Bruce Aylward: Humanity vs. Ebola. The winning strategies in a terrifying war

40,667 views ・ 2015-02-03

TED


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00:00
Translator: Eriko T Reviewer: Morton Bast
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Prevodilac: Ljiljana Colic Lektor: Ivana Korom
00:12
When I was invited to give this talk a couple of months ago,
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Kada su me pozvali da održim ovaj govor pre par meseci,
00:17
we discussed a number of titles with the organizers,
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razmotrili smo nekoliko naslova sa organizatorima,
00:20
and a lot of different items were kicked around and were discussed.
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i raspravljalo se i diskutovalo o mnogim različitim stvarima.
00:24
But nobody suggested this one,
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Ali niko nije predložio ovaj,
00:26
and the reason for that was two months ago,
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a razlog tome je što je pre dva meseca
00:29
Ebola was escalating exponentially
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izbila velika epidemija ebole
00:32
and spreading over wider geographic areas than we had ever seen,
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i širila se preko većih geografskih područja nego što smo ranije videli,
00:36
and the world was terrified, concerned and alarmed
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i svet je bio prestravljen, zabrinut i uznemiren ovom bolešću,
00:39
by this disease, in a way we've not seen in recent history.
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na način koji nismo videli u skoroj istoriji.
00:44
But today, I can stand here and I can talk to you about beating Ebola
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Ali danas, ja mogu da stojim ovde i da vam govorim o pobedi nad ebolom
00:50
because of people whom you've never heard of,
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zbog ljudi za koje nikad niste čuli,
00:54
people like Peter Clement, a Liberian doctor who's working in Lofa County,
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ljudi poput Pitera Klementa, liberijskog lekara koji radi u okrugu Lofa,
01:01
a place that many of you have never heard of, probably, in Liberia.
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mestu u Liberiji za koje verovatno mnogi od vas nikad nisu čuli.
01:07
The reason that Lofa County is so important
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Razlog zašto je okrug Lofa tako važan
01:09
is because about five months ago,
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je zato što je pre oko pet meseci,
01:12
when the epidemic was just starting to escalate,
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kada je epidemija tek počela da se širi,
01:16
Lofa County was right at the center, the epicenter of this epidemic.
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okrug Lofa bio tačno u središtu, u epicentru epidemije.
01:21
At that time, MSF and the treatment center there,
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Za to vreme, Lekari bez granica i tamošnji centar za lečenje
01:25
they were seeing dozens of patients every single day,
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su pregledali desetine pacijenata svakog dana,
01:28
and these patients, these communities were becoming more and more terrified
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i u tim pacijentima, u tim zajednicama je vremenom strah od te bolesti
01:32
as time went by, with this disease and what it was doing to their families,
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postajao sve veći, i od toga šta ona čini njihovim porodicama,
01:36
to their communities, to their children, to their relatives.
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njihovim zajednicama, njihovoj deci, njihovim rođacima.
01:40
And so Peter Clement was charged with driving that 12-hour-long rough road
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I tako je Piter Klement dobio zadatak da pređe taj neravan put od 12 sati
01:45
from Monrovia, the capital, up to Lofa County,
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od glavnog grada, Monrovije, do okruga Lofa,
01:49
to try and help bring control to the escalating epidemic there.
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da tamo pokuša da rastuću epidemiju dovede pod kontrolu.
01:53
And what Peter found when he arrived was the terror that I just mentioned to you.
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Kad je stigao, Piter je zatekao užas koji sam vam upravo spomenuo.
01:59
So he sat down with the local chiefs, and he listened.
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Tako je on seo sa tamošnjim poglavicama, i slušao.
02:03
And what he heard was heartbreaking.
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A ono što je čuo je bilo srceparajuće.
02:06
He heard about the devastation and the desperation
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Čuo je o razorenosti i očajanju
02:11
of people affected by this disease.
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ljudi koji su pogođeni ovom bolešću.
02:14
He heard the heartbreaking stories
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Čuo je srceparajuće priče
02:16
about not just the damage that Ebola did to people,
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ne samo o šteti koju je ebola nanela ljudima,
02:20
but what it did to families and what it did to communities.
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nego i o tome šta je uradila porodicama i šta je uradila zajednicama.
02:24
And he listened to the local chiefs there and what they told him --
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I slušao je tamošnje mesne poglavice i ono što su mu pričali -
02:28
They said, "When our children are sick, when our children are dying,
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Rekli su: "Kada su nam deca bolesna, kada nam deca umiru,
02:32
we can't hold them at a time when we want to be closest to them.
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ne možemo da ih držimo onda kada najviše želimo da budemo uz njih.
02:36
When our relatives die, we can't take care of them as our tradition demands.
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Kada nam rođaci umru, ne možemo da se pobrinemo za njih kako tradicija nalaže.
02:40
We are not allowed to wash the bodies to bury them
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Nije nam dozvoljeno da okupamo tela, da ih sahranimo
02:43
the way our communities and our rituals demand.
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onako kako naša zajednica i naši rituali nalažu."
02:46
And for this reason, they were deeply disturbed, deeply alarmed
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I zbog toga su bili duboko potrešeni, duboko uznemireni
02:50
and the entire epidemic was unraveling in front of them.
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i čitava epidemija se odvijala pred njima.
02:53
People were turning on the healthcare workers who had come,
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Ljudi su se obraćali zdravstvenim radnicima koji su došli,
02:56
the heroes who had come to try and help save the community,
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herojima koji su došli sa pokušaju da spasu zajednicu,
03:00
to help work with the community, and they were unable to access them.
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da pomognu u radu sa zajednicom, a nisu bili u mogućnosti da im priđu.
03:05
And what happened then was Peter explained to the leaders.
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I onda je Piter sve objasnio poglavarima.
03:10
The leaders listened. They turned the tables.
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Poglavari su slušali. Situacija se promenila.
03:13
And Peter explained what Ebola was. He explained what the disease was.
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Piter je objasnio šta je to ebola. Objasnio je šta je ta bolest.
03:16
He explained what it did to their communities.
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Objasnio je šta ona čini njihovim zajednicama.
03:19
And he explained that Ebola threatened everything that made us human.
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Rekao je da ebola preti svemu što nas čini ljudskim bićima.
03:24
Ebola means you can't hold your children the way you would in this situation.
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Ebola znači da ne možete zagrliti svoju decu onako kako biste to uradili
u ovakvoj situaciji.
03:28
You can't bury your dead the way that you would.
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Ne možete sahraniti svoje mrtve onako kako biste to inače uradili.
03:30
You have to trust these people in these space suits to do that for you.
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Sve to morate poveriti ovim ljudima u ovim svemirskim odelima.
03:35
And ladies and gentlemen, what happened then was rather extraordinary:
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Dame i gospodo, ono što je usledilo je prilično izvanredno:
03:38
The community and the health workers, Peter, they sat down together
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zajednica, zdravstveni radnici i Piter su seli zajedno
03:42
and they put together a new plan for controlling Ebola in Lofa County.
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i sastavili su novi plan za kontrolisanje ebole u okrugu Lofa.
03:47
And the reason that this is such an important story, ladies and gentlemen,
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A razlog zašto je ovo tako važna priča, dame i gospodo,
03:51
is because today, this county, which is right at the center of this epidemic
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jeste zato što danas, ovaj okrug koji je u centru epidemije
03:56
you've been watching, you've been seeing in the newspapers,
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koju ste pratili, koju ste gledali u novinama,
03:59
you've been seeing on the television screens,
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koju ste gledali na televizijskim ekranima,
04:03
today Lofa County is nearly eight weeks without seeing a single case of Ebola.
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danas okrug Lofa beleži skoro osam nedelja bez ijednog slučaja ebole.
04:09
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
04:16
Now, this doesn't mean that the job is done, obviously.
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Ali ovo naravno ne znači da je posao obavljen.
04:19
There's still a huge risk that there will be additional cases there.
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I dalje postoji ogroman rizik da će tamo biti dodatnih slučajeva.
04:23
But what it does teach us is that Ebola can be beaten.
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Ali ono čemu nas uči jeste to da se ebola može pobediti.
04:26
That's the key thing.
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To je ključna stvar.
04:28
Even on this scale,
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Čak i u ovim razmerama,
04:29
even with the rapid kind of growth that we saw in this environment here,
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čak i sa brzim rastom koji smo videli u ovom okruženju,
04:33
we now know Ebola can be beaten.
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sada znamo da se ebola može pobediti.
04:36
When communities come together with health care workers, work together,
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Kada se zajednice udruže sa zdravstvenim radnicima, kada rade zajedno,
04:40
that's when this disease can be stopped.
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upravo tada se ova bolest može zaustaviti.
04:43
But how did Ebola end up in Lofa County in the first place?
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Ali kako je ebola prvobitno završila u okrugu Lofa?
04:46
Well, for that, we have to go back 12 months, to the start of this epidemic.
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Pa, da bismo to objasnili, moramo se vratiti 12 meseci do početka epidemije.
04:51
And as many of you know, this virus went undetected,
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I kao što mnogi od vas znaju, ovaj virus je bio neprimetan,
04:54
it evaded detection for three or four months when it began.
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nije bio primećen tri ili četiri meseca otkad je počeo.
04:58
That's because this is not a disease of West Africa,
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Zato što ovo nije bolest Zapadne Afrike,
05:01
it's a disease of Central Africa, half a continent away.
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već je bolest Centralne Afrike, udaljena za pola kontinenta.
05:04
People hadn't seen the disease before;
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Ljudi nisu nikad pre videli ovu bolest;
05:06
health workers hadn't seen the disease before.
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zdravstveni radnici nisu nikad pre videli ovu bolest.
05:09
They didn't know what they were dealing with,
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Nisu znali sa čim imaju posla,
05:11
and to make it even more complicated,
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i ono što još više komplikuje stvari,
05:13
the virus itself was causing a symptom, a type of a presentation
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sam virus je izazivao simptom, manifestovao se u obliku
05:17
that wasn't classical of the disease.
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koji nije bio primeren ovoj bolesti.
05:20
So people didn't even recognize the disease, people who knew Ebola.
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Tako da ljudi koji su znali za ebolu, nisu uopšte prepoznali bolest.
05:24
For that reason it evaded detection for some time,
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Iz tog razloga je neko vreme nisu mogli primetiti.
05:28
But contrary to public belief sometimes these days,
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Ali suprotno mišljenju javnosti ovih dana,
05:31
once the virus was detected, there was a rapid surge in of support.
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kada je virus otkriven, nastao je ubrzan priliv pomoći.
05:37
MSF rapidly set up an Ebola treatment center, as many of you know, in the area.
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LBG su, kao što mnogi od vas znaju, brzo osposobili centar za lečenje ebole
u tom području.
05:42
The World Health Organization and the partners that it works with
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Svetska zdravstvena organizacija i njeni partneri
05:45
deployed eventually hundreds of people over the next two months
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su za sledeća dva meseca zaposlili stotine ljudi
05:49
to be able to help track the virus.
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koji su pomagali u praćenju virusa.
05:51
The problem, ladies and gentlemen, is by then, this virus,
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Problem je, dame i gospodo, što se ovaj virus,
05:55
well known now as Ebola, had spread too far.
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sada dobro poznat kao ebola, do tada predaleko proširio.
05:58
It had already outstripped what was one of the largest responses
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Premašio je jedan od najvećih odziva
06:02
that had been mounted so far to an Ebola outbreak.
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na izbijanje ebole do sad.
06:05
By the middle of the year, not just Guinea
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Do polovine godine, nije samo Gvineja bila zaražena
06:08
but now Sierra Leone and Liberia were also infected.
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već i Sijera Leone i Liberija.
06:12
As the virus was spreading geographically, the numbers were increasing
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Dok se virus geografski širio, brojevi su rasli
06:17
and at this time, not only were hundreds of people infected
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i do tada nisu se samo stotine ljudi zarazile
06:22
and dying of the disease,
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i umirale od ove bolesti,
06:24
but as importantly, the front line responders,
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već isto tako ljudi koji su došli da pomognu u prvim redovima,
06:26
the people who had gone to try and help,
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ljudi koji su otišli da pokušaju pomoći,
06:29
the health care workers, the other responders
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zdravstveni radnici, i drugi odazvanici
06:32
were also sick and dying by the dozens.
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su se takođe masovno razboljevali i umirali.
06:35
The presidents of these countries recognized the emergencies.
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Predsednici ovih država su prepoznali opasnost.
06:38
They met right around that time, they agreed on common action
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Ubrzo su se sastali, dogovorili su se o zajedničkom dejstvu
06:42
and they put together an emergency joint operation center in Conakry
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i zajedno su osnovali ujedinjeni urgentni centar u Konakriju
06:46
to try and work together to finish this disease and get it stopped,
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kako bi pokušali zajedničkim snagama da okončaju i zaustave ovu bolest,
06:50
to implement the strategies we talked about.
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kako bi sproveli strategije o kojima smo govorili.
06:54
But what happened then was something we had never seen before with Ebola.
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Ali ono što se sledeće desilo je nešto što nikad pre nismo videli kod ebole.
06:58
What happened then was the virus, or someone sick with the virus,
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Desilo se da se virus, ili neko zaražen virusom,
07:01
boarded an airplane, flew to another country,
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ukrcao u avion odleteo u drugu zemlju,
07:05
and for the first time, we saw in another distant country
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i po prvi put svedočimo kako u drugoj udaljenoj zemlji
07:09
the virus pop up again.
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virus ponovo izbija.
07:11
This time it was in Nigeria, in the teeming metropolis of Lagos,
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Ovog puta je to bila Nigerija, krcata metropola Lagos,
07:16
21 million people.
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21 milion ljudi.
07:18
Now the virus was in that environment.
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Sada se virus nastanio u tu okolinu.
07:21
And as you can anticipate, there was international alarm,
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I kao što možete da naslutite, nastala je međunarodna uzbuna,
07:24
international concern on a scale that we hadn't seen in recent years
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međunarodna zabrinutost u razmeri kakvu u skorije vreme nismo videli
07:28
caused by a disease like this.
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da je uzrokovana ovakvom bolešću.
07:30
The World Health Organization immediately called together an expert panel,
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Svetska zdravstvena organizacija je odmah sazvala komisiju stručnjaka,
07:35
looked at the situation, declared an international emergency.
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sagledala situaciju, proglasila međunarodno vanredno stanje.
07:39
And in doing so, the expectation would be that there would be a huge outpouring
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Čineći to, očekivalo bi se da će nastati ogroman priliv
07:44
of international assistance to help these countries
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međunarodne pomoći koja bi pomogla ovim zemljama
07:47
which were in so much trouble and concern at that time.
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koje su se u to vreme našle u teškim nevoljama i stanju zabrinutosti.
07:51
But what we saw was something very different.
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Ali ono što smo videli je bilo nešto potpuno drugačije.
07:54
There was some great response.
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Odziv je bio velik.
07:57
A number of countries came to assist -- many, many NGOs and others, as you know,
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Nekoliko zemalja je priteklo u pomoć - mnogo, mnogo nevladinih organizacija
i drugih, kao što znate, ali u isto vreme se na mnogim mestima desilo suprotno.
08:02
but at the same time, the opposite happened in many places.
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08:06
Alarm escalated, and very soon these countries found themselves
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Podignuta je uzbuna, i uskoro su ove zemlje
ostale bez potrebne podrške, i sve više izolovane.
08:10
not receiving the support they needed, but increasingly isolated.
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08:14
What we saw was commercial airlines [stopped] flying into these countries
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Komercijalne avio kompanije prestale su da lete u ove zemlje
08:19
and people who hadn't even been exposed to the virus
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i ljudima koji nisu bili uopšte izloženi virusu
08:21
were no longer allowed to travel.
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je bilo zabranjeno da putuju.
08:24
This caused not only problems, obviously, for the countries themselves,
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Ovo očigledno nije prouzrokovalo probleme samim zemljama,
08:27
but also for the response.
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već i odazvanicima.
08:30
Those organizations that were trying to bring people in,
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One organizacije koje su pokušavale da dovedu ljude,
08:33
to try and help them respond to the outbreak,
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da pomognu u savladavanju epidemije,
08:35
they could not get people on airplanes,
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nisu mogle da pošalju ljude avionima,
08:37
they could not get them into the countries to be able to respond.
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nisu mogli da ih pošalju u te zemlje kako bi mogli da pomognu.
08:40
In that situation, ladies and gentleman,
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U takvoj situaciji, dame i gospodo,
08:42
a virus like Ebola takes advantage.
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virus poput ebole uzima prednost.
08:45
And what we saw then was something also we hadn't seen before.
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I ono sledeće što smo videli je, takođe, bilo nešto što nikad pre nismo videli.
08:50
Not only did this virus continue in the places
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Ne samo da je virus nastavio da se širi na mestima
08:53
where they'd already become infected, but then it started to escalate
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koja su već bila zaražena, već je počeo da eskalira
08:57
and we saw the case numbers that you see here,
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i videli smo broj žrtava koji vidite ovde,
08:59
something we'd never seen before on such a scale,
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nešto što nikada nismo videli u ovakvim razmerama,
09:02
an exponential increase of Ebola cases
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jedan vrtoglav rast slučaja ebole
09:05
not just in these countries or the areas already infected in these countries
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ne samo u ovim zemljama ili oblastima ovih zemalja koje su već zaražene
09:10
but also spreading further and deeper into these countries.
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već se širi sve dalje i dublje u unutrašnjost zemalja.
09:13
Ladies and gentleman, this was one of the most concerning
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Dame i gospodo, ovo je bila jedna od najviše zabrinjavajućih
09:16
international emergencies in public health we've ever seen.
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međunarodnih uzbuna u javnom zdravlju kojoj smo ikad svedočili.
09:22
And what happened in these countries then,
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I ono što se zatim desilo u ovim zemljama,
09:24
many of you saw, again, on the television, read about in the newspapers,
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su mnogi od vas videli na televiziji, čitali o tome u novinama,
09:28
we saw the health system start to collapse under the weight of this epidemic.
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videli smo kako se zdravstveni sistem ruši pod težinom ove epidemije.
09:34
We saw the schools begin to close, markets no longer started,
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Videli smo kako se škole zatvaraju, tržišta prestaju sa radom,
09:38
no longer functioned the way that they should in these countries.
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nisu više funkcionisala onako kako bi trebalo u ovim zemljama.
09:42
We saw that misinformation and misperceptions started to spread
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Videli smo kako se dezinformacije i pogrešna shvatanja počinju širiti
09:46
even faster through the communities, which became even more alarmed
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još brže u zajednicama, koje su se još više uznemirile
09:49
about the situation.
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povodom ove situacije.
09:51
They started to recoil from those people that you saw in those space suits,
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Počeli su da se povlače pred onim ljudima koje ste videli u svemirskim odelima
09:54
as they call them, who had come to help them.
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kako su ih zvali, koji su došli da im pomognu.
09:57
And then the situation deteriorated even further.
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A onda se situacija još više pogoršala.
10:00
The countries had to declare a state of emergency.
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Zemlje su morale objaviti vanredno stanje.
10:02
Large populations needed to be quarantined in some areas, and then riots broke out.
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U nekim oblastima je ogroman broj stanovništva
morao biti smešten u karantin, a onda su izbile pobune.
10:08
It was a very, very terrifying situation.
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Bila je to jako, jako strašna situacija.
10:11
Around the world, many people began to ask,
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Širom sveta, mnogi ljudi su se počeli pitati,
10:14
can we ever stop Ebola when it starts to spread like this?
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hoćemo li ikad moći da zaustavimo ebolu kada počne ovako da se širi?
10:18
And they started to ask, how well do we really know this virus?
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Pitali su koliko uistinu dobro poznajemo ovaj virus?
10:23
The reality is we don't know Ebola extremely well.
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Stvarnost je da mi ne poznajemo ebolu tako dobro.
10:26
It's a relatively modern disease in terms of what we know about it.
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To je jedna prilično savremena bolest u smislu onoga šta mi znamo o njoj.
10:30
We've known the disease only for 40 years,
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Ova bolest nam je poznata samo 40 godina,
10:33
since it first popped up in Central Africa in 1976.
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otkad je prvi put izbila u Centralnoj Africi 1976. godine.
10:36
But despite that, we do know many things:
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Ali uprkos tome, mi znamo mnogo toga:
10:39
We know that this virus probably survives in a type of a bat.
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znamo da ovaj virus najverovatnije preživljava u jednoj vrsti slepog miša.
10:43
We know that it probably enters a human population
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Znamo da verovatno zalazi među ljudsko stanovništvo
10:46
when we come in contact with a wild animal
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kada dođemo u dodir sa divljom životinjom
10:49
that has been infected with the virus and probably sickened by it.
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koja je zaražena virusom i koja je verovatno od istog obolela.
10:53
Then we know that the virus spreads from person to person
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Zatim znamo da se virus širi od osobe do osobe
10:56
through contaminated body fluids.
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preko zaraženih telesnih tečnosti.
10:58
And as you've all seen,
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I kao što ste svi videli,
11:00
we know the horrific disease that it then causes in humans,
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znamo tu strašnu bolest koju potom prouzrokuje u ljudima,
11:03
where we see this disease cause severe fevers, diarrhea, vomiting,
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kada vidimo da ova bolest izaziva ozbiljnu groznicu, proliv, povraćanje,
11:08
and then unfortunately, in 70 percent of the cases or often more, death.
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a zatim nažalost, u 70% slučajeva ili čak više, smrt.
11:14
This is a very dangerous, debilitating, and deadly disease.
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Ovo je jako opasna, iscrpljujuća, i smrtna bolest.
11:20
But despite the fact that we've not known this disease for a particularly long time,
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Ali uprkos činjenici da ovu bolest ne poznajemo tako dugo,
11:24
and we don't know everything about it, we do know how to stop this disease.
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i da ne znamo sve o njoj, mi znamo kako da je zaustavimo.
11:29
There are four things that are critical to stopping Ebola.
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Postoje četiri stvari koje su ključne u zaustavljanju ebole.
11:32
First and foremost, the communities have got to understand this disease,
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Prvo i prvo, zajednice moraju da razumeju ovu bolest,
11:36
they've got to understand how it spreads and how to stop it.
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moraju da razumeju kako se ona širi i kako da je zaustave.
11:40
And then we've got to be able to have systems that can find every single case,
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Onda moramo da imamo sisteme pomoću kojih
bismo mogli locirati sve i jedan slučaj, svaki kontakt tih slučajeva,
11:44
every contact of those cases,
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2006
11:46
and begin to track the transmission chains so that you can stop transmission.
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i početi da pratimo lance prenošenja kako bismo mogli da zaustavimo prenošenje.
11:50
We have to have treatment centers, specialized Ebola treatment centers,
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Moramo da imamo centre za lečenje, specijalizovane centre za lečenje ebole,
11:54
where the workers can be protected
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gde će radnici biti zaštićeni
11:56
as they try to provide support to the people who are infected,
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dok pokušavaju da pomognu zaraženim ljudima,
12:01
so that they might survive the disease.
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kako bi mogli da prežive bolest.
12:04
And then for those who do die,
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A što se tiče onih koji umru,
12:06
we have to ensure there is a safe, but at the same time dignified, burial process,
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moramo da osiguramo sigurnu, ali u isto vreme dostojanstvenu, sahranu,
12:12
so that there is no spread at that time as well.
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kako ne bi došlo do širenja bolesti u isto vreme.
12:16
So we do know how to stop Ebola, and these strategies work, ladies and gentlemen.
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Tako da mi znamo kako da zaustavimo ebolu,
i ove strategije su uspešne, dame i gospodo.
12:21
The virus was stopped in Nigeria by these four strategies
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Virus su u Nigeriji zaustavile ove četiri strategije
12:25
and the people implementing them, obviously.
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i ljudi koji su ih primenjivali, očigledno.
12:27
It was stopped in Senegal, where it had spread, and also in the other countries
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Zaustavljen je u Senegalu, gde se proširio i takođe u drugim zemljama
12:31
that were affected by this virus, in this outbreak.
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koje su bile pogođene virusom, tokom ove epidemije.
12:35
So there's no question that these strategies actually work.
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Tako da nema sumnje da su ove strategije efikasne.
12:39
The big question, ladies and gentlemen, was whether these strategies could work
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Veliko pitanje je, dame i gospodo, da li bi ove strategije bile uspešne
12:44
on this scale, in this situation, with so many countries affected
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na ovom nivou, u ovoj situaciji, sa tako mnogo zaraženih zemalja
12:48
with the kind of exponential growth that you saw.
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sa ovakvim povećanim rastom koji ste videli.
12:52
That was the big question that we were facing just two or three months ago.
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To je veliko pitanje sa kojim smo se suočili pre samo dva ili tri meseca.
12:56
Today we know the answer to that question.
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Danas znamo odgovor na to pitanje.
13:00
And we know that answer because of the extraordinary work
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A taj odgovor znamo zbog izvanrednog rada
13:03
of an incredible group of NGOs, of governments, of local leaders,
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neverovatne grupe nevladinih organizacija, vlada, lokalnih vođa,
13:08
of U.N. agencies and many humanitarian and other organizations
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agencija UN-a i mnogih humanitaraca i drugih organizacija
13:12
that came and joined the fight to try and stop Ebola in West Africa.
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koji su došli i pridružili se borbi da se pokuša zaustaviti ebola u Zapadnoj Africi.
13:16
But what had to be done there was slightly different.
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Ali ono što je tamo trebalo uraditi je bilo malo drugačije.
13:20
These countries took those strategies I just showed you;
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Ove zemlje su uzele ove strategije koje sam vam upravo pokazao;
13:23
the community engagement, the case finding, contact tracing, etc.,
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angažman zajednica, pronalazak slučajeva, praćenje kontakata, itd,
13:28
and they turned them on their head.
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i potpuno ih preokrenule.
13:30
There was so much disease, they approached it differently.
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Bilo je toliko mnogo slučajeva bolesti, pristupali su im na različite načine.
13:33
What they decided to do was they would first try and slow down this epidemic
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Oni su odlučili da prvo pokušaju da uspore epidemiju
13:38
by rapidly building as many beds as possible in specialized treatment centers
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osposobljavajući velikom brzinom što više kreveta u specijalizovanim centrima
13:43
so that they could prevent the disease from spreading from those were infected.
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kako bi mogli sprečiti da se bolest širi od onih koji su bili zaraženi.
13:49
They would rapidly build out many, many burial teams
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Brzo bi sastavljali mnogo timova za sahrane
13:51
so that they could safely deal with the dead,
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kako bi bez brige mogli da se pobrinu za mrtve,
13:53
and with that, they would try and slow this outbreak
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i samim tim bi pokušali da uspore ovu epidemiju
13:56
to see if it could actually then be controlled using the classic approach
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kako bi ustanovili da li bi se mogla kontrolisati koristeći klasičan pristup
14:00
of case finding and contact tracing.
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pronalaženja slučajeva i kontakata.
14:03
And when I went to West Africa about three months ago,
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Kada sam ja otišao u Zapadnu Afriku pre oko tri meseca,
14:06
when I was there what I saw was extraordinary.
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ono što sam video je bilo izvanredno.
14:09
I saw presidents opening emergency operation centers themselves against Ebola
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Video sam kako sami predsednici otvaraju centre za hitne slučajeve protiv ebole
14:14
so that they could personally coordinate and oversee and champion
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kako bi mogli lično da koordinišu i nadziru i podržavaju
14:18
this surge of international support to try and stop this disease.
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ovu navalu međunarodne podrške u pokušaju da se zaustavi ova bolest.
14:22
We saw militaries from within those countries and from far beyond
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Videli smo kako vojska iz tih zemalja, a i iz udaljenih zemalja
14:26
coming in to help build Ebola treatment centers
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dolazi da pomogne da se izgrade centri za lečenje ebole
14:28
that could be used to isolate those who were sick.
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koji bi imali za svrhu da izoluju one koji su bili bolesni.
14:31
We saw the Red Cross movement working with its partner agencies on the ground there
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Videli smo kako Crveni krst radi sa svojim partnerima na licu mesta
14:36
to help train the communities so that they could actually safely bury their dead
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i pomaže u obuci zajednica kako bi one same mogle da sigurno sahrane svoje mrtve
14:41
in a dignified manner themselves.
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na dostojanstven način.
14:44
And we saw the U.N. agencies, the World Food Program,
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I videli smo agencije UN-a, Svetski program za hranu,
14:46
build a tremendous air bridge
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kako grade ogroman vazdušni most
14:48
that could get responders to every single corner of these countries rapidly
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preko kojeg bi odazvanici mogli brzo pristići u svaki kutak ovih zemalja
14:52
to be able to implement the strategies that we just talked about.
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i bili u mogućnosti da primene strategije o kojima smo upravo govorili.
14:56
What we saw, ladies and gentlemen, which was probably most impressive,
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Ono što smo videli, dame i gospodo, ono što je verovatno najimpresivnije,
14:59
was this incredible work by the governments,
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jeste ovaj neverovatan rad vlada,
15:02
by the leaders in these countries, with the communities,
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3017
vođa iz ovih zemalja, sa zajednicama,
15:05
to try to ensure people understood this disease,
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3018
kako bi bili sigurni da ljudi razumeju ovu bolest,
15:08
understood the extraordinary things they would have to do to try and stop Ebola.
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da razumeju izvanredne stvari koje bi morali da rade kako bi zaustavili ebolu.
15:14
And as a result, ladies and gentlemen,
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Kao posledicu toga, dame i gospodo,
15:16
we saw something that we did not know only two or three months earlier,
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videli smo nešto za šta do pre dva ili tri meseca,
15:20
whether or not it would be possible.
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nismo znali da li bi bilo moguće ili ne.
15:23
What we saw was what you see now in this graph,
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Ono što smo videli je ovo što sad vidite na ovom grafikonu,
15:26
when we took stock on December 1.
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kada smo sve sabrali 1. decembra.
15:29
What we saw was we could bend that curve, so to speak,
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Ono što smo uvideli je da mi možemo da savijemo krivu, da tako kažemo,
15:32
change this exponential growth,
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da promenimo ovaj neverovatan rast,
15:34
and bring some hope back to the ability to control this outbreak.
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i da vratimo nadu u mogućnost da možemo da kontrolišemo ovu epidemiju.
15:39
And for this reason, ladies and gentlemen, there's absolutely no question now
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I zbog toga, dame i gospodo, sada apsolutno ne postoji sumnja
15:43
that we can catch up with this outbreak in West Africa and we can beat Ebola.
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da možemo da sustignemo ovu epidemiju u Zapadnoj Africi
i da možemo pobediti ebolu.
15:49
The big question, though, that many people are asking,
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3173
Ipak, veliko pitanje koje mnogo ljudi postavlja,
15:52
even when they saw this curve, they said,
259
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1983
čak i kad vide ovu krivu, jeste,
15:54
"Well, hang on a minute -- that's great you can slow it down,
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"Pa, čekajte malo - to je odlično što je možete usporiti,
15:57
but can you actually drive it down to zero?"
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ali možete li je zapravo svesti na nulu?"
15:59
We already answered that question back at the beginning of this talk,
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Već smo dali odgovor na to pitanje na samom početku ovog govora,
16:03
when I spoke about Lofa County in Liberia.
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kada sam govorio o okrugu Lofa u Liberiji.
16:07
We told you the story how Lofa County got to a situation
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Pričali smo tome kako je okrug Lofa došao do situacije
16:11
where they have not seen Ebola for eight weeks.
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da osam sedmica nije zabeležen slučaj ebole.
16:13
But there are similar stories from the other countries as well.
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Ali takođe postoje slične priče iz drugih zemalja.
16:17
From Gueckedou in Guinea,
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Iz Gekedua u Gvineji,
16:19
the first area where the first case was actually diagnosed.
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oblasti gde je zapravo prvi slučaj bio zabeležen.
16:23
We've seen very, very few cases in the last couple of months,
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Videli smo vrlo, vrlo malo slučajeva u poslednjih nekoliko meseci,
16:27
and here in Kenema, in Sierra Leone, another area in the epicenter,
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4427
i ovde u Kenemi, u Sijera Leoneu, još jednoj oblasti koja je u epicentru,
16:31
we have not seen the virus for more than a couple of weeks --
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nismo videli virus više od dve sedmice -
16:35
way too early to declare victory, obviously,
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prerano da bi se proglasila pobeda, očigledno,
16:38
but evidence, ladies and gentlemen,
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ali to je dokaz, dame i gospodo,
16:39
not only can the response catch up to the disease,
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ne samo da reagovanjem možemo sustići bolest,
16:43
but this disease can be driven to zero.
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već da ova bolest može biti svedena na nulu.
16:46
The challenge now, of course, is doing this on the scale needed
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4156
Sada je izazov, naravno, da se radi na nivou koji je potreban
16:50
right across these three countries, and that is a huge challenge.
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za rad u ove tri zemlje, a to je ogroman izazov.
16:56
Because when you've been at something for this long, on this scale,
278
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4705
Jer kad tako nešto radite tako dugo, na ovakvom nivou,
17:00
two other big threats come in to join the virus.
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virusu se pridružuju druge dve velike pretnje.
17:04
The first of those is complacency,
280
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Jedna je samozadovoljstvo,
17:08
the risk that as this disease curve starts to bend,
281
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rizik da će mediji i čitav svet okrenuti glavu
17:11
the media look elsewhere, the world looks elsewhere.
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kad se ova kriva počne savijati.
17:14
Complacency always a risk.
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Samozadovoljstvo uvek predstavlja rizik.
17:16
And the other risk, of course, is when you've been working so hard for so long,
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Drugi rizik je, naravno, kada sa naporom radite ovako nešto tako dugo,
17:20
and slept so few hours over the past months,
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i kada ste tako malo spavali poslednjih meseci,
17:24
people are tired, people become fatigued,
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ljudi se umore, postanu izmoreni,
17:26
and these new risks start to creep into the response.
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i ovi novi rizici počnu da se pojavljuju.
17:30
Ladies and gentlemen, I can tell you today I've just come back from West Africa.
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Dame i gospodo, mogu vam danas reći da sam se upravo vratio iz Zapadne Afrike.
17:34
The people of these countries, the leaders of these countries,
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Ljudi u ovim zemljama, vođe ovih zemalja,
17:38
they are not complacent.
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oni nisu samozadovoljni.
17:40
They want to drive Ebola to zero in their countries.
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Oni žele da svedu ebolu na nulu u svojim zemljama.
17:43
And these people, yes, they're tired, but they are not fatigued.
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A ti ljudi, da, oni su umorni, ali oni nisu izmoreni.
17:47
They have an energy, they have a courage,
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Oni imaju energiju, nagon,
17:49
they have the strength to get this finished.
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imaju snagu da završe ovo.
17:52
What they need, ladies and gentlemen, at this point,
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Ono što im je potrebno, dame i gospodo, u ovom trenutuku,
17:55
is the unwavering support of the international community,
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jeste čvrsta podrška međunarodnih zajednica,
17:58
to stand with them,
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da ustraju sa njima,
18:00
to bolster and bring even more support at this time, to get the job finished.
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da ih podrže i dovedu još veću podršku u ovom trenutku, da završe posao.
18:05
Because finishing Ebola right now means turning the tables on this virus,
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Jer ako okončamo ebolu odmah sada, situacija se preokreće, i mi postajemo
18:10
and beginning to hunt it.
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ti koji love virus.
18:11
Remember, this virus, this whole crisis, rather, started with one case,
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Zapamtite, ovaj virus, čitava ova kriza, je počela sa jednim slučajem,
18:17
and is going to finish with one case.
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i završiće se sa jednim slučajem.
18:19
But it will only finish if those countries have got enough epidemiologists,
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Ali okončaće se samo onda kada te zemlje budu imale dovoljno epidemiologa,
18:24
enough health workers, enough logisticians and enough other people working with them
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dovoljno zdravstvenih radnika, logističara i drugih ljudi koji rade sa njima
18:28
to be able to find every one of those cases, track their contacts
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i pomažu u pronalaženju sve i jednog slučaja, njihovih kontakata
18:32
and make sure that this disease stops once and for all.
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i posstaraju se da se ova bolest zaustavi jednom zauvek.
18:36
Ladies and gentleman, Ebola can be beaten.
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Dame i gospodo, ebola se može pobediti.
18:39
Now we need you to take this story out to tell it to the people who will listen
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Sada je potrebno da prenesete ovu priču i da je saopštite ljudima koji će slušati
18:44
and educate them on what it means to beat Ebola,
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i da ih podučite o tome šta to znači pobediti ebolu,
18:47
and more importantly, we need you to advocate with the people
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i još važnije, potrebno je da podržite ljude
18:51
who can help us bring the resources we need to these countries,
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koji nam mogu pomoći da prenesemo potrebne resurse ovim zemljama,
18:54
to beat this disease.
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kako bi pobedili ovu bolest.
18:56
There are a lot of people out there who will survive and will thrive,
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Mnogo je ljudi tamo koji će preživeti i nastaviti da žive,
19:00
in part because of what you do to help us beat Ebola.
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delom zbog toga šta vi učinite u pokušaju da se pobedi ebola.
19:04
Thank you.
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Hvala.
19:05
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
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