Wingham Rowan: A new kind of job market

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻译人员: Emma Zhao 校对人员: Claire Yeh

This is about a hidden corner of the labor market.

劳动力市场上有个角落倍受冷落。

It's the world of people who need to work ultra-flexibly,

世界上有很多人需要特别灵活的工作时间，

if they're to work at all.

如果他们需要工作的话。

So think, for instance,

例如，

of someone who has a recurring but unpredictable medical condition,

一个人患病，有经常性的却不知道什么时候会发作的病

or somebody who's caring for a dependent adult,

或是家里有无自主能力需要照顾的成年人

or a parent with complex child care needs.

抑或是一对需要照顾孩子的父母

Their availability for work can be such that it's,

他们能工作的时间仅仅是

"A few hours today.

"今天的几个小时。

Maybe I can work tomorrow, but I don't know if and when yet."

也许明天我可以工作，但这都不确定"。

And it's extraordinarily difficult for these people

这些人要找工作十分困难，

to find the work that they so often need very badly.

偏偏他们又十分需要工作。

Which is a tragedy because there are employers

这简直是悲剧，

who can use pools of very flexible local people

因为这是一群可以灵活运用的本地雇员，

booked completely ad hoc around when that person wants to work.

这些人的时间可以在想要工作的时候被预订

Imagine that you run a cafe.

想象你有一家快餐厅

It's mid-morning, the place is filling up.

正好是中午，人满为患。

You're going to have a busy lunchtime rush.

繁忙的午餐时间马上就道了。

If you could get two extra workers for 90 minutes

如果你能雇两个额外的员工，来做个把小时

to start in an hour's time,

帮你照顾这要命的90分钟。

you'd do it, but they'd have to be reliable, inducted in how your cafe works.

你肯定很乐意。当然，他们得可靠并熟悉快餐厅的工作。

They'd have to be available at very competitive rates.

他们的工资得很有竞争力，

They'd have to be bookable in about the next minute.

他们得可以立即被预订

In reality, no recruitment agency wants to handle that sort of business,

现实中，没有招聘代理机构愿意碰这类业务

so you are going to muddle by, understaffed.

因此，你只能在人手不足时勉强应付。

And it's not just caterers, it's hoteliers, it's retailers,

这不只是快餐业（的问题），它是酒店经营者、 零售商，

it's anyone who provides services to the public or businesses.

它是任何人向公众或企业提供服务的人（的问题）。

There's all sorts of organizations that can use these pools of very flexible people,

有各种各样的组织，可以使用这些需要自由工作时间的人，

possibly already once they've been inducted.

可能他们已经被招募了。

At this level of the labor market,

在这一级别的劳动力市场，

what you need is a marketplace for spare hours.

你需要的是一个可以交易空闲时间的市场

They do exist. Here's how they work.

它们确实存在。它们是这样运作的。

So in this example, a distribution company has said,

例如，一个分销公司说，

we've got a rush order that we've got to get out of the warehouse tomorrow morning.

我们有个急件，要求明天早上就得送出仓库。

Show us everyone who's available.

告诉我们谁有空。

It's found 31 workers.

它找到31个人有空

Everybody on this screen is genuinely available at those specific hours tomorrow.

这屏幕出现的每个人，在明天指定的几个小时内，都绝对可以工作。

They're all contactable in time for this booking.

他们在这个预约时间内都可以联系到。

They've all defined the terms on which they will accept bookings.

他们已经提出了接受预约的条件。

And this booking is within all the parameters for each individual.

而这个预约满足了这里每一个人的所有要求

And they would all be legally compliant by doing this booking.

满足了所有法律规定的要求

Of course, they're all trained to work in warehouses.

当然，他们对于仓库工作训练有素。

You can select as many of them as you want.

你可以按你的需求选择尽可能多的雇员。

They're from multiple agencies.

他们来自多个中介机构。

It's calculated the charge rate for each person for this specific booking.

这里计算出这次预约要付给每个人多少雇佣金。

And it's monitoring their reliability.

同时还可以核查他们的真实性。

The people on the top row are the provenly reliable ones.

最上面一行的人，是最可靠的。

They're likely to be more expensive.

所以雇佣金可能会高点。

In an alternative view of this pool of local, very flexible people,

另一个这些人可以发挥作用的场合，

here's a market research company,

有一个市场调研公司，

and it's inducted maybe 25 local people in how to do street interviewing.

它征召了25个本地人并告诉他们怎么做街头采访。

And they've got a new campaign. They want to run it next week.

他们有一个新的市场计划。他们想要下个星期就付诸行动。

And they're looking at how many of the people they've inducted

他们可以看他们招募的这些人中

are available each hour next week.

在下周每天中分别有几个小时有空。

And they'll then decide when to do their street interviews.

他们然后会决定什么时候做街头采访。

But is there more that could be done

但是我们还可以为

for this corner of the labor market?

劳动力市场角落的这些人做得更多吗？

Because right now there are so many people

因为现在有这么多人

who need whatever economic opportunity they can get.

会尽力争取到一切可以挣钱的机会

Let's make it personal.

让我们使其个性化。

Imagine that a young woman -- base of the economic pyramid,

想象一下一名年轻女子——在经济金字塔的底端，

very little prospect of getting a job --

很差的就业前景——

what economic activity could she theoretically engage in?

她可以参与什么经济活动呢？

Well, she might be willing to work odd hours

嗯，她可能会愿意在别人不愿意的时段工作

in a call center, in a reception area, in a mail room.

在电话中心，接待员，或者邮局。

She may be interested in providing local services to her community:

她可能会对为她的社区提供服务感兴趣：

babysitting, local deliveries, pet care.

保姆、 送货、宠物护理。

She may have possessions that she would like to trade

她可能有她想要交易的物品，

at times she doesn't need them.

当她不需要的时候。

So she might have a sofa bed in her front room that she would like to let out.

所以她可能在客厅有个沙发床想要出让，

She might have a bike, a video games console she only uses occasionally.

她可能会有偶尔用用的自行车和游戏机。

And you're probably thinking -- because you're all very web-aware --

你可能会想——因为你们都非常熟悉互联网——

yes, and we're in the era of collaborative consumption,

是的，我们是在合作消费的时代，

so she can go online and do all this.

所以她可以在网上做这些事。

She can go to Airbnb to list her sofa bed,

她可以去Airbnb列出她的沙发床

she can go to TaskRabbit.com and say, "I want to do local deliveries," and so on.

她可以到TaskRabbit.com去说："我想要做本地的送货服务。"等等。

These are good sites, but I believe we can go a step further.

这些都是不错的网站，但我相信我们可以走的更远。

And the key to that is a philosophy that we call modern markets for all.

其中的关键在于被称作大众现代市场的哲理。

Markets have changed beyond recognition in the last 20 years,

在过去的 20 年中，市场产生了很大的变化，

but only for organizations at the top of the economy.

但只是为高层的经济组织。

If you're a Wall Street trader, you now take it for granted

如果你是华尔街交易员，你现在认为它理所当然，

that you sell your financial assets in a system of markets

你在一个系统的市场出售你的金融资产

that identifies the most profitable opportunities for you in real time,

当下市场体系中最具利润的机会，

executes on that in microseconds within the boundaries you've set.

这个体系在你设置的边界内的一微秒内，

It analyzes supply and demand and pricing

能够分析出供求和定价

and tells you where your next wave of opportunities are coming from.

并告诉你下一波机会来自何处。

It manages counterparty risk in incredibly sophisticated ways.

它以令人难以置信的复杂的方式管理交易风险。

It's all extremely low overhead.

它把所有额外开销降到最低。

What have we gained at the bottom of the economy

我们从经济金字塔的底部得到了什么

in terms of markets in the last 20 years?

在去20 年的市场中？

Basically classified adverts with a search facility.

基本上只有分类广告与搜索引擎。

So why do we have this disparity

所以我们为什么有这种差异

between these incredibly sophisticated markets at the top of the economy

这些令人难以置信的复杂市场顶部的经济之间

that are increasingly sucking more and more activity and resource

这越来越多地吸更多的活动和资源

out of the main economy into this rarefied level of trading,

主要经济成这出稀薄交易的水平

and what the rest of us have?

我们其余的人有什么？

A modern market is more than a website;

一个现代的市场不只是一个网站 ；

it's a web of interoperable marketplaces,

它是一个 可互操作市场的网络，

back office mechanisms, regulatory regimes,

后台公室机制、 管理制度，

settlement mechanisms, liquidity sources and so on.

解决机制、 流动性来源等等。

And when a Wall Street trader comes into work in the morning,

当华尔街交易员早上上班时，

she does not write a listing for every financial derivative she wants to sell today

她不会为每个她今天想要卖掉金融衍生产品去列表

and then post that listing on multiple websites

然后把这个表发到多个网站上

and wait for potential buyers to get in touch

等待潜在买家来联系

and start negotiating the terms on which she might trade.

好开始谈判她可能交易的条款。

In the early days of this modern markets technology,

在现代市场技术的早期，

the financial institutions worked out

金融机构想出方法

how they could leverage their buying power, their back office processes,

如何能利用他们的购买能力，他们的后台办公流程，

their relationships, their networks

他们的关系，他们的网络

to shape these new markets that would create all this new activity.

去塑造创造这项新活动的新市场。

They asked governments for supporting regulatory regimes,

他们要求政府支持的监管制度，

and in a lot of cases they got it.

并在很多情况下，他们得到了。

But throughout the economy,

但在整个经济，

there are facilities that could likewise leverage

有很多设施同样可以利用

a new generation of markets

一代新的市场

for the benefit of all of us.

来帮助我们所有的人。

And those facilities --

这些设施-

I'm talking about things like the mechanisms that prove our identity,

我所说的诸如机制来证明我们的身份，

the licensing authorities

发牌当局

that know what each of us is allowed to do legally at any given time,

知道我们每个人都允许在任何给定时间去合法的做这些流程

the processes by which we resolve disputes through official channels.

我们通过官方渠道来解决争端。

These mechanisms, these facilities

这些机制，这些设施

are not in the gift of Craigslist or Gumtree or Yahoo,

不在 Craigslist 或Gumtree或雅虎这样的网站的礼品栏里，

they're controlled by the state.

他们是由国家控制。

And the policymakers who sit on top of them

坐在上面的政策制定者

are, I suggest, simply not thinking about how those facilities could be used

我认为，并没有考虑如何运用这些设施

to underpin a whole new era of markets.

以巩固市场的全新时代。

Like everyone else, those policymakers are taking it for granted

像其他人一样，这些政策制定者也认为理所当然

that modern markets are the preserve

现代市场都保留

of organizations powerful enough to create them for themselves.

强大到足以创建他们自己的组织。

Suppose we stopped taking that for granted.

假设我们不再把它想当然。

Suppose tomorrow morning the prime minister of Britain or the president of the U.S.,

假设明天早上，英国总理或美国总统

or the leader of any other developed nation,

或任何其他发达国家的领导人

woke up and said, "I'm never going to be able to create

醒来了说："我再也不能够创造

all the jobs I need in the current climate.

当前所需要到所有工作机会。

I have got to focus on whatever economic opportunity I can get to my citizens.

我要侧重于我能带给我的人民的经济机会。

And for that they have to be able to access state-of-the-art markets.

为此他们必须能够接近最新的市场。

How do I make that happen?"

如何能做到呢?"

And I think I can see a few eyes rolling.

我会看到有些人不相信。

Politicians in a big, complex, sophisticated I.T. project?

政客们在做一个复杂尖端的大IT项目？

Oh, that's going to be a disaster waiting to happen.

哦，那将会是一场灾难。

Not necessarily.

也不一定。

There is a precedent for technology-enabled service

以前曾有一个技术驱动型的服务

that has been initiated by politicians in multiple countries

这是由多个国家的政界人士发起的

and has been hugely successful:

并已取得巨大成功：

national lotteries.

国家政府奖券。

Let's take Britain as an example.

让我们以英国为例。

Our government didn't design the national lottery,

我们的政府没有设计国家彩票，

it didn't fund the national lottery, it doesn't operate the national lottery.

它没有资助国家彩票，它不会操纵国家彩票。

It simply passed the National Lottery Act and this is what followed.

它只是通过了《国家彩票法》 ，然后付诸实施。

This act defines what a national lottery will look like.

该法令规定了国家彩票将是什么样子。

It specifies certain benefits

它明确了某些福利

that the state can uniquely bestow on the operators.

也唯独国家可以赋予经营者这些福利。

And it puts some obligations on those operators.

并赋予这些经营者一些义务。

In terms of spreading gambling activity to the masses,

在传播赌博活动方面，

this was an unqualified success.

这是一个不合格的成功。

But let's suppose that our aim

让我们假设，我们的目标

is to bring new economic activity to the base of the pyramid.

是给金字塔的底部带来新的经济活动。

Could we use the same model?

我们能使用相同的模式吗？

I believe we could.

我相信我们可以。

So imagine that policymakers outlined a facility.

想象一下政策制定者描绘出了一个大概的设施。

Let's call it national e-markets, NEMs for short.

让我们称之为国家电子市场，简称 NEMs。

Think of it as a regulated public utility.

把它当作受监管的公用事业。

So it's on a par with the water supply or the road network.

所以它可与水的供应或道路网络相提并论。

And it's a series of markets for low-level trade

它是一系列的低级贸易市场

that can be fulfilled by a person or a small company.

这可以由一人或一个小公司来完成。

And government has certain benefits

政府有一定的福利

it can uniquely bestow on these markets.

是唯独它才能够授予这些市场的。

It's about public spending going through these markets

公共开支就是通过这些市场

to buy public services at the local level.

交换回地方级别的公共服务。

It's about interfacing these markets

这些市场相互接轨

direct into the highest official channels in the land.

直接进入最高官方渠道。

It's about enshrining government's role as a publicist for these markets.

是有关在这些市场中政府所扮演的宣传员的角色。

It's about deregulating some sectors

是关于放宽某些部门

so that local people can enter them.

从而使当地人民可以进入到这些部门。

So, taxi journeys might be one example.

所以，的士旅途可能是一个例子。

And there are certain obligations that should go with those benefits

而在享有福利的同时也应该有某些义务

to be placed on the operators,

给经营者，

and the key one is, of course,

当然，关键的一个是，

that the operators pay for everything,

经营者支付一切，

including all the interfacing into the public sector.

包括为接轨公共部门的所有费用。

So imagine that the operators make their return

想象一下经营者的获益

by building a percentage markup into each transaction.

来自于在每笔交易当中所占据的一定抽成。

Imagine that there's a concession period

想象一下有优惠期

defined of maybe 15 years

也许 定为15 年

in which they can take all these benefits and run with them.

这期间，他们得到所有的福利并应用于运营。

And imagine that the consortia who bid to run it are told,

想象一下得到运营 的财团被告知，

whoever comes in at the lowest percentage markup on each transaction

谁在每笔交易中的百分比最低

to fund the whole thing

来资助整个运营

will get the deal.

就将获得这笔交易。

So government then exits the frame.

然后政府就会退出。

This is now in the hands of the consortium.

如今就由财团来掌控。

Either they are going to unlock an awful lot of economic opportunity

要么他们要解锁很多的经济机会

and make a percentage on all of it

并且从中抽成

or it's all going to crash and burn,

要么就任由它亏损破产，

which is tough on their shareholders.

对其股东来说是很难的。

It doesn't bother the taxpayer necessarily.

它不一定妨碍纳税人。

And there would be no constraints on alternative markets.

对其他市场也没有制约。

So this would just be one more choice

所以这只不过是会多一个选择出现在

among millions of Internet forums.

在数以百万计互联网论坛中。

But it could be very different,

它可能是非常不同的

because having access to those state-backed facilities

因为进入这些国家支持的设施

could incentivize this consortium

可以激励这个财团

to seriously invest in the service.

来认真投资这项服务。

Because they would have to get a lot of these small transactions going

因为他们要让大量的小笔交易

to start making their return.

开始为他们谋利。

So we're talking about sectors like home hair care,

所以我们讲的是诸如家庭头发护理，

the hire of toys, farm work,

租用玩具、 农场工作，

hire of clothes even, meals delivered to your door,

甚至租用衣服，和送餐服务，

services for tourists, home care.

旅游、 家庭护理服务。

This would be a world of very small trades, but very well-informed,

这会是一些不起眼的行业，但消息非常灵通

because national e-markets will deliver data.

因为国家电子市场将提供数据。

So this is a local person

所以这是一个本地人

potentially deciding whether to enter the babysitting market.

可能决定是否进入保姆市场。

And they might be aware that they would have to fund vetting and training

而他们也可能会发现他们要花钱去做审批和接受培训

if they wanted to go into that market.

只要他们想进入这个市场的话。

They'd have to do assessment interviews with local parents

他们要与本地想雇佣保姆的家长

who wanted a pool of babysitters.

做评估面试。

Is it worth their while?

这值得吗？

Should they be looking at other sectors?

他们要不要看看别的部门呢？

Should they be moving to another part of the country

要不要搬到本国的另一个地区呢？

where there's a shortage of babysitters?

那些保姆短缺的地方？

This kind of data can become routine.

这种数据可以成为惯例。

And this data can be used by investors.

此数据可被投资者使用。

So if there's a problem with a shortage of babysitters in some parts of the country

如果某些地区有保姆短缺问题

and the problem is nobody can afford the vetting and training,

问题是没有人可以负担得起审批和培训，

an investor can pay for it

投资者可以付钱

and the system will tithe back the enhanced earnings of the individuals

系统将从个人增加的收入中抽税

for maybe the next two years.

也就是可能在接下来的两年中这样子。

This is a world of atomized capitalism.

这是一个原子化的资本主义世界

So it's small trades by small people,

它是一小部分人做着小的交易，

but it's very informed, safe, convenient, low-overhead and immediate.

但它的非常可靠、 安全、 方便、 低开销和直接。

Some rough research suggests this could unlock

部分大致的研究表明这将开启

around 100 million pounds' worth a day of new economic activity

一天约 1 亿英镑的新的经济活动

in a country the size of the U.K.

在像英国这么大的国家。

Does that sound improbable to you?

你这听起来不可能吗？

That's what a lot of people said about turbo trading

曾有很多人对涡轮交易的看法就是这样

in financial exchanges 20 years ago.

也就是在20年前的金融交易所里。

Do not underestimate the transformative power

不要低估真正现代市场的

of truly modern markets.

这种变革的力量。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）