Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker

1,485,047 views ・ 2018-05-21

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翻译人员: jacks peng 校对人员: Melody Tang
00:13
Many people face the news each morning
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每天早晨,很多人都面对着
00:16
with trepidation and dread.
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充满不安和恐惧的新闻。
00:18
Every day, we read of shootings,
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每天,我们都会读到枪击案,
00:21
inequality, pollution, dictatorship,
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不平等、污染、独裁统治、
00:25
war and the spread of nuclear weapons.
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战争和核武器扩散的消息。
00:28
These are some of the reasons
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这些是 2016 年
00:30
that 2016 was called the "Worst. Year. Ever."
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被称为“史上最糟糕的一年”的部分原因。
00:35
Until 2017 claimed that record --
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直到 2017 年再创新高——
00:38
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
00:39
and left many people longing for earlier decades,
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这使得很多人不禁 怀念几十年前的日子,
00:42
when the world seemed safer, cleaner and more equal.
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那时世界看来更安全,清净和平等。
00:46
But is this a sensible way to understand the human condition
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但这是理解 21 世纪人类生存状况的
00:50
in the 21st century?
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合理方式吗?
00:52
As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out,
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就如富兰克林 · 皮尔斯 · 亚当斯指出的那样:
00:54
"Nothing is more responsible for the good old days
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“怀念往昔美好时光的人的记忆
00:57
than a bad memory."
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一定糟透了。“
00:58
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:01
You can always fool yourself into seeing a decline
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如果你拿现在的新闻头条
01:05
if you compare bleeding headlines of the present
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跟过去玫瑰色的图片相对比,
01:07
with rose-tinted images of the past.
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你就总会以为自己 正面临着世风日下的局面。
01:10
What does the trajectory of the world look like
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当我们用恒定的尺度 来衡量幸福感时,
01:13
when we measure well-being over time using a constant yardstick?
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世界的变化轨迹会是什么样呢?
01:17
Let's compare the most recent data on the present
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让我们用同样的方法 来比较最新的数据
01:20
with the same measures 30 years ago.
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和 30 年前的数据。
01:23
Last year, Americans killed each other at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,
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去年,美国每 10 万人中有 5.3 人死于凶杀,
01:28
had seven percent of their citizens in poverty
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7%的贫困人口,
01:31
and emitted 21 million tons of particulate matter
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排放了 2100 万吨的微粒物质,
01:35
and four million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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以及 400 万吨的二氧化硫。
01:38
But 30 years ago, the homicide rate was 8.5 per hundred thousand,
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而 30 年前,每 10 万人中 有 8.5 人死于凶杀,
01:42
poverty rate was 12 percent
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贫困率为 12 %,
01:44
and we emitted 35 million tons of particulate matter
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我们排放了 3500 万吨的微粒物质,
01:47
and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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以及 2000 万吨的二氧化硫。
01:51
What about the world as a whole?
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那么世界整体情况如何?
01:53
Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars,
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去年,全球共有 12 场战争,
01:56
60 autocracies,
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60 个独裁政权,
01:59
10 percent of the world population in extreme poverty
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10% 的极端贫穷人口
02:02
and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.
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以及超过 1 万件核武器。
02:05
But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars,
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而 30 年前,一共有 23 场战争,
02:08
85 autocracies,
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85 个独裁政权,
02:10
37 percent of the world population in extreme poverty
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37 %的全球人口极度贫困
02:13
and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.
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以及超过 6 万件核武器。
02:17
True, last year was a terrible year for terrorism in Western Europe,
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的确,去年是西欧恐怖主义 十分猖獗的一年,
02:21
with 238 deaths,
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共造成 238 人死亡,
02:24
but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.
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但 1988 年更糟,有 440 人死亡。
02:28
What's going on?
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这是怎么回事?
02:30
Was 1988 a particularly bad year?
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1988 年是尤其糟糕的一年吗?
02:33
Or are these improvements a sign that the world, for all its struggles,
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或者,这是世界进步的迹象,
02:37
gets better over time?
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在挣扎中,越变越好?
02:39
Might we even invoke the admittedly old-fashioned notion of progress?
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我们是否可以援引 公认的过时了进步观念?
02:45
To do so is to court a certain amount of derision,
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这样做会招来一些嘲笑,
02:49
because I have found that intellectuals hate progress.
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因为我发现知识分子憎恨进步。
02:53
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:54
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
02:57
And intellectuals who call themselves progressive really hate progress.
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自称进步的知识分子真的讨厌进步。
03:01
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:02
Now, it's not that they hate the fruits of progress, mind you.
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请注意,我并不是说 他们讨厌进步的成果。
03:05
Most academics and pundits
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大多数学者和专家
03:08
would rather have their surgery with anesthesia than without it.
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做手术时还是会选择用麻醉, 而非什么都不用。
03:13
It's the idea of progress that rankles the chattering class.
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让这些喋喋不休的人不满的, 是进步的观点。
03:17
If you believe that humans can improve their lot, I have been told,
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如果你相信人类可以改善命运, 正如我被告知的那样,
03:21
that means that you have a blind faith
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这意味着你有着盲目的信仰,
03:23
and a quasi-religious belief in the outmoded superstition
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一种类似宗教的落后迷信,
相信对不可阻挡的进步神话的
03:28
and the false promise of the myth of the onward march
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03:31
of inexorable progress.
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虚假承诺。
03:34
You are a cheerleader for vulgar American can-doism,
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你是粗俗的美国佬的啦啦队长,
03:39
with the rah-rah spirit of boardroom ideology,
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拥有董事会的意识形态,硅谷和商会的
03:42
Silicon Valley and the Chamber of Commerce.
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拉拉队精神。
03:45
You are a practitioner of Whig history,
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你是辉格历史的实践者,
03:48
a naive optimist, a Pollyanna and, of course, a Pangloss,
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一位天真的乐观主义者, 你就像是潘格劳斯,
03:52
alluding to the Voltaire character who declared,
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伏尔泰小说里的角色,曾宣称:
03:55
"All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds."
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“在理想的最美好的世界中, 一切都是为最美好的目的而设。“
03:58
Well, Professor Pangloss, as it happens, was a pessimist.
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好吧,潘格劳斯教授 碰巧是个悲观主义者。
04:01
A true optimist believes there can be much better worlds
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一个真正的乐观主义者相信 存在着比我们今天拥有的
04:04
than the one we have today.
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更好的世界。
04:06
But all of this is irrelevant,
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但所有这些都无关紧要,
04:07
because the question of whether progress has taken place
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因为进步是否发生
04:10
is not a matter of faith
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与信念无关,
04:12
or having an optimistic temperament or seeing the glass as half full.
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也不取决于是否拥有乐观气质, 或是看到了半杯水(而不是半个空杯子)。
04:16
It's a testable hypothesis.
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而是一个可检验的假设。
04:18
For all their differences,
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尽管各有分歧,
04:20
people largely agree on what goes into human well-being:
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在很大程度上人们会一致认为, 人类的幸福包括以下因素:
04:24
life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,
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生命、健康、生计、繁荣、 和平、自由、安全、知识、
04:30
leisure, happiness.
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休闲、快乐。
04:32
All of these things can be measured.
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这些东西都可以测量。
04:34
If they have improved over time, that, I submit, is progress.
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如果它们随时间得到改善, 我认为就是进步。
04:38
Let's go to the data,
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让我们看看数据。
04:40
beginning with the most precious thing of all, life.
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从最珍贵的东西开始,生命。
04:43
For most of human history, life expectancy at birth was around 30.
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在人类历史长河的大部分时期中, 预期寿命为 30 岁上下。
04:48
Today, worldwide, it is more than 70,
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今天,全球平均寿命超过了70岁,
04:51
and in the developed parts of the world,
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在发达国家,
则超过80岁。
04:53
more than 80.
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04:55
250 years ago, in the richest countries of the world,
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250 年前,在全球最富有的国家,
04:58
a third of the children did not live to see their fifth birthday,
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在风险被降低一百倍之前,
05:02
before the risk was brought down a hundredfold.
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1/3 的儿童活不到五岁。
05:05
Today, that fate befalls less than six percent of children
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今天,婴儿死亡率在全球最贫穷的国家
05:08
in the poorest countries of the world.
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也已经降低到 6 %以下。
05:11
Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
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饥荒是世界末日的四骑士之一。
05:15
It could bring devastation to any part of the world.
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它可以给世界上任何地方带来毁灭。
05:18
Today, famine has been banished
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今天,饥荒已经被驱逐至
05:20
to the most remote and war-ravaged regions.
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最偏远和饱受战争蹂躏的地区。
05:23
200 years ago, 90 percent of the world's population
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200 年前,90 %的世界人口
05:26
subsisted in extreme poverty.
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处于极端贫困。
05:29
Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do.
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今天只有不到 10 %的人如此。
05:32
For most of human history,
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在人类大部分的历史中,
05:34
the powerful states and empires
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强大的国家和帝国
05:36
were pretty much always at war with each other,
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总是彼此交战,
05:38
and peace was a mere interlude between wars.
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而和平只是战争之间的插曲。
05:42
Today, they are never at war with each other.
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今天,他们不再彼此开战。
05:44
The last great power war
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上一场大国之间的战争
05:46
pitted the United States against China 65 years ago.
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发生在 65 年前的中国和美国。
05:50
More recently, wars of all kinds have become fewer and less deadly.
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最近,各种各样的战争发生得 越来越少,伤亡人数也有所下降。
05:54
The annual rate of war has fallen from about 22 per hundred thousand per year
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每年的战争死亡率 从 50 年代的 10 万分之 22
05:59
in the early '50s to 1.2 today.
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下降至今天的 10 万分之 1.2。
06:03
Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks
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民主在委内瑞拉,俄罗斯,土耳其
06:05
in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey
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遭受了明显的挫折,
06:09
and is threatened by the rise of authoritarian populism
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并在东欧和美国受到了
06:12
in Eastern Europe and the United States.
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来自独裁民粹主义崛起的威胁。
06:15
Yet the world has never been more democratic
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但是相比过去的时代,
06:17
than it has been in the past decade,
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世界从来没有如此民主,
06:19
with two-thirds of the world's people living in democracies.
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全球 2/3 的人口生活在民主国家。
06:24
Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy and the code of vendetta
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每当无政府状态和仇杀行为 被法治取代时,
06:28
are replaced by the rule of law.
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凶杀犯罪率就会下降。
06:30
It happened when feudal Europe was brought under the control of centralized kingdoms,
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这发生在封建的欧洲 被中央王国控制时,
06:35
so that today a Western European
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所以今天西欧人
06:37
has 1/35th the chance of being murdered
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被谋杀的几率是
06:39
compared to his medieval ancestors.
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他们中世纪祖先的 1/35。
06:42
It happened again in colonial New England,
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这也发生在新英格兰的殖民地,
06:44
in the American Wild West when the sheriffs moved to town,
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治安官进驻后的美国西部小镇,
06:48
and in Mexico.
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以及墨西哥等地。
06:50
Indeed, we've become safer in just about every way.
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我们的确在各个方面 都变得更安全了。
06:54
Over the last century, we've become 96 percent less likely
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上个世纪以来, 我们死于交通事故的概率
06:58
to be killed in a car crash,
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降低了 96 %。
07:00
88 percent less likely to be mowed down on the sidewalk,
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在人行道上被撞倒的概率 降低了88 %。
07:04
99 percent less likely to die in a plane crash,
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飞机事故死亡率下降了 99 %。
07:08
95 percent less likely to be killed on the job,
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因公殉职的概率也降低了 95 %。
07:11
89 percent less likely to be killed by an act of God,
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死于大自然因素的 概率也降低了 89 %,
07:15
such as a drought, flood, wildfire, storm, volcano,
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比如干旱,洪水,野火,风暴,火山,
07:19
landslide, earthquake or meteor strike,
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山崩、地震或流星撞击。
07:22
presumably not because God has become less angry with us
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应该不是因为 上帝对我们不再那么生气了,
07:25
but because of improvements in the resilience of our infrastructure.
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而是因为我们的基础设施的 应变能力提高了。
07:30
And what about the quintessential act of God,
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那么,典型的天灾,
07:33
the projectile hurled by Zeus himself?
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宙斯自己投掷的炮弹呢?
07:36
Yes, we are 97 percent less likely to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
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没错,我们被闪电击中的 概率降低了 97 %。
07:43
Before the 17th century,
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17 世纪以前,
07:45
no more than 15 percent of Europeans could read or write.
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不到 15 %的欧洲人能读会写。
07:48
Europe and the United States achieved universal literacy
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欧洲和美国在 20 世纪中叶
07:51
by the middle of the 20th century,
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就消灭了文盲,
07:53
and the rest of the world is catching up.
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世界其他地方也在陆续跟上。
07:56
Today, more than 90 percent of the world's population
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今天,全球年龄在 25 岁以下的人中,
07:59
under the age of 25 can read and write.
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超过 90 %的人口能读会写。
08:03
In the 19th century, Westerners worked more than 60 hours per week.
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在 19 世纪,西方人每周工作时间 远远超过 60 个小时。
08:07
Today, they work fewer than 40.
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今天,这个数字已经低于 40 小时。
08:10
Thanks to the universal penetration of running water and electricity
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得益于发达国家
自来水和电的普及,
08:14
in the developed world
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08:16
and the widespread adoption of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,
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以及洗衣机,真空吸尘器,
08:20
refrigerators, dishwashers, stoves and microwaves,
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冰箱、洗碗机、炉子和 微波炉的广泛使用,
08:24
the amount of our lives that we forfeit to housework
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我们花费在家务上的时间
08:27
has fallen from 60 hours a week
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从一周 60 个小时
08:29
to fewer than 15 hours a week.
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下降至每周不到 15 小时。
08:32
Do all of these gains in health, wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure
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在健康、财富、安全、知识 和休闲方面的这些进步
08:37
make us any happier?
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让我们更加幸福了吗?
08:39
The answer is yes.
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答案是肯定的。
08:40
In 86 percent of the world's countries,
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全球 86 %的国家中,
08:42
happiness has increased in recent decades.
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幸福指数在最近几十年来都在增长。
08:45
Well, I hope to have convinced you
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好了,我希望我已经说服你们
08:47
that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism,
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进步无关信念或乐观,
08:51
but is a fact of human history,
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而是人类历史的事实,
08:53
indeed the greatest fact in human history.
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确实是人类历史上最伟大的事实。
08:56
And how has this fact been covered in the news?
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而这些事实是如何 被新闻媒体报道的呢?
08:59
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:03
A tabulation of positive and negative emotion words in news stories
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新闻故事中积极和消极的情绪词汇表
09:07
has shown that during the decades in which humanity has gotten healthier,
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已证明,在过去几十年里 人类变得更健康,
09:11
wealthier, wiser, safer and happier,
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更富有,更聪明,更安全,更快乐。
09:13
the "New York Times" has become increasingly morose
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《纽约时报》的措辞却变得越来越阴郁,
全球的广播节目的腔调 也变得越来越阴沉。
09:18
and the world's broadcasts too have gotten steadily glummer.
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09:22
Why don't people appreciate progress?
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为什么人们不感激这些进步?
09:25
Part of the answer comes from our cognitive psychology.
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部分答案来自于我们的认知心理学。
09:28
We estimate risk using a mental shortcut called the "availability heuristic."
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我们用一个名为“可得性启发”的 心理捷径来估计危险。
09:33
The easier it is to recall something from memory,
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一件越容易被回忆起来的事,
09:36
the more probable we judge it to be.
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我们就越可能认为它就是那样。
09:39
The other part of the answer comes from the nature of journalism,
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另外一部分答案来自于新闻业的本质,
09:42
captured in this satirical headline from "The Onion,"
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这个讽刺性的头条取自“洋葱新闻“,
09:46
"CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide
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“美国有线电视新闻网 CNN 开早会决定
09:48
What Viewers Should Panic About For Rest of Day."
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观众在这一天应当对什么感到恐慌。“
09:50
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:52
(Applause)
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(掌声)
09:57
News is about stuff that happens, not stuff that doesn't happen.
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新闻是报道那些正在发生的事, 而不是没有发生的事。
10:01
You never see a journalist who says,
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你从没见过一个记者说,
10:03
"I'm reporting live from a country that has been at peace for 40 years,"
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“我正在一个40年来 局势都很稳定的国家直播”,
10:07
or a city that has not been attacked by terrorists.
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或者在一个从来没有被 恐怖分子袭击的城市直播。
10:10
Also, bad things can happen quickly,
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另外,坏事可能会瞬间发生,
10:13
but good things aren't built in a day.
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但是好事却不是一天能成的。
10:15
The papers could have run the headline,
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新闻媒体可以在 过去25年中。每天都使用
10:17
"137,000 people escaped from extreme poverty yesterday"
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“昨天有 13 万 7 千人脱离了极端贫困”
10:22
every day for the last 25 years.
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这个标题。
10:24
That's one and a quarter billion people leaving poverty behind,
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也就是说,总共有 12.5 亿人脱离了贫困,
10:29
but you never read about it.
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但是你从来没有看到过这一条新闻。
10:31
Also, the news capitalizes on our morbid interest
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而且,新闻报道还会利用我们对
哪里会出现问题的病态兴趣,
10:34
in what can go wrong,
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10:35
captured in the programming policy, "If it bleeds, it leads."
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其规划政策是“越血腥越吸睛”。
10:40
Well, if you combine our cognitive biases with the nature of news,
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如果将我们的认知偏差和 新闻的本质相结合,
10:43
you can see why the world has been coming to an end
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你就可以了解为什么这个世界
10:46
for a very long time indeed.
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的确是在很久以前 就开始走向末日了。
10:50
Let me address some questions about progress
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让我提出几个关于进步的问题,
10:52
that no doubt have occurred to many of you.
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豪无疑问这些进步 在你们很多人身上都发生过。
10:56
First, isn't it good to be pessimistic
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首先,成为一个悲观主义者,
10:59
to safeguard against complacency,
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可以防范自满、清清除糟粕,
11:01
to rake the muck, to speak truth to power?
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向当权者说实话,这有什么不好吗?
11:04
Well, not exactly.
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其实,这样未必好。
11:06
It's good to be accurate.
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能做到精确是很好的。
11:08
Of course we should be aware of suffering and danger
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当然我们都应当知道
痛苦和危险发生的地方,
11:10
wherever they occur,
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11:12
but we should also be aware of how they can be reduced,
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但是我们也应当知道 如何去减少它们。
11:15
because there are dangers to indiscriminate pessimism.
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因为不分青红皂白的 悲观主义是危险的。
11:18
One of them is fatalism.
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其中一个例子就是宿命论。
11:20
If all our efforts at improving the world
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如果我们所有 推动这个世界进步的努力
11:22
have been in vain,
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都是徒劳的,
11:23
why throw good money after bad?
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为什么我们还要去做无用功?
11:25
The poor will always be with you.
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反正贫穷无论如何都会一直跟随你。
11:28
And since the world will end soon --
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并且既然这个世界 很快就要完蛋了——
11:30
if climate change doesn't kill us all,
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如果气候变化没有将我们全都干掉,
11:32
then runaway artificial intelligence will --
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那么失控的人工智能也会——
11:34
a natural response is to enjoy life while we can,
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自然的反应就是,乐在当下吧,
11:38
eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die.
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吃喝玩乐,同时坐以待毙。
11:42
The other danger of thoughtless pessimism is radicalism.
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轻率的悲观主义的 另一个危险是激进主义。
11:46
If our institutions are all failing and beyond hope for reform,
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如果我们的机构都失败了, 改革的希望也破灭了,
11:50
a natural response is to seek to smash the machine,
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自然的反应就是砸烂机器,
11:53
drain the swamp,
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抽干沼泽,
11:55
burn the empire to the ground,
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把帝国烧成灰烬,
11:56
on the hope that whatever rises out of the ashes
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抱着灰烬中无论长出什么
12:00
is bound to be better than what we have now.
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都要好于当下的幻想。
12:03
Well, if there is such a thing as progress,
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那么,如果真的有进步这个东西,
12:06
what causes it?
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是什么导致了进步呢?
12:07
Progress is not some mystical force or dialectic lifting us ever higher.
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进步并不是某种神秘力量或辩证法, 可以将我们推向更高的境界。
12:12
It's not a mysterious arc of history bending toward justice.
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它不是一条屈服于正义的神秘弧线。
12:16
It's the result of human efforts governed by an idea,
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进步是人类在一种思想 指引下努力的结果。
12:19
an idea that we associate with the 18th century Enlightenment,
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这个思想与 18 世纪的启蒙运动有关,
12:23
namely that if we apply reason and science
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那就是,如果我们运用理性和科学
12:28
that enhance human well-being,
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来提高人类的幸福水平,
12:30
we can gradually succeed.
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我们就可以逐渐取得成功。
12:32
Is progress inevitable? Of course not.
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进步是不可避免的吗? 当然不是。
12:36
Progress does not mean that everything becomes better
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进步并不意味着所有人在任何地方,
任何时候都能变得更好。
12:39
for everyone everywhere all the time.
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12:42
That would be a miracle, and progress is not a miracle
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那就算得上是一个奇迹, 但进步并不是奇迹,
12:45
but problem-solving.
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而是解决问题的过程。
12:47
Problems are inevitable
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问题不可避免,
12:49
and solutions create new problems which have to be solved in their turn.
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解决问题的方案还会带来新的问题, 这些问题在未来必须解决。
12:53
The unsolved problems facing the world today are gargantuan,
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当今世界面临的 未解决的问题是巨大的,
12:57
including the risks of climate change
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包括气候变化
13:00
and nuclear war,
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和核武战争的风险。
13:01
but we must see them as problems to be solved,
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我们必须将其视为需要解决的问题,
13:04
not apocalypses in waiting,
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不能坐以待毙,
13:06
and aggressively pursue solutions
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而要积极寻求解决之道,
13:09
like Deep Decarbonization for climate change
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比如以深脱碳技术对应气候变化,
13:12
and Global Zero for nuclear war.
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和全球零核战。
13:15
Finally, does the Enlightenment go against human nature?
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最后一点,启蒙运动 是否违背了人类的本性?
13:19
This is an acute question for me,
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这对我来说是个尖锐的问题,
13:22
because I'm a prominent advocate of the existence of human nature,
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因为我是人类本性天然存在 这一观点的主要倡导者,
13:25
with all its shortcomings and perversities.
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尽管其中存在许多的缺点和不足。
13:28
In my book "The Blank Slate,"
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在我的书《白板》中,
13:30
I argued that the human prospect is more tragic than utopian
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我认为人类的前景比乌托邦更悲惨,
13:34
and that we are not stardust, we are not golden
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我们不是星尘,我们不是金色的,
13:37
and there's no way we are getting back to the garden.
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我们不可能回到伊甸园。
13:39
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
13:42
But my worldview has lightened up
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但是我的世界观
13:44
in the 15 years since "The Blank Slate" was published.
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随着 15 年前《白板》的出版改变了。
13:47
My acquaintance with the statistics of human progress,
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我对人类进步的统计数据的接触——
13:50
starting with violence
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从暴力开始,
13:51
but now encompassing every other aspect of our well-being,
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到现在涵盖了我们幸福的每一个方面——
13:55
has fortified my belief
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强化了我的信念,
13:57
that in understanding our tribulations and woes,
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即我们的困难和困境,
14:00
human nature is the problem,
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人性是主要的问题,
14:02
but human nature, channeled by Enlightenment norms and institutions,
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但是人性,在启蒙运动的 规范和制度引导下,
14:06
is also the solution.
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也可以是解决方案。
14:09
Admittedly, it's not easy to replicate my own data-driven epiphany
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不可否认,让人类普遍复制 我通过数据得到的洞察
14:14
with humanity at large.
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并不容易。
14:16
Some intellectuals have responded
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有些学者愤怒地反击
14:18
with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now,"
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我的书《当下的启蒙》说:
14:21
saying first how dare he claim that intellectuals hate progress,
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首先,他怎么敢宣称 知识分子痛恨进步,
14:25
and second, how dare he claim that there has been progress.
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第二,他怎么敢宣称 世界已经取得了进步。
14:28
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
14:32
With others, the idea of progress just leaves them cold.
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和其他人一样, 进步的概念对他们毫无意义。
14:35
Saving the lives of billions,
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拯救数十亿人的生命,
14:37
eradicating disease, feeding the hungry,
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消灭疾病,养活饥民,
14:40
teaching kids to read?
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教孩子识字?
14:42
Boring.
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太无聊了。
14:44
At the same time, the most common response I have received from readers is gratitude,
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同时,我得到的最常见的 反馈是读者的感谢,
14:49
gratitude for changing their view of the world
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为改变了他们对世界的看法而感激,
14:51
from a numb and helpless fatalism
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从麻木和无助的宿命论
14:54
to something more constructive,
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变得更具建设性,
14:55
even heroic.
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甚至更英勇。
14:57
I believe that the ideals of the Enlightenment
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我相信启蒙运动的理想
14:59
can be cast a stirring narrative,
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可以是一种激动人心的叙述。
15:01
and I hope that people with greater artistic flare
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我希望那些比我拥有 更丰富的艺术灵感
15:04
and rhetorical power than I
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和修辞力量的人,
15:06
can tell it better and spread it further.
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能够把这个故事讲述得更好, 并传播得更远。
15:09
It goes something like this.
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听起来就像这样:
15:12
We are born into a pitiless universe,
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我们生于无情的宇宙,
15:14
facing steep odds against life-enabling order
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面对着维持生命秩序的巨大挑战,
15:18
and in constant jeopardy of falling apart.
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并不断陷入分裂的危险之中。
15:21
We were shaped by a process that is ruthlessly competitive.
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我们成长于残酷的竞争过程。
15:25
We are made from crooked timber,
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我们是弯木头做的,
15:27
vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness
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容易幻想,以自我为中心,
15:30
and at times astounding stupidity.
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有时愚蠢到令人发指。
15:33
Yet human nature has also been blessed with resources
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然而,人类本性也被赋予了资源,
15:36
that open a space for a kind of redemption.
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为一种救赎打开了空间。
15:39
We are endowed with the power to combine ideas recursively,
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我们被赋予了以递归的方式 组合思想的力量,
15:42
to have thoughts about our thoughts.
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能够对个人的想法进行自省。
15:45
We have an instinct for language,
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我们有语言的本能,
15:47
allowing us to share the fruits of our ingenuity and experience.
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让我们可以分享智慧和经验成果。
15:51
We are deepened with the capacity for sympathy,
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我们因拥有怜悯、想象、
15:54
for pity, imagination, compassion, commiseration.
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慈悲、同理心的能力而深化。
15:59
These endowments have found ways to magnify their own power.
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这些天赐的能力也找到了 扩大其作用的方法。
16:03
The scope of language has been augmented
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语言的覆盖范围因手写,
16:05
by the written, printed and electronic word.
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印刷和电子文字而增加。
16:09
Our circle of sympathy has been expanded
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我们的同情圈
因历史,新闻和叙事艺术而扩大。
16:11
by history, journalism and the narrative arts.
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16:15
And our puny rational faculties have been multiplied
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通过理性的规范和制度,
16:18
by the norms and institutions of reason,
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好奇心,公开辩论,
16:20
intellectual curiosity, open debate,
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对权威和教条的怀疑,
16:24
skepticism of authority and dogma
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以及与现实对抗来验证想法的举证责任,
16:26
and the burden of proof to verify ideas
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我们微小的理性思考能力
16:29
by confronting them against reality.
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就会成倍增加。
16:32
As the spiral of recursive improvement
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随着递归改进的螺旋上升的
16:34
gathers momentum,
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势头不断增强,
16:36
we eke out victories against the forces that grind us down,
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我们战胜了让我们沮丧的力量,
16:40
not least the darker parts of our own nature.
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尤其是本性中较黑暗的部分。
16:43
We penetrate the mysteries of the cosmos, including life and mind.
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我们深入宇宙的奥秘, 包括生命和心灵。
16:48
We live longer, suffer less, learn more,
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我们活得更久,遭遇更少,学得更多,
16:52
get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures
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变得更聪明,享受更多的小乐趣
16:54
and rich experiences.
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以及更丰富的体验。
16:57
Fewer of us are killed, assaulted, enslaved, exploited
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更少的人被杀害,被袭击, 被奴役,被剥削,
17:01
or oppressed by the others.
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或被人压迫。
17:03
From a few oases, the territories with peace and prosperity are growing
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从最初的几块绿洲, 和平与繁荣的领土正在增长,
17:08
and could someday encompass the globe.
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终有一天,世界将会被其包围。
17:11
Much suffering remains
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苦难依旧,
17:13
and tremendous peril,
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危险尚存,
17:15
but ideas on how to reduce them have been voiced,
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但减少它们的方法已经被提出,
17:18
and an infinite number of others are yet to be conceived.
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还有无数其他的方法仍在孕育中。
17:22
We will never have a perfect world,
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我们永远不会拥有完美的世界,
17:24
and it would be dangerous to seek one.
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寻找完美世界的过程危机重重。
17:26
But there's no limit to the betterments we can attain
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如果我们继续将知识用于人类福祉,
17:29
if we continue to apply knowledge to enhance human flourishing.
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就会源源不断的获得更美好的东西。
17:34
This heroic story is not just another myth.
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这个英雄故事不是另一个神话。
17:37
Myths are fictions, but this one is true,
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神话是虚构的,但这是真的。
17:41
true to the best of our knowledge, which is the only truth we can have.
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这是我们所知道的最好的真理, 也是我们唯一能拥有的真理。
17:44
As we learn more,
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当我们懂得更多,
17:46
we can show which parts of the story continue to be true and which ones false,
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我们就可以展示故事的哪些部分 继续为真,哪些为假,
17:50
as any of them might be and any could become.
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而这一结果是随机的。
17:54
And this story belongs not to any tribe
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这个故事不属于任何一个部落,
17:56
but to all of humanity,
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而属于全人类,
17:58
to any sentient creature with the power of reason
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属于任何拥有离职和情感,
18:02
and the urge to persist in its being,
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以及维系自己生命的欲望的生物。
18:05
for it requires only the convictions
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因为它只需要相信
18:07
that life is better than death,
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活着好过死亡,
18:09
health is better than sickness,
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健康好过疾病,
18:11
abundance is better than want,
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富足好于渴求,
18:13
freedom is better than coercion,
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自由好于强迫,
18:16
happiness is better than suffering
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幸福好于痛苦,
18:18
and knowledge is better than ignorance and superstition.
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知识胜于无知和迷信。
18:22
Thank you.
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谢谢。
18:23
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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