Marvin Minsky: Health, population and the human mind

Translator: Laura Rey Reviewer: Serv. de Norm. Lingüística U. de Santiago de Compostela

If you ask people about what part of psychology do they think is hard,

Se lle preguntas á xente que parte da psicoloxía pensan que é máis complicada

and you say, "Well, what about thinking and emotions?"

e lles dis, por exemplo, “o pensamento ou as emocións?”

Most people will say, "Emotions are terribly hard.

a maior parte da xente diría, “As emocións son moi difíciles,

They're incredibly complex. They can't -- I have no idea of how they work.

e incriblemente complexas. Non poden -- é que non teño nin idea de como funcionan.

But thinking is really very straightforward:

Pero o pensamento é moi sinxelo.

it's just sort of some kind of logical reasoning, or something.

É unha especie de razoamento lóxico, algo así.

But that's not the hard part."

Esa non é a parte máis difícil.”

So here's a list of problems that come up.

Velaquí unha lista de problemas que aparecen.

One nice problem is, what do we do about health?

Un bo problema: que podemos facer coa saúde?

The other day, I was reading something, and the person said

O outro día estaba lendo unha cousa, e o autor dicía que

probably the largest single cause of disease is handshaking in the West.

posiblemente a maior causa de enfermidades en occidente fose dar a man.

And there was a little study about people who don't handshake,

Citaba un pequeno estudo que comparaba

and comparing them with ones who do handshake.

ás persoas que non daban a man coas que si,

And I haven't the foggiest idea of where you find the ones that don't handshake,

e non teño nin a menor idea de onde se atopan as persoas que non a dan,

because they must be hiding.

deben estar escondidas.

And the people who avoid that

Pois a xente que o evita

have 30 percent less infectious disease or something.

ten algo así como un 30% menos de enfermidades infecciosas.

Or maybe it was 31 and a quarter percent.

Quizais era 31% e un cuarto.

So if you really want to solve the problem of epidemics and so forth,

Así que se queremos solucionar o problema das epidemias e demais,

let's start with that. And since I got that idea,

comecemos por aí.

E dende que teño esa idea

I've had to shake hundreds of hands.

tiven que dar a man uns centos de veces,

And I think the only way to avoid it

e creo que a única maneira de evitar isto

is to have some horrible visible disease,

é ter algún tipo visible de enfermidade horrible,

and then you don't have to explain.

así non te tes que explicar.

Education: how do we improve education?

A educación: como podemos mellorar a educación?

Well, the single best way is to get them to understand

E ben, a mellor maneira é facerlles entender

that what they're being told is a whole lot of nonsense.

que todo o que lles están contando son un montón de sandeces.

And then, of course, you have to do something

E entón, claro, tes que facer algo

about how to moderate that, so that anybody can -- so they'll listen to you.

ao respecto para moderar isto, de modo que te escoiten.

Pollution, energy shortage, environmental diversity, poverty.

A polución, o déficit enerxético, a diversidade medioambiental, a pobreza.

How do we make stable societies? Longevity.

Como podemos crear sociedades estables? A lonxevidade.

Okay, there're lots of problems to worry about.

Ben, hai un montón de problemas polos que preocuparse.

Anyway, the question I think people should talk about --

A cuestión de que se debería falar,

and it's absolutely taboo -- is, how many people should there be?

e é totalmente tabú, é, cantas persoas debería de haber no mundo?

And I think it should be about 100 million or maybe 500 million.

Eu penso que debería haber aí uns 100 millóns ou quizais 500 millóns.

And then notice that a great many of these problems disappear.

Entón, fíxate en que moitos destes problemas desaparecen.

If you had 100 million people

Se tiveses 100 millóns de persoas

properly spread out, then if there's some garbage,

ben repartidas, entón, se hai un pouco lixo,

you throw it away, preferably where you can't see it, and it will rot.

tíralo, preferiblemente onde non o poidas ver, e xa podrecerá.

Or you throw it into the ocean and some fish will benefit from it.

Ou tíralo no océano, onde algúns peixes se beneficiarán del.

The problem is, how many people should there be?

Cantas persoas debería de haber no mundo?

And it's a sort of choice we have to make.

Velaí unha decisión que temos que tomar.

Most people are about 60 inches high or more,

A maioría das persoas miden 1,55 metros, ou máis,

and there's these cube laws. So if you make them this big,

e tede en conta as leis do cadrado-cubo. Se as fas así de grandes,

by using nanotechnology, I suppose --

usando nanotecnoloxía, supoño --

(Laughter)

(Risas)

-- then you could have a thousand times as many.

Así poderías ter outros miles máis.

That would solve the problem, but I don't see anybody

Isto solucionaría o problema, mais non vexo que ninguén investigue

doing any research on making people smaller.

para facer máis pequenas ás persoas

Now, it's nice to reduce the population, but a lot of people want to have children.

Agora, estaría ben reducir a poboación pero moita xente quere ter fillos.

And there's one solution that's probably only a few years off.

Ademais, hai unha solución que probablemente saia nuns anos.

You know you have 46 chromosomes. If you're lucky, you've got 23

Xa sabedes que os seres humanos temos 46 cromosomas. Se tes sorte,

from each parent. Sometimes you get an extra one or drop one out,

23 de cada proxenitor. Ás veces tes un de máis ou un de menos,

but -- so you can skip the grandparent and great-grandparent stage

pero, podemos saltar a etapa do avó e ao do bisavó,

and go right to the great-great-grandparent. And you have 46 people

e vaiamos directos ao tataravó. Desta maneira tes a 46 persoas,

and you give them a scanner, or whatever you need,

e dáslle un escáner a todas elas, ou o que precisen,

and they look at their chromosomes and each of them says

miran os seus cromosomas, e cada un deles di

which one he likes best, or she -- no reason to have just two sexes

cal lles gusta máis. Xa non hai razón para ter tan só

any more, even. So each child has 46 parents,

dous sexos. Deste modo, cada neno tería a 46 pais,

and I suppose you could let each group of 46 parents have 15 children.

e supoño que poderíamos permitir que cada grupo de 46 puidese ter 15 nenos.

Wouldn't that be enough? And then the children

Non sería isto suficiente? Estes nenos

would get plenty of support, and nurturing, and mentoring,

terían moito máis apoio, mellores coidados, e unha mellor educación

and the world population would decline very rapidly

a poboación mundial diminuiría rapidamente

and everybody would be totally happy.

e todos seríamos totalmente felices.

Timesharing is a little further off in the future.

As multipropiedades aínda están un pouco lonxe no futuro.

And there's this great novel that Arthur Clarke wrote twice,

E hai unha gran novela que Arthur Clarke escribiu dúas veces

called "Against the Fall of Night" and "The City and the Stars."

titulada Contra a caída da noite e A cidade e as estrelas.

They're both wonderful and largely the same,

As dúas son marabillosas e en gran parte iguais,

except that computers happened in between.

mais apareceron os ordenadores entre ambas.

And Arthur was looking at this old book, and he said, "Well, that was wrong.

E Arthur miraba á novela máis vella e dixo que estaba mal.

The future must have some computers."

Que o futuro debería de ter ordenadores.

So in the second version of it, there are 100 billion

Así que na segunda versión hai uns 100 mil millóns

or 1,000 billion people on Earth, but they're all stored on hard disks or floppies,

ou un billón de persoas na Terra, mais todas almacenadas en discos duros,

or whatever they have in the future.

disquetes ou o que sexa que teñan.

And you let a few million of them out at a time.

E van liberando uns cantos millóns de cada vez.

A person comes out, they live for a thousand years

Unha persoa sae, vive durante uns mil anos

doing whatever they do, and then, when it's time to go back

facendo o que sexa que faga, e entón, cando chega a hora, retorna

for a billion years -- or a million, I forget, the numbers don't matter --

durante mil millóns de anos, ou un millón, esquecinme, os números tanto dan,

but there really aren't very many people on Earth at a time.

o caso é que non hai tanta xente na Terra ao mesmo tempo.

And you get to think about yourself and your memories,

Podes pensar en ti e nos teus recordos

and before you go back into suspension, you edit your memories

e antes de volver a estar en suspensión, editas os teus recordos

and you change your personality and so forth.

e modificas a túa personalidade e demais.

The plot of the book is that there's not enough diversity,

A trama do libro é que non hai suficiente diversidade,

so that the people who designed the city

así que as persoas que deseñaron a cidade

make sure that every now and then an entirely new person is created.

se aseguran de que cada certo tempo se cree unha nova persoa.

And in the novel, a particular one named Alvin is created. And he says,

E na novela un personaxe en particular chamado Alvin é creado e di:

maybe this isn't the best way, and wrecks the whole system.

"Quizais este non é o mellor método", e rompe con todo o sistema.

I don't think the solutions that I proposed

Non creo que as solucións que propuxen

are good enough or smart enough.

sexan o suficientemente boas ou brillantes.

I think the big problem is that we're not smart enough

Creo que o gran problema é que non somos o suficientemente intelixentes

to understand which of the problems we're facing are good enough.

para entender cales dos problemas aos que nos enfrontamos son máis relevantes.

Therefore, we have to build super intelligent machines like HAL.

Así que temos que crear unhas máquinas sumamente intelixentes como HAL.

As you remember, at some point in the book for "2001,"

Como sabedes, nalgún punto do libro 2001

HAL realizes that the universe is too big, and grand, and profound

HAL decátase de que o universo é demasiado grande, e impoñente, e profundo

for those really stupid astronauts. If you contrast HAL's behavior

para uns astronautas tan estúpidos. Se contrastas o comportamento de HAL

with the triviality of the people on the spaceship,

coa trivialidade da tripulación da nave,

you can see what's written between the lines.

veredes o que está escrito entre liñas.

Well, what are we going to do about that? We could get smarter.

E que imos facer ao respecto? Poderíamos volvernos máis listos.

I think that we're pretty smart, as compared to chimpanzees,

Penso que somos bastante intelixentes, comparados cos chimpancés,

but we're not smart enough to deal with the colossal problems that we face,

pero abondo para lidar con problemas tan colosais como os que temos,

either in abstract mathematics

sexa en matemáticas abstractas,

or in figuring out economies, or balancing the world around.

en poder comprender as economías, ou o equilibrio do mundo que nos rodea.

So one thing we can do is live longer.

Así que unha cousa que podemos facer é vivir máis.

And nobody knows how hard that is,

E ninguén sabe o difícil que é iso,

but we'll probably find out in a few years.

pero probablemente atopemos unha maneira nuns anos.

You see, there's two forks in the road. We know that people live

Veredes, o camiño aquí xébrase. Sabemos que a xente vive

twice as long as chimpanzees almost,

case o dobre que os chimpancés,

and nobody lives more than 120 years,

e que ninguén vive máis de 120 anos,

for reasons that aren't very well understood.

por razóns que non entendemos ben.

But lots of people now live to 90 or 100,

Pero moitas persoas chegan a vivir ata os 90 ou os 100,

unless they shake hands too much or something like that.

a non ser que dean moito a man, ou algo así.

And so maybe if we lived 200 years, we could accumulate enough skills

Así que se chegásemos a vivir 200 anos, acumularíamos as suficientes destrezas

and knowledge to solve some problems.

e coñecemento como para resolver algúns problemas.

So that's one way of going about it.

Esta é unha das maneiras de facelo.

And as I said, we don't know how hard that is. It might be --

E como dixen, non sabemos o difícil que é. Podería ser --

after all, most other mammals live half as long as the chimpanzee,

despois de todo, a maior parte dos outros mamíferos viven a metade ca os chimpancés,

so we're sort of three and a half or four times, have four times

así que vivimos o triplo, ou catro veces máis

the longevity of most mammals. And in the case of the primates,

que a maioría dos mamíferos. No caso dos primates,

we have almost the same genes. We only differ from chimpanzees,

temos case os mesmos xenes. O único que nos separa dos chimpancés

in the present state of knowledge, which is absolute hogwash,

no estado actual do coñecemento, que é unha total ridiculez,

maybe by just a few hundred genes.

poden ser só uns centos de xenes.

What I think is that the gene counters don't know what they're doing yet.

Coido que os contadores de xenes aínda non saben que están facendo,

And whatever you do, don't read anything about genetics

e fagan o que fagan, non leades nada sobre xenética

that's published within your lifetime, or something.

que se publique mentres vivades.

(Laughter)

(Risas)

The stuff has a very short half-life, same with brain science.

É un tema cunha vida media moi curta, o mesmo pasa coas ciencias cerebrais.

And so it might be that if we just fix four or five genes,

Así que tal vez se reparamos catro ou cinco xenes,

we can live 200 years.

poidamos vivir 200 anos.

Or it might be that it's just 30 or 40,

O tal vez só 30 ou 40,

and I doubt that it's several hundred.

e dubido que varios centenares.

So this is something that people will be discussing

Isto é algo que a xente discutirá

and lots of ethicists -- you know, an ethicist is somebody

e moitos expertos en ética -- un eticista é unha persoa

who sees something wrong with whatever you have in mind.

que atopa algo malo en calquera cousa que penses.

(Laughter)

(Risas)

And it's very hard to find an ethicist who considers any change

Resulta moi difícil atopar un experto en ética que considere que calquera cambio

worth making, because he says, what about the consequences?

paga a pena, porque, di el: e as súas consecuencias?

And, of course, we're not responsible for the consequences

E claro, non somos responsables das consecuencias

of what we're doing now, are we? Like all this complaint about clones.

do que estamos facendo agora, verdade? Como todas estas protestas sobre clons.

And yet two random people will mate and have this child,

E, sen embargo, dúas persoas aparearanse e terán un fillo,

and both of them have some pretty rotten genes,

e aínda que os dous teñan uns xenes bastante lamentables,

and the child is likely to come out to be average.

é probable que o neno saia normal.

Which, by chimpanzee standards, is very good indeed.

O que, para os estándares dos chimpancés, está pero que moi ben.

If we do have longevity, then we'll have to face the population growth

Se nós conseguimos a lonxevidade, entón teremos que afrontar

problem anyway. Because if people live 200 or 1,000 years,

o problema do crecemento poboacional. Porque se a xente vive 200 ou 1 000 anos,

then we can't let them have a child more than about once every 200 or 1,000 years.

non podemos deixar que teñan un fillo máis que unha vez cada 200 ou 1 000 anos.

And so there won't be any workforce.

Mais desta maneira non haberá poboación activa.

And one of the things Laurie Garrett pointed out, and others have,

Unha das cousas que Laurie Garrett sinala, e que outros xa teñen sinalado,

is that a society that doesn't have people

é que unha sociedade sen poboación activa

of working age is in real trouble. And things are going to get worse,

en idade de traballar é un problema grave. E isto vai empeorar

because there's nobody to educate the children or to feed the old.

porque non haberá ninguén para educar aos nenos ou alimentar aos anciáns.

And when I'm talking about a long lifetime, of course,

E cando falo dunha vida de longa duración

I don't want somebody who's 200 years old to be like our image

non quero que alguén de 200 anos teña o aspecto que imaxinamos

of what a 200-year-old is -- which is dead, actually.

de alguén de 200 anos, é dicir, morto.

You know, there's about 400 different parts of the brain

Hai preto de 400 partes cerebrais

which seem to have different functions.

que parecen ter diferentes funcións.

Nobody knows how most of them work in detail,

Ninguén sabe como funcionan en detalle a maioría delas,

but we do know that there're lots of different things in there.

mais si coñecemos que hai moitas cousas diferentes,

And they don't always work together. I like Freud's theory

e non sempre traballan xuntas. Gústame a teoría de Freud

that most of them are cancelling each other out.

sobre que a maior parte delas anúlanse mutuamente.

And so if you think of yourself as a sort of city

Así que se pensas en ti mesmo coma unha cidade

with a hundred resources, then, when you're afraid, for example,

con centos de recursos, entón, cando tes medo, por exemplo,

you may discard your long-range goals, but you may think deeply

tal vez descartes obxectivos a longo prazo pero pode que penses en serio

and focus on exactly how to achieve that particular goal.

e concentres todo en como acadar ese obxectivo en particular.

You throw everything else away. You become a monomaniac --

Deixas todo o demais de lado. Vólveste un monomaníaco --

all you care about is not stepping out on that platform.

o único polo que te preocupas é non saír fóra desa plataforma.

And when you're hungry, food becomes more attractive, and so forth.

Cando tes fame, por exemplo, a comida vólvese máis atractiva, etc.

So I see emotions as highly evolved subsets of your capability.

Así que vexo as emocións como subgrupos moi avanzados das vosas capacidades.

Emotion is not something added to thought. An emotional state

As emocións non son algo que se lle engade ao pensamento.

is what you get when you remove 100 or 200

Un estado emocional é o que tes cando eliminas 100 ou 200

of your normally available resources.

dos teus recursos dispoñibles habitualmente.

So thinking of emotions as the opposite of -- as something

Así que pensar nas emocións como o oposto --como algo

less than thinking is immensely productive. And I hope,

menos importante que o pensamento é moi produtivo, e espero

in the next few years, to show that this will lead to smart machines.

que nos próximos anos, isto nos leve a crear máquinas máis intelixentes

And I guess I better skip all the rest of this, which are some details

Supoño que o mellor é que me salte o resto, algúns detalles

on how we might make those smart machines and --

sobre como deberíamos facer estas máquinas e --

(Laughter)

(Risas)

-- and the main idea is in fact that the core of a really smart machine

-- e a idea básica é que, de feito, a cerna dunha máquina intelixente

is one that recognizes that a certain kind of problem is facing you.

é recoñecer a que tipo de problema te estás enfrontando.

This is a problem of such and such a type,

"Este é un problema de tal tipo,

and therefore there's a certain way or ways of thinking

e hai unha certa maneira ou maneiras de pensar

that are good for that problem.

que son boas para ese problema."

So I think the future, main problem of psychology is to classify

Por iso penso creo que o problema máis grande da psicoloxía no futuro

types of predicaments, types of situations, types of obstacles

é clasificar os tipos de situacións complicadas e os tipos de obstáculos,

and also to classify available and possible ways to think and pair them up.

e tamén clasificar as maneiras de pensar dispoñibles e posibles para emparellalas.

So you see, it's almost like a Pavlovian --

Así que xa vedes, é case coma un reflexo de Pavlov --

we lost the first hundred years of psychology

perdemos os primeiros século de psicoloxía

by really trivial theories, where you say,

en teorías triviais que falan sobre como aprendemos

how do people learn how to react to a situation? What I'm saying is,

a reaccionar diante dunha situación.

O que digo é,

after we go through a lot of levels, including designing

despois de pasar por moitos niveis, incluíndo o deseño

a huge, messy system with thousands of ports,

dun enorme e complexo sistema de miles de pezas,

we'll end up again with the central problem of psychology.

acabaremos de novo no problema central da psicoloxía.

Saying, not what are the situations,

Preguntándonos, non cales son as situacións,

but what are the kinds of problems

senón cales son os tipos de problemas

and what are the kinds of strategies, how do you learn them,

e cales son os tipos de estratexias, como aprendelos,

how do you connect them up, how does a really creative person

como conectalos, como unha persoa realmente creativa

invent a new way of thinking out of the available resources and so forth.

inventa unha nova maneira de pensar a partir dos recursos dispoñibles.

So, I think in the next 20 years,

Creo que nos próximos 20 anos,

if we can get rid of all of the traditional approaches to artificial intelligence,

se nos podemos librar dos achegamentos tradicionais á intelixencia artificial,

like neural nets and genetic algorithms

como redes neuronais, algoritmos xenéticos

and rule-based systems, and just turn our sights a little bit higher to say,

ou sistemas baseados en regras,

teremos as expectativas altas para preguntarnos:,

can we make a system that can use all those things

"Podemos facer un sistema que use todo iso

for the right kind of problem? Some problems are good for neural nets;

para o tipo de problema correcto?" Para algúns valen as redes neuronais;

we know that others, neural nets are hopeless on them.

sabemos que para outros, as redes neuronais son improdutivas.

Genetic algorithms are great for certain things;

Os algoritmos xenéticos son estupendos para certas cousas;

I suspect I know what they're bad at, and I won't tell you.

Sospeito que sei para que son malos, pero non volo direi.

(Laughter)

(Risas)

Thank you.

Grazas.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)