Nirmalya Kumar: India's invisible innovation

12,575 views ・ 2015-07-15

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00:00
Translator: Thu-Huong Ha Reviewer: Jenny Zurawell
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Prevodilac: Snezana Petrovic Lektor: Aleksandar Stankovic
00:12
Over the last two decades, India has become
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Tokom poslednje dve decenije, Indija je postala
00:15
a global hub for software development
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globalni centar za razvoj softvera
00:18
and offshoring of back office services, as we call it,
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i izmeštanje službi internog poslovanja, kako ih mi zovemo
00:22
and what we were interested in finding out was that
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a ono što smo mi želeli da saznamo je to
00:27
because of this huge industry that has started
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što je zbog ove velike industrije koja je pokrenuta
00:31
over the last two decades in India,
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tokom poslednje dve decenije u Indiji,
00:33
offshoring software development and back office services,
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došlo je do izmeštanja razvoja softvera i službi internog poslovanja,
00:36
there's been a flight of white collar jobs
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i do premeštanja poslova belih okovratnika
00:38
from the developed world to India.
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iz razvijenog sveta u Indiju.
00:42
When this is combined with the loss of manufacturing jobs
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Kada se to spoji sa gubitkom proizvodnih radnih mesta
00:45
to China, it has, you know, led to considerable angst
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u Kini, to vodi razumljivoj zebnji
00:49
amongst the Western populations.
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među zapadnjačkim populacijama.
00:52
In fact, if you look at polls, they show a declining
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Zapravo, ako pogledate ankete, one pokazuju opadajući
00:55
trend for support for free trade in the West.
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trend kada je u pitanju podržavanje slobodne trgovine na Zapadu.
01:00
Now, the Western elites, however, have said
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Sada, zapadnjačka elita međutim kaže
01:03
this fear is misplaced.
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da je taj strah nestao.
01:05
For example, if you have read — I suspect many of you
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Uzmimo na primer, ako ste pročitali, a verujem da većina vas
01:08
have done so — read the book by Thomas Friedman
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jeste, knjigu Tomasa Fridmana
01:11
called "The World Is Flat," he said, basically, in his book
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"Svet je ravan", on u osnovi kaže
01:14
that, you know, this fear for free trade is wrong
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da je ovaj strah od slobodne trgovine pogrešan
01:18
because it assumes, it's based on a mistaken assumption
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zato što pretpostavlja, a to je zasnovano na pogrešnoj pretpostavci
01:21
that everything that can be invented has been invented.
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da sve što se može izmisliti je već izmišljeno.
01:25
In fact, he says, it's innovation that will keep the West
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Zapravo, on kaže, da inovacija koja će zadržati Zapad
01:28
ahead of the developing world,
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na čelu razvijenog sveta,
01:30
with the more sophisticated, innovative tasks being done
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je to što će se sofisticiraniji, inovativniji zadaci obavljati
01:33
in the developed world, and the less sophisticated,
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u razvijenom svetu, a oni manje sofisticirani,
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shall we say, drudge work being done
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možemo reći, teški poslovi raditi
01:37
in the developing world.
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u zemljama u razvoju.
01:40
Now, what we were trying to understand was,
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Sada, ono što mi pokušavamo da shvatimo je,
01:44
is this true?
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da li je to istina?
01:47
Could India become a source, or a global hub,
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Da li Indija može postati izvor, ili globalni centar
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of innovation, just like it's become a global hub
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inovacija, kao što je postala globalni centar
01:54
for back office services and software development?
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službi internog poslovanja i softverskog razvoja?
01:57
And for the last four years, my coauthor Phanish Puranam
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Poslednje četiri godine moj koautor Faniš Puranam
02:01
and I spent investigating this topic.
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i ja smo proveli istražujući ovu temu.
02:05
Initially, or, you know, as people would say, you know,
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U početku, znate, kako bi ljudi rekli,
02:09
in fact the more aggressive people who are supporting
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zapravo, oni malo agresivniji ljudi koji podržavaju
02:11
the Western innovative model, say,
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zapadni inovativni model, kažu:
02:13
"Where are the Indian Googles, iPods and Viagras,
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"Gde su Indijski Guglovi, iPodovi i vijagre,
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if the Indians are so bloody smart?" (Laughter)
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ako su Indijci tako pametni?" (Smeh)
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So initially, when we started our research, we went
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Tako da smo u početku, kada smo počeli naše istraživanje, otišli
02:22
and met several executives, and we asked them,
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i sastali se sa nekoliko rukovodilaca i pitali ih:
02:24
"What do you think? Will India go from being a favored
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"Šta vi mislite? Hoće li Indija prerasti iz omiljenog
02:27
destination for software services and back office services
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mesta za softverske usluge i službe internog poslovanja
02:30
to a destination for innovation?"
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u odredište za inovacije?"
02:33
They laughed. They dismissed us.
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Smejali su se. Odbacili su nas.
02:35
They said, "You know what? Indians don't do innovation."
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Rekli su: "Znate šta? Indijci se ne bave inovacijama."
02:38
The more polite ones said, "Well, you know, Indians
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Jedan malo ljubazniji od njih je rekao: "Pa, znate, Indijci
02:40
make good software programmers and accountants,
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su dobri softverski programeri i računovođe,
02:43
but they can't do the creative stuff."
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ali oni ne mogu raditi kreativne stvari."
02:46
Sometimes, it took a more, took a veneer of sophistication,
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Ponekad to ide i dalje pa, pod plaštom sofisticiranosti,
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and people said, "You know, it's nothing to do with Indians.
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ljudi kažu: "Znate, to nema nikakve veze sa Indijcima.
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It's really the rule-based, regimented education system
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To je zapravo tako regulisan, disciplinovan obrazovni sistem
02:56
in India that is responsible for killing all creativity."
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u Indiji koji je odgovoran za ubijanje kreativnosti."
03:01
They said, instead, if you want to see real creativity,
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Oni kažu, umesto toga, ako želiš da vidiš pravu kreativnost
03:03
go to Silicon Valley, and look at companies
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idi u Silikonsku dolinu i pogledaj u kompanijama
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like Google, Microsoft, Intel.
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kao sto su Google, Microsoft, Intel.
03:08
So we started examining the R&D and innovation labs
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Tako smo mi počeli sa ispitivanjem laboratorija za istraživanje i razvoj i inovacije
03:11
of Silicon Valley.
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u Silikonskoj dolini.
03:13
Well, interestingly, what you find there is,
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Zanimljivo, ono što ćete naći tamo,
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usually you are introduced to the head of the innovation lab
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obično vas upoznaju sa vođom inovacione laboratorije
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or the R&D center as they may call it,
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ili R&D centrom, kako oni to zovu
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and more often than not, it's an Indian. (Laughter)
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i u većem broju slučajeva je to Indijac. (Smeh)
03:24
So I immediately said, "Well, but you could not have been
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Ja sam odmah rekao: "Dobro, ali vi sigurno niste
03:27
educated in India, right?
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obrazovani u Indiji, zar ne?
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You must have gotten your education here."
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Sigurno ste stekli svoje obrazovanje ovde."
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It turned out, in every single case,
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Ispostavilo se, u svakom pojedinačnom slučaju,
03:34
they came out of the Indian educational system.
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da su oni izašli iz indijskog sistema obrazovanja.
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So we realized that maybe we had the wrong question,
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Shvatili smo da možda postavljamo pogrešno pitanje,
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and the right question is, really, can Indians
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a pravo pitanje zapravo jeste, mogu li Indijci
03:43
based out of India do innovative work?
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negde van Indije da rade inovativne poslove?
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So off we went to India. We made, I think,
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Tako da smo otišli u Indiju. Imali smo, mislim,
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about a dozen trips to Bangalore, Mumbai, Gurgaon,
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oko dvanaestak putovanja u Bangalor, Mumbaj, Gurgaon,
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Delhi, Hyderabad, you name it, to examine
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Delhi, Hajderabad, da ispitamo
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what is the level of corporate innovation in these cities.
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koji je nivo korporativnih inovacija u ovim gradovima.
04:00
And what we found was, as we progressed in our research,
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I ono što smo otkrili je, kako smo dalje napredovali u našim istraživanjima,
04:02
was, that we were asking really the wrong question.
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bilo to da smo mi zaista postavljali pogrešno pitanje.
04:05
When you ask, "Where are the Indian Googles,
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Kada pitate: "Gde su Indijski Guglovi,
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iPods and Viagras?" you are taking a particular perspective
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iPodovi i Vijagre?", vi posmatrate određeni aspekt
04:11
on innovation, which is innovation for end users,
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inovacije, koji predstavlja inovaciju za krajnje korisnike,
04:16
visible innovation.
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vidljivu inovaciju.
04:17
Instead, innovation, if you remember, some of you
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Umesto toga, inovacija, ako se sećate, neki od vas
04:21
may have read the famous economist Schumpeter,
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su možda čitali poznatog ekonomistu Šumpetera,
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he said, "Innovation is novelty
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koji kaže: "Inovacija je novina
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in how value is created and distributed."
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u načinu kako se vrednost kreira i distribuira."
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It could be new products and services,
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To mogu biti novi proizvodi i usluge,
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but it could also be new ways of producing products.
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ali to takođe mogu biti i novi načini proizvodnje proizvoda.
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It could also be novel ways of organizing firms and industries.
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To takođe može biti novi način organizovanja firmi i industrije.
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Once you take this, there's no reason to restrict innovation,
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Jednom kada to preuzmete, nema razloga da ograničite inovaciju,
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the beneficiaries of innovation, just to end users.
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korisnike inovacije, samo na krajnje korisnike.
04:44
When you take this broader conceptualization of innovation,
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Kada uzmete tu širu konceptualizaciju inovacije,
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what we found was, India is well represented
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otkrili smo da je Indija veoma zastupljena
04:50
in innovation, but the innovation that is being done in India
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u inovacijama, ali inovacije koje se sprovode u Indiji
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is of a form we did not anticipate, and what we did was
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su u formi koju mi nismo predvideli, a ono što smo uradili
04:57
we called it "invisible innovation."
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je da je nazovemo "nevidljiva inovacija. "
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And specifically, there are four types of invisible innovation
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Konkretno, postoje četiri vrste nevidljivih inovacija
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that are coming out of India.
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koje dolaze iz Indije.
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The first type of invisible innovation out of India
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Prva vrsta nevidljivih inovacija iz Indije
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is what we call innovation for business customers,
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je ono što mi zovemo inovacijom za poslovne korisnike,
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which is led by the multinational corporations,
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na čijem su čelu multinacionalne korporacije,
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which have -- in the last two decades, there have been
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koje imaju, a u poslednje dve decenije je bilo
05:16
750 R&D centers set up in India by multinational companies
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750 R&D centara multinacionalnih kompanija postavljenih u Indiji
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employing more than 400,000 professionals.
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koji zapošljavaju više od 400 000 profesionalaca.
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Now, when you consider the fact that, historically,
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Sada, kada uzmete u obzir činjenicu da je, istorijski gledano,
05:31
the R&D center of a multinational company
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R&D centar multinacionalne kompanije
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was always in the headquarters, or in the country of origin
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uvek bio u sedištu ili u zemlji porekla
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of that multinational company, to have 750 R&D centers
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te multinacionalne kompanije, imati 750 R&D centara
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of multinational corporations in India
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multinacionalnih kompanija u Indiji
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is truly a remarkable figure.
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je zaista izuzetna brojka.
05:47
When we went and talked to the people in those innovation
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Kada smo otišli i razgovarali s ljudima u tim inovacionim
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centers and asked them what are they working on,
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centrima i pitali ih na čemu oni rade,
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they said, "We are working on global products."
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rekli su: "Mi radimo na globalnim proizvodima."
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They were not working on localizing global products
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Nisu radili na lokalizovanju globalnih proizvoda
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for India, which is the usual role of a local R&D.
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za Indiju, što je uobičajena uloga lokalnih R&D.
06:01
They were working on truly global products,
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Oni su radili na stvarnim globalnim proizvodima
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and companies like Microsoft, Google, AstraZeneca,
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i kompanije kao sto su Microsoft, Google, AstraZeneca,
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General Electric, Philips, have already answered
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General Electric, Philips, su već odgovorili
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in the affirmative the question that from their Bangalore
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potvrdno na pitanje da su njihovi R&D centri iz Bangalora
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and Hyderabad R&D centers they are able to produce
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i Hajderabada, sposobni da proizvedu
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products and services for the world.
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proizvode i usluge za ceo svet.
06:20
But of course, as an end user, you don't see that,
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Ali naravno, kao jedan krajnji korisnik, vi to ne vidite,
06:23
because you only see the name of the company,
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zato što vidite samo ime kompanije,
06:24
not where it was developed.
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ne i gde je to razvijeno.
06:28
The other thing we were told then was, "Yes, but, you know,
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Druga stvar koja nam je zatim rečena je: "Da, ali, znate,
06:31
the kind of work that is coming out of the Indian R&D center
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ta vrsta posla koja dolazi iz indijskog R&D centra
06:33
cannot be compared to the kind of work that is coming out
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ne može se uporediti sa vrstom posla koja dolazi
06:35
of the U.S. R&D centers."
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iz američkih R&D centara."
06:38
So my coauthor Phanish Puranam, who happens to be
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Tada je moj koautor Faniš Puranam, koji je
06:39
one of the smartest people I know, said
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jedan od najpametnijih ljudi koje znam, rekao
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he's going to do a study.
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da će uraditi studiju.
06:43
What he did was he looked at those companies
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On je pogledao u onim kompanijama
06:46
that had an R&D center in USA and in India,
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koje su imale R&D centar u SAD i u Indiji
06:49
and then he looked at a patent that was filed
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zatim je pogledao patent koji je zaveden
06:52
out of the U.S. and a similar patent filed out of the same
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u SAD i sličan patent zaveden
06:55
company's subsidiary in India,
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u filijali iste kompanije u Indiji
06:57
so he's now comparing the patents of R&D centers
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tako da sada upoređuje patente R&D centara
07:00
in the U.S. with R&D centers in India of the same company
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u SAD sa R&D centrima iste kompanije u Indiji
07:04
to find out what is the quality of the patents filed
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da bi otkrio koji je kvalitet patenata zavedenih
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out of the Indian centers and how do they compare
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u indijskim centrima i kako se oni porede sa
07:08
with the quality of the patents filed out of the U.S. centers?
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kvalitetom patenata zavedenih u SAD centrima?
07:11
Interestingly, what he finds is
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Zanimljivo, ono što je našao
07:13
— and by the way, the way we look at the quality of a patent
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- uzgred, način na koji smo posmatrali kvalitet patenta
07:16
is what we call forward citations: How many times
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je ono kako mi shvatamo naredne citate: koliko puta
07:19
does a future patent reference the older patent? —
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sledeći patent upućuje na stariji patent?
07:23
he finds something very interesting.
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Otkrio je nešto veoma interesantno.
07:26
What we find is that the data says
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Ono što smo otkrili da podaci govore
07:28
that the number of forward citations of a patent filed
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je da je broj daljih navođenja zavedenih patenata
07:32
out of a U.S. R&D subsidiary is identical to the number
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R&D filijala u SAD identičan broju
07:35
of forward citations of a patent filed by an Indian subsidiary
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daljih navođenja patenata zavedenih u indijskoj filijali
07:39
of the same company within that company.
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istog preduzeća unutar te kompanije.
07:41
So within the company, there's no difference in the forward
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Tako da u kompaniji, nema razlike u stopi daljih
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citation rates of their Indian subsidiaries versus
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navoda u njihovoj indijskoj filijali naspram
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their U.S. subsidiaries.
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njihove SAD filijale.
07:47
So that's the first kind of invisible innovation coming out of India.
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To je prva vrsta nevidljive inovacije koja dolazi iz Indije.
07:51
The second kind of invisible innovation coming out of India
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Druga vrsta nevidljive inovacije koja dolazi iz Indije
07:54
is what we call outsourcing innovation to Indian companies,
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je ono što mi zovemo outsourcing inovacija u indijskim kompanijama,
07:58
where many companies today are contracting
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gde mnoge kompanije danas sklapaju ugovore
08:01
Indian companies to do a major part of their product
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sa indijskim kompanijama da rade najveći deo njihovog posla
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development work for their global products
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na razvoju proizvoda za njihove globalne proizvode
08:09
which are going to be sold to the entire world.
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koji će se prodavati u celom svetu.
08:11
For example, in the pharma industry, a lot of the molecules
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Na primer, u farmaceutskoj industriji, najveći deo molekula
08:13
are being developed, but you see a major part of that work
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se razvija, ali vidite da se veći deo tog posla
08:16
is being sent to India.
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šalje u Indiju.
08:19
For example, XCL Technologies,
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Na primer, XCL tehnologije,
08:22
they developed two of the mission critical systems
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razvile su dva kritična sistema borbenog leta
08:24
for the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner,
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za novi Boing 787 Dreamliner,
08:28
one to avoid collisions in the sky,
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prvi da izbegne sudar na nebu
08:30
and another to allow landing in zero visibility.
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i drugi da omogućava sletanje pri nultoj vidljivosti.
08:34
But of course, when you climb onto the Boeing 787,
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Ali naravno, kada se popnete u Boing 787,
08:36
you are not going to know that this is invisible innovation
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nećete znati da je ovo nevidljiva inovacija
08:39
out of India.
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koja je došla iz Indije.
08:40
The third kind of invisible innovation coming out of India
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Treća vrsta nevidljivih inovacija koje dolaze iz Indije
08:43
is what we call process innovations, because of an injection
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je ono što mi zovemo procesne inovacije, zbog uvođenja
08:46
of intelligence by Indian firms.
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inteligencije iz indijskih firmi.
08:49
Process innovation is different from product innovation.
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Procesne inovacije se razlikuju od proizvodnih inovacija.
08:53
It's about how do you create a new product or develop
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To je vezano za ono kako stvarate novi proizvod ili razvijate
08:56
a new product or manufacture a new product,
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novi proizvod ili izrađujete novi proizvod,
08:58
but not a new product itself?
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ali ne i sam novi proizvod?
09:00
Only in India do millions of young people dream
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Samo u Indiji milioni mladih ljudi sanjaju
09:05
of working in a call center.
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da rade u call centru.
09:09
What happens — You know, it's a dead end job in the West,
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Šta se dešava - znate, to je posao bez perspektive na Zapadu,
09:12
what high school dropouts do.
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koji rade oni koji su napustili srednju školu.
09:15
What happens when you put hundreds of thousands
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Šta se dešava kada stavite stotine hiljada
09:18
of smart, young, ambitious kids
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pametnih, mladih i ambicioznih klinaca
09:21
on a call center job?
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da rade posao u call centru?
09:23
Very quickly, they get bored, and they start innovating,
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Veoma brzo im dosadi i oni počinju da smišljaju inovacije
09:28
and they start telling the boss how to do this job better, and
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i počinju da govore šefu kako da učini taj posao boljim i
09:32
out of this process innovation comes product innovations,
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iz ove inovacije procesa dolazi do inovacije proizvoda
09:35
which are then marketed around the world.
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koji se kasnije prodaje širom sveta.
09:37
For example, 24/7 Customer,
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Na primer, 24/7 korisnički servis
09:39
traditional call center company, used to be a traditional
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tradicionalni call centar kompanije, predstavljao je tradicionalni
09:41
call center company. Today they're developing
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call centar kompanije. Danas, oni razvijaju
09:43
analytical tools to do predictive modeling so that before
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analitičke alatke da naprave model koji će predviđati, tako da pre
09:47
you pick up the phone, you can guess
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nego što podignete slušalicu, možete da pogodite
09:50
or predict what this phone call is about.
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ili predvidite na šta će se poziv odnositi.
09:56
It's because of an injection of intelligence into a process
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To je zbog injekcije inteligencije u proces
09:59
which was considered dead for a long time in the West.
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koji je smatran mrtvim dugo vremena na Zapadu.
10:02
And the last kind of innovation, invisible innovation
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I poslednja vrsta inovacije, nevidljive inovacije
10:05
coming out of India is what we call management innovation.
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koja dolazi iz Indije je ono što zovemo menadžment inovacija.
10:08
It's not a new product or a new process
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To nije novi proizvod ili novi proces
10:09
but a new way to organize work,
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već novi način organizacije posla
10:12
and the most significant management innovation to come
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i najznačajnija menadžment inovacija koja dolazi
10:14
out of India, invented by the Indian offshoring industry
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iz Indije, koju je izmislila indijska offshoring industrija
10:18
is what we call the global delivery model.
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je ono što zovemo globalnim modelom isporuke.
10:20
What the global delivery model allows is, it allows you
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Ono što vam globalni model isporuke omogućava je da
10:23
to take previously geographically core-located tasks,
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uzmete zadatke koji su prethodno bili vezani za jezgro,
10:26
break them up into parts, send them around the world
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podelite ih na delove, pošaljete širom sveta
10:29
where the expertise and the cost structure exists,
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gde stručnost i struktura troškova postoje,
10:31
and then specify the means for reintegrating them.
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a zatim odredite sredstva za njihovu reintegraciju.
10:34
Without that, you could not have any of the other
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Bez toga, ne biste mogli da imate ni jednu od ostalih
10:36
invisible innovations today.
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nevidljivih inovacija danas.
10:38
So, what I'm trying to say is, what we are finding
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Ono što pokušavam da kažem je, i ono što smo otkrili
10:41
in our research is, that if products for end users
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u našem istraživanju je, da ako su proizvodi za krajnje korisnike
10:46
is the visible tip of the innovation iceberg,
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vidljivi vrh ledenog brega inovacija
10:49
India is well represented in the invisible, large,
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Indija je dobro predstavljena u nevidljivom, velikom,
10:53
submerged portion of the innovation iceberg.
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potopljenom delu ledenog brega inovacija.
10:58
Now, this has, of course, some implications,
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Sada, ovo naravno ima neke implikacije
11:03
and so we developed three implications of this research.
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i mi smo razvili tri implikacije ovog istrazivanja.
11:07
The first is what we called sinking skill ladder,
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Prva je kako je mi zovemo potapanje lestvice veštine
11:11
and now I'm going to go back to where I started my
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i sada ću se vratiti tamo gde sam počeo svoj
11:13
conversation with you, which was about the flight of jobs.
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razgovor sa vama, koji je bio o premeštanju poslova.
11:16
Now, of course, when we first, as a multinational company,
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Sada, naravno, kada smo prvo, kao multinacionalna kompanija
11:20
decide to outsource jobs to India in the R&D,
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odlučili da izmestimo poslove u Indiju u R&D
11:22
what we are going to do is we are going to outsource the
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ono što smo nameravali da uradimo je da izmestimo
11:26
bottom rung of the ladder to India, the least sophisticated jobs,
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najniži stepenik lestvica u Indiju, najmanje sofisticirane poslove
11:29
just like Tom Friedman would predict.
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kao što bi Tom Fridman predvideo.
11:32
Now, what happens is, when you outsource the bottom rung
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Ono što se sada dešava kada premestimo poslednji stepenik
11:35
of the ladder to India for innovation and for R&D work,
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lestvica u Indiju zbog inovacija ili zbog R&D poslova
11:40
at some stage in the very near future you are going to have
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u nekom momentu u veoma bliskoj budućnosti
11:43
to confront a problem,
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2014
suočićete se sa problemom
11:45
which is where does the next step
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a to je koji je sledeći korak
11:47
of the ladder people come from within your company?
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ljudi koji su na lestvicama u vašoj kompaniji?
11:50
So you have two choices then:
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Imate dva izbora:
11:53
Either you bring the people from India into
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ili ćete dovesti ljude iz Indije u
11:55
the developed world to take positions in the next step
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razijeni svet da zauzmu pozicije na novim stepenicama
11:58
of the ladder — immigration —
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lestvica - imigracija -
12:01
or you say, there's so many people in the bottom step
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ili ćete reći, ima tako mnogo ljudi na poslednjem stepeniku
12:03
of the ladder waiting to take the next position in India,
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lestvica koji čekaju da zauzmu sledeću poziciju u Indiji,
12:06
why don't we move the next step to India?
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zašto ne premestiti sledeći korak u Indiju?
12:10
What we are trying to say is
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Ono što pokušavamo da kažemo je
12:12
that once you outsource the bottom end of the ladder, you --
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da jednom kada prepustite donji deo lestvica
12:17
it's a self-perpetuating act, because of the sinking skill ladder,
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to je samoinicijativni akt, zbog potapanja lestvica veštine
12:20
and the sinking skill ladder is simply the point that
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i potapanje lestvica veštine je jednostavno stanovište da
12:23
you can't be an investment banker
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2015
ne možete biti bankar,
12:25
without having been an analyst once.
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a da niste pre toga nekada bili analitičar.
12:27
You can't be a professor without having been a student.
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Ne možete biti profesor, a da pre toga niste bili student.
12:29
You can't be a consultant without having been a research associate.
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Ne možete biti konsultant, a da pre toga niste bili naučni saradnik.
12:32
So, if you outsource the least sophisticated jobs,
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Tako da, ako prepustite najmanje sofisticirane poslove
12:35
at some stage, the next step of the ladder has to follow.
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u nekom trenutku, sledeći koraci na lestvicama treba da slede.
12:39
The second thing we bring up is what we call
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Druga stvar koju smo izneli je ono što zovemo
12:41
the browning of the TMT, the top management teams.
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označavanje TMT-ja, top menadžment timovi.
12:44
If the R&D talent is going to be based out of India
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Ako će R&D talenti biti stacionirani izvan Indije
12:47
and China, and the largest growth markets
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i Kine, a i tržišta koja beleže najveći rast
12:49
are going to be based out of India and China,
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će biti bazirana izvan Indije i Kine,
12:51
you have to confront the problem that
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suočićete se sa problemom da će
12:53
your top management of the future
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1960
vaš top menadžment u budućnosti
12:55
is going to have to come out of India and China,
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morati da dođe iz Indije i Kine
12:58
because that's where the product leadership is,
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zato što je tamo proizvodno rukovodstvo,
12:59
that's where the important market leadership is.
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tamo je važno tržišno rukovodstvo.
13:02
Right? And the last thing we point out in this slide,
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Zar ne? I poslednja stvar na koju želimo da ukažemo u ovom slajdu
13:04
which is, you know, that to this story, there's one caveat.
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koja predstavlja jednu manu u čitavoj ovoj prici.
13:08
India has the youngest growing population in the world.
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Indija ima najmlađe stanovništvo na svetu.
13:12
This demographic dividend is incredible, but paradoxically,
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Ova demografska podela je neverovatna, ali paradoksalno
13:16
there's also the mirage of mighty labor pools.
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postoji iluzija o moćnim radnim kartelima.
13:19
Indian institutes and educational system,
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Indijski instituti i obrazovni sistem,
13:22
with a few exceptions, are incapable of producing students
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sa nekoliko izuzetaka, su nesposobni da naprave studente
13:24
in the quantity and quality needed
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potrebne po broju i kvalitetu
13:27
to keep this innovation engine going,
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da održe ovaj motor inovacija u pokretu,
13:30
so companies are finding innovative ways to overcome this,
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tako da kompanije nalaze inovativne načine da prevaziđu ovo
13:33
but in the end it does not absolve the government
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2060
ali na kraju to ne oslobađa vladu
13:35
of the responsibility for creating this educational structure.
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odgovornosti što je stvorila ovakvu obrazovnu strukturu.
13:40
So finally, I want to conclude
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Na kraju, želeo bih da zaključim
13:43
by showing you the profile of one company, IBM.
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pokazujući vam profil jedne kompanije, IBM.
13:46
As many of you know, IBM has always been considered
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Kao što većina vas zna, IBM je u poslednjih sto godina
13:49
for the last hundred years to be one of the most
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1998
smatran za jednu od
13:51
innovative companies.
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najinventivnijih kompanija.
13:52
In fact, if you look at the number of patents filed over history,
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Zapravo, ako pogledate broj patenata zavedenih kroz istoriju
13:55
I think they are in the top or the top two or three companies
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2040
mislim da su u vrhu ili u prve dve ili tri kompanije
13:57
in the world of all patents filed in the USA as a private company.
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na svetu po broju patenata zavedenih u SAD kao privatna kompanija.
14:01
Here is the profile of employees of
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Ovo je profil zaposlenih u
14:03
IBM over the last decade.
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IBM-u tokom poslednje decenije.
14:07
In 2003, they had 300,000 employees,
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U 2003., imali su 300 000 zaposlenih
14:10
or 330,000 employees, out of which, 135,000
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ili 330 000 zaposlenih, od kojih je 135 000
14:14
were in America, 9,000 were in India.
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bilo u Americi, a 9 000 je bilo u Indiji.
14:18
In 2009, they had 400,000 employees, by which time
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5003
2009., imali su 400 000 zaposlenih, a tada
14:23
the U.S. employees had moved to 105,000,
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2057
se broj zaposlenih u Americi smanjio na 105 000,
14:25
whereas the Indian employees had gone to 100,000.
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dok se broj zaposlenih u Indiji povećao na 100 000.
14:29
Well, in 2010, they decided they're not going to reveal
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U 2010., odlučili su da neće više otkrivati
14:32
this data anymore, so I had to make some estimates
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2032
ove podatke, tako da sam morao da napravim neke procene
14:34
based on various sources.
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na osnovu različitih izvora.
14:35
Here are my best guesses. Okay? I'm not saying
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Ovo su moja najbolja nagađanja. U redu? Ne kažem
14:38
this is the exact number, it's my best guess.
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da je ovo tačan broj, to je moja najbolja pretpostavka.
14:39
It gives you a sense of the trend.
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Daće vam okvirnu predstavu o trendu.
14:41
There are 433,000 people now at IBM, out of which
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Ima 433 000 ljudi sada u IBM-u, od kojih je
14:46
98,000 are remaining in the U.S.,
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2060
98 000 ostalo u SAD,
14:48
and 150,000 are in India.
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a 150 000 je u Indiji.
14:52
So you tell me, is IBM an American company,
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Pa vi meni recite, da li je IBM američka kompanija
14:55
or an Indian company? (Laughter)
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ili indijska kompanija? (Smeh)
14:59
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much. (Applause)
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Dame i gospodo, mnogo vam hvala. (Aplauz)
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