Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković

Many people face the news each morning

Mnogi ljudi se suočavaju s vestima svakog jutra

with trepidation and dread.

sa strepnjom i jezom.

Every day, we read of shootings,

Svakog dana čitamo o pucnjavama,

inequality, pollution, dictatorship,

nejednakosti, zagađenju, diktaturi,

war and the spread of nuclear weapons.

ratu i širenju nuklearnog oružja.

These are some of the reasons

Ovo su neki od razloga

that 2016 was called the "Worst. Year. Ever."

zbog kojih je 2016. nazvana „Najgora. Godina. Ikad."

Until 2017 claimed that record --

A onda je 2017. oborila rekord -

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

and left many people longing for earlier decades,

i ostavila mnoge ljude da žude za ranijim decenijama,

when the world seemed safer, cleaner and more equal.

kada se svet činio bezbednijim, čistijim i s više jednakosti.

But is this a sensible way to understand the human condition

Međutim, da li je ovo razuman način da razumemo ljudsko stanje

in the 21st century?

u XXI veku?

As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out,

Kako je Frenklin Pirs Adams istakao:

"Nothing is more responsible for the good old days

„Ništa nije zaslužnije za dobre stare dane

than a bad memory."

od lošeg pamćenja."

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

You can always fool yourself into seeing a decline

Uvek možete da prevarite sebe i da vidite propadanje,

if you compare bleeding headlines of the present

ako poredite krvave naslove iz sadašnjosti

with rose-tinted images of the past.

sa ružičastim prizorima iz prošlosti.

What does the trajectory of the world look like

Kako izgleda putanja sveta

when we measure well-being over time using a constant yardstick?

kada merimo dobrobit tokom vremena koristeći nepromenjivo merilo?

Let's compare the most recent data on the present

Uporedimo poslednje podatke o sadašnjosti

with the same measures 30 years ago.

sa istim merenjima od pre 30 godina.

Last year, Americans killed each other at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,

Prošle godine, stopa ubijenih Amerikanaca je bila 5.3 na sto hiljada,

had seven percent of their citizens in poverty

sedam procenata Amerikanaca je živelo u siromaštvu

and emitted 21 million tons of particulate matter

i oslobodili su 21 milon tona čestica

and four million tons of sulfur dioxide.

kao i četiri miliona tona sumpor-dioksida.

But 30 years ago, the homicide rate was 8.5 per hundred thousand,

Međutim, pre 30 godina stopa ubistava je bila 8.5 na sto hiljada,

poverty rate was 12 percent

stopa siromaštva je bila 12 procenata

and we emitted 35 million tons of particulate matter

i oslobodili smo 35 milona tona čestica

and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.

i 20 miliona tona sumpor-dioksida.

What about the world as a whole?

Šta je sa celokupnim svetom?

Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars,

Prošle godine u svetu se vodilo 12 ratova,

60 autocracies,

bilo je 60 autokratija,

10 percent of the world population in extreme poverty

10 procenata svetske populacije je živelo u ekstremnom siromaštvu

and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.

i imali smo preko 10.000 nuklearnog oružja.

But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars,

Međutim, pre 30 godina imali smo 23 rata,

85 autocracies,

85 autokratija,

37 percent of the world population in extreme poverty

37 procenata svetske populacije je živelo u ekstremnom siromaštvu

and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.

i imali smo preko 60.000 nuklearnog oružja.

True, last year was a terrible year for terrorism in Western Europe,

Istina, prošla godina je bila užasna zbog terorizma u Zapadnoj Evropi,

with 238 deaths,

sa 238 mrtvih,

but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.

ali 1988. je bila gora sa 440 mrtvih.

What's going on?

Šta se dešava?

Was 1988 a particularly bad year?

Da li je 1988. bila naročito loša godina?

Or are these improvements a sign that the world, for all its struggles,

Ili su ovi napreci znak da svet, uprkos previranjima,

gets better over time?

vremenom postaje bolji?

Might we even invoke the admittedly old-fashioned notion of progress?

Da li bismo mogli da prizovemo opštepoznati staromodni pojam napretka?

To do so is to court a certain amount of derision,

Ako učinite tako prizivate određenu dozu poruge

because I have found that intellectuals hate progress.

jer sam otkrio da intelektualci mrze napredak.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

And intellectuals who call themselves progressive really hate progress.

A intelektualci koji sebe nazivaju progresivnim zaista mrze napredak.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Now, it's not that they hate the fruits of progress, mind you.

Sad, nije da oni mrze plodove napretka, takoreći.

Most academics and pundits

Većina akademika i stručnjaka

would rather have their surgery with anesthesia than without it.

bi radije imali operaciju sa anestezijom nego bez nje.

It's the idea of progress that rankles the chattering class.

Radi se o ideji napretka koja uznemirava brbljivu klasu.

If you believe that humans can improve their lot, I have been told,

Ako verujete da ljudi mogu da unaprede svoju sudbinu, rečeno mi je,

that means that you have a blind faith

da to znači da slepo verujete

and a quasi-religious belief in the outmoded superstition

u kvazi-religijsko ubeđenje u zastarelo sujeverje

and the false promise of the myth of the onward march

i lažno obećanje mita o maršu unapred

of inexorable progress.

neumitnog napretka.

You are a cheerleader for vulgar American can-doism,

Vi ste navijač vulgarnog američkog moguizma

with the rah-rah spirit of boardroom ideology,

sa ša-la-la duhom ideologije odbora:

Silicon Valley and the Chamber of Commerce.

Silicijumske doline i Trgovinske komore.

You are a practitioner of Whig history,

Praktikant ste istorije Vigovaca,

a naive optimist, a Pollyanna and, of course, a Pangloss,

naivni optimista, Polijana, i, naravno, Panglos,

alluding to the Voltaire character who declared,

aludirajući na Volterovog lika koji je izjavio:

"All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds."

„Sve je zarad najboljeg u najboljem od svih mogućih svetova."

Well, Professor Pangloss, as it happens, was a pessimist.

Pa, profesor Panglos slučajno je pesimista.

A true optimist believes there can be much better worlds

Istinski optimista veruje da mnogo bolji svetovi mogu da postoje

than the one we have today.

od onog koji danas imamo.

But all of this is irrelevant,

Međutim, sve ovo je nevažno

because the question of whether progress has taken place

jer pitanje da li se napredak desio

is not a matter of faith

nije stvar vere

or having an optimistic temperament or seeing the glass as half full.

ili posedovanja optimističnog temperamenta ili posmatranja čaše kao polupune.

It's a testable hypothesis.

To je proverljiva hipoteza.

For all their differences,

Koliko god se neslagali,

people largely agree on what goes into human well-being:

ljudi se mahom slažu povodom toga šta je ljudska dobrobit:

life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,

život, zdravlje, hrana, prosperitet, mir, sloboda, bezbednost, znanje,

leisure, happiness.

dokolica, sreća.

All of these things can be measured.

Sve ovo može da se meri.

If they have improved over time, that, I submit, is progress.

Ako su se popravili tokom vremena, to prihvatam kao napredak.

Let's go to the data,

Pređimo na podatke,

beginning with the most precious thing of all, life.

počinjući sa najdragocenijom stvari od svih: životom.

For most of human history, life expectancy at birth was around 30.

Većim delom ljudske istorije životni vek po rođenju je bio oko 30.

Today, worldwide, it is more than 70,

Danas, širom sveta, prelazi 70 godina,

and in the developed parts of the world,

a u razvijenim delovima sveta,

more than 80.

prelazi 80.

250 years ago, in the richest countries of the world,

Pre 250 godina, u najbogatijim državama sveta,

a third of the children did not live to see their fifth birthday,

trećina dece ne bi doživela svoj peti rođendan,

before the risk was brought down a hundredfold.

pre nego što je rizik umanjen stostruko.

Today, that fate befalls less than six percent of children

Danas, ta sudbina će da snađe manje od šest procenata dece

in the poorest countries of the world.

u najsiromašnijim državama sveta.

Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

Glad je jedan od četiri jahača apokalipse.

It could bring devastation to any part of the world.

Može da donese uništenje u bilo koji deo sveta.

Today, famine has been banished

Danas, glad je prognana

to the most remote and war-ravaged regions.

u najudaljenije i ratom razorene regije.

200 years ago, 90 percent of the world's population

Pre 200 godina, 90 procenata svetske populacije

subsisted in extreme poverty.

je živelo u ekstremnom siromaštvu.

Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do.

Danas tako živi manje od 10 procenata.

For most of human history,

Većim delom ljudske istorije,

the powerful states and empires

moćne države i carstva

were pretty much always at war with each other,

su gotovo uvek bile u ratu jedne s drugima,

and peace was a mere interlude between wars.

a mir je bio puka pauza između ratova.

Today, they are never at war with each other.

Danas, uopšte međusobno ne ratuju.

The last great power war

Poslednji rat velikih sila

pitted the United States against China 65 years ago.

je okrenuo Sjedinjene Države protiv Kine pre 65 godina.

More recently, wars of all kinds have become fewer and less deadly.

U skorije vreme, ratovi u svakom obliku su postali ređi i manje smrtonosni.

The annual rate of war has fallen from about 22 per hundred thousand per year

Godišnja stopa rata je pala sa oko 22 na sto hiljada godišnje

in the early '50s to 1.2 today.

u ranim '50-im na 1,2 danas.

Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks

Demokratija je pretrpela očigledno nazadovanje

in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey

u Venecueli, Rusiji, Turskoj

and is threatened by the rise of authoritarian populism

i preti joj uspon autoritarnog populizma

in Eastern Europe and the United States.

u Istočnoj Evropi i Sjedinjenim Državama.

Yet the world has never been more democratic

Ipak, svet nikad nije bio demokratičniji

than it has been in the past decade,

nego što je bio u protekloj deceniji,

with two-thirds of the world's people living in democracies.

sa dve trećine ljudi u svetu koji su živeli u demokratijama.

Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy and the code of vendetta

Stope ubistava se strmoglavljuju uvek kad anarhiju i zakon osvete

are replaced by the rule of law.

zameni vladavina prava.

It happened when feudal Europe was brought under the control of centralized kingdoms,

To se desilo kada je feudalna Evropa pala pod kontrolu centralizovanih kraljevstava,

so that today a Western European

pa danas Zapadnoevropljanin

has 1/35th the chance of being murdered

ima šanse 1/35 da bude ubijen

compared to his medieval ancestors.

u odnosu na svoje srednjovekovne pretke.

It happened again in colonial New England,

Desilo se ponovo u kolonijalnoj Novoj Engleskoj,

in the American Wild West when the sheriffs moved to town,

na američkom Dviljem zapadu kada su se šerifi doselili u grad,

and in Mexico.

kao i u Meksiku.

Indeed, we've become safer in just about every way.

Zaista, postali smo bezbedniji skoro na svim poljima.

Over the last century, we've become 96 percent less likely

U proteklom veku umanjili smo za 96% šanse

to be killed in a car crash,

da poginemo u udesu,

88 percent less likely to be mowed down on the sidewalk,

za 88% su nam manje šanse da nas pokose na trotoaru,

99 percent less likely to die in a plane crash,

za 99% su nam manje šanse da poginemo u padu aviona,

95 percent less likely to be killed on the job,

za 95% su nam manje šanse da poginemo na radnom mestu,

89 percent less likely to be killed by an act of God,

za 89% su nam manje šanse da poginemo od strane više sile,

such as a drought, flood, wildfire, storm, volcano,

poput suše, poplave, požara, oluje, vulkana,

landslide, earthquake or meteor strike,

odrona, zemljotresa ili kiše meteora,

presumably not because God has become less angry with us

verovatno ne zato što je bog postao manje ljut na nas,

but because of improvements in the resilience of our infrastructure.

već zbog napretka u izdržljivosti naše infrastrukture.

And what about the quintessential act of God,

A šta je sa suštinskim božjim činom,

the projectile hurled by Zeus himself?

projektilom poslanim lično od Zevsa?

Yes, we are 97 percent less likely to be killed by a bolt of lightning.

Da, procenat verovatnoće da nas ubije grom je umanjen za 97%.

Before the 17th century,

Pre XVII veka,

no more than 15 percent of Europeans could read or write.

ne više od 15 procenata Evropljana je moglo da čita ili piše.

Europe and the United States achieved universal literacy

Evropa i Sjedinjene Države su postigli univerzalnu pismenost

by the middle of the 20th century,

do sredine XX veka,

and the rest of the world is catching up.

a ostatak sveta ih sustiže.

Today, more than 90 percent of the world's population

Danas, preko 90 procenata svetske populacije

under the age of 25 can read and write.

mlađe od 25 godina zna da čita i piše.

In the 19th century, Westerners worked more than 60 hours per week.

U XIX veku, zapadnjaci su radili preko 60 sati nedeljno.

Today, they work fewer than 40.

Danas rade manje od 40.

Thanks to the universal penetration of running water and electricity

Zahvaljujući univerzalnom prodoru tekuće vode i električne energije

in the developed world

u razvijenom svetu

and the widespread adoption of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,

i širokoj primeni mašina za veš, usisivača,

refrigerators, dishwashers, stoves and microwaves,

frižidera, mašina za sudove, rerni i mikrotalasnih pećnica,

the amount of our lives that we forfeit to housework

udeo naših života koje posvećujemo kućnim poslovima

has fallen from 60 hours a week

je pao sa 60 sati nedeljno

to fewer than 15 hours a week.

na manje od 15 sati nedeljno.

Do all of these gains in health, wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure

Da li nas svi ovi dobici u zdravlju, bogatstvu, bezbednosti, znanju i dokolici

make us any happier?

čine srećnijim?

The answer is yes.

Odgovor je da.

In 86 percent of the world's countries,

U 86% država u svetu

happiness has increased in recent decades.

sreća je uvećana u nedavnim decenijama.

Well, I hope to have convinced you

Pa, nadam se da sam vas ubedio

that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism,

da napredak nije pitanje vere, niti optimizma,

but is a fact of human history,

već se radi o činjenici ljudske istorije,

indeed the greatest fact in human history.

uisitnu najvećoj činjenici ljudske istorije.

And how has this fact been covered in the news?

A kako se ova činjenica obrađuje u vestima?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

A tabulation of positive and negative emotion words in news stories

Tabelisanje pozitivnih i negativnih emocionalnih reči u pričama iz vesti

has shown that during the decades in which humanity has gotten healthier,

je pokazalo da je tokom decenija u kojima je čovečanstvo postajalo zdravije,

wealthier, wiser, safer and happier,

bogatije, mudrije, bezbednije i srećnije,

the "New York Times" has become increasingly morose

"Njujork tajms" je postajao sve turobniji

and the world's broadcasts too have gotten steadily glummer.

kao i svetski mediji koji su sve češće postajali mrzovoljniji.

Why don't people appreciate progress?

Zašto ljudi ne cene napredak?

Part of the answer comes from our cognitive psychology.

Odgovor delimično potiče iz naše kognitivne psihologije.

We estimate risk using a mental shortcut called the "availability heuristic."

Ocenjujemo rizik upotrebom umne prečice koja se naziva "heuristikom dostupnosti".

The easier it is to recall something from memory,

Što je lakše setiti se nečega iz pamćenja,

the more probable we judge it to be.

time prosuđujemo njegovu verovatnoću.

The other part of the answer comes from the nature of journalism,

Drugi deo odgovora potiče iz prirode novinarstva,

captured in this satirical headline from "The Onion,"

koja je obuhvaćena ovim satiričnim naslovom iz "Oniona":

"CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide

"Si-En-En imao jutarnji sastanak da bi odlučili

What Viewers Should Panic About For Rest of Day."

zbog čega bi gledaoci trebalo da paniče do kraja dana."

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

News is about stuff that happens, not stuff that doesn't happen.

Vesti su o onome što se dešava, ne o onome što se ne dešava.

You never see a journalist who says,

Nikada niste videli novinara koji govori:

"I'm reporting live from a country that has been at peace for 40 years,"

„Izveštavam uživo iz države koja je u miru već 40 godina",

or a city that has not been attacked by terrorists.

ili o gradu u kome se nije desio teroristički napad.

Also, bad things can happen quickly,

Takođe, loše stvari mogu brzo da se dese,

but good things aren't built in a day.

a dobre stvari se ne dešavaju preko noći.

The papers could have run the headline,

Novine su mogle da imaju naslov:

"137,000 people escaped from extreme poverty yesterday"

„137.000 ljudi je juče izašlo iz ekstremnog siromaštva"

every day for the last 25 years.

svakog dana u proteklih 25 godina.

That's one and a quarter billion people leaving poverty behind,

To je jedna i četvrtina milijardi ljudi kojima je siromaštvo prošlost,

but you never read about it.

ali nikada ne čitate o tome.

Also, the news capitalizes on our morbid interest

Takođe, vesti prihoduju od naših morbidnih interesovanja

in what can go wrong,

o tome šta bi moglo poći po zlu,

captured in the programming policy, "If it bleeds, it leads."

koje je obuhvaćeno programskom politikom: "Ako ima krvi, biće i publike".

Well, if you combine our cognitive biases with the nature of news,

Pa, ako kombinujete naše kognitivne predrasude sa prirodom vesti,

you can see why the world has been coming to an end

videćete zašto se svetu bliži kraj

for a very long time indeed.

uistinu već poduže vremena.

Let me address some questions about progress

Osvrnuću se na neka pitanja o napretku

that no doubt have occurred to many of you.

koja su bez sumnje mnogima od vas pala na pamet.

First, isn't it good to be pessimistic

Pre svega, zar nije dobro biti pesimističan

to safeguard against complacency,

kako bi se zaštitili od pomirljivosti,

to rake the muck, to speak truth to power?

razotkrili prljave igrače, rekli istinu onima na vlasti?

Well, not exactly.

Pa, ne baš.

It's good to be accurate.

Dobro je biti precizan.

Of course we should be aware of suffering and danger

Naravno, trebalo bi da smo svesni patnje i opasnosti

wherever they occur,

gde god da se dese,

but we should also be aware of how they can be reduced,

no takođe bi trebalo da smo svesni toga kako možemo da ih umanjimo

because there are dangers to indiscriminate pessimism.

jer opasnost leži u nediskriminatorskom pesimizmu.

One of them is fatalism.

Jedan od tih je fatalizam.

If all our efforts at improving the world

Ako su svi naši napori da unapredimo svet

have been in vain,

bili uzaludni,

why throw good money after bad?

zašto bismo bacali novac u bescenje?

The poor will always be with you.

Siromašni će uvek da budu tu.

And since the world will end soon --

A kako će svetu uskoro doći kraj -

if climate change doesn't kill us all,

ako nas klimatske promene sve ne potamane,

then runaway artificial intelligence will --

uradiće će to odbegla veštačka inteligencija -

a natural response is to enjoy life while we can,

prirodan odgovor je da uživamo u životu dok možemo,

eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die.

jedemo, pijemo i radujemo se jer ćemo sutra da umremo.

The other danger of thoughtless pessimism is radicalism.

Druga opasnost nepromišljenog pesimizma je radikalizam.

If our institutions are all failing and beyond hope for reform,

Ako naše institucije ne funkcionišu i nema nade za reforme,

a natural response is to seek to smash the machine,

prirodan odgovor je da se teži uništenju mašine,

drain the swamp,

da se isuši močvara,

burn the empire to the ground,

carstvo spali do temelja,

on the hope that whatever rises out of the ashes

s nadom da šta god da se podigne iz pepela

is bound to be better than what we have now.

sigurno će da bude bolje od onoga što trenutno imamo.

Well, if there is such a thing as progress,

Pa, ako postoji nešto takvo kao napredak,

what causes it?

šta ga uzrokuje?

Progress is not some mystical force or dialectic lifting us ever higher.

Napredak nije neka tajnovita sila ili dijalektičko uznošenje više i više.

It's not a mysterious arc of history bending toward justice.

Nije to tajanstveni svod istorije koji se poginje ka pravdi.

It's the result of human efforts governed by an idea,

To je rezultat ljudskih napora koje vodi ideja,

an idea that we associate with the 18th century Enlightenment,

ideja koju povezujemo sa prosvetiteljstvom iz XVIII veka,

namely that if we apply reason and science

pre svega da, ako primenimo razum i nauku

that enhance human well-being,

koji naglašavaju ljudsku dobrobit,

we can gradually succeed.

vremenom ćemo da uspemo.

Is progress inevitable? Of course not.

Da li je napredak neizbežan? Naravno da nije.

Progress does not mean that everything becomes better

Napredak ne znači da sve postaje bolje

for everyone everywhere all the time.

za svakoga, svuda, sve vreme.

That would be a miracle, and progress is not a miracle

To bi bilo čudo, a napredak nije čudo,

but problem-solving.

već rešavanje problema.

Problems are inevitable

Problemi su neizbežni,

and solutions create new problems which have to be solved in their turn.

a rešenja stvaraju nove probleme koje u tom slučaju treba rešiti.

The unsolved problems facing the world today are gargantuan,

Nerešeni problemi sa kojima se suočava današnji svet su džinovski,

including the risks of climate change

uključujući i rizik od klimatskih promena

and nuclear war,

i nuklearnog rata,

but we must see them as problems to be solved,

ali moramo da gledamo na njih kao na probleme koje treba rešiti,

not apocalypses in waiting,

a ne kao apokalipse u najavi,

and aggressively pursue solutions

i moramo agresivno da tragamo za rešenjima

like Deep Decarbonization for climate change

poput Dubinske dekarbonizacije za klimatske promene

and Global Zero for nuclear war.

i Globalne nule za nuklearni rat.

Finally, does the Enlightenment go against human nature?

Naposletku, da li je prosvetiteljstvo suprotstavljeno ljudskoj prirodi?

This is an acute question for me,

Ovo je akutno pitanje za mene

because I'm a prominent advocate of the existence of human nature,

jer sam istaknuti zastupnik toga da postoji ljudska priroda

with all its shortcomings and perversities.

sa svim njenim manama i izopačenostima.

In my book "The Blank Slate,"

U mojoj knjizi „Prazna ploča",

I argued that the human prospect is more tragic than utopian

raspravljao sam o tome da su ljudski izgledi pre tragični nego utopijski

and that we are not stardust, we are not golden

i da nismo zvezdana prašina, nismo zlatni

and there's no way we are getting back to the garden.

i da nema šanse da ćemo se vratiti u raj.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But my worldview has lightened up

Međutim, moj pogled na svet se ozario

in the 15 years since "The Blank Slate" was published.

tokom 15 godina otkad je objavljena „Prazna ploča".

My acquaintance with the statistics of human progress,

Moja upućenost u statistiku ljudskog napretka,

starting with violence

počevši sa nasiljem,

but now encompassing every other aspect of our well-being,

ali koja sada obuhvata sve druge aspekte našeg blagostanja,

has fortified my belief

učvrstila je moje uverenje

that in understanding our tribulations and woes,

da razmevajući naša stradanja i jade,

human nature is the problem,

ljudska priroda jeste problem,

but human nature, channeled by Enlightenment norms and institutions,

ali ljudska priroda, kanalisana normama prosvetiteljstva i institucija,

is also the solution.

takođe je rešenje.

Admittedly, it's not easy to replicate my own data-driven epiphany

Priznaću, nije lako duplikovati na veliko moje lično proviđenje vođeno podacima

with humanity at large.

u vezi sa čovečanstvom.

Some intellectuals have responded

Neki intelektualci su reagovali gnevno

with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now,"

na moju knjigu „Prosvetiteljstvo sad",

saying first how dare he claim that intellectuals hate progress,

govoreći, pre svega, kako se usuđujem da tvrdim da intelektualci mrze napredak,

and second, how dare he claim that there has been progress.

a zatim, kako se usuđujem da tvrdim da uopšte ima napretka.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

With others, the idea of progress just leaves them cold.

Druge, ideja napretka prosto ostavlja ravnodušnim.

Saving the lives of billions,

Spašavanje milijardi života,

eradicating disease, feeding the hungry,

iskorenjivanje bolesti, hranjenje gladnih,

teaching kids to read?

podučavanje dece čitanju?

Boring.

Dosadno.

At the same time, the most common response I have received from readers is gratitude,

Istovremeno, najuobičajeniji odgovor koji sam dobio od čitalaca je zahvalnost,

gratitude for changing their view of the world

zahvalnost što sam im promenio pogled na svet

from a numb and helpless fatalism

od parališućeg i beznadežnog fatalizma

to something more constructive,

u nešto konstruktivnije,

even heroic.

čak junačko.

I believe that the ideals of the Enlightenment

Verujem da ideali prosvetiteljstva

can be cast a stirring narrative,

mogu da pruže uzbudljiv narativ

and I hope that people with greater artistic flare

i nadam se da ljudi većeg umetničkog nadahnuća

and rhetorical power than I

i retoričke moći od mene

can tell it better and spread it further.

mogu to bolje da ispričaju i prenesu dalje.

It goes something like this.

Priča glasi nekako ovako.

We are born into a pitiless universe,

Rođeni smo u nemilosrdnom univerzumu,

facing steep odds against life-enabling order

suočeni sa tankim šansama protiv poretka koji omogućuje život

and in constant jeopardy of falling apart.

i u konstantnoj opasnosti od raspadanja.

We were shaped by a process that is ruthlessly competitive.

Oblikovao nas je proces nemilosrdnog takmičenja.

We are made from crooked timber,

Sačinjeni smo od rđavog kova,

vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness

podložni iluzijama, samozaljubljenosti

and at times astounding stupidity.

i ponekad zapanjujućoj glupošću.

Yet human nature has also been blessed with resources

Ipak, ljudska priroda je takođe blagoslovena resursima

that open a space for a kind of redemption.

koji oslobađaju prostor za neki vid iskupljenja.

We are endowed with the power to combine ideas recursively,

Obdareni smo moći da iznova kombinujemo ideje,

to have thoughts about our thoughts.

da imamo misli o našim mislima.

We have an instinct for language,

Imamo instinkt za jezik,

allowing us to share the fruits of our ingenuity and experience.

koji nam omogućuje da delimo plodove naše genijalnosti i iskustva.

We are deepened with the capacity for sympathy,

Produhovljeni smo sposobnošću za saučešće,

for pity, imagination, compassion, commiseration.

za sažaljenje, maštu, samilost, saosećanje.

These endowments have found ways to magnify their own power.

Ove obdarenosti su pronašle način da uvećavaju sopstvenu moć.

The scope of language has been augmented

Opseg jezika je proširen

by the written, printed and electronic word.

pisanom, štampanom i elektronskom rečju.

Our circle of sympathy has been expanded

Naš krug saosećanja je proširen

by history, journalism and the narrative arts.

istorijom, novinarstvom i pripovednim umetnostima.

And our puny rational faculties have been multiplied

A naše slabašne racionalne moći su umnožene

by the norms and institutions of reason,

normama i institucijama razuma,

intellectual curiosity, open debate,

intelektualnom znatiželjom, otvorenom debatom,

skepticism of authority and dogma

skepticizmom prema autoritetu i dogmi

and the burden of proof to verify ideas

i teretom dokaza da se potvrde ideje

by confronting them against reality.

tako što ih suočavamo sa stvarnošću.

As the spiral of recursive improvement

Kako spirala trajnog napretka

gathers momentum,

dobija zamah,

we eke out victories against the forces that grind us down,

crpimo naše pobede protiv sila koje nas mrve,

not least the darker parts of our own nature.

koje su ništa manje nego mračni delovi naše sopstvene prirode.

We penetrate the mysteries of the cosmos, including life and mind.

Prodiremo u tajne kosmosa, uključujući život i um.

We live longer, suffer less, learn more,

Živimo duže, patimo manje, učimo više,

get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures

postajemo pametniji i više uživamo u sitnim zadovoljstvima

and rich experiences.

i bogatim iskustvima.

Fewer of us are killed, assaulted, enslaved, exploited

Manje ginemo, manje nas napadaju, porobljavaju, izrabljuju

or oppressed by the others.

ili tlače drugi.

From a few oases, the territories with peace and prosperity are growing

Iz nekoliko oaza, teritorije mira i napretka rastu

and could someday encompass the globe.

i mogle bi jednog dana da obuhvate planetu.

Much suffering remains

Ostalo je još mnogo patnje

and tremendous peril,

i ogromnih opasnosti,

but ideas on how to reduce them have been voiced,

ali uobličene su ideje o tome kako da ih umanjimo

and an infinite number of others are yet to be conceived.

a još bezbroj drugih tek treba da se začne.

We will never have a perfect world,

Nikada nećemo da imamo savršen svet,

and it would be dangerous to seek one.

i bilo bi opasno tragati za njim.

But there's no limit to the betterments we can attain

Ali nema granice unapređenjima koja možemo da postignemo,

if we continue to apply knowledge to enhance human flourishing.

ako nastavimo da primenjujemo znanje kako bi uvećali ljudski procvat.

This heroic story is not just another myth.

Ova junačka priča nije tek još jedan mit.

Myths are fictions, but this one is true,

Mitovi su fikcija, ali ova priča je istinita,

true to the best of our knowledge, which is the only truth we can have.

istinita što se tiče našeg znanja koje je jedina istina koju imamo.

As we learn more,

Kako učimo više,

we can show which parts of the story continue to be true and which ones false,

možemo da pokažemo koji delovi priče su i dalje tačni, a koji nisu,

as any of them might be and any could become.

kao što bilo koji može da bude i bilo koji može da postane.

And this story belongs not to any tribe

I ova priča ne pripada bilo kom plemenu,

but to all of humanity,

već celokupnom čovečanstvu,

to any sentient creature with the power of reason

bilo kom svesnom biću koje poseduje moć razuma

and the urge to persist in its being,

i nagon da istraje u svom postojanju

for it requires only the convictions

jer ona zahteva samo ubeđenje

that life is better than death,

da je život bolji od smrti,

health is better than sickness,

zdravlje je bolje od bolesti,

abundance is better than want,

obilje je bolje od oskudice,

freedom is better than coercion,

sloboda je bolje od prinude,

happiness is better than suffering

sreća je bolja od patnje

and knowledge is better than ignorance and superstition.

a znanje je bolje od neznanja i sujeverja.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)