Michael Metcalfe: We need money for aid. So let's print it.

Prevodilac: Aleksandar Despotovic Lektor: Ivana Korom

Thirteen years ago,

Pre trinaest godina,

we set ourselves a goal to end poverty.

postavili smo cilj da okončamo siromaštvo.

After some success,

Nakon nešto uspeha,

we've hit a big hurdle.

naišli smo na prepreku.

The aftermath of the financial crisis

Posledice finansijske krize

has begun to hit aid payments,

su počele da utiču na plaćanje za pomoć,

which have fallen for two consecutive years.

koje opada već dve godine zaredom.

My question is whether the lessons learned

Pitanje je, da li se mogu naučene lekcije

from saving the financial system

o spašavanju finansijskog sistema,

can be used to help us overcome that hurdle

iskoristiti da nam pomognu da pređemo tu prepreku,

and help millions.

i pomognemo milionima?

Can we simply print money for aid?

Možemo li, jednostavno, štampati novac za pomoć?

"Surely not."

"Sigurno ne."

It's a common reaction.

To je uobičajena reakcija.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It's a quick talk.

To je blebetanje.

Others channel John McEnroe.

Drugi imitiraju Džona Mekenroa.

"You cannot be serious!"

"Mora da se šališ!"

Now, I can't do the accent, but I am serious,

Ne mogu da oponašam akcenat, ali sam ozbiljan

thanks to these two children,

zahvaljujući ovim dvema devojčicama,

who, as you'll learn, are very much at the heart

koje su, videćete,

srž mog govora.

of my talk.

On the left, we have Pia.

Sa leve strane je Pija.

She lives in England.

Ona živi u Engleskoj.

She has two loving parents,

Ima roditelje koji je vole,

one of whom is standing right here.

od kojih jedan stoji upravo ovde.

Dorothy, on the right,

Doroti, sa desne strane,

lives in rural Kenya.

živi u selu u Keniji.

She's one of 13,000 orphans

Ona je jedna od 13 000 siročadi,

and vulnerable children

i ranjive dece

who are assisted by a charity that I support.

kojima pomaže dobrotvorna ustanova koju podržavam.

I do that because I believe

Podržavam je jer verujem

that Dorothy, like Pia,

da Doroti, poput Pije,

deserves the best life chances

zaslužuje najbolje prilike u životu

that we can afford to give her.

koje joj možemo priuštiti.

You'll all agree with me, I'm sure.

Složićete se sa mnom, siguran sam.

The U.N. agrees too.

UN se slaže takođe.

Their overriding aim

Njihova najvažnija meta

for international aid

za međunarodnu pomoć

is to strive for a life of dignity for all.

je težnja ka dostojanstvenom životu za sve.

But -- and here's that hurdle --

Ali - tu je i ta prepreka -

can we afford our aid aspirations?

da li možemo da priuštimo naše namere za pomoć?

History suggests not.

Istorija navodi da ne možemo.

In 1970, governments set themselves a target

1970, vlade su postavile sebi cilj

to increase overseas aid payments

da povećaju isplate za pomoć preko mora,

to 0.7 percent

na 0.7 procenata od svojih

of their national income.

nacionalnih prihoda.

As you can see, a big gap opens up

Kao što vidite, veliki razmak se primećuje

between actual aid and that target.

između stvarne pomoći i tog cilja.

But then come the Millennium Development Goals,

Zatim se pojavljuju Milenijumski ciljevi razvoja,

eight ambitious targets

osam ambicioznih meta

to be met by 2015.

koje treba ispuniti do 2015.

If I tell you that just one of those targets

Ako vam kažem da je jedna od ovih meta

is to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty,

iskoreniti glad i siromaštvo,

you get a sense of the ambition.

dobićete svest o ambiciji.

There's also been some success.

Bilo je i nešto uspeha.

The number of people living

Broj ljudi koji žive

on less than $1.25 a day has halved.

sa manje od $1.25 na dan se prepolovio.

But a lot remains to be done in two years.

Ali ostaje još mnogo posla za naredne dve godine.

One in eight remain hungry.

Jedan od osam ljudi ostaje gladan.

In the context of this auditorium,

U sklopu ove dvorane,

the front two rows aren't going to get any food.

prednja dva reda neće dobiti nikakvu hranu.

We can't settle for that,

Ne možemo se zadovoljiti time,

which is why the concern about the eighth goal,

i zbog toga je zabrinutost u vezi sa osmim ciljem,

which relates to funding,

koji se odnosi na finansiranje,

which I said at the beginning is falling,

za šta sam rekao na početku da opada,

is so troubling.

tako problematična.

So what can be done?

Šta se može učiniti povodom toga?

Well, I work in financial markets,

Ja radim na finansijskom tržištu,

not development.

ne razvoju.

I study the behavior of investors,

Izučavam ponašanje investitora,

how they react to policy and the economy.

kako reaguju na politiku i ekonomiju.

It gives me a different angle on the aid issue.

To mi daje drugačiji pogled na temu pomoći.

But it took an innocent question

Ali je nevino pitanje

from my then-four-year-old daughter

moje četvorogodišnje ćerke

to make me appreciate that.

bilo potrebno da to poštujem.

Pia and I were on the way to a local cafe

Pija i ja smo bili na putu ka restoranu

and we passed a man collecting for charity.

i prošli smo pored čoveka koji skuplja novac za dobre svrhe.

I didn't have any change to give him,

Nisam imao sitniša da mu dam,

and she was disappointed.

na šta se ona razočarala.

Once in the cafe, Pia takes out her coloring book

U restoranu je izvadila svoju bojanku

and starts scribbling.

i počela da škraba.

After a little while, I ask her what she's doing,

Malo kasnije sam je pitao šta radi,

and she shows me a drawing

a ona mi je pokazala crtež

of a £5 note

novčanice od 5 funti,

to give to the man outside.

kako bi je dala tom čoveku.

It's so sweet,

Toliko je drago,

and more generous than Dad would have been.

i plemenitije nego što bi otac ikada bio.

But of course I explained to her,

Ali sam joj, naravno, objasnio,

"You can't do that; it's not allowed."

"Ne možeš to uraditi; to nije dozvoljeno."

To which I get the classic four-year-old response:

Na šta sam dobio tipičan dečiji odgovor:

"Why not?"

"Zašto da ne?"

Now I'm excited, because I actually think

Postao sam uzbuđen, jer sam mislio

I can answer this time.

da ovaj put mogu odgovoriti.

So I launch into an explanation of how

Upustio sam se u objašnjavanje kako

an unlimited supply of money

neograničene zalihe novca

chasing a limited number of goods

koje prate ograničen broj robe

sends prices to the moon.

podižu cene do meseca.

Something about that exchange stuck with me,

Nešto u vezi sa tom razmenom je ostalo uz mene,

not because of the look of relief

ne zbog olakšanja

on Pia's face when I finally finished,

na Pijinom licu kada sam završio, (Smeh)

but because it related

već zato što je u vezi sa

to the sanctity of the money supply,

svetinjom novčanih zaliha,

a sanctity that had been challenged and questioned

svetinjom koja je izazivana i dovođena u pitanje

by the reaction of central banks

reakcijama centralnih banki

to the financial crisis.

na finansijsku krizu.

To reassure investors,

Kako bi ponovo uverile investitore,

central banks began buying assets

banke su počele da kupuju imovinu

to try and encourage investors to do the same.

kako bi pokušale da ohrabre investitore da i oni to učine.

They funded these purchases

Finansirali su ove kupovine

with money they created themselves.

novcem koji su sami stvorili.

The money wasn't actually physically printed.

Novac nije bio zapravo fizički odštampan.

It's still sort of locked away in the banking system today.

To je na neki način zarobljeno u bankarskom sistemu danas.

But the amount created was unprecedented.

Ali stvorena količina je bila bez presedana.

Together, the central banks of the U.S.,

Zajedno, centralne banke SAD-a

U.K and Japan

Velike Britanije i Japana

increased the stock of money in their economies

su povećale zalihe novca u svojoj privredi

by 3.7 trillion dollars.

za 3,7 biliona dolara.

That's three times, in fact that's more than three times,

To je tri puta više, u stvari taj broj je veći od tri,

the total physical stock of dollar notes in circulation.

od ukupnih zaliha novčanica koje se koriste.

Three times!

Tri puta!

Before the crisis,

Pre krize,

this would have been utterly unthinkable,

ovo bi bilo krajnje nezamislivo,

yet it was accepted remarkably quickly.

a ipak je pihvaćeno veoma brzo.

The price of gold,

Cena zlata,

an asset thought to protect against inflation,

resursa za koji se smatra da brani protiv inflacije,

did jump,

je skočila,

but investors bought other assets

ali investitori su kupili drugu imovinu

that offered little protection from inflation.

koja je pružila neznatnu zaštitu protiv inflacije.

They bought fixed income securities, bonds.

Kupili su fiksne obveznice, menice.

They bought equities too.

Kupili su akcije takođe.

For all the scare stories,

Za sve zastrašujuće priče,

the actual actions of investors

stvarna dela investitora

spoke of rapid acceptance and confidence.

su govorila o brzim prihvatanjima i poverenju.

That confidence was based on two pillars.

To poverenje je bazirano na dve stavke.

The first was that, after years

Prva je bilo da, nakon više godina

of keeping inflation under control,

držanja inflacije pod kontrolom,

central banks were trusted

verovalo se centralnim bankama

to take the money-printing away

da će ukloniti štampanje novca

if inflation became a threat.

ukoliko inflacija postane pretnja.

Secondly, inflation simply never became a threat.

Drugo, inflacija nikad nije ni postala pretnja.

As you can see, in the United States,

Kao što vidite, u SAD,

inflation for most of this period

inflacija, većinu ovoga perioda,

remained below average.

je ostala ispod proseka.

It was the same elsewhere.

Tako je bilo i na drugim mestima.

So how does all this relate to aid?

Kakve ovo veze ima sa pomaganjem?

Well, this is where Dorothy

Ovde stupa Doroti

and the Mango Tree charity

i dobrotvorna ustanova Mango Drvo

that supports her comes in.

koja je podržava.

I was at one of their fundraising events

Bio sam na jednom od događaja za prikljupanje sredstava

earlier this year,

ranije ove godine,

and I was inspired to give a one-off donation

i bio sam inspirisan da pružim jednokratnu donaciju

when I remembered that my firm

kada sam se setio da moja firma

offers to match the charitable contributions

nudi da odgovara dobrotvornim doprinosima

its employees make.

koje njeni zaposleni učine.

So think of this:

Razmislite o ovome:

Instead of just being able to help Dorothy

umesto da pomognem Doroti

and four of her classmates

i četiri njena druga iz razreda

to go through secondary school for a few years,

da idu u srednju školu nekoliko godina,

I was able to double my contribution.

mogao sam da udvostručim svoj doprinos.

Brilliant.

Genijalno.

So following that conversation with my daughter,

Nakon tog razgovora sa svojom ćerkom,

and seeing the absence of inflation

videvši izostanak inflacije

in the face of money-printing,

u licu štampanja novca,

and knowing that international aid payments

i znajući da je novac za međunarodnu pomoć

were falling at just the wrong time,

opadao u pogrešno vreme,

this made me wonder:

zapitao sam se:

Could we match

da li možemo da oponašamo to,

but just on a much grander scale?

samo u daleko većim proporcijama?

Let's call this scheme "Print Aid."

Nazovimo ovu shemu "Štampanje pomoći."

And here's how it might work.

Evo kako bi to moglo da radi.

Provided it saw little inflation risk from doing so,

Pod uslovom da je nizak rizik inflacije,

the central bank would be mandated

centralna banka bi bila pod mandatom

to match the government's overseas aid payments

da plati koliko i vlada, za međunarodnu novčanu pomoć

up to a certain limit.

do određene granice.

Governments have been aiming to get aid

Vlade su planirale da dignu novčanu pomoć

to 0.7 percent for years,

do 0.7 procenata godinama,

so let's set the limit at half of that,

hajde da postavimo granicu na polovinu,

0.35 percent of their income.

0,35 procenata njihovog prihoda.

So it would work like this: If in a given year

To bi izgledalo ovako: u datoj godini

the government gave 0.2 percent of its income

vlada bi dala 0,2 procenta svojih prihoda

to overseas aid,

za međunarodnu pomoć,

the central bank would simply top it up

a centralna banka bi povrh toga

with a further 0.2 percent.

dodala još 0,2 procenata.

So far so good.

Za sada je dobro.

How risky is this?

Koliki je rizik u ovome?

Well, this involves the creation of money

Ovo uključuje stvaranje novca

to buy goods, not assets.

za kupovinu robe, ne imovine.

It sounds more inflationary already, doesn't it.

Već zvuči inflatorno, zar ne?

But there are two important mitigating factors here.

Ali postoje dva važna olakšavajuća faktora.

The first is that by definition,

Prvi je da bi se, po definiciji,

this money printed would be spent overseas.

ovaj štampani novac trošio u inostranstvu.

So it's not obvious how it leads to inflation

Nije očigledno kako ovo vodi do inflacije

in the country doing the actual printing

u zemlji koja štampa novac

unless it leads to a currency depreciation of that country.

osim ukoliko vodi ka opadanju vrednosti valute u toj zemlji.

That is unlikely for the second reason:

To nije verovatno zbog drugog razloga:

the scale of the money that would be printed

količine novca koji bi se štampao

under this scheme.

po ovoj šemi.

So let's think of an example

Razmislimo o primeru

where Print Aid was in place

u kom je sprovedeno Štampanje pomoći

in the U.S., U.K. and Japan.

u SAD, Velikoj Britaniji i Japanu.

To match the aid payments made

Ukoliko bi ove vlade isplatile pomoć

by those governments over the last four years,

u periodu od četiri godine,

Print Aid would have generated

Štampanje pomoći bi proizvelo

200 billion dollars' worth of extra aid.

200 milijardi dolara dodatne pomoći.

What would that look like

Kako bi to izledalo

in the context of the increase in the money stock

u kontekstu povećanja zaliha novca

that had already happened in those countries

koje se dogodilo u ovim zemljama

to save the financial system?

kako bi se spasio finansijski sistem?

Are you read for this?

Da li ste spremni za ovo?

You might struggle to see that at the back,

Možda ćete imati problema da vidite,

because the gap is quite small.

jer je razmak baš mali.

So what we're saying here

Srž ove priče je

is that we took a $3.7 trillion gamble

da smo se kockali u vrednosti od 3,7 biliona dolara

to save our financial systems,

kako bismo spasili finansijske sisteme,

and you know what, it paid off.

i znate šta, isplatilo se.

There was no inflation.

Nije bilo inflacije.

Are we really saying that it's not worth the risk

Zar ćemo reći da nije vredno rizika

to print an extra 200 billion for aid?

odštampati dodatnih 200 milijardi za pomoć?

Would the risks really be that different?

Da li bi rizici bili toliko drugačiji?

To me, it's not that clear.

Meni, to nije toliko jasno.

What is clear is the impact on aid.

Ono što je jasno je uticaj na pomoć.

Even though this is the printing

Iako je ovo štampanje

of just three central banks,

samo tri centralne banke,

the global aid that's given

globalna pomoć koja je dobijena

over this period is up by almost 40 percent.

tokom ovog perioda je porasla za oko 40 procenata.

Aid as a proportion of national income

Pomoć kao srazmera nacionalnog prihoda

all of a sudden is at a 40-year high.

je odjednom napredovala za 40 godina.

Now, we don't get to 0.7 percent.

Nismo stigli do 0,7 procenata.

Governments are still incentivized to give.

Vlade su i dalje motivisane da daju.

But you know what, that's the point of a matching scheme.

Ali znate šta, to je poenta sheme uklapanja.

So I think what we've learned

Mislim da je ono što smo naučili

is that the risks from this money creation scheme

da su rizici stvaranja novca ovom shemom

are quite modest,

sasvim skromni,

but the benefits

ali da su beneficije,

are potentially huge.

potencijalno ogromne.

Imagine what we could do with 40 percent more funding.

Zamislite šta bismo mogli da uradimo sa 40 procenata više novca.

We might be able to feed the front row.

Možda bismo mogli da nahranimo prvi red.

The thing that I fear, the only thing that I fear,

Jedina stvar koje se plašim,

apart from the fact that I've run out of time,

osim činjenice da mi je isteklo vreme,

is that the window of opportunity for this idea

je da je rok za izvođenje ove ideje

is a short one.

veoma kratak.

Today, money creation by central banks

Danas, novac koji prave centralne banke

is an accepted policy tool.

je prihvaćeno oruđe politike.

That may not always be the case.

To ne mora uvek biti slučaj.

Today there are universally agreed aims

Danas postoje opšteprihvaćeni ciljevi

for international aid.

za međunarodnu pomoć.

That may not always be the case.

To ne mora uvek biti slučaj.

Today might be the only time

Danas je možda jedino vreme

that these two things coincide,

kada se ove dve stvari podudaraju,

such that we can afford the aid

tako da možemo da priuštimo pomoć

that we've always aspired to give.

koju smo uvek težili da damo.

So, can we print money for international aid?

Da li možemo da štampamo novac za međunarodnu pomoć?

I seriously believe the question should be,

Ozbiljno mislim da bi pitanje trebalo da bude,

why not?

zašto da ne?

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)