Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker

1,485,047 views ・ 2018-05-21

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譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong
00:13
Many people face the news each morning
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許多人每天早上起床看新聞時,
00:16
with trepidation and dread.
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總帶著不安和恐懼的心情。
00:18
Every day, we read of shootings,
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每天,我們都會獲悉關於槍擊、
00:21
inequality, pollution, dictatorship,
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不平等、污染、獨裁、
00:25
war and the spread of nuclear weapons.
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戰爭,以及核武散布的資訊。
00:28
These are some of the reasons
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2016 年之所以被稱為
00:30
that 2016 was called the "Worst. Year. Ever."
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「史上最糟的一年」背後是有原因的。
00:35
Until 2017 claimed that record --
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直到 2017 年又更勝一籌 搶下這頭銜──
00:38
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:39
and left many people longing for earlier decades,
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讓許多人渴望能回到早期的年代,
00:42
when the world seemed safer, cleaner and more equal.
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回到世界似乎比較安全、 比較乾淨,且比較平等的年代。
00:46
But is this a sensible way to understand the human condition
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但在 21 世紀,用這樣的方式
來了解人類的條件,合理嗎?
00:50
in the 21st century?
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00:52
As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out,
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如富蘭克林·皮爾斯·亞當斯所言:
00:54
"Nothing is more responsible for the good old days
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「對於過去的好日子, 最需要負起責任的,
00:57
than a bad memory."
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就是不好的記憶。」
00:58
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:01
You can always fool yourself into seeing a decline
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你總是可以自欺欺人地看到衰落,
01:05
if you compare bleeding headlines of the present
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如果你把當前流血的頭條
01:07
with rose-tinted images of the past.
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拿來和過去染上玫瑰色的影像相比。
01:10
What does the trajectory of the world look like
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世界的軌道看起來會是什麼模樣,
01:13
when we measure well-being over time using a constant yardstick?
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如果我們用衡常不變的標準 來測量不同時間的幸福指數?
01:17
Let's compare the most recent data on the present
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讓我們拿最近的現代資料
01:20
with the same measures 30 years ago.
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和 30 年前同樣的測量值做比較。
01:23
Last year, Americans killed each other at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,
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去年,美國人自相殘殺的比率 是每十萬人就有 5.3 人,
01:28
had seven percent of their citizens in poverty
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貧窮公民的比率是 7%,
01:31
and emitted 21 million tons of particulate matter
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排放了 2100 萬噸的微粒狀物質,
01:35
and four million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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以及 400 萬噸的二氧化硫。
01:38
But 30 years ago, the homicide rate was 8.5 per hundred thousand,
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但 30 年前,謀殺案的比率 為每十萬人有 8.5 人,
01:42
poverty rate was 12 percent
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貧窮比率則是 12%,
01:44
and we emitted 35 million tons of particulate matter
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我們排放了 3500 萬噸 微粒狀物質,
01:47
and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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以及 2000 萬噸的二氧化硫。
01:51
What about the world as a whole?
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整個世界的狀況又如何?
01:53
Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars,
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去年世上有 12 場戰事未歇,
01:56
60 autocracies,
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60 個獨裁政體,
01:59
10 percent of the world population in extreme poverty
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世界有 10% 的赤貧人口,
02:02
and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.
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和超過一萬件核武。
02:05
But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars,
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但 30 年前,有 23 場戰爭,
02:08
85 autocracies,
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85 個獨裁政體,
02:10
37 percent of the world population in extreme poverty
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37% 的赤貧人口,
02:13
and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.
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和超過六萬件核武。
02:17
True, last year was a terrible year for terrorism in Western Europe,
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的確,就西歐的恐怖主義來說, 去年是很糟的一年,
02:21
with 238 deaths,
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造成 238 人死亡,
02:24
but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.
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但 1988 年更糟,有 440 人死亡。
02:28
What's going on?
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怎麼回事?
02:30
Was 1988 a particularly bad year?
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1988 年是特別不好的一年嗎?
02:33
Or are these improvements a sign that the world, for all its struggles,
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或者,這些改善其實是個徵兆, 顯示在所有的困難議題上,
02:37
gets better over time?
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世界隨時間變得更好?
02:39
Might we even invoke the admittedly old-fashioned notion of progress?
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是不是甚至能承認,我們符合了 「進步」這個老式觀念呢?
02:45
To do so is to court a certain amount of derision,
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這麼做,其實會受到相當的嘲笑,
02:49
because I have found that intellectuals hate progress.
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因為我發現,知識分子討厭進步。
02:53
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:54
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
02:57
And intellectuals who call themselves progressive really hate progress.
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自稱進步分子的知識分子 其實很討厭進步。
03:01
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:02
Now, it's not that they hate the fruits of progress, mind you.
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請注意,這並不是說 他們討厭進步的果實。
03:05
Most academics and pundits
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大部分的學者和權威者在手術時
03:08
would rather have their surgery with anesthesia than without it.
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偏好用麻醉的還是多於不用麻醉的。
03:13
It's the idea of progress that rankles the chattering class.
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是「進步」這個想法 讓這個喋喋不休的階層感到痛苦。
03:17
If you believe that humans can improve their lot, I have been told,
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有人告訴我,如果相信 人類可以改善命運,
03:21
that means that you have a blind faith
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那就表示你的信念盲目,
03:23
and a quasi-religious belief in the outmoded superstition
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你對過時的迷信有宗教般的信仰,
03:28
and the false promise of the myth of the onward march
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而且你對未來的進展神話
03:31
of inexorable progress.
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懷抱著虛假的希望。
03:34
You are a cheerleader for vulgar American can-doism,
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你盲從地喝采 美國通俗的「做得到主義」、
03:39
with the rah-rah spirit of boardroom ideology,
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會議室的意識形態、
03:42
Silicon Valley and the Chamber of Commerce.
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矽谷和商會。 (註:對資本主義信仰者的侮辱說法)
03:45
You are a practitioner of Whig history,
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你是輝格黨歷史的實踐者、 (註:英國歷史上的一個政黨)
03:48
a naive optimist, a Pollyanna and, of course, a Pangloss,
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天真的樂觀者、樂天派, 當然,也是班格羅斯博士,
03:52
alluding to the Voltaire character who declared,
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指的是伏爾泰筆下的角色,他宣稱:
03:55
"All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds."
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「在最好的世界中,一切的發生 都是為了最好的結果。」
03:58
Well, Professor Pangloss, as it happens, was a pessimist.
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好巧不巧,班格羅斯博士 是位悲觀主義者。
04:01
A true optimist believes there can be much better worlds
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真正的樂觀主義者相信
有比現今世界好得多的世界存在。
04:04
than the one we have today.
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04:06
But all of this is irrelevant,
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但這些都不相干,
04:07
because the question of whether progress has taken place
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因為,是否有進步
04:10
is not a matter of faith
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並不是信念的問題,
04:12
or having an optimistic temperament or seeing the glass as half full.
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也不是有樂觀性情 或是看到半滿杯子的問題。
04:16
It's a testable hypothesis.
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它是個可試驗的假設。
04:18
For all their differences,
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雖然人的差異很大,
04:20
people largely agree on what goes into human well-being:
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大多數人都同意人類的幸福包括
04:24
life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,
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生命、健康、食物、繁榮、和平、
自由、安全、知識、休閒、快樂。
04:30
leisure, happiness.
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04:32
All of these things can be measured.
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上述這些都是可測量的。
04:34
If they have improved over time, that, I submit, is progress.
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如果它們都隨著時間改善了, 我認為那就是進步。
04:38
Let's go to the data,
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讓我們看資料,
04:40
beginning with the most precious thing of all, life.
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從當中最珍貴的一項開始:生命。
04:43
For most of human history, life expectancy at birth was around 30.
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人類史上大部分時期 出生時預期的壽命是 30 歲。
04:48
Today, worldwide, it is more than 70,
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今天全世界超過 70 歲,
04:51
and in the developed parts of the world,
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在世界上已開發的區域,
04:53
more than 80.
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還會超過 80 歲。
04:55
250 years ago, in the richest countries of the world,
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250 年前,在世界上最有錢的國家中,
04:58
a third of the children did not live to see their fifth birthday,
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三分之一的孩子 沒辦法活到 5 歲生日,
05:02
before the risk was brought down a hundredfold.
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後來這個風險數字下降了百倍之多。
05:05
Today, that fate befalls less than six percent of children
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現今世界最貧窮的國家
05:08
in the poorest countries of the world.
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有這種命運的孩子不到 6%。
05:11
Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
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饑荒是啟示錄中的四騎士之一。
05:15
It could bring devastation to any part of the world.
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它能蹂躪世界上的任何一個區域。
05:18
Today, famine has been banished
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現今,饑荒已經被流放到
05:20
to the most remote and war-ravaged regions.
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最偏遠、被戰爭破壞的地區。
05:23
200 years ago, 90 percent of the world's population
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200 年前,世界人口有 90%
05:26
subsisted in extreme poverty.
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過著極度貧窮的生活。
05:29
Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do.
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現今,這樣的人剩下不到 10%。
05:32
For most of human history,
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在人類歷史上大部分時期,
05:34
the powerful states and empires
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強大的國家和帝王
05:36
were pretty much always at war with each other,
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總是在彼此交戰,
05:38
and peace was a mere interlude between wars.
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和平僅是戰爭間的插曲。
05:42
Today, they are never at war with each other.
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現今,他們都不再打仗了。
05:44
The last great power war
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最後一次大型的權力戰爭
05:46
pitted the United States against China 65 years ago.
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是 65 年前美國與中國的戰爭。
05:50
More recently, wars of all kinds have become fewer and less deadly.
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更近期,各種戰爭都變少了, 也不那麼致命。
05:54
The annual rate of war has fallen from about 22 per hundred thousand per year
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年戰爭率已經從 50 年代初期的十萬分之 22
05:59
in the early '50s to 1.2 today.
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下降到今天的十萬分之 1.2。
06:03
Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks
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民主碰到了很明顯的挫敗,
06:05
in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey
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在委內瑞拉、俄國和土耳其,
06:09
and is threatened by the rise of authoritarian populism
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且受到東歐及美國
專制民粹主義興起的威脅。
06:12
in Eastern Europe and the United States.
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06:15
Yet the world has never been more democratic
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然而以前的世界未曾像
06:17
than it has been in the past decade,
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過去十年間這麼民主過,
06:19
with two-thirds of the world's people living in democracies.
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三分之二的世人活在民主中。
06:24
Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy and the code of vendetta
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只要無政府狀態和仇殺法 被法治所取代,
06:28
are replaced by the rule of law.
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謀殺率就會驟降。
06:30
It happened when feudal Europe was brought under the control of centralized kingdoms,
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在封建的歐洲被 中央集權王國控制時發生過,
06:35
so that today a Western European
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所以,現今在西歐
06:37
has 1/35th the chance of being murdered
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被謀殺的機率,只有中世紀祖先
06:39
compared to his medieval ancestors.
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被謀殺之機率的三十五分之一。
06:42
It happened again in colonial New England,
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同樣的情形在新英格蘭殖民時期、
06:44
in the American Wild West when the sheriffs moved to town,
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警長進駐小鎮的美國大西部,
06:48
and in Mexico.
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和墨西哥,也都發生過。
06:50
Indeed, we've become safer in just about every way.
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的確,幾乎在每個層面上 我們都比以前更安全。
06:54
Over the last century, we've become 96 percent less likely
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在過去一百年,
我們因車禍死亡的機率減少了 96%,
06:58
to be killed in a car crash,
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07:00
88 percent less likely to be mowed down on the sidewalk,
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在人行道上慘死的機率減少了 88%,
07:04
99 percent less likely to die in a plane crash,
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因為墜機而死的機率減少了 99%,
07:08
95 percent less likely to be killed on the job,
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工作時送命的機率減少了 95%,
07:11
89 percent less likely to be killed by an act of God,
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因天災而死的機率減少了 89%,
07:15
such as a drought, flood, wildfire, storm, volcano,
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天災包括旱災、洪水、 野火、暴風、火山、
07:19
landslide, earthquake or meteor strike,
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土石流、地震,或隕石墜落,
07:22
presumably not because God has become less angry with us
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這應該不是因為 上帝對我們不那麼生氣了,
07:25
but because of improvements in the resilience of our infrastructure.
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而是因為改善了基礎建設的韌性。
07:30
And what about the quintessential act of God,
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那麼,典型的上帝作為呢?
07:33
the projectile hurled by Zeus himself?
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宙斯自己猛力投射的攻擊呢?
07:36
Yes, we are 97 percent less likely to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
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是的,我們被閃電打中而死的 機率也一樣減少了 97%。
07:43
Before the 17th century,
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在 17 世紀之前,
07:45
no more than 15 percent of Europeans could read or write.
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能讀能寫的歐洲人不到 15%。
07:48
Europe and the United States achieved universal literacy
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歐洲和美國在 20 世紀中期
07:51
by the middle of the 20th century,
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達成了全體識字的目標,
07:53
and the rest of the world is catching up.
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世界其他國家也陸續追了上來。
07:56
Today, more than 90 percent of the world's population
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現今,世界上 25 歲以下的人口,
07:59
under the age of 25 can read and write.
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超過 90% 都能讀和寫。
08:03
In the 19th century, Westerners worked more than 60 hours per week.
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在 19 世紀,西方人每週 要工作超過 60 小時,
08:07
Today, they work fewer than 40.
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現今則不到 40 小時。
08:10
Thanks to the universal penetration of running water and electricity
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多虧了在已開發世界中
08:14
in the developed world
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普及的自來水和電力,
08:16
and the widespread adoption of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,
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以及被廣泛使用的洗衣機、吸塵器、
08:20
refrigerators, dishwashers, stoves and microwaves,
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電冰箱、洗碗機、爐子,和微波爐,
08:24
the amount of our lives that we forfeit to housework
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我們人生中耗費在家事上的時間,
08:27
has fallen from 60 hours a week
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從每週 60 小時,
08:29
to fewer than 15 hours a week.
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落至不到每週 15 小時。
08:32
Do all of these gains in health, wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure
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在健康、財富、安全、 知識,和休閒上的收穫,
08:37
make us any happier?
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有讓我們更快樂嗎?
08:39
The answer is yes.
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答案是,有。
08:40
In 86 percent of the world's countries,
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世界上有 86% 的國家
08:42
happiness has increased in recent decades.
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在近數十年間,快樂程度都有增加。
08:45
Well, I hope to have convinced you
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我希望我已經說服了各位,
08:47
that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism,
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進步並不是信念或樂觀主義的問題,
08:51
but is a fact of human history,
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而是人類歷史上的一件事實,
08:53
indeed the greatest fact in human history.
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可說是人類歷史上最偉大的事實。
08:56
And how has this fact been covered in the news?
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而新聞是怎麼報導這件事實的?
08:59
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:03
A tabulation of positive and negative emotion words in news stories
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把新聞報導中用到的正面 和負面情緒用字製成表格,
09:07
has shown that during the decades in which humanity has gotten healthier,
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就能看出,在人類變得 更健康、更有錢、更聰明、
09:11
wealthier, wiser, safer and happier,
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更安全,且更快樂的這數十年間,
09:13
the "New York Times" has become increasingly morose
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《紐約時報》變得越來越陰鬱,
09:18
and the world's broadcasts too have gotten steadily glummer.
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世界的廣播也都很穩定地 變得越來越悶悶不樂。
09:22
Why don't people appreciate progress?
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為什麼大家不賞識進步?
09:25
Part of the answer comes from our cognitive psychology.
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部分答案來自我們的認知心理學。
09:28
We estimate risk using a mental shortcut called the "availability heuristic."
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我們用一種叫做「易得性法則」的 心理捷徑來估計風險。
09:33
The easier it is to recall something from memory,
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當我們越容易喚起 記憶中的一樣事物時,
09:36
the more probable we judge it to be.
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我們就越可能判斷它容易發生。
09:39
The other part of the answer comes from the nature of journalism,
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另一部分答案來自新聞業的天性,
09:42
captured in this satirical headline from "The Onion,"
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在這來自《洋蔥報》的 諷刺頭條中就可以看出來:
09:46
"CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide
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「CNN 開晨間會議來決定
09:48
What Viewers Should Panic About For Rest of Day."
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今天讀者應該要對什麼感到慌張。」
09:50
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:52
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
09:57
News is about stuff that happens, not stuff that doesn't happen.
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新聞的重點是已發生的事情, 而非沒發生的事情。
10:01
You never see a journalist who says,
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你永遠不會看到一個新聞記者說:
10:03
"I'm reporting live from a country that has been at peace for 40 years,"
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「我正在一個已經和平了 40 年的國家做實況報導。」
10:07
or a city that has not been attacked by terrorists.
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也不會去報導沒有 被恐怖分子攻擊的城市。
10:10
Also, bad things can happen quickly,
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此外,壞事的發生可能很快速,
10:13
but good things aren't built in a day.
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但好事不是一天就能建造起來的。
10:15
The papers could have run the headline,
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如果報紙用了這頭條:
10:17
"137,000 people escaped from extreme poverty yesterday"
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「昨天 137,000 人脫離赤貧」,
10:22
every day for the last 25 years.
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不可能在接下來 25 年 天天都用這頭條。
10:24
That's one and a quarter billion people leaving poverty behind,
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那相當於 12.5 億人脫離貧窮,
10:29
but you never read about it.
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但你從來沒有讀過這種報導。
10:31
Also, the news capitalizes on our morbid interest
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此外,新聞要利用我們想看 事情能怎麼出錯的病態心理,
10:34
in what can go wrong,
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10:35
captured in the programming policy, "If it bleeds, it leads."
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「見到血,才能見頭條」 這條節目製作政策很一針見血。
10:40
Well, if you combine our cognitive biases with the nature of news,
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如果把我們的認知偏見 和新聞的天性結合起來,
10:43
you can see why the world has been coming to an end
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你就能了解為什麼 長年以來都一直在說
10:46
for a very long time indeed.
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好像世界末日即將來臨一樣了。
10:50
Let me address some questions about progress
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無疑地,許多人應該都有一些
10:52
that no doubt have occurred to many of you.
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關於進步的問題想問, 就讓我來談談。
10:56
First, isn't it good to be pessimistic
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首先,用悲觀的方式
10:59
to safeguard against complacency,
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來避免自滿,來揭發不當行為,
11:01
to rake the muck, to speak truth to power?
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來向當權著說出真相,不好嗎?
11:04
Well, not exactly.
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嗯,不見得。
11:06
It's good to be accurate.
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精確是好事。
11:08
Of course we should be aware of suffering and danger
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當然,我們應該要在 苦難和危險發生時
11:10
wherever they occur,
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意識到它們的存在,
11:12
but we should also be aware of how they can be reduced,
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但我們也應該要意識到 如何能減低它們,
11:15
because there are dangers to indiscriminate pessimism.
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因為不分皂白的悲觀主義是危險的。
11:18
One of them is fatalism.
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其中一種危險就是宿命論。
11:20
If all our efforts at improving the world
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若我們投入改善世界的所有努力
11:22
have been in vain,
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都是白費的,
11:23
why throw good money after bad?
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為何要再砸錢填補無底洞?
11:25
The poor will always be with you.
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貧窮永遠會與你同在。
11:28
And since the world will end soon --
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既然世界末日很快就會來臨──
11:30
if climate change doesn't kill us all,
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若我們沒有都死於氣候變遷,
11:32
then runaway artificial intelligence will --
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我們還是會死於失控的人工智能──
11:34
a natural response is to enjoy life while we can,
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自然的反應就是, 趁還可以時盡量享受人生,
11:38
eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die.
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去吃喝玩樂,因為我們活不過明天。
11:42
The other danger of thoughtless pessimism is radicalism.
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輕率的悲觀主義會帶來的 另一種危險就是激進主義。
11:46
If our institutions are all failing and beyond hope for reform,
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如果我們的制度全都沒有用, 且也沒有改革的希望,
11:50
a natural response is to seek to smash the machine,
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自然的反應就是要 想辦法砸爛這台機器,
11:53
drain the swamp,
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把不好的給根除,
11:55
burn the empire to the ground,
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把整個帝國燒毀,
11:56
on the hope that whatever rises out of the ashes
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希望不論從灰燼中重生的是什麼,
12:00
is bound to be better than what we have now.
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都能夠比我們的現況更好。
12:03
Well, if there is such a thing as progress,
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嗯,如果有「進步」這回事,
12:06
what causes it?
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是什麼造成進步的?
12:07
Progress is not some mystical force or dialectic lifting us ever higher.
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進步不是能把我們抬得更高的 神秘力量或辯證法;
12:12
It's not a mysterious arc of history bending toward justice.
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進步不是歷史的神秘弧形, 朝向正義的方向彎曲;
12:16
It's the result of human efforts governed by an idea,
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而是由想法支配人類努力的結果,
12:19
an idea that we associate with the 18th century Enlightenment,
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這想法和 18 世紀啟蒙運動有關,
12:23
namely that if we apply reason and science
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也就是,如果我們運用
增進人類福祉的理性和科學,
12:28
that enhance human well-being,
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12:30
we can gradually succeed.
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我們可以逐漸成功。
12:32
Is progress inevitable? Of course not.
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進步是必然的嗎?當然不是。
12:36
Progress does not mean that everything becomes better
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進步並不表示隨時隨地
12:39
for everyone everywhere all the time.
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任何人的一切都會變更好。
12:42
That would be a miracle, and progress is not a miracle
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那叫做奇蹟,而進步並不是奇蹟,
12:45
but problem-solving.
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而是解決問題。
12:47
Problems are inevitable
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問題是無可避免的,
12:49
and solutions create new problems which have to be solved in their turn.
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而解決方案會創造出新的問題來, 接著又要解決這些問題。
12:53
The unsolved problems facing the world today are gargantuan,
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現今世界面對巨大的問題,
12:57
including the risks of climate change
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包括氣候變遷的風險,
13:00
and nuclear war,
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以及核戰,
13:01
but we must see them as problems to be solved,
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但我們必須視它們為 有待解決的問題,
13:04
not apocalypses in waiting,
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而不是等著即將到來的世界末日,
13:06
and aggressively pursue solutions
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並要很進取地去尋找解決方案,
13:09
like Deep Decarbonization for climate change
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就像針對氣候變遷要深度減碳;
13:12
and Global Zero for nuclear war.
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針對核戰要全球零核。
13:15
Finally, does the Enlightenment go against human nature?
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最後,啟蒙運動是否有違人類天性?
13:19
This is an acute question for me,
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對我來說,這是個尖銳的問題,
13:22
because I'm a prominent advocate of the existence of human nature,
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因為我是人性存在的主要倡導者,
13:25
with all its shortcomings and perversities.
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即使這天性有各種缺陷和任性。
13:28
In my book "The Blank Slate,"
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在我的書《空白的石板》中,
13:30
I argued that the human prospect is more tragic than utopian
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我主張人類的前景 比烏托邦要更悲劇些,
13:34
and that we are not stardust, we are not golden
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且我們並非星塵,我們不是黃金的,
13:37
and there's no way we are getting back to the garden.
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所以我們不可能回到花園。 (註:一首歌的歌詞)
13:39
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
13:42
But my worldview has lightened up
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但在《空白的石板》出版後的
13:44
in the 15 years since "The Blank Slate" was published.
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15 年間,我的世界觀亮了起來。
13:47
My acquaintance with the statistics of human progress,
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我最先熟悉的 人類進步相關統計數字,
13:50
starting with violence
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是暴力相關的數字,
13:51
but now encompassing every other aspect of our well-being,
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但現在包含了我們 幸福的每一個面向,
13:55
has fortified my belief
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這加強了我的信念,
13:57
that in understanding our tribulations and woes,
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相信在了解我們的動亂與不幸上,
14:00
human nature is the problem,
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問題其實是人類天性,
14:02
but human nature, channeled by Enlightenment norms and institutions,
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但透過啟蒙標準與制度做為管道,
人類天性也同樣是解決方案。
14:06
is also the solution.
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14:09
Admittedly, it's not easy to replicate my own data-driven epiphany
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顯然,很難把我自己 透過資料而導出的醒悟,
14:14
with humanity at large.
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複製到人類總體上。
14:16
Some intellectuals have responded
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所以,知識分子對我的書
14:18
with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now,"
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《現在的啟蒙》反應是非常憤怒,
14:21
saying first how dare he claim that intellectuals hate progress,
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首先,說他怎麼有膽子 聲稱知識分子討厭進步,
14:25
and second, how dare he claim that there has been progress.
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再來,他怎麼有膽子聲稱有進步。
14:28
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
14:32
With others, the idea of progress just leaves them cold.
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對於其他人,進步的想法 只讓他們心寒。
14:35
Saving the lives of billions,
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拯救數十億人的性命,
14:37
eradicating disease, feeding the hungry,
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消滅疾病,提供食物給飢餓的人,
14:40
teaching kids to read?
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教孩子識字?
14:42
Boring.
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無聊。
14:44
At the same time, the most common response I have received from readers is gratitude,
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同時,我從讀者得到的回應中, 最常見的是感激,
14:49
gratitude for changing their view of the world
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感激我改變了他們的世界觀,
14:51
from a numb and helpless fatalism
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從一種麻木和無助的宿命論,
14:54
to something more constructive,
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變得更有建設性,
14:55
even heroic.
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甚至更英勇。
14:57
I believe that the ideals of the Enlightenment
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我相信,啟蒙的理想
14:59
can be cast a stirring narrative,
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能被用很激動人心的方式描述,
15:01
and I hope that people with greater artistic flare
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我希望比我更有藝術氣息
15:04
and rhetorical power than I
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和修辭能力的人,
15:06
can tell it better and spread it further.
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能說得更好,傳播得更遠更廣。
15:09
It goes something like this.
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類似這樣。
15:12
We are born into a pitiless universe,
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我們出生在無情的世界,
15:14
facing steep odds against life-enabling order
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面臨著對生命有利的秩序的嚴重衝擊,
15:18
and in constant jeopardy of falling apart.
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並且一直處於崩潰的危險之中。
15:21
We were shaped by a process that is ruthlessly competitive.
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形塑我們的過程, 是個無情競爭的過程。
15:25
We are made from crooked timber,
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我們是用歪曲的木材製成的,
15:27
vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness
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容易產生幻想,以自我為中心,
15:30
and at times astounding stupidity.
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有時甚至還驚人的愚蠢。
15:33
Yet human nature has also been blessed with resources
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然而,人類天性也因資源而得福,
15:36
that open a space for a kind of redemption.
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這些資源打開了某種救贖用的空間。
15:39
We are endowed with the power to combine ideas recursively,
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我們被賦予不斷遞回式地 將想法結合的力量,
15:42
to have thoughts about our thoughts.
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對我們的想法有所想法的力量。
15:45
We have an instinct for language,
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我們對於語言具有直覺,
15:47
allowing us to share the fruits of our ingenuity and experience.
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讓我們能分享我們 心靈手巧和經驗的果實。
15:51
We are deepened with the capacity for sympathy,
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我們還有更深一層的能力,
會同情、憐惜、想像、同理、憐憫。
15:54
for pity, imagination, compassion, commiseration.
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15:59
These endowments have found ways to magnify their own power.
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這些才能已經找到 放大本身力量的方式。
16:03
The scope of language has been augmented
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語言的範圍已經被擴增,
16:05
by the written, printed and electronic word.
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靠的是書寫、列印,和電子文字。
16:09
Our circle of sympathy has been expanded
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2016
我們的同情圈已經被擴展,
16:11
by history, journalism and the narrative arts.
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靠的是歷史、新聞,和敘事性藝術。
16:15
And our puny rational faculties have been multiplied
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我們微不足道的理性機能已經倍增,
16:18
by the norms and institutions of reason,
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靠的是理性的標準和制度、
16:20
intellectual curiosity, open debate,
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需要智力的好奇心、公開辯論、
16:24
skepticism of authority and dogma
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對於權威及污名的懷疑態度,
16:26
and the burden of proof to verify ideas
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和通過面對現實 來驗證觀點的舉證責任。
16:29
by confronting them against reality.
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16:32
As the spiral of recursive improvement
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隨著遞迴式改善的螺旋勢頭 越來越強勁,
16:34
gathers momentum,
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16:36
we eke out victories against the forces that grind us down,
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在對抗壓榨我們的力量時, 我們的勝算增加了,
16:40
not least the darker parts of our own nature.
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特別是我們自身天性中 較黑暗的部分。
16:43
We penetrate the mysteries of the cosmos, including life and mind.
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我們看透了宇宙的神秘, 包括生命和心智。
16:48
We live longer, suffer less, learn more,
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我們活得更久, 受得苦難更少,學習得更多,
16:52
get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures
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變得更聰明,享受更多小小的樂趣,
16:54
and rich experiences.
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以及豐富的經驗。
16:57
Fewer of us are killed, assaulted, enslaved, exploited
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被他人殺害、攻擊、奴役、利用,
17:01
or oppressed by the others.
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或迫害的人數變少了。
17:03
From a few oases, the territories with peace and prosperity are growing
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和平繁榮的領域在變大, 從只有幾個綠洲,
17:08
and could someday encompass the globe.
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到有一天會貫穿全球。
17:11
Much suffering remains
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許多的苦難和極大的危險仍然存在,
17:13
and tremendous peril,
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17:15
but ideas on how to reduce them have been voiced,
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已經有人提出如何減少它們的想法,
17:18
and an infinite number of others are yet to be conceived.
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還有無數的想法還沒被構想出來。
17:22
We will never have a perfect world,
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我們永遠不會有一個完美的世界,
17:24
and it would be dangerous to seek one.
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去尋找這樣的世界是很危險的。
17:26
But there's no limit to the betterments we can attain
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但如果我們繼續運用知識 來增進人類的繁榮,
17:29
if we continue to apply knowledge to enhance human flourishing.
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那麼我們能獲得的改善無限。
17:34
This heroic story is not just another myth.
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這英勇的故事並不是另一個神話。
17:37
Myths are fictions, but this one is true,
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神話是虛構的,這個故事是真實的,
17:41
true to the best of our knowledge, which is the only truth we can have.
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就我們所知是真實的,而我們的所知 就是我們唯一能擁有的真相。
17:44
As we learn more,
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隨著我們越學越多,
17:46
we can show which parts of the story continue to be true and which ones false,
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我們能夠顯示出故事中
哪些部分仍然真實,哪些虛假,
17:50
as any of them might be and any could become.
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任何部分都有可能是真是假, 也可能變真或成空。
17:54
And this story belongs not to any tribe
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這個故事不屬於任何種族,
17:56
but to all of humanity,
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而是屬於全人類的,
17:58
to any sentient creature with the power of reason
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屬於任何具有理性力量、感知能力,
18:02
and the urge to persist in its being,
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以及有強烈慾望想要活下來的生物,
18:05
for it requires only the convictions
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因為只需要相信
18:07
that life is better than death,
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生命比死亡更好,
18:09
health is better than sickness,
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健康比生病更好,
18:11
abundance is better than want,
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豐足比缺乏更好,
18:13
freedom is better than coercion,
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自由比脅迫更好,
18:16
happiness is better than suffering
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幸福比受苦更好,
18:18
and knowledge is better than ignorance and superstition.
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知識比無知和迷信更好。
18:22
Thank you.
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謝謝。
18:23
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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