Nirmalya Kumar: India's invisible innovation

Translator: Thu-Huong Ha Reviewer: Jenny Zurawell

翻译人员: Louise LIANG 校对人员: Yuguo Zhang

Over the last two decades, India has become

在过去的二十年里，印度已经成为

a global hub for software development

全球软件开发以及

and offshoring of back office services, as we call it,

离岸后台服务的中心

and what we were interested in finding out was that

我们希望了解的是

because of this huge industry that has started

这个庞大的产业

over the last two decades in India,

自二十年前在印度崛起

offshoring software development and back office services,

由于离岸软件开发和后台服务

there's been a flight of white collar jobs

白领工作岗位也因此

from the developed world to India.

从发达国家转移到印度

When this is combined with the loss of manufacturing jobs

加上制造业岗位

to China, it has, you know, led to considerable angst

外包到中国，正如你所知道的，造成了相当程度的

amongst the Western populations.

来自西方社会的焦虑

In fact, if you look at polls, they show a declining

事实上，调查数据显示

trend for support for free trade in the West.

在西方，对自由贸易的支持者人数正在下降

Now, the Western elites, however, have said

但是，如今，西方的精英指出

this fear is misplaced.

这是一种错位的恐惧

For example, if you have read — I suspect many of you

我举个例子，如果你读过，我想很多观众都

have done so — read the book by Thomas Friedman

看过，Thomas Friedman的书

called "The World Is Flat," he said, basically, in his book

书名是《地球是平的》，其中谈到

that, you know, this fear for free trade is wrong

对于自由贸易的恐惧是错误的

because it assumes, it's based on a mistaken assumption

因为这个观点来自一个错误的假设

that everything that can be invented has been invented.

那就是一切的发明创造皆已完成

In fact, he says, it's innovation that will keep the West

而实际上，作者说，西方社会领先发展中国家的优势

ahead of the developing world,

来自于创新

with the more sophisticated, innovative tasks being done

当更复杂，更新颖的任务

in the developed world, and the less sophisticated,

在发达国家完成以后，那些较简单

shall we say, drudge work being done

或者说辛苦的工作

in the developing world.

就被转移到发展中国家

Now, what we were trying to understand was,

那我们想搞清楚的

is this true?

就是，这个的观点正确吗？

Could India become a source, or a global hub,

印度能否成为创新的源泉或全球中心

of innovation, just like it's become a global hub

就像成为

for back office services and software development?

后台服务和软件开发的中心一样？

And for the last four years, my coauthor Phanish Puranam

过去的四年里，我和合著者 Phanish Puranam

and I spent investigating this topic.

就在研究这个课题

Initially, or, you know, as people would say, you know,

开始是，正如你们所知到的，人们会说

in fact the more aggressive people who are supporting

特别是支持西方创新理论模型的拥护者

the Western innovative model, say,

他们说

"Where are the Indian Googles, iPods and Viagras,

”印度的Googles, iPods,和Viagras在哪里

if the Indians are so bloody smart?" (Laughter)

如果印度人真有那么聪明的话？“

So initially, when we started our research, we went

所以起初，在最开始的研究阶段

and met several executives, and we asked them,

我们去拜访数位高管，向他们提问

"What do you think? Will India go from being a favored

”您觉得，印度是否可能从

destination for software services and back office services

软件和后台服务的目的地转型

to a destination for innovation?"

成为创新的目的地呢？“

They laughed. They dismissed us.

他们笑了，并把我们请出门

They said, "You know what? Indians don't do innovation."

有的会说”你知道吗？印度人不会创新“

The more polite ones said, "Well, you know, Indians

比较有礼貌的版本是”印度人

make good software programmers and accountants,

有当出色的程序远和会计师的天赋，

but they can't do the creative stuff."

但他们没有创造力“

Sometimes, it took a more, took a veneer of sophistication,

有时候，表达方式更委婉一些

and people said, "You know, it's nothing to do with Indians.

人们会说”不是印度人的问题

It's really the rule-based, regimented education system

是僵化的教育体系的错

in India that is responsible for killing all creativity."

是条条框框抹杀了创意“

They said, instead, if you want to see real creativity,

所以他们建议，如果要了解创造力

go to Silicon Valley, and look at companies

要去硅谷，去参观

like Google, Microsoft, Intel.

Google (谷歌), Microsoft (微软)和Intel(英特尔)这样的公司

So we started examining the R&D and innovation labs

所以我们就开始研究

of Silicon Valley.

硅谷的研发中心和创新实验室

Well, interestingly, what you find there is,

有意思的是，在那里

usually you are introduced to the head of the innovation lab

我们发现通常创新实验室

or the R&D center as they may call it,

或者研发中心的一把手

and more often than not, it's an Indian. (Laughter)

往往就是一个印度人

So I immediately said, "Well, but you could not have been

当然我们的第一反应是”您一定不是

educated in India, right?

在印度接受教育的吧？

You must have gotten your education here."

您一定是在这里上的学吧？”

It turned out, in every single case,

结果，每一次

they came out of the Indian educational system.

他们其实都是印度教育的产物

So we realized that maybe we had the wrong question,

于是我们意识到我们没有问对问题

and the right question is, really, can Indians

正确的问题其实是， 印度的印度人

based out of India do innovative work?

可以创新吗？

So off we went to India. We made, I think,

于是我们飞往印度

about a dozen trips to Bangalore, Mumbai, Gurgaon,

我们多次到班加罗尔(Bangalore), 孟买 (Mumbai), 古尔加翁(Gurgaon)

Delhi, Hyderabad, you name it, to examine

德里(Delhi), 海得拉巴(Hyderabad)等地， 探寻

what is the level of corporate innovation in these cities.

这些城市的商业创新程度

And what we found was, as we progressed in our research,

我们的发现是，随着研究的深入

was, that we were asking really the wrong question.

看来提出的问题本身的确是不对的

When you ask, "Where are the Indian Googles,

当有人问“印度的谷歌

iPods and Viagras?" you are taking a particular perspective

iPods和伟哥在哪里？“时，提问者的立场

on innovation, which is innovation for end users,

是站在终端用户角度而言的创新

visible innovation.

是看得见的创新

Instead, innovation, if you remember, some of you

而其实，如果你还记得，

may have read the famous economist Schumpeter,

也许你们读过著名的经济学家熊彼得(Schumpeter)的著作

he said, "Innovation is novelty

他说“创新是

in how value is created and distributed."

用新的方式创造和分配价值”

It could be new products and services,

它既可以是新的产品和服务

but it could also be new ways of producing products.

也可以是不一样的制造产品的方法

It could also be novel ways of organizing firms and industries.

还可以是崭新的企业和行业的组织形式

Once you take this, there's no reason to restrict innovation,

按照这种理论，创新就不仅仅局限于

the beneficiaries of innovation, just to end users.

受益于创新的终端用户

When you take this broader conceptualization of innovation,

当你从广义角度定义创新时

what we found was, India is well represented

你就会发现，印度其实处处

in innovation, but the innovation that is being done in India

有创新，只是印度的创新形式

is of a form we did not anticipate, and what we did was

并不是人们所预期的，我们把它称之为

we called it "invisible innovation."

隐形的创新

And specifically, there are four types of invisible innovation

具体地说，印度式创新又可分为

that are coming out of India.

四个类别

The first type of invisible innovation out of India

其一

is what we call innovation for business customers,

是对商业顾客的创新

which is led by the multinational corporations,

这是由跨国企业引领的

which have -- in the last two decades, there have been

在过去二十年里

750 R&D centers set up in India by multinational companies

由跨国公司在印度建立的研发中心达750个

employing more than 400,000 professionals.

雇佣了超过40万名专业人士

Now, when you consider the fact that, historically,

当我们考虑到

the R&D center of a multinational company

跨国公司的研发中心历来

was always in the headquarters, or in the country of origin

都设在公司总部，或者初始国

of that multinational company, to have 750 R&D centers

所以位于印度的750所

of multinational corporations in India

跨国公司的研发中心

is truly a remarkable figure.

这个数字是惊人的

When we went and talked to the people in those innovation

当我们去到这些研发中心并对里面的工作人员进行访谈

centers and asked them what are they working on,

询问他们在做什么时

they said, "We are working on global products."

他们回答“我们做的是全球性的产品”

They were not working on localizing global products

他们并不是在本地化全球性产品

for India, which is the usual role of a local R&D.

来适应印度市场，这通常就是地方性研发中心的角色

They were working on truly global products,

他们做的是真正的全球性产品

and companies like Microsoft, Google, AstraZeneca,

而诸如微软，谷歌，阿斯利康制药厂(AstraZeneca)

General Electric, Philips, have already answered

通用电器，飞利浦这样的企业

in the affirmative the question that from their Bangalore

已经肯定的回应他们在班加罗尔

and Hyderabad R&D centers they are able to produce

和海德拉巴的研发中心足以胜任

products and services for the world.

为全球市场开发产品和提供服务

But of course, as an end user, you don't see that,

当让，作为终端用户，这是你看不到的

because you only see the name of the company,

因为你看到的仅仅是公司的名字

not where it was developed.

而不是产品的研发地

The other thing we were told then was, "Yes, but, you know,

也有人对我们说“即便如此，这些来自印度

the kind of work that is coming out of the Indian R&D center

研发中心的产品

cannot be compared to the kind of work that is coming out

还是比不上那些

of the U.S. R&D centers."

来自美国研发中心的产品。”

So my coauthor Phanish Puranam, who happens to be

有鉴于此，我的合著人Phanish Puranam，他刚好也是

one of the smartest people I know, said

我所认识的最聪明的人，他说

he's going to do a study.

他要做一个研究

What he did was he looked at those companies

对象是在美国和印度

that had an R&D center in USA and in India,

同时拥有研发中心的公司

and then he looked at a patent that was filed

看看那些在美国提交的专利申请

out of the U.S. and a similar patent filed out of the same

和同一公司在印度分支机构提出的

company's subsidiary in India,

类似专利申请

so he's now comparing the patents of R&D centers

这样来比较同一公司位于美国

in the U.S. with R&D centers in India of the same company

和印度提交的专利申请

to find out what is the quality of the patents filed

希望评估印度提交的专利申请的质量

out of the Indian centers and how do they compare

以及跟美国提交的那些

with the quality of the patents filed out of the U.S. centers?

申请的含金量的差异

Interestingly, what he finds is

有趣的是，他发现

— and by the way, the way we look at the quality of a patent

顺便一提的是，我们比较专利质量的方法是

is what we call forward citations: How many times

引用前人(forward citations): 就是看后来的专利

does a future patent reference the older patent? —

对之前的专利的引用次数

he finds something very interesting.

他的发现非常有意思

What we find is that the data says

我们的数据表明

that the number of forward citations of a patent filed

在同一家公司，

out of a U.S. R&D subsidiary is identical to the number

来自美国研发中心的专利申请的被引用次数

of forward citations of a patent filed by an Indian subsidiary

和印度研发中心的

of the same company within that company.

是一模一样的

So within the company, there's no difference in the forward

换而言之，在一家公司

citation rates of their Indian subsidiaries versus

印度和美国分公司的专利引用率

their U.S. subsidiaries.

是一样的

So that's the first kind of invisible innovation coming out of India.

这是第一种印度式创新

The second kind of invisible innovation coming out of India

第二种来自印度的创新

is what we call outsourcing innovation to Indian companies,

我们称之为外包创新

where many companies today are contracting

如今很多公司都把

Indian companies to do a major part of their product

产品开发的主要部分外包给印度公司

development work for their global products

服务于他们的全球性产品

which are going to be sold to the entire world.

再卖给全世界

For example, in the pharma industry, a lot of the molecules

比方说，制药行业在开发很多分子

are being developed, but you see a major part of that work

其中的很大一部分

is being sent to India.

是在印度完成的

For example, XCL Technologies,

比如XCL Technologies公司

they developed two of the mission critical systems

他们为波音公司新的787客机开发

for the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner,

其中两个关键的航行系统

one to avoid collisions in the sky,

一个防止飞行相撞

and another to allow landing in zero visibility.

另一个用于实现零能见度着陆

But of course, when you climb onto the Boeing 787,

当然，当你登上波音787客机时

you are not going to know that this is invisible innovation

是不可能觉察到这些隐形的

out of India.

来自印度的创新的

The third kind of invisible innovation coming out of India

第三种印度式创新

is what we call process innovations, because of an injection

是基于印度公司的才智

of intelligence by Indian firms.

而产生的过程创新

Process innovation is different from product innovation.

过程创新和产品创新是不一样的

It's about how do you create a new product or develop

它是关于新产品开发，创造或生产的

a new product or manufacture a new product,

流程的创新

but not a new product itself?

而不是产品本身

Only in India do millions of young people dream

只有在印度才有上百万的年轻人

of working in a call center.

向往在呼叫中心工作

What happens — You know, it's a dead end job in the West,

在西方，这样的工作是没有出头之日的

what high school dropouts do.

是中学辍学者才做的事

What happens when you put hundreds of thousands

当你把成千上万名

of smart, young, ambitious kids

聪明年轻又雄心勃勃的年轻人

on a call center job?

放在一个呼叫中心里，会出现什么情况呢？

Very quickly, they get bored, and they start innovating,

不用多久，他们就感到无聊开始想新的点子

and they start telling the boss how to do this job better, and

然后就开始跟老板说如何能更好地完成工作

out of this process innovation comes product innovations,

而这个流程地创新则带来了产品地创新

which are then marketed around the world.

再被推广到世界其他地方

For example, 24/7 Customer,

其中的例子如24/7 Customer (全天候客服公司）

traditional call center company, used to be a traditional

传统的呼叫中心公司，沿用的是固有

call center company. Today they're developing

的形式。而今天他们开发的

analytical tools to do predictive modeling so that before

分析工具可以进行模型预测

you pick up the phone, you can guess

在拿起话筒前就能猜测

or predict what this phone call is about.

或预计这通来电的内容

It's because of an injection of intelligence into a process

这都是由于对西方长期认为没有前景的行业

which was considered dead for a long time in the West.

的流程加入了有智慧的改进

And the last kind of innovation, invisible innovation

最后一种印度式的隐形创新

coming out of India is what we call management innovation.

我们称之为管理创新

It's not a new product or a new process

它不是产品和流程的创新

but a new way to organize work,

而是工作安排的创新

and the most significant management innovation to come

而来自印度的最著名的管理创新

out of India, invented by the Indian offshoring industry

是由外包行业提供的

is what we call the global delivery model.

全球服务模式

What the global delivery model allows is, it allows you

在这个模式下，可以实现

to take previously geographically core-located tasks,

把从前受地理位置局限的任务

break them up into parts, send them around the world

细化再分发给世界各地的

where the expertise and the cost structure exists,

专业人士手上或者成本结构适宜的地区

and then specify the means for reintegrating them.

再列明重新整合以上服务的方式

Without that, you could not have any of the other

缺了这个模式，今天的其他任何一个隐形创新都

invisible innovations today.

无法实现

So, what I'm trying to say is, what we are finding

所以我想说的是，我们的研究发现

in our research is, that if products for end users

如果说终端用户手中的产品是

is the visible tip of the innovation iceberg,

创新之中看得见的冰山一角的话

India is well represented in the invisible, large,

那印度的创新则是隐没在水下的

submerged portion of the innovation iceberg.

更为巨大的部分

Now, this has, of course, some implications,

当然这个也带来了启示

and so we developed three implications of this research.

我们归结为三点

The first is what we called sinking skill ladder,

第一, 下降的技能阶梯

and now I'm going to go back to where I started my

让我回到对话的开头

conversation with you, which was about the flight of jobs.

谈到岗位流失的时候

Now, of course, when we first, as a multinational company,

当然，一开始，跨国公司

decide to outsource jobs to India in the R&D,

决定要外包服务到印度的研发中心时

what we are going to do is we are going to outsource the

我们是把业务中最低端的部分

bottom rung of the ladder to India, the least sophisticated jobs,

外包出去，那些都是最简单的工作

just like Tom Friedman would predict.

跟Tom Friedman预测的是一样的

Now, what happens is, when you outsource the bottom rung

当你把最底下的工作

of the ladder to India for innovation and for R&D work,

外包到印度进行创新和研发后

at some stage in the very near future you are going to have

不久，未来的某个时刻将要

to confront a problem,

面对一个问题

which is where does the next step

往上一层的员工

of the ladder people come from within your company?

在公司内部从何而来呢？

So you have two choices then:

有两个选择

Either you bring the people from India into

要么把印度的人才

the developed world to take positions in the next step

提拔到发达国家

of the ladder — immigration —

通过移民

or you say, there's so many people in the bottom step

不然你也可以说既然在印度有这么多

of the ladder waiting to take the next position in India,

从事底层职位的人员等待升迁

why don't we move the next step to India?

何不干脆把提升的职位也转移到印度去？

What we are trying to say is

我们想说的是

that once you outsource the bottom end of the ladder, you --

一旦职业阶梯底层的工作外包出去

it's a self-perpetuating act, because of the sinking skill ladder,

由于阶梯下移，自然而然

and the sinking skill ladder is simply the point that

跟其他简单的逻辑一样

you can't be an investment banker

要成为投资银行家

without having been an analyst once.

就要先当一个分析员

You can't be a professor without having been a student.

要当教授就要先做一回学生

You can't be a consultant without having been a research associate.

要当咨询师就必须有当研究员的经历

So, if you outsource the least sophisticated jobs,

所以简单的工作被外包后

at some stage, the next step of the ladder has to follow.

某个时刻，它上面的职位就要跟随这个趋势

The second thing we bring up is what we call

此外，我们想提一下

the browning of the TMT, the top management teams.

TMT (高级管理团队)的亚洲化

If the R&D talent is going to be based out of India

假设未来研发中心将设在印度

and China, and the largest growth markets

和中国，而增长最快的市场

are going to be based out of India and China,

也将是这两个国家的话

you have to confront the problem that

你要面临的问题是

your top management of the future

未来你的高级管理人员

is going to have to come out of India and China,

必然来自印度和中国

because that's where the product leadership is,

因为那是产品领导力

that's where the important market leadership is.

市场领导力的来源

Right? And the last thing we point out in this slide,

对吧？最后我想说的是

which is, you know, that to this story, there's one caveat.

这里还有一个警示

India has the youngest growing population in the world.

印度拥有全球最年轻的人口

This demographic dividend is incredible, but paradoxically,

这个人口红利是巨大的 但相对的

there's also the mirage of mighty labor pools.

也造成强劲的劳动力市场这个幻境

Indian institutes and educational system,

印度的教育机构和教育体系

with a few exceptions, are incapable of producing students

大部分无法培养

in the quantity and quality needed

足够数量的合格人才

to keep this innovation engine going,

来满足持续创新的需求

so companies are finding innovative ways to overcome this,

所以企业也在寻找解决这个问题的新路子

but in the end it does not absolve the government

但终究，教育结构的创新是政府

of the responsibility for creating this educational structure.

不可推卸的责任

So finally, I want to conclude

最后，我希望通过

by showing you the profile of one company, IBM.

IBM公司的情况来总结

As many of you know, IBM has always been considered

很多人都知道，IBM一直是

for the last hundred years to be one of the most

在过去一个世纪以来

innovative companies.

最具创新意识的公司之一

In fact, if you look at the number of patents filed over history,

实际上，如果翻看专利申请数量的历史

I think they are in the top or the top two or three companies

我想他们是位居榜首或前几名的

in the world of all patents filed in the USA as a private company.

专利申请公司，在美国的私人企业当中

Here is the profile of employees of

这个是该公司

IBM over the last decade.

过去十年的员工构成表

In 2003, they had 300,000 employees,

2003年，他们有30万名员工

or 330,000 employees, out of which, 135,000

或者说33万员工里面13.5万

were in America, 9,000 were in India.

在美国9千在印度

In 2009, they had 400,000 employees, by which time

到2009年 他们有40万名员工 此时

the U.S. employees had moved to 105,000,

美国的员工数字变为10.5万

whereas the Indian employees had gone to 100,000.

而印度的数字则升到10万

Well, in 2010, they decided they're not going to reveal

到2010年他们决定不再公布

this data anymore, so I had to make some estimates

这个统计，所以我自己做了点估算

based on various sources.

在各种数据的基础上

Here are my best guesses. Okay? I'm not saying

这是我能做的最佳估算。这并不是

this is the exact number, it's my best guess.

确切的数字 而是我的最佳估算

It gives you a sense of the trend.

让你能感知发展趋势

There are 433,000 people now at IBM, out of which

现在IBM有43.3万名员工 其中

98,000 are remaining in the U.S.,

9.8万仍在美国

and 150,000 are in India.

而15万在印度

So you tell me, is IBM an American company,

请你告诉我，IBM是一家美国公司

or an Indian company? (Laughter)

还是印度公司(笑声)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much. (Applause)

女士们先生们 谢谢各位(掌声)