Nandan Nilekani's ideas for India's future

譯者: Shang-Hsi Huang 審譯者: Marie Wu

Let me talk about India

讓我們透過觀念進化的觀點

through the evolution of ideas.

來談談印度，

Now I believe this is an interesting way of looking at it

我認為用這個角度來討論印度是很有趣的，

because in every society, especially an open democratic society,

因為在每個社會，特別是民主開放社會

it's only when ideas take root that things change.

只有當觀念徹底札根，事情才會有轉變。

Slowly ideas lead to ideology,

長期累積的觀念會形成思想、

lead to policies that lead to actions.

會形成政策，進而導致行動的產生。

In 1930 this country went through a Great Depression,

在1930年時美國經歷大蕭條，

which led to all the ideas of the state and social security,

那促成了有關國家和社會安全觀念的發展，

and all the other things that happened in Roosevelt's time.

還有一些在羅斯福時代發生的改變。

In the 1980s we had the Reagan revolution, which lead to deregulation.

在1980年代我們有"雷根革命"，為管制規定鬆綁。

And today, after the global economic crisis,

今天，在經歷全球經濟危機之後，

there was a whole new set of rules

政府確立了一套介入金融體系

about how the state should intervene.

的全新規則。

So ideas change states.

所以觀念可以改變國家。

And I looked at India and said,

現在我們來看印度，

really there are four kinds of ideas

現在有四種觀念

which really make an impact on India.

衝擊著印度。

The first, to my mind,

在我來看，第一種是

is what I call as "the ideas that have arrived."

我稱作"已經成熟的觀念"，

These ideas have brought together something

那些觀念融合了一些

which has made India happen the way it is today.

造就現今印度的因素。

The second set of ideas I call "ideas in progress."

第二種觀念我稱作"逐漸成熟的觀念"，

Those are ideas which have been accepted

那些觀念是已經被社會接受了的，

but not implemented yet.

但還沒有開始執行。

The third set of ideas are what I call as

第三種觀念我叫它是

"ideas that we argue about" --

"引起討論的觀念"，

those are ideas where we have a fight,

這些觀念會引發爭論，

an ideological battle about how to do things.

人們會在執行面上進行想法上的爭辯。

And the fourth thing, which I believe is most important, is

最後是第四種，我覺得是最重要的觀念，

"the ideas that we need to anticipate."

"必須預期到的觀念"。

Because when you are a developing country

因為當你處在一個發展中的國家，

in the world where you can see the problems that other countries are having,

你可以看到其他國家已經出現的問題，

you can actually anticipate

你其實可以預測出問題的後果，

what that did and do things very differently.

然後用不同的方式來處理。

Now in India's case I believe there are six ideas

以印度來說，我相信有六種觀念

which are responsible for where it has come today.

造成印度今日的模樣。

The first is really the notion of people.

第一是"人口"的觀念，

In the '60s and '70s

在60和70年代，

we thought of people as a burden.

我們把人口當成重擔、

We thought of people as a liability.

當成是負擔，

Today we talk of people as an asset.

現在人口則是我們的資產。

We talk of people as human capital.

我們把人口當作人力資本，

And I believe this change in the mindset,

我相信在我們心中對"人口"的看法，

of looking at people as something of a burden

已經從"重擔"

to human capital,

轉變成"人力資本"了，

has been one of the fundamental changes in the Indian mindset.

而這是印度人最重要的觀念改革之一。

And this change in thinking of human capital

人們以人力資本來看待印度人口，

is linked to the fact

是因為印度正在享受人口成長

that India is going through a demographic dividend.

所帶來的好處。

As healthcare improves,

印度目前的醫療照護水準已提升，

as infant mortality goes down,

新生兒死亡率也已下降，

fertility rates start dropping. And India is experiencing that.

出生率也開始下降。

India is going to have

印度在未來30年內，

a lot of young people with a demographic dividend

將嚐到大量年輕人口

for the next 30 years.

所帶來的好處。

What is unique about this demographic dividend

印度是世界上

is that India will be the only country in the world

唯一能夠因為人口增加，

to have this demographic dividend.

而享有好處的國家。

In other words, it will be the only young country in an aging world.

換句話說，印度是在人口老化的世界中唯一保有年輕勞動力的國家。

And this is very important. At the same time

而這非常重要。在此同時，

if you peel away the demographic dividend in India,

如果你分析印度的人口結構，

there are actually two demographic curves.

會發現有兩個人口曲線，

One is in the south and in the west of India,

一個是在印度的南部和西部，

which is already going to be fully expensed by 2015,

這個地區在2015年前就會用盡所有好處，

because in that part of the country, the fertility rate is

因為這個地區的出生率，

almost equal to that of a West European country.

幾乎和西歐國家一樣。

Then there is the whole northern India,

再來是整個印度北部地區，

which is going to be the bulk of the future demographic dividend.

未來會因為人口增加而得到滿滿的好處，

But a demographic dividend is only as good

但這只有在你願意投資你的人力資本時，

as the investment in your human capital.

才能得到這種好處。

Only if the people have education,

只有當人民受到教育、

they have good health, they have infrastructure,

擁有健康和基礎建設、

they have roads to go to work, they have lights to study at night --

讓他們上班時有馬路可使用、晚上念書時有燈光...

only in those cases can you really get the benefit

只有在這些前提下，你才可以享受到

of a demographic dividend.

人口增加所帶來的好處。

In other words, if you don't really invest in the human capital,

換句話說，如果你不肯投資在人力資本上，

the same demographic dividend

人口增加就沒有好處，

can be a demographic disaster.

反而會變成災難。

Therefore India is at a critical point

因此印度正處於一個關鍵時刻，

where either it can leverage its demographic dividend

端看它是否可以將人口增加轉化成優勢，

or it can lead to a demographic disaster.

抑或是讓它變成一場災難。

The second thing in India has been the change in

第二個觀念，印度正在經歷

the role of entrepreneurs.

企業家角色的轉變。

When India got independence entrepreneurs were seen

印度獨立之後，企業家曾被視為

as a bad lot, as people who would exploit.

剝削人民的壞角色，

But today, after 60 years, because of the rise of entrepreneurship,

但六十年過後，由於企業體的增加，

entrepreneurs have become role models,

今天的企業家卻變成眾人的楷模，

and they are contributing hugely to the society.

因為他們對社會做出重大貢獻。

This change has contributed

這個轉變

to the vitality and the whole economy.

為整體經濟注入了活力。

The third big thing I believe that has changed India

我相信改變印度的第三觀念，

is our attitude towards the English language.

是我們對英文的態度。

English language was seen as a language of the imperialists.

英文曾被視為是帝國主義的語言，

But today, with globalization,

但今天隨著全球化和外包事業的發展，

with outsourcing, English has become a language of aspiration.

英文變成了可以帶來希望的語言。

This has made it something that everybody wants to learn.

現在每個人都想學習英文。

And the fact that we have English is now becoming

事實上，英文現在已經成為

a huge strategic asset.

一個重要的戰略資產。

The next thing is technology.

接下來是科技，

Forty years back, computers were seen

四十年前，

as something which was forbidding, something which was intimidating,

電腦曾被視為可怕、難以親近的東西，

something that reduced jobs.

而且會造成勞工失業。

Today we live in a country

今天我們住在一個

which sells eight million mobile phones a month,

每個月賣出八百萬支手機的國家，

of which 90 percent of those mobile phones

而其中百分之九十的手機，

are prepaid phones

都使用預付卡，

because people don't have credit history.

因為人們沒有信用紀錄。

Forty percent of those prepaid phones

在預付卡中還有百分之四十的手機，

are recharged at less than 20 cents at each recharge.

每次充電還會被索取低於20分的費用。

That is the scale at which

這個規模顯示

technology has liberated and made it accessible.

科技已經被自由使用，而且讓人廣泛接受。

And therefore technology has gone

科技也因此從原本

from being seen as something forbidding

被視為可怕、難以親近的東西，

and intimidating to something that is empowering.

轉變成強而有力的工具。

Twenty years back,

20年前，

when there was a report on bank computerization,

有一篇關於銀行電腦化的報告，

they didn't name the report as

他們不把這報告叫做

a report on computers,

關於電腦的報告，

they call them as "ledger posting machines."

他們把電腦稱作過帳機。

They didn't want the unions to believe that they were actually computers.

他們不想讓工會認為這些機器就是電腦，

And when they wanted to have more advanced, more powerful computers

然後當銀行想要更高階、更強大的電腦時，

they called them "advanced ledger posting machines."

他們就把這些電腦稱作"高階過帳機"。

So we have come a long way from those days

我們經歷了一段很長的科技黑暗期，

where the telephone has become an instrument of empowerment,

在電話被視為強而有力的工具之後，

and really has changed the way Indians think of technology.

印度人才真正地改變了對科技的態度。

And then I think the other point

接下來，我認為另一個觀念

is that Indians today are far more

是印度人對全球化這件事，

comfortable with globalization.

己經可以坦然面對了。

Again, after having lived for more than 200 years

在經歷了帝國主義和東印度公司

under the East India Company and under imperial rule,

超過兩百年的統治之後，

Indians had a very natural reaction towards globalization

印度人很自然的相信

believing it was a form of imperialism.

全球化是帝國主義的另一種形式。

But today, as Indian companies go abroad,

但今天當許多印度公司躍上國際舞台，

as Indians come and work all over the world,

許多印度人在世界各地工作，

Indians have gained a lot more confidence

印度人重新拾回信心，

and have realized that globalization is something they can participate in.

並相信全球化是他們可以參與的。

And the fact that the demographics are in our favor,

而龐大的人口成為我們的優勢，

because we are the only young country in an aging world,

因為我們是這高齡化世界中唯一有年輕勞動力的國家，

makes globalization all the more attractive to Indians.

這讓全球化對印度人更具吸引力。

And finally, India has had

最後，

the deepening of its democracy.

印度更深化了它的民主程度，

When democracy came to India 60 years back

當印度在六十年前首度實施民主政治時，

it was an elite concept.

它只是屬於菁英階級的觀念，

It was a bunch of people who wanted to bring in democracy

有一群人想把民主帶進印度，

because they wanted to bring in the idea of

因為他們想要引進全民投票、國民議會

universal voting and parliament and constitution and so forth.

和憲法等先進的觀念。

But today democracy has become a bottom-up process

但今天民主已經成為每個人都能參與的活動，

where everybody has realized

大家都能享有

the benefits of having a voice,

言論自由帶來的好處，

the benefits of being in an open society.

及身處在一個開放社會的好處，

And therefore democracy has become embedded.

因此民主已經深植於每個人的心中。

I believe these six factors --

我相信這六個觀念--

the rise of the notion of population as human capital,

人口被視為人力資本、

the rise of Indian entrepreneurs,

印度企業家的興起、

the rise of English as a language of aspiration,

英文被視為能夠帶來希望的語言、

technology as something empowering,

科技被視為強而有力的工具、

globalization as a positive factor,

全球化被當作正面因素看待、

and the deepening of democracy -- has contributed

和民主的深化，

to why India is today growing

都讓今日的印度

at rates it has never seen before.

以前所未有的速度成長。

But having said that,

但就像我說的，

then we come to what I call as ideas in progress.

我們已進入了我所說的"逐漸成熟的觀念"，

Those are the ideas where there is no argument in a society,

就是社會對這些觀念已經形成共識，

but you are not able to implement those things.

但還未能付諸實行。

And really there are four things here.

在這裡有四個重點，

One is the question of education.

其一是教育問題。

For some reason, whatever reason -- lack of money,

基於某些原因，各式各樣的原因，像是缺乏經費，

lack of priorities, because of religion having an older culture --

或是因為宗教的歷史比較悠久，所以教育就比較不重要等，

primary education was never given the focus it required.

基礎教育從來未曾獲得應有的重視。

But now I believe it's reached a point

但現在我相信，基礎教育已經到了

where it has become very important.

變得非常重要的時間點。

Unfortunately the government schools don't function,

不幸的是，現在的公立學校沒有作用，

so children are going to private schools today.

所以學童只能選擇私立學校。

Even in the slums of India

即使在印度的貧民窟裡，

more than 50 percent of urban kids are going into private schools.

仍有超過百分之五十的學童就讀私立學校。

So there is a big challenge in getting the schools to work.

所以讓公立學校恢復功能是一項艱鉅的挑戰，

But having said that, there is an enormous desire

但就像我說的，每個人--甚至是窮人--

among everybody, including the poor, to educate their children.

都極度渴望讓他們的孩子受教育。

So I believe primary education is an idea

所以我相信，在印度，基礎教育這個觀念

which is arrived but not yet implemented.

還只是共識，但還未實行。

Similarly, infrastructure --

基礎建設也是一樣。

for a long time, infrastructure was not a priority.

長久以來，基礎建設一直都不是優先項目，

Those of you who have been to India have seen that.

你們如果曾去過印度就會知道，

It's certainly not like China.

印度完全不像中國。

But today I believe finally infrastructure is something

但現在我相信，大家對基礎建設

which is agreed upon and which people want to implement.

已經有了共識，而且大家會想要去做。

It is reflected in the political statements.

這反映在政策上，

20 years back the political slogan was, "Roti, kapada, makaan,"

20年前的政治口號是"Roti, kapra, makan"，

which meant, "Food, clothing and shelter."

意思是"食物、衣物和房屋"，

And today's political slogan is, "Bijli, sadak, pani,"

但現在的政治口號變成"Bijli, sarak, paani"，

which means "Electricity, water and roads."

那代表"電力、自來水和柏油馬路"。

And that is a change in the mindset

而心中想法的改變就表示

where infrastructure is now accepted.

"基礎建設"的觀念已經廣被接受了，

So I do believe this is an idea which has arrived,

所以我相信這是個已經有共識、

but simply not implemented.

但僅僅還沒被實行的觀念。

The third thing is again cities.

第三件事是都市化--

It's because Gandhi believed in villages

由於甘地在農村發展，

and because the British ruled from the cities,

而英國統治都市，

therefore Nehru thought of New Delhi as an un-Indian city.

因此尼赫魯認為新德里不是典型的印度城市。

For a long time we have neglected our cities.

長久以來我們一直忽略我們的都市發展，

And that is reflected in the kinds of situations that you see.

結果反映到現在你所看到的情況。

But today, finally, after economic reforms,

現在，在我們經歷了經濟改革

and economic growth,

和經濟成長之後，

I think the notion that cities are engines

我認為大家都已經知道

of economic growth,

都市是經濟成長的引擎，

cities are engines of creativity,

都市是創意的引擎，

cities are engines of innovation,

都市是創新的引擎，

have finally been accepted.

這個觀念已經被廣為接受了。

And I think now you're seeing the move towards improving our cities.

我想你可以看到我們正在改善我們的都市環境，

Again, an idea which is arrived, but not yet implemented.

這又是一個大家已經有共識但還沒被實行的觀念。

The final thing is the notion of India as a single market --

最後是把印度當作單一市場的觀念，

because when you didn't think of India as a market,

因為如果你不把印度當作一個市場，

you didn't really bother about a single market, because it didn't really matter.

印度是不是一個單一市場就不是那麼重要了。

And therefore you had a situation

以往的情形

where every state had its own market for products.

就是每個省都有自己的產品市場，

Every province had its own market for agriculture.

每個省都有自己的農產品市場。

Increasingly now the policies of

現在稅務和基礎建設的政策

taxation and infrastructure and all that,

都在大量增加，

are moving towards creating India as a single market.

促使印度成為一個單一市場，

So there is a form of internal globalization which is happening,

所以一個與"全球化"同等重要的

which is as important as external globalization.

"印度內部全球化"正在進行中。

These four factors I believe --

"基礎教育" 、"基礎建設"、

the ones of primary education,

"都市化"和"單一市場"

infrastructure, urbanization, and single market --

這四點，我相信

in my view are ideas in India

在印度是大家已經有共識，

which have been accepted, but not implemented.

但還沒被實行的觀念。

Then we have what I believe are the ideas in conflict.

再來就是我所謂的"引發討論的觀念"，

The ideas that we argue about.

也就是我們彼此會進行爭論的觀念，

These are the arguments we have which cause gridlock.

或是會因爭論而導致僵局的觀念。

What are those ideas? One is, I think, are ideological issues.

那些觀念指的是什麼?我認為其中之一是意識形態。

Because of the historical Indian background, in the caste system,

因為印度有"種姓制度"的歷史背景，

and because of the fact that there have been many people

也因為這樣，有許多人

who have been left out in the cold,

受到排擠，

a lot of the politics is about how to make sure

因此，有許多政見就致力於

that we'll address that.

讓大家知道有這種排擠存在，

And it leads to reservations and other techniques.

也因此產生了保護區及其他的相關政策。

It's also related to the way that we subsidize our people,

這也關係到我們如何補助人民，

and all the left and right arguments that we have.

以及左派和右派之間的論戰。

A lot of the Indian problems are related to the ideology

很多印度的問題都與種姓制度

of caste and other things.

和其他的觀念有關，

This policy is causing gridlock.

這制度形成了阻礙進步的僵局，

This is one of the factors which needs to be resolved.

這也是一個需要被解決的問題。

The second one is the labor policies that we have,

第二個是我們目前的勞工政策，

which make it so difficult for

我們的勞工政策讓企業

entrepreneurs to create standardized jobs in companies,

很難在公司裡創造出標準化的工作空缺，

that 93 percent of Indian labor

因此有百分之九十三的印度勞工，

is in the unorganized sector.

都在為沒有制度的企業工作。

They have no benefits: they don't have social security;

他們沒有福利、沒有社會保險、

they don't have pension; they don't have healthcare; none of those things.

沒有退休金、也沒有醫療保障，一樣都沒有。

This needs to be fixed because unless you can bring these people

我們得改善這個狀況，因為除非你可以

into the formal workforce,

讓這些人成為正式員工，

you will end up creating a whole lot of people who are completely disenfranchised.

否則你只是在讓一堆人被剝奪公民權而已。

Therefore we need to create a new set of labor laws,

因此我們需要一套全新的勞工法，

which are not as onerous as they are today.

一套不像現在一樣繁文縟節的法律。

At the same time give a policy for a lot more people to be in the formal sector,

在此同時，我們要制定政策，讓更多人在有制度的企業工作，

and create the jobs for the millions of people that we need to create jobs for.

並讓更多人享有更多工作機會。

The third thing is our higher education.

第三點是印度的高等教育。

Indian higher education is completely regulated.

印度的高等教育體制極度僵化，

It's very difficult to start a private university.

要開設一間私立大學是非常困難的事，

It's very difficult for a foreign university to come to India.

外國大學想在印度設分校也極為困難，

As a result of that our higher education

這讓我們的高等教育

is simply not keeping pace with India's demands.

沒辦法跟上時代的需求，

That is leading to a lot of problems which we need to address.

於是產生了很多我們需要去面對的問題。

But most important I believe

但最重要的觀念，我相信是那些

are the ideas we need to anticipate.

我們必須預期到的觀念。

Here India can look at what is happening in the west

現在印度可以先看看西方國家和其他地方

and elsewhere, and look at what needs to be done.

發生了什麼事，然後有什麼事是我們需要去完成的。

The first thing is, we're very fortunate

首先，我們很幸運的是，

that technology is at a point

現在的科技已經比

where it is much more advanced

許多國家在發展時的科技

than when other countries had the development.

還要進步許多了。

So we can use technology for governance.

所以我們可以把科技導入管理，

We can use technology for direct benefits.

我們可以從科技獲得直接的好處，

We can use technology for transparency, and many other things.

我們可以用科技提高公開透明度，還可以用科技做其它許多事情。

The second thing is, the health issue.

再來是健康議題，

India has equally horrible

印度也有同樣嚴重的健康問題，

health problems of the higher state of cardiac issue,

像心臟疾病、

the higher state of diabetes, the higher state of obesity.

糖尿病和肥胖問題，

So there is no point in replacing a set of poor country diseases

所以現在拿富國的疾病來取代

with a set of rich country diseases.

窮國的疾病是不必要的。

Therefore we're to rethink the whole way we look at health.

因此我們要重新思考我們對健康的整體概念，

We really need to put in place a strategy

我們迫切需要實行一個

so that we don't go to the other extreme of health.

不會讓國民健康走向另一個極端的策略。

Similarly today in the West

相同的，今天在西方國家，

you're seeing the problem of entitlement --

你會看到福利問題--

the cost of social security, the cost of Medicare, the cost of Medicaid.

社會保險的費用、醫療的費用、醫療補助等。

Therefore when you are a young country,

因此一個年輕的國家，

again you have a chance to put in place a modern pension system

就可以趁早推行現代退休金制度，

so that you don't create entitlement problems as you grow old.

然後當國家步入成熟階段時，就不會有福利方面的問題。

And then again, India does not have the luxury

再來，印度沒有

of making its environment dirty,

污染環境的本錢，

because it has to marry environment and development.

因為印度必須在環保和經濟發展間保持均衡。

Just to give an idea, the world has to stabilize

給大家一些數據參考一下，

at something like 20 gigatons per year.

全球的垃圾量必須固定在每年200億噸左右，

On a population of nine billion

而全球有九十億人口，

our average carbon emission will have to be about two tons per year.

每年平均的碳排放量必須維持在兩噸左右，

India is already at two tons per year.

印度現在每年的排放量就已經有二噸了。

But if India grows at something like eight percent,

但如果印度保持每年百分之八的成長率，

income per year per person will go to 16 times by 2050.

2050年每人每年的收入將比現在成長16倍，

So we're saying: income growing at 16 times and no growth in carbon.

這就是說收入成長了16倍，但碳排放量卻不能增加。

Therefore we will fundamentally rethink the way we look at the environment,

因此我們要重新思考我們對待環境的態度、

the way we look at energy,

我們使用能源的方式、

the way we create whole new paradigms of development.

以及我們創造一個全新發展模式的方式。

Now why does this matter to you?

這和你有什麼關係?

Why does what's happening 10 thousand miles away matter to all of you?

你為什麼要關心發生在一萬英哩外的事情?

Number one, this matters because

第一點，這件事關係到十億人口，

this represents more than a billion people.

所以很重要。

A billion people, 1/6th of the world population.

十億人，是地球總人口的六分之一，

It matters because this is a democracy.

重要的是，它是一個民主政權。

And it is important to prove

重要的是，印度能證明民主與

that growth and democracy are not incompatible,

經濟成長並不衝突，

that you can have a democracy, that you can have an open society,

你可以擁有一個民主政府，你也可以擁有一個開放的社會，

and you can have growth.

然後你同時也有經濟成長。

It's important because if you solve these problems,

重要的是，如果你可以解決印度的問題，

you can solve the problems of poverty in the world.

那你就可以解決這世界上所有的貧窮問題。

It's important because

重要的是，

you need it to solve the world's environment problems.

你需要印度的經驗來解決這世界上的環境問題。

If we really want to come to a point,

如果我們想解決問題，

we really want to put a cap on our carbon emission,

我們就必須要限制碳排放量、

we want to really lower the use of energy --

我們就必須要減少能源的使用，

it has to be solved in countries like India.

尤其是像印度這樣的國家，更需要解決這類問題。

You know if you look at the development

當你回頭看看

in the West over 200 years,

西方世界在過去兩百年來的發展，

the average growth may have been about two percent.

年平均經濟成長率可能只有百分之二，

Here we are talking about countries growing at eight to nine percent.

這裡我們所談的是那些每年成長百分之八、九的國家，

And that makes a huge difference.

這完全是不一樣的情況。

When India was growing at about three, 3.5 percent

以前，當印度經濟成長率有百分之3或3.5，

and the population was growing at two percent,

而人口成長率有百分之二的時候，

its per capita income was doubling every 45 years.

它的國民年平均收入每四十五年將會成長一倍；

When the economic growth goes to eight percent

而現在，經濟成長率來到每年百分之八，

and population growth drops to 1.5 percent,

而人口成長率則衰退至百分之一點五時，

then per capita income is doubling every nine years.

國民年平均收入只要每九年就會成長一倍。

In other words, you're certainly fast-forwarding this whole process

換句話說，印度是在加速這整個經濟發展過程，

of a billion people going to prosperity.

讓十億人走向富裕。

And you must have a clear strategy

而我們必須要有清楚的策略，

which is important for India and important for the world.

因為這對印度和整個世界都是很重要的。

That is why I think all of you

這就是為什麼我希望你們

should be equally concerned with it as I am.

能跟我一樣的關心印度。

Thank you very much.

謝謝大家。

(Applause)

(鼓掌)