Wingham Rowan: A new kind of job market

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Ho-chung Chou 審譯者: Sailin Lu

This is about a hidden corner of the labor market.

今天要講的是人力市場中鮮為人知的族群。

It's the world of people who need to work ultra-flexibly,

這個族群的人需要極為彈性的上班時間，

if they're to work at all.

前提是有班能上。

So think, for instance,

試想一下，比方說，

of someone who has a recurring but unpredictable medical condition,

罹患慢性病、病情反覆不定的病患，

or somebody who's caring for a dependent adult,

或者照顧失能成年人的看護，

or a parent with complex child care needs.

或者照顧罹患多重障礙的兒女的家長。

Their availability for work can be such that it's,

他們留給工作的時間可能是：

"A few hours today.

「今天幾小時。

Maybe I can work tomorrow, but I don't know if and when yet."

明天或許可以上班， 但是之後我就不知道了。」

And it's extraordinarily difficult for these people

這些人很難找得到工作，

to find the work that they so often need very badly.

而他們往往迫切需要一份工作。

Which is a tragedy because there are employers

可惜的是，其實有不少僱主

who can use pools of very flexible local people

可以僱用一大群彈性上班的當地人，

booked completely ad hoc around when that person wants to work.

根據員工能上班的時段， 量身打造他們的班表。

Imagine that you run a cafe.

好比說你開了一間咖啡店，

It's mid-morning, the place is filling up.

日上三竿，店內人潮湧現。

You're going to have a busy lunchtime rush.

你準備應付繁忙的午餐時間。

If you could get two extra workers for 90 minutes

如果午餐時段能多兩個員工幫忙一個半小時

to start in an hour's time,

並可以在一小時內上工

you'd do it, but they'd have to be reliable, inducted in how your cafe works.

你當然願意，但這些人一定要可靠， 熟悉咖啡店的運作。

They'd have to be available at very competitive rates.

他們的工資一定也要符合行情。

They'd have to be bookable in about the next minute.

這些人手一定要能隨傳隨到。

In reality, no recruitment agency wants to handle that sort of business,

實際上，沒有一間人力公司想接這種生意，

so you are going to muddle by, understaffed.

所以你會因為缺員而捉襟見肘。

And it's not just caterers, it's hoteliers, it's retailers,

不只有餐飲業，還有飯店業和零售業，

it's anyone who provides services to the public or businesses.

只要是提供服務給社會大眾的行業都 會遇到這種狀況。

There's all sorts of organizations that can use these pools of very flexible people,

許多機關組織其實都用得上 這些彈性上班的員工，

possibly already once they've been inducted.

說不定早在有人引薦前就開始雇用了。

At this level of the labor market,

從這個層面來看人力市場，

what you need is a marketplace for spare hours.

你需要的是一個仲介閒暇勞力的平台。

They do exist. Here's how they work.

真的有這地方。其運作方式如下：

So in this example, a distribution company has said,

舉個例子，有間物流公司說：

we've got a rush order that we've got to get out of the warehouse tomorrow morning.

我們收到急單，明早之前必須從倉庫出貨。

Show us everyone who's available.

告訴我們有哪些人可用。

It's found 31 workers.

結果找到 31 名工人。

Everybody on this screen is genuinely available at those specific hours tomorrow.

螢幕上的人都能在 明天的特定時段提供勞力。

They're all contactable in time for this booking.

每個人都聯絡得到， 都能在預定時間準時上工。

They've all defined the terms on which they will accept bookings.

他們都列出了接受預約的條件。

And this booking is within all the parameters for each individual.

而每個應徵者的條件都符合這次預約。

And they would all be legally compliant by doing this booking.

他們也都俱有履行本次預約的合法條件。

Of course, they're all trained to work in warehouses.

當然，他們全都受過倉儲工作的相關訓練。

You can select as many of them as you want.

你想選幾個人都行。

They're from multiple agencies.

他們來自多間仲介公司。

It's calculated the charge rate for each person for this specific booking.

每一次預約時， 個人工作時薪會重新計算。

And it's monitoring their reliability.

並持續評估這些應徵者的可靠程度。

The people on the top row are the provenly reliable ones.

名單頂端的人選，都有可靠的工作紀錄。

They're likely to be more expensive.

他們的工資通常比較高。

In an alternative view of this pool of local, very flexible people,

換個角度看這個族群， 這些工時非常彈性的人，

here's a market research company,

這是一家市場調查公司，

and it's inducted maybe 25 local people in how to do street interviewing.

該公司培訓了約 25 名當地人， 要他們進行街頭訪問。

And they've got a new campaign. They want to run it next week.

這公司有個新活動，打算下星期開始執行。

And they're looking at how many of the people they've inducted

他們想知道等到下星期，每個鐘點

are available each hour next week.

能找到幾個培訓員工上班。

And they'll then decide when to do their street interviews.

然後他們就會決定何時進行街頭訪問。

But is there more that could be done

而我們是否還能為勞動市場中的

for this corner of the labor market?

這個族群做些甚麼？

Because right now there are so many people

因為就在此刻， 很多人為求改善經濟狀況，

who need whatever economic opportunity they can get.

不願放過任何一份工作機會。

Let's make it personal.

看看一個貼身的例子。

Imagine that a young woman -- base of the economic pyramid,

如果說，有位年輕女子， 金字塔底部的經濟弱勢族群，

very little prospect of getting a job --

找到工作的機會渺茫，

what economic activity could she theoretically engage in?

理論上，她能參與何種經濟活動？

Well, she might be willing to work odd hours

或許她願意打打零工，

in a call center, in a reception area, in a mail room.

到客服中心、接待處，或郵務室工作。

She may be interested in providing local services to her community:

或許她有興趣加入當地的社區服務：

babysitting, local deliveries, pet care.

做保姆、本地郵遞，或是照顧寵物。

She may have possessions that she would like to trade

或許她手邊有一些物品，等到用不到時

at times she doesn't need them.

想拿出來變賣。

So she might have a sofa bed in her front room that she would like to let out.

說不定她的客廳有張沙發床想出讓。

She might have a bike, a video games console she only uses occasionally.

或許她有一輛單車、 一台偶爾玩玩的電視遊戲機。

And you're probably thinking -- because you're all very web-aware --

而你們可能認為， 因為各位的網路消息都很靈通，

yes, and we're in the era of collaborative consumption,

沒錯，我們現在身在一個合作消費的世代，

so she can go online and do all this.

所以她可以上網完成所有步驟。

She can go to Airbnb to list her sofa bed,

她可以上 Airbnb 標示她有張沙發床，

she can go to TaskRabbit.com and say, "I want to do local deliveries," and so on.

她可以上 TaskRabbit.com 說： 「我想應徵本地快遞」之類的。

These are good sites, but I believe we can go a step further.

那些網站都不錯， 但我相信我們能更進一步。

And the key to that is a philosophy that we call modern markets for all.

箇中訣竅是我們稱之為 「各適其所的現代市場」哲學。

Markets have changed beyond recognition in the last 20 years,

過去二十年來， 市場起了翻天覆地的變化，

but only for organizations at the top of the economy.

但這些變化都只對 經濟金字塔頂層的組織有利。

If you're a Wall Street trader, you now take it for granted

如果你是華爾街交易員， 你視為理所當然的事，

that you sell your financial assets in a system of markets

就是在市場系統中 買賣自己的金融資產，

that identifies the most profitable opportunities for you in real time,

這種市場能即時為你 找出最有機會獲利的交易，

executes on that in microseconds within the boundaries you've set.

用你預設的停損點執行交易，花不到一秒鐘。

It analyzes supply and demand and pricing

會幫你分析供應和需求和定價，

and tells you where your next wave of opportunities are coming from.

然後告訴你下一波機會從哪裡出現。

It manages counterparty risk in incredibly sophisticated ways.

它以非常複雜的方式管理交易對手風險。

It's all extremely low overhead.

這種方式的成本極低。

What have we gained at the bottom of the economy

藉由市場經濟的名義，過去 20 年來我們

in terms of markets in the last 20 years?

從金字塔底部掠奪了多少資源？

Basically classified adverts with a search facility.

基本上我是以搜索工具來分類這些廣告。

So why do we have this disparity

所以為什麼金字塔頂端那些

between these incredibly sophisticated markets at the top of the economy

極為複雜的市場之間會有差異，

that are increasingly sucking more and more activity and resource

這些市場從經濟主體汲取出 越來越多的活力和資源，

out of the main economy into this rarefied level of trading,

然後將其投注在 某種考究複雜的高階交易，

and what the rest of us have?

那我們其他人還剩甚麼？

A modern market is more than a website;

現代化市場不是單純的網站；

it's a web of interoperable marketplaces,

這樣的網站是互助互用的交易場所，

back office mechanisms, regulatory regimes,

擁有後台作業機制、市場監管制度、

settlement mechanisms, liquidity sources and so on.

解決紛爭機制、 流動性來源等等。

And when a Wall Street trader comes into work in the morning,

當我們這位華爾街交易員開始一早的工作，

she does not write a listing for every financial derivative she wants to sell today

她不用把今天想賣的 每一種衍生性金融商品寫成清單，

and then post that listing on multiple websites

然後把清單貼在好幾個網站上，

and wait for potential buyers to get in touch

然後等待潛在買家上門聯繫，

and start negotiating the terms on which she might trade.

然後開始就可能的交易來協商期限。

In the early days of this modern markets technology,

這種早期的現代行銷技術，

the financial institutions worked out

是金融機構想出來的，

how they could leverage their buying power, their back office processes,

如何槓桿操作他們的購買力、 後臺作業的流程、

their relationships, their networks

業界的關係、網路，

to shape these new markets that would create all this new activity.

來塑造這些新興市場， 進而創造這種新型態的活動。

They asked governments for supporting regulatory regimes,

他們要求政府提供 市場監管制度的支援，

and in a lot of cases they got it.

很多交易都得到了幫助。

But throughout the economy,

但就整體經濟而言，

there are facilities that could likewise leverage

有功能相同的工具

a new generation of markets

能槓桿操作新一代的市場，

for the benefit of all of us.

以我們所有人的利益為前提。

And those facilities --

和那些工具......

I'm talking about things like the mechanisms that prove our identity,

我說的是一種機制， 能辨識我們的身份，

the licensing authorities

能核准證照的機關，

that know what each of us is allowed to do legally at any given time,

知道我們每個人何時擁有哪些合法的執行許可，

the processes by which we resolve disputes through official channels.

掌握我們透過官方管道 解決紛爭的過程。

These mechanisms, these facilities

這些機制和這些工具，

are not in the gift of Craigslist or Gumtree or Yahoo,

不是 Craigslist 或 Gumtree 或雅虎提供的免費服務，

they're controlled by the state.

而是由國家控制。

And the policymakers who sit on top of them

而這些高層的政策制定者，

are, I suggest, simply not thinking about how those facilities could be used

我在猜，並沒有思考過如何善用這些設施

to underpin a whole new era of markets.

來鞏固這一代截然不同的市場。

Like everyone else, those policymakers are taking it for granted

這些政策制定者認為， 他們那有力的機關

that modern markets are the preserve

將現代市場視為己物是理所當然的事，

of organizations powerful enough to create them for themselves.

不須外力介入，就能獨自創造這些市場。

Suppose we stopped taking that for granted.

假設我們不再視其為理所當然。

Suppose tomorrow morning the prime minister of Britain or the president of the U.S.,

假設明天早上英國首相或美國總統，

or the leader of any other developed nation,

或其他任何一個已開發國家的領導人，

woke up and said, "I'm never going to be able to create

起床後說："我永遠創造不出

all the jobs I need in the current climate.

目前這種景氣所需的工作機會。

I have got to focus on whatever economic opportunity I can get to my citizens.

我必須專心為我的選民 留意任何經濟機會。

And for that they have to be able to access state-of-the-art markets.

為此，他們必須有接觸 這些先進市場的管道。

How do I make that happen?"

我該怎麼做？"

And I think I can see a few eyes rolling.

我想我看到幾個人在思考了。

Politicians in a big, complex, sophisticated I.T. project?

找幾個政客負責一個 龐大、複雜、精緻的 I.T.專案嗎？

Oh, that's going to be a disaster waiting to happen.

那會是一場伺機而動的災難。

Not necessarily.

其實未必。

There is a precedent for technology-enabled service

這裡有個科技輔助服務的先例，

that has been initiated by politicians in multiple countries

由好幾個國家的政治家都推動過，

and has been hugely successful:

結果極為成功：

national lotteries.

國家彩票。

Let's take Britain as an example.

我們以英國為例。

Our government didn't design the national lottery,

國家彩票不是我們的政府設計的，

it didn't fund the national lottery, it doesn't operate the national lottery.

我們的政府沒有挹注國家彩票，也沒有經營國家彩票。

It simply passed the National Lottery Act and this is what followed.

我們只是通過國家彩票法， 接下來就變成這樣。

This act defines what a national lottery will look like.

這個法案規定了國家彩票的模式。

It specifies certain benefits

法案明訂，政府有權決定

that the state can uniquely bestow on the operators.

將某部分的盈餘分配給經營者，

And it puts some obligations on those operators.

因此這些營運者必須尊行某些義務。

In terms of spreading gambling activity to the masses,

若是以推廣全民賭博活動來說，

this was an unqualified success.

這是無庸置疑的成功。

But let's suppose that our aim

但是，如果假設我們的目標，

is to bring new economic activity to the base of the pyramid.

是讓新的經濟動力投入金字塔的底部族群。

Could we use the same model?

我們能使用相同模式嗎？

I believe we could.

我認為可以。

So imagine that policymakers outlined a facility.

想像一下，這些政策制定者提出了一個草案。

Let's call it national e-markets, NEMs for short.

讓我們稱之為全國電子市場，簡稱 NEMs。

Think of it as a regulated public utility.

把它當做一種受管制的公共事業，

So it's on a par with the water supply or the road network.

所以和自來水供應 或交通網路是一樣的。

And it's a series of markets for low-level trade

那是一系列的低階交易市場，

that can be fulfilled by a person or a small company.

個人或小型公司就能進行交易。

And government has certain benefits

政府擁有特定比例的營收，

it can uniquely bestow on these markets.

能當做津貼，專門補助這些市場。

It's about public spending going through these markets

藉由這些市場，公共支出的資金

to buy public services at the local level.

能購買地區性的公共服務。

It's about interfacing these markets

這是一種介面，將這些市場

direct into the highest official channels in the land.

直接連結到全國最高層的官方管道。

It's about enshrining government's role as a publicist for these markets.

這樣是把政府扮演的 市場公關角色奉為神明。

It's about deregulating some sectors

解除某些法令限制，

so that local people can enter them.

讓當地人民得以參與其中。

So, taxi journeys might be one example.

計程車遊覽就是個例子。

And there are certain obligations that should go with those benefits

這些經營者要享受特定福利，

to be placed on the operators,

就要遵從特定義務，

and the key one is, of course,

首要關鍵，當然是

that the operators pay for everything,

經營者支付一切開銷，

including all the interfacing into the public sector.

包括所有連結公共部門的介面。

So imagine that the operators make their return

想像一下，經營者將加價率

by building a percentage markup into each transaction.

加入每筆交易中，藉此賺取利潤。

Imagine that there's a concession period

想像一下，這是專營期，

defined of maybe 15 years

期限算是 15 年好了

in which they can take all these benefits and run with them.

這段期間他們可以 拿走所有利潤並以此投入營運。

And imagine that the consortia who bid to run it are told,

想像一下，有人告訴那些 想要經營這種市場的財團，

whoever comes in at the lowest percentage markup on each transaction

只要有誰能以最低加價率的交易來

to fund the whole thing

提供整個體系的資金，

will get the deal.

就能拿到生意。

So government then exits the frame.

然後政府會功成身退。

This is now in the hands of the consortium.

現在這是在財團的手中。

Either they are going to unlock an awful lot of economic opportunity

要嘛他們就釋出驚人數量的經濟機會，

and make a percentage on all of it

從中賺取百分之一的利潤，

or it's all going to crash and burn,

否則一切將會崩潰殆盡，

which is tough on their shareholders.

他們的股東不會接受這點的。

It doesn't bother the taxpayer necessarily.

這件事未必會困擾納稅人。

And there would be no constraints on alternative markets.

而其他的替代市場也不會有限制。

So this would just be one more choice

所以，數以百萬的網路論壇中

among millions of Internet forums.

就多了一個選擇。

But it could be very different,

但結果可能截然不同，

because having access to those state-backed facilities

因為有機會利用國家支援的這些工具，

could incentivize this consortium

財團也受到鼓舞

to seriously invest in the service.

而認真地投資該項服務。

Because they would have to get a lot of these small transactions going

因為他們要讓很多這樣子的小型交易進行，

to start making their return.

才能開始賺取利潤。

So we're talking about sectors like home hair care,

所以我們說的是家庭理髮、

the hire of toys, farm work,

玩具出租、 農場工作、

hire of clothes even, meals delivered to your door,

衣服出租，甚至是飯菜外送到府這種行業，

services for tourists, home care.

遊客服務，家庭照護。

This would be a world of very small trades, but very well-informed,

這是個小型行業當道的世界，而且消息非常流通，

because national e-markets will deliver data.

因為國家電子市場會提供資料。

So this is a local person

這是位本地人，

potentially deciding whether to enter the babysitting market.

正在考慮要不要投身保姆市場。

And they might be aware that they would have to fund vetting and training

他知道自己若要進入市場，

if they wanted to go into that market.

可能需要投入審查和訓練的資金。

They'd have to do assessment interviews with local parents

他可能會拜訪當地的父母進行評估，

who wanted a pool of babysitters.

有想願意加入保姆行列。

Is it worth their while?

這值得他們花時間嗎？

Should they be looking at other sectors?

他們應該找其他行業嗎？

Should they be moving to another part of the country

他們應該搬到國內其他

where there's a shortage of babysitters?

保姆短缺的地方嗎？

This kind of data can become routine.

提供這種資料可以成為例行程序。

And this data can be used by investors.

這種資料可以讓投資者使用。

So if there's a problem with a shortage of babysitters in some parts of the country

所以如果國內某處有保姆短缺，

and the problem is nobody can afford the vetting and training,

但問題是沒人負擔得起 審查和培訓所需的費用，

an investor can pay for it

這可以由投資者支付，

and the system will tithe back the enhanced earnings of the individuals

而這個機制會將十分之一 回饋給收入越來越高的個人，

for maybe the next two years.

也許能持續兩年。

This is a world of atomized capitalism.

這是個原子化的資本主義世界。

So it's small trades by small people,

所以少數人做小型生意，

but it's very informed, safe, convenient, low-overhead and immediate.

而這是非常明智、 安全、 方便、 低成本和直接的做法。

Some rough research suggests this could unlock

某些研究的初步結果表示， 這種新經濟活動

around 100 million pounds' worth a day of new economic activity

每天可以創造的產值大約一億英鎊，

in a country the size of the U.K.

在英國這種規模的國家。

Does that sound improbable to you?

你們覺得不大可能嗎？

That's what a lot of people said about turbo trading

20 年前，很多人對 金融交易所的渦輪增壓交易

in financial exchanges 20 years ago.

也有這種看法。

Do not underestimate the transformative power

不要低估真正的現代市場的

of truly modern markets.

變革力量。

Thank you.

謝謝大家。

(Applause)

（掌聲）