Nirmalya Kumar: India's invisible innovation

Translator: Thu-Huong Ha Reviewer: Jenny Zurawell

譯者: Barry Hu 審譯者: Yuguo Zhang

Over the last two decades, India has become

過去20餘年來，印度成為

a global hub for software development

全球軟體發展中心

and offshoring of back office services, as we call it,

提供所謂的企業辦公後勤作業服務

and what we were interested in finding out was that

我們想知道

because of this huge industry that has started

由於這個龐大新型事業

over the last two decades in India,

過去20餘年間於印度發展

offshoring software development and back office services,

軟體開發與企業後勤服務 外包

there's been a flight of white collar jobs

白領階級工作紛紛外移

from the developed world to India.

從已開發世界移轉到印度

When this is combined with the loss of manufacturing jobs

同時製造業的工作機會流失移轉到中國

to China, it has, you know, led to considerable angst

造成西方世界中許多人民

amongst the Western populations.

感到不安

In fact, if you look at polls, they show a declining

其實，只要看一下民調

trend for support for free trade in the West.

西方對自由貿易的支持在消退中

Now, the Western elites, however, have said

然而，西方的菁英們，現在說了

this fear is misplaced.

這股恐懼沒道理

For example, if you have read — I suspect many of you

舉例來說，假如你讀過 - 我估計你們應該都讀過

have done so — read the book by Thomas Friedman

湯馬士 佛立德曼 的書

called "The World Is Flat," he said, basically, in his book

"地球是平的"，他說，基本上

that, you know, this fear for free trade is wrong

畏懼自由貿易這股情緒不對

because it assumes, it's based on a mistaken assumption

因為這來自一個錯誤的假設 -

that everything that can be invented has been invented.

以為人類能發明的東西都已經發明光了

In fact, he says, it's innovation that will keep the West

但他說，事實上，創新是西方藉以

ahead of the developing world,

持續領先開發中國家的法寶

with the more sophisticated, innovative tasks being done

把複雜的，創新的工作

in the developed world, and the less sophisticated,

留在已開發世界，把較不複雜的

shall we say, drudge work being done

這麼說吧，很無聊的工作

in the developing world.

送到開發中國家去

Now, what we were trying to understand was,

我們現在要搞清楚

is this true?

這是真的嗎？

Could India become a source, or a global hub,

印度有沒有可能成為創新的源頭

of innovation, just like it's become a global hub

創新的世界中心

for back office services and software development?

就好像企業後勤，軟體開發 一樣的世界中心

And for the last four years, my coauthor Phanish Puranam

法里胥 普拉南 在過去四年間和我一起

and I spent investigating this topic.

研究這個主題

Initially, or, you know, as people would say, you know,

一開始，人們說

in fact the more aggressive people who are supporting

那些支持西方創新模型的人

the Western innovative model, say,

也是比較激進的那些傢伙 說了

"Where are the Indian Googles, iPods and Viagras,

「假如印度人真有這麼聰明，

if the Indians are so bloody smart?" (Laughter)

那印度版的Google, iPod 與威爾剛在哪兒？」 （笑聲）

So initially, when we started our research, we went

所以呢，在我們研究初期

and met several executives, and we asked them,

我們訪問一些公司的高層人員，我們問他們：

"What do you think? Will India go from being a favored

印度有機會從一個軟體開發，企業後勤服務移入國

destination for software services and back office services

變成一個創新的移入國嗎？

to a destination for innovation?"

你認為呢？

They laughed. They dismissed us.

他們大笑，看都不看我們一眼

They said, "You know what? Indians don't do innovation."

他們說："別鬧了，印度人不搞創新"

The more polite ones said, "Well, you know, Indians

比較客氣的這麼說："這個啊，你也知道的，印度人

make good software programmers and accountants,

是很好的程式設計人，也是好的會計師

but they can't do the creative stuff."

但他們的創新能力還不到位"

Sometimes, it took a more, took a veneer of sophistication,

有時，他們更委婉，說的更含蓄

and people said, "You know, it's nothing to do with Indians.

"你了解的，這和印度人本身無關

It's really the rule-based, regimented education system

只是印度的按規章行事，定型的教育體系

in India that is responsible for killing all creativity."

造成了印度人不能發揮創意"

They said, instead, if you want to see real creativity,

他們說，要搞創新，得看真的創新是什麼

go to Silicon Valley, and look at companies

你去矽谷，看看Google, 微軟，英特爾

like Google, Microsoft, Intel.

這些公司是怎麼做的

So we started examining the R&D and innovation labs

所以，我們就去研究矽谷公司

of Silicon Valley.

的研發與創新實驗室

Well, interestingly, what you find there is,

有趣的是，當他們向我們介紹

usually you are introduced to the head of the innovation lab

各創意實驗室中心，或所謂的研發中心

or the R&D center as they may call it,

的負責人時

and more often than not, it's an Indian. (Laughter)

他們多半都是印度人 （笑聲）

So I immediately said, "Well, but you could not have been

我們馬上就問了：

educated in India, right?

"你該不會是在印度受教育的吧？

You must have gotten your education here."

你一定是在這裡受教育的"

It turned out, in every single case,

結果呢，每一個

they came out of the Indian educational system.

都是出身於印度的教育體系

So we realized that maybe we had the wrong question,

所以我們猜我們一定問錯問題了

and the right question is, really, can Indians

真的問題是，其實，印度人

based out of India do innovative work?

在印度能不能做有關創意的工作？

So off we went to India. We made, I think,

我們來到印度，去了班加羅爾,

about a dozen trips to Bangalore, Mumbai, Gurgaon,

孟買，格爾高，德理，海德拉巴德等你想的到的城市

Delhi, Hyderabad, you name it, to examine

至少12次，去調查這些城市裡

what is the level of corporate innovation in these cities.

各大公司的創新水準

And what we found was, as we progressed in our research,

我們在研究中發現

was, that we were asking really the wrong question.

我們真的問錯問題了

When you ask, "Where are the Indian Googles,

假如你問："印度的Google在哪？

iPods and Viagras?" you are taking a particular perspective

印度有iPod嗎？有威爾剛嗎？" 我們只是碰觸到了

on innovation, which is innovation for end users,

創新的一個面向，是為消費者而產生的創新

visible innovation.

是看的到的創新

Instead, innovation, if you remember, some of you

反而呢，假如你用知名經濟學家，有人或許看過他的相關報導，

may have read the famous economist Schumpeter,

熊彼得的看法

he said, "Innovation is novelty

他說："創新就是價值創造及分享

in how value is created and distributed."

的新方式"

It could be new products and services,

可以是新產品，新的服務

but it could also be new ways of producing products.

但也可以是生產產品的新方法

It could also be novel ways of organizing firms and industries.

也可以是公司結構，行業組合的新方式

Once you take this, there's no reason to restrict innovation,

一旦採取這觀點，就沒有理由把創新的受益者

the beneficiaries of innovation, just to end users.

侷限於終端消費者身上。

When you take this broader conceptualization of innovation,

一旦以這種較寬廣的視角來看創新

what we found was, India is well represented

我們發現，印度的創新其實多著呢

in innovation, but the innovation that is being done in India

但在印度的創新

is of a form we did not anticipate, and what we did was

是一種我們不曾預期的創新形式，所以我們

we called it "invisible innovation."

把這些創新稱為："隱形的創新"

And specifically, there are four types of invisible innovation

更詳細的說，我們把來自印度的創新

that are coming out of India.

分成四類型隱形創新

The first type of invisible innovation out of India

第一種來自印度的隱形創新

is what we call innovation for business customers,

是為公司客戶的創新

which is led by the multinational corporations,

由跨國公司引導

which have -- in the last two decades, there have been

這些跨國公司在過去二十年間

750 R&D centers set up in India by multinational companies

在印度各地設立了750個研發中心

employing more than 400,000 professionals.

雇用了40餘萬的專業人員

Now, when you consider the fact that, historically,

把跨國公司在過去一般只把

the R&D center of a multinational company

研究中心設在公司總部所在國，

was always in the headquarters, or in the country of origin

或是設在他們的母國這件事列入考慮

of that multinational company, to have 750 R&D centers

那麼印度今天能有750個

of multinational corporations in India

跨國公司的研究中心

is truly a remarkable figure.

這真是個不可思議的數字

When we went and talked to the people in those innovation

當我們問那些工作於

centers and asked them what are they working on,

創意中心的人們，問他們做些什麼

they said, "We are working on global products."

他們說；"我們正在研發供全球使用的產品"

They were not working on localizing global products

他們不是生產一個全球產品的印度版

for India, which is the usual role of a local R&D.

這通常是本地公司的研發中心的任務

They were working on truly global products,

他們真的在研發全球級產品

and companies like Microsoft, Google, AstraZeneca,

像是微軟，谷歌，AstraZeneca, 奇異（GE）

General Electric, Philips, have already answered

費立普等跨國公司，已經用他們在

in the affirmative the question that from their Bangalore

班加羅爾，海德拉巴德等地的研發中心，正面回應

and Hyderabad R&D centers they are able to produce

這些研發中心的確有生產提供

products and services for the world.

全球產品及服務的能力

But of course, as an end user, you don't see that,

當然，身為終端消費者，我們看不到這些

because you only see the name of the company,

我們只看到公司的名字

not where it was developed.

而沒看到產品是在哪裡開發的

The other thing we were told then was, "Yes, but, you know,

他們那時還說："印度的確有創新，

the kind of work that is coming out of the Indian R&D center

但在印度研發中心所做出的產品

cannot be compared to the kind of work that is coming out

和美國研發中心所做出的產品

of the U.S. R&D centers."

不能相提並論。"

So my coauthor Phanish Puranam, who happens to be

我的合作者，也剛巧是我認識的最聰明的人之一

one of the smartest people I know, said

法里胥 普拉南，聽了後就說

he's going to do a study.

他要研究這句話是否正確

What he did was he looked at those companies

他把那些在美國和在印度

that had an R&D center in USA and in India,

都有研發中心的公司找出來

and then he looked at a patent that was filed

然後檢視同間公司美國子公司

out of the U.S. and a similar patent filed out of the same

與印度子公司所申請的

company's subsidiary in India,

類似專利

so he's now comparing the patents of R&D centers

他比較美國的研發中心

in the U.S. with R&D centers in India of the same company

與在印度的研發中心

to find out what is the quality of the patents filed

各別申請的專利

out of the Indian centers and how do they compare

比較這些專利

with the quality of the patents filed out of the U.S. centers?

品質是否有高下之分

Interestingly, what he finds is

有趣的是，他發現

— and by the way, the way we look at the quality of a patent

-- 對了，我們比較專利品質

is what we call forward citations: How many times

用的是'後續引用指標': 一件專利

does a future patent reference the older patent? —

被其後其他專利引用的次數是多少 --

he finds something very interesting.

他有些發現挺有意思

What we find is that the data says

我們發現根據資料顯示

that the number of forward citations of a patent filed

美國公司的專利後續引用指標

out of a U.S. R&D subsidiary is identical to the number

和同公司印度子公司的專利申請的後續引用指標

of forward citations of a patent filed by an Indian subsidiary

完全一樣

of the same company within that company.

就同一間公司的美/印子公司來看

So within the company, there's no difference in the forward

所以，在同一間公司

citation rates of their Indian subsidiaries versus

印度子公司的專利後續引用指標

their U.S. subsidiaries.

和美國子公司一樣

So that's the first kind of invisible innovation coming out of India.

這就是產生於印度的第一種隱形的創新

The second kind of invisible innovation coming out of India

第二項源自於印度的隱形的創新

is what we call outsourcing innovation to Indian companies,

我們稱為"把創新外包到印度公司"

where many companies today are contracting

今天有許多公司把他們全球產品的開發

Indian companies to do a major part of their product

主要的工作外包到印度公司

development work for their global products

這些產品

which are going to be sold to the entire world.

都將銷售於全球

For example, in the pharma industry, a lot of the molecules

舉例來說，製藥產業開發許多的分子

are being developed, but you see a major part of that work

但主要的開發工作

is being sent to India.

全被送到印度

For example, XCL Technologies,

例如 XCL Technologies

they developed two of the mission critical systems

為波音787夢幻機開發的兩項

for the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner,

重要的操控系統

one to avoid collisions in the sky,

一個是避免空中碰撞的系統

and another to allow landing in zero visibility.

一個是在能見度為零下能安全讓飛機降落的自控系統

But of course, when you climb onto the Boeing 787,

當然囉，當你爬上一架波音787飛機

you are not going to know that this is invisible innovation

你不會知道這是來自印度的

out of India.

隱形的創新

The third kind of invisible innovation coming out of India

第三項源自印度的隱形的創新

is what we call process innovations, because of an injection

稱為過程的創新

of intelligence by Indian firms.

來自於印度的智慧，注入了這些創新之中

Process innovation is different from product innovation.

過程的創新和產品的創新不同

It's about how do you create a new product or develop

過程的創新處理有關 如何創造新產品，

a new product or manufacture a new product,

開發新產品 和 生產新產品

but not a new product itself?

但不處理新產品本身

Only in India do millions of young people dream

只有在印度，有數以百萬計的年輕人

of working in a call center.

夢想在電話客服中心工作

What happens — You know, it's a dead end job in the West,

會發生什麼事呢？ -- 你也知道，在西方

what high school dropouts do.

這可是高中沒畢業的人做的沒前途的工作

What happens when you put hundreds of thousands

當你把數十萬聰明

of smart, young, ambitious kids

年輕，充滿野心的小伙子

on a call center job?

放在客服電話中心工作，會發生什麼事？

Very quickly, they get bored, and they start innovating,

他們很快就覺得無聊，然後他們就開始創新

and they start telling the boss how to do this job better, and

他們告訴他們的老闆工作怎樣可以做的更好

out of this process innovation comes product innovations,

就是這種過程的創新，也帶動了產品創新

which are then marketed around the world.

這些產品成為行銷全球的產品

For example, 24/7 Customer,

舉例來說，24/7　客服公司

traditional call center company, used to be a traditional

過去是個很傳統的

call center company. Today they're developing

經營電話客服中心的公司。今天，他們開發出

analytical tools to do predictive modeling so that before

分析工具處理預測型模，

you pick up the phone, you can guess

在客服人員接起電話前

or predict what this phone call is about.

就能猜出或預測出這通來電的目的

It's because of an injection of intelligence into a process

因為這個過程有來自印度的智慧

which was considered dead for a long time in the West.

在西方，早已不存在這樣的智慧了

And the last kind of innovation, invisible innovation

最後的一種創新，來自

coming out of India is what we call management innovation.

印度的隱形創新，是’管理創新’

It's not a new product or a new process

不是新產品，也不是新過程

but a new way to organize work,

而是組織工作的新方式

and the most significant management innovation to come

而來自印度外包行業所發明的

out of India, invented by the Indian offshoring industry

最重要的管理創新

is what we call the global delivery model.

是”全球服務”

What the global delivery model allows is, it allows you

全球服務讓你能

to take previously geographically core-located tasks,

把以前必須於全球各地的核心工作

break them up into parts, send them around the world

打散，把打散後分離出來的工作送到世界

where the expertise and the cost structure exists,

各地有相關專業及成本結構的地方

and then specify the means for reintegrating them.

然後指定重新組織這些工作的方式

Without that, you could not have any of the other

沒有這項創新，就不可能

invisible innovations today.

有今天這些其他的隱形創新

So, what I'm trying to say is, what we are finding

所以，我要說的是，我們的研究發現

in our research is, that if products for end users

假如把消費者產品看成

is the visible tip of the innovation iceberg,

是創新冰山的一角

India is well represented in the invisible, large,

印度在那看不到的，大規模的

submerged portion of the innovation iceberg.

沈潛於水面下的創新冰山基座，佔有主要角色

Now, this has, of course, some implications,

當然，這也有些不很明顯的現象

and so we developed three implications of this research.

我們就這項研究整理出三個現象

The first is what we called sinking skill ladder,

第一個，我們叫”下沈的技能階梯”

and now I'm going to go back to where I started my

現在我要回到我開始演講時

conversation with you, which was about the flight of jobs.

提到的工作流失

Now, of course, when we first, as a multinational company,

當一個跨國公司決定

decide to outsource jobs to India in the R&D,

把研發工作外包到印度

what we are going to do is we are going to outsource the

他們把研發部門最底層

bottom rung of the ladder to India, the least sophisticated jobs,

的工作，最不複雜的工作，送到印度。

just like Tom Friedman would predict.

這也如 佛立德曼（地球是平的一書作者）所預測發生的事

Now, what happens is, when you outsource the bottom rung

然後呢，你已經把底層工作送到印度

of the ladder to India for innovation and for R&D work,

讓他們做研發創新的工作

at some stage in the very near future you are going to have

很快很快的

to confront a problem,

你面臨一個問題

which is where does the next step

就是，從公司內要找比最底層高一階的

of the ladder people come from within your company?

工作人員，該怎麼找？

So you have two choices then:

你有兩個選擇：

Either you bring the people from India into

要不，你就把印度低階員工引進到開發國家

the developed world to take positions in the next step

讓他們往上走一步

of the ladder — immigration —

升上高一階的職位 ──移民──

or you say, there's so many people in the bottom step

或者，你想，既然在印度有這麼多

of the ladder waiting to take the next position in India,

的最低階人員等著要往上升一階

why don't we move the next step to India?

那何不把這比最低一階高一階的工作送到印度去？

What we are trying to say is

我們要說的是

that once you outsource the bottom end of the ladder, you --

一旦你把最底層的工作外包了

it's a self-perpetuating act, because of the sinking skill ladder,

這是個自我存續的行為，正因下沈的技能階梯現象而來

and the sinking skill ladder is simply the point that

而這個下沈的技能階梯簡單說就是

you can't be an investment banker

要成為一個投資銀行家

without having been an analyst once.

你得先做過分析師才行

You can't be a professor without having been a student.

你沒當過學生就不可能成為教授

You can't be a consultant without having been a research associate.

你沒做過研究助理，就不會成為顧問

So, if you outsource the least sophisticated jobs,

所以，一旦你外包了最簡單的工作

at some stage, the next step of the ladder has to follow.

下一段更高階的工作也就跟著外包（流失）了

The second thing we bring up is what we call

研究發現的第二個現象

the browning of the TMT, the top management teams.

是高階管理人員在地化（黃皮膚化）

If the R&D talent is going to be based out of India

假如研發人員將奠基於印度

and China, and the largest growth markets

及中國，而世界上最大的成長市場

are going to be based out of India and China,

也奠基於印度和中國

you have to confront the problem that

你會面臨

your top management of the future

未來的高階管理階層

is going to have to come out of India and China,

也必須奠基於印度和中國 這個問題

because that's where the product leadership is,

因為相關產品的生產領導階層都在印度及中國

that's where the important market leadership is.

市場上的領導階層也在那兒

Right? And the last thing we point out in this slide,

不是嗎？而這投影片上的最後一點

which is, you know, that to this story, there's one caveat.

這個故事裡，有一件事得先說清楚

India has the youngest growing population in the world.

印度的年輕人還在不斷增加

This demographic dividend is incredible, but paradoxically,

這項人口紅利，非常好。但很矛盾的

there's also the mirage of mighty labor pools.

這也讓人有印度有龐大勞工的幻象

Indian institutes and educational system,

印度的教育機溝及教育體系

with a few exceptions, are incapable of producing students

除了少數例外，無法教育出夠多

in the quantity and quality needed

所需的高素質學生

to keep this innovation engine going,

來滿足這創新引擎繼續運作

so companies are finding innovative ways to overcome this,

所以企業也努力找尋創新方式以克服這個挑戰

but in the end it does not absolve the government

但最終，印度政府仍得

of the responsibility for creating this educational structure.

擔起建構教育結構的責任

So finally, I want to conclude

所以，最後，我要用一個公司 --IBM

by showing you the profile of one company, IBM.

的結構來作結

As many of you know, IBM has always been considered

大家都知道，IBM在過去百年來

for the last hundred years to be one of the most

一直都被世人認為是

innovative companies.

最創新的公司之一

In fact, if you look at the number of patents filed over history,

事實上，就他們公司歷史上所申請的專利來看

I think they are in the top or the top two or three companies

我想他們不是第一，第二，就是第三

in the world of all patents filed in the USA as a private company.

這是就所有在美國的私人公司所申請的專利數來看

Here is the profile of employees of

這是IBM過去10年來

IBM over the last decade.

員工結構的基本資料

In 2003, they had 300,000 employees,

2003年，有總數30萬員工

or 330,000 employees, out of which, 135,000

或是33萬，其中13萬5千人

were in America, 9,000 were in India.

在美國，而有9千人在印度

In 2009, they had 400,000 employees, by which time

2009年，總數40萬員工，此時

the U.S. employees had moved to 105,000,

美國員工數降為10萬5千人

whereas the Indian employees had gone to 100,000.

而印度員工數則上升到10萬人

Well, in 2010, they decided they're not going to reveal

2010 年時，他們決定不再揭露這項資訊

this data anymore, so I had to make some estimates

所以我只能估計

based on various sources.

根據不同來源的資料來估計

Here are my best guesses. Okay? I'm not saying

這是我能猜到最近的數字. 要知道，我可沒說

this is the exact number, it's my best guess.

這是個精確的數字，這是我的猜測

It gives you a sense of the trend.

讓你對趨勢有個概念

There are 433,000 people now at IBM, out of which

今天，IBM有43萬3千員工

98,000 are remaining in the U.S.,

其中9萬8千人在美國

and 150,000 are in India.

15萬人在印度

So you tell me, is IBM an American company,

你說吧，IBM還是美國公司嗎？

or an Indian company? (Laughter)

還是間印度公司？（笑聲）

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much. (Applause)

女士先生們，謝謝！（掌聲）