Where are all the aliens? | Stephen Webb

Translator: Polona Ramšak Reviewer: Jonathan Rebetz

I saw a UFO once.

Nekoč sem videl NLP.

I was eight or nine,

Star sem bil osem ali devet let,

playing in the street with a friend who was a couple of years older,

s prijateljem, ki je bil nekaj let starejši, sem se igral na ulici

and we saw a featureless silver disc hovering over the houses.

in videla sva pust srebrn disk, ki je lebdel nad hišami.

We watched it for a few seconds,

Nekaj sekund sva ga gledala,

and then it shot away incredibly quickly.

nato pa se je neverjetno hitro izstrelil stran.

Even as a kid,

Celo kot otroka

I got angry it was ignoring the laws of physics.

me je jezilo, ker je ignoriral vse fizikalne zakone.

We ran inside to tell the grown-ups,

Stekla sva noter, da bi povedala odraslim,

and they were skeptical --

in bili so skeptični ...

you'd be skeptical too, right?

Tudi vi bi bili skeptični, kajne?

Nekaj let kasneje sem bil tudi jaz.

I got my own back a few years later:

one of those grown-ups told me,

Eden od tistih odraslih mi je rekel:

"Last night I saw a flying saucer.

"Sinoči sem videl NLP.

I was coming out of the pub after a few drinks."

Vračal sem se iz gostilne po nekaj kozarčkih."

I stopped him there. I said, "I can explain that sighting."

Ustavil sem ga in rekel: "To videnje pa lahko razložim."

(Laughter)

(smeh)

Psychologists have shown we can't trust our brains

Psihologi so pokazali, da možganom ne moremo zaupati, da nam

to tell the truth.

bodo povedali resnico.

It's easy to fool ourselves.

Z lahkoto nas preslepijo.

I saw something,

Nekaj sem videl,

but what's more likely --

ampak kaj je bolj verjetno:

that I saw an alien spacecraft,

da sem videl neznano plovilo ali da so moji možgani

or that my brain misinterpreted the data my eyes were giving it?

napačno interpretirali podatke, ki so jim jih poslale moje oči?

Ever since though I've wondered:

Pa vendar se od takrat sprašujem,

Why don't we see flying saucers flitting around?

zakaj okoli sebe ne vidimo švigati letečih krožnikov?

At the very least,

Zakaj vsaj ne vidimo

why don't we see life out there in the cosmos?

življenja tam zunaj v kozmosu?

It's a puzzle,

To je uganka,

and I've discussed it with dozens of experts

o kateri v zadnjih treh desetletjih diskutiramo

from different disciplines over the past three decades.

z na desetine strokovnjaki z različnih področij.

And there's no consensus.

In ne pridemo do soglasja.

Frank Drake began searching for alien signals back in 1960 --

Frank Drake je začel že leta 1960 iskati nezemljanske signale,

so far, nothing.

pa do danes - nič.

And with each passing year,

In z vsakim minulim letom

this nonobservation,

ta nezasleditev,

this lack of evidence for any alien activity gets more puzzling

to pomanjkanje dokazov nezemeljske aktivnosti postane bolj begajoče,

because we should see them, shouldn't we?

ker bi jih vendar morali videti, kajne?

The universe is 13.8 billion years old,

Vesolje je staro približno

13,8 milijard let.

give or take.

If we represent the age of the universe by one year,

Če predstavimo starost vesolja z enim letom,

then our species came into being about 12 minutes before midnight,

je naša vrsta nastala približno 12 minut pred polnočjo

31st December.

31. decembra.

Western civilization has existed for a few seconds.

Zahodna civilizacija obstaja nekaj sekund.

Extraterrestrial civilizations could have started in the summer months.

Izvenzemeljske civilizacije bi se lahko začele v poletnih mesecih.

Imagine a summer civilization

Predstavljajte si poletno civilizacijo,

developing a level of technology more advanced than ours,

kako razvija tehnologijo, ki je mnogo bolj napredna od naše,

but tech based on accepted physics though,

a temelji na sprejeti fiziki,

I'm not talking wormholes or warp drives -- whatever --

ne govorim o črvinah ali warp pogonu ali čemer koli že,

just an extrapolation of the sort of tech that TED celebrates.

samo ekstrapolacija neke vrste tehnologije, ki jo slavi TED.

That civilization could program self-replicating probes

Ta civilizacija bi lahko programirala samopodvojevalne vesoljske kapsule,

to visit every planetary system in the galaxy.

da bi obiskala vse planetarne sisteme v galaksiji.

If they launched the first probes just after midnight one August day,

Če bi prve sonde lansirali malo po polnoči nekega avgustovskega dne,

then before breakfast same day,

bi pred zajtrkom istega dne

they could have colonized the galaxy.

že lahko kolonizirali galaksijo.

Intergalactic colonization isn't much more difficult,

Intergalaktična kolonizacija ni veliko težja,

it just takes longer.

samo dlje traja.

A civilization from any one of millions of galaxies

Civilizacija iz katere koli od milijona galaksij

could have colonized our galaxy.

bi lahko kolonizirala našo galaksijo.

Seems far-fetched?

Se zdi za lase privlečeno?

Maybe it is,

Morda je,

but wouldn't aliens engage in some recognizable activity --

ampak ali se ne bi Nezemljani lotili kake prepoznavne aktivnosti ...

put worldlets around a star to capture free sunlight,

okoli zvezde bi nanizali planetoide, da bi ujeli zastonj svetlobo,

collaborate on a Wikipedia Galactica,

sodelovali pri Wikipediji Galaktiki

or just shout out to the universe, "We're here"?

ali preprosto zakričali v vesolje: "Tukaj smo!"?

So where is everybody?

Kje so torej vsi?

It's a puzzle because we do expect these civilizations to exist, don't we?

To je uganka, ker pričakujemo, da te civilizacije obstajajo, kajne?

After all, there could be a trillion planets in the galaxy --

Konec koncev je lahko v galaksiji bilijon planetov,

maybe more.

mogoče več.

You don't need any special knowledge to consider this question,

Nobenega posebnega znanja ne potrebujete, da razmislite o tem vprašanju.

and I've explored it with lots of people over the years.

Jaz sem ga leta in leta raziskoval z mnogimi ljudmi.

And I've found they often frame their thinking

Ugotovil sem, da pogosto omejujejo svoje razmišljanje

in terms of the barriers that would need to be cleared

s preprekami, ki bi jih bilo potrebno odstraniti,

if a planet is to host a communicative civilization.

če bi naj nek planet bil dom komunikativne civilizacije.

And they usually identify four key barriers.

In ponavadi identificirajo štiri ključne prepreke:

Habitability --

bivalnost,

that's the first barrier.

to je prva prepreka.

We need a terrestrial planet in that just right "Goldilocks zone,"

Potrebujemo zemeljski planet v tisti ravno pravi idealni coni,

where water flows as a liquid.

kjer voda teče kot tekočina.

They're out there.

Taki obstajajo.

In 2016, astronomers confirmed there's a planet in the habitable zone

Leta 2016 so astronomi potrdili, da obstaja planet v naseljivi coni

of the closest star,

najbližje zvezde,

Proxima Centauri --

Proxima Centauri,

so close that Breakthrough Starshot project plans to send probes there.

tako blizu, da bo projekt Breakthrough Starshot tja poslal vesoljske kapsule.

We'd become a starfaring species.

Postali bi civilizacija, ki potuje med zvezdami.

But not all worlds are habitable.

A vsi svetovi niso naseljivi.

Nekateri bodo preblizu zvezdi in se bodo scvrli.

Some will be too close to a star and they'll fry,

some will be too far away and they'll freeze.

Nekateri bodo predaleč in bodo zmrznili.

Abiogenesis --

Abiogeneza,

the creation of life from nonlife --

ustvarjanje življenja iz neživljenja,

that's the second barrier.

je druga prepreka.

The basic building blocks of life aren't unique to Earth:

Osnovni gradniki življenja niso značilni le za Zemljo.

amino acids have been found in comets,

Aminokisline smo našli tudi na kometih,

complex organic molecules in interstellar dust clouds,

kompleksne organske molekule v medzvezdnih oblakih prahu,

water in exoplanetary systems.

vodo v zunajosončnih sistemih.

The ingredients are there,

Sestavine so na voljo,

we just don't know how they combine to create life,

a ne vemo, kako se skombinirajo, da usvarijo življenje.

and presumably there will be worlds on which life doesn't start.

Domnevno obstajajo tudi svetovi, na katerih se življenje ne začne.

The development of technological civilization is a third barrier.

Razvoj tehnološke civilizacije je tretja prepreka.

Some say we already share our planet with alien intelligences.

Nekateri pravijo, da že delimo planet z izvenzemeljsko inteligenco.

A 2011 study showed that elephants can cooperate to solve problems.

Študija iz l. 2011 je pokazala, da sloni sodelujejo, da rešijo probleme.

A 2010 study showed

Študija iz l. 2010 je pokazala,

that an octopus in captivity can recognize different humans.

da lahko hobotnica v ujetništvu prepozna različne ljudi.

2017 studies show that ravens can plan for future events --

Študije iz l. 2017 so pokazale, da znajo vrane načrtovati za prihodnost -

wonderful, clever creatures --

čudovita, pametna bitja -

but they can't contemplate the Breakthrough Starshot project,

a ne morejo ustvariti projekta Breakthrough Starshot

and if we vanished today,

in če bi danes izginili,

they wouldn't go on to implement Breakthrough Starshot --

ne bi uporabile projekta Breakthrough Starshot -

why should they?

zakaj bi ga?

Evolution doesn't have space travel as an end goal.

Končni cilj evolucije ni vesoljsko potovanje.

There will be worlds where life doesn't give rise to advanced technology.

Obstajajo svetovi, kjer življenje ne ustvarja napredne tehnologije.

Communication across space -- that's a fourth barrier.

Komunikacija po vesolju, to je četrta prepreka.

Maybe advanced civilizations choose to explore inner space

Morda napredne civilizacije raje raziskujejo bližnje vesolje

rather than outer space,

kot pa daljnje vesolje

or engineer at small distances rather than large.

ali pa raje konstruirajo za manjše razdalje, ne večje.

Or maybe they just don't want to risk an encounter

Ali mogoče preprosto nočejo tvegati srečanja

with a potentially more advanced and hostile neighbor.

s potencialno naprednejšim in sovražnejšim sosedom.

There'll be worlds where, for whatever reason,

Obstajajo svetovi, kjer civilizacije iz katerih koli razlogov

civilizations either stay silent or don't spend long trying to communicate.

ali želijo biti tiho ali pa ne poskušajo komunicirati dolgo.

As for the height of the barriers,

Kar se tiče največjih preprek,

your guess is as good as anyone's.

lahko ugibate tako kot jaz.

In my experience,

Po mojih izkušnjah

when people sit down and do the math,

ljudje, ko sedejo in računajo,

they typically conclude there are thousands of civilizations in the galaxy.

tipično zaključijo, da je v galaksiji na tisoče civilizacij.

But then we're back to the puzzle: Where is everybody?

Pa smo spet pri uganki: kje so vsi?

By definition,

Definicija pravi, da so NLP-ji,

UFOs -- including the one I saw --

vključno s tistim, ki sem ga jaz videl,

are unidentified.

neidentificirani.

We can't simply infer they're spacecraft.

Ne moremo kar sklepati, da so vesoljska plovila.

You can still have some fun playing with the idea aliens are here.

Še vedno se lahko malo pozabavate z idejo, da obstajajo Nezemljani.

Some say a summer civilization did colonize the galaxy

Nekateri pravijo, da je neka poletna civilizacija kolonizirala galaksijo

and seeded Earth with life ...

in na Zemlji zasejala življenje.

others, that we're living in a cosmic wilderness preserve --

Drugi pravijo, da živimo v divjem kozmičnem rezervatu,

a zoo.

živalskem vrtu.

Yet others --

In tretji pravijo,

that we're living in a simulation.

da živimo v simulaciji.

Programmers just haven't revealed the aliens yet.

Programerji samo še niso razkrili Nezemljanov.

Most of my colleagues though argue that E.T. is out there,

Večina mojih kolegov trdi, da E.T. obstaja,

we just need to keep looking,

samo poiskati ga moramo,

and this makes sense.

in to je smiselno.

Space is vast.

Vesolje je prostrano.

Identifying a signal is hard,

Identificirati signal je težko

and we haven't been looking that long.

in ne iščemo še dolgo.

Without doubt, we should spend more on the search.

Nedvomno bi morali za iskanje zapraviti več.

It's about understanding our place in the universe.

Gre za razumevanje, kaj v vesolju pomenimo.

It's too important a question to ignore.

To vprašanje je preveč pomembno, da bi ga ignorirali.

But there's an obvious answer:

A obstaja očiten odgovor:

we're alone.

sami smo.

It's just us.

Samo mi smo.

There could be a trillion planets in the galaxy.

V galaksiji lahko obstaja bilijon planetov.

Is it plausible we're the only creatures capable of contemplating this question?

Ali je verjetno, da smo edina bitja, sposobna razmišljati o tem vprašanju?

Well, yes, because in this context,

No, da, ker v tem kontekstu

we don't know whether a trillion is a big number.

ne vemo, ali je bilijon velika številka.

In 2000, Peter Ward and Don Brownlee proposed the Rare Earth idea.

L. 2000 sta Peter Ward in Don Brownlee prišla na plan z idejo Rare Earth.

Remember those four barriers

Se spomnite tistih štirih preprek,

that people use to estimate the number of civilizations?

s katerimi ljudje ocenjujejo število civilizacij?

Ward and Brownlee said there might be more.

Ward in Brownlee sta rekla, da jih je morda več.

Let's look at one possible barrier.

Poglejto si eno možno prepreko.

It's a recent suggestion by David Waltham,

Gre za nedavni predlog Davida Walthama,

a geophysicist.

geofizika.

This is my very simplified version

To je moja zelo poenostavljena verzija

of Dave's much more sophisticated argument.

Davidovega mnogo bolj sofisticiranega argumenta.

We are able to be here now

Tu smo lahko,

because Earth's previous inhabitants enjoyed

ker so Zemljini prejšnji prebivalci uživali

four billion years of good weather --

štiri milijarde let lepega vremena -

ups and downs but more or less clement.

boljšega in slabšega, a bolj kot ne blagega.

But long-term climate stability is strange,

A dolgoročna vremenska stabilnost je čudna,

if only because astronomical influences

če ne zaradi drugega, zato; ker lahko astronomski vplivi

can push a planet towards freezing or frying.

potisnejo planet proti zamrznitvi ali cvrenju.

There's a hint our moon has helped,

Namig - naša Luna je pomagala,

and that's interesting

kar je zanimivo,

because the prevailing theory is

saj prevladujoča teorija pravi,

that the moon came into being when Theia,

da je Luna nastala, ko se je Theia,

a body the size of Mars,

gmota, velika kot Mars,

crashed into a newly formed Earth.

zaletela v novo formirano Zemljo.

The outcome of that crash could have been a quite different Earth-Moon system.

Izid trka bi lahko bil precej drugačen sistem Zemlja - Luna.

We ended up with a large moon

Tako pa je nastala velika Luna,

and that permitted Earth to have both a stable axial tilt

kar je omogočilo Zemlji, da ima tako stabilno nagnjenost osi

and a slow rotation rate.

kot tudi majhno hitrost rotacije.

Both factors influence climate

Oba faktorja vplivata na podnebje

and the suggestion is that they've helped moderate climate change.

in možno je, da sta pomagala oblikovati zmerne podnebne spremembe.

Great for us, right?

Super za nas, kajne?

But Waltham showed that if the moon were just a few miles bigger,

A Waltham je pokazal, da če bi bila Luna samo nekaj milj večja,

things would be different.

bi bile stvari drugačne.

Earth's spin axis would now wander chaotically.

Zemljina os vrtenja bi kaotično uhajala.

There'd be episodes of rapid climate change --

Bili bi trenutki hitrih klimatskih sprememb,

not good for complex life.

ki niso dobri za kompleksno življenje.

The moon is just the right size:

Luna je ravno prave velikosti:

big but not too big.

velika, a ne prevelika.

A "Goldilocks" moon around a "Goldilocks" planet --

Idealna luna okoli idealnega planeta -

a barrier perhaps.

morda prepreka.

You can imagine more barriers.

Lahko si predstavljate še več preprek.

For instance,

Na primer,

simple cells came into being billions of years ago ...

preproste celice so se pojavile pred milijardami let,

but perhaps the development of complex life

a morda je razvoj kompleksnega življenja

needed a series of unlikely events.

potreboval serijo malo verjetnih dogodkov.

Once life on Earth had access to multicellularity

Ko je enkrat življenje na Zemlji imelo dostop do večceličnosti,

and sophisticated genetic structures,

sofisticiranih genetskih struktur

and sex,

in spola,

new opportunities opened up:

so se odprle nove možnosti:

animals became possible.

možne so postale živali.

But maybe it's the fate of many planets

A mogoče je usoda mnogih planetov,

for life to settle at the level of simple cells.

da se življenje ustavi na stopnji preprostih celic.

Purely for the purposes of illustration,

Samo za namen ponazoritve

let me suggest four more barriers to add to the four

naj predlagam še štiri prepreke kot dodatek štirim,

that people said blocked the path to communicative civilization.

za katere pravijo, da so preprečile pot do komunikativnih civilizacij.

Again, purely for the purposes of illustration,

Spet, samo za namen ponazoritve, si predstavljajte,

suppose there's a one-in-a-thousand chance of making it across each of the barriers.

da obstaja možnost 1 proti 1000, da se premaga vsako od teh preprek.

Of course there might be different ways of navigating the barriers,

Seveda lahko obstajajo različni načini navigiranja med preprekami

and some chances will be better than one in a thousand.

in nekatere možnosti bodo boljše kot 1 proti 1000.

Equally, there might be more barriers

Prav tako lahko obstaja več preprek

in nekatere možnosti bodo lahko 1 proti milijon.

and some chances might be one in a million.

Let's just see what happens in this picture.

Pa poglejmo, kaj se zdaj zgodi.

If the galaxy contains a trillion planets,

Če galaksija vsebuje bilijon planetov,

how many will host a civilization capable of contemplating like us

koliko jih je dom civilizaciji, ki si je sposobna kot mi izmisliti

projects such as Breakthrough Starshot?

projekte, kot je Breakthrough Starshot?

Habitability --

Bivalnost -

right sort of planet around the right sort of star --

prava vrsta planeta okoli prave vrste zvezde -

the trillion becomes a billion.

in bilijon postane milijarda.

Stability --

Stabilnost -

a climate that stays benign for eons --

podnebje, ki ostane neškodljivo eone let -

the billion becomes a million.

in milijarda postane milijon.

Life must start --

Življenje se mora začeti -

the million becomes a thousand.

in milijon postane tisoč.

Complex life forms must arise --

Nastati mora kompleksno življenje -

the thousand becomes one.

in tisoč postane ena.

Sophisticated tool use must develop --

Razviti se mora uporaba sofisticiranih orodij -

that's one planet in a thousand galaxies.

in imamo en planet v tisoč galaksijah.

To understand the universe,

Da bi razumeli vesolje,

they'll have to develop the techniques of science and mathematics --

bi morali razviti tehniki znanosti in matematike -

that's one planet in a million galaxies.

in imamo en planet v milijon galaksijah.

To reach the stars, they'll have to be social creatures,

Da bi dosegli zvezde, bi morali biti družabna bitja,

capable of discussing abstract concepts with each other

sposobna diskusije o abstraktnih konceptih

using complex grammar --

z uporabo kompleksne slovnice -

one planet in a billion galaxies.

en planet v milijardi galaksij.

And they have to avoid disaster --

In morali bi se izogniti katastrofam -

not just self-inflicted but from the skies, too.

ne le zadanih sebi, ampak tudi z neba.

That planet around Proxima Centauri,

Tisti planet okoli Proxime Centauri

last year it got blasted by a flare.

je lani ožgal plamen.

One planet in a trillion galaxies,

En planet v bilijonu galaksij,

just as in the visible universe.

kot jih tudi je v vidnem vesolju.

I think we're alone.

Mislim, da smo sami.

Those colleagues of mine who agree we're alone

Tisti moji kolegi, ki se strinjajo, da smo sami,

often see a barrier ahead --

pogosto pred sabo vidijo prepreko -

bioterror,

biološki terorizem,

global warming, war.

globalno segrevanje, vojne.

A universe that's silent

Vesolje, ki je tiho,

because technology itself forms the barrier

ker sama tehnologija predstavlja prepreko

to the development of a truly advanced civilization.

za razvoj resnično napredne civilizacije.

Depressing, right?

Depresivno, kajne?

I'm arguing the exact opposite.

Jaz trdim prav nasprotno.

I grew up watching "Star Trek" and "Forbidden Planet,"

Odrastel sem ob Zvezdnih stezah in Prepovedanem planetu

and I saw a UFO once,

in enkrat sem videl NLP,

so this idea of cosmic loneliness I certainly find slightly wistful.

tako da se mi ideja kozmične samote zdi malce turobna.

But for me,

A meni

the silence of the universe is shouting,

tišina vesolja kriči:

"We're the creatures who got lucky."

"Mi smo tisti, ki se nam je posrečilo."

All barriers are behind us.

Vse prepreke so za nami.

We're the only species that's cleared them --

Mi smo edina vrsta, ki jih je premagala -

the only species capable of determining its own destiny.

edina vrsta, ki je bila sposobna določiti lastno usodo.

And if we learn to appreciate how special our planet is,

In če se naučimo ceniti, kako poseben je naš planet,

how important it is to look after our home

kako pomembno je paziti na svoj dom

and to find others,

in najti druge,

how incredibly fortunate we all are simply to be aware of the universe,

kako izjemno srečo imamo, ker se zavedamo vesolja,

humanity might survive for a while.

bo človeštvo morda obstalo še nekaj časa.

And all those amazing things

In vse te izjemne stvari,

we dreamed aliens might have done in the past,

ki bi jih naj v preteklosti morda naredili Nezemljani,

that could be our future.

so lahko naša prihodnost.

Thank you very much.

Hvala lepa.

(Applause)

(aplavz)