Where are all the aliens? | Stephen Webb

4,499,556 views ใƒป 2018-08-16

TED


ไธ‹ใฎ่‹ฑ่ชžๅญ—ๅน•ใ‚’ใƒ€ใƒ–ใƒซใ‚ฏใƒชใƒƒใ‚ฏใ™ใ‚‹ใจๅ‹•็”ปใ‚’ๅ†็”Ÿใงใใพใ™ใ€‚

็ฟป่จณ: Yumi Urushihara ๆ กๆญฃ: Hiroshi Uchiyama
00:13
I saw a UFO once.
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็งใฏไธ€ๅบฆUFOใ‚’่ฆ‹ใŸใ“ใจใŒใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ™
00:15
I was eight or nine,
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๏ผ˜ๆญณใ‹๏ผ™ๆญณใฎ้ ƒใงใ—ใŸ
00:17
playing in the street with a friend who was a couple of years older,
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ๅฐ‘ใ—ๅนดไธŠใฎๅ‹้”ใจ ้“ใง้Šใ‚“ใงใ„ใ‚‹ใจใ“ใ‚ใงใ—ใŸ
00:20
and we saw a featureless silver disc hovering over the houses.
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็‰นๅพดใฎใชใ„้Š€่‰ฒใฎๅ††็›คใŒ ไฝๅฎ…ใฎไธŠใซๆตฎใ‹ใ‚“ใงใ„ใพใ—ใŸ
00:25
We watched it for a few seconds,
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็ง้”ใŒๆ•ฐ็ง’่ฆ‹ใคใ‚ใŸๅพŒ
00:27
and then it shot away incredibly quickly.
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ใณใฃใใ‚Šใ™ใ‚‹ใปใฉใฎ้€Ÿใ•ใง ใฉใ“ใ‹ใซ่กŒใฃใฆใ—ใพใ„ใพใ—ใŸ
00:30
Even as a kid,
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ๅญไพ›ใชใŒใ‚‰ใซ
00:31
I got angry it was ignoring the laws of physics.
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็งใฏ ใใฎ็‰ฉไฝ“ใŒ็‰ฉ็†ใฎๆณ•ๅ‰‡ใ‚’ ็„ก่ฆ–ใ—ใฆใ„ใ‚‹ใจ่…นใ‚’็ซ‹ใฆใพใ—ใŸ
00:35
We ran inside to tell the grown-ups,
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็ง้”ใฏ ๅฎถใฎไธญใซ่ตฐใ‚Š ๅคงไบบใซไผใˆใพใ—ใŸ
00:37
and they were skeptical --
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ใ—ใ‹ใ— ไฟกใ˜ใฆใ‚‚ใ‚‰ใˆใพใ›ใ‚“ใงใ—ใŸ
00:39
you'd be skeptical too, right?
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็š†ใ•ใ‚“ใ ใฃใฆไฟกใ˜ใพใ›ใ‚“ใ‚ˆใญ๏ผŸ
00:42
I got my own back a few years later:
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ๆ•ฐๅนดๅพŒใซ ใ‚„ใ‚Š่ฟ”ใ—ใพใ—ใŸ
00:43
one of those grown-ups told me,
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ใ‚ใ‚‹ๅคงไบบใŒ็งใซ่จ€ใฃใŸใฎใงใ™
00:45
"Last night I saw a flying saucer.
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ใ€Œๆ˜จๆ™ฉ ็ฉบ้ฃ›ใถๅ††็›คใ‚’่ฆ‹ใŸใ‚“ใ 
00:47
I was coming out of the pub after a few drinks."
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ใƒ‘ใƒ–ใงไฝ•ๆฏใ‹้ฃฒใ‚“ใง ๅค–ใซๅ‡บใŸใจใ“ใ‚ใ ใฃใŸใ€
00:49
I stopped him there. I said, "I can explain that sighting."
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็งใฏๅฝผใฎ่ฉฑใ‚’้ฎใ‚Š่จ€ใ„ใพใ—ใŸ ใ€Œใใฎ็›ฎๆ’ƒ่ซ‡ใ‚’่งฃ่ชฌใ—ใฆใฟใ›ใพใ—ใ‚‡ใ†ใ€
00:52
(Laughter)
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๏ผˆ็ฌ‘๏ผ‰
00:53
Psychologists have shown we can't trust our brains
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ๅฟƒ็†ๅญฆ่€…ใฏ ็ง้”ใฎ่„ณใŒ ็œŸๅฎŸใ‚’่ชžใ‚‹ใจใฏ้™ใ‚‰ใชใ„ใจ
00:56
to tell the truth.
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่จผๆ˜Žใ—ใฆใ„ใพใ™
00:57
It's easy to fool ourselves.
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่‡ชๅˆ†่‡ช่บซใ‚’ใ ใพใ™ใฎใฏ ใŸใ‚„ใ™ใ„ใ“ใจใงใ™
00:59
I saw something,
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ใ‚ใ‚‹็‰ฉไฝ“ใ‚’่ฆ‹ใŸ
01:01
but what's more likely --
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ใใ‚Œใฏใชใ‚“ใจใ„ใ†ใ‹โ€•
01:02
that I saw an alien spacecraft,
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ๅœฐ็ƒๅค–ใฎๅฎ‡ๅฎ™่ˆนใ‚’่ฆ‹ใŸใฎใ‹
01:04
or that my brain misinterpreted the data my eyes were giving it?
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ใ‚ใ‚‹ใ„ใฏ ็›ฎใง่ฆ‹ใŸๆƒ…ๅ ฑใ‚’ ่„ณใŒ่ชคใฃใฆ่งฃ้‡ˆใ—ใŸใฎใ‹๏ผŸ
01:10
Ever since though I've wondered:
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ใ—ใ‹ใ—ใ‚ใ‚Œไปฅๆฅใšใฃใจ็–‘ๅ•ใงใ—ใŸ
01:11
Why don't we see flying saucers flitting around?
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็ฉบ้ฃ›ใถๅ††็›คใŒ้ฃ›ใณไบคใ†ใฎใ‚’ ็งใŸใกใŒ่ฆ‹ใ‹ใ‘ใชใ„ใฎใฏใชใœใ‹๏ผŸ
01:14
At the very least,
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ๅฐ‘ใชใใจใ‚‚
01:16
why don't we see life out there in the cosmos?
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ใชใœๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใง ็”Ÿๅ‘ฝไฝ“ใ‚’ ่ฆ‹ใคใ‘ใ‚‰ใ‚Œใฆใ„ใชใ„ใฎใ‹๏ผŸ
01:18
It's a puzzle,
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ใ“ใ‚Œใฏ้›ฃ้กŒใงใ™
01:20
and I've discussed it with dozens of experts
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30ๅนดๅ‰ใ‹ใ‚‰ ๆง˜ใ€…ใชๅˆ†้‡Žใฎ
01:22
from different disciplines over the past three decades.
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ไฝ•ๅไบบใ‚‚ใฎๅฐ‚้–€ๅฎถใจ ่ญฐ่ซ–ใ—ใฆใใพใ—ใŸ
01:25
And there's no consensus.
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ใ—ใ‹ใ—ๆ„่ฆ‹ใฏใพใจใพใ‚Šใพใ›ใ‚“
01:27
Frank Drake began searching for alien signals back in 1960 --
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1960ๅนดใ‹ใ‚‰ ใƒ•ใƒฉใƒณใ‚ฏใƒปใƒ‰ใƒฌใ‚คใ‚ฏใฏ ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ไบบใ‹ใ‚‰ใฎไฟกๅทใ‚’ๆŽขใ—ๅง‹ใ‚ใพใ—ใŸใŒ
01:32
so far, nothing.
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ไปŠใฎใจใ“ใ‚ ๆˆๆžœใฏใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ›ใ‚“
01:34
And with each passing year,
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ๆฏŽๅนดๆฏŽๅนด
01:35
this nonobservation,
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ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ไบบใฎๆดปๅ‹•ใฏ่ฆณๆธฌใ•ใ‚Œใš
01:37
this lack of evidence for any alien activity gets more puzzling
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่จผๆ‹ ใŒๅ‡บใฆใ“ใชใ„ใ“ใจใง ่ฌŽใŒๆ›ดใซๆทฑใพใฃใฆใ„ใพใ™
01:42
because we should see them, shouldn't we?
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่ฆ‹ใคใ‹ใฃใฆ็„ถใ‚‹ในใใ ใ‹ใ‚‰ใงใ™ ใใ†ใงใ™ใ‚ˆใญ๏ผŸ
01:47
The universe is 13.8 billion years old,
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ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใฏใŠใ‚ˆใ 138ๅ„„ๅนดๅ‰ใซ
01:50
give or take.
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่ช•็”Ÿใ—ใพใ—ใŸ
01:52
If we represent the age of the universe by one year,
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ใ‚‚ใ—ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใฎใ“ใ‚Œใพใงใ‚’ ๏ผ‘ๅนดใจ่กจใ™ใจใ—ใŸใ‚‰
01:55
then our species came into being about 12 minutes before midnight,
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ไบบ้กžใฏ12ๆœˆ31ๆ—ฅใฎ ็œŸๅคœไธญ12ๅˆ†ๅ‰ใซ
02:00
31st December.
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่ช•็”Ÿใ—ใพใ™
02:02
Western civilization has existed for a few seconds.
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่ฅฟๆด‹ๆ–‡ๆ˜Žใฎๅญ˜ๅœจใฏๆ•ฐ็ง’ใฎใ“ใจใงใ™
02:05
Extraterrestrial civilizations could have started in the summer months.
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ๅœฐ็ƒๅค–ใฎๆ–‡ๆ˜Žใฏ ใใฎๅนดใฎๅคใฎ้–“ใซ ๅง‹ใพใฃใฆใ„ใŸใฎใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
02:10
Imagine a summer civilization
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ๆƒณๅƒใ—ใฆใฟใฆไธ‹ใ•ใ„ ๅคใซๅง‹ใพใฃใŸๆ–‡ๆ˜ŽใŒ
02:13
developing a level of technology more advanced than ours,
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็ง้”ใ‚ˆใ‚Šใ‚‚ใšใฃใจๅ…ˆ้€ฒใฎ ๆŠ€่ก“ใ‚’้–‹็™บใ—ใฆใ„ใฆ
02:17
but tech based on accepted physics though,
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ใใ‚Œใฏไธ€่ˆฌ็š„ใช็‰ฉ็†ๅญฆใซ ๅŸบใ„ใŸใ‚‚ใฎใ ใจใ—ใพใ™
02:19
I'm not talking wormholes or warp drives -- whatever --
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ใƒฏใƒผใƒ ใƒ›ใƒผใƒซใ‚„ ใƒฏใƒผใƒ—ใƒ‰ใƒฉใ‚คใƒ–็ญ‰ใงใฏใชใ
02:23
just an extrapolation of the sort of tech that TED celebrates.
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TEDใŒ็งฐ่ณ›ใ™ใ‚‹ใ‚ˆใ†ใชๆŠ€่ก“ใ‹ใ‚‰ ๆ›ดใซ็™บๅฑ•ใ—ใŸใ‚‚ใฎใงใ™
02:28
That civilization could program self-replicating probes
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ใใฎๆ–‡ๆ˜Žใฏ ใ“ใฎ้Š€ๆฒณ็ณปใซใ‚ใ‚‹ ๅ…จใฆใฎๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿ็ณปใ‚’่จชใ‚Œใ‚‹ใŸใ‚
02:32
to visit every planetary system in the galaxy.
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่‡ชๅทฑ่ค‡่ฃฝใงใใ‚‹ๆŽขๆŸปๆฉŸใฎ ใƒ—ใƒญใ‚ฐใƒฉใƒ ใŒๅฏ่ƒฝใ ใจใ—ใพใ™
02:35
If they launched the first probes just after midnight one August day,
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ใ‚‚ใ—ๅฝผใ‚‰ใŒ๏ผ˜ๆœˆใฎใ‚ใ‚‹ๆ—ฅ ๅคœ๏ผๆ™‚้ŽใŽ ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ๆŽขๆŸปๆฉŸใ‚’ๆ‰“ใกไธŠใ’ใŸใ‚‰
02:41
then before breakfast same day,
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ๅŒใ˜ๆ—ฅใฎๆœ้ฃŸใฎๆ™‚้–“ๅ‰ใซ
02:43
they could have colonized the galaxy.
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้Š€ๆฒณ็ณปใ‚’ๆ”ฏ้…ใงใใŸใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
02:46
Intergalactic colonization isn't much more difficult,
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ไป–ใฎ้Š€ๆฒณใฎๆ”ฏ้…ใฏ ้›ฃๅบฆใŒใใ‚Œใปใฉๅข—ใ™ใ‚ใ‘ใงใฏใชใ
02:49
it just takes longer.
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ใ‚ˆใ‚Šๆ™‚้–“ใŒใ‹ใ‹ใ‚‹ใ ใ‘ใงใ™
02:51
A civilization from any one of millions of galaxies
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ไฝ•็™พไธ‡ใ‚‚ๅญ˜ๅœจใ™ใ‚‹้Š€ๆฒณใ‹ใ‚‰ๆฅใŸ ๏ผ‘ใคใฎๆ–‡ๆ˜ŽใŒ
02:54
could have colonized our galaxy.
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็ง้”ใฎ้Š€ๆฒณ็ณปใ‚’ ๆ”ฏ้…ใงใใฆใ„ใŸใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
02:56
Seems far-fetched?
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็ชๆ‹ๅญใ‚‚ใชใ„ใจๆ€ใ„ใพใ™ใ‹๏ผŸ
02:58
Maybe it is,
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ใใ†ใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
02:59
but wouldn't aliens engage in some recognizable activity --
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ใ—ใ‹ใ— ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ไบบใฏใชใœ ็›ฎใซ่ฆ‹ใˆใ‚‹่กŒๅ‹•ใ‚’ใจใ‚‰ใชใ„ใฎใ‹โ€•
03:05
put worldlets around a star to capture free sunlight,
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ๅคช้™ฝๅ…‰ใ‚’้ ‚ๆˆดใ™ใ‚‹ใŸใ‚ใซ ๆ˜Ÿใฎๅ‘จใ‚Šใซ ๅฐๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใ‚’้…็ฝฎใ—ใŸใ‚Š
03:09
collaborate on a Wikipedia Galactica,
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้Š€ๆฒณใ‚ฆใ‚ฃใ‚ญใƒšใƒ‡ใ‚ฃใ‚ขใ‚’ๅ…ฑๅŒๅˆถไฝœใ—ใŸใ‚Š
03:12
or just shout out to the universe, "We're here"?
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ใ‚‚ใ—ใใฏ ใ€Œใ“ใ“ใซใ„ใ‚‹ใ‚ˆ๏ผใ€ใจๅซใ‚“ใ ใ‚Š
03:16
So where is everybody?
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ๅฝผใ‚‰ใฏใฉใ“ใซใ„ใ‚‹ใฎใ‹๏ผŸ
03:18
It's a puzzle because we do expect these civilizations to exist, don't we?
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ใใฎใ‚ˆใ†ใชๆ–‡ๆ˜ŽใŒๅญ˜ๅœจใ™ใ‚‹ใจไฟกใ˜ใฆใ„ใ‚‹ใ‹ใ‚‰ ่ฌŽใชใฎใงใ™ ใใ†ใงใ™ใ‚ˆใญ๏ผŸ
03:24
After all, there could be a trillion planets in the galaxy --
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้Š€ๆฒณ็ณปใซใฏ๏ผ‘ๅ…†ใ‚‚ใฎๆƒ‘ๆ˜ŸใŒ ๅญ˜ๅœจใ™ใ‚‹ๅฏ่ƒฝๆ€งใŒใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ™โ€•
03:27
maybe more.
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ใ‚‚ใฃใจๅคšใ„ใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใชใ„
03:29
You don't need any special knowledge to consider this question,
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ใ“ใฎ็–‘ๅ•ใซใคใ„ใฆ่€ƒใˆใ‚‹ๆ™‚ ็‰นๅˆฅใช็Ÿฅ่ญ˜ใฏๅฟ…่ฆใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ›ใ‚“
03:34
and I've explored it with lots of people over the years.
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ใŸใใ•ใ‚“ใฎไบบใจไธ€็ท’ใซ ไฝ•ๅนดใ‚‚ๆŽขๆฑ‚ใ‚’็ถšใ‘ใฆใใพใ—ใŸ
03:37
And I've found they often frame their thinking
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ใใ“ใง็งใŒๆฐ—ใฅใ„ใŸใฎใฏ ๅฝผใ‚‰ใฏใ—ใฐใ—ใฐ
03:40
in terms of the barriers that would need to be cleared
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ๆƒ‘ๆ˜ŸใŒใ‚ณใƒŸใƒฅใƒ‹ใ‚ฑใƒผใ‚ทใƒงใƒณๅฏ่ƒฝใช ๆ–‡ๆ˜Žใ‚’ๆŒใคใซใฏ
03:44
if a planet is to host a communicative civilization.
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้šœๅฃใ‚’ใ„ใใคใ‹ไน—ใ‚Š่ถŠใˆใชใ‘ใ‚Œใฐใชใ‚‰ใชใ„ ใจใ„ใ†ๆ€่€ƒใ‚’็ต„ใฟ็ซ‹ใฆใฆใ„ใ‚‹ใ“ใจใงใ™
03:49
And they usually identify four key barriers.
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ๅฝผใ‚‰ใฎ่€ƒใˆใงใฏ ้€šๅธธ ๏ผ”ใคใฎๅฃใŒใ‚ใ‚‹ใจใ•ใ‚Œใพใ™
03:52
Habitability --
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ๅฑ…ไฝๅฏ่ƒฝๆ€งโ€•
03:54
that's the first barrier.
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ใใ‚ŒใŒๆœ€ๅˆใฎๅฃใงใ™
03:55
We need a terrestrial planet in that just right "Goldilocks zone,"
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ใ€Œใ‚ดใƒซใƒ‡ใ‚ฃใƒญใƒƒใ‚ฏใ‚นใ‚พใƒผใƒณ๏ผˆ็”Ÿๅ‘ฝๅฑ…ไฝๅฏ่ƒฝ้ ˜ๅŸŸ๏ผ‰ใ€ ใซใ‚ใ‚‹ๅœฐ็ƒๅž‹ๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใงใชใ‘ใ‚Œใฐใชใ‚Šใพใ›ใ‚“
04:00
where water flows as a liquid.
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ๆฐดใŒๆถฒไฝ“ใจใ—ใฆๅญ˜ๅœจใ™ใ‚‹ๆ˜Ÿใงใ™
04:03
They're out there.
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ๅฎŸ้š›ใซ ใใ‚Œใฏๅญ˜ๅœจใ—ใพใ™
04:04
In 2016, astronomers confirmed there's a planet in the habitable zone
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2016ๅนด ๅคฉๆ–‡ๅญฆ่€…ใฏใใฎๅฑ…ไฝๅฏ่ƒฝ้ ˜ๅŸŸๅ†…ใง ใ‚ใ‚‹ๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใ‚’่ฆ‹ใคใ‘ใพใ—ใŸ
04:09
of the closest star,
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ใ—ใ‹ใ‚‚ๅœฐ็ƒใซๆœ€ใ‚‚่ฟ‘ใ„ๆ’ๆ˜Ÿใงใ‚ใ‚‹
04:10
Proxima Centauri --
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ใƒ—ใƒญใ‚ญใ‚ทใƒžใƒปใ‚ฑใƒณใ‚ฟใ‚ฆใƒชใ‚’ๅ›žใ‚‹ๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใงใ™
04:12
so close that Breakthrough Starshot project plans to send probes there.
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ใƒ–ใƒฌใƒผใ‚ฏใ‚นใƒซใƒผใƒปใ‚นใ‚ฟใƒผใ‚ทใƒงใƒƒใƒˆ่จˆ็”ปใงใฏ ใ“ใฎๆœ€ใ‚‚่ฟ‘ใ„ๆ’ๆ˜ŸใซๆŽขๆŸปๆฉŸใŒ้€ใ‚‰ใ‚Œใพใ™
04:17
We'd become a starfaring species.
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็ง้”ใฏ ๆ˜Ÿใฎ้–“ใ‚’็งปๅ‹•ใ™ใ‚‹็”Ÿ็‰ฉใซ ใชใ‚‹ใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
04:21
But not all worlds are habitable.
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ใ—ใ‹ใ—ๅฑ…ไฝๅฏ่ƒฝใงใฏใชใ„ๆ‰€ใ‚‚ใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ™
04:23
Some will be too close to a star and they'll fry,
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ๆ’ๆ˜Ÿใซ่ฟ‘ใฅใใ™ใŽใ‚‹ใจ ็„ผใ‹ใ‚Œใฆใ—ใพใ„ใพใ™
04:25
some will be too far away and they'll freeze.
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ๆ’ๆ˜Ÿใ‹ใ‚‰้ ใ–ใ‹ใ‚Šใ™ใŽใ‚‹ใจ ๅ‡ใ‚Šไป˜ใ„ใฆใ—ใพใ„ใพใ™
04:28
Abiogenesis --
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่‡ช็„ถ็™บ็”Ÿ่ชฌโ€•
04:30
the creation of life from nonlife --
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็„ก็”Ÿๅ‘ฝใ‹ใ‚‰็”Ÿๅ‘ฝใŒ็”Ÿใพใ‚Œใ‚‹ใ“ใจโ€•
04:31
that's the second barrier.
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ใใ‚ŒใŒ๏ผ’ใค็›ฎใฎๅฃใงใ™
04:34
The basic building blocks of life aren't unique to Earth:
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็”Ÿๅ‘ฝใ‚’ๆง‹็ฏ‰ใ™ใ‚‹ๅŸบ็คŽ็š„ใช็‰ฉ่ณชใฏ ๅœฐ็ƒ็‰นๆœ‰ใฎใ‚‚ใฎใงใฏใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ›ใ‚“
04:37
amino acids have been found in comets,
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ๅฝ—ๆ˜Ÿใงใฏใ‚ขใƒŸใƒŽ้…ธใŒ
04:40
complex organic molecules in interstellar dust clouds,
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ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใซๆผ‚ใ†ๅกต้›ฒใงใฏ ่ค‡้›‘ใชๆœ‰ๆฉŸๅˆ†ๅญใŒ
04:43
water in exoplanetary systems.
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็ณปๅค–ๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿ็ณปใงใฏ ๆฐดใŒ ่ฆ‹ใคใ‹ใฃใฆใ„ใพใ™
04:47
The ingredients are there,
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ๆๆ–™ใฏๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใซใ‚ใ‚‹ใฎใงใ™
04:48
we just don't know how they combine to create life,
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ใฉใฎใ‚ˆใ†ใซ็ต„ใฟๅˆใ‚ใ•ใ‚‹ใจ ็”Ÿๅ‘ฝใŒ่ช•็”Ÿใ™ใ‚‹ใฎใ‹็Ÿฅใ‚‰ใชใ„ใ ใ‘ใงใ™
04:51
and presumably there will be worlds on which life doesn't start.
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็”Ÿๅ‘ฝใŒ็”Ÿใพใ‚Œใชใ„ไธ–็•Œใ‚‚ ใŠใใ‚‰ใๅญ˜ๅœจใ™ใ‚‹ใงใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
04:55
The development of technological civilization is a third barrier.
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ๆŠ€่ก“้ขใงใฎๆ–‡ๆ˜Žใฎ็™บๅฑ•ใŒ ๏ผ“ใค็›ฎใฎ้šœๅฃใงใ™
05:00
Some say we already share our planet with alien intelligences.
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ใ“ใฎๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใ‚’ ็ง้”ใฏๅœฐ็ƒๅค–ใฎ็Ÿฅ็š„็”Ÿๅ‘ฝไฝ“ใจ ๆ—ขใซๅ…ฑๆœ‰ใ—ใฆใ„ใ‚‹ใจ่จ€ใ†ไบบใ‚‚ใ„ใพใ™
05:05
A 2011 study showed that elephants can cooperate to solve problems.
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2011ๅนดใฎ็ ”็ฉถใงใฏ ใ‚พใ‚ฆใŒ่ชฒ้กŒ่งฃๆฑบใฎใŸใ‚ ๅ”ๅŠ›ใ™ใ‚‹ใ“ใจใŒๅฏ่ƒฝใจๅˆ†ใ‹ใ‚Šใพใ—ใŸ
05:10
A 2010 study showed
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2010ๅนดใฎ็ ”็ฉถใงใฏ
05:12
that an octopus in captivity can recognize different humans.
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ๆ•็ฒใ•ใ‚ŒใŸใ‚ฟใ‚ณใŒ่ค‡ๆ•ฐใฎไบบ้–“ใ‚’ ่ญ˜ๅˆฅใงใใ‚‹ใจๅˆ†ใ‹ใ‚Šใพใ—ใŸ
05:17
2017 studies show that ravens can plan for future events --
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2017ๅนดใซใฏ ๅคงใ‚ฌใƒฉใ‚นใŒไบˆๅฎšใ‚’ไบ‹ๅ‰ใซ ่จˆ็”ปๅฏ่ƒฝใ ใจใ„ใ†็ ”็ฉถใŒ็คบใ•ใ‚Œใพใ—ใŸโ€•
05:21
wonderful, clever creatures --
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็ด ๆ™ดใ‚‰ใ—ใ ่ณขใ„็”Ÿใ็‰ฉใงใ™โ€•
05:24
but they can't contemplate the Breakthrough Starshot project,
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ใ—ใ‹ใ—ใƒ–ใƒฌใƒผใ‚ฏใ‚นใƒซใƒผใƒปใ‚นใ‚ฟใƒผใ‚ทใƒงใƒƒใƒˆ่จˆ็”ปใ‚’ ็ทดใ‚‹ใ“ใจใฏใงใใพใ›ใ‚“
05:27
and if we vanished today,
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ใ‚‚ใ—ไปŠๆ—ฅ ไบบ้กžใŒๆถˆๆป…ใ—ใŸใชใ‚‰
05:29
they wouldn't go on to implement Breakthrough Starshot --
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ใƒ–ใƒฌใƒผใ‚ฏใ‚นใƒซใƒผใƒปใ‚นใ‚ฟใƒผใ‚ทใƒงใƒƒใƒˆ่จˆ็”ปใ‚’ ๅผ•ใ็ถ™ใใ“ใจใฏใชใ„ใงใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
05:32
why should they?
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ใใ‚“ใชใ“ใจใ™ใ‚‹ๅฟ…่ฆใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ™ใ‹๏ผŸ
05:33
Evolution doesn't have space travel as an end goal.
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็”Ÿๅ‘ฝใฎ้€ฒๅŒ–ใฎๆœ€็ต‚็›ฎ็š„ใฏ ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ๆ—…่กŒใงใฏใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ›ใ‚“
05:37
There will be worlds where life doesn't give rise to advanced technology.
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็”Ÿๅ‘ฝไฝ“ใŒๆŠ€่ก“ใฎ็™บๅฑ•ใซ ๅŠ›ใ‚’ๅ…ฅใ‚Œใชใ„ๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใ‚‚ใ‚ใ‚‹ใงใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
05:43
Communication across space -- that's a fourth barrier.
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ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใฎๅฝผๆ–นใซใ‚ใ‚‹ๆ˜Ÿใจใฎใ‚„ใ‚Šใจใ‚Šโ€• ใใ‚ŒใŒ๏ผ”ใคใ‚ใฎ้šœๅฃใงใ™
05:45
Maybe advanced civilizations choose to explore inner space
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็™บๅฑ•ใ—ใŸๆ–‡ๆ˜Žใฏ ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใ‚ˆใ‚Šใ‚‚่‡ชๅˆ†ใฎๆ˜Ÿใฎๅ†…้ƒจใ‚’
05:49
rather than outer space,
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ๆŽข็ดขใ™ใ‚‹ใ“ใจใ‚’้ธใถใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
05:52
or engineer at small distances rather than large.
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ใ‚‚ใ—ใใฏ ้•ทใ„่ท้›ขใงใฏใชใ ็Ÿญใ„่ท้›ขใง่กŒใ†ใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
05:56
Or maybe they just don't want to risk an encounter
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ใ‚ใ‚‹ใ„ใฏ ใ‚ˆใ‚ŠๆŠ€่ก“ใŒ็™บๅฑ•ใ—ใฆใ„ใฆ ๆ•ตๅฏพๅฟƒใ‚‚ๆŒใคๅฏ่ƒฝๆ€งใฎใ‚ใ‚‹้šฃไบบใจ
05:59
with a potentially more advanced and hostile neighbor.
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ๅ‡บไผšใ†ใƒชใ‚นใ‚ฏใ‚’ๅ†’ใ—ใŸใใชใ„ใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
06:03
There'll be worlds where, for whatever reason,
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ไฝ•ใ‚‰ใ‹ใฎ็†็”ฑใง ๆฒˆ้ป™ใ‚’ๅฎˆใ‚‹ใ‹
06:05
civilizations either stay silent or don't spend long trying to communicate.
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ไป–ใจใฎใ‚ณใƒŸใƒฅใƒ‹ใ‚ฑใƒผใ‚ทใƒงใƒณใซ ๅŠดๅŠ›ใ‚’ใ‹ใ‘ใ‚ˆใ†ใจใ—ใชใ„ๆ–‡ๆ˜Žใ‚‚ใ‚ใ‚‹ใฏใšใงใ™
06:12
As for the height of the barriers,
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ใ“ใ‚Œใ‚‰ใฎ้šœๅฃใฎ้ซ˜ใ•ใซใคใ„ใฆใฏ
06:14
your guess is as good as anyone's.
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็š†ใ•ใ‚“ใฎๆŽจๆธฌใฏๅค–ใ‚Œใฆใ„ใพใ›ใ‚“
06:18
In my experience,
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็งใฎ็ตŒ้จ“ใงใฏ
06:19
when people sit down and do the math,
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ๆœบไธŠใง่จˆ็ฎ—ใ™ใ‚‹ใจ
06:21
they typically conclude there are thousands of civilizations in the galaxy.
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ใ“ใฎ้Š€ๆฒณ็ณปใซใฏไฝ•ๅƒใ‚‚ใฎๆ–‡ๆ˜ŽใŒใ‚ใ‚‹ใจ ๅคงๆŠตใฎไบบใŒ็ต่ซ–ไป˜ใ‘ใพใ™
06:27
But then we're back to the puzzle: Where is everybody?
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ใ—ใ‹ใ—ใใ“ใงๅ†ๅบฆ ่ฌŽใซ็›ด้ขใ—ใพใ™ ใฟใ‚“ใช ใฉใ“ใซใ„ใ‚‹ใฎ๏ผŸใจ
06:32
By definition,
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ๅฎš็พฉใงใฏ
06:33
UFOs -- including the one I saw --
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UFOใฏ โ€•็งใŒ่ฆ‹ใŸใ‚‚ใฎใ‚’ๅซใ‚โ€•
06:35
are unidentified.
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ๆœช็ขบ่ชใงใ™
06:37
We can't simply infer they're spacecraft.
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็ง้”ใฏใใ‚Œใ‚‰ใŒๅฎ‡ๅฎ™่ˆนใ ใจ ๅ˜็ด”ใซๆŽจๅฏŸใ™ใ‚‹ใ“ใจใฏใงใใพใ›ใ‚“
06:40
You can still have some fun playing with the idea aliens are here.
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ใใ‚Œใงใ‚‚ ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ไบบใŒๅญ˜ๅœจใ™ใ‚‹ใจใ„ใ†่€ƒใˆใ‚’ ๆƒณๅƒใ—ใฆๆฅฝใ—ใ‚€ใ“ใจใฏใงใใพใ™
06:45
Some say a summer civilization did colonize the galaxy
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ใ‚ใ‚‹ไบบใฏใ“ใ†่จ€ใ„ใพใ™ ๅคใซ่ช•็”Ÿใ—ใŸๆ–‡ๆ˜ŽใŒใ“ใฎ้Š€ๆฒณ็ณปใ‚’ๆ”ฏ้…ใ—
06:48
and seeded Earth with life ...
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ๅœฐ็ƒใซ็”Ÿๅ‘ฝใฎ็จฎใ‚’ใพใ„ใŸใจ
06:51
others, that we're living in a cosmic wilderness preserve --
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ใ‚ใ‚‹ไบบใฏ ็ง้”ใฏๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใฎ้‡Ž็”Ÿไฟ่ญทๅœฐๅŒบใซ ๆšฎใ‚‰ใ—ใฆใ„ใ‚‹ ใจ่จ€ใ„ใพใ™
06:54
a zoo.
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ใคใพใ‚Šๅ‹•็‰ฉๅœ’ใงใ™
06:56
Yet others --
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ใ•ใ‚‰ใซใ‚ใ‚‹ไบบใŒ่จ€ใ†ใซใฏโ€•
06:58
that we're living in a simulation.
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็ง้”ใฏใ‚ทใƒŸใƒฅใƒฌใƒผใ‚ทใƒงใƒณใฎไธญใง็”Ÿใใฆใ„ใฆ
07:00
Programmers just haven't revealed the aliens yet.
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ใƒ—ใƒญใ‚ฐใƒฉใƒžใƒผใŒๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ไบบใ‚’ ใพใ ็™ปๅ ดใ•ใ›ใฆใ„ใชใ„ใ ใ‘ใจใ‹
07:03
Most of my colleagues though argue that E.T. is out there,
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็งใฎๅŒๅƒšใฎๅคงๅŠใฏ E.T.ใฏๅญ˜ๅœจใ™ใ‚‹ใฎใง
07:08
we just need to keep looking,
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ๆŽข็ดขใ‚’็ถ™็ถšใ™ใ‚‹ในใใจไธปๅผตใ—ใพใ™
07:09
and this makes sense.
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ใใ‚Œใฏ็†ใซใ‹ใชใฃใฆใ„ใพใ™
07:11
Space is vast.
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ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใฏๅบƒๅคงใงใ™
07:13
Identifying a signal is hard,
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ไฟกๅทใ‚’่ญ˜ๅˆฅใ™ใ‚‹ใฎใฏ้›ฃใ—ใ
07:15
and we haven't been looking that long.
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ใพใ ้•ทๆœŸ้–“ ่ฆณๆธฌใงใใฆใ„ใ‚‹ ใ‚ใ‘ใงใฏใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ›ใ‚“
07:19
Without doubt, we should spend more on the search.
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็–‘ใ„ใฎไฝ™ๅœฐใชใ ๆŽข็ดขใซใ‚‚ใฃใจ ๆ™‚้–“ใ‚’่ฒปใ‚„ใ—ใŸๆ–นใŒใ‚ˆใ„ใฎใงใ™
07:22
It's about understanding our place in the universe.
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ใใ‚ŒใŒๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใงใฎ็ง้”ใฎ ็ซ‹ใกไฝ็ฝฎใ‚’็†่งฃใ™ใ‚‹ๆ–นๆณ•ใงใ™
07:25
It's too important a question to ignore.
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็„ก่ฆ–ใงใใชใ„ ้‡่ฆใช่ชฒ้กŒใงใ™
07:29
But there's an obvious answer:
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ใ—ใ‹ใ— ๆ˜Ž็™ฝใช็ญ”ใˆใ‚‚ใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ™
07:31
we're alone.
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็ง้”ใฏๅญค็‹ฌใ ใจใ„ใ†ใ“ใจ
07:33
It's just us.
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ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใซใฏ็ง้”ใ ใ‘ใชใฎใงใ™
07:34
There could be a trillion planets in the galaxy.
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ใ“ใฎ้Š€ๆฒณ็ณปใซใฏ๏ผ‘ๅ…†ใ‚‚ใฎ ๆƒ‘ๆ˜ŸใŒๅญ˜ๅœจใ™ใ‚‹ใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใชใ„ใฎใซ
07:38
Is it plausible we're the only creatures capable of contemplating this question?
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ใ“ใฎ็–‘ๅ•ใซใคใ„ใฆ่€ƒใˆใ‚‰ใ‚Œใ‚‹็”Ÿ็‰ฉใฏไบบ้กžใ ใ‘ ใใ‚“ใชใ“ใจไฟกใ˜ใ‚‰ใ‚Œใพใ™ใ‹๏ผŸ
07:43
Well, yes, because in this context,
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ใพใ‚ ใใ†ใงใ—ใ‚‡ใ† ใ“ใฎๆ–‡่„ˆใง่จ€ใˆใฐ
07:46
we don't know whether a trillion is a big number.
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็ง้”ใฏ๏ผ‘ๅ…†ใจใ„ใ†ใฎใŒ ๅคงใใชๆ•ฐๅญ—ใ‹ใฉใ†ใ‹ๅˆ†ใ‹ใ‚Šใพใ›ใ‚“
07:50
In 2000, Peter Ward and Don Brownlee proposed the Rare Earth idea.
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ใƒ”ใƒผใ‚ฟใƒผใƒปใ‚ฆใ‚ฉใƒผใƒ‰ใจใƒ‰ใƒณใƒปใƒ–ใƒฉใ‚ฆใƒณใƒชใƒผใŒ 2000ๅนดใซใƒฌใ‚ขใ‚ขใƒผใ‚นไปฎ่ชฌใ‚’็ซ‹ใฆใพใ—ใŸ
07:55
Remember those four barriers
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ๅ…ˆ็จ‹ใฎ๏ผ”ใคใฎ้šœๅฃใ‚’ๆ€ใ„ๅ‡บใ—ใฆใใ ใ•ใ„
07:57
that people use to estimate the number of civilizations?
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ใ‚ใ‚Œใฏๆ–‡ๆ˜Žใฎๆ•ฐใ‚’่ฆ‹็ฉใ‚‚ใ‚‹ใŸใ‚ใซ ็”จใ„ใ‚‰ใ‚Œใ‚‹ใ‚‚ใฎใงใ™ใŒ
08:01
Ward and Brownlee said there might be more.
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ๅฝผใ‚‰ใซใ‚ˆใ‚‹ใจ ใ‚‚ใฃใจๅคšใ„ใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใชใ„ใใ†ใงใ™
08:03
Let's look at one possible barrier.
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ใ‚ใ‚‹้šœๅฃใซใคใ„ใฆ่€ƒใˆใฆใฟใพใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
08:05
It's a recent suggestion by David Waltham,
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ๆœ€่ฟ‘ ๅœฐ็ƒ็‰ฉ็†ๅญฆ่€…ใฎ ใƒ‡ใƒ“ใƒƒใƒ‰ใƒปใ‚ฆใ‚ฉใƒซใ‚ตใƒ ใŒ
08:08
a geophysicist.
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ๆฌกใฎใ‚ˆใ†ใซๆๅ”ฑใ—ใฆใ„ใพใ™
08:10
This is my very simplified version
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ๅฝผใฎ็ด ๆ™ดใ‚‰ใ—ใๆด—็ทดใ•ใ‚ŒใŸ่ญฐ่ซ–ใ‚’
08:12
of Dave's much more sophisticated argument.
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ใ‹ใชใ‚Š็ฐก็•ฅๅŒ–ใ—ใฆ่ชฌๆ˜Žใ—ใพใ™
08:16
We are able to be here now
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็พๅœจ็ง้”ใŒ ๅœฐ็ƒใง ๆšฎใ‚‰ใ™ใ“ใจใŒใงใใ‚‹ใฎใฏ
08:18
because Earth's previous inhabitants enjoyed
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ๅœฐ็ƒใซๅญ˜ๅœจใ—ใŸ ้ŽๅŽปใฎ็”Ÿ็‰ฉใŸใกใŒ
08:20
four billion years of good weather --
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40ๅ„„ๅนดใ‚‚ใฎ้–“ ่‰ฏใ„ๆฐ—ๅ€™โ€•
08:23
ups and downs but more or less clement.
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ๅค‰ๅŒ–ใฏใ‚ใ‚Œใฉ ใ ใ„ใŸใ„ ๆธฉๆš–ใชๆฐ—ๅ€™ใซๆตใพใ‚Œใฆใ„ใŸใ‹ใ‚‰ใงใ™
08:26
But long-term climate stability is strange,
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ใ—ใ‹ใ— ๆฐ—ๅ€™ใŒ้•ทๆœŸ้–“ๅฎ‰ๅฎšใ™ใ‚‹ใฎใฏ ็ใ—ใ„ใ“ใจใงใ™
08:29
if only because astronomical influences
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ๅคฉๆ–‡็š„ใชๅฝฑ้Ÿฟใซใ‚ˆใ‚Š
08:31
can push a planet towards freezing or frying.
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ๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใฎๆฐ—ๅ€™ใฏๆฅตๅฏ’ใ‹ใ‚‰็ผ็†ฑใพใง ๅค‰ใ‚ใ‚Šใ†ใ‚‹ใ‹ใ‚‰ใงใ™
08:36
There's a hint our moon has helped,
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ๆœˆใฎๅƒใใซใ‚ˆใ‚‹ใ“ใจใ‚’็คบๅ”†ใ™ใ‚‹ ๆ‰‹ใŒใ‹ใ‚Šใ‚‚ใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ™
08:38
and that's interesting
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ใใ‚ŒใŒ่ˆˆๅ‘ณๆทฑใ„ใฎใฏ
08:40
because the prevailing theory is
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ๆœˆใฎ่ช•็”Ÿใซใคใ„ใฆใฎๆœ€ใ‚‚ๆœ‰ๅŠ›ใช่ชฌใฏ
08:42
that the moon came into being when Theia,
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็ซๆ˜Ÿใปใฉใฎๅคงใใ•ใฎ
08:44
a body the size of Mars,
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ใƒ†ใ‚คใ‚ขใจใ„ใ†ๆ˜ŸใŒ
08:46
crashed into a newly formed Earth.
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ๅŽŸๅง‹ๅœฐ็ƒใซ่ก็ชใ—ใฆ ใงใใŸใจใ„ใ†่ชฌใ ใ‹ใ‚‰ใงใ™
08:49
The outcome of that crash could have been a quite different Earth-Moon system.
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ใใฎ่ก็ชใฎ็ตๆžœๅฆ‚ไฝ•ใง ๅœฐ็ƒใจๆœˆใฎไฝ“็ณปใŒ ไปŠใจใฏ็•ฐใชใฃใฆใ„ใŸๅฏ่ƒฝๆ€งใ‚‚ใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ™
08:54
We ended up with a large moon
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็ตๆžœใจใ—ใฆ ๅคงใใชๆœˆใŒ่ช•็”Ÿใ—
08:56
and that permitted Earth to have both a stable axial tilt
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ๅœฐ็ƒใซ ไธ€ๅฎšใฎๅœฐ่ปธใฎๅ‚พใใจ
09:00
and a slow rotation rate.
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ใ‚†ใฃใใ‚Šใจใ—ใŸ้€Ÿๅบฆใงใฎ่‡ช่ปขใฎ ไธกๆ–นใ‚’ใ‚‚ใŸใ‚‰ใ—ใพใ—ใŸ
09:03
Both factors influence climate
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ใใฎไธกๆ–นใฎ่ฆ็ด ใŒ ๅคฉๅ€™ใซๅฝฑ้Ÿฟใ‚’ๅŠใผใ—
09:05
and the suggestion is that they've helped moderate climate change.
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ๅœฐ็ƒใฎๆฐ—ๅ€™ๅค‰ๅ‹•ใ‚’็ฉใ‚„ใ‹ใซใ—ใŸใจ ่จ€ใ‚ใ‚Œใฆใ„ใพใ™
09:09
Great for us, right?
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็ด ๆ™ดใ‚‰ใ—ใ„ใ“ใจใงใ™ใ‚ˆใญ๏ผŸ
09:11
But Waltham showed that if the moon were just a few miles bigger,
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ใ—ใ‹ใ— ใ‚ฆใ‚ฉใƒซใ‚ตใƒ ใฏ ใ‚‚ใ—ๆœˆใŒ ใ‚ใจๆ•ฐใ‚ญใƒญใงใ‚‚ๅคงใใ‹ใฃใŸใ‚‰
09:15
things would be different.
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็Šถๆณใฏ็•ฐใชใฃใฆใ„ใŸใจ็คบใ—ใฆใ„ใพใ™
09:16
Earth's spin axis would now wander chaotically.
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ๅœฐ็ƒใฎๅœฐ่ปธใฏๅฎšใพใ‚‰ใš ็„ก็งฉๅบใซๅ‹•ใใงใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
09:20
There'd be episodes of rapid climate change --
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ๆ€ฅๆฟ€ใชๆฐ—ๅ€™ๅค‰ๅ‹•ใซใ‚ˆใฃใฆ ๆง˜ใ€…ใชใ“ใจใŒ่ตทใใ‚‹ใงใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
09:23
not good for complex life.
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่ค‡้›‘็ณป็”Ÿๅ‘ฝใซใฏๆ‰“ๆ’ƒใงใ™
09:25
The moon is just the right size:
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ๆœˆใฏใพใ•ใซ้ฉๅฝ“ใชๅคงใใ•ใชใฎใงใ™
09:27
big but not too big.
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ๅคงใใ„ใงใ™ใŒ ๅคงใใ™ใŽใ‚‹ใ“ใจใฏใชใ„
09:30
A "Goldilocks" moon around a "Goldilocks" planet --
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ๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใฎๅ‘จใ‚Šใ‚’ๆœˆใŒๅ›žใ‚Š ไธกๆ–นใจใ‚‚ๅฑ…ไฝๅฏ่ƒฝ้ ˜ๅŸŸๅ†…ใซใ‚ใ‚‹ใƒผ
09:33
a barrier perhaps.
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ใ“ใ‚Œใ‚‚้šœๅฃใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
09:35
You can imagine more barriers.
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ใ‚‚ใฃใจๅคšใใฎ้šœๅฃใ‚‚ๆƒณๅƒใงใใพใ™
09:37
For instance,
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ไพ‹ใˆใฐ
09:38
simple cells came into being billions of years ago ...
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ไฝ•ๅๅ„„ๅนดใ‚‚ๅ‰ใซ ๅ˜็ดฐ่ƒž็”Ÿ็‰ฉใŒ่ช•็”Ÿใ—ใพใ—ใŸ
09:42
but perhaps the development of complex life
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ใ—ใ‹ใ—ใฒใ‚‡ใฃใจใ™ใ‚‹ใจ ่ค‡้›‘็ณป็”Ÿๅ‘ฝใฎ้€ฒๅŒ–ใฏ
09:45
needed a series of unlikely events.
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ไธ€้€ฃใฎๅฅ‡่ทก็š„ใชๅ‡บๆฅไบ‹ใŒ ใ‚‚ใŸใ‚‰ใ—ใŸใ‚‚ใฎใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
09:48
Once life on Earth had access to multicellularity
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ๅœฐ็ƒใฎ็”Ÿๅ‘ฝไฝ“ใŒ ๅคš็ดฐ่ƒžใจใชใ‚Š
09:51
and sophisticated genetic structures,
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้ซ˜ๅบฆใช้บไผๅญๆง‹้€ ใ‚’ๆŒใก
09:53
and sex,
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ไบค้…ใŒๅฏ่ƒฝใจใชใฃใŸๆ™‚
09:54
new opportunities opened up:
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ๆ–ฐใ—ใ„ๅฏ่ƒฝๆ€งใธใฎๆ‰‰ใŒ้–‹ใใพใ—ใŸ
09:56
animals became possible.
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ๅ‹•็‰ฉใŒ่ช•็”Ÿใ—ใŸใฎใงใ™
09:58
But maybe it's the fate of many planets
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ใ—ใ‹ใ— ใฒใ‚‡ใฃใจใ™ใ‚‹ใจ ๅคšใใฎๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใงใฏ
10:01
for life to settle at the level of simple cells.
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็”Ÿๅ‘ฝไฝ“ใŒๅ˜็ดฐ่ƒžใฎใพใพ ็•™ใพใ‚‹้‹ๅ‘ฝใซใ‚ใ‚‹ใฎใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
10:06
Purely for the purposes of illustration,
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ๅ˜็ด”ใซ ่ฉฑใ‚’ๅˆ†ใ‹ใ‚Šใ‚„ใ™ใใ™ใ‚‹ใŸใ‚ใซ
10:09
let me suggest four more barriers to add to the four
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ๅ‰่ฟฐใฎ๏ผ”ใคใฎ้šœๅฃใซ ๆ›ดใซ๏ผ”ใคใฎ้šœๅฃใ‚’ๅŠ ใˆใŸใ„ใจๆ€ใ„ใพใ™
10:12
that people said blocked the path to communicative civilization.
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ไบคๆตๅฏ่ƒฝใชๆ–‡ๆ˜Žใซใพใง็™บๅฑ•ใ™ใ‚‹ใฎใ‚’ ้ฎใฃใฆใ„ใ‚‹ใจใ•ใ‚Œใ‚‹ใ‚‚ใฎใงใ™
10:17
Again, purely for the purposes of illustration,
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็นฐใ‚Š่ฟ”ใ—ใงใ™ใŒ ๅ˜็ด”ใซ ่ฉฑใ‚’ๅˆ†ใ‹ใ‚Šใ‚„ใ™ใใ™ใ‚‹ใŸใ‚ใซ
10:21
suppose there's a one-in-a-thousand chance of making it across each of the barriers.
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ๅ„้šœๅฃใ‚’่ถŠใˆใ‚‰ใ‚Œใ‚‹ใฎใฏ ๅƒๅˆ†ใฎ๏ผ‘ใฎ็ขบ็Ž‡ใ ใจไปฎๅฎšใ—ใฆใฟใพใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
10:25
Of course there might be different ways of navigating the barriers,
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ใ‚‚ใกใ‚ใ‚“ ้šœๅฃใ‚’ไน—ใ‚Š่ถŠใˆใ‚‹ใซใฏ ไป–ใฎๆ–นๆณ•ใ‚‚ใ‚ใ‚‹ใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“ใ—
10:28
and some chances will be better than one in a thousand.
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ๅƒๅˆ†ใฎ๏ผ‘ใ‚ˆใ‚Š้ซ˜ใ„็ขบ็Ž‡ใฎๅ ดๅˆใ‚‚ ใ‚ใ‚‹ใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
10:31
Equally, there might be more barriers
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ๅŒๆง˜ใซ ไป–ใซใ‚‚ๅคšใใฎ้šœๅฃใŒใ‚ใ‚Š
10:33
and some chances might be one in a million.
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่ถŠใˆใ‚‰ใ‚Œใ‚‹็ขบ็Ž‡ใŒ ็™พไธ‡ๅˆ†ใฎ๏ผ‘ใจใ„ใ†ๅฏ่ƒฝๆ€งใ‚‚ใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ™
10:35
Let's just see what happens in this picture.
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ใใฎ็Šถๆณใงไฝ•ใŒ่ตทใใ‚‹ใ‹ ่€ƒใˆใฆใฟใพใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
10:39
If the galaxy contains a trillion planets,
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ใ‚‚ใ—ใ“ใฎ้Š€ๆฒณ็ณปใซ ๏ผ‘ๅ…†ใฎๆƒ‘ๆ˜ŸใŒใ‚ใ‚‹ใจใ—ใฆ
10:41
how many will host a civilization capable of contemplating like us
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ใƒ–ใƒฌใƒผใ‚ฏใ‚นใƒซใƒผใƒปใ‚นใ‚ฟใƒผใ‚ทใƒงใƒƒใƒˆใฎใ‚ˆใ†ใช่จˆ็”ปใ‚’ ็ง้”ใฎใ‚ˆใ†ใซ็ทดใ‚‹ใ“ใจใฎใงใใ‚‹ๆ–‡ๆ˜Žใ‚’
10:47
projects such as Breakthrough Starshot?
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ๆŒใคใ“ใจใŒใงใใ‚‹ๆ˜Ÿใฏ ใ„ใใคใ‚ใ‚‹ใงใ—ใ‚‡ใ†๏ผŸ
10:50
Habitability --
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ๅฑ…ไฝๅฏ่ƒฝๆ€งโ€•
10:51
right sort of planet around the right sort of star --
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้ฉๅˆ‡ใชๆ’ๆ˜Ÿใฎๅ‘จใ‚Šใ‚’ ้ฉๅˆ‡ใชๆƒ‘ๆ˜ŸใŒๅ›žใฃใฆใ„ใ‚‹ใฎใฏ
10:54
the trillion becomes a billion.
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๏ผ‘ๅ…†ใฎใ†ใก10ๅ„„ใจใ„ใ†่จˆ็ฎ—ใซใชใ‚Šใพใ™
10:56
Stability --
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ๅฎ‰ๅฎšๆ€งโ€•
10:58
a climate that stays benign for eons --
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ๆฐธไน…ใซ่‰ฏๅฅฝใชๆฐ—ๅ€™ใŒ็ถšใใฎใฏ
11:01
the billion becomes a million.
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10ๅ„„ใฎใ†ใก100ไธ‡ใซใชใ‚Šใพใ™
11:03
Life must start --
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็”Ÿๅ‘ฝใŒ่ช•็”Ÿใ™ใ‚‹ใฎใฏ
11:05
the million becomes a thousand.
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็™พไธ‡ใฎใ†ใก1ๅƒใซใชใ‚Šใพใ™
11:07
Complex life forms must arise --
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่ค‡้›‘็ณป็”Ÿๅ‘ฝใซ้€ฒๅŒ–ใ™ใ‚‹ใฎใฏ
11:10
the thousand becomes one.
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๏ผ‘ๅƒใฎใ†ใก๏ผ‘ใคใซใชใ‚Šใพใ™
11:12
Sophisticated tool use must develop --
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้ซ˜ๅบฆใช้“ๅ…ทใ‚’ไฝฟ็”จใงใใ‚‹ใพใงใซ ้€ฒๅŒ–ใ™ใ‚‹ใฎใฏ
11:14
that's one planet in a thousand galaxies.
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ๅƒใฎ้Š€ๆฒณใฎไธญใฎ ใŸใฃใŸ๏ผ‘ใคใฎๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใงใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
11:17
To understand the universe,
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ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใ‚’็†่งฃใ™ใ‚‹ใซใฏ
11:19
they'll have to develop the techniques of science and mathematics --
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็ง‘ๅญฆใจๆ•ฐๅญฆใฎๆŠ€่ก“ใ‚’็™บๅฑ•ใ•ใ›ใ‚‹ๅฟ…่ฆใŒใ‚ใ‚Š ใใ‚ŒใŒๅฏ่ƒฝใชใฎใฏ
11:22
that's one planet in a million galaxies.
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็™พไธ‡ใฎ้Š€ๆฒณใฎไธญใฎ ใŸใฃใŸ๏ผ‘ใคใฎๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใงใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
11:24
To reach the stars, they'll have to be social creatures,
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ไป–ใฎๆ˜Ÿใซๅˆฐ้”ใ™ใ‚‹ใซใฏ ใ‚จใ‚คใƒชใ‚ขใƒณใŒ็คพไผšๆ€งใ‚’ใ‚‚ใค็”Ÿๅ‘ฝไฝ“ใง
11:27
capable of discussing abstract concepts with each other
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ๆŠฝ่ฑก็š„ใชๆฆ‚ๅฟตใซใคใ„ใฆ ่ญฐ่ซ–ใ—ใ‚ใ†่ƒฝๅŠ›ใ‚’ใ‚‚ใคๅฟ…่ฆใŒใ‚ใ‚Šใพใ™
11:29
using complex grammar --
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ใ—ใ‹ใ‚‚่ค‡้›‘ใชๆ–‡ๆณ•ใ‚’็”จใ„ใฆใƒผ
11:31
one planet in a billion galaxies.
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ใใ‚“ใชใฎใฏ10ๅ„„ใฎ้Š€ๆฒณใฎไธญใฎ ใ‚ใšใ‹ใซ๏ผ‘ใคใฎๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใฎใฟใงใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
11:35
And they have to avoid disaster --
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ใพใŸ ๅคฉ็ฝใ‚’้ฟใ‘ใชใ‘ใ‚Œใฐใชใ‚Šใพใ›ใ‚“
11:36
not just self-inflicted but from the skies, too.
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ใใฎๆ˜Ÿใฎๅ†…้ƒจใ ใ‘ใงใชใ ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใ‹ใ‚‰ใฎๅคฉ็ฝใ‚‚ๅซใ‚ใฆใงใ™
11:40
That planet around Proxima Centauri,
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ใƒ—ใƒญใ‚ญใ‚ทใƒžใƒปใ‚ฑใƒณใ‚ฟใ‚ฆใƒชใ‚’ ๅ›žใฃใฆใ„ใŸๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใฏ
11:43
last year it got blasted by a flare.
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ๆ˜จๅนด ใƒ•ใƒฌใ‚ขใซใ‚ˆใ‚Š็ˆ†็™บใ—ใพใ—ใŸ
11:47
One planet in a trillion galaxies,
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ๅฏ่ฆ–ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใซใŠใ„ใฆ ใ“ใ‚Œใ‚’ๆบ€ใŸใ™ใฎใฏ
11:49
just as in the visible universe.
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๏ผ‘ๅ…†ใฎ้Š€ๆฒณใฎไธญใง ๏ผ‘ใคใฎๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใฎใฟใงใ—ใ‚‡ใ†
11:54
I think we're alone.
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็ง้”ใฏๅญค็‹ฌใงใ‚ใ‚‹ใจๆ€ใ„ใพใ™
11:57
Those colleagues of mine who agree we're alone
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็งใฎๅŒๅƒšใงใ“ใฎๆ„่ฆ‹ใซ ่ณ›ๆˆใ™ใ‚‹ไบบใฏ
11:59
often see a barrier ahead --
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ใ‚ˆใ ็ง้”ใฎ็›ฎใฎๅ‰ใซใ‚ใ‚‹ ใ‚ใ‚‹้šœๅฃใซใคใ„ใฆ่€ƒใˆใฆใ„ใพใ™
12:02
bioterror,
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็”Ÿ็‰ฉๅ…ตๅ™จใƒ†ใƒญ
12:04
global warming, war.
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ๅœฐ็ƒๆธฉๆš–ๅŒ–ใ€ๆˆฆไบ‰ใชใฉใงใ™
12:06
A universe that's silent
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ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใฏๆฒˆ้ป™ใ—ใฆใ„ใพใ™
12:09
because technology itself forms the barrier
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ใชใœใชใ‚‰ ๆŠ€่ก“ใใฎใ‚‚ใฎใŒ ็œŸใซ้€ฒๆญฉใ—ใŸๆ–‡ๆ˜ŽใŒ็™บๅฑ•ใ™ใ‚‹ใ†ใˆใงใฎ
12:12
to the development of a truly advanced civilization.
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้šœๅฃใ‚’ไฝœใ‚Šๅ‡บใ—ใฆใ„ใ‚‹ใ‹ใ‚‰ใงใ™
12:16
Depressing, right?
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ๆฐ—ใŒ้‡ใใชใ‚Šใพใ™ใ‚ˆใญ๏ผŸ
12:19
I'm arguing the exact opposite.
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็งใฏๅ…จใ้€†ใฎใ“ใจใ‚’ไธปๅผตใ—ใพใ™
12:22
I grew up watching "Star Trek" and "Forbidden Planet,"
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ใ€Žใ‚นใ‚ฟใƒผใƒปใƒˆใƒฌใƒƒใ‚ฏใ€ใ‚„ ใ€Ž็ฆๆ–ญใฎๆƒ‘ๆ˜Ÿใ€ใ‚’่ฆ‹ใฆ่‚ฒใกใพใ—ใŸ
12:25
and I saw a UFO once,
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ใ‹ใคใฆUFOใ‚‚่ฆ‹ใพใ—ใŸ
12:26
so this idea of cosmic loneliness I certainly find slightly wistful.
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ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใซๅญ˜ๅœจใ™ใ‚‹ใฎใฏๆˆ‘ใ€…ใฎใฟใจใ„ใ†่€ƒใˆใซใฏ ใ‚‚ใกใ‚ใ‚“ๅฐ‘ใ—็‰ฉๆ‚ฒใ—ใ„ๆฐ—ๆŒใกใงใ™
12:34
But for me,
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ใ—ใ‹ใ— ็งใซ่จ€ใ‚ใ›ใ‚‹ใจ
12:36
the silence of the universe is shouting,
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ๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใฎๆฒˆ้ป™ใŒๅซใ‚“ใงใ„ใพใ™
12:38
"We're the creatures who got lucky."
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ใ€Œๆˆ‘ใ€…ใฏๅนธ้‹ใช็”Ÿใ็‰ฉใ ใ€ใจ
12:40
All barriers are behind us.
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็ง้”ใฏๅ…จใฆใฎ้šœๅฃใ‚’ ไน—ใ‚Š่ถŠใˆใฆใใพใ—ใŸ
12:42
We're the only species that's cleared them --
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้šœๅฃใ‚’ไน—ใ‚Š่ถŠใˆใ‚‹ใ“ใจใŒใงใใŸ ๅ”ฏไธ€ใฎ็จฎใงใ‚ใ‚Š
12:45
the only species capable of determining its own destiny.
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่‡ชใ‚‰ใฎ้‹ๅ‘ฝใ‚’ๆฑบใ‚ใ‚‹ใ“ใจใŒ ใงใใ‚‹ใฎใฏ็ง้”ใ ใ‘ใงใ™
12:49
And if we learn to appreciate how special our planet is,
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ใ‚‚ใ—็ง้”ใŒ ใ„ใ‹ใซๅœฐ็ƒใŒ็‰นๅˆฅใชๅญ˜ๅœจใงใ‚ใ‚Š
12:53
how important it is to look after our home
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ๆ•…้ƒทใŸใ‚‹ๅœฐ็ƒใ‚’ๅคงๅˆ‡ใซใ™ใ‚‹ใ“ใจ ไป–ใฎ็”Ÿๅ‘ฝไฝ“ใ‚’่ฆ‹ใคใ‘ใ‚‹ใ“ใจใŒ้‡่ฆใงใ‚ใ‚Š
12:56
and to find others,
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12:57
how incredibly fortunate we all are simply to be aware of the universe,
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ใพใŸ ็š†ใŒๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ใฎๅญ˜ๅœจใ‚’็Ÿฅใฃใฆใ„ใ‚‹ใ“ใจใŒ ใ„ใ‹ใซๅนธ้‹ใงใ‚ใ‚‹ใ‹ใซๆ„Ÿ่ฌใ™ใ‚‹ๅฟƒใ‚’ๅญฆในใ‚Œใฐ
13:02
humanity might survive for a while.
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ๅฝ“้ข ไบบ้กžใฎๆ–‡ๆ˜Žใฏ ็”Ÿใๅปถใณใ‚‰ใ‚Œใ‚‹ใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
13:05
And all those amazing things
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้ŽๅŽปใซๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ไบบใŒใ—ใŸใฎใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใชใ„ใจ
13:06
we dreamed aliens might have done in the past,
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็ง้”ใŒๆƒณๅƒใ—ใฆใ„ใŸ ็ด ๆ™ดใ‚‰ใ—ใ„ๅ…จใฆใฎใ“ใจใฏ
13:09
that could be our future.
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็ง้”ใฎๆœชๆฅใ‹ใ‚‚ใ—ใ‚Œใพใ›ใ‚“
13:11
Thank you very much.
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ใฉใ†ใ‚‚ใ‚ใ‚ŠใŒใจใ†ใ”ใ–ใ„ใพใ—ใŸ
13:12
(Applause)
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๏ผˆๆ‹ๆ‰‹๏ผ‰
ใ“ใฎใ‚ฆใ‚งใƒ–ใ‚ตใ‚คใƒˆใซใคใ„ใฆ

ใ“ใฎใ‚ตใ‚คใƒˆใงใฏ่‹ฑ่ชžๅญฆ็ฟ’ใซๅฝน็ซ‹ใคYouTubeๅ‹•็”ปใ‚’็ดนไป‹ใ—ใพใ™ใ€‚ไธ–็•Œไธญใฎไธ€ๆต่ฌ›ๅธซใซใ‚ˆใ‚‹่‹ฑ่ชžใƒฌใƒƒใ‚นใƒณใ‚’่ฆ‹ใ‚‹ใ“ใจใŒใงใใพใ™ใ€‚ๅ„ใƒ“ใƒ‡ใ‚ชใฎใƒšใƒผใ‚ธใซ่กจ็คบใ•ใ‚Œใ‚‹่‹ฑ่ชžๅญ—ๅน•ใ‚’ใƒ€ใƒ–ใƒซใ‚ฏใƒชใƒƒใ‚ฏใ™ใ‚‹ใจใ€ใใ“ใ‹ใ‚‰ใƒ“ใƒ‡ใ‚ชใ‚’ๅ†็”Ÿใ™ใ‚‹ใ“ใจใŒใงใใพใ™ใ€‚ๅญ—ๅน•ใฏใƒ“ใƒ‡ใ‚ชใฎๅ†็”ŸใจๅŒๆœŸใ—ใฆใ‚นใ‚ฏใƒญใƒผใƒซใ—ใพใ™ใ€‚ใ”ๆ„่ฆ‹ใƒปใ”่ฆๆœ›ใŒใ”ใ–ใ„ใพใ—ใŸใ‚‰ใ€ใ“ใกใ‚‰ใฎใŠๅ•ใ„ๅˆใ‚ใ›ใƒ•ใ‚ฉใƒผใƒ ใ‚ˆใ‚Šใ”้€ฃ็ตกใใ ใ•ใ„ใ€‚

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