Why you should love statistics | Alan Smith

545,605 views ใƒป 2017-02-22

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Minji Jeong ๊ฒ€ํ† : Jihyeon J. Kim
00:12
Back in 2003,
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์ง€๋‚œ 2003๋…„
00:15
the UK government carried out a survey.
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์˜๊ตญ ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:19
And it was a survey that measured levels of numeracy
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ณ„๋กœ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ์กฐ์‚ฌ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:22
in the population.
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00:23
And they were shocked to find out
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์ ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:25
that for every 100 working age adults in the country,
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๋…ธ๋™ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋‚˜์ด์˜ ์ธ๊ตฌ 100๋ช… ๋‹น
00:28
47 of them lacked Level 1 numeracy skills.
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47๋ช…์ด 1๋‹จ๊ณ„๋„ ์ถฉ์กฑํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
00:32
Now, Level 1 numeracy skills -- that's low-end GCSE score.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ 1๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ž€ GCSE ์ ์ˆ˜ ์ค‘ ์ตœํ•˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:37
It's the ability to deal with fractions, percentages and decimals.
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๋ถ„์ˆ˜, ๋ฐฑ๋ถ„์œจ, ์†Œ์ˆ˜๋งŒ ๋‹ค๋ฃฐ ์ค„ ์•„๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
00:40
So this figure prompted a lot of hand-wringing in Whitehall.
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์ด ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ์˜๊ตญ ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ๋ฐœ๋ฒ—๊ณ  ๋‚˜์„ฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:45
Policies were changed,
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์ •์ฑ…์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๊ณ  ํˆฌ์ž๋„ ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
00:46
investments were made,
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00:48
and then they ran the survey again in 2011.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  2011๋…„์— ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๋‹ค์‹œ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:51
So can you guess what happened to this number?
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๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ์–ด๋• ์„๊นŒ์š”?
00:55
It went up to 49.
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์˜คํžˆ๋ ค 49๋กœ ์˜ฌ๋ž์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:57
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
00:58
And in fact, when I reported this figure in the FT,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ด ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ FT์— ๋ณด๊ณ ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
01:01
one of our readers joked and said,
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๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ์ฝ๊ณ  ๋†๋‹ด์„ ๋˜์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:02
"This figure is only shocking to 51 percent of the population."
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"๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ 51%ํ•œํ…Œ๋‚˜ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์ด๊ฒ ์ง€."
01:06
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
01:09
But I preferred, actually, the reaction of a schoolchild
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์ œ์ผ ๋ง˜์— ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์€ ํ•œ ํ•™์ƒ์˜ ๋ฐ˜์‘์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:12
when I presented at a school this information,
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ํ•™๊ต์— ์ด ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ์•Œ๋ ธ๋”๋‹ˆ
01:15
who raised their hand and said,
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ํ•™์ƒ ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ€ ์†์„ ๋“ค๋”๋‹ˆ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:16
"How do we know that the person who made that number
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"๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋‚ธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด
01:19
isn't one of the 49 percent either?"
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49%์— ์†ํ•˜๋ฉด ์–ด๋–กํ•ด์š”?"
01:21
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
01:22
So clearly, there's a numeracy issue,
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๋ถ„๋ช…ํ•œ๊ฑด ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
01:26
because these are important skills for life,
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์‚ด์•„๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋ฐ ์žˆ์–ด ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด๊ณ 
01:28
and a lot of the changes that we want to introduce in this century
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์•ž์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด๋‚ด๋ ค๋ฉด
01:32
involve us becoming more comfortable with numbers.
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๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ์ˆซ์ž๋ฅผ ์ž˜ ๋‹ค๋ฃฐ ์ค„ ์•Œ์•„์•ผ ํ•˜๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
01:35
Now, it's not just an English problem.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์˜๊ตญ๋งŒ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:36
OECD this year released some figures looking at numeracy in young people,
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์˜ฌํ•ด OECD๋Š” ์ Š์€์ด๋“ค์˜ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ์กฐ์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:41
and leading the way, the USA --
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๋จผ์ €, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ
01:44
nearly 40 percent of young people in the US have low numeracy.
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40% ์ •๋„๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฎ์€ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ณด์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:49
Now, England is there too,
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์˜๊ตญ๋„ ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:50
but there are seven OECD countries with figures above 20 percent.
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์ด์™ธ 7๊ฐœ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ 20% ์ด์ƒ์„ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:56
That is a problem, because it doesn't have to be that way.
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๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿด ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์—†์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
01:59
If you look at the far end of this graph,
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์ด ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„์˜ ๋์„ ๋ณด์‹œ๋ฉด
02:01
you can see the Netherlands and Korea are in single figures.
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๋„ค๋œ๋ž€๋“œ์™€ ํ•œ๊ตญ์€ ์ˆ˜์น˜๊ฐ€ ํ•œ์ž๋ฆฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:04
So there's definitely a numeracy problem that we want to address.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํ™•์‹คํžˆ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š” ์…ˆ์ด์ฃ .
02:09
Now, as useful as studies like these are,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ๋šœ๋ ท์ด ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋“ฏ
02:12
I think we risk herding people inadvertently into one of two categories;
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ๋‘๊ฐœ์˜ ํ•ญ๋ชฉ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์— ๋ชฐ์•„๋„ฃ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:17
that there are two kinds of people:
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„๋Š” ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ๊ธฐ์ค€์ด ์žˆ์ฃ .
02:19
those people that are comfortable with numbers, that can do numbers,
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์ˆซ์ž์— ์ต์ˆ™ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ณ„์‚ฐ์„ ์ž˜ ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ
02:23
and the people who can't.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ.
02:26
And what I'm trying to talk about here today
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฌ๋ ค ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
02:28
is to say that I believe that is a false dichotomy.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด ์ด๋ถ„๋ฒ•์˜ ๋ฌด์šฉํ•จ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:31
It's not an immutable pairing.
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์ด๊ฑด ๋ถˆ๋ณ€์˜ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:33
I think you don't have to have tremendously high levels of numeracy
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์ €๋Š” ์ˆซ์ž๋ฅผ ์œ ์šฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์“ฐ๋ ค๊ณ  ๋ชน์‹œ ๋›ฐ์–ด๋‚œ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ์ง€๋‹
02:36
to be inspired by numbers,
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ํ•„์š”๋Š” ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:38
and that should be the starting point to the journey ahead.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๊ธฐ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์—ฌ์ •์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:42
And one of the ways in which we can begin that journey, for me,
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๊ทธ ์—ฌํ–‰์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ์šฐ์„ 
02:46
is looking at statistics.
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ํ†ต๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์‚ดํŽด๋ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:48
Now, I am the first to acknowledge that statistics has got somewhat
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์ธ์ •ํ•˜์ž๋ฉด, ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์€
02:51
of an image problem.
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์ด๋ฏธ์ง€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:53
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
02:54
It's the part of mathematics
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ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์€ ์ˆ˜ํ•™์˜ ํ•œ ๋ถ„์•ผ์ธ๋ฐ
02:55
that even mathematicians don't particularly like,
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์ˆ˜ํ•™์ž๋“ค๋„ ๋ณ„๋กœ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:58
because whereas the rest of maths is all about precision and certainty,
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์™œ๋ƒ๋ฉด ์ˆ˜ํ•™์€ ๋Œ€์ฒด๋กœ ์ ํ™•๊ณผ ํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ์˜ ํ•™๋ฌธ์ธ๋ฐ
03:02
statistics is almost the reverse of that.
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ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์€ ๊ทธ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
03:05
But actually, I was a late convert to the world of statistics myself.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์ €๋Š” ๋’ค๋Šฆ๊ฒŒ ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์— ๋น ์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:10
If you'd asked my undergraduate professors
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์ œ ํ•™๋ถ€์‹œ์ ˆ ๊ต์ˆ˜๋‹˜๊ป˜
03:12
what two subjects would I be least likely to excel in after university,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์กธ์—… ํ›„ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋ชปํ•  ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ณผ๋ชฉ๋“ค์ด ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ์ง€ ๋ฌผ์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
03:17
they'd have told you statistics and computer programming,
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์•„๋งˆ ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™๊ณผ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋ž˜๋ฐ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๋‹ตํ•˜์…จ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:19
and yet here I am, about to show you some statistical graphics
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์˜ค๋Š˜ ์ด์ž๋ฆฌ์— ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ง์ ‘ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋ž˜๋ฐํ•œ ํ†ต๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋“ค๊ณ 
03:22
that I programmed.
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์„œ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:24
So what inspired that change in me?
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๋ฌด์—‡์ด ์ €๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊ฟจ์„๊นŒ์š”?
03:26
What made me think that statistics was actually an interesting thing?
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์™œ ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์— ํฅ๋ฏธ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ ๋œ ๊ฑธ๊นŒ์š”?
03:30
It's really because statistics are about us.
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ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ํ•™๋ฌธ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:32
If you look at the etymology of the word statistics,
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ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์˜ ์–ด์›์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด
03:35
it's the science of dealing with data
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ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์„ธ์ƒ์˜ ์ƒํƒœ
03:37
about the state or the community that we live in.
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์ง‘๋‹จ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋‹ค๋ฃจ๋Š” ๊ณผํ•™์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:40
So statistics are about us as a group,
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์ฆ‰, ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์€ ๊ฐœ์ธ์ด ์•„๋‹Œ
03:43
not us as individuals.
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์ง‘๋‹จ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:45
And I think as social animals,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š” ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๋™๋ฌผ๋กœ์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
03:46
we share this fascination about how we as individuals relate to our groups,
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๊ฐœ์ธ์œผ๋กœ์„œ ์ง‘๋‹จ์— ์†ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ข‹์•„ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:50
to our peers.
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๋™์ง€๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:52
And statistics in this way are at their most powerful
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ
03:55
when they surprise us.
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์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์„ ์ค„ ๋•Œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์ด ๊ฐ•ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:57
And there's been some really wonderful surveys carried out recently
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ตœ๊ทผ ์ฃผ๋ชฉํ• ๋งŒํ•œ ์„ค๋ฌธ ์กฐ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:00
by Ipsos MORI in the last few years.
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Ipsos MORI๊ฐ€ ๋ช‡๋…„ ๊ฐ„ ์‹คํ–‰ํ•œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:02
They did a survey of over 1,000 adults in the UK,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์˜๊ตญ ์„ฑ์ธ 1,000๋ช…์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฌผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:04
and said, for every 100 people in England and Wales,
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์ž‰๊ธ€๋žœ๋“œ์™€ ์›จ์ผ์ฆˆ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ 100๋ช… ์ค‘
04:08
how many of them are Muslim?
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๋ฌด์Šฌ๋ฆผ์€ ๋ช‡ ๋ช…์ด๋‚˜ ๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
04:10
Now the average answer from this survey,
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๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์ „์ฒด ์ธ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๋Š” ํ‰๊ท ๋Œ€๋‹ต์€
04:13
which was supposed to be representative of the total population, was 24.
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04:16
That's what people thought.
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24์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค ์ƒ๊ฐ์œผ๋ก  ๊ทธ๋žฌ๋˜ ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
04:20
British people think 24 out of every 100 people in the country are Muslim.
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์˜๊ตญ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ 100๋ช… ์ค‘ ๋ฌด์Šฌ๋ฆผ์€ 24๋ช…์ผ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ ์š”.
04:24
Now, official figures reveal that figure to be about five.
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๊ณต์‹ ์ˆ˜์น˜์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด 5๋ช…์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:29
So there's this big variation between what we think, our perception,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋Š๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ํ†ต๊ณ„ ์‚ฌ์ด์— ๊ฐ„๊ทน์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:33
and the reality as given by statistics.
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04:35
And I think that's interesting.
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์•„์ฃผ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กญ๊ฒŒ๋„ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
04:37
What could possibly be causing that misperception?
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๋ฌด์—‡์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์˜ค์ธ์„ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฑธ๊นŒ์š”?
04:41
And I was so thrilled with this study,
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์ €๋Š” ์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ํฅ๋ถ„ํ•ด
04:42
I started to take questions out in presentations. I was referring to it.
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๊ฐ•์—ฐ ๋•Œ๋งˆ๋‹ค ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ๋˜์ง€๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:46
Now, I did a presentation
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ํ•œ๋ฒˆ์€ ํ•ด๋จธ์Šค๋ฏธ์Šค์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์„ธ์ธํŠธํด ์—ฌํ•™๊ต์— ๊ฐ€์„œ
04:47
at St. Paul's School for Girls in Hammersmith,
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๊ฐ•์—ฐ์„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:49
and I had an audience rather like this,
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์ง€๊ธˆ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ ์•ž์ด์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
04:52
except it was comprised entirely of sixth-form girls.
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์ „๋ถ€ 6ํ•™๋…„ ์—ฌ์ž์•„์ด๋“ค์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:56
And I said, "Girls,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋งํ–ˆ์ฃ . "์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„,
04:59
how many teenage girls do you think the British public think
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์˜๊ตญ์‚ฌํšŒ๊ฐ€ ์˜๊ตญ์—์„œ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋งŽ์€ ์‹ญ๋Œ€ ์—ฌํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์ด
05:03
get pregnant every year?"
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์ž„์‹ ์„ ํ•œ๋‹ค ์ƒ๊ฐํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์š”?
05:05
And the girls were apoplectic when I said
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์—ฌํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์€ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์˜๊ตญ์‚ฌํšŒ๊ฐ€ 100๋ช…์˜ ์‹ญ๋Œ€ ์ฒญ์†Œ๋…„๋“ค ์ค‘ 15๋ช…์ด
05:09
the British public think that 15 out of every 100 teenage girls
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์ž„์‹ ์„ ํ•œ๋‹ค ์ƒ๊ฐํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
05:13
get pregnant in the year.
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๋ถ„๋…ธํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:15
And they had every right to be angry,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ํ™”๋‚ผ ๊ถŒ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ์žˆ์—ˆ์–ด์š”.
05:17
because in fact, I'd have to have closer to 200 dots
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์™œ๋ƒ๋ฉด ๊ณต์‹์ ์ธ ํ†ต๊ณ„์— ์˜ํ•˜๋ฉด
05:20
before I could color one in,
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ํ•œ๊ฐœ์˜ ์ ์„ ์ƒ‰์น ํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด
05:21
in terms of what the official figures tell us.
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200๊ฐœ์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ์ ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
05:24
And rather like numeracy, this is not just an English problem.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์˜๊ตญ๋งŒ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:28
Ipsos MORI expanded the survey in recent years to go across the world.
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Ipsos MORI๋Š” ์ตœ๊ทผ ์ด ์„ค๋ฌธ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์˜จ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋กœ ํ™•์žฅํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:32
And so, they asked Saudi Arabians,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ์šฐ๋”” ์•„๋ผ๋น„์•„ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฌผ์—ˆ์ฃ .
05:35
for every 100 adults in your country,
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๋‚˜๋ผ ์•ˆ์˜ ์„ฑ์ธ 100๋ช… ๋‹น
05:38
how many of them are overweight or obese?
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๋ช‡ ๋ช…์ด ๋น„๋งŒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์„ธ์š”?
05:42
And the average answer from the Saudis was just over a quarter.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ‰๊ท ์ ์ธ ๋Œ€๋‹ต์€ 4๋ถ„์˜ 1์„ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋„˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:48
That's what they thought.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
05:49
Just over a quarter of adults are overweight or obese.
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4๋ถ„์˜ 1๋ณด๋‹ค ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋น„๋งŒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ ์š”.
05:52
The official figures show, actually, it's nearer to three-quarters.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ๊ณต์‹์ ์ธ ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค 4๋ถ„์˜ 3์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:56
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
05:58
So again, a big variation.
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๋‹ค์‹œ, ์—„์ฒญ๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ํฐ ์ฐจ์ด์ฃ .
06:00
And I love this one: they asked in Japan, they asked the Japanese,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ์žฌ๋ฐŒ๋Š”๋ฐ: ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ผ๋ณธ์—์„œ ์ผ๋ณธ์ธ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฌผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:05
for every 100 Japanese people,
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์ผ๋ณธ์ธ๋“ค 100๋ช… ์ค‘
06:07
how many of them live in rural areas?
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๋ช‡ ๋ช…์ด ์‹œ๊ณจ์— ์‚ฐ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์š”?
06:10
The average was about a 50-50 split, just over halfway.
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ํ‰๊ท  ๋Œ€๋‹ต์€ ์•ฝ 50๋Œ€ 50์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋‰˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜ ์ •๋„๋กœ์š”.
06:15
They thought 56 out of every 100 Japanese people lived in rural areas.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ผ๋ณธ์ธ๋“ค 100๋ช… ์ค‘ 56๋ช…์ด ์‹œ๊ณจ์—์„œ ์‚ฐ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์–ด์š”.
06:19
The official figure is seven.
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๊ณต์‹์ ์ธ ํ†ต๊ณ„๋Š” 7๋ช…์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:22
So extraordinary variations, and surprising to some,
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์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ์ฐจ์ด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ๋†€๋ž์ง€๋งŒ
06:26
but not surprising to people who have read the work
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด ๋…ธ๋ฒจ์ƒ ์ˆ˜์ƒ์ž์ธ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž ๋‹ค๋‹ˆ์—˜ ์นด๋„ค๋งŒ์˜ ์ €์ž‘๋ฌผ์„
06:28
of Daniel Kahneman, for example, the Nobel-winning economist.
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์ด๋ฏธ ์ฝ์—ˆ๋˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ๋†€๋ž์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:33
He and his colleague, Amos Tversky, spent years researching this disjoint
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๊ทธ์™€ ๊ทธ์˜ ๋™๋ฃŒ ์•„๋ชจ์Šค ํŠธ๋ฒ„์Šคํ‚ค๋Š” ์ˆ˜๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ
์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ธ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ์‹ค์ œ์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๋ฅผ ์—ฐ๊ตฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:38
between what people perceive and the reality,
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06:41
the fact that people are actually pretty poor intuitive statisticians.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ง๊ด€์ ์ธ ํ†ต๊ณ„์— ์•ฝํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„์š”.
06:45
And there are many reasons for this.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ๋งŽ์€ ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:47
Individual experiences, certainly, can influence our perceptions,
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๊ฐœ์ธ์˜ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์€ ๋‹น์—ฐํžˆ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ธ์‹์„ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ€ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ 
06:50
but so, too, can things like the media reporting things by exception,
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๋ช‡๋ช‡ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค๋งŒ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ€์ค‘๋งค์ฒด๋“ค๋„
06:54
rather than what's normal.
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์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ผ์น  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:56
Kahneman had a nice way of referring to that.
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์นด๋„ค๋งŒ์€ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์นญํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:58
He said, "We can be blind to the obvious" --
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"์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‹น์—ฐํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์ง€ ๋ชปํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค."
07:00
so we've got the numbers wrong --
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ˆซ์ž๋ฅผ ๋งž์ถ”์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์ฃ .
07:02
"but we can be blind to our blindness about it."
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"ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋งน๋ชฉ์„ ๋ณด์ง€ ๋ชปํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค."
07:04
And that has enormous repercussions for decision making.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•  ๋•Œ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ผ์น  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:08
So at the statistics office while this was all going on,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์„ ๋•Œ
07:11
I thought this was really interesting.
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ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ์—์„œ ์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๋งค์šฐ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กญ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:13
I said, this is clearly a global problem,
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ถ„๋ช…ํ•œ ์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์ธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ–ˆ๊ณ 
07:15
but maybe geography is the issue here.
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์ง€๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:17
These were questions that were all about, how well do you know your country?
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๋ชจ๋“  ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ž์‹ ์˜ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋ฅผ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์ž˜ ์•„๋Š”๊ฐ€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:21
So in this case, it's how well do you know 64 million people?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด 6์ฒœ 4๋ฐฑ๋ช…์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์•Œ๊นŒ์š”?
07:25
Not very well, it turns out. I can't do that.
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ์˜ํ•˜๋ฉด ์ž˜ ๋ชจ๋ฅด์ฃ .
07:28
So I had an idea,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ํ•œ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:29
which was to think about this same sort of approach
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๊ฐ™์€ ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ ‘๊ทผํ•˜๋˜,
07:32
but to think about it in a very local sense.
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์ง€์—ญ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋งŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:34
Is this a local?
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์ด๊ฒŒ ์ง€์—ญ์ ์ธ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
07:36
If we reframe the questions and say,
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์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ๊ณ ์ณ์„œ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ž˜ ์•„๋ƒ๊ณ 
07:38
how well do you know your local area,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋ฌป๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด
07:40
would your answers be any more accurate?
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๋Œ€๋‹ต์ด ๋” ์ •ํ™•ํ•ด ์งˆ๊นŒ์š”?
07:43
So I devised a quiz:
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ํ€ด์ฆˆ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:45
How well do you know your area?
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๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์ž˜ ์•„๋‚˜์š”?
07:48
It's a simple Web app.
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๋งค์šฐ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•œ ์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท ์•ฑ์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
07:50
You put in a post code
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์šฐํŽธ๋ฒˆํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ์ž…๋ ฅํ•˜๊ณ 
07:51
and then it will ask you questions based on census data
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๊ทธ ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ์ธ๊ตฌ ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์ง„
07:54
for your local area.
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์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค์„ ๋ฌป์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:56
And I was very conscious in designing this.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฑธ ๋งŒ๋“ค ๋•Œ
07:58
I wanted to make it open to the widest possible range of people,
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์ตœ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํฐ ๋ฒ”์œ„์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์—ด๋ ค์žˆ๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋ ค ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:02
not just the 49 percent who can get the numbers.
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๊ณ„์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ–๊ณ ์žˆ๋Š” 49% ๋ฟ๋งŒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
08:05
I wanted everyone to engage with it.
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๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ฐธ์—ฌํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋žฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:07
So for the design of the quiz,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด ํ€ด์ฆˆ๋ฅผ ๋””์ž์ธํ•  ๋•Œ,
08:08
I was inspired by the isotypes
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1920๋…„๋„์™€ 1930๋…„๋„์˜ ์˜คํ†  ๋Š๋ผํŠธ์˜
08:12
of Otto Neurath from the 1920s and '30s.
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๋™์œ„ ์›์†Œ์— ์˜ํ•ด ์˜๊ฐ์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:14
Now, these are methods for representing numbers
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์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต๋˜๋Š” ์•„์ด์ฝ˜์„ ์ด์šฉํ•œ
์ˆซ์ž๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:19
using repeating icons.
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08:21
And the numbers are there, but they sit in the background.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ˆซ์ž๋“ค์€ ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์—๋งŒ ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:24
So it's a great way of representing quantity
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'"ํผ์„ผํŠธ," "๋ถ„์ˆ˜" ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  "๋น„์œจ" ๊ฐ™์€ ์šฉ์–ด๋“ค์„
08:27
without resorting to using terms like "percentage,"
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์“ฐ์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ์–‘์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๋Š”
08:30
"fractions" and "ratios."
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์ข‹์€ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด์ฃ .
08:31
So here's the quiz.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒŒ ํ€ด์ฆˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:34
The layout of the quiz is,
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ํ€ด์ฆˆ์˜ ๋ฐฐ์น˜๋Š”
08:35
you have your repeating icons on the left-hand side there,
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์™ผ ์ชฝ์— ๋ฐ˜๋ณต๋˜๋Š” ์•„์ด์ฝ˜๋“ค์ด ์žˆ๊ณ 
08:38
and a map showing you the area we're asking you questions about
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌป๋Š” ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค์˜ ์ง€์—ญ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ์ง€๋„๊ฐ€
08:41
on the right-hand side.
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์˜ค๋ฅธ์ชฝ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:42
There are seven questions.
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7๊ฐœ์˜ ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:44
Each question, there's a possible answer between zero and a hundred,
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๊ฐ๊ฐ์˜ ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค์€ 0์—์„œ 100์ค‘์— ๋‹ต์„ ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:48
and at the end of the quiz,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ€ด์ฆˆ์˜ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์—๋Š”
08:49
you get an overall score between zero and a hundred.
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0์—์„œ 100์ค‘์˜ ์ตœ์ข… ์ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:52
And so because this is TEDxExeter,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ TEDxExeter์ด๋‹ˆ๊นŒ
08:54
I thought we would have a quick look at the quiz
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Exeter์—๊ด€ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค ๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณผ๊นŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:57
for the first few questions of Exeter.
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08:59
And so the first question is:
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์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š”
09:01
For every 100 people, how many are aged under 16?
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100๋ช…์ค‘ ๋ช‡๋ช…์ด 16์„ธ ์ดํ•˜์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
09:04
Now, I don't know Exeter very well at all, so I had a guess at this,
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์ €๋Š” Exeter์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ž˜ ๋ชจ๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ์ถ”์ธก์„ ํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.
09:08
but it gives you an idea of how this quiz works.
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๊ทธ์น˜๋งŒ ์ด ํ€ด์ฆˆ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€๋Š” ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ์ฃ .
09:10
You drag the slider to highlight your icons,
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์Šฌ๋ผ์ด๋”๋ฅผ ์›€์ง์—ฌ์„œ ์•„์ด์ฝ˜์„ ์ƒ‰์น ํ•˜๊ณ 
09:14
and then just click "Submit" to answer,
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"์ œ์ถœํ•˜๊ธฐ"๋ฅผ ๋ˆŒ๋Ÿฌ ๋‹ต์„ ์ œ์ถœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:16
and we animate away the difference between your answer and reality.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ๋‹ต๊ณผ ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ๊ตฌ๋ถ„์‹œ์ผœ์ฃผ์ฃ .
09:20
And it turns out, I was a pretty terrible guess: five.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  5๋ช…์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ–ˆ๋˜ ์ œ ์ถ”์ธก์€ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ํ‹€๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:24
How about the next question?
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๋‹ค์Œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์–ด๋–จ๊นŒ์š”?
09:26
This is asking about what the average age is,
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์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ํ‰๊ท  ๋‚˜์ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋ฌป์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:28
so the age at which half the population are younger
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์ธ๊ตฌ์˜ ๋ฐ˜์ด ๋‚˜์ด๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ๊ณ  ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ๋ฐ˜์ด ๋‚˜์ด๊ฐ€ ์ ์„ ๋•Œ
09:31
and half the population are older.
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ํ‰๊ท  ๋‚˜์ด๋ฅผ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:32
And I thought 35 -- that sounds middle-aged to me.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š” 35์‚ด์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค- ์ €ํ•œํ…Œ๋Š” ๊ฝค ์ค‘๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ™์ด ๋“ค๋ ธ๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
09:36
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
09:40
Actually, in Exeter, it's incredibly young,
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ Exeter์˜ ํ‰๊ท ๋‚˜์ด๋Š” ์—„์ฒญ ์–ด๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:42
and I had underestimated the impact of the university in this area.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š” ์ด ์ง€์—ญ ๋Œ€ํ•™๋“ค์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
09:46
The questions get harder as you go through.
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์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค์€ ๊ฑฐ์น ์ˆ˜๋ก ๋” ์–ด๋ ค์›Œ์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:48
So this one's now asking about homeownership:
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์ด๋ฒˆ์—๋Š” ์žํƒ์†Œ์œ ์— ๊ด€ํ•ด ๋ฌป๊ณ ์žˆ๋„ค์š”.
09:51
For every 100 households, how many are owned with a mortgage or loan?
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100๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ฐ€์ •๋“ค ์ค‘์— ๋ช‡๊ฐœ๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€์ถœ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ง‘์„ ์†Œ์œ ํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
09:55
And I hedged my bets here,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š” ๋‹ต์„ ์–ผ๋ฒ„๋ฌด๋ ธ์–ด์š”.
09:56
because I didn't want to be more than 50 out on the answer.
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์™œ๋ƒ๋ฉด ์ง„์งœ ๋‹ต๊ณผ 50์ด์ƒ ์ฐจ์ด๋‚˜๊ธฐ ์‹ซ์—ˆ๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
09:59
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
10:01
And actually, these get harder, these questions,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์ด ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค์€ ๋”์šฑ ์–ด๋ ค์›Œ์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:04
because when you're in an area, when you're in a community,
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์™œ๋ƒ๋ฉด ์ง€์—ญ์‚ฌํšŒ์— ์†ํ•ด์žˆ์„ ๋•Œ
10:07
things like age -- there are clues to whether a population is old or young.
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๋‚˜์ด๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ์ธ๊ตฌ ๋‚˜์ด๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋ฆฐ์ง€ ์–ด๋ฆฌ์ง€ ์•Š์€์ง€ ํžŒํŠธ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
10:12
Just by looking around the area, you can see it.
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๊ทธ์ € ์ฃผ๋ณ€์„ ๋‘˜๋Ÿฌ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ๋„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:14
Something like homeownership is much more difficult to see,
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์žํƒ์†Œ์œ  ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ์•Œ๊ธฐ ๋” ์–ด๋ ต์ฃ .
10:18
so we revert to our own heuristics,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋งŒ์˜ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ๋ฒ•์„ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:21
our own biases about how many people we think own their own homes.
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์žํƒ์„ ์†Œ์œ ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
10:25
Now the truth is, when we published this quiz,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด ํ€ด์ฆˆ๋ฅผ ๊ณต๊ฐœํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
10:29
the census data that it's based on was already a few years old.
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์ด๋ฏธ ๋ช‡๋…„์ด ์ง€๋‚œ ์ธ๊ตฌ ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ–ˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:32
We've had online applications that allow you to put in a post code
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์šฐํŽธ๋ฒˆํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ๋„ฃ๋Š” ์˜จ๋ผ์ธ ์•ฑ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ
10:36
and get statistics back for years.
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ํ†ต๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:38
So in some senses,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ
10:39
this was all a little bit old and not necessarily new.
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ตœ๊ทผ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์ง€๋งŒ ๋งŽ์ด ์˜ค๋ž˜๋˜์ง„ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:43
But I was interested to see what reaction we might get
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ์• ๋‹ˆ๋ฉ”์ด์…˜๊ณผ
10:46
by gamifying the data in the way that we have,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ์ž์˜ ์„ ์ž…๊ฒฌ์„ ๊ฐ–๊ณ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ์ด์šฉํ•ด
10:49
by using animation
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์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๊ฒŒ์ž„ํ™” ์‹œํ‚จ๋‹ค๋ฉด
10:51
and playing on the fact that people have their own preconceptions.
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์–ด๋–ค ๋ฐ˜์‘์„ ์ผ์œผํ‚ฌ์ง€ ๊ถ๊ธˆํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:55
It turns out, the reaction was, um ...
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๊ทธ ๋ฐ˜์‘์€ ์Œ...
11:00
was more than I could have hoped for.
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ์—„์ฒญ๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:02
It was a long-held ambition of mine to bring down a statistics website
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์ €๋Š” ์˜ค๋žซ๋™์•ˆ ๋Œ€์ค‘๋“ค์˜ ์š”๊ตฌ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด
11:05
due to public demand.
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ํ†ต๊ณ„ ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋ฅผ ํ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•ผ๋ง์œผ๋กœ ํ’ˆ์–ด์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:06
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
11:08
This URL contains the words "statistics," "gov" and "UK,"
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์ด ์›น์ฃผ์†Œ๋Š” "ํ†ต๊ณ„," "์ •๋ถ€" ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  "์˜๊ตญ"์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋‹จ์–ด๋“ค, ์ฆ‰ ์›น์ฃผ์†Œ์—
11:12
which are three of people's least favorite words in a URL.
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์“ฐ์ด๋Š” ๋‹จ์–ด๋“ค ์ค‘ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์‹ซ์–ดํ•˜๋Š” ์„ธ ๊ฐœ์˜ ๋‹จ์–ด๋“ค์ด ํฌํ•จ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:15
And the amazing thing about this was that the website came down
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋†€๋ผ์šด ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๊ฐ€
11:19
at quarter to 10 at night,
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๋ฐค 10์‹œ๊ฐ€ ๋˜๊ธฐ 15๋ถ„ ์ „์— ํ์ง€๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:21
because people were actually engaging with this data
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ž์‹ ๋“ค์˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์จ๊ฐ€๋ฉด์„œ
11:24
of their own free will,
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์ด ์ž๋ฃŒ๋“ค์— ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ์Ÿ๋Š”
11:26
using their own personal time.
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์„ ํƒ์„ ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
11:28
I was very interested to see
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์ €๋Š” ํ€ด์ฆˆ๋ฅผ ๊ณต๊ฐœํ•œ์ง€ 48์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋งŒ์—
11:31
that we got something like a quarter of a million people
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์•ฝ 25๋งŒ ๋ช… ์ •๋„์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด๊ณ 
11:34
playing the quiz within the space of 48 hours of launching it.
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๋งค์šฐ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์›Œ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:38
And it sparked an enormous discussion online, on social media,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์˜จ๋ผ์ธ ์ƒ๊ณผ ์†Œ์…œ ๋ฏธ๋””์–ด ์ƒ์—์„œ
11:41
which was largely dominated
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์ž์‹ ๋“ค์˜ ์˜ค์ธ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์žฌ๋ฏธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋Œ€๋‹ค์ˆ˜์˜€๋˜
11:44
by people having fun with their misconceptions,
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ํฐ ๋…ผ์Ÿ์„ ์ผ์œผ์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:48
which is something that I couldn't have hoped for any better,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋” ๋ฐ”๋ž„ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์—†๋˜ ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด๋ผ๊ณ ๋„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:51
in some respects.
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ณด๋ฉด์š”.
11:52
I also liked the fact that people started sending it to politicians.
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์ €๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ์ •์น˜์ธ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋ณด๋‚ด๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ข‹์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:55
How well do you know the area you claim to represent?
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์ž์‹ ๋“ค์ด ๋Œ€ํ‘œํ•˜๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋งŽ์ด ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
11:58
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
11:59
And then just to finish,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ
12:01
going back to the two kinds of people,
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๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์–˜๊ธฐ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€์ž๋ฉด
12:04
I thought it would be really interesting to see
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์ €๋Š” ์ˆซ์ž์— ๋Šฅํ†ตํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ด ํ€ด์ฆˆ์—์„œ
12:06
how people who are good with numbers would do on this quiz.
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์ž˜ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ๊ถ๊ธˆํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:09
The national statistician of England and Wales, John Pullinger,
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์˜๊ตญ๊ณผ ์›จ์ผ์Šค์˜ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์ž์ธ ์กด ํ’€๋ง๊ฑฐ๋Š”
12:12
you would expect he would be pretty good.
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์—„์ฒญ ์ž˜ ๋ณผ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•˜๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ
12:15
He got 44 for his own area.
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์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ง€์—ญ์— 44์ ์„ ๋งž์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:17
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
12:20
Jeremy Paxman -- admittedly, after a glass of wine -- 36.
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์ œ๋ ˆ๋ฏธ ํŒ์Šค๋งจ์€-์‚ฌ์‹ค ์™€์ธ ํ•œ ์ž”์„ ํ•˜๊ณ ๋‚œ ๋’ค์˜€์ง€๋งŒ- 36์ ์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:25
Even worse.
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๋” ๋‚˜์œ ์ ์ˆ˜์ฃ .
12:27
It just shows you that the numbers can inspire us all.
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์ด ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ˆซ์ž๊ฐ€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฒฉ๋ คํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:30
They can surprise us all.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋†€๋ผ๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:31
So very often, we talk about statistics
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํ†ต๊ณ„์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์˜ ๊ณผํ•™์ด๋ผ๊ณ 
12:33
as being the science of uncertainty.
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์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:35
My parting thought for today is:
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:37
actually, statistics is the science of us.
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ํ†ต๊ณ„๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ณผํ•™์ด๋ผ๊ณ .
12:40
And that's why we should be fascinated by numbers.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ˆซ์ž์— ๋งค๋ฃŒ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:43
Thank you very much.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:44
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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