širom svijeta ljudi pokazuju na to što Kina radi i govore:
08:16
"I like that. I want that.
189
496795
2142
"Sviđa mi se to. Želim to."
08:18
I want to be able to do what China's doing.
190
498937
2194
"Želim biti u mogućnosti da činim ono što Kina čini."
08:21
That is the system that seems to work."
191
501131
2770
"To je sustav za koji se čini kako radi."
08:23
I'm here to also tell you
192
503901
1673
Također sam ovdje da vam kažem
08:25
that there are lots of shifts occurring
193
505574
1747
kako se pojavljuje puno promjena
08:27
around what China is doing
194
507321
1960
oko onog što Kina čini
08:29
in the democratic stance.
195
509281
2075
u stavu prema demokraciji.
08:31
In particular, there is growing doubt
196
511356
2665
Posebno, postoji rastuća sumnja
08:34
among people in the emerging markets,
197
514021
2102
među ljudima tržišta u nastajanju,
08:36
when people now believe that democracy
198
516123
1707
gdje ljudi sad vjeruju kako demokraciju
08:37
is no longer to be viewed
199
517830
2284
više nije potrebno gledati
08:40
as a prerequisite for economic growth.
200
520114
3483
kao preduvjet za ekonomski rast.
08:43
In fact, countries like Taiwan, Singapore, Chile,
201
523597
4241
Zapravo, zemlje poput Taiwana, Singapura, Čilea,
08:47
not just China, have shown that actually,
202
527838
2908
ne samo Kina, su pokazale da zapravo,
08:50
it's economic growth that is a prerequisite
203
530746
2686
ekonomski rast je preduvjet
08:53
for democracy.
204
533432
1764
za demokraciju.
08:55
In a recent study, the evidence has shown
205
535196
3246
U nedavnoj studiji, dokazi su pokazali
08:58
that income is the greatest determinant
206
538442
2498
kako je prihod najveća odrednica
09:00
of how long a democracy can last.
207
540940
2748
koliko dugo demokracija može trajati.
09:03
The study found that if your per capita income
208
543688
2733
Studija je pokazala da ako je vaš prihod po glavi
09:06
is about 1,000 dollars a year,
209
546421
2212
oko 1.000 dolara godišnje,
09:08
your democracy will last about eight and a half years.
210
548633
2998
vaša će demokracija trajati oko osam i pol godina.
09:11
If your per capita income is between
211
551631
1718
Ako je vaš prihod po glavi između
09:13
2,000 and 4,000 dollars per year,
212
553349
2400
2.000 i 4.000 dolara godišnje,
09:15
then you're likely to only get 33 years of democracy.
213
555749
3042
onda je vjerojatno da ćete imati samo 33 godina demokracije.
09:18
And only if your per capita income
214
558791
1824
A samo ako je vaš prihod po glavi
09:20
is above 6,000 dollars a year
215
560615
2131
iznad 6.000 dolara godišnje
09:22
will you have democracy come hell or high water.
216
562746
3744
imati ćete demokraciju bez obzira na sve nedaće.
09:26
What this is telling us
217
566490
1712
Što nam to govori
09:28
is that we need to first establish a middle class
218
568202
2573
jest kako prvo trebamo uspostaviti srednju klasu
09:30
that is able to hold the government accountable.
219
570775
3117
koja je sposobna držati vlast odgovornom.
09:33
But perhaps it's also telling us
220
573892
2375
Ali možda nam također govori
09:36
that we should be worried about going
221
576267
1582
kako bi trebali biti zabrinuti glede putovanja
09:37
around the world and shoehorning democracy,
222
577849
2910
širom svijeta i uvođenja demokracije,
09:40
because ultimately we run the risk
223
580759
1810
stoga što u konačnici riskiramo
09:42
of ending up with illiberal democracies,
224
582569
2130
završetak s neslobodnim demokracijama,
09:44
democracies that in some sense
225
584699
2061
demokracijama koje bi u nekim pogledima
09:46
could be worse than the authoritarian governments
226
586760
2167
mogle biti gore od autoritarnih vlasti
09:48
that they seek to replace.
227
588927
3687
koje žele zamijeniti.
09:52
The evidence around illiberal democracies
228
592614
2266
Dokazi oko neslobodnih demokracija
09:54
is quite depressing.
229
594880
1820
su poprilično depresivni.
09:56
Freedom House finds that although 50 percent
230
596700
2446
Freedom House pronalazi da iako je 50 posto
09:59
of the world's countries today are democratic,
231
599146
3157
svjetskih zemalja danas demokratskih,
10:02
70 percent of those countries are illiberal
232
602303
2706
70 posto tih zemalja su neslobodne
10:05
in the sense that people don't have free speech
233
605009
2353
u smislu da ljudi nemaju slobodu govora
10:07
or freedom of movement.
234
607362
2745
ili slobodu kretanja.
10:10
But also, we're finding from Freedom House
235
610107
2319
Ali također, vidimo u istraživanjima Freedom Housea
10:12
in a study that they published last year
236
612426
2121
u studiji koju su objavili prošle godine
10:14
that freedom has been on the decline
237
614547
2115
da je sloboda bila u opadanju
10:16
every year for the past seven years.
238
616662
2572
svaku godinu u zadnjih sedam godina.
10:19
What this says
239
619234
1784
Što to govori
10:21
is that for people like me
240
621018
1338
je da za ljude poput mene
10:22
who care about liberal democracy,
241
622356
2610
kojima je stalo do liberalne demokracije,
10:24
is we've got to find a more sustainable way
242
624966
2347
moramo naći održiviji način
10:27
of ensuring that we have a sustainable form
243
627313
2345
osiguravanja da imamo održiv oblik
10:29
of democracy in a liberal way,
244
629658
2201
demokracije na liberalan način,
10:31
and that has its roots in economics.
245
631859
3000
a to ima svoje korijene u ekonomiji.
10:34
But it also says that as China moves
246
634859
2929
Ali to također govori kako dok se Kina kreće
10:37
toward being the largest economy in the world,
247
637788
2532
prema poziciji najveće svjetske ekonomije,
10:40
something that is expected to happen
248
640320
2021
nečega što se očekuje da će se dogodit
10:42
by experts in 2016,
249
642341
2075
kažu stručnjaci u 2016.,
10:44
that this schism between the political
250
644416
2270
da će se taj rascjep između političkih
10:46
and economic ideologies of the West and the rest
251
646686
3362
i ekonomskih ideologija Zapada i ostalih
10:50
is likely to widen.
252
650048
2931
vjerojatno proširiti.
10:52
What might that world look like?
253
652979
2555
Na što bi taj svijet mogao nalikovati?
10:55
Well, the world could look like
254
655534
1562
Pa, svijet bi mogao nalikovati
10:57
more state involvement and state capitalism;
255
657096
3265
na više državnog uplitanja i državnog kapitalizma;
11:00
greater protectionisms of nation-states;
256
660361
2839
većeg protekcionizma u nacionalnih država;
11:03
but also, as I just pointed out a moment ago,
257
663200
2509
ali također, kako sam ukazala maloprije,
11:05
ever-declining political rights
258
665709
2167
stalnog pada političkih prava
11:07
and individual rights.
259
667876
2061
i prava pojedinca.
11:09
The question that is left for us in general
260
669937
2762
Pitanje koje je općenito pred nama
11:12
is, what then should the West be doing?
261
672699
3116
jest, što bi onda Zapad trebao činiti?
11:15
And I suggest that they have two options.
262
675815
2705
A ja sugeriram da imaju dvije opcije.
11:18
The West can either compete or cooperate.
263
678520
4417
Zapad se može ili natjecati ili surađivati.
11:22
If the West chooses to compete with the Chinese model,
264
682937
3188
Ako se Zapad odluči natjecati sa Kineskim modelom,
11:26
and in effect go around the world
265
686125
2007
dakle ići oko svijeta
11:28
and continue to try and push an agenda
266
688132
2327
te nastaviti pokušavati progurati agendu
11:30
of private capitalism and liberal democracy,
267
690459
3040
privatnog kapitalizma i liberalne demokracije,
11:33
this is basically going against headwinds,
268
693499
2656
to bi bilo čisto kretanje protiv struje,
11:36
but it also would be a natural stance
269
696155
2024
ali to bi također bio prirodan stav
11:38
for the West to take
270
698179
1461
koji bi Zapad mogao zauzeti
11:39
because in many ways it is the antithesis
271
699640
2033
stoga što je to na puno načina antiteza
11:41
of the Chinese model
272
701673
2147
KIneskog modela
11:43
of de-prioritizing democracy, and state capitalism.
273
703820
4128
podređivanja demokracije, i državnog kapitalizma.
11:47
Now the fact of the matter is,
274
707948
1779
Sad, činjenica jest
11:49
if the West decides to compete,
275
709727
1958
ako se Zapad odluči natjecati,
11:51
it will create a wider schism.
276
711685
3398
to će stvoriti širi rascjep.
11:55
The other option is for the West to cooperate,
277
715083
2853
Druga je mogućnost da Zapad surađuje,
11:57
and by cooperating I mean
278
717936
1594
a pod suradnjom mislim na
11:59
giving the emerging market countries the flexibility
279
719530
3510
davanje tržištima u nastajanju fleksibilnost
12:03
to figure out in an organic way
280
723040
2047
da shvate na organski način
12:05
what political and economic system
281
725087
1762
koji politički i ekonomski sustav
12:06
works best for them.
282
726849
1693
za njih radi najbolje.
12:08
Now I'm sure some of you in the room
283
728542
1730
Sad, sigurna sam da će neki od vas u sobi
12:10
will be thinking, well, this is like ceding to China,
284
730272
2874
razmišljati, dobro, ovo je poput ustupanja mjesta Kini,
12:13
and this is a way, in other words,
285
733146
2071
a ovo je put, drugim riječima,
12:15
for the West to take a back seat.
286
735217
1912
kojim će Zapad završiti na zadnjem sjedištu.
12:17
But I put it to you
287
737129
1455
Ali natuknula bih vam
12:18
that if the United States and European countries
288
738584
2350
da ako Sjedinjene države i Europske zemlje
12:20
want to remain globally influential,
289
740934
2651
žele ostati globalno utjecajne,
12:23
they may have to consider cooperating
290
743585
1870
mogle bi razmisliti o suradnji
12:25
in the short term in order to compete,
291
745455
2549
u kratkom roku da bi se mogli natjecati kasnije,
12:28
and by that, they might have to focus
292
748004
2243
a pod tim, mogli bi se fokusirati
12:30
more aggressively on economic outcomes
293
750247
3235
agresivnije na ekonomske rezultate
12:33
to help create the middle class
294
753482
1709
da pomognu stvoriti srednju klasu
12:35
and therefore be able to hold government accountable
295
755191
2671
i time biti u mogućnosti držati vlast odgovornom
12:37
and create the democracies that we really want.
296
757862
4027
te stvoriti demokracije koje zbilja želimo.
12:41
The fact of the matter is that
297
761889
2589
Činjenica je kako
12:44
instead of going around the world
298
764478
1903
umjesto da ide oko svijeta
12:46
and haranguing countries for engaging with China,
299
766381
3487
i drži govore zemljama radi surađivanja s Kinom,
12:49
the West should be encouraging its own businesses
300
769868
2960
Zapad bi trebao ohrabrivati vlastite tvrtke
12:52
to trade and invest in these regions.
301
772828
2499
da trguju i investiraju u te regije.
12:55
Instead of criticizing China for bad behavior,
302
775327
4252
Umjesto kritiziranja Kine za loše ponašanje,
12:59
the West should be showing how it is
303
779579
2600
Zapad bi trebao pokazivati po čemu je to
13:02
that their own system of politics and economics
304
782179
2387
njihov vlastiti sustav politike i ekonomije
13:04
is the superior one.
305
784566
2150
onaj koji je superioran.
13:06
And instead of shoehorning democracy
306
786716
2020
A umjesto nametanja demokracije
13:08
around the world,
307
788736
1491
širom svijeta,
13:10
perhaps the West should take a leaf
308
790227
1275
možda bi Zapad trebao počitati list
13:11
out of its own history book
309
791502
1852
iz vlastite knjige povijesti
13:13
and remember that it takes a lot of patience
310
793354
2850
te zapamtiti da treba puno strpljenja
13:16
in order to develop the models
311
796204
1570
da bi se razvili modeli
13:17
and the systems that you have today.
312
797774
2333
i sustavi koje imate danas.
13:20
Indeed, the Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer
313
800107
3472
Zbilja, sudac vrhovnog suda Stephen Breyer
13:23
reminds us that it took the United States
314
803579
2629
podsjeća nas da je Sjedinjenim državama trebalo
13:26
nearly 170 years
315
806208
2646
gotovo 170 godina
13:28
from the time that the Constitution was written
316
808854
2669
od vremena kad je Ustav napisan
13:31
for there to be equal rights in the United States.
317
811523
2960
do uspostave jednakih prava u Sjedinjenim državama.
13:34
Some people would argue that today
318
814483
1362
Neki ljudi bi tvrdili da čak ni danas
13:35
there is still no equal rights.
319
815845
1514
još uvijek nema jednakih prava.
13:37
In fact, there are groups who would argue
320
817359
1846
Zapravo, postoje grupe koje bi tvrdile
13:39
that they still do not have equal rights under the law.
321
819205
5328
da još uvijek nemaju jednaka prava pred zakonom.
13:44
At its very best,
322
824533
1582
U svom najboljem svjetlu
13:46
the Western model speaks for itself.
323
826115
2252
Zapadni model govori sam za sebe.
13:48
It's the model that put food on the table.
324
828367
2161
To je model koji donosi hranu u kuću.
13:50
It's the refrigerators.
325
830528
1591
To su frižideri.
13:52
It put a man on the moon.
326
832119
2032
Spustio je čovjeka na Mjesec.
13:54
But the fact of the matter is,
327
834151
1790
Ali činjenica je,
13:55
although people back in the day
328
835941
1650
iako su ljudi ranije
13:57
used to point at the Western countries and say,
329
837591
2066
običavali pokazivati na Zapadne zemlje i govoriti:
13:59
"I want that, I like that,"
330
839657
2043
"Želim to, sviđa mi se to."
14:01
there's now a new person in town
331
841700
2159
u gradu je sada nova osoba
14:03
in the form of a country, China.
332
843859
2439
u obliku zemlje, Kine.
14:06
Today, generations are looking at China
333
846298
2086
Danas, generacije gledaju u Kinu
14:08
and saying, "China can produce infrastructure,
334
848384
2640
i govore: "Kina može proizvesti infrastrukturu,"
14:11
China can produce economic growth,
335
851024
2116
"Kina može proizvesti ekonomski rast,"
14:13
and we like that."
336
853140
1568
"i to nam se sviđa."
14:14
Because ultimately, the question before us,
337
854708
2714
Jer u krajnjoj liniji, pitanje pred nama,
14:17
and the question before
338
857422
1856
i pitanje pred
14:19
seven billion people on the planet
339
859278
1705
sedam milijardi ljudi na planetu
14:20
is, how can we create prosperity?
340
860983
3100
jest, kako možemo stvoriti blagostanje?
14:24
People who care and will pivot towards the model
341
864083
2915
Ljudi kojima je stalo i koji će se okrenuti modelu
14:26
of politics and economics
342
866998
1525
politike i ekonomije
14:28
in a very rational way,
343
868523
1567
na vrlo razuman način,
14:30
to those models that will ensure
344
870090
2465
ka onim modelima koji će osigurati
14:32
that they can have better living standards
345
872555
1981
da mogu imati bolje životne standarde
14:34
in the shortest period of time.
346
874536
2623
u najkraćem vemenskom roku.
14:37
As you leave here today,
347
877159
1711
Dok danas napuštate ovo mjesto,
14:38
I would like to leave you
348
878870
1405
voljela bih napustiti vas
14:40
with a very personal message,
349
880275
1653
s vrlo osobnom porukom,
14:41
which is what it is that I believe
350
881928
2086
koja je ono za što vjerujem
14:44
we should be doing as individuals,
351
884014
2404
da bismo trebali raditi kao pojedinci,
14:46
and this is really about being open-minded,
352
886418
3369
i riječ je zbilja o bivanju otvorenih nazora,
14:49
open-minded to the fact that our hopes and dreams
353
889787
3339
otvorenih za činjenicu da naše nade i snovi
14:53
of creating prosperity for people around the world,
354
893126
3235
o stvaranju blagostanja za ljude širom svijeta,
14:56
creating and meaningfully putting a dent in poverty
355
896361
2924
smislenom pravljenju ulupljenja u siromaštvu
14:59
for hundreds of millions of people,
356
899285
1676
stotina milijuna ljudi,
15:00
has to be based in being open-minded,
357
900961
2784
moraju biti temeljeni na otvorenosti nazora,
15:03
because these systems have good things
358
903745
2227
jer ti sustavi imaju dobre stvari
15:05
and they have bad things.
359
905972
2477
i imaju loše stvari.
15:08
Just to illustrate,
360
908449
1709
Samo da ilustriram,
15:10
I went into my annals of myself.
361
910158
2486
otišla sam u vlastitu prošlost.
15:12
That's a picture of me.
362
912644
1782
Ovo je moja slika.
15:14
Awww. (Laughter)
363
914426
2240
Awww. (Smijeh)
15:16
I was born and raised in Zambia in 1969.
364
916666
4226
Rođena sam i othranjena u Zambiji 1969.
15:20
At the time of my birth,
365
920892
1947
U vrijeme mog rođenja,
15:22
blacks were not issued birth certificates,
366
922839
2082
crncima nisu izdavali rodne listove,
15:24
and that law only changed in 1973.
367
924921
2344
a taj se zakon promijenio tek 1973.
15:27
This is an affidavit from the Zambian government.
368
927265
3145
Ovo je pismena izjava Zambijske vlade.
15:30
I bring this to you to tell you that in 40 years,
369
930410
2452
Prikazujem je da vam kaže kako sam u 40 godina
15:32
I've gone from not being recognized as a human being
370
932862
2885
prešla put od neprepoznavanja kao ljudskog bića
15:35
to standing in front of the illustrious TED crowd today
371
935747
2947
da stajanja ispred slavne ekipe iz TED-a danas
15:38
to talk to you about my views.
372
938694
2578
da bih vam pričala o svojim pogledima.
15:41
In this vein, we can increase economic growth.
373
941272
3724
Na isti način, možemo povećati ekonomski rast.
15:44
We can meaningfully put a dent in poverty.
374
944996
3417
Možemo smisleno napraviti ulupljenje u siromaštvu.
15:48
But also, it's going to require
375
948413
2201
Ali također, biti će potrebno
15:50
that we look at our assumptions,
376
950614
1994
da pregledamo svoje pretpostavke,
15:52
assumptions and strictures that we've grown up with
377
952608
2227
pretpostavke i ograničenosti s kojima smo odrasli
15:54
around democracy, around private capitalism,
378
954835
1979
glede demokracije, glede privatnog kapitalizma,
15:56
around what creates economic growth
379
956814
1935
glede razloga što uzrokuju ekonomski rast
15:58
and reduces poverty and creates freedoms.
380
958749
2632
smanjenje siromaštva i stvaraju slobode.
16:01
We might have to tear those books up
381
961381
1877
Možda bi trebali podrapati te računice
16:03
and start to look at other options
382
963258
2571
te početi gledati na druge mogućnosti
16:05
and be open-minded to seek the truth.
383
965829
2857
i biti otvorenih nazora u potrazi za istinom.
16:08
Ultimately, it's about transforming the world
384
968686
2247
U krajnjoj liniji, riječ je o mijenjanju svijeta
16:10
and making it a better place.
385
970933
1686
i stvaranju od njega boljeg mjesta.
16:12
Thank you very much.
386
972619
2218
Hvala vam.
16:14
(Applause)
387
974837
3600
(Pljesak)
O ovoj web stranici

Ova stranica će vas upoznati s YouTube videozapisima koji su korisni za učenje engleskog jezika. Vidjet ćete lekcije engleskog koje vode vrhunski profesori iz cijelog svijeta. Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove prikazane na svakoj video stranici da biste reproducirali video s tog mjesta. Titlovi se pomiču sinkronizirano s reprodukcijom videozapisa. Ako imate bilo kakvih komentara ili zahtjeva, obratite nam se putem ovog obrasca za kontakt.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7