Nandan Nilekani's ideas for India's future

翻译人员: Sonia WANG 校对人员: Tony Yet

Let me talk about India

下面我来介绍一下印度

through the evolution of ideas.

以及印度人们观念的演变

Now I believe this is an interesting way of looking at it

我觉得这是个很有意思的角度

because in every society, especially an open democratic society,

因为在每个社会中，尤其是开放的民主社会里

it's only when ideas take root that things change.

只有观念树立之后，现实才能得以改变

Slowly ideas lead to ideology,

观念逐渐演变成意识形态

lead to policies that lead to actions.

然后出台相应政策，并最终付诸实践

In 1930 this country went through a Great Depression,

1930年，美国经历大萧条时期

which led to all the ideas of the state and social security,

产生了有关国家社会安全问题的各种观点

and all the other things that happened in Roosevelt's time.

并促进了罗斯福执政期间其他事件的发生

In the 1980s we had the Reagan revolution, which lead to deregulation.

20世纪80年代的里根革命，放松了政府管制

And today, after the global economic crisis,

如今，全球经济危机的爆发

there was a whole new set of rules

引发了新规则的产生

about how the state should intervene.

重新探讨国家应该如何执政

So ideas change states.

所以说，观念改变国家

And I looked at India and said,

我们再来看印度

really there are four kinds of ideas

四种观念对印度

which really make an impact on India.

产生着巨大的影响

The first, to my mind,

第一种，在我看来

is what I call as "the ideas that have arrived."

是被我称为“已发生”的观念

These ideas have brought together something

这些观念产生的影响

which has made India happen the way it is today.

造就了今天的印度

The second set of ideas I call "ideas in progress."

第二种观念，我把它们称为“进行中”的观念

Those are ideas which have been accepted

这些观念已经被人们接受

but not implemented yet.

但尚未付诸实践

The third set of ideas are what I call as

第三种观念，我把它们称为

"ideas that we argue about" --

“探讨中”的观念

those are ideas where we have a fight,

我们对这些观念进行争论

an ideological battle about how to do things.

争论在现实中是否应当实施这些观念

And the fourth thing, which I believe is most important, is

第四种观念，也是我认为最重要的观念

"the ideas that we need to anticipate."

是“我们有必要预先考虑到”的观念

Because when you are a developing country

因为作为一个发展中国家

in the world where you can see the problems that other countries are having,

我们看着世界其他国家正在面临的问题

you can actually anticipate

由此可以事先预见到

what that did and do things very differently.

问题将产生的后果 并调整工作方式来避免这些问题

Now in India's case I believe there are six ideas

对印度来说，我认为有六种观念

which are responsible for where it has come today.

造就了今天的印度

The first is really the notion of people.

第一个是对“人民”这一概念的理解

In the '60s and '70s

在六七十年代

we thought of people as a burden.

“人民”对我们来说是一种压力

We thought of people as a liability.

是一种负担

Today we talk of people as an asset.

如今，“人民”对我们来说是一种资本

We talk of people as human capital.

“人民”对我们来说是一种人力资源

And I believe this change in the mindset,

我相信，这种心态上的转变

of looking at people as something of a burden

这种“人民”由负担

to human capital,

向人力资源的转变

has been one of the fundamental changes in the Indian mindset.

可以说是印度人民思想上最根本的改变

And this change in thinking of human capital

人力资源这一概念的转变

is linked to the fact

体现在现实生活中

that India is going through a demographic dividend.

就是印度正在享有的人口红利

As healthcare improves,

随着医疗体系的完善

as infant mortality goes down,

婴儿死亡率的下降

fertility rates start dropping. And India is experiencing that.

生育率开始降低。印度所处的正是这一阶段

India is going to have

印度会有很多

a lot of young people with a demographic dividend

高人口红利的年轻人

for the next 30 years.

出现在接下来的三十年里

What is unique about this demographic dividend

这种人口红利的独特之处在于

is that India will be the only country in the world

印度将成为世界上唯一一个

to have this demographic dividend.

拥有人口红利的国家

In other words, it will be the only young country in an aging world.

也就是说，印度将成为全球老龄化的趋势下唯一一个年轻国家

And this is very important. At the same time

这是非常重要的一点。 另外

if you peel away the demographic dividend in India,

我们剖析印度人口红利的特点

there are actually two demographic curves.

就会发现存在着两个人口曲线

One is in the south and in the west of India,

一个在印度南部和西部

which is already going to be fully expensed by 2015,

2015年将达到最高峰

because in that part of the country, the fertility rate is

因为该地区的生育率

almost equal to that of a West European country.

已与西欧国家基本持平

Then there is the whole northern India,

另外一个在印度北部

which is going to be the bulk of the future demographic dividend.

它将成为未来人口红利的主体

But a demographic dividend is only as good

但这些人口红利

as the investment in your human capital.

就像人力资源的投资一样

Only if the people have education,

只有当人们接受良好教育

they have good health, they have infrastructure,

身体健康，基础设施完善

they have roads to go to work, they have lights to study at night --

当他们上班道路畅通，夜晚学习灯火通明时

only in those cases can you really get the benefit

只有在这些情况下，人们才能够受惠

of a demographic dividend.

才能够从人口红利中受益

In other words, if you don't really invest in the human capital,

换句话说，如果我们不对这些人口红利进行投入

the same demographic dividend

同样的人口红利

can be a demographic disaster.

有可能就变成人口祸患了

Therefore India is at a critical point

因此，印度现在正处在关键的时候

where either it can leverage its demographic dividend

假如不是推动促进其人口红利

or it can lead to a demographic disaster.

就会走上人口祸患的道路

The second thing in India has been the change in

第二点 印度改变了

the role of entrepreneurs.

对于企业家的定义

When India got independence entrepreneurs were seen

印度刚独立时 企业家被看作是

as a bad lot, as people who would exploit.

一群剥削人民的败类

But today, after 60 years, because of the rise of entrepreneurship,

但如今，60年后，随着创业者的涌现

entrepreneurs have become role models,

企业家已成为现实中的楷模

and they are contributing hugely to the society.

对社会做着巨大贡献

This change has contributed

这一改变促进了

to the vitality and the whole economy.

整个经济体系的繁荣

The third big thing I believe that has changed India

我认为改变印度的第三个观念

is our attitude towards the English language.

是我们对英语语言所持态度的改变

English language was seen as a language of the imperialists.

之前 英语被认为是帝国主义者的语言

But today, with globalization,

但如今 全球化的背景下

with outsourcing, English has become a language of aspiration.

外包业务增加 英语语言帮助人们实现抱负

This has made it something that everybody wants to learn.

成为了大家蜂拥学习的一技之长

And the fact that we have English is now becoming

英语也逐渐转变成

a huge strategic asset.

我们巨大的战略性资本

The next thing is technology.

还有科技

Forty years back, computers were seen

40年前，电脑给我们的印象是

as something which was forbidding, something which was intimidating,

令人畏惧 充满威胁的

something that reduced jobs.

人们会因此而失去工作

Today we live in a country

今天 我们所在的国家

which sells eight million mobile phones a month,

每月销售八百万手机

of which 90 percent of those mobile phones

其中百分之九十

are prepaid phones

是预付费手机

because people don't have credit history.

因为人们没有信用记录

Forty percent of those prepaid phones

预付费手机中的百分之四十

are recharged at less than 20 cents at each recharge.

每次充值少于20美分

That is the scale at which

科技已经被大规模接受

technology has liberated and made it accessible.

完全自由化，并被广泛应用

And therefore technology has gone

因此 一开始

from being seen as something forbidding

被视作人类威胁并禁止使用的科技

and intimidating to something that is empowering.

逐渐赢得了人们的认可

Twenty years back,

20年前

when there was a report on bank computerization,

出台过一项有关银行计算机化的报告

they didn't name the report as

人们没有把这份报告命名为

a report on computers,

关于电脑的报告

they call them as "ledger posting machines."

他们把电脑称为过账机

They didn't want the unions to believe that they were actually computers.

他们不想让工会认为那是电脑

And when they wanted to have more advanced, more powerful computers

后来他们想要使用更高级更强大的电脑时

they called them "advanced ledger posting machines."

他们称其为高级过账机

So we have come a long way from those days

之后 我们经历了很多

where the telephone has become an instrument of empowerment,

电话成为了一种赋权的工具

and really has changed the way Indians think of technology.

并真正改变了印度人们看待科技的态度

And then I think the other point

另一方面

is that Indians today are far more

现在的印度人民前所未有地

comfortable with globalization.

适应着全球化的发展

Again, after having lived for more than 200 years

有200多年的时间 印度人民生活在

under the East India Company and under imperial rule,

东印度公司和帝国主义规则下

Indians had a very natural reaction towards globalization

他们对全球化的正常反应

believing it was a form of imperialism.

就是认为那是一种帝国主义

But today, as Indian companies go abroad,

但现在 很多印度公司往国外发展

as Indians come and work all over the world,

印度人们走出来 在世界各地工作

Indians have gained a lot more confidence

他们增添了很多自信

and have realized that globalization is something they can participate in.

并且意识到 他们可以参与到全球化的进程中

And the fact that the demographics are in our favor,

我们在人口上有优势

because we are the only young country in an aging world,

因为我们是世界老龄化趋势下唯一的年轻国家

makes globalization all the more attractive to Indians.

这使全球化对印度人民来说有着更大的吸引力

And finally, India has had

最后一点 印度正在经历

the deepening of its democracy.

民主的不断深化

When democracy came to India 60 years back

当60年前 民主来到印度时

it was an elite concept.

那只是一小部分人的观点

It was a bunch of people who wanted to bring in democracy

一小部分想把民主带进印度的人

because they wanted to bring in the idea of

因为他们想为印度带来不一样的观点

universal voting and parliament and constitution and so forth.

比如投票，议员，宪法等先进思想

But today democracy has become a bottom-up process

但现在 民主已经成为了从下向上的进程

where everybody has realized

每个人都意识到

the benefits of having a voice,

拥有言论权的好处

the benefits of being in an open society.

和开放社会的优势

And therefore democracy has become embedded.

民主也就是这样深入人心的

I believe these six factors --

我认为这六个观念

the rise of the notion of population as human capital,

人力资源概念的产生

the rise of Indian entrepreneurs,

印度企业家的发展

the rise of English as a language of aspiration,

英语语言成为人们的一技之长

technology as something empowering,

科技成为一种赋权的手段

globalization as a positive factor,

全球化开始发挥积极作用

and the deepening of democracy -- has contributed

以及民主的不断深化--这些都促成了

to why India is today growing

印度今天的进步

at rates it has never seen before.

今天这史无前例的快速发展

But having said that,

话虽如此

then we come to what I call as ideas in progress.

接下来我们来看“进行中”的观念

Those are the ideas where there is no argument in a society,

这些观念在社会中已经没有异议

but you are not able to implement those things.

但却无法得以实施

And really there are four things here.

有四种这样的观念

One is the question of education.

一是教育问题

For some reason, whatever reason -- lack of money,

由于某些原因，不管什么样的原因，我们缺少资金

lack of priorities, because of religion having an older culture --

缺少优先重点，因为宗教有着更悠久的文化影响

primary education was never given the focus it required.

初等教育没有得到应有的重视

But now I believe it's reached a point

但我觉得现在

where it has become very important.

到了十分关键的时刻

Unfortunately the government schools don't function,

我们很遗憾地看到 政府的公立学校不能正常运行

so children are going to private schools today.

当下，孩子们只能去私立学校

Even in the slums of India

即使在印度的贫民窟

more than 50 percent of urban kids are going into private schools.

超过一半的城市孩子都去私立学校

So there is a big challenge in getting the schools to work.

所以学校正常运行是一个不小的挑战

But having said that, there is an enormous desire

即便如此，每个人都极其希望

among everybody, including the poor, to educate their children.

穷人们也不例外，希望他们的孩子接受教育

So I believe primary education is an idea

所以我认为 初等教育的观念

which is arrived but not yet implemented.

已经深入人心 但还未得以实施

Similarly, infrastructure --

类似地，基础设施建设也是如此

for a long time, infrastructure was not a priority.

很长一段时间以来，基础设施建设都不予优先考虑

Those of you who have been to India have seen that.

去过印度的人们都有所体会

It's certainly not like China.

这和中国的情况是完全不同的

But today I believe finally infrastructure is something

但现在 基础设施建设终于成为了

which is agreed upon and which people want to implement.

人们达成一致并希望实施的观念

It is reflected in the political statements.

这在官方声明中得以体现

20 years back the political slogan was, "Roti, kapada, makaan,"

20年前的政治口号是"Roti,kapra,makan"

which meant, "Food, clothing and shelter."

意思是“食物，衣服和住所”

And today's political slogan is, "Bijli, sadak, pani,"

现在的政治口号是"Bijli,sarak,paani"

which means "Electricity, water and roads."

意思是“电力，水利和公路”

And that is a change in the mindset

这就是思想上的转变

where infrastructure is now accepted.

基础设施建设得到了肯定

So I do believe this is an idea which has arrived,

所以我相信 这个观念已经得到了大家的认同

but simply not implemented.

只是还没有落实而已

The third thing is again cities.

第三件事是城市

It's because Gandhi believed in villages

因为甘地重视农村

and because the British ruled from the cities,

而英国殖民者从城市统治

therefore Nehru thought of New Delhi as an un-Indian city.

因此尼赫鲁并没有把新德里当作典型的印度城市

For a long time we have neglected our cities.

长久以来 我们忽视城市建设

And that is reflected in the kinds of situations that you see.

大家从现实生活中可以看出

But today, finally, after economic reforms,

但现在 经历了经济改革

and economic growth,

和经济增长

I think the notion that cities are engines

城市拉动

of economic growth,

经济增长

cities are engines of creativity,

城市提高创造力

cities are engines of innovation,

城市促进创新精神

have finally been accepted.

这些理论最终被人们所接受

And I think now you're seeing the move towards improving our cities.

我觉得大家现在可以看到我们城市建设的趋势

Again, an idea which is arrived, but not yet implemented.

这同样也是 已被大家接受但还未实现的观念

The final thing is the notion of India as a single market --

最后一个概念 印度是一个单一的市场

because when you didn't think of India as a market,

因为当你不把印度当作一个市场的时候

you didn't really bother about a single market, because it didn't really matter.

你并不关心它是否单一 因为这并无所谓

And therefore you had a situation

那你就面临着这样一个局面

where every state had its own market for products.

每个州有自己的产品市场

Every province had its own market for agriculture.

每个省有自己的农业市场

Increasingly now the policies of

现在的政策

taxation and infrastructure and all that,

税收 基础设施建设及其他政策

are moving towards creating India as a single market.

正在逐步将印度作为一个单一市场

So there is a form of internal globalization which is happening,

所以国家内部现在也有着一个全球化的趋势

which is as important as external globalization.

这和国家外部的全球化同等重要

These four factors I believe --

这四个因素

the ones of primary education,

初等教育

infrastructure, urbanization, and single market --

基础设施建设，城市化和单一市场

in my view are ideas in India

在我看来 是印度

which have been accepted, but not implemented.

已经接受 但未实现的观念

Then we have what I believe are the ideas in conflict.

接下来就是探讨中的观念

The ideas that we argue about.

我们还为此进行争论的观念

These are the arguments we have which cause gridlock.

所进行的争论常常陷入僵局

What are those ideas? One is, I think, are ideological issues.

这些观念都有哪些呢？第一，我认为，是我们的意识形态

Because of the historical Indian background, in the caste system,

由于印度种姓制度这一历史背景

and because of the fact that there have been many people

也由于众多印度人民

who have been left out in the cold,

一直被冷落

a lot of the politics is about how to make sure

很多政治工作都是为了确保

that we'll address that.

落实这一点

And it leads to reservations and other techniques.

招致了不少异议和其他方法

It's also related to the way that we subsidize our people,

这和我们贴补人民的方式也有关

and all the left and right arguments that we have.

也和我们两边的观点有关

A lot of the Indian problems are related to the ideology

印度很多问题都是关于意识形态的

of caste and other things.

关于种姓制度和其他事情

This policy is causing gridlock.

这项政策逐渐陷入僵局

This is one of the factors which needs to be resolved.

这是需要解决问题之一

The second one is the labor policies that we have,

第二点是我们的劳工政策

which make it so difficult for

现政策下 企业家很难

entrepreneurs to create standardized jobs in companies,

在公司创造标准化职位

that 93 percent of Indian labor

因此 93%的印度劳工

is in the unorganized sector.

都是处于无组织的状态

They have no benefits: they don't have social security;

他们没有救济金 没有社会福利

they don't have pension; they don't have healthcare; none of those things.

没有退休金 没有医疗保健 什么都没有

This needs to be fixed because unless you can bring these people

这种现状必须改变 因为如果不能给人民

into the formal workforce,

提供规范的劳动制度

you will end up creating a whole lot of people who are completely disenfranchised.

最终将有大批人们受到剥削

Therefore we need to create a new set of labor laws,

因此我们需要建立一套崭新的劳动法

which are not as onerous as they are today.

摆脱今天劳动法的繁复

At the same time give a policy for a lot more people to be in the formal sector,

同时发布政策将更多的人们带入正规的行业

and create the jobs for the millions of people that we need to create jobs for.

并为上百万需要工作的人创造就业机会

The third thing is our higher education.

第三件事是我们的高等教育

Indian higher education is completely regulated.

印度的高等教育完全受到管制

It's very difficult to start a private university.

个人很难创办大学

It's very difficult for a foreign university to come to India.

国外的大学也很难来到印度

As a result of that our higher education

结果我们的高等教育

is simply not keeping pace with India's demands.

很自然地不能满足印度的需要

That is leading to a lot of problems which we need to address.

由此带来的很多问题值得我们关注

But most important I believe

但我相信 最重要的

are the ideas we need to anticipate.

是我们需要预见的观念

Here India can look at what is happening in the west

印度可以借鉴发生在西方的事

and elsewhere, and look at what needs to be done.

发生在其他地方的事 并反思自己需要作出的努力

The first thing is, we're very fortunate

首先 我们十分幸运

that technology is at a point

现在的科技

where it is much more advanced

更加发达

than when other countries had the development.

超过了其他国家发展时的科技水平

So we can use technology for governance.

所以我们可以利用科技来执政

We can use technology for direct benefits.

我们可以利用科技直接从中获益

We can use technology for transparency, and many other things.

我们可以利用科技增加透明度 及其他好处

The second thing is, the health issue.

第二件事 是医疗保健

India has equally horrible

印度人们有些严重的

health problems of the higher state of cardiac issue,

健康问题 比如心脏病晚期

the higher state of diabetes, the higher state of obesity.

糖尿病晚期 肥胖症晚期

So there is no point in replacing a set of poor country diseases

所以我们不能简单地把一系列贫穷时期的疾病

with a set of rich country diseases.

替换成一系列富足时期的疾病

Therefore we're to rethink the whole way we look at health.

因此我们要重新审视我们看待医疗系统的方式

We really need to put in place a strategy

我们需要一个战略

so that we don't go to the other extreme of health.

这样我们才不至于走另一个极端

Similarly today in the West

同样地 现在西方社会里

you're seeing the problem of entitlement --

我们可以看到社会保障带来的问题

the cost of social security, the cost of Medicare, the cost of Medicaid.

社会福利的花费 医疗保险的花费 医疗辅助计划的花费

Therefore when you are a young country,

因此对于一个年轻国家来说

again you have a chance to put in place a modern pension system

有机会从头建立一个现代退休金体系

so that you don't create entitlement problems as you grow old.

这样在年老的时候 就不会出现津贴问题

And then again, India does not have the luxury

另外 印度负担不起

of making its environment dirty,

环境污染的后果

because it has to marry environment and development.

因为环境和发展是密不可分的

Just to give an idea, the world has to stabilize

给大家一个粗略的概念 世界每年消耗稳定在

at something like 20 gigatons per year.

200亿吨

On a population of nine billion

对于9亿人口来说

our average carbon emission will have to be about two tons per year.

我们平均二氧化碳排放量每年达两吨

India is already at two tons per year.

印度已经达到每年两吨

But if India grows at something like eight percent,

但如果印度以8%的速度增长

income per year per person will go to 16 times by 2050.

2050年人均年收入将是现在的16倍

So we're saying: income growing at 16 times and no growth in carbon.

所以我们说 收入增长16倍而二氧化碳排放不增长

Therefore we will fundamentally rethink the way we look at the environment,

这样我们可以从根本上 改变对环境的态度

the way we look at energy,

对能源的态度

the way we create whole new paradigms of development.

以及我们创造国家发展的崭新范例

Now why does this matter to you?

为什么这对大家很重要呢？

Why does what's happening 10 thousand miles away matter to all of you?

为什么发生在一万英里以外的事情对大家很重要呢？

Number one, this matters because

第一，它重要是因为

this represents more than a billion people.

它代表着超过十万人民

A billion people, 1/6th of the world population.

十万人民 也就是世界总人口的六分之一

It matters because this is a democracy.

它重要是因为这是民主的体现

And it is important to prove

以此证明

that growth and democracy are not incompatible,

增长和民主并不矛盾也是很重要的

that you can have a democracy, that you can have an open society,

我们可以拥有民主 可以拥有开放的社会

and you can have growth.

我们也可以拥有增长

It's important because if you solve these problems,

它的重要性也在于如果这些问题得以解决

you can solve the problems of poverty in the world.

世界的贫困问题也将迎刃而解

It's important because

它的重要性还体现在

you need it to solve the world's environment problems.

这也是解决世界环境问题的关键点

If we really want to come to a point,

如果我们真的想有所作为

we really want to put a cap on our carbon emission,

我们要真正设定二氧化碳排放的最高限度

we want to really lower the use of energy --

我们要真正降低能源的使用

it has to be solved in countries like India.

印度这样的国家需要解决此类问题

You know if you look at the development

如果我们观察

in the West over 200 years,

西方200年来的发展

the average growth may have been about two percent.

其平均增长约为2%

Here we are talking about countries growing at eight to nine percent.

这里我们讨论的 却是增长率为8%至9%的国家

And that makes a huge difference.

这是有着很大区别的

When India was growing at about three, 3.5 percent

当印度以3% 3.5%的速度增长

and the population was growing at two percent,

人口以2%速度增长时

its per capita income was doubling every 45 years.

其人均收入每45年翻一番

When the economic growth goes to eight percent

当经济增长率上升到8%

and population growth drops to 1.5 percent,

人口增长率下降到1.5%

then per capita income is doubling every nine years.

人均收入每9年翻一番

In other words, you're certainly fast-forwarding this whole process

换言之 我们的确在加速进行着整个过程

of a billion people going to prosperity.

十亿人口逐步走上幸福的道路

And you must have a clear strategy

我们必须有一个清晰的策略

which is important for India and important for the world.

这对印度极为重要 对世界也极为重要

That is why I think all of you

因为 我认为在座的你们

should be equally concerned with it as I am.

也应该像我一样 关注这个问题

Thank you very much.

非常感谢

(Applause)

（掌声）