Susan Etlinger: What do we do with all this big data?

Prevodilac: Predrag Mijatovic Lektor: Mile Živković

Technology has brought us so much:

Tehnologija nam je donela puno toga:

the moon landing, the Internet,

sletanje na Mesec, internet,

the ability to sequence the human genome.

mogućnost da sekvenciramo ljudski genom.

But it also taps into a lot of our deepest fears,

Ali je i dotakla mnogo naših najdubljih strahova,

and about 30 years ago,

i pre oko 30 godina,

the culture critic Neil Postman wrote a book

kritičar kulture Nil Postman napisao je knjigu

called "Amusing Ourselves to Death,"

po imenu "Zabavljamo se na mrtvo",

which lays this out really brilliantly.

koja to pokazuje na briljantan način.

And here's what he said,

I evo šta je on rekao,

comparing the dystopian visions

upoređujući distopijske vizije

of George Orwell and Aldous Huxley.

Džordža Orvela i Oldosa Hakslija.

He said, Orwell feared we would become

Rekao je: "Orvel se plašio da ćemo postati

a captive culture.

zatočena kultura.

Huxley feared we would become a trivial culture.

Haksli se plašio da ćemo postati beznačajna kultura.

Orwell feared the truth would be

Orvel se plašio da će istina

concealed from us,

biti sakrivena od nas,

and Huxley feared we would be drowned

a Haksli se plašio da ćemo se udaviti

in a sea of irrelevance.

u moru nebitnih stvari".

In a nutshell, it's a choice between

Ukratko, izbor se svodi na

Big Brother watching you

Velikog Brata koji posmatra tebe

and you watching Big Brother.

i tebe koji posmatraš "Velikog brata".

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But it doesn't have to be this way.

Ali ne mora da bude tako.

We are not passive consumers of data and technology.

Mi nismo pasivni potrošači podataka i tehnologije.

We shape the role it plays in our lives

Mi oblikujemo ulogu koju oni igraju u našim životima

and the way we make meaning from it,

i način na koji ih shvatamo,

but to do that,

ali da bismo to uradili,

we have to pay as much attention to how we think

moramo da obratimo onoliko pažnje na to kako mislimo

as how we code.

koliko i na to kako kodiramo.

We have to ask questions, and hard questions,

Moramo da postavljamo pitanja, teška pitanja,

to move past counting things

da pređemo sa brojanja stvari

to understanding them.

na njihovo razumevanje.

We're constantly bombarded with stories

Konstantno smo bombardovani pričama

about how much data there is in the world,

o tome koliko podataka ima u svetu,

but when it comes to big data

ali kada se radi o velikoj količini podataka

and the challenges of interpreting it,

i izazovima njihovog tumačenja,

size isn't everything.

količina nije sve.

There's also the speed at which it moves,

Bitna je i brzina kojom se menjaju,

and the many varieties of data types,

mnoge varijacije tipova podataka,

and here are just a few examples:

i ovo su samo neki od primera:

images,

fotografije,

text,

tekst,

video,

video,

audio.

audio.

And what unites this disparate types of data

I ono što ujedinjuje ove različite tipove podataka

is that they're created by people

je to da su ih stvorili ljudi,

and they require context.

a to povlači i kontekst.

Now, there's a group of data scientists

Postoji grupa naučnika koja se bavi podacima

out of the University of Illinois-Chicago,

na Univerzitetu Ilinois u Čikagu,

and they're called the Health Media Collaboratory,

zovu ih Health Media Collaboratory,

and they've been working with the Centers for Disease Control

i oni sarađuju sa Centrom za kontrolu bolesti

to better understand

da bi bolje razumeli

how people talk about quitting smoking,

kako ljudi pričaju kako će da prestanu da puše,

how they talk about electronic cigarettes,

kako pričaju o elektronskim cigaretama,

and what they can do collectively

i šta oni mogu da urade kao kolektiv

to help them quit.

da im pomognu da prestanu.

The interesting thing is, if you want to understand

Interesantna stvar je da, ako hoćete da razumete

how people talk about smoking,

kako ljudi pričaju o pušenju,

first you have to understand

prvo morate da razumete

what they mean when they say "smoking."

na šta misle kada kažu "pušenje".

And on Twitter, there are four main categories:

Na Tviteru, postoje četiri glavne kategorije:

number one, smoking cigarettes;

broj jedan, pušenje cigareta;

number two, smoking marijuana;

broj dva, pušenje marihuane;

number three, smoking ribs;

broj tri, dimljena rebarca,

and number four, smoking hot women.

i broj četiri, zgodne žene.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So then you have to think about, well,

Onda morate da razmislite,

how do people talk about electronic cigarettes?

kako ljudi pričaju o elektronskim cigaretama?

And there are so many different ways

Postoji toliko različitih načina

that people do this, and you can see from the slide

na koji ljudi to rade, i kao što vidite sa slajda,

it's a complex kind of a query.

to je kompleksno pitanje.

And what it reminds us is that

I ono nas podseća na to

language is created by people,

da jezik stvaraju ljudi,

and people are messy and we're complex

a ljudi su zbrkani i kompleksni

and we use metaphors and slang and jargon

i koristimo metafore i sleng i žargon

and we do this 24/7 in many, many languages,

i radimo to non-stop na mnogo, mnogo jezika,

and then as soon as we figure it out, we change it up.

i taman kada se stvari slegnu, mi sve promenimo.

So did these ads that the CDC put on,

Dakle, da li su ove reklame koje je CDC napravio,

these television ads that featured a woman

ove televizijske reklame koje su imale ženu

with a hole in her throat and that were very graphic

sa rupom u grlu i koje su bile vrlo snažne

and very disturbing,

i vrlo uznemirujuće,

did they actually have an impact

da li su one zapravo imale uticaja

on whether people quit?

da ljudi ostave pušenje?

And the Health Media Collaboratory respected the limits of their data,

Health Media Collaboratory je bila svesna ograničenosti podataka,

but they were able to conclude

ali bili su u mogućnosti da zaključe

that those advertisements — and you may have seen them —

da te reklame - i možda ste ih videli -

that they had the effect of jolting people

da su imale efekat da trgnu ljude

into a thought process

da uđu u proces razmišljanja

that may have an impact on future behavior.

koji će možda imati uticaj na buduće ponašanje.

And what I admire and appreciate about this project,

Ono čemu se divim i što poštujem kod ovog projekta,

aside from the fact, including the fact

pored činjenice, uključujući činjenicu

that it's based on real human need,

da je baziran na realnoj ljudskoj potrebi,

is that it's a fantastic example of courage

je da je sjajan primer hrabrosti

in the face of a sea of irrelevance.

uprkos moru irelevantnih stvari.

And so it's not just big data that causes

I nije samo velika količina podataka ta koja prouzrokuje

challenges of interpretation, because let's face it,

probleme u interpretaciji jer, budimo realni,

we human beings have a very rich history

mi ljudi imamo veoma bogatu istoriju

of taking any amount of data, no matter how small,

da od bilo koje količine podataka, ma koliko male,

and screwing it up.

izvedemo loše zaključke.

So many years ago, you may remember

Pre mnogo godina, možda se sećate,

that former President Ronald Reagan

bivšeg predsednika Ronalda Regana

was very criticized for making a statement

snažno su kritikovali zbog izjave

that facts are stupid things.

da su činjenice glupost.

And it was a slip of the tongue, let's be fair.

Bio je to lapsus, budimo pošteni.

He actually meant to quote John Adams' defense

On je zapravo želeo da citira Džona Adamsa

of British soldiers in the Boston Massacre trials

i njegovu odbranu britanskih vojnika u suđenju za Bostonski masakr

that facts are stubborn things.

koji kaže da su činjenice neumoljive.

But I actually think there's

Ono što ja zapravo mislim je da

a bit of accidental wisdom in what he said,

u onome što je on rekao postoji i delić slučajne mudrosti,

because facts are stubborn things,

jer činjenice jesu neumoljive,

but sometimes they're stupid, too.

ali su nekada i glupe.

I want to tell you a personal story

Hoću da vam ispričam ličnu priču

about why this matters a lot to me.

o tome zašto sve ovo meni mnogo znači.

I need to take a breath.

Moram da udahnem.

My son Isaac, when he was two,

Mom sinu Isaku, kada je imao dve godine,

was diagnosed with autism,

dijagnostikovan je autizam,

and he was this happy, hilarious,

a on je bio srećan, razdragan,

loving, affectionate little guy,

pun ljubavi, srdačan mali momak,

but the metrics on his developmental evaluations,

ali pokazatelji njegove razvojne evaluacije,

which looked at things like the number of words —

koji su gledali na stvari kao što su broj reči -

at that point, none —

u tom trenutku, nijedna -

communicative gestures and minimal eye contact,

gestikuliranje i minimalni kontakt očima,

put his developmental level

rangirali su njegov razvojni nivo

at that of a nine-month-old baby.

na nivo devetomesečne bebe.

And the diagnosis was factually correct,

Dijagnoza je činjenično bila tačna,

but it didn't tell the whole story.

ali nije pričala celu priču.

And about a year and a half later,

Oko godinu i po dana kasnije,

when he was almost four,

kada mu je bilo skoro četiri godine,

I found him in front of the computer one day

zatekla sam ga za kompjuterom jednog dana

running a Google image search on women,

kako pretražuje Gugl za slikama žena,

spelled "w-i-m-e-n."

tražeći "žne".

And I did what any obsessed parent would do,

I ja sam uradila isto što i svaki opsednuti roditelj -

which is immediately started hitting the "back" button

odmah sam počela da pritiskam dugme "nazad"

to see what else he'd been searching for.

kako bih videla šta je još pretraživao.

And they were, in order: men,

Pretrage su bile: muškarci,

school, bus and computer.

škola, autobus i kompjuter.

And I was stunned,

Bila sam zatečena,

because we didn't know that he could spell,

jer nismo znali da on ume da sriče,

much less read, and so I asked him,

kamoli da čita, i pitala sam ga:

"Isaac, how did you do this?"

"Isače, kako si ovo uradio?"

And he looked at me very seriously and said,

Pogledao me je veoma ozbiljno i rekao:

"Typed in the box."

"Kucao sam u polje za tekst."

He was teaching himself to communicate,

On je učio sebe da komunicira,

but we were looking in the wrong place,

ali mi smo gledali na pogrešnom mestu,

and this is what happens when assessments

i to je ono što se desi kad procene

and analytics overvalue one metric —

i analize daju previše značaja jednom pokazatelju -

in this case, verbal communication —

u ovom slučaju, verbalnoj komunikaciji -

and undervalue others, such as creative problem-solving.

a premalo značaja drugim, kao što je kreativno rešavanje problema.

Communication was hard for Isaac,

Komunikacija je bila teška za Isaka,

and so he found a workaround

pa je on našao drugi put

to find out what he needed to know.

kako bi došao do onoga što ga zanima.

And when you think about it, it makes a lot of sense,

I kada razmislite o tome, to ima smisla,

because forming a question

jer formiranje pitanja

is a really complex process,

je veoma složen proces,

but he could get himself a lot of the way there

ali je on mogao dosta toga da postigne

by putting a word in a search box.

upisujući reč u polje za pretraživanje.

And so this little moment

I tako je taj momenat

had a really profound impact on me

imao veoma jak uticaj na mene

and our family

i našu porodicu

because it helped us change our frame of reference

jer nam je pomogao da promenimo fokus

for what was going on with him,

u vezi sa onim što se dešavalo sa njim

and worry a little bit less and appreciate

i da brinemo malo manje, a da više cenimo

his resourcefulness more.

njegovu snalažljivost.

Facts are stupid things.

Činjenice su glupost.

And they're vulnerable to misuse,

I lako ih je pogrešno protumačiti,

willful or otherwise.

svesno ili ne.

I have a friend, Emily Willingham, who's a scientist,

Ja imam prijateljicu, Emili Vilingem, koja je naučnik,

and she wrote a piece for Forbes not long ago

i ona je nedavno napisala članak za Forbs

entitled "The 10 Weirdest Things

pod imenom "10 najčudnijih stvari

Ever Linked to Autism."

ikada vezanih za autizam".

It's quite a list.

Jako zanimljiva lista.

The Internet, blamed for everything, right?

Internet, krivac za sve, je l' da?

And of course mothers, because.

I naravno majke, jer eto.

And actually, wait, there's more,

I zapravo, čekajte, ima još,

there's a whole bunch in the "mother" category here.

postoji čitava gomila u kategoriji "majka".

And you can see it's a pretty rich and interesting list.

I možete da vidite da je prilično bogata i zanimljiva lista.

I'm a big fan of

Ja sam veliki fan stavke

"trudnoća blizu autoputa".

being pregnant near freeways, personally.

The final one is interesting,

Poslednji je interesantan,

because the term "refrigerator mother"

jer je termin "frižider majka"

was actually the original hypothesis

zapravo bio originalna hipoteza

za uzrok autizma,

for the cause of autism,

and that meant somebody who was cold and unloving.

i opisuje nekoga ko je hladan i bez ljubavi.

And at this point, you might be thinking,

U ovom trenutku, možda mislite,

"Okay, Susan, we get it,

"U redu, Suzan, razumemo,

you can take data, you can make it mean anything."

moguće je uzeti podatke i napraviti od njih bilo šta."

And this is true, it's absolutely true,

I to je tačno, to je apsolutno tačno,

but the challenge is that

ali izazov je da

we have this opportunity

imamo ovu priliku

to try to make meaning out of it ourselves,

da sami pokušamo da shvatimo smisao,

because frankly, data doesn't create meaning. We do.

jer iskreno, podaci ne stvaraju smisao. Mi ga stvaramo.

So as businesspeople, as consumers,

Pa kao poslovni ljudi, kao potrošači,

as patients, as citizens,

kao pacijenti, kao građani,

we have a responsibility, I think,

mi imamo odgovornost, po mom mišljenju,

to spend more time

da provodimo više vremena

focusing on our critical thinking skills.

fokusirajući se na veštinu kritičkog razmišljanja.

Why?

Zašto?

Because at this point in our history, as we've heard

Zato što u ovom trenutku naše istorije, kao što smo čuli

mnogo puta do sad,

many times over,

we can process exabytes of data

mi možemo da obradimo eksabajte podataka

at lightning speed,

brzinom svetlosti,

and we have the potential to make bad decisions

pa imamo potencijal da donosimo loše odluke

far more quickly, efficiently,

mnogo brže, efikasnije

and with far greater impact than we did in the past.

i sa većim posledicama nego ikada pre.

Great, right?

Sjajno, zar ne?

And so what we need to do instead

Ono što treba da uradimo umesto toga

is spend a little bit more time

je da potrošimo malo više vremena

on things like the humanities

na stvari poput humanističkih nauka

and sociology, and the social sciences,

i sociologije, i društvenih nauka,

rhetoric, philosophy, ethics,

retorike, filozofije, etike

because they give us context that is so important

jer one pružaju kontekst koji je tako bitan

for big data, and because

za velike količine podataka,

they help us become better critical thinkers.

jer nam one pomažu da budemo bolji u kritičkom mišljenju.

Because after all, if I can spot

Jer na kraju svega, ako ja mogu da primetim

a problem in an argument, it doesn't much matter

problem u nekom argumentu, nije mnogo bitno

whether it's expressed in words or in numbers.

da li je on izražen u rečima ili brojevima.

And this means

A to zahteva

teaching ourselves to find those confirmation biases

da naučimo sebe da prepoznajemo pristrasnost u zaključcima

i lažne korelacije

and false correlations

and being able to spot a naked emotional appeal

i da možemo da primetimo čistu emotivnu manipulaciju

from 30 yards,

sa 30 metara,

because something that happens after something

jer ako se nešto desilo posle nečega,

doesn't mean it happened because of it, necessarily,

ne znači da se nužno desilo baš zbog toga,

and if you'll let me geek out on you for a second,

i ako mi dozvolite da budem štreber na sekund,

the Romans called this "post hoc ergo propter hoc,"

Rimljani su ovo zvali "Post hoc ergo propter hoc",

after which therefore because of which.

"Posle toga, dakle zbog toga".

And it means questioning disciplines like demographics.

To znači i preispitivanje disciplina kao što je demografija.

Why? Because they're based on assumptions

Zašto? Zato što su takve discipline zasnovane na pretpostavkama

about who we all are based on our gender

o tome ko smo mi na osnovu našeg pola

and our age and where we live

i naših godina i gde živimo

as opposed to data on what we actually think and do.

umesto na osnovu toga šta mislimo i radimo.

And since we have this data,

Pošto imamo tu veliku količinu podataka,

we need to treat it with appropriate privacy controls

moramo da je tretiramo sa prikladnom kontrolom privatnosti

and consumer opt-in,

i pristankom potrošača,

and beyond that, we need to be clear

i pored toga, moramo biti jasni

about our hypotheses,

kada su u pitanju naše hipoteze,

the methodologies that we use,

metodologije koje koristimo,

and our confidence in the result.

i naša uverenost u rezultat.

As my high school algebra teacher used to say,

Kao što je moj učitelj algebre iz srednje škole umeo da kaže:

show your math,

"Pokaži proces,

because if I don't know what steps you took,

jer ako ne znam koje si korake napravila,

I don't know what steps you didn't take,

ne znam ni koje korake nisi napravila,

and if I don't know what questions you asked,

i ako ne znam koja pitanja si postavila,

I don't know what questions you didn't ask.

ne znam ni koja pitanja nisi postavila".

And it means asking ourselves, really,

I to znači zapitati se, zapravo,

the hardest question of all:

najteže pitanje od svih:

Did the data really show us this,

"Da li su nam podaci ovo pokazali,

or does the result make us feel

ili da li rezultat čini da se osećamo

more successful and more comfortable?

uspešnije i zadovoljnije?"

So the Health Media Collaboratory,

Health Media Collaboratory,

at the end of their project, they were able

na kraju svog projekta, pokazala je

to find that 87 percent of tweets

da je 87 procenata tvitova

about those very graphic and disturbing

baš o onim snažnim i uznemirujućim

anti-smoking ads expressed fear,

antipušačkim reklamama izražavalo strah,

but did they conclude

ali da li su zaključili

that they actually made people stop smoking?

da su zapravo učinili da ljudi prestanu da puše?

No. It's science, not magic.

Ne. To je nauka, a ne magija.

So if we are to unlock

Ako želimo da otključamo

the power of data,

moć podataka,

we don't have to go blindly into

ne moramo slepo da pratimo

Orwell's vision of a totalitarian future,

Orvelovu viziju totalitarne budućnosti,

or Huxley's vision of a trivial one,

ili Hakslijevu viziju trivijalne,

or some horrible cocktail of both.

ili neki užasavajući koktel obe.

What we have to do

Ono što moramo da uradimo

is treat critical thinking with respect

je da tretiramo kritičko mišljenje sa poštovanjem

and be inspired by examples

i da budemo inspirisani primerima

like the Health Media Collaboratory,

kao što je Health Media Collaboratory,

and as they say in the superhero movies,

i kao što kažu u filmovima o superherojima,

let's use our powers for good.

hajde da koristimo naše moći da činimo dobro.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)