Marvin Minsky: Health, population and the human mind

翻译人员: Jenny Yang 校对人员: Zachary Lin Zhao

If you ask people about what part of psychology do they think is hard,

如果你问别人，心理学哪个方面比较难？

and you say, "Well, what about thinking and emotions?"

然后你问，思考还是感情。

Most people will say, "Emotions are terribly hard.

大部分人会回答，“感情变化很难把握”

They're incredibly complex. They can't -- I have no idea of how they work.

你根本无法想象感情变化有多么的复杂，他们很难——我是无法想像人类感情的变化

But thinking is really very straightforward:

但是"思考"确实很简单，直接，明了的

it's just sort of some kind of logical reasoning, or something.

“思考” 仅仅是一种逻辑的推理

But that's not the hard part."

这不难理解

So here's a list of problems that come up.

这里有一些关于我们人类面临的问题，值得我们思考

One nice problem is, what do we do about health?

一个问题是: 人类对康健的理解是什么？

The other day, I was reading something, and the person said

那天我在读一样东西，其中有人说

probably the largest single cause of disease is handshaking in the West.

可能疾病在西方产生的最大原因就是“握手”

And there was a little study about people who don't handshake,

因为在西方人们时常握手，几乎没有一刻停止过

and comparing them with ones who do handshake.

和那些不握手的人比较起来

And I haven't the foggiest idea of where you find the ones that don't handshake,

此外我很难想象，要在哪里才能找到那些不"握手“的地方

because they must be hiding.

因为他们一定将自己掩藏起来了

And the people who avoid that

此外那些不握手的人们

have 30 percent less infectious disease or something.

可能有30% 不易感染疾病。

Or maybe it was 31 and a quarter percent.

或者31%也说不准

So if you really want to solve the problem of epidemics and so forth,

所以说如果你真的想解决流行疾病等等问题

let's start with that. And since I got that idea,

可以先从握手的问题开始。自从我知道这个观念后，

I've had to shake hundreds of hands.

我已经握了好几百人的手了。

And I think the only way to avoid it

我想唯一能避免跟人握手的的方法是

is to have some horrible visible disease,

是得让人家可以看得见得什么病

and then you don't have to explain.

这你就不需要去废口舌去解释了

Education: how do we improve education?

教育：我们如何让教育变得更好？

Well, the single best way is to get them to understand

最棒的一个办法是让他们了解到

that what they're being told is a whole lot of nonsense.

他们正在被教导的是一堆没有用的东西。

And then, of course, you have to do something

所以，当然，你得要做些甚么

about how to moderate that, so that anybody can -- so they'll listen to you.

如何主持领导这个观念，让大部分的人都听你的。

Pollution, energy shortage, environmental diversity, poverty.

污染，能源短缺、环境多样性、贫穷--

How do we make stable societies? Longevity.

我们怎样去创造稳定的社会呢？我的意思是：长久的稳定

Okay, there're lots of problems to worry about.

好的，现在有一堆的问题值得我们忧虑。

Anyway, the question I think people should talk about --

现在我认为人们应该讨论的问题

and it's absolutely taboo -- is, how many people should there be?

绝对是一个禁忌话题---就是，该有多少人同时生存在这世界上？

And I think it should be about 100 million or maybe 500 million.

我认为应该要有1亿或是5亿的人口。

And then notice that a great many of these problems disappear.

然后你可以注意到这些大部分的问题都消失了。

If you had 100 million people

假设你让一亿的人

properly spread out, then if there's some garbage,

适当地分布，然后你有一些垃圾

you throw it away, preferably where you can't see it, and it will rot.

你将它丢掉，你宁可希望不要看到它，然后它会自行腐烂掉。

Or you throw it into the ocean and some fish will benefit from it.

或是你将它丢到海洋给鱼吃

The problem is, how many people should there be?

该有多少人同时生存在这世界上？

And it's a sort of choice we have to make.

这是一个我们需要做的一个选择

Most people are about 60 inches high or more,

大部分的人的身高是60英寸，或更高，

and there's these cube laws. So if you make them this big,

假设我们减少了体积，变成了这样大的立方体--

by using nanotechnology, I suppose --

用奈米科技的方法，我这样认为--

(Laughter)

（笑声）

-- then you could have a thousand times as many.

那么你可能有1000倍之多的人口。

That would solve the problem, but I don't see anybody

那将会解决问题，但是我还没有看过有人

doing any research on making people smaller.

做可以让人变小的相关研究。

Now, it's nice to reduce the population, but a lot of people want to have children.

减少人口的想法是不错，但是很多人会想要生小孩。

And there's one solution that's probably only a few years off.

大概在隔几年后会有解决的办法。

You know you have 46 chromosomes. If you're lucky, you've got 23

大家都知道我们有46条染色体。如果你幸运的话，你分别得到23条

from each parent. Sometimes you get an extra one or drop one out,

从父母中；有时候你会得到额外的一条，或是少了一条，

but -- so you can skip the grandparent and great-grandparent stage

你可以跳过曾祖父母和曾曾祖父母的阶段

and go right to the great-great-grandparent. And you have 46 people

直接到曾曾曾祖父母。那么现在总共有46个人

and you give them a scanner, or whatever you need,

然后你给他们扫描器，或者你想要的选择

and they look at their chromosomes and each of them says

于是他们看著他们自己的染色体，每个人都说

which one he likes best, or she -- no reason to have just two sexes

哪一条染色体是他最喜欢的-

any more, even. So each child has 46 parents,

甚至也没有理由再拘泥于一对男女，每个小孩有46个父母亲，

and I suppose you could let each group of 46 parents have 15 children.

我认为你应该让每一组的46个父母亲可以生15个小孩--

Wouldn't that be enough? And then the children

那不就够了？然后小孩可以

would get plenty of support, and nurturing, and mentoring,

得到大量的支持、养育、指导

and the world population would decline very rapidly

那么世界人口将会减少非常的快速，

and everybody would be totally happy.

每个人也都会很快乐。

Timesharing is a little further off in the future.

对於未来，时间分享的观念有着更深一层的影响。

And there's this great novel that Arthur Clarke wrote twice,

有一本 Arthur Clarke 写了两次的伟大小说，

called "Against the Fall of Night" and "The City and the Stars."

叫做： 反对消失的夜晚、城市和星晨

They're both wonderful and largely the same,

它们都很棒而且内容也差不多

except that computers happened in between.

不同的是：电脑在两部小说之间发明出来

And Arthur was looking at this old book, and he said, "Well, that was wrong.

Arthur 回顾以前写的书，他说，噢，那是错误的。

The future must have some computers."

未来一定要有电脑的存在。

So in the second version of it, there are 100 billion

所以在第二个版本，书里说会以后有1000亿，

or 1,000 billion people on Earth, but they're all stored on hard disks or floppies,

或是10000亿的人存在在地球上，但是他们都被存在硬盘或软碟里，

or whatever they have in the future.

或是其他未来会出现的形式。

And you let a few million of them out at a time.

然后每次只让其中几百万的人同时从硬碟里出来，

A person comes out, they live for a thousand years

一个人出来活个一千年

doing whatever they do, and then, when it's time to go back

做他们自己的事情，然后时候到了，就回到里面

for a billion years -- or a million, I forget, the numbers don't matter --

放个几10亿年--或是几百万年，我忘记确切数字，反正那不重要--

but there really aren't very many people on Earth at a time.

但是注意，同时存在在地球上的人数并不多

And you get to think about yourself and your memories,

而且你可以思考你本身和你的记忆，

and before you go back into suspension, you edit your memories

在你回去被悬置之前，你可以编辑你的记忆，

and you change your personality and so forth.

并选择改变自己的个性之类。

The plot of the book is that there's not enough diversity,

根据这本书的情节，世界上没有足够的多样性

so that the people who designed the city

所以设计城市的人类

make sure that every now and then an entirely new person is created.

得确定过一段时间就创造出一个全新的人。

And in the novel, a particular one named Alvin is created. And he says,

在这本小说，这个特殊的被创造的人物就是Alvin 。他说，

maybe this isn't the best way, and wrecks the whole system.

或许这不是最佳的方法，而且有可能会破坏整个系统。

I don't think the solutions that I proposed

我不认为我举出来的方法

are good enough or smart enough.

有多好，多聪明。

I think the big problem is that we're not smart enough

我认为最大问题是我们不够聪明和智慧

to understand which of the problems we're facing are good enough.

去充分了解我们现在所面对的问题。

Therefore, we have to build super intelligent machines like HAL.

因此，我们必须建造超级人工智慧的机器，像HAL。

As you remember, at some point in the book for "2001,"

你记得，2001年书上的论点说

HAL realizes that the universe is too big, and grand, and profound

HAL认识对到那些愚蠢的宇航员来说

for those really stupid astronauts. If you contrast HAL's behavior

宇宙太深远太无边无际。如果你对比HAL的行为

with the triviality of the people on the spaceship,

和太空船上那些人做的鸡毛蒜皮的事比较

you can see what's written between the lines.

你可以在字里行间体会到这个意思

Well, what are we going to do about that? We could get smarter.

那么我们现在应该要做甚么事情？我们可以变得更有智慧。

I think that we're pretty smart, as compared to chimpanzees,

我认为跟黑猩猩比起来，我们的确具备很多智慧，

but we're not smart enough to deal with the colossal problems that we face,

但是我们还是不够有智慧去处理现在所面对的巨大问题，

either in abstract mathematics

在抽象数学领域中

or in figuring out economies, or balancing the world around.

或是能了解经济的本质，或是可以平衡世界种种的想法。

So one thing we can do is live longer.

所以唯一我们能做得是活的更久。

And nobody knows how hard that is,

但没有人知道那有多困难，

but we'll probably find out in a few years.

但是过几年后我们有可能会发现。

You see, there's two forks in the road. We know that people live

你看，那里有两条叉路。我们知道大部分人类活的

twice as long as chimpanzees almost,

寿命是黑猩猩的两倍，

and nobody lives more than 120 years,

而且没有人活超过120年的寿命，

for reasons that aren't very well understood.

具体的原因我们并不是很了解

But lots of people now live to 90 or 100,

但是现在有很多人活到90或100岁，

unless they shake hands too much or something like that.

除非他们做握手太多之类的事情

And so maybe if we lived 200 years, we could accumulate enough skills

假设我们可以活到200岁，我们可以藉此累积足够的技术

and knowledge to solve some problems.

和知识去解决问题。

So that's one way of going about it.

所以那是一种实现的方式

And as I said, we don't know how hard that is. It might be --

我们实际上不知道那有多困难。但是

after all, most other mammals live half as long as the chimpanzee,

毕竟，像其它的哺乳类动物只活了黑猩猩的一半，

so we're sort of three and a half or four times, have four times

而我们大部分的寿命是其他大多数哺乳动物

the longevity of most mammals. And in the case of the primates,

的3.5或是4倍。在灵长类动物中

we have almost the same genes. We only differ from chimpanzees,

我们几乎有着类似相同的基因。当代科学认为

in the present state of knowledge, which is absolute hogwash,

人类和黑猩猩之间只有几百个基因的差别─不过在我看来，

maybe by just a few hundred genes.

这是一派胡言。

What I think is that the gene counters don't know what they're doing yet.

而我认为，数基因的那些人不知道自己在干什么

And whatever you do, don't read anything about genetics

不管如何，千万不要阅读关於

that's published within your lifetime, or something.

在你活着时出版的基因学书籍。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The stuff has a very short half-life, same with brain science.

关於基因学的研究是相当的短暂，跟脑科学一样，

And so it might be that if we just fix four or five genes,

所以有可能我们仅仅改善其中四条、五条的基因，

we can live 200 years.

我们就可以活200年的寿命。

Or it might be that it's just 30 or 40,

或是有可能变成只活30或40年，

and I doubt that it's several hundred.

但我不觉得可以活好几百年。

So this is something that people will be discussing

所以这是人们会讨论的话题

and lots of ethicists -- you know, an ethicist is somebody

而且会有很多道德伦理家会讲话--你知道道德伦理学家是那种

who sees something wrong with whatever you have in mind.

会看到你脑袋里错误思想的那种人

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And it's very hard to find an ethicist who considers any change

而且很难找到一个认为变革是有价值的伦理学者

worth making, because he says, what about the consequences?

因为他们会说，那后果会怎样？

And, of course, we're not responsible for the consequences

当然的，我们不需要对我们现在正在做的事情

of what we're doing now, are we? Like all this complaint about clones.

负责，对吧？ 就像大家都在抱怨克隆

And yet two random people will mate and have this child,

然而两个随机的人结婚，生小孩

and both of them have some pretty rotten genes,

他们双方的基因都很差

and the child is likely to come out to be average.

这个生出来的小孩可能会很普通。

Which, by chimpanzee standards, is very good indeed.

如果是根据黑猩猩的标准，那小孩已经是很好了。

If we do have longevity, then we'll have to face the population growth

如果我们人人都很长寿，我们必须要面对人口的增加

problem anyway. Because if people live 200 or 1,000 years,

的问题。因为如果我们活个200年或1000年，

then we can't let them have a child more than about once every 200 or 1,000 years.

我们不能让他们每隔200或是1000年生一次小孩。

And so there won't be any workforce.

而且那也不会有劳动人口。

And one of the things Laurie Garrett pointed out, and others have,

其中 Laurie Garrett 指出 ，

is that a society that doesn't have people

一个社会如果没有

of working age is in real trouble. And things are going to get worse,

能够从事劳动的人口，将会很麻烦。而且事情会变得更糟，

because there's nobody to educate the children or to feed the old.

因为没有人会去教育小孩或是抚养老人。

And when I'm talking about a long lifetime, of course,

所以当我谈论到一个长的人生寿命，当然

I don't want somebody who's 200 years old to be like our image

我不想有人活了200岁，却长得非常

of what a 200-year-old is -- which is dead, actually.

的老，像现在想像的200岁一样---事实上，已经死掉。

You know, there's about 400 different parts of the brain

你知道，人脑大概有400个不同部位

which seem to have different functions.

它们彼此有不同的功能。

Nobody knows how most of them work in detail,

没有人确切知道他们实际上的运作方式，

but we do know that there're lots of different things in there.

但是我们可以清楚知道脑里面是有很多的东西。

And they don't always work together. I like Freud's theory

它们不会总是一起运作。我喜欢Freud 的理论

that most of them are cancelling each other out.

大部分人体功能是彼此起抵消作用的

And so if you think of yourself as a sort of city

所以你如果你想像你是城市的一部分

with a hundred resources, then, when you're afraid, for example,

而城市有着很多的资源，那么当你害怕的时候，比如说

you may discard your long-range goals, but you may think deeply

你可能会抛弃你的长远目标，但你可能会做深层地思考

and focus on exactly how to achieve that particular goal.

专注在如何达到一个具体的目标上。

You throw everything else away. You become a monomaniac --

你把所有的东西都丢掉。你变成了一个偏执狂--

all you care about is not stepping out on that platform.

你只在乎的是不要走离这个平台

And when you're hungry, food becomes more attractive, and so forth.

就好比当你很饿的时候，食物变得更加迷人之类

So I see emotions as highly evolved subsets of your capability.

所以我看到情感是一个高度演化下的附属功能状态

Emotion is not something added to thought. An emotional state

情感不是一种加在思想的东西。一个情感状态

is what you get when you remove 100 or 200

是当你在通常拥有的资源中减少100或是200

of your normally available resources.

后的得到的一种感觉

So thinking of emotions as the opposite of -- as something

所以把情感看成反作用

less than thinking is immensely productive. And I hope,

它不象思考那样有效高产。同时我希望，

in the next few years, to show that this will lead to smart machines.

在接下来的几年，这些东西能促进引导智慧机器的诞生。

And I guess I better skip all the rest of this, which are some details

我想我最好跳过这些关於如何

on how we might make those smart machines and --

建造这些智慧机器的细节--

(Laughter)

（笑声）

-- and the main idea is in fact that the core of a really smart machine

最主要的观念就是一个超级智慧机器的核心

is one that recognizes that a certain kind of problem is facing you.

是人们如何去清楚定义正在自己面对的是哪种问题。

This is a problem of such and such a type,

这是一个关于某个方面的问题

and therefore there's a certain way or ways of thinking

于是就用一种对解决这种问题最有效的方式

that are good for that problem.

来思考

So I think the future, main problem of psychology is to classify

所以我认为未来主要的心理学问题是如何区分

types of predicaments, types of situations, types of obstacles

困境的种类，各种所面对的情况，障碍的种类

and also to classify available and possible ways to think and pair them up.

同时也能区分有价值或可行的方法去思考并将它们配对。

So you see, it's almost like a Pavlovian --

所以你看，它就像一个巴甫洛夫

we lost the first hundred years of psychology

我们丧失一开始几百年的心理学

by really trivial theories, where you say,

因为一些无用的理论存在着，

how do people learn how to react to a situation? What I'm saying is,

比如：人们如何在某种场合下做出合适的回应？ 我要说的是，

after we go through a lot of levels, including designing

在我们经历过各式各样的知识层面，包括设计

a huge, messy system with thousands of ports,

一个包含几千个组件的庞大复杂系统，

we'll end up again with the central problem of psychology.

我们最后得出一个核心的心理学问题

Saying, not what are the situations,

可以说， 问题不在于处境如何

but what are the kinds of problems

而是我们到底面对的是哪种问题

and what are the kinds of strategies, how do you learn them,

我们如何想出对此解决的策略办法，你如何从中学习，

how do you connect them up, how does a really creative person

你如何将它们联系起来，一个具有相当创意的人

invent a new way of thinking out of the available resources and so forth.

如何利用现有的资源想出解决问题的新方法

So, I think in the next 20 years,

所以我想在接下来的20年中，

if we can get rid of all of the traditional approaches to artificial intelligence,

如果我们能摆脱传统的方法去发展人工智慧，

like neural nets and genetic algorithms

比如神经网路和遗传基因演算法

and rule-based systems, and just turn our sights a little bit higher to say,

和依据规则的系统， 把我们的视角提高一点点地说

can we make a system that can use all those things

我们能否用这一切创造一个系统

for the right kind of problem? Some problems are good for neural nets;

来解决所有的问题呢？有些问题可以用神经网路去解决；

we know that others, neural nets are hopeless on them.

但我知道，在某些方面神经网路是没有用处的。

Genetic algorithms are great for certain things;

基因遗传演算法，对某些事情来说是很有用的；

I suspect I know what they're bad at, and I won't tell you.

我猜想我知道它们的一些错误、无益处的地方，但我不会告诉你。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）