Where are all the aliens? | Stephen Webb

Prevodilac: Aleksandar Bošnjak Lektor: Ivana Korom

I saw a UFO once.

Video sam jednom NLO.

I was eight or nine,

Imao sam osam ili devet godina,

playing in the street with a friend who was a couple of years older,

igrao sam se na ulici sa drugom koji je bio par godina stariji,

and we saw a featureless silver disc hovering over the houses.

i videli smo običan srebrni disk kako lebdi iznad kuća.

We watched it for a few seconds,

Gledali smo ga par sekundi,

and then it shot away incredibly quickly.

a onda je nestao neverovatno brzo.

Even as a kid,

Čak i kao dete,

I got angry it was ignoring the laws of physics.

iznervirao sam se jer je ignorisao zakone fizike.

We ran inside to tell the grown-ups,

Utrčali smo unutra da kažemo odraslima,

and they were skeptical --

a oni su bili skeptični -

you'd be skeptical too, right?

vi biste isto bili skeptični, zar ne?

I got my own back a few years later:

Dobio sam svoje nekoliko godina kasnije,

one of those grown-ups told me,

jedan od onih odraslih mi je rekao:

"Last night I saw a flying saucer.

"Sinoć sam video leteći tanjir.

I was coming out of the pub after a few drinks."

Izlazio sam iz paba nakon par pića."

I stopped him there. I said, "I can explain that sighting."

Zaustavio sam ga. Rekao sam: "Mogu ti objasniti to viđenje."

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Psychologists have shown we can't trust our brains

Psiholozi su pokazali da ne možemo da verujemo našim mozgovima

to tell the truth.

da kažu istinu.

It's easy to fool ourselves.

Lako je da se prevarimo.

I saw something,

Video sam nešto,

but what's more likely --

ali šta je više verovatno -

that I saw an alien spacecraft,

da sam video vanzemaljski svemirski brod,

or that my brain misinterpreted the data my eyes were giving it?

ili da je mozak loše protumačio podatke koje su mu moje oči davale?

Ever since though I've wondered:

Još od tada se pitam:

Why don't we see flying saucers flitting around?

"Zašto ne vidimo leteće tanjire kako lete unaokolo?"

At the very least,

Na kraju krajeva,

why don't we see life out there in the cosmos?

zašto ne vidimo tragove života u kosmosu?

It's a puzzle,

To je zagonetka,

and I've discussed it with dozens of experts

a diskutovao sam sa desetinama eksperata

from different disciplines over the past three decades.

iz različitih disciplina protekle tri decenije.

And there's no consensus.

I nema kosenzusa.

Frank Drake began searching for alien signals back in 1960 --

Frenk Drejk je počeo potragu za vanzemaljskim signalima još 1960. -

so far, nothing.

do sada, ništa.

And with each passing year,

A sa svakom godinom koja prođe,

this nonobservation,

ovo neposmatranje,

this lack of evidence for any alien activity gets more puzzling

nemanje dokaza ikakve vanzemaljske aktivnosti postaje još više zbunjujuće

because we should see them, shouldn't we?

jer bi trebalo da ih vidimo, zar ne?

The universe is 13.8 billion years old,

Univerzum ima 13,8 milijardi godina,

give or take.

manje više.

If we represent the age of the universe by one year,

Ako predstavimo starost univerzuma u jednoj godini,

then our species came into being about 12 minutes before midnight,

onda se naša vrsta stvorila oko 12 minuta pre ponoći,

31st December.

31. decembra.

Western civilization has existed for a few seconds.

Zapadna civilizacija postoji tek par sekundi.

Extraterrestrial civilizations could have started in the summer months.

Vanzemaljske civilizacije su se mogle pokrenuti u letnjim mesecima.

Imagine a summer civilization

Zamislite letnju civilizaciju

developing a level of technology more advanced than ours,

koja razvija tehnologiju napredniju od naše,

but tech based on accepted physics though,

ali tehnologiju zasnovanu na fizičkim zakonima,

I'm not talking wormholes or warp drives -- whatever --

Ne govorim o crvotočini ili svetlosnim pogonima - bilo čemu -

just an extrapolation of the sort of tech that TED celebrates.

samo ekstrapolacija vrste tehnike koju TED slavi.

That civilization could program self-replicating probes

Ta civilizacija bi mogla da isprogramira samokopirajuće sonde,

to visit every planetary system in the galaxy.

da posete svaki planetarni sistem u galaksiji.

If they launched the first probes just after midnight one August day,

Da lansiraju prve sonde posle ponoći jednog avgustovskog dana,

then before breakfast same day,

pre doručka istog dana,

they could have colonized the galaxy.

bi oni mogli kolonizovati galaksiju.

Intergalactic colonization isn't much more difficult,

Intergalaktička kolonizacija nije mnogo teža,

it just takes longer.

samo duže traje.

A civilization from any one of millions of galaxies

Civilizacija iz bilo koje od miliona galaksija

could have colonized our galaxy.

je mogla kolonizovati našu.

Seems far-fetched?

Izgleda neverovatno?

Maybe it is,

Možda jeste,

but wouldn't aliens engage in some recognizable activity --

zar se ne bi vanzemaljci bavili nekom prepoznatljivom aktivnošću -

put worldlets around a star to capture free sunlight,

stavljanjem malih svetova oko zvezde da uhvate slobodnu sunčevu svetlost,

collaborate on a Wikipedia Galactica,

sarađivanjem na Vikipediji Galaktika,

or just shout out to the universe, "We're here"?

ili prosto da viknu svima: "Ovde smo"?

So where is everybody?

Pa gde su svi?

It's a puzzle because we do expect these civilizations to exist, don't we?

Zagonetka je jer mi očekujemo da ove civilizacije postoje, zar ne?

After all, there could be a trillion planets in the galaxy --

Uostalom, može postojati bilion planeta u galaksiji -

maybe more.

možda i više.

You don't need any special knowledge to consider this question,

Ne treba vam nikakvo specijalno znanje da porazmislite o ovom pitanju,

and I've explored it with lots of people over the years.

a ja sam istražio to sa dosta ljudi tokom godina.

And I've found they often frame their thinking

I ustanovio sam da oni često oblikuju svoje razmišljanje

in terms of the barriers that would need to be cleared

u smislu barijera koje bi se trebale probiti,

if a planet is to host a communicative civilization.

ako je planeta ta koja ugošćava komunikativnu civilizaciju.

And they usually identify four key barriers.

A oni uglavnom identifikuju četiri ključne barijere.

Habitability --

Habitabilnost -

that's the first barrier.

to je prva barijera.

We need a terrestrial planet in that just right "Goldilocks zone,"

Treba nam suvozemna planeta na onaj "idealni" način,

where water flows as a liquid.

u kom voda struji kao tečnost.

They're out there.

Oni su tamo.

In 2016, astronomers confirmed there's a planet in the habitable zone

2016. su astronomi potvrdili da postoji planeta u nastanjivoj zoni

of the closest star,

najbliže zvezde,

Proxima Centauri --

Proksima Kentauri -

so close that Breakthrough Starshot project plans to send probes there.

toliko blizu da Brejktru Staršot projekat planira da pošalje sonde tamo.

We'd become a starfaring species.

Postali bismo vrsta koja putuje svemirom.

But not all worlds are habitable.

Ali nisu sve planete nastanjive.

Some will be too close to a star and they'll fry,

Neke će biti preblizu sunca i spržiće se,

some will be too far away and they'll freeze.

neke će biti predaleko i zalediće se.

Abiogenesis --

Abiogeneza -

the creation of life from nonlife --

stvaranje života iz ne-života -

that's the second barrier.

to je druga barijera.

The basic building blocks of life aren't unique to Earth:

Osnovni elementi života nisu jedinstveni za Zemlju:

amino acids have been found in comets,

aminokiseline su pronađene u kometama,

complex organic molecules in interstellar dust clouds,

kompleksni organski molekuli u međuzvezdanim oblacima prašine,

water in exoplanetary systems.

voda u egzoplanetarnim sistemima.

The ingredients are there,

Sastojci su tamo,

we just don't know how they combine to create life,

samo ne znamo kako se kombinuju da bi se stvorio život,

and presumably there will be worlds on which life doesn't start.

i po svojoj prilici biće planeta na kojima život ne počinje.

The development of technological civilization is a third barrier.

Razvoj tehnološke civilizacije je treća barijera.

Some say we already share our planet with alien intelligences.

Neki kažu da mi već delimo planetu sa vanzemaljskim inteligencijama.

A 2011 study showed that elephants can cooperate to solve problems.

Studije iz 2011. su pokazale da slonovi mogu da sarađuju da bi rešili probleme.

A 2010 study showed

Studije iz 2010. su pokazale

that an octopus in captivity can recognize different humans.

da hobotnica u zatočeništvu može da prepozna različite ljude.

2017 studies show that ravens can plan for future events --

Studije iz 2017. pokazuju da gavranovi mogu da planiraju za buduće događaje -

wonderful, clever creatures --

čudesna, pametna stvorenja -

but they can't contemplate the Breakthrough Starshot project,

ali oni ne mogu da razmišljaju o Brejktru Staršot projektu,

and if we vanished today,

a ako mi nestanemo danas,

they wouldn't go on to implement Breakthrough Starshot --

oni ne bi nastavili sa izvršavanjem Brejktru Staršota -

why should they?

zašto bi?

Evolution doesn't have space travel as an end goal.

Evolucija nema putovanje kroz svemir kao kranji cilj.

There will be worlds where life doesn't give rise to advanced technology.

Biće planeta gde život ne dostiže do napredne tehnologije.

Communication across space -- that's a fourth barrier.

Komunikacija duž svemira - to je četvrta barijera.

Maybe advanced civilizations choose to explore inner space

Možda napredne civilizacije biraju da istražuju unutrašnji svemir

rather than outer space,

radije nego spoljašnji svemir,

or engineer at small distances rather than large.

ili izgrađuju na manjim razdaljinama više nego na većim.

Or maybe they just don't want to risk an encounter

Ili možda samo neće da rizikuju da se susretnu

with a potentially more advanced and hostile neighbor.

sa potencijalno naprednijim i neprijateljski nastrojenim susedom.

There'll be worlds where, for whatever reason,

Biće planeta gde, iz kog god razloga,

civilizations either stay silent or don't spend long trying to communicate.

civilizacije bivaju neme ili ne provode puno pokušavajući da komuniciraju.

As for the height of the barriers,

Što se tiče visine barijera,

your guess is as good as anyone's.

vaša pretpostavka je dobra kao i bilo čija.

In my experience,

Po mom iskustvu,

when people sit down and do the math,

kad ljudi sednu i izračunaju,

they typically conclude there are thousands of civilizations in the galaxy.

obično zaključe da ima hiljade civilizacija u galaksiji.

But then we're back to the puzzle: Where is everybody?

Ali onda se vraćamo na zagonetku: gde su svi?

By definition,

Po definiciji,

UFOs -- including the one I saw --

NLO-i - uključujući i onog kog sam ja video -

are unidentified.

su neidentifikovani.

We can't simply infer they're spacecraft.

Ne možemo zaključivati da je to svemirski brod.

You can still have some fun playing with the idea aliens are here.

Možete se malo zabaviti idejom da su vanzemaljci ovde.

Some say a summer civilization did colonize the galaxy

Neki kažu da je letnja civilizacija kolonizovala galaksiju

and seeded Earth with life ...

i posejala život na Zemlji...

others, that we're living in a cosmic wilderness preserve --

drugi, da živimo u kosmičkoj očuvanoj divljini -

a zoo.

u zoološkom vrtu.

Yet others --

Međutim drugi -

that we're living in a simulation.

da živimo u simulaciji.

Programmers just haven't revealed the aliens yet.

Programeri nisu otkrili vanzemaljce još uvek.

Most of my colleagues though argue that E.T. is out there,

Većina mojih kolega se prepire o tome da su vanzemaljci tamo negde,

we just need to keep looking,

samo treba da nastavimo potragu,

and this makes sense.

a ovo ima smisla.

Space is vast.

Svemir je ogroman.

Identifying a signal is hard,

Identifikovati signal je teško,

and we haven't been looking that long.

a ne tražimo toliko dugo.

Without doubt, we should spend more on the search.

Bez sumnje, treba da uložimo više na potragu.

It's about understanding our place in the universe.

Radi se o razumevanju našeg mesta u univerzumu.

It's too important a question to ignore.

Previše je važno pitanje da bi se ignorisalo.

But there's an obvious answer:

Ali ima očiglednog odgovora:

we're alone.

sami smo.

It's just us.

Samo smo mi tu.

There could be a trillion planets in the galaxy.

Može postojati bilion planeta u galaksiji.

Is it plausible we're the only creatures capable of contemplating this question?

Da li je moguće da smo jedina stvorenja sposobna da razmišljaju o ovom pitanju?

Well, yes, because in this context,

Pa, da, jer u ovom kontekstu,

we don't know whether a trillion is a big number.

ne znamo da li je bilion velik broj.

In 2000, Peter Ward and Don Brownlee proposed the Rare Earth idea.

Piter Vord i Don Braunli su 2000. predložili ideju "retke Zemlje".

Remember those four barriers

Sećate se one četiri barijere

that people use to estimate the number of civilizations?

koje ljudi koriste da odrede broj civilizacija?

Ward and Brownlee said there might be more.

Vord i Braunli su rekli da ih može biti više.

Let's look at one possible barrier.

Pogledajmo jednu moguću barijeru.

It's a recent suggestion by David Waltham,

To je skorašnji predlog Dejvida Volthema,

a geophysicist.

geofizičara.

This is my very simplified version

Ovo je veoma pojednostavljena verzija

of Dave's much more sophisticated argument.

Dejvidovog mnogo sofisticiranijeg argumenta.

We are able to be here now

Mi smo u mogćnosti da budemo ovde sada

because Earth's previous inhabitants enjoyed

jer su prethodni Zemljini stanovnici uživali

four billion years of good weather --

u 4 milijarde godina lepog vremena -

ups and downs but more or less clement.

usponi i padovi ali manje više blago.

But long-term climate stability is strange,

Ali dugoročna klimatska stabilnost je čudna,

if only because astronomical influences

zbog toga što astronomski uticaji

can push a planet towards freezing or frying.

mogu pogurati planetu ka zamrzavanju ili prženju.

There's a hint our moon has helped,

Ima nagoveštaja da je Mesec pomogao,

and that's interesting

a to je interesantno,

because the prevailing theory is

jer je preovlađujuća teorija

that the moon came into being when Theia,

da se mesec pojavio kad se Tea,

a body the size of Mars,

telo veličine Marsa,

crashed into a newly formed Earth.

sudarila sa novoformiranom Zemljom.

The outcome of that crash could have been a quite different Earth-Moon system.

Ishod tog sudara mogao je da bude dosta drugačiji za sistem Zemlje i Meseca.

We ended up with a large moon

Završili smo sa velikim mesecom,

and that permitted Earth to have both a stable axial tilt

a to je dopustilo Zemlji da ima oba, stabilni nagib ose

and a slow rotation rate.

i sporu brzinu rotacije.

Both factors influence climate

Oba faktora utiču na klimu,

and the suggestion is that they've helped moderate climate change.

a predlog je da su ti faktori pomogli u ublažavanju klimatskih promena.

Great for us, right?

Odlično za nas, zar ne?

But Waltham showed that if the moon were just a few miles bigger,

Ali Volthem je pokazao da, u slučaju da je mesec veći,

things would be different.

stvari bi bile drugačije.

Earth's spin axis would now wander chaotically.

Zemljina rotaciona osa bi onda lutala haotično.

There'd be episodes of rapid climate change --

Bilo bi epizoda brzih klimatskih promena -

not good for complex life.

loše za kompleksni život.

The moon is just the right size:

Mesec je baš prave veličine:

big but not too big.

velik, ali ne prevelik.

A "Goldilocks" moon around a "Goldilocks" planet --

"Idealni" Mesec oko "idealne" planete -

a barrier perhaps.

možda je to barijera.

You can imagine more barriers.

Možete zamisliti još barijera.

For instance,

Na primer,

simple cells came into being billions of years ago ...

jednoćelijski organizmi su se ostvarili pre milijardu godina...

but perhaps the development of complex life

ali možda je za razvoj kompleksnog života

needed a series of unlikely events.

potreban niz neizvesnih događaja.

Once life on Earth had access to multicellularity

Čim je život na Zemlji pristupio višećelijskim organizmima,

and sophisticated genetic structures,

sofisticiranim genetskim strukturama,

and sex,

i seksu,

new opportunities opened up:

nove mogućnosti su se otvorile:

animals became possible.

životinje su postale moguće.

But maybe it's the fate of many planets

Ali možda je to sudbina mnogih planeta,

for life to settle at the level of simple cells.

da se život nastani na stepenu jednoćelijskih organizama.

Purely for the purposes of illustration,

Čisto radi ilustracije,

let me suggest four more barriers to add to the four

dozovlite mi da predložim četiri dodatne barijere na one četiri,

that people said blocked the path to communicative civilization.

za koje ljudi kažu da blokiraju put ka komunikativnoj civilizaciji.

Again, purely for the purposes of illustration,

Ponovo, čisto radi ilustracije,

pretpostavimo šanse jedan naprema hiljadu za prevazilaženje svake od barijera.

suppose there's a one-in-a-thousand chance of making it across each of the barriers.

Of course there might be different ways of navigating the barriers,

Naravno, možda postoje drugačiji načini upravljanja barijerama,

and some chances will be better than one in a thousand.

i neke će šanse biti bolje od jedan naprema hiljadu.

Equally, there might be more barriers

Podjednako, može biti još barijera,

and some chances might be one in a million.

a neke su šanse možda i jedan u milion.

Let's just see what happens in this picture.

Da vidimo šta se dešava u ovom slučaju.

If the galaxy contains a trillion planets,

Ako galaksija sadrži bilion planeta,

how many will host a civilization capable of contemplating like us

koliko njih će ugostiti civilizaciju sposobnu da razmišlja poput nas,

projects such as Breakthrough Starshot?

projekte kao što je Brejktru Staršot?

Habitability --

Habitabilnost -

right sort of planet around the right sort of star --

prava vrsta planete oko prave vrste zvezde -

the trillion becomes a billion.

bilion postaje milijarda.

Stability --

Stabilnost -

a climate that stays benign for eons --

klima koja ostaje benigna eonima -

the billion becomes a million.

milijarda postaje milion.

Life must start --

Život mora početi -

the million becomes a thousand.

milion postaje hiljadu.

Complex life forms must arise --

Kompleksni oblici života moraju izniknuti -

the thousand becomes one.

hiljadu postaje jedan.

Sophisticated tool use must develop --

Prefinjeno korišćenje alatki se mora razviti -

that's one planet in a thousand galaxies.

to je jedna planeta u hiljadu galaksija.

To understand the universe,

Da bi razumeli univerzum,

they'll have to develop the techniques of science and mathematics --

moraće da razviju tehnike nauke i matematike -

that's one planet in a million galaxies.

to je jedna planeta u milion galaksija.

To reach the stars, they'll have to be social creatures,

Da bi doprli do zvezda, moraće da budu socijalna bića,

capable of discussing abstract concepts with each other

u stanju da diskutuju o apstraktnim konceptima među sobom

using complex grammar --

koristeći kompleksnu gramatiku -

one planet in a billion galaxies.

jedna planeta u milijardu galaksija.

And they have to avoid disaster --

I moraju da izbegavaju nepogode -

not just self-inflicted but from the skies, too.

ne samo koje su sami sebi naneli, nego i one sa neba takođe.

That planet around Proxima Centauri,

Ona planeta oko Proksima Kentauri,

last year it got blasted by a flare.

prošle godine ju je bljesak razneo.

One planet in a trillion galaxies,

Jedna planeta u bilion galaksija,

just as in the visible universe.

baš kao u vidljivom univerzumu.

I think we're alone.

Ja mislim da smo sami.

Those colleagues of mine who agree we're alone

Te moje kolege koje se slažu da smo sami,

often see a barrier ahead --

često vide barijeru unapred -

bioterror,

bioteror,

global warming, war.

globalno zagrevanje, rat.

A universe that's silent

Univerzum koji je nem,

because technology itself forms the barrier

jer sama tehnologija formira barijeru

to the development of a truly advanced civilization.

razvitku zaista napredne civilizacije.

Depressing, right?

Obeshrabrujuće, zar ne?

I'm arguing the exact opposite.

Ja argumentujem potpuno suprotno.

I grew up watching "Star Trek" and "Forbidden Planet,"

Odrastao sam gledajući "Star Trek" i "Zabranjenu planetu",

and I saw a UFO once,

i video sam NLO jednom,

so this idea of cosmic loneliness I certainly find slightly wistful.

stoga ideju kosmičke usamljenosti smatram pomalo sumornom.

But for me,

Ali za mene,

the silence of the universe is shouting,

tišina univerzuma viče:

"We're the creatures who got lucky."

"Mi smo bića kojim se posrećilo."

All barriers are behind us.

Sve barijere su iza nas.

We're the only species that's cleared them --

Jedina smo vrsta koja ih je probila -

the only species capable of determining its own destiny.

jedina vrsta sposobna da odredi sopstvenu sudbinu.

And if we learn to appreciate how special our planet is,

I ako naučimo da cenimo koliko je posebna naša planeta,

how important it is to look after our home

koliko je važno da pazimo našu kuću,

and to find others,

i da nađemo ostale,

how incredibly fortunate we all are simply to be aware of the universe,

koliki smo svi mi neverovatni srećnici da prosto budemo svesni univerzuma,

humanity might survive for a while.

čovečanstvo možda preživi još neko vreme.

And all those amazing things

I sve te zapanjujuće stvari

we dreamed aliens might have done in the past,

koje smo sanjali da su vanzemaljci možda uradili u prošlosti,

that could be our future.

bi mogle biti naša budućnost.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)