Wingham Rowan: A new kind of job market

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Dejan Dojčinović Lektor: Ivana Korom

This is about a hidden corner of the labor market.

Ovde se radi o skrivenom delu tržišta rada.

It's the world of people who need to work ultra-flexibly,

To je čitav jedan svet ljudi kojima je potrebno veoma fleksibilno radno vreme,

if they're to work at all.

kako bi uopšte mogli da rade.

So think, for instance,

Zamislite, na primer,

of someone who has a recurring but unpredictable medical condition,

nekoga ko ima ponavljajuće i nepredvidivo medicinsko stanje

or somebody who's caring for a dependent adult,

ili nekoga ko se stara o odraslom licu kome je neophodna nega

or a parent with complex child care needs.

ili roditelja sa složenim potrebama u vezi sa brigom o deci.

Their availability for work can be such that it's,

Njihova dostupnost za posao je otprilike:

"A few hours today.

"Nekoliko sati danas.

Maybe I can work tomorrow, but I don't know if and when yet."

Možda i sutra, ali još uvek ne znam da li uopšte, niti znam kada."

And it's extraordinarily difficult for these people

Ovim ljudima je izuzetno teško

to find the work that they so often need very badly.

da pronađu posao koji im često veoma treba.

Which is a tragedy because there are employers

To je tragedija, zato što postoje poslodavci

who can use pools of very flexible local people

koji mogu da upotrebe više fleksibilnih ljudi iz blizine,

booked completely ad hoc around when that person wants to work.

angažovanih po potrebi u vreme kada ta osoba želi da radi.

Imagine that you run a cafe.

Zamislite da vodite kafe.

It's mid-morning, the place is filling up.

Prepodne je, mesto se popunjava.

You're going to have a busy lunchtime rush.

Izgleda kao da će biti gužva za ručak.

If you could get two extra workers for 90 minutes

Ako biste mogli da angažujete dvoje dodatnih radnika na 90 minuta

to start in an hour's time,

koji bi počeli da rade u sledećih sat vremena,

you'd do it, but they'd have to be reliable, inducted in how your cafe works.

mogli biste sve da uslužite, ali oni moraju biti pouzadni i sa znanjem kako vaš kafe radi.

They'd have to be available at very competitive rates.

Morali bi biti dostupni po konkurentnim cenama.

They'd have to be bookable in about the next minute.

Morali bi biti angažovani za otprilike minut.

In reality, no recruitment agency wants to handle that sort of business,

U realnosti, nijedna agencija za zapošljavanje ne želi da se bavi ovakvim poslom,

so you are going to muddle by, understaffed.

tako da vam ostaje da se snalazite sa manjkom osoblja.

And it's not just caterers, it's hoteliers, it's retailers,

I ne radi se samo o konobarima, radi se o hotelijerima, prodavcima,

it's anyone who provides services to the public or businesses.

bilo kome ko pruža usluge javnosti ili firmama.

There's all sorts of organizations that can use these pools of very flexible people,

Postoje razne organizacije kojima mogu biti od koristi grupe lokalnih fleksibilnih ljudi,

possibly already once they've been inducted.

po mogućnosti sa prethodnim znanjem o poslu.

At this level of the labor market,

Na ovom nivou tržišta rada,

what you need is a marketplace for spare hours.

ono što je potreno je tržište za višak sati.

They do exist. Here's how they work.

Ono već postoji i evo kako to sve radi.

So in this example, a distribution company has said,

Dakle, u ovom primeru, firma za distribuciju je rekla:

we've got a rush order that we've got to get out of the warehouse tomorrow morning.

imamo hitnu narudžbinu koju moramo da otpremimo iz skladišta sutra ujutro.

Show us everyone who's available.

Pokaži nam sve koji su dostupni.

It's found 31 workers.

Pronađen je 31 radnik.

Everybody on this screen is genuinely available at those specific hours tomorrow.

Svako na ovom monitoru je zaista dostupan u tačno traženo vreme sutra.

They're all contactable in time for this booking.

Sa svima se može sklopiti ugovor na vreme.

They've all defined the terms on which they will accept bookings.

Svako od njih je definisao uslove pod kojima će prihvatiti ugovor.

And this booking is within all the parameters for each individual.

I ovaj ugovor je u okviru parametara za svaku osobu pojedinačno.

And they would all be legally compliant by doing this booking.

I svi su pravno u obavezi da poštuju ovaj ugovor.

Of course, they're all trained to work in warehouses.

Naravno, svi su oni obučeni za rad u skladištu.

You can select as many of them as you want.

Možete odabrati koliko god ih želite.

They're from multiple agencies.

Oni su iz raznih agencija.

It's calculated the charge rate for each person for this specific booking.

Izračunata je naknada za svaku osobu za ovaj konkretan ugovor.

And it's monitoring their reliability.

I prati se njihova pouzdanost.

The people on the top row are the provenly reliable ones.

Ljdi iz gornjeg reda su dokazano pouzdani.

They're likely to be more expensive.

Verovatno će oni biti skuplji.

In an alternative view of this pool of local, very flexible people,

Kao alternativa, pogledajte ovu grupu lokalnih, fleksibilnih ljudi,

here's a market research company,

evo je agencija za istraživanje tržišta

and it's inducted maybe 25 local people in how to do street interviewing.

i ona je obučila možda 25 lokalnih ljudi za poslove uličnog ispitivanja.

And they've got a new campaign. They want to run it next week.

Oni imaju novu kampanju koju žele da pokrenu sledeće nedelje.

And they're looking at how many of the people they've inducted

Onda oni traže koliko od tih obučenih ljudi

are available each hour next week.

je dostupno za svaki sat sledeće nedelje.

And they'll then decide when to do their street interviews.

Tada će odlučiti kada da sprovedu ulično istraživanje.

But is there more that could be done

Ali ima li još nečega što može biti urađeno

for this corner of the labor market?

za ovaj deo tržišta rada?

Because right now there are so many people

Jer upravo sada, postoji toliko puno ljudi

who need whatever economic opportunity they can get.

kojima je potrebna bilo kakva ekonomska prilika.

Let's make it personal.

Učinimo ovo ličnim.

Imagine that a young woman -- base of the economic pyramid,

Zaislite mladu ženu - na dnu ekonomske piramide,

very little prospect of getting a job --

sa jako malim mogućnostima za dobijanje posla -

what economic activity could she theoretically engage in?

u kakvu bi se ekonomsku aktivnost ona uopšte mogla uključiti?

Well, she might be willing to work odd hours

Pa, mogla bi da radi u nezgodnim satima

in a call center, in a reception area, in a mail room.

u kol centru, na recepciji, na pošti.

She may be interested in providing local services to her community:

Može biti zainteresovana da pruža lokalne usluge u zajednici:

babysitting, local deliveries, pet care.

bebisiting, lokalne dostave, briga o kućnim ljubimcima.

She may have possessions that she would like to trade

Možda ima u posedu nešto sa čim bi mogla da trguje

at times she doesn't need them.

u vreme u koje joj to nije potrebno.

So she might have a sofa bed in her front room that she would like to let out.

Možda ima kauč u pomoćnoj sobi koji može da iznajmi,

She might have a bike, a video games console she only uses occasionally.

možda ima bicikl, konzolu za video igre koju koristi povremeno,

And you're probably thinking -- because you're all very web-aware --

i sada verovatno razmišljate - zato što ste svi veoma svesni postojanja interneta -

yes, and we're in the era of collaborative consumption,

da, svi smo mi u eri zajedničke potrošnje,

so she can go online and do all this.

pa ona može da ode onlajn i uradi sve ovo.

She can go to Airbnb to list her sofa bed,

Može otići na Airbnb da ponudi svoj kauč,

she can go to TaskRabbit.com and say, "I want to do local deliveries," and so on.

može otići na TaskRabbit.com i reći: "Želim da se bavim lokalnim dostavama" i tako dalje.

These are good sites, but I believe we can go a step further.

Ovo su dobri sajtovi, ali ja verujem da možemo ići i korak dalje.

And the key to that is a philosophy that we call modern markets for all.

Ključ za ovo je filozofija koju nazivamo Moderno tržište za svakoga.

Markets have changed beyond recognition in the last 20 years,

Tržišta su se promenila preko granice prepoznavanja u poslednjih 20 godina,

but only for organizations at the top of the economy.

ali samo za organizacije koje su na vrhu ekonomije.

If you're a Wall Street trader, you now take it for granted

Ako ste broker na Vol stritu, vama je normalno

that you sell your financial assets in a system of markets

da prodajete finansijska dobra u sistemu tržišta

that identifies the most profitable opportunities for you in real time,

koji u realnom vremenu identifikuje najprofitabilnije mogućnosti

executes on that in microseconds within the boundaries you've set.

i vršite prodaju u roku od milisekunde u okvirima koje ste zadali.

It analyzes supply and demand and pricing

Sistem analizira ponude i potražnje i cene

and tells you where your next wave of opportunities are coming from.

i govori vam iz kog pravca vam dolazi sledeći talas mogućnosti.

It manages counterparty risk in incredibly sophisticated ways.

Određuje rizik saradnika na neverovatno sofisticirane načine.

It's all extremely low overhead.

Ima ekstremno male troškove održavanja.

What have we gained at the bottom of the economy

Šta smo dobili na dnu ekonomije

in terms of markets in the last 20 years?

u tržišnim terminima tokom poslednjih 20 godina?

Basically classified adverts with a search facility.

U suštini, klasifikovane oglase sa uređajem za pretraživanje.

So why do we have this disparity

Dakle, zašto postoji ova nejednakost

between these incredibly sophisticated markets at the top of the economy

između neverovatno profinjenih tržišta na vrhu ekonomije

that are increasingly sucking more and more activity and resource

koja sve više usisavaju aktivnosti i resurse

out of the main economy into this rarefied level of trading,

iz glavne ekonomije u ovaj malecni nivo trgovine

and what the rest of us have?

i onoga što imamo mi ostali?

A modern market is more than a website;

Savremeno tržište je više od veb sajta;

it's a web of interoperable marketplaces,

to je mreža međuzavisnih "pijaca",

back office mechanisms, regulatory regimes,

mehanizama za podršku i regulatornih sistema,

settlement mechanisms, liquidity sources and so on.

mehanizama za poravnanje, izvora likvidnosti i tako dalje.

And when a Wall Street trader comes into work in the morning,

Kada broker na Vol stritu ujutru dođe na posao,

she does not write a listing for every financial derivative she wants to sell today

ne piše listing o svakom finansijskom proizvodu koji danas želi da proda

and then post that listing on multiple websites

i onda to postuje na više sajtova

and wait for potential buyers to get in touch

i čeka moguće kupce da je kontaktiraju

and start negotiating the terms on which she might trade.

započinjući pregovore o trgovini.

In the early days of this modern markets technology,

U ranim danima savremene tržišne tehnologije,

the financial institutions worked out

finansijske institucije su usavršile

how they could leverage their buying power, their back office processes,

kako mogu da osnaže sopstvenu kupovnu moć, sopstvene mehanizme podrške,

their relationships, their networks

sopstvene odnose i mreže

to shape these new markets that would create all this new activity.

da bi oblikovali nova tržišta koja će stvoriti novu aktivnost.

They asked governments for supporting regulatory regimes,

Tražili su od vlasti regulatorne sisteme podrške

and in a lot of cases they got it.

i u velikom broju slučajeva, dobili su ih.

But throughout the economy,

Ali, imajući na umu celokupnu ekonomiju,

there are facilities that could likewise leverage

postoje okolnosti koje na sličan način mogu osnažiti

a new generation of markets

nove generacije tržišta

for the benefit of all of us.

na opštu dobrobit.

And those facilities --

I te okolnosti -

I'm talking about things like the mechanisms that prove our identity,

govorim o stvarima kao što su mehanizmi koji dokazuju naš identitet,

the licensing authorities

organi za licenciranje

that know what each of us is allowed to do legally at any given time,

koji znaju šta je svako od nas pravno ovlašćen da radi u bilo koje dato vreme,

the processes by which we resolve disputes through official channels.

procesi kojima razrešavamo sporove kroz zvanične kanale.

These mechanisms, these facilities

Ovi mehanizmi, ove okolnosti

are not in the gift of Craigslist or Gumtree or Yahoo,

nisu samo blagodeti sa Craigslista ili Gumtree-ja ili Yahoo-a,

they're controlled by the state.

oni su kontrolisani od strane države.

And the policymakers who sit on top of them

I oni koji prave propise,

are, I suggest, simply not thinking about how those facilities could be used

kako mi se čini, nisu razmišljali o tome kako te nove okolnosti mogu biti upotrebljene

to underpin a whole new era of markets.

da podupru čitavu jednu novu eru tržišta.

Like everyone else, those policymakers are taking it for granted

Kao i svi ostali, ti ljudi koji prave propise uzimaju zdravo za gotovo

that modern markets are the preserve

da moderna tržišta služe da održe

of organizations powerful enough to create them for themselves.

organizacije dovoljno jakim da ih stvore za sebe.

Suppose we stopped taking that for granted.

Pretpostavimo da više ne uzimamo ovo zdravo za gotovo.

Suppose tomorrow morning the prime minister of Britain or the president of the U.S.,

Pretpostavimo da se sutra ujutru premijer Britanije ili predsednik Sjedinjenih Država

or the leader of any other developed nation,

ili vođa bilo koje druge razvijene nacije

woke up and said, "I'm never going to be able to create

probudi i kaže: "Nikada neću biti u stanju da stvorim

all the jobs I need in the current climate.

sve poslove koji su neophodni u trenutnoj situaciji.

I have got to focus on whatever economic opportunity I can get to my citizens.

Moram da se fokusiram na bilo koju ekonomsku mogućnost koju mogu da pružim građanima.

And for that they have to be able to access state-of-the-art markets.

I zbog toga oni moraju imati pristup najmodernijim tržištima.

How do I make that happen?"

Kako to da učinim?"

And I think I can see a few eyes rolling.

Čini mi se da vidim kako neki od vas prevrću očima.

Politicians in a big, complex, sophisticated I.T. project?

Političari i veliki kompleksni prefinjeni IT projekti?

Oh, that's going to be a disaster waiting to happen.

To je katastrofa koja će se neminovno desiti.

Not necessarily.

Ne obavezno.

There is a precedent for technology-enabled service

Postoje presedani za tehnološki-omogućene servise

that has been initiated by politicians in multiple countries

koje su političari inicirali u više zemalja

and has been hugely successful:

i koji su bili veoma uspešni:

national lotteries.

nacionalne lutrije.

Let's take Britain as an example.

Uzmimo Britaniju kao primer.

Our government didn't design the national lottery,

Naša vlada nije dizajnirala nacionalnu lutriju,

it didn't fund the national lottery, it doesn't operate the national lottery.

nije je finansirala niti upravljala njome.

It simply passed the National Lottery Act and this is what followed.

Jednostavno je donela Zakon o Nacionalnoj lutriji i evo šta je sledilo.

This act defines what a national lottery will look like.

Ovaj zakon definiše kako Nacionalna lutrija izgleda.

It specifies certain benefits

On precizira određene beneficije

that the state can uniquely bestow on the operators.

koje država jedinstveno može da dodeli operaterima.

And it puts some obligations on those operators.

I takođe daje neke obaveze tim operaterima.

In terms of spreading gambling activity to the masses,

U okvirima proširivanja kockanja na mase,

this was an unqualified success.

ovo je bio nezabeležen uspeh.

But let's suppose that our aim

Pretpostavimo da je naš cilj

is to bring new economic activity to the base of the pyramid.

da donesemo novu ekonomsku aktivnost na dno piramide.

Could we use the same model?

Možemo li koristiti isti model?

I believe we could.

Verujem da možemo.

So imagine that policymakers outlined a facility.

Zamislimo da su ljudi koji prave propise napravili konture mehanizma.

Let's call it national e-markets, NEMs for short.

Nazovimo ga nacionalno e-tržište, skraćeno NET.

Think of it as a regulated public utility.

Zamislite to kao regulisan javni servis.

So it's on a par with the water supply or the road network.

U tom smislu je slično vodovodu ili mreži puteva.

And it's a series of markets for low-level trade

U pitanju je niz tržišta za jednostavne poslove

that can be fulfilled by a person or a small company.

koje mogu izvršiti osobe ili male firme.

And government has certain benefits

Vlada ima određene beneficije

it can uniquely bestow on these markets.

koje može jedinstveno dodeliti tim tržištima.

It's about public spending going through these markets

Radi se o javnoj potrošnji koja ide kroz ova tržišta

to buy public services at the local level.

da bi se kupile javne usluge na lokalnom nivou.

It's about interfacing these markets

Radi se o povezivanju ovih tržišta

direct into the highest official channels in the land.

direktno sa najvišim zvaničnim kanalima u zemlji.

It's about enshrining government's role as a publicist for these markets.

Radi se o zatvaranju uloge vlasti kao izdavača za ova tržišta.

It's about deregulating some sectors

Radi se deregulaciji nekih sektora

so that local people can enter them.

kako bi lokalni ljudi mogli da uđu u njih.

So, taxi journeys might be one example.

Vožnja taksijem može biti jedan primer.

And there are certain obligations that should go with those benefits

Postoje određene obaveze koje idu uz beneficije

to be placed on the operators,

koje se moraju postaviti operaterima

and the key one is, of course,

i ključna je, naravno,

that the operators pay for everything,

da operateri plaćaju za sve,

including all the interfacing into the public sector.

uključujući sva povezivanja sa javnim sektorom.

So imagine that the operators make their return

Zamislite da operateri prave svoj profit

by building a percentage markup into each transaction.

preko procenta na svaku transakciju.

Imagine that there's a concession period

Zamislite da postoji period koncesije

defined of maybe 15 years

na recimo 15 godina

in which they can take all these benefits and run with them.

u okviru kog oni mogu koristiti dobijene beneficije i voditi posao sa njima.

And imagine that the consortia who bid to run it are told,

I zamislite da je konzorcijumima koji se nadmeću za posao rečeno,

whoever comes in at the lowest percentage markup on each transaction

ko god ponudi najmanji procenat na svaku transakciju

to fund the whole thing

i zauzvrat ponudi da finansira celu stvar

will get the deal.

dobija posao.

So government then exits the frame.

I tada vlada izlazi iz okvira.

This is now in the hands of the consortium.

Stvar je sada u rukama konzorcijuma.

Either they are going to unlock an awful lot of economic opportunity

Ili će otključati jako puno ekonomskih mogućnosti

and make a percentage on all of it

i uzeti procenat od svega

or it's all going to crash and burn,

ili će propasti,

which is tough on their shareholders.

što će njihovi deoničari teško primiti.

It doesn't bother the taxpayer necessarily.

Ovo ne mora obavezno biti o trošku poreskih obaveznika.

And there would be no constraints on alternative markets.

I ne bi trebalo biti ograničenja na alternativna tržišta.

So this would just be one more choice

Tako bi ovo bio samo jedan od izbora

among millions of Internet forums.

među milionima internet foruma.

But it could be very different,

Ali ovaj može biti dosta drugačiji,

because having access to those state-backed facilities

jer imanje pristupa onim mehanizmima podrške od strane države

could incentivize this consortium

može motivisati konzorcijum

to seriously invest in the service.

da ozbiljno investira u servis.

Because they would have to get a lot of these small transactions going

Jer oni bi trebalo da naprave puno malih transakcija

to start making their return.

da bi napravili sopstveni profit.

So we're talking about sectors like home hair care,

Dakle, pričamo o sektorima kao što su kućne frizerske usluge,

the hire of toys, farm work,

iznajmljivanje igračaka, poslovi na polju,

hire of clothes even, meals delivered to your door,

čak i iznajmljivanje odeće, obroci koji se dostavljaju na vrata,

services for tourists, home care.

usluge turistima, nega u kući.

This would be a world of very small trades, but very well-informed,

Ovo je svet malih poslova, ali veoma dobro obaveštenih,

because national e-markets will deliver data.

jer će nacionalna e-tržišta pružati podatke.

So this is a local person

Ovo je lokalna osoba

potentially deciding whether to enter the babysitting market.

koja se odlučuje da li će ući na tržište bebisiting usluga.

And they might be aware that they would have to fund vetting and training

Mogu znati da će morati da plate provere i obuke

if they wanted to go into that market.

ako se žele uključiti na to tržište.

They'd have to do assessment interviews with local parents

Trebalo bi da idu na intervjue sa lokalnim roditeljima

who wanted a pool of babysitters.

koji žele grupu bebisitera.

Is it worth their while?

Da li im se isplati?

Should they be looking at other sectors?

Da li bi trebalo da prate druge sektore?

Should they be moving to another part of the country

Da li bi trebalo da se presele u drugi deo zemlje

where there's a shortage of babysitters?

gde postoji nedostatak bebisitera?

This kind of data can become routine.

Ova vrsta podataka može postati rutina.

And this data can be used by investors.

Ove podatke mogu da iskoriste investitori.

So if there's a problem with a shortage of babysitters in some parts of the country

Tako da ako postoji problem sa nedostatkom bebisitera u nekim delovima zemlje

and the problem is nobody can afford the vetting and training,

i problem je u tome što niko ne može da plati proveravanje i trening,

an investor can pay for it

investitor to može da plati

and the system will tithe back the enhanced earnings of the individuals

i sistem će to nadoknaditi kroz uvećane zarade pojedinaca

for maybe the next two years.

možda u naredne dve godine.

This is a world of atomized capitalism.

Ovo je svet atomiziranog kapitalizma.

So it's small trades by small people,

Radi se o malim poslovima malih ljudi,

but it's very informed, safe, convenient, low-overhead and immediate.

ali veoma informisanim, sigurnim, podesnim, jeftinim i neposrednim.

Some rough research suggests this could unlock

Grube procene predviđaju da bi ovo moglo otključati

around 100 million pounds' worth a day of new economic activity

oko 100 miliona funti dnevnih ekonomskih aktivnosti

in a country the size of the U.K.

u zemlji veličine Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva.

Does that sound improbable to you?

Da li vam ovo zvuči neverovatno?

That's what a lot of people said about turbo trading

To je puno ljudi reklo o turbo trgovini

in financial exchanges 20 years ago.

u finansijskim razmenama pre 20 godina.

Do not underestimate the transformative power

Ne podcenjujte moć transformacije

of truly modern markets.

stvarno modernih tržišta.

Thank you.

Hvala

(Applause)

(Aplauz)