Michael Metcalfe: We need money for aid. So let's print it.

59,415 views ・ 2014-02-26

TED


μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

λ²ˆμ—­: Kevin Jin κ²€ν† : Sanghyun Hahn
00:12
Thirteen years ago,
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13λ…„ μ „
00:15
we set ourselves a goal to end poverty.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 빈곀 μ’…μ‹μ΄λΌλŠ” λͺ©ν‘œλ₯Ό μ„Έμ› μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:21
After some success,
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μ–΄λŠ 정도 성곡이 μžˆμ€ 후에
00:24
we've hit a big hurdle.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 큰 μž₯애에 λΆ€λ”ͺμ³€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:27
The aftermath of the financial crisis
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κΈˆμœ΅μœ„κΈ°μ˜ ν›„μœ μ¦μœΌλ‘œ
00:29
has begun to hit aid payments,
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원쑰지급 λ¬Έμ œμ— λΆ€λ‹₯치게 λ˜μ—ˆλŠ”λ°,
00:32
which have fallen for two consecutive years.
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원쑰 지급은 2λ…„ 연속 ν•˜λ½ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:37
My question is whether the lessons learned
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제 μ˜λ¬Έμ€ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ κΈˆμœ΅μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ„
00:41
from saving the financial system
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μ§€μΌœλ‚΄λ©΄μ„œ 배운 κ΅ν›ˆμ„
00:45
can be used to help us overcome that hurdle
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μž₯μ• λ₯Ό κ·Ήλ³΅ν•˜κ³  수백만λͺ…을 λ•λŠ”λ°
00:48
and help millions.
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μ‚¬μš©ν•  수 μžˆμ§€ μ•Šμ„κΉŒ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:51
Can we simply print money for aid?
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돕기 μœ„ν•΄ κ·Έλƒ₯ 화폐λ₯Ό λ°œν–‰ν•  수 있죠?
00:58
"Surely not."
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"μ ˆλŒ€ μ•ˆλΌ"
01:00
It's a common reaction.
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이게 일반적인 λ°˜μ‘μ΄μ£ 
01:02
(Laughter)
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(μ›ƒμŒ)
01:03
It's a quick talk.
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즉ν₯적인 μ–˜κΈ°μ£ .
01:05
Others channel John McEnroe.
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μ–΄λ–€ μ‚¬λžŒμ€ μ‘΄ λ§€μΌ„λ‘œλ₯Ό 흉내 λ‚΄λ©΄μ„œ
01:10
"You cannot be serious!"
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"λ‹Ήμ‹  μ§„λ‹΄μœΌλ‘œ κ·ΈλŸ¬λŠ” 건 μ•„λ‹ˆκ² μ£ !" (μ‘΄λ§€μΌ„λ‘œκ°€ μ‹¬νŒμ—κ²Œ ν•­μ˜ν•˜λ©΄μ„œ 유λͺ…해진 말)
01:12
Now, I can't do the accent, but I am serious,
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μ§€κΈˆ, κ·Έ 얡양을 따라 ν•˜μ§„ λͺ»ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ €λŠ” μ§„μ§€ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:17
thanks to these two children,
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μ—¬κΈ° 두 μ•„μ΄λ“€μ—κ²Œ κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:21
who, as you'll learn, are very much at the heart
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ„ μ•Œκ²Œ λ˜μ‹œκ² μ§€λ§Œ, 이 아이듀은 제 μ–˜κΈ°μ˜
01:25
of my talk.
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μ •μˆ˜(η²Ύι«“ )μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:27
On the left, we have Pia.
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μ™Όμͺ½μ— ν”Όμ•„κ°€ μžˆλ„€μš”
01:30
She lives in England.
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κ·Έ μ•„μ΄λŠ” μž‰κΈ€λžœλ“œμ— μ‚΄κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:32
She has two loving parents,
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μ• μ •μ–΄λ¦° 두 λΆ€λͺ¨κ°€ μžˆκ³ μš”
01:35
one of whom is standing right here.
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κ·Έ λΆ€λͺ¨ 쀑 ν•œ λͺ…은 λ°”λ‘œ μ €μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:40
Dorothy, on the right,
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였λ₯Έμͺ½μ€ λ„λ‘œμ‹œμΈλ°,
01:42
lives in rural Kenya.
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케냐 전원에 μ‚΄κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:45
She's one of 13,000 orphans
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κ·Έ μ•„μ΄λŠ” 13,000 λͺ…μ˜ 고아와
01:48
and vulnerable children
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μ—°μ•½ν•œ 아이듀 쀑에 ν•œλͺ…μœΌλ‘œ
01:49
who are assisted by a charity that I support.
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μ œκ°€ μ§€μ›ν•˜λŠ” μžμ„ λ‹¨μ²΄μ˜ 도움을 λ°›κ³  μžˆλŠ” 아이죠.
01:54
I do that because I believe
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μ €λŠ” 이 일을 ν•˜λŠ” μ΄μœ λŠ”
01:57
that Dorothy, like Pia,
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ν”Όμ•„μ²˜λŸΌ λ„λ‘œμ‹œλ„
02:00
deserves the best life chances
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ œκ³΅ν•  수 μžˆλŠ”
02:03
that we can afford to give her.
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μ΅œμ„ μ˜ μ‚Άμ˜ 기회λ₯Ό λˆ„λ¦΄ 자격이 μžˆλ‹€κ³  λ―ΏκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:05
You'll all agree with me, I'm sure.
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ λͺ¨λ‘ μ €μ—κ²Œ λ™μ˜ ν•˜μ‹€ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ €λŠ” ν™•μ‹ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:08
The U.N. agrees too.
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UN λ˜ν•œ λ™μ˜ ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:11
Their overriding aim
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무엇보닀 μš°μ„ μ‹œ λ˜λŠ” κ·Έλ“€μ˜ λͺ©ν‘œλŠ”
02:13
for international aid
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ꡭ제적 원쑰에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ
02:15
is to strive for a life of dignity for all.
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λͺ¨λ‘λ₯Ό μœ„ν•œ μ‘΄μ—„ν•œ μ‚Άμ˜ μΆ”κ΅¬μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:21
But -- and here's that hurdle --
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜, 여기에 μž₯μ• κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:26
can we afford our aid aspirations?
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ›μ‘°ν•˜κ³  싢은 생각을 κ°€μ§ˆ ν˜•νŽΈμ΄ λ κΉŒμš”?
02:30
History suggests not.
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μ—­μ‚¬μ μœΌλ‘œ 보면 μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:34
In 1970, governments set themselves a target
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1970λ…„, μ •λΆ€λŠ” λͺ©ν‘œλ₯Ό μ„Έμ› λŠ”λ°
02:39
to increase overseas aid payments
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ν•΄μ™Έ 원쑰지급을
02:42
to 0.7 percent
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κ΅­λ―Όμ†Œλ“μ˜ 0.7%κΉŒμ§€
02:44
of their national income.
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λŠ˜λ¦¬λŠ” κ²ƒμ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:45
As you can see, a big gap opens up
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λ³΄μ‹œλ‹€μ‹œν”Ό, μ‹€μ œ 원쑰와 λͺ©ν‘œ 사이에
02:50
between actual aid and that target.
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큰 차이가 λ²Œμ–΄μ Έ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:54
But then come the Millennium Development Goals,
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ν•˜κΈ΄ μƒˆμ²œλ…„κ°œλ°œκ³„νš(2000λ…„ UN 채택)이 λ‚˜μ™”λŠ”λ°
02:59
eight ambitious targets
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8개의 야심찬 λͺ©ν‘œλ₯Ό
03:01
to be met by 2015.
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2015λ…„κΉŒμ§€ λ‹¬μ„±ν•˜μžλŠ” κ²ƒμ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:05
If I tell you that just one of those targets
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그런 κ³„νšμ€‘μ— ν•˜λ‚˜κ°€ μ‹¬ν•œ 기아와
03:08
is to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty,
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빈곀의 κ·Όμ ˆμ΄λΌλŠ” 것을 말씀 λ“œλ¦¬λ©΄
03:12
you get a sense of the ambition.
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야심찬 κ³„νšμž„μ„ λŠλ‚„ 수 있죠.
03:15
There's also been some success.
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λ˜ν•œ μ–΄λŠ μ •λ„μ˜ 성곡이 μžˆμ–΄ μ™”μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:18
The number of people living
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ν•˜λ£¨μ— $1.25 미만의 돈으둜 μ‚¬λŠ”
03:20
on less than $1.25 a day has halved.
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μ‚¬λžŒμ˜ μˆ˜κ°€ 절반으둜 μ€„μ–΄λ“€μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:26
But a lot remains to be done in two years.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 2λ…„ 내에 ν•΄μ•Ό ν•  일이 λ§ŽμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:29
One in eight remain hungry.
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8λͺ…쀑에 1λͺ…은 μ—¬μ „νžˆ ꡢ주리고 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:33
In the context of this auditorium,
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μ—¬κΈ° 객석을 가지고 μ–˜κΈ° ν•˜μžλ©΄
03:36
the front two rows aren't going to get any food.
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μ•žμ— 두 쀄은 μ–΄λ–€ μŒμ‹λ„ 얻지 λͺ»ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:40
We can't settle for that,
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 그것에 μ•ˆμ£Όν•  수 μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:42
which is why the concern about the eighth goal,
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κ·Έλ ‡κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ— μ—¬λŸμ§Έ λͺ©ν‘œλŠ” κ½€ 골치 μ•„ν”•λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:47
which relates to funding,
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그것은 자금 쑰달과 κ΄€λ ¨λœ 것인데,
03:49
which I said at the beginning is falling,
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μ•žμ—μ„œ λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦° λŒ€λ‘œ
03:52
is so troubling.
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자금 쑰달은 ν˜„μž¬ 쒋은 μ„±κ³Όλ₯Ό 거두지 λͺ»ν•˜κ³  있기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:56
So what can be done?
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그러면 무엇을 ν•  수 μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
03:58
Well, I work in financial markets,
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음, μ €λŠ” κΈˆμœ΅μ‹œμž₯에 μ’…μ‚¬ν•˜κ³  있으며
04:01
not development.
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μ‚¬νšŒκ°œλ°œλΆ„μ•ΌλŠ” μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:04
I study the behavior of investors,
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μ €λŠ” 투자자 행동을 μ—°κ΅¬ν•˜κ³  있으며
04:07
how they react to policy and the economy.
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μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 그듀이 μ •μ±…κ³Ό κ²½μ œμ— λ°˜μ‘ν•˜λŠ”μ§€ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:12
It gives me a different angle on the aid issue.
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그둜 인해 μ €λŠ” 원쑰 λ¬Έμ œμ— κ΄€ν•œ λ…νŠΉν•œ 관점을 μ–»κ²Œ λ˜μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:17
But it took an innocent question
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ œκ°€ 그것에 κ°μ‚¬ν•˜κ²Œ 된 것은
04:19
from my then-four-year-old daughter
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λ‹Ήμ‹œ 4μ‚΄μ΄λ˜ λ”Έ 아이가 λ˜μ§„
04:22
to make me appreciate that.
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μˆœμ§„ν•œ 질문 λ•λΆ„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:26
Pia and I were on the way to a local cafe
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피아와 μ €λŠ” κ°€κΉŒμš΄ μΉ΄νŽ˜μ— κ°€λŠ” κΈΈμ΄μ—ˆλŠ”λ°
04:29
and we passed a man collecting for charity.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μžμ„ μ„ κ΅¬κ±Έν•˜λŠ” λ‚¨μžλ₯Ό μ§€λ‚˜μΉ˜κ²Œ λ˜μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:34
I didn't have any change to give him,
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μ €λŠ” κ·Έμ—κ²Œ 쀄 μž”λˆμ΄ μ—†μ—ˆκ³ 
04:35
and she was disappointed.
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제 λ”Έ μ•„μ΄λŠ” μ‹€λ§ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:38
Once in the cafe, Pia takes out her coloring book
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μΉ΄νŽ˜μ— μžˆλŠ”λ°, ν”Όμ•„λŠ” μΉ ν•˜κΈ° 그림책을 κΊΌλ‚΄λ”λ‹ˆ
04:42
and starts scribbling.
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무언가λ₯Ό 긁적거리기 μ‹œμž‘ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:43
After a little while, I ask her what she's doing,
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μž μ‹œν›„μ—, μ œκ°€ λ”Έμ•„μ΄μ—κ²Œ λ­ν•˜λƒκ³  λ¬Όμ—ˆμ£ ,
04:47
and she shows me a drawing
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λ”Έ μ•„μ΄λŠ” μ €μ—κ²Œ 그림을 보여 μ£ΌλŠ”λ°
04:50
of a Β£5 note
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5νŒŒμš΄λ“œμ§œλ¦¬ μ§€νμ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
04:52
to give to the man outside.
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밖에 μžˆλŠ” κ·Έ λ‚¨μžμ—κ²Œ μ£Όκ² λ‹€κ³ μš”.
04:54
It's so sweet,
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정말 λ‹€μ •ν•˜κ³ 
04:55
and more generous than Dad would have been.
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κ·Έ λ™μ•ˆ μ•„λΉ κ°€ ν•΄ 온 μ–΄λ–€ 것보닀 κ΄€λŒ€ν•œ κ²ƒμ΄μ§€μš”.
04:58
But of course I explained to her,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ λ¬Όλ‘  λ”Έμ•„μ΄μ—κ²Œ μ„€λͺ…ν–ˆμ£ 
05:00
"You can't do that; it's not allowed."
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"κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ ν•  μˆ˜μ—†λ‹¨λ‹€; μ•ˆλΌ"
05:03
To which I get the classic four-year-old response:
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그리고 μ „ λ„€μ‚΄ 된 μ•„μ΄μ˜ μ „ν˜•μ μΈ λ°˜μ‘μ„ λ“£κ²Œ λ˜μ—ˆμ£ .
05:08
"Why not?"
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"μ™œ μ•ˆλΌ?"
05:10
Now I'm excited, because I actually think
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μ§€κΈˆ μ €λŠ” ν₯λΆ„ν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”λ°, μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ μ΄λ²ˆμ—λŠ”
05:12
I can answer this time.
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λ‹΅λ³€ν•  수 μžˆμ„ 거라고 μ‹€μ œ μƒκ°ν•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ 
05:14
So I launch into an explanation of how
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μ–΄μ¨Œλ“  μ „ μ„€λͺ…을 μ‹œμž‘ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
05:17
an unlimited supply of money
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μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ λ¬΄ν•œν•œ ν™”νμ˜ 곡급이
05:21
chasing a limited number of goods
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μƒν’ˆμ΄ ν•œμ •λœ μƒνƒœμ—μ„œ
05:24
sends prices to the moon.
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가격을 λ‹¬κΉŒμ§€ 날렀보낼 수 μžˆλŠ”μ§€ λ§μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:31
Something about that exchange stuck with me,
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ λŒ€ν™”λ₯Ό μ£Όκ³  λ°›μœΌλ©΄μ„œ 무언가가 μ €λ₯Ό μ‚¬λ‘œμž‘μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:35
not because of the look of relief
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μ œκ°€ λ§ˆμΉ¨λ‚΄ λλƒˆμ„ λ•Œμ—
05:37
on Pia's face when I finally finished,
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μ•ˆλ„ν•˜λŠ” ν”Όμ•„ μ–Όκ΅΄μ˜ λͺ¨μŠ΅ λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄ μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
05:39
but because it related
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ν™”νκ³΅κΈ‰μ˜ 신성함과
05:44
to the sanctity of the money supply,
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κ΄€λ ¨λœ 것이기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄κ³ ,
05:49
a sanctity that had been challenged and questioned
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신성함은 도전 λ°›μ•„ μ™”κ³  의문이 제기 λ˜μ–΄ μ™”λŠ”λ°
05:53
by the reaction of central banks
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κΈˆμœ΅μœ„κΈ°μ— λŒ€ν•œ μ€‘μ•™μ€ν–‰μ˜
05:56
to the financial crisis.
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λ°˜μ‘μ— μ˜ν•΄μ„œμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:59
To reassure investors,
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투자자λ₯Ό μ•ˆμ‹¬μ‹œν‚€κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œ
06:01
central banks began buying assets
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쀑앙은행은 μžμ‚°μ„ λ§€μž…ν•˜κΈ° μ‹œμž‘ν–ˆλŠ”λ°
06:06
to try and encourage investors to do the same.
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μ΄λŠ” νˆ¬μžμžλ“€μ˜ 동쑰λ₯Ό μ΄λŒμ–΄ λ‚΄κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œμ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:11
They funded these purchases
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쀑앙은행은 μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ λ§€μž…μ„ μœ„ν•΄ μžκΈˆμ„ λ§ˆλ ¨ν•˜λŠ”λ°
06:15
with money they created themselves.
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쀑앙은행이 직접 λ§Œλ“€μ–΄ λ‚Έ 화폐λ₯Ό μ‚¬μš©ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:18
The money wasn't actually physically printed.
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κ·Έ ν™”νλŠ” μ‹€μ œ 물리적으둜 μΈμ‡„λ˜λŠ” 것은 μ•„λ‹ˆμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:22
It's still sort of locked away in the banking system today.
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μ˜€λŠ˜λ‚  λ±…ν‚Ήμ‹œμŠ€ν…œ(체계)에 보관 λ˜μ–΄ μžˆλŠ” 것 같은 κ²ƒμ΄μ§€μš”.
06:25
But the amount created was unprecedented.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ λ§Œλ“€μ–΄μ§„ 총앑은 μ „λ‘€μ—†λŠ” κ²ƒμ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:30
Together, the central banks of the U.S.,
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합쳐보면, λ―Έκ΅­, 영ꡭ, 일본의
06:34
U.K and Japan
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쀑앙은행듀은
06:36
increased the stock of money in their economies
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κ·Έ λ‚˜λΌ κ²½μ œμ— μžˆμ–΄ ν†΅ν™”λŸ‰μ„
06:39
by 3.7 trillion dollars.
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3.7μ‘° 뢈 μ¦λŒ€μ‹œμΌ°μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:43
That's three times, in fact that's more than three times,
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μ„Έ λ°°μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€, 사싀 μ„Έ λ°° 이상이죠
06:47
the total physical stock of dollar notes in circulation.
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μœ ν†΅λ˜λŠ” λ‹¬λŸ¬ μ§€νμ˜ μ΄λ³΄μœ λŸ‰ λ§μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:51
Three times!
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μ„Έ λ°°μš” !
06:56
Before the crisis,
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κΈˆμœ΅μœ„κΈ° μ „μ—λŠ”
06:58
this would have been utterly unthinkable,
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상상할 μˆ˜λ„ μ—†μ—ˆλ˜ κ²ƒμ΄μ—ˆμ£ 
07:03
yet it was accepted remarkably quickly.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ ꡉμž₯히 빨리 λ°›μ•„ λ“€μ—¬μ‘ŒμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:10
The price of gold,
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μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜μ„ 막을 수 μžˆλ‹€κ³  μ—¬κ²¨μ§€λŠ”
07:12
an asset thought to protect against inflation,
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μžμ‚°μΈ 금의 가격은
07:15
did jump,
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μ˜¬λžμœΌλ‚˜
07:18
but investors bought other assets
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νˆ¬μžμžλŠ” λ‹€λ₯Έ μžμ‚°μ„ λ§€μž…ν–ˆλŠ”λ°
07:20
that offered little protection from inflation.
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μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜μœΌλ‘œλΆ€ν„° 보호λ₯Ό 받지 λͺ»ν•˜λŠ” μžμ‚°μ΄μ§€μš”
07:23
They bought fixed income securities, bonds.
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그듀은 κ³ μ •κΈˆλ¦¬λΆ€ 증ꢌ, μ±„κΆŒμ„ λ§€μž…ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:27
They bought equities too.
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λ˜ν•œ 주식도 λ§€μž…ν–ˆμ£ .
07:29
For all the scare stories,
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λͺ¨λ“  κ²λ‚˜λŠ” 이야기에도 λΆˆκ΅¬ν•˜κ³ ,
07:32
the actual actions of investors
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μ‹€μ œ 투자자의 행동은
07:35
spoke of rapid acceptance and confidence.
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μ‹ μ†ν•œ 인정과 μ‹ λ’°λ₯Ό 말해 μ€λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:42
That confidence was based on two pillars.
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κ·Έ μ‹ λ’°λŠ” 두 개의 κΈ°λ‘₯을 κ·Όκ°„μœΌλ‘œ ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:47
The first was that, after years
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μ²«λ²ˆμ§ΈλŠ”, μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜μ„
07:50
of keeping inflation under control,
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ν†΅μ œν•˜κ³  λ‚œ ν›„λΆ€ν„°,
07:53
central banks were trusted
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쀑앙은행은
07:56
to take the money-printing away
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λ§Œμ•½ μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜μ΄ μœ„ν˜‘μ΄ λœλ‹€λ©΄
07:59
if inflation became a threat.
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화폐 λ°œν–‰μ„ μ€‘λ‹¨ν•œλ‹€λŠ” μ‹ λ’°λ₯Ό μ–»μ—ˆμ£ .
08:03
Secondly, inflation simply never became a threat.
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λ‘λ²ˆμ§ΈλŠ”, μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜μ€ 단지 μ „ν˜€ μœ„ν˜‘μ΄ λ˜μ§€ λͺ»ν–ˆμ£ .
08:09
As you can see, in the United States,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ„ λ³΄μ‹œλ‹€μ‹œν”Ό, λ―Έκ΅­μ—μ„œλŠ”
08:11
inflation for most of this period
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이 λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„μ˜ κΈ°κ°„ λ™μ•ˆ μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜μ€
08:13
remained below average.
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ν‰κ· μ΄ν•˜μ— λ¨Έλ¬Όλ €μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:16
It was the same elsewhere.
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λ‹€λ₯Έ 곳도 λ§ˆμ°¬κ°€μ§€μ˜€μ£ .
08:20
So how does all this relate to aid?
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κ·Έλ ‡λ‹€λ©΄, 이 λͺ¨λ“  것이 원쑰와 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 관계과 μžˆλŠ” κ²ƒμΌκΉŒμš”?
08:23
Well, this is where Dorothy
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자, μ—¬κΈ° λ„λ‘œμ‹œμ™€
08:27
and the Mango Tree charity
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κ·Έλ…€λ₯Ό μ§€μ›ν•˜λŠ” '망고 트리'λΌλŠ”
08:29
that supports her comes in.
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μžμ„ λ‹¨μ²΄κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:32
I was at one of their fundraising events
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μ €λŠ” μ˜¬ν•΄ 초 μžμ„ κΈ°κΈˆ λͺ¨κΈˆ 행사 쀑
08:34
earlier this year,
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ν•œ 행사에 μžˆμ—ˆκ³ ,
08:35
and I was inspired to give a one-off donation
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μΌνšŒμ„± 기뢀에 μ˜κ°μ„ μ–»μ—ˆλŠ”λ°
08:39
when I remembered that my firm
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저희 νšŒμ‚¬μ—μ„œ 쒅업원이 μ œμ•ˆν•œ
08:42
offers to match the charitable contributions
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μžμ„ κΈ°λΆ€ 연결에 λŒ€ν•œ μ œμ•ˆμ„
08:45
its employees make.
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μ œκ°€ κΈ°μ–΅ν–ˆμ„ λ•Œμ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:48
So think of this:
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그러면 이것을 생각해 λ³΄μ„Έμš”
08:50
Instead of just being able to help Dorothy
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λ„λ‘œμ‹œμ™€
08:53
and four of her classmates
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κ·Έλ…€μ˜ 4λͺ…μ˜ 반 μΉœκ΅¬λ“€μ΄
08:55
to go through secondary school for a few years,
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단지 λͺ‡λ…„λ™μ•ˆ 쀑학ꡐ에 가도둝 λ•λŠ” λŒ€μ‹ μ—
08:58
I was able to double my contribution.
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μ €λŠ” μ €μ˜ κΈ°λΆ€λ₯Ό λ‘λ°°λ‘œ λ§Œλ“€ 수 μžˆμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:02
Brilliant.
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ν›Œλ₯­ν•˜μ£ 
09:04
So following that conversation with my daughter,
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 제 λ”Έκ³Όμ˜ λŒ€ν™” 후에
09:10
and seeing the absence of inflation
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ν™”νλ°œν–‰μ—λ„ λΆˆκ΅¬ν•˜κ³ 
09:13
in the face of money-printing,
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μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜μ΄ μ—†λŠ” 것을 보고
09:15
and knowing that international aid payments
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λΆ€μ μ ˆν•œ μ‹œκΈ°μ— ꡭ제 원쑰 지원이
09:18
were falling at just the wrong time,
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ν•˜λ½ν–ˆλ‹€λŠ” 것을 μ•Œκ²Œ 되자
09:21
this made me wonder:
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μ €λŠ” κΆκΈˆν•΄μ‘ŒμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€:
09:25
Could we match
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 이것을
09:27
but just on a much grander scale?
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μ•„μ£Ό 더 큰 규λͺ¨λ‘œ μ μš©ν•  수 μžˆμ§€ μ•Šμ„κΉŒμš”?
09:34
Let's call this scheme "Print Aid."
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이런 μ œλ„λ₯Ό '원쑰 인쇄'라고 λΆ€λ¦…μ‹œλ‹€
09:38
And here's how it might work.
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그리고 이것이 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ μž‘μš©ν•˜λŠ”μ§€ μ—¬κΈ° μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:41
Provided it saw little inflation risk from doing so,
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λ§Œμ•½μ— κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ ν•˜λŠ”κ²ƒμ΄ μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜ μœ„ν—˜μ΄ 거의 μ—†λ‹€λ©΄
09:46
the central bank would be mandated
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μ •λΆ€μ˜ ν•΄μ™Έ 원쑰지원에 μ μš©ν•˜λ„λ‘
09:48
to match the government's overseas aid payments
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쀑앙은행이 μ–΄λ–€ ν•œλ„κΉŒμ§€
09:51
up to a certain limit.
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μœ„μž„λ°›μ„ 수 μžˆμ„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:54
Governments have been aiming to get aid
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μ •λΆ€λŠ” λͺ‡λ…„에 걸쳐 0.7% 원쑰λ₯Ό
09:56
to 0.7 percent for years,
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λͺ©ν‘œλ‘œ ν•΄ μ™”μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:58
so let's set the limit at half of that,
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ κ·Έκ²ƒμ˜ μ ˆλ°˜μ„ ν•œλ„λ‘œ ν•΄λ΄…μ‹œλ‹€,
10:01
0.35 percent of their income.
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μ†Œλ“μ˜ 0.35%κ°€ λ˜κ² λ„€μš”
10:05
So it would work like this: If in a given year
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그러면 이건 μ΄λ ‡κ²Œ μž‘μš©ν•˜κ² λ„€μš”: λ§Œμ•½ 주어진 κΈ°κ°„ λ™μ•ˆ
10:07
the government gave 0.2 percent of its income
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μ •λΆ€κ°€ μ†Œλ“μ˜ 0.2%λ₯Ό
10:09
to overseas aid,
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해외지원에 μ“΄λ‹€λ©΄
10:11
the central bank would simply top it up
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쀑앙은행이 λ‚˜λ¨Έμ§€ 0.2%λ₯Ό
10:12
with a further 0.2 percent.
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단지 μΆ”κ°€ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:15
So far so good.
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μ—¬κΈ°κΉŒμ§„ μ’‹μ£ 
10:19
How risky is this?
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이것은 μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ μœ„ν—˜ν• κΉŒμš”?
10:22
Well, this involves the creation of money
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자, 이것은 μžμ‚°μ΄ μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ μž¬ν™”λ₯Ό ꡬ맀할 수 μžˆλŠ”
10:26
to buy goods, not assets.
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μ‹ μš©μ°½μ‘°λ₯Ό ν¬ν•¨ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:29
It sounds more inflationary already, doesn't it.
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이게 벌써 μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜μ²˜λŸΌ 듀리죠, 그렇지 μ•Šλ‚˜μš”.
10:32
But there are two important mitigating factors here.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 여기에 μœ„ν—˜μ„ κ²½κ°μ‹œν‚€λŠ” 두가지 μš”μ†Œκ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:37
The first is that by definition,
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μ²«μ§ΈλŠ” 말 κ·ΈλŒ€λ‘œ
10:40
this money printed would be spent overseas.
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λ°œν–‰λœ ν™”νλŠ” ν•΄μ™Έμ—μ„œ μ‚¬μš©λœλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:45
So it's not obvious how it leads to inflation
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ‹€μ œλ‘œ ν™”νŽ˜μ˜ λ°œν–‰μ΄ κ·Έ λ‚˜λΌμ—μ„œ
10:49
in the country doing the actual printing
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μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜μœΌλ‘œ μ΄λ„λŠ”μ§€ λͺ…ν™•ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
10:53
unless it leads to a currency depreciation of that country.
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λ§Œμ•½ κ·Έ λ‚˜λΌ ν™”νκ°€μΉ˜ ν•˜λ½μ„ μ΄ˆλž˜ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šλ‹€λ©΄ 말이죠.
10:58
That is unlikely for the second reason:
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거의 μΌμ–΄λ‚˜μ§€ μ•Šμ„ 것 같은 λ‘λ²ˆμ§Έ μ΄μœ λŠ”:
11:01
the scale of the money that would be printed
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이 μ œλ„μ—μ„œ λ°œν–‰λ˜λŠ” ν™”νμ˜ 규λͺ¨
11:04
under this scheme.
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λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:07
So let's think of an example
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자 예λ₯Ό 생각해 λ³΄μ‹œμ£ 
11:10
where Print Aid was in place
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원쑰 인쇄가
11:14
in the U.S., U.K. and Japan.
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λ―Έκ΅­, 영ꡭ, 일본에 μžˆλ‹€κ³  생각해 보죠
11:18
To match the aid payments made
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μ§€λ‚œ 4년이 λ„˜λ„λ‘ κ·Έ λ‚˜λΌλ“€μ˜ 정뢀에 μ˜ν•΄
11:20
by those governments over the last four years,
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μ‹€ν–‰λœ 원쑰지급에 λ§žμΆ”λ €λ©΄
11:23
Print Aid would have generated
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ν”„λ¦°νŠΈμ—λ“œλŠ” 2μ²œμ–΅λΆˆμ˜ μΆ”κ°€ 지원
11:25
200 billion dollars' worth of extra aid.
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κ°€μΉ˜λ₯Ό λ§Œλ“€μ–΄ λƒˆμœΌλ©΄ λ˜μ—ˆμ„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:30
What would that look like
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이미 그런 λ‚˜λΌλ“€μ—μ„œ 일어 λ‚¬λ˜
11:32
in the context of the increase in the money stock
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ν†΅ν™”λŸ‰μ˜ μ¦κ°€λΌλŠ” λ§₯λ½μ—μ„œ λ³Έλ‹€λ©΄
11:36
that had already happened in those countries
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금육 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ„ μ§€ν‚€λŠ” 것은
11:38
to save the financial system?
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무엇과 κ°™μ„κΉŒμš”?
11:40
Are you read for this?
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ“€ 이 κ·Έλ¦Ό μ½μœΌμ…¨μ–΄μš”?
11:43
You might struggle to see that at the back,
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κ·Έ 차이가 μ•„μ£Ό μž‘κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ—
11:45
because the gap is quite small.
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λ’€μ—μ„œ λ³΄μ‹œκΈ°μ—λŠ” μ•„μ£Ό νž˜λ“œμ‹€ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:49
So what we're saying here
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ λ§ν•˜κ³ μž ν•˜λŠ” 것은
11:51
is that we took a $3.7 trillion gamble
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우리 κΈˆμœ΅μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ„ 지킀기 μœ„ν•΄
11:55
to save our financial systems,
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3μ‘°7μ²œμ–΅λΆˆμ§œλ¦¬ 도박을 ν–ˆλ‹€λŠ” 것이고
11:57
and you know what, it paid off.
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ„ μ•„μ‹œμ£ , κ·Έ 도박은 μ„±κ³΅ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:59
There was no inflation.
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μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜μ€ μ—†μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:02
Are we really saying that it's not worth the risk
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지원을 μœ„ν•΄ μΆ”κ°€ 2μ²œμ–΅λΆˆμ„ λ°œν–‰ν•˜λŠ”
12:05
to print an extra 200 billion for aid?
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μœ„ν—˜μ„ μ§ˆλ§Œν•œ κ°€μΉ˜κ°€ μ—†λ‹€κ³  μ§„μ§œ μ–˜κΈ°ν•  수 μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
12:10
Would the risks really be that different?
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κ·Έ μœ„ν—˜λ“€μ΄ 정말 κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ λ‹€λ₯Έκ±΄κ°€μš”?
12:12
To me, it's not that clear.
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μ €μ—κ²ŒλŠ” 그것이 그리 λͺ…백해보이지 μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:14
What is clear is the impact on aid.
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λͺ…λ°±ν•œ 것은 원쑰에 λŒ€ν•œ 영ν–₯μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:17
Even though this is the printing
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비둝 단지 μ„Έ 쀑앙 μ€ν–‰μ—μ„œ
12:20
of just three central banks,
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λ°œν–‰ν–ˆμŒμ—λ„ λΆˆκ΅¬ν•˜κ³ 
12:21
the global aid that's given
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이 κΈ°κ°„λ™μ•ˆμ— 주어진
12:25
over this period is up by almost 40 percent.
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ꡭ제 지원은 거의 40%κΉŒμ§€ 올라 κ°‘λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:30
Aid as a proportion of national income
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κ΅­λ―Όμ†Œλ“μ˜ μΌλΆ€λΆ„μœΌλ‘œμ„œμ˜ 지원은
12:32
all of a sudden is at a 40-year high.
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μ–΄λŠλ§ 40λ…„λ§Œμ— μ΅œκ³ μΉ˜κ°€ λ˜μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:36
Now, we don't get to 0.7 percent.
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μ§€κΈˆ, μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 0.7%μ—λŠ” λ„λ‹¬ν•˜μ§€λŠ” λͺ»ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:39
Governments are still incentivized to give.
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μ •λΆ€λŠ” μ—¬μ „νžˆ 지원을 μž₯λ €ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:42
But you know what, that's the point of a matching scheme.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„ μ•„μ„Έμš”? 그것이 λ°”λ‘œ λ§€μΉ­μŠ€ν‚΄ (matching scheme:λ§žμΆ”λŠ” 체계)의 μš”μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:46
So I think what we've learned
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 배운 점은
12:50
is that the risks from this money creation scheme
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μ‹ μš©μ°½μ‘°μ œλ„μ—μ„œ μœ„ν—˜μ€
12:54
are quite modest,
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그닀지 λŒ€λ‹¨ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ§€λ§Œ
12:57
but the benefits
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κ·Έ ν˜œνƒμ€
13:00
are potentially huge.
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잠재적으둜 μ•„μ£Ό ν¬λ‹€λŠ” μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:02
Imagine what we could do with 40 percent more funding.
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40%μ΄μƒμ˜ μΆ”κ°€ 자금λͺ¨μ§‘μœΌλ‘œ 무엇을 ν•  수 μžˆμ„κΉŒ 상상해 λ³΄μ„Έμš”
13:06
We might be able to feed the front row.
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μ•„λ§ˆλ„ μ•ž 쀄에 κ³„μ‹ λΆ„λ“€ν•œν…Œ μŒμ‹ μ œκ³΅ν•  수 있겠죠
13:11
The thing that I fear, the only thing that I fear,
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μ œκ°€ λ‘λ €μš΄ 것은, μ œκ°€ λ‘λ €μ›Œ ν•˜λŠ” 단 ν•œκ°€μ§€λŠ”
13:13
apart from the fact that I've run out of time,
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제 μ—°μ„€μ‹œκ°„μ΄ λ‹€ λ˜μ–΄κ°„λ‹€λŠ” 사싀 말고
13:15
is that the window of opportunity for this idea
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 아이디어λ₯Ό μœ„ν•œ 절호의 κΈ°νšŒκ°€
13:20
is a short one.
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λΆ€μ‘±ν•˜λ‹€λΌλŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:23
Today, money creation by central banks
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μ˜€λŠ˜λ‚  , 쀑앙은행에 μ˜ν•œ μ‹ μš©μ°½μ‘°λŠ”
13:27
is an accepted policy tool.
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μΈμ •λ°›λŠ” μ •μ±… λ„κ΅¬μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:29
That may not always be the case.
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그것은 μ–Έμ œλ‚˜ μžˆλŠ” 일이 μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:32
Today there are universally agreed aims
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였늘, ꡭ제 지원을 μœ„ν•΄ 보편적으둜
13:36
for international aid.
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λ™μ˜λœ λͺ©ν‘œκ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:38
That may not always be the case.
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그것은 μ–Έμ œλ‚˜ μžˆλŠ” 일이 μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:42
Today might be the only time
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였늘이 λ°”λ‘œ κ·Έ 두가지 λ™μ‹œμ— μΌμ–΄λ‚˜λ©°
13:44
that these two things coincide,
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 지원할 μ—¬μœ κ°€ 있고
13:47
such that we can afford the aid
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 항상 μ§€μ›ν•˜κ³  μ‹Άμ–΄ν•˜λŠ”
13:51
that we've always aspired to give.
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λ°”λ‘œ κ·Έ μœ μΌν•œ μ‹œκ°„μΌ μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:55
So, can we print money for international aid?
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자, μš°λ¦¬λŠ” ꡭ제 원쑰λ₯Ό μœ„ν•΄ ν™”νλ°œν–‰μ„ ν•  수 μžˆλ‚˜μš”?
14:03
I seriously believe the question should be,
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μ €λŠ” μ§„μ§€ν•˜κ²Œ λ―ΏμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. 이 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ€ λ°˜λ“œμ‹œ
14:07
why not?
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"μ™œ μ•ˆλΌ?" μ—¬μ•Ό ν•œλ‹€κ³ 
14:09
Thank you very much.
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κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:12
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

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