Michael Metcalfe: We need money for aid. So let's print it.

翻译人员: Li Li 校对人员: Zhiting Chen

Thirteen years ago,

十三年前

we set ourselves a goal to end poverty.

我们设了一个目标， 要结束贫困

After some success,

在取得一些小成功后

we've hit a big hurdle.

我们遇到了瓶颈

The aftermath of the financial crisis

财政危机的后果

has begun to hit aid payments,

开始冲击救助款项

which have fallen for two consecutive years.

而且连续两年都在减少

My question is whether the lessons learned

我的问题就是， 从挽救财政系统中

from saving the financial system

得到的这些教训

can be used to help us overcome that hurdle

能否用来帮助我们克服这瓶颈

and help millions.

也帮助数以百万的人民

Can we simply print money for aid?

我们是否能直接印钞以提供救助呢？

"Surely not."

“当然不可以。”

It's a common reaction.

这是人们正常的反应

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It's a quick talk.

这是一个短对话

Others channel John McEnroe.

人们和约翰·麦肯罗的对话

"You cannot be serious!"

“你开玩笑的吧！”

Now, I can't do the accent, but I am serious,

我没办法模仿他的口音， 但我是认真的

thanks to these two children,

多亏了这两个孩子

who, as you'll learn, are very much at the heart

等下你们就会知道， 他们是我这个演讲

of my talk.

的中心

On the left, we have Pia.

左边这个女孩，名叫皮娅

She lives in England.

她住在英格兰

She has two loving parents,

她的双亲都很和蔼可亲

one of whom is standing right here.

其中一个，就站在这里

Dorothy, on the right,

桃乐茜，右边的孩子

lives in rural Kenya.

住在肯尼亚农村

She's one of 13,000 orphans

她是一万三千孤儿

and vulnerable children

和弱势儿童中的一员

who are assisted by a charity that I support.

她在接受我所资助的 一个慈善机构的帮助

I do that because I believe

我这么做，是因为我相信

that Dorothy, like Pia,

桃乐茜，像皮娅一样

deserves the best life chances

值得拥有我们能给予她的

that we can afford to give her.

最好的生活条件

You'll all agree with me, I'm sure.

我相信你们会同意我的话的

The U.N. agrees too.

联合国也这么认为

Their overriding aim

他们对于国际援助

for international aid

的最高目标

is to strive for a life of dignity for all.

就是为所有人争取生命的尊严

But -- and here's that hurdle --

但，这儿出现了瓶颈

can we afford our aid aspirations?

我们能负担得起这样的援助渴望吗？

History suggests not.

历史告诉我们，不能

In 1970, governments set themselves a target

在1970年，政府们给自己定了个目标

to increase overseas aid payments

要增加海外的救助款项

to 0.7 percent

增加到占国民收入

of their national income.

的0.7%

As you can see, a big gap opens up

在这里你能看到， 在实际救助和目标之间

between actual aid and that target.

出现了一个大的空缺

But then come the Millennium Development Goals,

接着，出来了“千年发展目标”

eight ambitious targets

要在2015年前

to be met by 2015.

要完成八大目标

If I tell you that just one of those targets

如果我告诉你们，其中一个目标

is to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty,

就是要消除极度饥饿和贫困

you get a sense of the ambition.

你们会觉得这雄心勃勃

There's also been some success.

还是取得一些成功的

The number of people living

每天生活费低于1.25美金的人数

on less than $1.25 a day has halved.

已经减少了一半

But a lot remains to be done in two years.

当然未来的两年还有很多的事要做

One in eight remain hungry.

还有八分之一的人口处于饥饿的水平

In the context of this auditorium,

拿这个讲厅打个比方

the front two rows aren't going to get any food.

前两排的观众将得不到任何食物

We can't settle for that,

这点我们没法满足

which is why the concern about the eighth goal,

这就是为什么第八个目标

which relates to funding,

是如此的麻烦

which I said at the beginning is falling,

因为它涉及到资金

is so troubling.

就是我开头说的开始在减少的资金

So what can be done?

那么，我们能做什么呢？

Well, I work in financial markets,

嗯，我从事金融市场工作

not development.

不是发展研究

I study the behavior of investors,

我研究投资者的行为

how they react to policy and the economy.

研究他们如何应对政策和经济

It gives me a different angle on the aid issue.

这在救助问题上给我新的启迪

But it took an innocent question

但是当时我年仅四岁的女儿

from my then-four-year-old daughter

问的一个童真的问题

to make me appreciate that.

让我对此心有感激

Pia and I were on the way to a local cafe

当时皮娅和我正在去 当地一家咖啡厅的路上

and we passed a man collecting for charity.

我们经过了一个 为慈善募捐的男人身边

I didn't have any change to give him,

我当时没有给他零钱

and she was disappointed.

她就有些失望了

Once in the cafe, Pia takes out her coloring book

到了咖啡厅， 皮娅拿出她的图画本

and starts scribbling.

开始涂画

After a little while, I ask her what she's doing,

过了一会儿， 我问她在干什么

and she shows me a drawing

她给我看了她画的

of a £5 note

一张5欧元的钞票

to give to the man outside.

要给外面的那个男子

It's so sweet,

非常温馨

and more generous than Dad would have been.

远比她爸爸要慷慨得多

But of course I explained to her,

当然我跟她解释

"You can't do that; it's not allowed."

“你不能这么做，这行不通得。”

To which I get the classic four-year-old response:

结果我得到的是四岁小孩经典的回答：

"Why not?"

“为什么啊？”

Now I'm excited, because I actually think

现在我有点激动了， 因为我觉得

I can answer this time.

我现在可以回答这个问题了

So I launch into an explanation of how

所以我开始解释

an unlimited supply of money

无限量供应的货币

chasing a limited number of goods

去购买限量供应的商品

sends prices to the moon.

是会把价格抬高到离谱的地步的

Something about that exchange stuck with me,

这次的交流让我久久不能忘怀

not because of the look of relief

并不是因为在我快要结束的时候

on Pia's face when I finally finished,

皮娅脸上露出安心的表情

but because it related

而是因为

to the sanctity of the money supply,

它涉及到货币供应的神圣性

a sanctity that had been challenged and questioned

这种神圣性一直被中央银行

by the reaction of central banks

对财政危机的反应

to the financial crisis.

所挑战和质疑

To reassure investors,

为了使投资方安心

central banks began buying assets

中央银行开始购置资产

to try and encourage investors to do the same.

尝试鼓励投资者也这么做

They funded these purchases

他们用他们自己造出来的钱

with money they created themselves.

去投资这些购置

The money wasn't actually physically printed.

而这些钱并没有真正被印刷出来

It's still sort of locked away in the banking system today.

在今天这笔钱仍处于 被“锁”在银行系统的状态

But the amount created was unprecedented.

但造出来的这笔钱的数量却是空前的

Together, the central banks of the U.S.,

各国的中央银行，美国

U.K and Japan

英国和日本

increased the stock of money in their economies

都一起增加了各自经济的货币存量

by 3.7 trillion dollars.

增加了3.7万亿美金 （人民币约22.2万亿元）

That's three times, in fact that's more than three times,

这是三倍，其实不止三倍

the total physical stock of dollar notes in circulation.

实际流通中的美金货币存量总和

Three times!

三倍啊！

Before the crisis,

在经济危机之前

this would have been utterly unthinkable,

这是完全不能想像的

yet it was accepted remarkably quickly.

但它还是非常快就被接受了

The price of gold,

黄金的价格

an asset thought to protect against inflation,

黄金是被当作用来抵御通货膨胀的

did jump,

确实下跌了

but investors bought other assets

但投资者购买了其他的资产

that offered little protection from inflation.

而这些资产却基本无法抵制通货膨胀

They bought fixed income securities, bonds.

他们购买固定收益证券，债卷

They bought equities too.

他们也买普通股

For all the scare stories,

对于那些吓人的报道

the actual actions of investors

投资者真正的行为

spoke of rapid acceptance and confidence.

显示出快速的接受和信心

That confidence was based on two pillars.

这种信心建立在两个支柱上

The first was that, after years

第一个就是

of keeping inflation under control,

在控制通货膨胀的多年后

central banks were trusted

中央银行被人们所信任

to take the money-printing away

如果通货膨胀构成威胁时

if inflation became a threat.

他们可以停止钞票的印刷

Secondly, inflation simply never became a threat.

第二，通货膨胀单纯来说时不会成为威胁的

As you can see, in the United States,

正如你所见到的，在美国

inflation for most of this period

这个阶段大部分时间的通货膨胀

remained below average.

都低于平均数

It was the same elsewhere.

在别的地方也一样

So how does all this relate to aid?

那么所有的这一切是怎么 和救助这个事儿挂钩的呢？

Well, this is where Dorothy

这就是桃乐茜

and the Mango Tree charity

和资助她的芒果树慈善机构

that supports her comes in.

开始出现

I was at one of their fundraising events

在今年年初的时候

earlier this year,

我在一个募捐活动上

and I was inspired to give a one-off donation

我当时受到了鼓舞，捐了一笔捐款

when I remembered that my firm

然后我想起我的公司

offers to match the charitable contributions

答应会根据自己员工捐款的数额

its employees make.

再捐同样的数额

So think of this:

所以这么想：

Instead of just being able to help Dorothy

我不单能帮助到桃乐茜

and four of her classmates

还有她的四个同学

to go through secondary school for a few years,

帮助他们完成中学几年的学业

I was able to double my contribution.

我能够让我的贡献翻倍

Brilliant.

这真是太棒了

So following that conversation with my daughter,

所以想着我和女儿的对话

and seeing the absence of inflation

看着面临钞票印刷时

in the face of money-printing,

消失的通货膨胀

and knowing that international aid payments

以及知道国际救助款项

were falling at just the wrong time,

在不恰当的时间被减少了

this made me wonder:

这让我好奇：

Could we match

我们能否

but just on a much grander scale?

在规模上提高一个等级？

Let's call this scheme "Print Aid."

让我们把这个计划成为“印救”

And here's how it might work.

下面解释一下它的运作

Provided it saw little inflation risk from doing so,

假设这样做基本没什么通货膨胀的风险

the central bank would be mandated

中央银行需被强制采取措施

to match the government's overseas aid payments

以达到政府的海外救助款项

up to a certain limit.

所设定的一个限度

Governments have been aiming to get aid

政府这几年来都试图

to 0.7 percent for years,

让救助款项达到0.7%的数额

so let's set the limit at half of that,

那么我们就把限制定在一半吧

0.35 percent of their income.

就是收入的0.35%

So it would work like this: If in a given year

所以它会这样运作：如果在某一年

the government gave 0.2 percent of its income

政府把收入的0.2%

to overseas aid,

拨给海外救助

the central bank would simply top it up

那么中央银行只要把它的款项

with a further 0.2 percent.

提高多0.2％就可以了

So far so good.

目前感觉还不错吧

How risky is this?

这样做的风险有多大？

Well, this involves the creation of money

它其实涉及到制造货币

to buy goods, not assets.

去购买商品，而非资产

It sounds more inflationary already, doesn't it.

听起来有点通货膨胀了，对吧

But there are two important mitigating factors here.

但这里有两个重要的缓解因素

The first is that by definition,

第一个，就是从定义上说

this money printed would be spent overseas.

印制出来的钞票会被投放到海外

So it's not obvious how it leads to inflation

所以印刷钞票对国内而言

in the country doing the actual printing

不大可能会导致通货膨胀

unless it leads to a currency depreciation of that country.

除非它导致了这个国家的货币贬值

That is unlikely for the second reason:

这也不大可能出现，因为有第二个原因：

the scale of the money that would be printed

取决于在这个计划下

under this scheme.

印刷钞票的规模

So let's think of an example

举个例子

where Print Aid was in place

比如“印救”计划在

in the U.S., U.K. and Japan.

美国，英国和日本实施

To match the aid payments made

为了达到政府们在过去四年里

by those governments over the last four years,

在救助款项达到的数目

Print Aid would have generated

“印救”会提供

200 billion dollars' worth of extra aid.

额外的两千亿美金给救助款项

What would that look like

会出现怎样的情况？

in the context of the increase in the money stock

当这些国家

that had already happened in those countries

为了拯救财政系统

to save the financial system?

已提高货币储存量

Are you read for this?

准备好听答案了吗？

You might struggle to see that at the back,

在后面你可能会看不清

because the gap is quite small.

因为这个空缺很小

So what we're saying here

所以我们这里说的

is that we took a $3.7 trillion gamble

是我们拿了3.7万亿美金孤注一掷

to save our financial systems,

去缓解我们的财政系统压力

and you know what, it paid off.

结果呢，它见成效了

There was no inflation.

没有通货膨胀

Are we really saying that it's not worth the risk

那么，为了救援而额外印多2千亿钞票

to print an extra 200 billion for aid?

这样的风险真的不值得去承担吗？

Would the risks really be that different?

这些风险真的会有很大区别吗？

To me, it's not that clear.

对我来说，这是比较模糊的概念

What is clear is the impact on aid.

而对救援产生的影响则是清晰的

Even though this is the printing

哪怕印钞仅仅只是

of just three central banks,

三家中央银行的事

the global aid that's given

但是这个阶段给出的国籍援助

over this period is up by almost 40 percent.

也已经上升了接近40个百分点

Aid as a proportion of national income

援助作为国民收入的一部分

all of a sudden is at a 40-year high.

突然就上升到了40年来的最高点

Now, we don't get to 0.7 percent.

那么，假设我们没有达到0.7%那个点

Governments are still incentivized to give.

政府也会被要求付诸行动

But you know what, that's the point of a matching scheme.

但你们知道吗，那个点就是和计划匹配的点

So I think what we've learned

所以我觉得，我们了解到的是

is that the risks from this money creation scheme

这个印钞计划中潜在的风险

are quite modest,

是相当温和的

but the benefits

但是收益呢

are potentially huge.

则是非常庞大

Imagine what we could do with 40 percent more funding.

想像一下这多出来的40%的资金， 我们能做多少事情

We might be able to feed the front row.

我们估计可以养得起 前排的观众了

The thing that I fear, the only thing that I fear,

我担心的事情， 且唯一担心的事情

apart from the fact that I've run out of time,

除了我已经没什么时间这个事实外

is that the window of opportunity for this idea

就是实施这个想法的时间机会

is a short one.

非常短暂

Today, money creation by central banks

今天，中央银行的货币创造

is an accepted policy tool.

是一个公认的政策工具

That may not always be the case.

但这并不是一直都这样

Today there are universally agreed aims

如今在国际援助上

for international aid.

我们有世界普遍认可的目标

That may not always be the case.

但这也并不是一直都这样

Today might be the only time

现在可能是这两种事物

that these two things coincide,

同时被认可实行的唯一时机

such that we can afford the aid

这样我们就能负担起这些援助

that we've always aspired to give.

这些我们一直都很想给予的援助

So, can we print money for international aid?

所以，我们能为国籍援助而印刷钞票吗？

I seriously believe the question should be,

我坚决相信这是可行的

why not?

为什么不呢？

Thank you very much.

非常感谢

(Applause)

（掌声）