Why you should love statistics | Alan Smith

Prevodilac: Ivana Krivokuća Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović

Back in 2003,

Godine 2003

the UK government carried out a survey.

vlada Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva je sprovela istraživanje.

And it was a survey that measured levels of numeracy

Bilo je to istraživanje koje je merilo nivo numeričke pismenosti

in the population.

u populaciji.

And they were shocked to find out

Šokiralo ih je otkriće

that for every 100 working age adults in the country,

da je, od svakih 100 radno sposobnih odraslih osoba u zemlji,

47 of them lacked Level 1 numeracy skills.

njih 47 bilo ispod prvog nivoa numeričke pismenosti.

Now, Level 1 numeracy skills -- that's low-end GCSE score.

Numerička pismenost prvog nivoa - to su niži rezultati

potrebni za sertifikat o srednjoškolskom obrazovanju.

It's the ability to deal with fractions, percentages and decimals.

To je sposobnost baratanja razlomcima, procentima i decimalama.

So this figure prompted a lot of hand-wringing in Whitehall.

Ova cifra je stoga izazvala mnogo uznemirenosti u vladi.

Policies were changed,

Politika je izmenjena,

investments were made,

sprovedena su ulaganja,

and then they ran the survey again in 2011.

a zatim su 2011. godine ponovo sproveli istraživanje.

So can you guess what happened to this number?

Da li onda možete da pogodite šta se dogodilo sa ovim brojem?

It went up to 49.

Popeo se na 49.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And in fact, when I reported this figure in the FT,

Zapravo, kada sam izveštavao o ovoj cifri u Fajnenšel tajmsu,

one of our readers joked and said,

jedan naš čitalac se našalio i rekao:

"This figure is only shocking to 51 percent of the population."

„Ova cifra je šokantna samo za 51 odsto populacije.“

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Ipak mi se više svidela reakcija jednog školarca

But I preferred, actually, the reaction of a schoolchild

kada sam predstavljao ovu informaciju u jednoj školi,

when I presented at a school this information,

koji je podigao ruku i rekao:

who raised their hand and said,

"How do we know that the person who made that number

„Kako znamo da i osoba koja je smislila taj broj

nije jedna u tih 49 posto?“

isn't one of the 49 percent either?"

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So clearly, there's a numeracy issue,

Dakle, očigledno je da postoji problem sa numeričkom pismenošću,

because these are important skills for life,

jer su ovo važne životne veštine

and a lot of the changes that we want to introduce in this century

i mnoge promena koje želimo da uvedemo u ovom veku

involve us becoming more comfortable with numbers.

podrazumevaju da postanemo sigurniji sa brojevima.

To nije samo engleski problem.

Now, it's not just an English problem.

OECD this year released some figures looking at numeracy in young people,

Organizacija za ekonomsku saradnju i razvoj je objavila izvesne brojke

posmatrajući numeričku pismenost mladih,

and leading the way, the USA --

i predvodi SAD -

nearly 40 percent of young people in the US have low numeracy.

približno 40 posto mladih u SAD-u ima nizak nivo numeričke pismenosti.

Now, England is there too,

Engleska je takođe tu negde,

but there are seven OECD countries with figures above 20 percent.

ali postoji sedam zemalja OECD-a sa brojkama iznad 20 odsto.

To je problem, jer ne mora da bude tako.

That is a problem, because it doesn't have to be that way.

Ukoliko pogledate deo skroz na kraju ovog grafikona,

If you look at the far end of this graph,

možete videti da Holandija i Koreja imaju jednocifrene brojeve.

you can see the Netherlands and Korea are in single figures.

So there's definitely a numeracy problem that we want to address.

Dakle, definitivno postoji problem numeričke pismenosti

kojim želimo da se pozabavimo.

Now, as useful as studies like these are,

Koliko god da su korisne ovakve studije,

I think we risk herding people inadvertently into one of two categories;

mislim da rizikujemo da nehotice smestimo ljude u jednu od dve kategorije,

that there are two kinds of people:

da postoje dve vrste ljudi:

those people that are comfortable with numbers, that can do numbers,

oni kojima brojevi odgovaraju, koji umeju sa brojevima,

and the people who can't.

i ljudi koji ne umeju.

And what I'm trying to talk about here today

Ono o čemu pokušavam da govorim ovde danas

is to say that I believe that is a false dichotomy.

je da verujem da je to lažna dihotomija.

It's not an immutable pairing.

To nije nepromenljivo grupisanje.

I think you don't have to have tremendously high levels of numeracy

Smatram da ne morate imati užasno visok nivo numeričke pismenosti

to be inspired by numbers,

da bi vas inspirisali brojevi,

and that should be the starting point to the journey ahead.

i da to treba da bude polazna tačka za putovanje pred nama.

And one of the ways in which we can begin that journey, for me,

Jedan od načina na koje možemo započeti to putovanje, za mene,

is looking at statistics.

je sagledavanje statistike.

Now, I am the first to acknowledge that statistics has got somewhat

Prvi sam koji će priznati da statistika donekle ima

of an image problem.

problem sa imidžom.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It's the part of mathematics

To je deo matematike

that even mathematicians don't particularly like,

koji čak ni matematičari ne vole naročito,

because whereas the rest of maths is all about precision and certainty,

jer, dok se ostatak matematike potpuno svodi na preciznost i sigurnost,

statistics is almost the reverse of that.

statistika je gotovo suprotna tome.

But actually, I was a late convert to the world of statistics myself.

Zapravo, i sȃm sam kasno prešao u svet statistike.

If you'd asked my undergraduate professors

Da ste pitali moje profesore sa osnovnih studija

what two subjects would I be least likely to excel in after university,

za koja dva predmeta je najmanje verovatno da se istaknem u njima nakon univerziteta,

they'd have told you statistics and computer programming,

rekli bi vam da su to statistika i kompjutersko programiranje,

and yet here I am, about to show you some statistical graphics

a ipak, eto me, i uskoro ću vam pokazati neke statističke grafike

that I programmed.

koje sam programirao.

So what inspired that change in me?

Šta je inspirisalo tu promenu u meni?

What made me think that statistics was actually an interesting thing?

Šta me je navelo da pomislim da je statistika zapravo nešto zanimljivo?

Radi se o tome da se statistika zapravo odnosi na nas.

It's really because statistics are about us.

If you look at the etymology of the word statistics,

Ako pogledate etimologiju reči statistika,

it's the science of dealing with data

to je nauka bavljenja podacima

about the state or the community that we live in.

o državi ili zajednici u kojoj živimo.

So statistics are about us as a group,

Dakle, statistika se odnosi na nas kao grupu,

not us as individuals.

a ne kao na pojedince.

And I think as social animals,

Mislim da, kao društvene životinje,

we share this fascination about how we as individuals relate to our groups,

delimo fascinaciju prema načinu na koji se kao pojedinci odnosimo

to our peers.

prema našim grupama, prema nama jednakima.

And statistics in this way are at their most powerful

Statistika je na ovaj način najmoćnija

when they surprise us.

kada nas iznenadi.

And there's been some really wonderful surveys carried out recently

Neka zaista divna istraživanja je nedavno sprovela

organizacija Ipsos MORI poslednjih nekoliko godina.

by Ipsos MORI in the last few years.

They did a survey of over 1,000 adults in the UK,

Sproveli su ispitivanje na preko 1 000 odraslih u Britaniji

and said, for every 100 people in England and Wales,

i upitali: „Na svakih 100 osoba u Engleskoj i Velsu,

how many of them are Muslim?

koliko njih su muslimani?“

Now the average answer from this survey,

Prosečan odgovor iz ovog istraživanja,

which was supposed to be representative of the total population, was 24.

koji je trebalo da zastupa celu populaciju, bio je 24.

That's what people thought.

To je ono što su ljudi mislili.

British people think 24 out of every 100 people in the country are Muslim.

Britanci misle da su 24 osobe od svakih 100 u zemlji muslimani.

Now, official figures reveal that figure to be about five.

Zvanične brojke otkrivaju da je ta cifra oko pet.

So there's this big variation between what we think, our perception,

Dakle, postoji veliko odstupanje između onoga što mislimo, naše percepcije,

and the reality as given by statistics.

i stvarnosti koju iznosi statistika.

And I think that's interesting.

Smatram da je to zanimljivo.

Šta bi moglo biti to što stvara takvu pogrešnu percepciju?

What could possibly be causing that misperception?

Bio sam toliko oduševljen ovom studijom

And I was so thrilled with this study,

I started to take questions out in presentations. I was referring to it.

da sam počeo da iznosim pitanja u prezentacijama, pozivao sam se na nju.

Now, I did a presentation

Održao sam prezentaciju

at St. Paul's School for Girls in Hammersmith,

u školi za devojčice „Sv. Pavle“ u Hamersmitu

and I had an audience rather like this,

i imao sam publiku prilično sličnu ovoj,

osim što se sasvim sastojala od devojčica viših razreda.

except it was comprised entirely of sixth-form girls.

Pitao sam: „Devojke,

And I said, "Girls,

how many teenage girls do you think the British public think

šta mislite, koliko tinejdžerki britanska javnost smatra

get pregnant every year?"

da zatrudni svake godine?“

And the girls were apoplectic when I said

Šokirale su se kada sam rekao

the British public think that 15 out of every 100 teenage girls

da britanska javnost misli da 15 od svakih 100 tinejdžerki

zatrudni svake godine.

get pregnant in the year.

And they had every right to be angry,

Imale su svako pravo da budu ljute,

because in fact, I'd have to have closer to 200 dots

jer sam zapravo morao da se približim za 200 tački

before I could color one in,

da bih obojio jednu,

in terms of what the official figures tell us.

shodno onome što nam govore zvanični brojevi.

And rather like numeracy, this is not just an English problem.

Baš kao i sa numeričkom pismenošću, ovo nije samo engleski problem.

Ipsos MORI expanded the survey in recent years to go across the world.

Ipsos MORI je proširio istraživanje širom sveta poslednjih godina.

And so, they asked Saudi Arabians,

Tako, kada su upitali Saudijske Arape:

for every 100 adults in your country,

„Na svakih 100 odraslih osoba u vašoj zemlji,

how many of them are overweight or obese?

koliko njih je prekomerne težine ili gojazno?“

And the average answer from the Saudis was just over a quarter.

Prosečan odgovor Saudijskih Arapa bio je nešto više od četvrtine.

To su mislili.

That's what they thought.

Tek nešto više od četvrtine odraslih je prekomerne težine ili gojazno.

Just over a quarter of adults are overweight or obese.

The official figures show, actually, it's nearer to three-quarters.

Zvanične cifre zapravo pokazuju da je taj broj bliži tri četvrtine.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So again, a big variation.

Dakle, još jednom, veliko odstupanje.

And I love this one: they asked in Japan, they asked the Japanese,

Obožavam ovu - pitali su u Japanu, postavili su pitanje Japancima:

„Na svakih 100 japanskih stanovnika,

for every 100 Japanese people,

koliko njih živi u ruralnim područjima?“

how many of them live in rural areas?

The average was about a 50-50 split, just over halfway.

Prosek je bio podela na 50-50, nešto više od polovine.

They thought 56 out of every 100 Japanese people lived in rural areas.

Mislili su da 56 od svakih 100 Japanaca živi u ruralnim područjima.

The official figure is seven.

Zvanična cifra je sedam.

Dakle, izuzetna odstupanja i iznenađujuća za neke,

So extraordinary variations, and surprising to some,

but not surprising to people who have read the work

ali ne iznenađuju ljude koji su pročitali delo

of Daniel Kahneman, for example, the Nobel-winning economist.

Danijela Kanemana, na primer, ekonomiste i dobitnika Nobelove nagrade.

He and his colleague, Amos Tversky, spent years researching this disjoint

On i njegov kolega Amos Tverski proveli su godine istražujući razdor

between what people perceive and the reality,

između onog što ljudi opažaju i realnosti,

the fact that people are actually pretty poor intuitive statisticians.

činjenicu da su ljudi zapravo prilično loši intuitivni statističari.

And there are many reasons for this.

Postoji mnogo razloga za to.

Individualna iskustva, naravno, mogu uticati na našu percepciju,

Individual experiences, certainly, can influence our perceptions,

but so, too, can things like the media reporting things by exception,

ali i mediji koji izveštavaju o stvarima koje su izuzeci,

rather than what's normal.

češće nego o onome što je normalno.

Kahneman had a nice way of referring to that.

Kaneman je imao fin način da govori o tome.

He said, "We can be blind to the obvious" --

Rekao je: „Možemo biti slepi za očigledno“ -

so we've got the numbers wrong --

dakle, grešimo u brojevima -

"but we can be blind to our blindness about it."

„ali možemo biti slepi za naše slepilo u vezi sa time.“

And that has enormous repercussions for decision making.

A to ima ogromne posledice za donošenje odluka.

So at the statistics office while this was all going on,

U statističkoj kancelariji, dok se sve ovo dešavalo,

mislio sam da je to zaista zanimljivo.

I thought this was really interesting.

Rekoh, ovo je očigledno globalni problem,

I said, this is clearly a global problem,

ali možda geografija ovde predstavlja problem.

but maybe geography is the issue here.

These were questions that were all about, how well do you know your country?

Sva ta pitanja su se odnosila na to koliko dobro poznajete svoju zemlju.

So in this case, it's how well do you know 64 million people?

U ovom slučaju, to je koliko dobro poznajete 64 miliona ljudi.

Not very well, it turns out. I can't do that.

Ne baš dobro, ispostavilo se. Ne umem ja to.

So I had an idea,

Stoga sam dobio ideju,

which was to think about this same sort of approach

a to je bilo da razmišljam o istoj ovakvoj vrsti pristupa,

but to think about it in a very local sense.

ali da razmišljam o njemu u vrlo lokalnom smislu.

Is this a local?

Da li je ovo lokalno?

Ako preformulišemo pitanje i kažemo

If we reframe the questions and say,

koliko dobro poznajete svoje lokalno područje,

how well do you know your local area,

would your answers be any more accurate?

da li će odgovori biti išta tačniji?

So I devised a quiz:

Tako sam osmislio kviz

How well do you know your area?

koliko dobro poznajete svoj kraj.

It's a simple Web app.

To je jednostavna veb-aplikacija.

You put in a post code

Unesete poštanski broj

and then it will ask you questions based on census data

i zatim vam postavlja pitanja na osnovu popisnih podataka

for your local area.

za vašu lokalnu teritoriju.

And I was very conscious in designing this.

Veoma sam promišljeno ovo dizajnirao.

I wanted to make it open to the widest possible range of people,

Želeo sam da je učinim otvorenom za najširi mogući opseg ljudi,

not just the 49 percent who can get the numbers.

ne samo za 49 posto koji mogu da pogode projeve.

I wanted everyone to engage with it.

Želeo sam da se svi pozabave njome.

Pri dizajnu kviza,

So for the design of the quiz,

I was inspired by the isotypes

bio sam inspirisan izotipovima

of Otto Neurath from the 1920s and '30s.

Ota Nojrata iz '20-ih i '30-ih godina.

Now, these are methods for representing numbers

To su metode predstavljanja brojeva

using repeating icons.

korišćenjem ponavljanja ikona.

And the numbers are there, but they sit in the background.

Brojevi su tu, ali sede u pozadini.

So it's a great way of representing quantity

Zato je to sjajan način predstavljanja količine

without resorting to using terms like "percentage,"

bez pribegavanja korišćenju termina kao što su „procenat“,

"fractions" and "ratios."

„razlomci“ i „razmera“.

So here's the quiz.

Evo kviza.

The layout of the quiz is,

Postavka kviza je takva

you have your repeating icons on the left-hand side there,

da imate ikonice koje se ponavljaju tu na levoj strani

and a map showing you the area we're asking you questions about

i mapu koja vam pokazuje oblast o kojoj vam postavljamo pitanja

on the right-hand side.

na desnoj strani.

There are seven questions.

Postoji sedam pitanja.

Each question, there's a possible answer between zero and a hundred,

Za svako pitanje je moguć odgovor između nule i stotine,

and at the end of the quiz,

a na kraju kviza dobijate ukupan rezultat između nule i stotine.

you get an overall score between zero and a hundred.

And so because this is TEDxExeter,

A pošto je ovo TEDxExeter,

I thought we would have a quick look at the quiz

mislio sam da bacimo pogled na kviz

za prvih nekoliko pitanja o Egzeteru.

for the first few questions of Exeter.

And so the first question is:

Tako je prvo pitanje:

„Na svakih 100 ljudi, koliko njih je uzrasta ispod 16 godina?“

For every 100 people, how many are aged under 16?

Now, I don't know Exeter very well at all, so I had a guess at this,

Ja uopšte ne poznajem dobro Egzeter, pa sam morao da pogađam,

but it gives you an idea of how this quiz works.

ali daje vam predstavu o tome kako ovaj kviz funkcioniše.

You drag the slider to highlight your icons,

Prevučete klizač da biste označili svoje ikonice,

and then just click "Submit" to answer,

zatim samo kliknete „pošalji“ da biste odgovorili,

and we animate away the difference between your answer and reality.

i napravimo animaciju razlike između vašeg odgovora i stvarnosti.

And it turns out, I was a pretty terrible guess: five.

Ispostavilo se da sam dao prilično lošu pretpostavku: pet.

How about the next question?

A sledeće pitanje?

This is asking about what the average age is,

Ono pita koji je prosečni uzrast,

so the age at which half the population are younger

dakle, uzrast od koga je polovina populacije mlađa,

a polovina populacije je starija.

and half the population are older.

And I thought 35 -- that sounds middle-aged to me.

Pomislio sam da je 35 - to mi zvuči sredovečno.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Zapravo, u Egzeteru, to su neverovatno mlade godine,

Actually, in Exeter, it's incredibly young,

and I had underestimated the impact of the university in this area.

a ja sam potcenio uticaj univerziteta u ovoj oblasti.

The questions get harder as you go through.

Pitanja postaju sve teža dok prolazite kroz njih.

So this one's now asking about homeownership:

Ovo pita o vlasništvu nad kućama.

For every 100 households, how many are owned with a mortgage or loan?

Od svakih 100 domaćinstava,

koliko njih je u posedu uz hipoteku ili kredit?

And I hedged my bets here,

Ovde sam se ograničio ulog,

because I didn't want to be more than 50 out on the answer.

zato što nisam hteo da omašim odgovor za više od 50.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And actually, these get harder, these questions,

Zapravo, pitanja postaju teža

because when you're in an area, when you're in a community,

jer kada ste u nekom okruženju, kada ste u nekoj zajednici,

things like age -- there are clues to whether a population is old or young.

stvari poput godina - postoje naznake da li je stanovništvo mlado ili staro.

Just by looking around the area, you can see it.

Možete to videti samo razgledajući oblast.

Something like homeownership is much more difficult to see,

Nešto poput vlasništva nad kućama je mnogo teže videti,

so we revert to our own heuristics,

pa se okrećemo svojim heuristicima,

sopstvenim pristrasnostima

our own biases about how many people we think own their own homes.

o tome koliko ljudi mislimo da poseduje svoje domove.

Now the truth is, when we published this quiz,

Istina, kada smo objavili ova kviz,

the census data that it's based on was already a few years old.

popisni podaci na kojima je zasnovan bili su već stari nekoliko godina.

We've had online applications that allow you to put in a post code

Imali smo onlajn aplikaciju koja omogućava da unesete poštanski broj

and get statistics back for years.

i dobijete statistiku godinama unazad.

So in some senses,

Prema tome, na neki način,

this was all a little bit old and not necessarily new.

ovo je bilo pomalo zastarelo i ne nužno novo.

Ali me je interesovalo da vidim kakvu reakciju bismo mogli dobiti

But I was interested to see what reaction we might get

by gamifying the data in the way that we have,

pretvaranjem podataka u igru na način na koji smo to postigli,

by using animation

korišćenjem animacije

i poigravanjem činjenicom da ljudi imaju sopstvena predubeđenja.

and playing on the fact that people have their own preconceptions.

It turns out, the reaction was, um ...

Ispostavilo se da je reakcija

was more than I could have hoped for.

bila veća nego što sam se nadao.

It was a long-held ambition of mine to bring down a statistics website

Dugo je bila moja ambicija da srušim statistički veb-sajt

due to public demand.

zbog potražnje javnosti.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

This URL contains the words "statistics," "gov" and "UK,"

Ova veb-adresa sadrži reči „statistika“, „gov“ i „uk“,

which are three of people's least favorite words in a URL.

što su tri najmanje omiljene reči u jednoj veb-adresi.

And the amazing thing about this was that the website came down

Iznenađujuće je da je veb-sajt pao

at quarter to 10 at night,

u 15 do 10 noću,

because people were actually engaging with this data

jer su se ljudi zapravo bavili ovim podacima dobrovoljno,

of their own free will,

using their own personal time.

koristeći svoje lično vreme.

I was very interested to see

Bilo je veoma zanimljivo videti

da imamo oko četvrtine miliona ljudi

that we got something like a quarter of a million people

playing the quiz within the space of 48 hours of launching it.

koji igraju kviz u okviru od 48 sati od njegovog pokretanja.

To je izazvalo ogromne diskusije na internetu, na društvenim medijima,

And it sparked an enormous discussion online, on social media,

which was largely dominated

kojima su u velikoj meri dominirali

ljudi koji su se zabavljali sa svojim zabludama,

by people having fun with their misconceptions,

što je nešto najbolje čemu sam se mogao nadati,

which is something that I couldn't have hoped for any better,

in some respects.

u neku ruku.

I also liked the fact that people started sending it to politicians.

Takođe mi se dopala činjenica da su ljudi počeli da ga šalju političarima.

How well do you know the area you claim to represent?

Koliko dobro poznajete oblast koju tvrdite da zastupate?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And then just to finish,

Potom, samo za kraj,

going back to the two kinds of people,

ako se vratim na one dve vrste ljudi,

I thought it would be really interesting to see

pomislio sam da bi bilo zanimljivo videti

how people who are good with numbers would do on this quiz.

kako bi ljudi kojima dobro idu brojevi prošli na ovom kvizu.

The national statistician of England and Wales, John Pullinger,

Za nacionalnog statističara Engleske i Velsa, Džona Pulindžera,

you would expect he would be pretty good.

očekivali biste da će dobro proći.

He got 44 for his own area.

Dobio je 44 za sopstveni kraj.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Jeremy Paxman -- admittedly, after a glass of wine -- 36.

Džeremi Paksmen - doduše, posle čaše vina - 36.

Even worse.

Još gore.

It just shows you that the numbers can inspire us all.

To vam samo pokazuje da brojevi mogu inspirisati sve nas.

They can surprise us all.

Sve nas mogu iznenaditi.

So very often, we talk about statistics

Tako veoma često govorimo o statistici

as being the science of uncertainty.

kao o nauci o nesigurnosti.

My parting thought for today is:

Misao sa kojom ću se danas rastati od vas

actually, statistics is the science of us.

je da je statistika zapravo nauka o nama.

And that's why we should be fascinated by numbers.

Zato bi trebalo da budemo fascinirani brojevima.

Thank you very much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)