Talithia Williams: Own your body's data

122,943 views ใƒป 2014-08-11

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Boaz Hovav ืžื‘ืงืจ: Sigal Tifferet
00:12
As a kid I always loved information
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ื›ื™ืœื“ื” ืชืžื™ื“ ืื”ื‘ืชื™ ืžื™ื“ืข
00:15
that I could get from data
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ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœืชื™ ืœื”ื•ืฆื™ื ืžื ืชื•ื ื™ื
00:17
and the stories that could be told with numbers.
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ื•ืืช ื”ืกื™ืคื•ืจื™ื ืฉื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืกืคืจ ืขื ืžืกืคืจื™ื.
00:20
I remember, growing up, I'd be frustrated at
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ืื ื™ ื–ื•ื›ืจืช ืืช ื”ืชืกื›ื•ืœ ืฉื—ืฉืชื™
00:22
how my own parents would lie to me using numbers.
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ื›ืฉื”ื”ื•ืจื™ื ืฉืœื™ ื ื™ืกื• ืœืฉืงืจ ืœื™ ืขื ืžืกืคืจื™ื.
00:28
"Talithia, if I've told you once I've told you a thousand times."
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"ืชืœื™ื˜'ื™ื”, ืื ืืžืจืชื™ ืœืš ืคืขื ืื—ืช ืืžืจืชื™ ืœืš ืืœืฃ ืคืขืžื™ื."
00:33
No dad, you've only told me 17 times
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ืœื ืื‘ื, ืืžืจืช ืœื™ ืจืง 17 ืคืขืžื™ื
00:37
and twice it wasn't my fault. (Laughter)
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ื•ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ื–ื” ืœื ื”ื™ื” ื‘ืืฉืžืชื™. (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
00:40
I think that is one of the reasons I got a Ph.D. in statistics.
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ืช ืฉื–ื• ืื—ืช ื”ืกื™ื‘ื•ืช ืฉืขืฉื™ืชื™ ื“ื•ืงื˜ื•ืจื˜ ื‘ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงื”.
00:43
I always wanted to know,
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ืชืžื™ื“ ืจืฆื™ืชื™ ืœื“ืขืช,
00:44
what are people trying to hide with numbers?
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ืžื” ืžื ืกื™ื ื”ืื ืฉื™ื ืœื”ื—ื‘ื™ื ืขื ืžืกืคืจื™ื?
00:47
As a statistician,
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ื›ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงืื™ืช,
00:48
I want people to show me the data
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ืื ื™ ืžืฆืคื” ืฉืื ืฉื™ื ื™ืฆื™ื’ื• ืœื™ ื ืชื•ื ื™ื
00:52
so I can decide for myself.
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ืฉื™ืืคืฉืจ ืœื™ ืœื”ื—ืœื™ื˜ ืœื‘ื“.
00:55
Donald and I were pregnant with our third child
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ื“ื•ื ืœื“ ื•ืื ื™ ื”ื™ื™ื ื• ื‘ื”ืจื™ื•ืŸ ืขื ื™ืœื“ื ื• ื”ืฉืœื™ืฉื™
00:58
and we were at about 41 and a half weeks,
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ื‘ืฉื‘ื•ืข 41 ื•ื—ืฆื™ ื‘ืขืจืš,
01:00
what some of you may refer to as being overdue.
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ื™ืฉ ื”ืงื•ืจืื™ื ืœื–ื” ืขื™ื›ื•ื‘ ื‘ืœื™ื“ื”.
01:04
Statisticians, we call that
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ื”ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงืื™ื ืงื•ืจืื™ื ืœื–ื”
01:06
being within the 95 percent confidence interval.
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ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืชื•ืš ืจื•ื•ื— ื‘ืจ-ืกืžืš ืฉืœ 95%.
01:08
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
01:10
And at this point in the process
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ื•ื‘ืฉืœื‘ ื”ื–ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืชื”ืœื™ืš
01:12
we had to come in every couple of days
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ื”ื™ื™ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ื’ื™ืข ืœื‘ื™ืช ื”ื—ื•ืœื™ื ื›ืœ ื™ื•ืžื™ื™ื
01:15
to do a stress test on the baby,
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ืœื‘ื“ื™ืงืช ืžืฆื•ืงื” ืœืชื™ื ื•ืง,
01:16
and this is just routine,
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ื‘ื“ื™ืงื” ืฉื’ืจืชื™ืช
01:18
it tests whether or not the baby is feeling any type of undue stress.
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ืฉื‘ื•ื“ืงืช ืื ื”ืชื™ื ื•ืง ื ืžืฆื ื‘ืžืฆื•ืงื” ื›ืœืฉื”ื™.
01:22
And you are rarely, if ever, seen by your actual doctor,
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ื•ื”ืจื•ืคื ืฉืœืš ืœื ืจื•ืื” ืื•ืชืš ื›ืžืขื˜ ืืฃ ืคืขื,
01:26
just whoever happens to be working at the hospital that day.
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ื‘ื•ื“ืง ืื•ืชืš ืจื•ืคื ืžืงืจื™ ืฉื ืžืฆื ื‘ื‘ื™ืช ื”ื—ื•ืœื™ื ื‘ืื•ืชื• ื”ื™ื•ื.
01:29
So we go in for a stress test and after 20 minutes
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ืื– ื ื›ื ืกื ื• ืœื‘ื“ื™ืงืช ื”ืžืฆื•ืงื”, ื•ืื—ืจื™ 20 ื“ืงื•ืช
01:32
the doctor comes out and he says,
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ื”ืจื•ืคื ื ื™ื’ืฉ ืืœื™ื ื• ื•ืื•ืžืจ,
01:35
"Your baby is under stress, we need to induce you."
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"ื”ืชื™ื ื•ืง ื ืžืฆื ื‘ืžืฆื•ืงื”, ื ืฆื˜ืจืš ืœื–ืจื– ืœื™ื“ื”."
01:41
Now, as a statistician, what's my response?
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ื‘ืชื•ืจ ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงืื™ืช, ืื™ืš ืืชื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืฉื”ื’ื‘ืชื™?
01:45
Show me the data!
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ืชืจืื” ืœื™ ืืช ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื!
01:49
So then he proceeds to tell us
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ืื– ื”ื•ื ื”ืžืฉื™ืš ื•ืกื™ืคืจ ืœื ื•
01:52
the baby's heart rate trace went from 18 minutes,
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ืฉื‘ืžืฉืš 18 ื“ืงื•ืช ืงืฆื‘ ื”ืœื‘ ืฉืœ ื”ืชื™ื ื•ืง
01:54
the baby's heart rate was in the normal zone
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ื”ื™ื” ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืชืงื™ืŸ
01:56
and for two minutes it was in what appeared to be
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ื•ื‘ืžืฉืš 2 ื“ืงื•ืช, ื”ื•ื ื”ืฉืชื ื”, ื•ื ืจืื” ื›ืžื•
01:59
my heart rate zone and I said,
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ื”ื“ื•ืคืง ืฉืœื™, ื•ืืžืจืชื™ ืœืจื•ืคื
02:03
"Is it possible that maybe this was my heart rate?
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"ื”ืื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืฉืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ื“ื•ืคืง ืฉืœื™?
02:05
I was moving around a little bit,
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ืื ื™ ื”ืชื”ืคื›ืชื™ ื‘ืžื™ื˜ื”,
02:07
it's hard to lay still on your back,
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ืงืฉื” ืœื™ ืœืฉื›ื‘ ื‘ืœื™ ืชื ื•ืขื” ืขืœ ื”ื’ื‘,
02:09
41 weeks pregnant for 20 minutes.
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ืœืžืฉืš 20 ื“ืงื•ืช, ื‘ืฉื‘ื•ืข ื”-41 ืœื”ืจื™ื•ืŸ.
02:12
Maybe it was shifting around."
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ืื•ืœื™ ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื˜ืขื•ืช ื‘ื‘ื“ื™ืงื”."
02:14
He said, "Well, we don't want to take any chances."
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ื”ื•ื ืืžืจ "ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืื ื• ืœื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœืงื—ืช ืกื™ื›ื•ื ื™ื."
02:19
I said okay.
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ืืžืจืชื™, "ืื•ืงื™ื™.
02:20
I said, "What if I was at 36 weeks
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"ื•ืžื” ืื ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ื‘ืฉื‘ื•ืข 36
02:22
with this same data?
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ืขื ืื•ืชื ื ืชื•ื ื™ื?
02:24
Would your decision be to induce?"
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ื”ืื ื’ื ืื– ื”ื™ื™ืช ืžื–ืจื– ืœื™ื“ื”?"
02:28
"Well, no, I would wait until you were at least
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-"ื›ื ืจืื” ืฉืœื, ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ืžื—ื›ื” ืœืคื—ื•ืช ืขื“
02:31
38 weeks, but you are almost 42,
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ื”ืฉื‘ื•ืข ื”-38, ืื‘ืœ ืืช ื‘ืฉื‘ื•ืข 42,
02:33
there is no reason to leave that baby inside,
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ืื™ืŸ ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœื”ืฉืื™ืจ ืืช ื”ืชื™ื ื•ืง ื‘ื‘ื˜ืŸ,
02:35
let's get you a room."
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ื‘ื•ืื™ ื ื–ืžื™ืŸ ื—ื“ืจ ืœื™ื“ื”."
02:37
I said, "Well, why don't we just do it again?
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ืืžืจืชื™, "ื˜ื•ื‘...
...ื•ืœืžื” ืฉืœื ืชื‘ื“ื•ืง ืื•ืชื™ ืฉื•ื‘?
02:44
We can collect more data.
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ื ืืกื•ืฃ ืขื•ื“ ื ืชื•ื ื™ื.
02:45
I can try to be really still for 20 minutes.
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ืื ื™ ืืฉืชื“ืœ ืœื ืœื–ื•ื– ื‘ืžืฉืš 20 ื“ืงื•ืช.
02:48
We can average the two and see
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ื ืขืฉื” ืžืžื•ืฆืข ืฉืœ ืฉืชื™ ื”ื‘ื“ื™ืงื•ืช ื•ื ืจืื”
02:51
what that means. (Laughter)
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ืžื” ื”ืชื•ืฆืื”." (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
02:53
And he goes,
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืืžืจ,
02:57
"Ma'am, I just don't want you to have a miscarriage."
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"ื’ื‘ืจืชื™, ืื ื™ ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืœื ืจื•ืฆื” ืฉืชืขื‘ืจื™ ื”ืคืœื”."
03:04
That makes three of us.
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ืฉืœื•ืฉืชื ื• ืžืกื›ื™ืžื™ื.
03:07
And then he says,
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืืžืจ,
03:08
"Your chances of having a miscarriage double
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"ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืœื”ืคืœื” ืžื•ื›ืคืœ
03:12
when you go past your due date. Let's get you a room."
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ืœืื—ืจ ื”ืฉื‘ื•ืข ื”- 40. ื‘ื•ืื• ื ื–ืžื™ืŸ ื—ื“ืจ ืœื™ื“ื”."
03:16
Wow. So now as a statistician, what's my response?
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ื•ื•ืื•. ืื– ืžื” ืชื”ื™ื” ื”ืชื’ื•ื‘ื” ืฉืœื™ ื›ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงืื™ืช?
03:22
Show me the data!
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ืชืจืื” ืœื™ ื ืชื•ื ื™ื!
03:24
Dude, you're talking chances,
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ื’ื‘ืจ, ืืชื” ืžื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ื™ื,
03:25
I do chances all day long, tell me all about chances.
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ืื ื™ ืžื—ืฉื‘ืช ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ื™ื ื›ืœ ื”ื™ื•ื, ืกืคืจ ืœื™ ืขืœ ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ื™ื.
03:27
Let's talk chances. (Laughter)
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ื‘ื•ื ื ื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ื™ื. (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
03:29
Let's talk chances.
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ื‘ื•ื ื ื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ื™ื.
03:31
So I say, "Okay, great.
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ื•ืืžืจืชื™, "ื‘ืกื“ืจ, ืžืฆื•ื™ื™ืŸ.
03:32
Do I go from a 30-percent chance to a 60-percent chance?
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ื”ืื ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืฉืœื™ ืขื•ืœื” ืž- 30 ืื—ื•ื– ืœ- 60 ืื—ื•ื–?
03:36
Where are we here with this miscarriage thing?
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ืžื” ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ื”ื”ืคืœื”?"
03:39
And he goes, "Not quite, but it doubles,
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืขื•ื ื”, "ืœื ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง, ืื‘ืœ ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืžื•ื›ืคืœ,
03:42
and we really just want what's best for the baby."
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ื•ืื ื—ื ื• ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืจืง ืืช ื˜ื•ื‘ืช ื”ืชื™ื ื•ืง."
03:47
Undaunted, I try a different angle.
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ืœื ื”ืชื™ื™ืืฉืชื™, ื ื™ืกื™ืชื™ ื’ื™ืฉื” ืฉื•ื ื”.
03:49
I said, "Okay, out of 1,000 full-term pregnant women,
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"ื‘ืกื“ืจ, ืžืชื•ืš 1,000 ื ืฉื™ื ื‘ืกื•ืฃ ื”ื”ื™ืจื™ื•ืŸ,
03:55
how many of them are going to miscarry
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ื›ืžื” ืžื”ืŸ ื™ืคื™ืœื•
03:57
just before their due date?
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ืžืžืฉ ืœืคื ื™ ืชืืจื™ืš ื”ืœื™ื“ื” ื”ืžืฉื•ืขืจ?"
03:59
And then he looks at me and looks at Donald,
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ื•ื”ื•ื ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ ื‘ื™ ื•ื‘ื“ื•ื ืœื“,
04:02
and he goes, about one in 1,000.
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ื•ืืžืจ, "ื‘ืขืจืš 1 ืžืชื•ืš 1,000."
04:06
I said, "Okay, so of those 1,000 women, how many
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ืืžืจืชื™, "ื‘ืกื“ืจ, ืžืชื•ืš ืื•ืชืŸ 1,000 ื ืฉื™ื,
04:09
are going to miscarry just after their due date?"
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ื›ืžื” ืฆืคื•ื™ื•ืช ืœื”ืคื™ืœ ืžื™ื“ ืื—ืจื™ ืชืืจื™ืš ื”ืœื™ื“ื” ื”ืžืฉื•ืขืจ?"
04:14
"About two." (Laughter)
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"ื‘ืขืจืš 2." (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
04:18
I said, "Okay, so you are telling me that my chances
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ืืžืจืชื™, "ื‘ืกื“ืจ, ืืชื” ืžื ืกื” ืœื”ืกื‘ื™ืจ ืฉื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืขืœื”
04:20
go from a 0.1-percent chance
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ืž- 0.1 ืื—ื•ื– -- (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
04:24
to a 0.2-percent chance."
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ืœ- 0.2 ืื—ื•ื–."
04:28
Okay, so at this point the data is not convincing us
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ืื– ื‘ืฉืœื‘ ื–ื” ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ืœื ืฉื›ื ืขื• ืื•ืชื ื•
04:30
that we need to be induced,
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ืฉื™ืฉ ืฆื•ืจืš ืœื–ืจื– ืืช ื”ืœื™ื“ื”,
04:32
and so then we proceed to have a conversation
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ื•ื”ืžืฉื›ื ื• ืœื ื”ืœ ืฉื™ื—ื”
04:34
about how inductions lead to a higher rate
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ืฉื“ื ื” ื‘ืกื™ื›ื•ื ื™ื ืฉืœ ื–ื™ืจื•ื– ืœื™ื“ื”
04:36
of Cesarean sections, and if at all possible we'd like to avoid that.
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ื›ื•ืœืœ ืฆื•ืจืš ื‘ื ื™ืชื•ื— ืงื™ืกืจื™, ืžืžื ื• ืจืฆื™ื ื• ืœื”ื™ืžื ืข.
04:40
And then I said,
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ื•ืื– ืืžืจืชื™,
04:42
"And I really don't think my due date is accurate."
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"ืœื“ืขืชื™ ืชืืจื™ืš ื”ืœื™ื“ื” ื”ืžืฉื•ืขืจ ืœื ืžื“ื•ื™ืง."
04:45
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
04:47
And so this really stunned him
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ื–ื” ืžืžืฉ ื”ื™ืžื ืื•ืชื•
04:50
and he looked sort of puzzled
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ื”ื•ื ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ ื‘ื™ ืžื‘ื•ืœื‘ืœ
04:52
and I said, "You may not know this,
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ื•ืืžืจืชื™, "ืื•ืœื™ ืืชื” ืœื ื™ื•ื“ืข,
04:54
but pregnancy due dates are calculated
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ืื‘ืœ ื—ื™ืฉื•ื‘ ืชืืจื™ื›ื™ ื”ืœื™ื“ื” ื”ืžืฉื•ืขืจื™ื
04:55
assuming that you have a standard 28-day cycle,
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ืžื ื™ื—ื™ื ืฉืœืื™ืฉื” ื™ืฉ ืžื—ื–ื•ืจ ื›ืœ 28 ื™ื•ื,
04:58
and my cycle ranges โ€”
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ื•ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืžื—ื–ื•ืจ ืฉืœื™ -
04:59
sometimes it's 27, sometimes it's up to 38 โ€”
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ืœืคืขืžื™ื ื”ื•ื 27 ื™ื•ื, ืœืคืขืžื™ื ืืคื™ืœื• 38 ื™ื•ื -
05:03
and I have been collecting the data to prove it.
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ื•ืืกืคืชื™ ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ืฉืžื•ื›ื™ื—ื™ื ื–ืืช.
05:06
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
05:10
And so we ended up leaving the hospital that day without being induced.
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ื›ืš ืฉืขื–ื‘ื ื• ืืช ื‘ื™ืช ื”ื—ื•ืœื™ื ื‘ืื•ืชื• ื™ื•ื ื‘ืœื™ ืœืขื‘ื•ืจ ื–ื™ืจื•ื–.
05:16
We actually had to sign a waiver to walk out of the hospital.
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ื”ื™ื™ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื—ืชื•ื ืขืœ ื›ืชื‘ ื•ื™ืชื•ืจ ื›ื“ื™ ืœืฆืืช ืžื‘ื™ืช ื”ื—ื•ืœื™ื.
05:22
And I'm not advocating that you not listen to your doctors,
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ืื ื™ ืœื ืžืขื•ื“ื“ืช ืœื”ืชื•ื•ื›ื— ืขื ื”ืจื•ืคืื™ื,
05:25
because even with our first child,
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ื›ื™ ืืคื™ืœื• ืขื ื”ื™ืœื“ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ,
05:27
we were induced at 38 weeks; cervical fluid was low.
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ืขื‘ืจื ื• ื–ื™ืจื•ื– ื‘ืฉื‘ื•ืข ื”- 38, ื—ื•ืกืจ ื‘ืžื™ ืฉืคื™ืจ.
05:31
I'm not anti-medical intervention.
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ืื ื™ ืœื ืžืชื ื’ื“ืช ืœื”ืชืขืจื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช ืจืคื•ืื™ื•ืช.
05:33
But why were confident to leave that day?
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื“ื•ืข ื”ื—ืœื˜ื ื• ืœืขื–ื•ื‘ ื‘ืื•ืชื• ื™ื•ื?
05:36
Well, we had data that told a different story.
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ื›ื™ ื”ืžื™ื“ืข ืกื™ืคืจ ืœื ื• ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ืฉื•ื ื”.
05:40
We had been collecting data for six years.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืื•ืกืคื™ื ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ื›ื‘ืจ 6 ืฉื ื™ื.
05:45
I had this temperature data,
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ื”ื™ื• ืœื™ ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ืขืœ ื—ื•ื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ,
05:47
and it told a different story.
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ื•ื”ื ืกื™ืคืจื• ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ืฉื•ื ื”.
05:49
In fact, we could probably pretty accurately estimate conception.
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื™ื›ื•ืœื ื• ืœื”ืขืจื™ืš ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžื“ื•ื™ืง ืืช ืชืืจื™ืš ื”ื”ืชืขื‘ืจื•ืช.
05:56
Yeah, that's a story you want to tell
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ื›ืŸ, ื–ื” ื”ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ืฉืชืกืคืจื•
05:58
at your kid's wedding reception. (Laughter)
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ื‘ื—ืชื•ื ื” ืฉืœ ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืฉืœื›ื. (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
06:01
I remember like it was yesterday.
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'ืื ื™ ื–ื•ื›ืจืช ื›ืื™ืœื• ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ืืชืžื•ืœ.
06:05
My temperature was a sizzling 97.8 degrees
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ื—ื•ื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ืฉืœื™ ืขืœื” ืœ- 36.6 ืžืขืœื•ืช
06:07
as I stared into your father's eyes. (Laughter)
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ื•ืื ื™ ื”ื‘ื˜ืชื™ ื‘ืขื™ื ื™ื™ื ืฉืœ ืื‘ื ืฉืœื›ื.' (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
06:12
Oh, yeah. Twenty-two more years, we're telling that story.
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ื‘ืขื•ื“ 22 ืฉื ื”, ืื ื—ื ื• ื ืกืคืจ ืืช ื”ืกื™ืคื•ืจ.
06:18
But we were confident to leave because we had been collecting data.
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ืื‘ืœ ืœื ื”ื™ืกืกื ื• ืœืขื–ื•ื‘ ืืช ื‘ื™ืช ื”ื—ื•ืœื™ื ื›ื™ ืืกืคื ื• ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ืžื™ื“ืข.
06:21
Now, what does that data look like?
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ืื™ืš ื ืจืื” ื”ืžื™ื“ืข ื”ื–ื”?
06:23
Here's a standard chart
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ื”ื ื” ื˜ื‘ืœื” ืกื˜ื ื“ืจื˜ื™ืช
06:26
of a woman's waking body temperature
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ืฉืœ ื—ื•ื ื’ื•ืฃ ื”ืื™ืฉื” ื‘ืขืช ื™ืงื™ืฆื”
06:29
during the course of a cycle.
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ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ื”ืžื—ื–ื•ืจ ื”ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™.
06:31
So from the beginning of the menstrual cycle
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ืžืชื—ื™ืœืช ื”ืžื—ื–ื•ืจ ื”ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™
06:32
till the beginning of the next.
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ืขื“ ืชื—ื™ืœืช ื”ืžื—ื–ื•ืจ ื”ื‘ื.
06:34
You'll see that the temperature is not random.
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ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื”ื—ื•ื ืœื ืžืฉืชื ื” ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืืงืจืื™.
06:36
Clearly there is a low pattern
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ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืจืื•ืช ืชื‘ื ื™ืช ื ืžื•ื›ื”
06:38
at the beginning of her cycle
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ื‘ืชื—ื™ืœืช ื”ืžื—ื–ื•ืจ
06:40
and then you see this jump and then a higher
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ื•ืื– ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืจืื•ืช ืงืคื™ืฆื”
ื•ืขืœื™ื” ื‘ื—ื•ื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ื‘ืกื•ืฃ ื”ืžื—ื–ื•ืจ.
06:43
set of temperatures at the end of her cycle.
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06:45
So what's happening here?
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ืื– ืžื” ืงื•ืจื” ื›ืืŸ?
06:47
What is that data telling you?
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ืžื” ืžืกืคืจื™ื ืœื ื• ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื?
06:49
Well, ladies, at the beginning of our cycle,
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ื’ื‘ื™ืจื•ืชื™, ื‘ืชื—ื™ืœืช ื”ืžื—ื–ื•ืจ ืฉืœื ื•,
06:52
the hormone estrogen is dominant and that estrogen
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ื”ื”ื•ืจืžื•ืŸ ืืกื˜ืจื•ื’ืŸ ืฉื•ืœื˜ ื•ื”ื•ื ื–ื”
06:55
causes a suppression of your body temperature.
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ืฉืžื•ืจื™ื“ ืืช ื—ื•ื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ.
06:59
And at ovulation, your body releases an egg
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ื•ื‘ืขืช ื”ื‘ื™ื•ืฅ, ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ืžืฉื—ืจืจ ื‘ื™ืฆื™ืช
07:03
and progesterone takes over, pro-gestation.
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ื•ื”ื”ื•ืจืžื•ืŸ ืคืจื•ื’ืกื˜ืจื•ืŸ ืžืฉืชืœื˜, ืžืขื•ื“ื“ ื”ืจื™ื•ืŸ.
07:08
And so your body heats up in anticipation
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ื•ื—ื•ื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ืขื•ืœื” ื‘ืฆื™ืคื™ื”
07:10
of housing this new little fertilized egg.
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ืœืื›ืกื•ืŸ ื”ื‘ื™ืฆื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืคืจื™ืช ื”ื—ื“ืฉื”.
07:14
So why this temperature jump?
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ืื– ืœืžื” ืงื•ืคืฅ ื”ื—ื•ื?
07:17
Well, think about when a bird sits on her eggs.
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ืชื—ืฉื‘ื• ืขืœ ืฆื™ืคื•ืจ ืฉื“ื•ื’ืจืช ืขืœ ื‘ื™ืฆื™ื.
07:20
Why is she sitting on them?
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ืœืžื” ื”ื™ื ื“ื•ื’ืจืช ืขืœื™ื”ื?
07:22
She wants to keep them warm,
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ื”ื™ื ืจื•ืฆื” ืœื—ืžื ืื•ืชืŸ,
07:24
protect them and keep them warm.
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ืœืฉืžื•ืจ ืขืœื™ื”ืŸ ื•ืœื—ืžื ืื•ืชืŸ.
07:25
Ladies, this is exactly what our bodies do every month,
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ื’ื‘ื™ืจื•ืชื™, ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉื”ื’ื•ืฃ ืฉืœื ื• ืขื•ืฉื” ื‘ื›ืœ ื—ื•ื“ืฉ,
07:27
they heat up in anticipation
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ื”ื•ื ืžืชื—ืžื ื‘ืฆื™ืคื™ื”
07:29
of keeping a new little life warm.
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ืœื—ืžื ื™ืฆื•ืจ ื—ื™ ื—ื“ืฉ.
07:33
And if nothing happens, if you are not pregnant,
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ื•ืื ื“ื‘ืจ ืœื ืงื•ืจื”, ืื ืœื ื ื›ื ืกืช ืœื”ื™ืจื™ื•ืŸ,
07:36
then estrogen takes back over and that cycle starts all over again.
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ื”ืืกื˜ืจื•ื’ืŸ ื—ื•ื–ืจ ื•ืžืฉืชืœื˜ ื•ื”ืžื—ื–ื•ืจ ืžืชื—ื™ืœ ืฉื•ื‘.
07:40
But if you do get pregnant, sometimes you
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ืืช ื ื›ื ืกืช ืœื”ื™ืจื™ื•ืŸ, ืœืคืขืžื™ื ืืช
07:42
actually see another shift in your temperatures
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ืชื—ื•ืฉื™ ื‘ืขืœื™ื” ื ื•ืกืคืช ื‘ื—ื•ื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ
07:45
and it stays elevated for those whole nine months.
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ื•ื”ื—ื•ื ื™ื™ืฉืืจ ื’ื‘ื•ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ืžืฉืš ืชืฉืขื” ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ื.
07:48
That's why you see those pregnant women just sweating and hot,
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ื–ื• ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืฉืชืคื’ืฉื• ื ืฉื™ื ื”ืจื•ืช ืžื–ื™ืขื•ืช ื•ื—ืžื•ืช,
07:51
because their temperatures are high.
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ื—ื•ื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ืฉืœื”ืŸ ื’ื‘ื•ื”.
07:55
Here's a chart that we had about three or four years ago.
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ื”ื ื” ื”ื˜ื‘ืœื” ืฉืœื ื• ืžืœืคื ื™ 3 ืื• 4 ืฉื ื™ื.
07:59
We were really very excited about this chart.
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ื”ืชืจื’ืฉื ื• ืžืื“ ืœืจืื•ืช ืืช ื”ื˜ื‘ืœื” ื”ื–ื•.
08:01
You'll see the low temperature level
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ืชืจืื• ืืช ืจืžืช ื”ื—ื•ื ื”ื ืžื•ื›ื”
08:03
and then a shift and for about five days,
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ื•ืื– ืขืœื™ื” ืœืžืฉืš 5 ื™ืžื™ื ื‘ืขืจืš,
08:07
that's about the time it takes for the egg to travel
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ื”ื–ืžืŸ ืฉืœื•ืงื— ืœื‘ื™ืฆื™ืช ืœื˜ื™ื™ืœ
08:09
down the fallopian tube and implant,
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ื‘ืžื•ืจื“ ื”ื—ืฆื•ืฆืจื” ื•ืœื”ื™ืฉืชืœ ื‘ืจื—ื,
08:11
and then you see those temperatures start to go up a little bit.
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ื•ืื– ืจื•ืื™ื ืืช ื”ื—ื•ื ืขื•ืœื” ืขื•ื“ ืžืขื˜.
08:15
And in fact, we had a second temperature shift,
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืจืื™ื ื• ืขืœื™ื™ืช ื—ื•ื ืฉื ื™ื™ื”,
08:18
confirmed with a pregnancy test that were indeed pregnant
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ืฉืื•ืฉืจื” ื‘ืขื–ืจืช ืขืจื›ื” ืœื‘ื“ื™ืงืช ื”ื™ืจื™ื•ืŸ ื•ื”ืจืืชื” ืฉื”ื™ื™ื ื• ื‘ื”ืจื™ื•ืŸ
08:22
with our first child, very exciting.
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ืขื ื™ืœื“ื ื• ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ, ืžืื“ ืžืจื’ืฉ.
08:25
Until a couple of days later
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ืื‘ืœ ื™ื•ืžื™ื™ื ืœืื—ืจ ืžื›ืŸ
08:27
I saw some spotting and then I noticed heavy blood flow,
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ืจืื™ืชื™ ื›ืชืžื™ื ื•ืฉืžืชื™ ืœื‘ ืœื“ื™ืžื•ื ื›ื‘ื“,
08:32
and we had in fact had an early stage miscarriage.
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ื–ื• ื”ื™ืชื” ื”ืคืœื” ื‘ืชื—ื™ืœืช ื”ื”ื™ืจื™ื•ืŸ.
08:37
Had I not been taking my temperature
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ืื ืœื ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ืขื•ืงื‘ืช ืื—ืจื™ ื—ื•ื ื’ื•ืคื™
08:41
I really would have just thought my period was late that month,
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ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ื‘ื•ื•ื“ืื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ืช ืฉื”ืžื—ื–ื•ืจ ื”ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ ืฉืœื™ ืžืื—ืจ,
08:45
but we actually had data to show
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื™ื• ืœื ื• ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ืฉื”ืจืื•
08:46
that we had miscarried this baby,
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ืฉื–ื• ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื”ืคืœื”,
08:49
and even though this data revealed a really
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ื•ืœืžืจื•ืช ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ืฉื”ืžื™ื“ืข ื’ื™ืœื” ืœื ื•
08:51
unfortunate event in our lives,
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ืื™ืจื•ืข ืžืฆืขืจ,
08:53
it was information that we could then take to our doctor.
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ื”ื™ื” ื–ื” ืžื™ื“ืข ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื ื• ืœื”ืฆื™ื’ ืœืจื•ืคื.
08:55
So if there was a fertility issue or some problem,
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ื›ืš ืฉืื ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื‘ืขื™ื™ืช ืคื•ืจื™ื•ืช,
08:58
I had data to show:
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ื™ื›ื•ืœืชื™ ืœื”ืฆื™ื’ ื ืชื•ื ื™ื:
08:59
Look, we got pregnant, our temperature shifted,
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ื ื›ื ืกื ื• ืœื”ื™ืจื™ื•ืŸ, ื”ื—ื•ื ืขืœื”,
09:01
we somehow lost this baby.
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ื•ืื– ื”ื”ื™ืจื™ื•ืŸ ื”ืกืชื™ื™ื.
09:03
What is it that we can do to help prevent this problem?
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ืžื” ืฆืจื™ืš ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื›ื“ื™ ืœืžื ื•ืข ืืช ื”ื‘ืขื™ื”?
09:06
And it's not just about temperatures
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ื•ืœื ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ืจืง ื‘ื—ื•ื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ
09:10
and it's not just about fertility;
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ื•ืœื ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ืจืง ื‘ืคื•ืจื™ื•ืช;
09:13
we can use data about our bodies to tell us a lot of things.
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ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ื ืชื•ื ื™ ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ืฉืœื ื• ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืœืžื•ื“ ื”ืžื•ืŸ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื.
09:16
For instance, did you know that taking your temperature can tell you a lot
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ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื”, ื”ืื ื™ื“ืขืชื ืฉืžื“ื™ื“ืช ื—ื•ื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœืœืžื“ ืื•ืชื›ื
09:20
about the condition of your thyroid?
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ืขืœ ืžืฆื‘ ื‘ืœื•ื˜ืช ื”ืชืจื™ืก?
09:22
So, your thyroid works a lot like the thermostat in your house.
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ื‘ืœื•ื˜ืช ื”ืชืจื™ืก ืžืชืคืงื“ืช ื›ืžื• ื•ื•ืกืช ื”ื—ื•ื ืฉืœ ื”ื‘ื™ืช ืฉืœื›ื.
09:26
There is an optimal temperature that you want in your house;
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ื™ืฉ ืžื™ื“ืช ื—ื•ื ืื•ืคื˜ื™ืžืœื™ืช ื‘ื‘ื™ืช ืฉืœื›ื,
09:29
you set your thermostat.
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ืืชื ืžื›ื•ื•ื ื™ื ืืช ื”ื•ื•ืกืช.
09:30
When it gets too cold in the house, your thermostat kicks in
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ื›ืืฉืจ ื”ื‘ื™ืช ืžืชืงืจืจ, ื”ื•ื•ืกืช ืžืชืขื•ืจืจ
09:33
and says, "Hey, we need to blow some heat around."
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ื•ืื•ืžืจ, "ื”ื™ื™, ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื—ืžื ื›ืืŸ."
09:36
Or if it gets too hot, your thermostat
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ื•ื›ืืฉืจ ื ื”ื™ื” ื—ื ืžื“ื™, ื”ื•ื•ืกืช
09:38
registers, "Turn the A.C. on. Cool us off."
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ืื•ืžืจ, "ืชื“ืœื™ืง ืžื–ื’ืŸ, ืชืงืจืจ ืื•ืชื ื•."
09:41
That's exactly how your thyroid works in your body.
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ื›ืš ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืขื•ื‘ื“ืช ื‘ืœื•ื˜ืช ื”ืชืจื™ืก ื‘ื’ื•ืฃ.
09:45
Your thyroid tries to keep an optimal temperature
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ื”ื™ื ืžื ืกื” ืœืฉืžื•ืจ ืขืœ ื—ื•ื ืื•ืคื˜ื™ืžืœื™
09:48
for your body.
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ืฉืœ ื”ื’ื•ืฃ.
09:49
If it gets too cold, your thyroid says, "Hey, we need to heat up."
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ื›ืืฉืจ ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ืงืจ, ื”ื‘ืœื•ื˜ื” ืื•ืžืจืช, "ื”ื™ื™, ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ืชื—ืžื."
09:51
If it gets too hot, your thyroid cools you down.
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ื›ืืฉืจ ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ื—ื, ื”ื‘ืœื•ื˜ื” ืžืงืจืจืช.
09:54
But what happens when your thyroid is not functioning well?
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื” ืงื•ืจื” ื›ืฉื‘ืœื•ื˜ืช ื”ืชืจื™ืก ืœื ืžืชืคืงื“ืช ื”ื™ื˜ื‘?
09:59
When it doesn't function, then it shows up
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ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ืฉืœ ื‘ืœื•ื˜ืช ื”ืชืจื™ืก ืžืชื‘ื˜ืื•ืช
10:01
in your body temperatures,
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ื‘ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ื™ื ื‘ื—ื•ื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ,
10:02
they tend to be lower than normal or very erratic.
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ืฉื ื•ื˜ื” ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื ืžื•ืš ืžื”ื—ื•ื ื”ืชืงื™ืŸ ืื• ืžืชื‘ื˜ื ื‘ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ื™ื ื‘ื—ื•ื.
10:05
And so by collecting this data
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ื›ืš ืฉืื ื ืืกื•ืฃ ืืช ื ืชื•ื ื™ ื”ื—ื•ื
10:06
you can find out information about your thyroid.
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ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœืœืžื•ื“ ืขืœ ื‘ืœื•ื˜ืช ื”ืชืจื™ืก.
10:09
Now, what is it, if you had a thyroid problem and you went to the doctor,
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ื›ื™ื•ื, ืื ืชืœื›ื• ืœืจื•ืคื ื‘ื—ืฉื“ ืœื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ื‘ื‘ืœื•ื˜ืช ื”ืชืจื™ืก,
10:13
your doctor would actually test the amount of
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ื”ืจื•ืคื ืฉืœื›ื ื™ื‘ื“ื•ืง ืืช ื”ืจืžื”
10:15
thyroid stimulating hormone in your blood.
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ืฉืœ ื”ื•ืจืžื•ืŸ ื”-TSH ื‘ื“ื.
10:18
Fine. But the problem with that test is
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ื˜ื•ื‘ ื•ื™ืคื”.
ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื™ื
10:22
it doesn't tell you how active the hormone is in your body.
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ืฉื”ื‘ื“ื™ืงื” ืœื ืžืจืื” ืืช ืžื™ื“ืช ื”ืคืขื™ืœื•ืช ืฉืœ ื”ื”ื•ืจืžื•ืŸ.
10:25
So you might have a lot of hormone present,
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ื›ืš ืฉืื•ืœื™ ื”ืจืžื” ืฉืœื• ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื”,
10:27
but it might not be actively working to regulate
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ืื‘ืœ ื™ื™ืชื›ืŸ ืฉื”ื•ื ืœื ืžืกืคื™ืง ืคืขื™ืœ
10:29
your body temperature.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื•ื•ืกืช ืืช ื—ื•ื ื”ื’ื•ืฃ.
10:30
So just by collecting your temperature every day,
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ื•ื‘ื“ื™ืงืช ื—ื•ื ื™ื•ืžื™ื•ืžื™ืช
10:32
you get information about the condition of your thyroid.
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ืžืกืคืงืช ืžื™ื“ืข ืžืœื ืื•ื“ื•ืช ื‘ืœื•ื˜ืช ื”ืชืจื™ืก.
10:35
So, what if you don't want to take your temperature every day?
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ื•ืžื” ืื ืœื ื‘ื ืœื›ื ืœืžื“ื•ื“ ื—ื•ื ื›ืœ ื™ื•ื?
10:38
I advocate that you do,
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ืื ื™ ืžืžืœื™ืฆื” ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช,
10:40
but there are tons of other things you could take.
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ืื‘ืœ ื™ืฉ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื ื•ืกืคื™ื ืฉืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืขืฉื•ืช.
10:41
You could take your blood pressure, you could take your weight โ€”
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ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืžื“ื•ื“ ืืช ืœื—ืฅ ื”ื“ื, ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœื”ื™ืฉืงืœ -
10:44
yeah, who's excited about
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ืžื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืœื”ื™ืฉืงืœ ื›ืœ ื™ื•ื? (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
10:46
taking their weight every day? (Laughter)
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10:49
Early on in our marriage, Donald had a stuffy nose
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ืžื™ื“ ืื—ืจื™ ืฉื ื™ืฉืื ื•, ื“ื•ื ืœื“ ืกื‘ืœ ืžื’ื•ื“ืฉ ื‘ืืฃ
10:54
and he had been taking a slew of medications
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ื”ื•ื ืœืงื— ื”ืžื•ืŸ ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช
10:57
to try to relieve his stuffy nose, to no avail.
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ื‘ื ื™ืกื™ื•ืŸ ืœื”ืงืœ ืขืœ ื”ื’ื•ื“ืฉ, ื•ื–ื” ืœื ืขื–ืจ.
11:01
And so, that night he comes and he wakes me up and he says,
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ืœื™ืœื” ืื—ื“ ื”ื•ื ื”ืขื™ืจ ืื•ืชื™ ื•ืืžืจ,
11:05
"Honey, I can't breath out of my nose."
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"ืžื•ืชืง, ืื ื™ ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื ืฉื•ื ืžื”ืืฃ."
11:09
And I roll over and I look, and I said, "Well, can you breath out of your mouth?"
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ื”ืกืชื•ื‘ื‘ืชื™ ืืœื™ื• ื•ืขื ื™ืชื™, "ืœืžื” ืฉืœื ืชื ืฉื•ื ืžื”ืคื”?"
11:14
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
11:16
And he goes, "Yes, but I can't breath out of my nose!"
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ื”ื•ื ืืžืจ, "ื›ืŸ, ืื‘ืœ ืื ื™ ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื ืฉื•ื ืžื”ืืฃ!"
11:23
And so like any good wife, I rush him
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ืื– ื›ืžื• ื›ืœ ืืฉื” ื˜ื•ื‘ื”, ืœืงื—ืชื™ ืื•ืชื•
11:26
to the emergency room
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ืœื—ื“ืจ ื”ืžื™ื•ืŸ
11:27
at 2 o'clock in the morning.
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ื‘ืฉืขื” 2 ืœืคื ื•ืช ื‘ื•ืงืจ.
11:30
And the whole time I'm driving and I'm thinking,
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ื•ื‘ื“ืจืš ื—ืฉื‘ืชื™ ืœืขืฆืžื™,
11:33
you can't die on me now.
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"ืืชื” ืœื ื”ื•ืœืš ืœืžื•ืช ืœื™ ืขื›ืฉื™ื•.
11:36
We just got married,
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ื”ืจื’ืข ื”ืชื—ืชื ื•,
11:38
people will think I killed you! (Laughter)
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ืื ืฉื™ื ื™ื—ืฉื‘ื• ืฉื”ืจื’ืชื™ ืื•ืชืš!" (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
11:43
And so, we get to the emergency room, and the nurse sees us,
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ื”ื’ืขื ื• ืœืžื™ื•ืŸ, ื”ืื—ื•ืช ื‘ื“ืงื” ืื•ืชื ื•,
11:47
and he can't breath out of his nose, and so
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืœื ื ื•ืฉื ืžื”ืืฃ,
11:49
she brings us to the back and the doctor says,
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ื•ื”ืื—ื•ืช ืžื•ื‘ื™ืœื” ืื•ืชื ื• ืœืจื•ืคื ืฉืฉื•ืืœ,
11:51
"What seems to be the problem?" and he goes, "I can't breath out of my nose."
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"ืžื” ื”ื‘ืขื™ื”?" ื•ื“ื•ื ืœื“ ืื•ืžืจ "ืื ื™ ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื ืฉื•ื ืžื”ืืฃ."
11:54
And he said, "You can't breath out of your nose?
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ื•ื”ืจื•ืคื ืื•ืžืจ, "ืืชื” ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื ืฉื•ื ืžื”ืืฃ?"
11:56
No, but he can breath out of his mouth. (Laughter)
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-"ืœื, ืื‘ืœ ื”ื•ื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื ืฉื•ื ืžื”ืคื”." (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
12:02
He takes a step back and he looks at both of us
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ื”ืจื•ืคื ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ ื‘ืฉื ื™ื ื•
12:05
and he says "Sir, I think I know the problem.
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ื•ืืžืจ, "ืื“ื•ื ื™, ื ืจืื” ืœื™ ืฉืื ื™ ื™ื•ื“ืข ืžื” ื”ื‘ืขื™ื”:
12:09
You're having a heart attack.
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ืืชื” ืขื•ื‘ืจ ื”ืชืงืฃ ืœื‘.
12:10
I'm going to order an EKG and a CAT scan
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ืื ื™ ืžื–ืžื™ืŸ ืœืš ืžื™ื“ ื.ืง.ื’. ื•ืกื™-ื˜ื™."
12:12
for you immediately."
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12:16
And we are thinking,
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ื•ื—ืฉื‘ื ื•,
12:17
no, no, no. It's not a heart attack. He can breathe,
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"ืœื, ืœื, ืœื, ื–ื” ืœื ื”ืชืงืฃ ืœื‘. ื”ื•ื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื ืฉื•ื
12:20
just out of his mouth. No, no, no, no, no.
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ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืจืง ืžื”ืคื”. ืœื, ืœื, ืœื, ืœื."
12:25
And so we go back and forth with this doctor
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ื•ื›ืš ื“ื™ื‘ืจื ื• ืžืกืคืจ ืคืขืžื™ื ืขื ื”ืจื•ืคื
12:28
because we think this is the incorrect diagnosis,
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ื›ื™ ื—ืฉื‘ื ื• ืฉื”ืื‘ื—ื ื” ืฉืœื• ืฉื’ื•ื™ื”,
12:30
and he's like, "No really, it'll be fine, just calm down."
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืื•ืžืจ, "ืืœ ืชื“ืื’ื•, ื”ื›ืœ ื™ื”ื™ื” ื‘ืกื“ืจ, ืชืจื’ืขื•."
12:34
And I'm thinking, how do you calm down? But I don't think he's having a heart attack.
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ื•ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ืช, "ืื™ืš ืœื”ื™ืจื’ืข? ืื ื™ ืœื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ืช ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื• ื”ืชืงืฃ ืœื‘."
12:38
And so fortunately for us, this doctor was at the end of the shift.
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ืœืžื–ืœื ื•, ื”ืžืฉืžืจืช ืฉืœ ื”ืจื•ืคื ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ื”ืกืชื™ื™ืžื”.
12:41
So this new doctor comes in, he sees us clearly
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ื•ืจื•ืคื ื—ื“ืฉ ื”ื’ื™ืข, ื•ืจืื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื•
12:44
distraught, with a husband who can't breath
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ืžื‘ื•ืœื‘ืœื™ื, ืขื ื‘ืขืœ
ืฉืœื ืžืฆืœื™ื— ืœื ืฉื•ื ืžื”ืืฃ. (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
12:47
out of his nose. (Laughter)
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12:50
And he starts asking us questions.
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ื”ื•ื ื”ืชื—ื™ืœ ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืืชื ื•.
12:53
He says, "Well, do you two exercise?"
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ื”ื•ื ืฉืืœ "ื”ืื ืืชื ืžืชืืžื ื™ื?"
12:58
We ride our bikes, we go to the gym occasionally.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืจื•ื›ื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ืื•ืคื ื™ื™ื ื•ื”ื•ืœื›ื™ื ืœื—ื“ืจ ื”ื›ื•ืฉืจ
ืžื“ื™ ืคืขื. (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
13:05
(Laughter)
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13:07
We move around.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื–ื–ื™ื.
13:09
And he says, "What were you doing just before you came here?"
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ื”ื•ื ืฉืืœ, "ืžื” ืขืฉื™ืชื ืžืžืฉ ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื”ื’ืขืชื ืœื›ืืŸ?"
13:12
I'm thinking, I was sleeping, honestly.
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ื•ืื ื™ ื—ืฉื‘ืชื™, ื ื“ืžื” ืœื™ ืฉื™ืฉื ืชื™.
13:15
But okay, what was Donald doing just before?
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ื•ืžื” ืขืฉื” ื“ื•ื ืœื“ ืœืคื ื™ ื›ืŸ?
13:18
So Donald goes into this slew of medications he was taking.
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ื“ื•ื ืœื“ ืคื™ืจื˜ ืืช ืจืฉื™ืžืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืฉื”ื•ื ืœื•ืงื—.
13:21
He lists, "I took this decongestant and then I took this nasal spray,"
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ื”ื•ื ืคื™ืจื˜, "ืœืงื—ืชื™ ืชืจื•ืคื” ืœื ื–ืœืช ื•ืื– ื”ืฉืชืžืฉืชื™ ื‘ืกืคืจื™ื™ ืœืืฃ,"
13:24
and then all of a sudden a lightbulb goes off and he says,
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ื•ืื– ืคืชืื•ื ื”ืจื•ืคื ื—ื•ื•ื” ื”ืืจื” ื•ืืžืจ,
13:26
"Oh! You should never mix this decongestant with this nasal spray.
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"ืืกื•ืจ ืœืงื—ืช ืชืจื•ืคื” ืœื ื–ืœืช ืขื ืกืคืจื™ื™ ืœืืฃ.
13:30
Clogs you up every time. Here, take this one instead."
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ื–ื” ื—ื•ืกื ืืช ื”ืืฃ. ืชื ืกื” ืืช ื”ื—ื•ืžืจ ื”ื–ื”."
13:33
He gives us a prescription.
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ื•ื”ื•ื ื ืชืŸ ืœื ื• ืžืจืฉื.
13:35
We're looking at each other, and I looked at the doctor,
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ื”ื‘ื˜ื ื• ื–ื” ื‘ื–ื”, ื•ืื– ื‘ืจื•ืคื,
13:37
and I said, "Why is it that it seems like you
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ื•ืื ื™ ืฉืืœืชื™, "ืื™ืš ืงืจื”
13:39
were able to accurately diagnose his condition,
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ืฉืืชื” ืื‘ื—ื ืช ืืช ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื‘ืงืœื•ืช,
13:41
but this previous doctor wanted to order
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ื•ื”ืจื•ืคื ื”ืงื•ื“ื ื›ืžืขื˜ ืฉืœื— ืื•ืชื ื•
13:44
an EKG and a CAT scan?"
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ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื.ืง.ื’. ื•ืกื™-ื˜ื™?"
13:46
And he looks at us and says,
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ื”ื•ื ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ ื‘ื ื• ื•ืืžืจ,
13:49
"Well, when a 350-pound man walks in the emergency room and says he can't breath,
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"ื›ืฉื’ื‘ืจ ื‘ืžืฉืงืœ 150 ืงื™ืœื• ื ื›ื ืก ืœื—ื“ืจ ื”ืžื™ื•ืŸ ื•ืžืชืœื•ื ืŸ ืขืœ ืงืฉื™ื™ ื ืฉื™ืžื”,
13:53
you assume he's having a heart attack
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ื”ื ื—ืช ื”ื™ืกื•ื“ ื”ื™ื ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื• ื”ืชืงืฃ ืœื‘
13:55
and you ask questions later."
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ื•ืืช ืฉืืจ ื”ืฉืืœื•ืช ืฉื•ืืœื™ื ืื—ืจ ื›ืš."
13:59
Now, emergency room doctors are trained to make decisions quickly,
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ืจื•ืคืื™ ื—ื“ืจ ืžื™ื•ืŸ ื—ื•ื ื›ื• ืœืงื‘ืœ ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช ืžื”ืจ,
14:04
but not always accurately.
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ืœืขืชื™ื ื–ื” ื‘ื ืขืœ ื—ืฉื‘ื•ืŸ ื”ื“ื™ื•ืง.
14:07
And so had we had some information
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ื•ื™ื™ืชื›ืŸ ืฉืื ื”ื™ื” ืœื ื• ืขื•ื“ ืžื™ื“ืข
14:08
about our heart health to share with him,
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ืœื’ื‘ื™ ืžืฆื‘ ื”ืœื‘ ืฉืœื ื•,
14:10
maybe we would have gotten a better diagnosis the first time.
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ื”ืจื•ืคื ื”ื™ื” ืžื’ื™ืข ืœืื‘ื—ื ื” ื”ื ื›ื•ื ื” ื›ื‘ืจ ื‘ืฉืœื‘ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ.
14:14
I want you to consider the following chart,
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ืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืฉืชื‘ื™ื˜ื• ื‘ื˜ื‘ืœื”
14:16
of systolic blood pressure measurements
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ืฉืœ ืžื“ื“ื™ ืœื—ืฅ ื“ื ืกื™ืกื˜ื•ืœื™
14:18
from October 2010 to July 2012.
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ืื•ืงื˜ื•ื‘ืจ 2010 ืœื™ื•ืœื™ 2012.
14:22
You'll see that these measurements start
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ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื”ืžื“ื™ื“ื•ืช ืžืชื—ื™ืœื•ืช
14:24
in the prehypertension/hypertension zone,
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ื‘ืจืžื” ืฉืงืจื•ื‘ื” ืžืื“ ืœื”ื’ื“ืจืช ื™ืชืจ ืœื—ืฅ ื“ื,
14:28
but over about the course of a year and a half
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ืฉื ื” ื•ื—ืฆื™
14:30
they move into the normal zone.
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ื”ืŸ ื™ื•ืจื“ื•ืช ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืชืงื™ืŸ.
14:33
This is about the heart rate of a healthy 16-year-old.
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ื–ื” ื‘ืขืจืš ื”ื˜ื•ื•ื— ืฉืœ ื ืขืจ ื‘ืจื™ื ื‘ืŸ 16.
14:37
What story is this data telling you?
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ืื™ื–ื” ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ืžืกืคืจื™ื ืœื ื• ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื?
14:41
Obviously it's the data from someone
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ื‘ืจื•ืจ ืฉืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ืฉืœ ืžื™ืฉื”ื•
14:44
who's made a drastic transformation,
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ืฉืขืฉื” ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ ื‘ื—ื™ื™ื•,
14:47
and fortunately for us, that person happens to be here today.
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ื•ืœืžื–ืœื ื•, ืื•ืชื• ืื“ื ื ืžืฆื ืืชื ื• ื”ื™ื•ื.
14:52
So that 350-pound guy that walked into the emergency room with me
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ืื•ืชื• ื‘ื—ื•ืจ ื‘ืžืฉืงืœ 150 ืงื™ืœื• ืฉื ื›ื ืก ืืชื™ ืœื—ื“ืจ ื”ืžื™ื•ืŸ
14:56
is now an even sexier and healthier
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ื”ื•ื ื”ื™ื•ื ื’ื‘ืจ ื‘ืจื™ื ื•ืกืงืกื™ ื™ื•ืชืจ
14:59
225-pound guy, and that's his blood pressure trace.
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ืฉืฉื•ืงืœ 100 ืงื™ืœื•, ื•ืืœื• ื ืชื•ื ื™ ืœื—ืฅ ื”ื“ื ืฉืœื•.
15:06
So over the course of that year and a half
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ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ืื•ืชืŸ ืฉื ื” ื•ื—ืฆื™
15:09
Donald's eating changed
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ื“ื•ื ืœื“ ืฉื™ื ื” ืืช ื”ืจื’ืœื™ ื”ืื›ื™ืœื”
15:11
and our exercise regimen changed,
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ื•ืžืฉื˜ืจ ื”ืื™ืžื•ื ื™ื ืฉืœื•,
15:13
and his heart rate responded,
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ื•ื”ืœื‘ ืฉืœื• ื”ื’ื™ื‘,
15:16
his blood pressure responded to that change
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ืœื—ืฅ ื”ื“ื ืฉืœื• ื”ื’ื™ื‘ ืœืฉื™ื ื•ื™
15:17
that he made in his body.
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ืฉืขืฉื” ื‘ื’ื•ืคื•.
15:19
So what's the take-home message
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ืื– ืžื” ื”ืžืกืจ
15:21
that I want you to leave with today?
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ืฉืื ื™ ืžื ืกื” ืœื”ืขื‘ื™ืจ ืœื›ื ื”ื™ื•ื?
15:25
By taking ownership of your data just like we've done,
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ืื ืชืชื—ื™ืœื• ืœืขืงื•ื‘ ืื—ืจื™ ื ืชื•ื ื™ ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ืฉืœื›ื ื›ืžื•ื ื•,
15:30
just by taking this daily measurements about yourself,
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ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื“ื™ื“ื•ืช ืขืฆืžื™ื•ืช ื™ื•ืžื™ื•ืช,
15:33
you become the expert on your body.
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ืชื”ืคื›ื• ืœืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืœื’ื•ืฃ ืฉืœื›ื.
15:36
You become the authority.
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ืชื”ืคื›ื• ืœื‘ืจื™ ื”ืกืžื›ื.
15:38
It's not hard to do.
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ื–ื” ืœื ืงืฉื”.
15:40
You don't have to have a Ph.D. in statistics
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ืœื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ื“ื•ืงื˜ื•ืจื˜ ื‘ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงื”
15:42
to be an expert in yourself.
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ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœื”ืชืžื—ื•ืช ื‘ื’ื•ืฃ.
15:44
You don't have to have a medical degree
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ืœื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ืชื•ืืจ ื‘ืจืคื•ืื”
15:45
to be your body's expert.
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ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœื”ืชืžื—ื•ืช ื‘ื’ื•ืคื›ื.
15:47
Medical doctors, they're experts on the population,
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ืจื•ืคืื™ื, ื”ื ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืœืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ื” ื’ื“ื•ืœื”,
15:51
but you are the expert on yourself.
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ืื‘ืœ ืืชื ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ืฉืœื›ื.
15:53
And so when two of you come together,
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ื•ื›ืฉืชื™ืคื’ืฉื•,
15:55
when two experts come together,
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ื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ืขื ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื•,
15:57
the two of you are able to make a better decision
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ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืงื‘ืœ ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ
16:00
than just your doctor alone.
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ืžืืฉืจ ื”ืจื•ืคื ื™ื•ื›ืœ ืœืงื‘ืœ ืœื‘ื“ื•.
16:02
Now that you understand the power of information
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื›ืฉืืชื ืžื‘ื™ื ื™ื ืืช ื›ื•ื—ื• ืฉืœ ื”ืžื™ื“ืข
16:05
that you can get through personal data collection,
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ืฉื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื”ืฉื™ื’ ืข"ื™ ืื™ืกื•ืฃ ืžื™ื“ืข ืื™ืฉื™,
16:07
I'd like you all to stand and raise your right hand.
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ืื ื™ ืžื‘ืงืฉืช ืฉืชืงื•ืžื• ื•ืชืจื™ืžื• ืืช ื™ื“ ื™ืžื™ืŸ.
16:11
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
16:13
Yes, get it up.
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ืงื“ื™ืžื”, ืชืจื™ืžื• ื™ื“.
16:18
I challenge you to take ownership of your data.
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ืื ื™ ืงื•ืจืืช ืœื›ื ืœืงื—ืฆ ื‘ืขืœื•ืช ืขืœ ื ืชื•ื ื™ ื”ื’ื•ืฃ ืฉืœื›ื.
16:25
And today, I hereby confer upon you
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ื•ื”ืจื™ื ื™ ืžืขื ื™ืงื” ืœื›ื
16:29
a TEDx associate's degree in elementary statistics
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ื“ืจื’ื” ืฉืœ ืขืžื™ืช TEDx ื‘ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงื” ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ืช
16:33
with a concentration in time-dependent data analysis
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ืขื ื”ืชืžื—ื•ืช ื‘ื ื™ืชื•ื— ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ืชืœื•ื™ื™ ื–ืžืŸ
16:38
with all the rights and privileges appertaining thereto.
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ืขื ื›ืœ ื”ื–ื›ื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ื›ืœื•ืœื•ืช ื‘ื“ืจื’ื”.
16:41
And so the next time you are in your doctor's office,
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ื•ื‘ืคืขื ื”ื‘ืื” ืฉืชื’ื™ืขื• ืœืžืจืคืืช ื”ืจื•ืคื,
16:45
as newly inducted statisticians,
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ื›ืกื˜ื˜ื™ืกื˜ื™ืงืื™ื ื—ื“ืฉื™ื,
16:48
what should always be your response?
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ืžื” ืชื”ื™ื” ื”ืชื’ื•ื‘ื” ืฉืœื›ื ืชืžื™ื“?
16:50
Audience: Show me the data! Talithia Williams: I can't hear you!
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ืงื”ืœ: "ืชืจืื” ืœื™ ืืช ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื!" ืชืืœื™ื˜'ื™ื” ื•ื™ืœื™ืืžืก: ืœื ืฉืžืขืชื™!
16:52
Audience: Show me the data!
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ืงื”ืœ: "ืชืจืื” ืœื™ ืืช ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื!"
16:54
TW: One more time!
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ืช"ื•: ืขื•ื“ ืคืขื!
16:55
Audience: Show me the data!
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ืงื”ืœ: "ืชืจืื” ืœื™ ืืช ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื!"
16:57
TW: Show me the data.
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ืช"ื•: ืชืจืื” ืœื™ ืืช ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื!
16:58
Thank you.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืœื›ื.
(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
17:01
(Applause)
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ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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