Will there be another pandemic in your lifetime?

Prevodilac: Sanja Marjanovic Lektor: Milenka Okuka

The Black Death.

Crna smrt.

The 1918 Flu Pandemic.

Pandemija gripa 1918. godine.

COVID-19.

Kovid-19.

We tend to think of these catastrophic, world-changing pandemics

Mislimo da su ove katastrofalne pandemije, koje menjaju svet, retki događaji.

as very unlikely events.

But between 1980 and 2020,

Ali između 1980. i 2020,

at least three diseases emerged that caused global pandemics.

pojavile su se bar tri bolesti koje su izazvale globalnu pandemiju.

COVID-19, yes, but also the 2009 swine flu and HIV/AIDS.

Kovid-19, ali i svinjski grip i HIV/AIDS 2009.

Disease outbreaks are surprisingly common.

Pojave bolesti su iznenađujuće uobičajene.

Over the past four centuries,

U prošla četiri veka, najduže vreme bez dokumentovane bolesti,

the longest stretch of time without a documented outbreak

that killed at least 10,000 people was just four years.

koja je ubila najmanje 10 000 ljudi je bilo samo četiri godine.

As bad as these smaller outbreaks are,

Koliko god bile loše manje pojave bolesti, daleko su manje smrtonosne od kovida-19.

they’re far less deadly than a COVID-19-level pandemic.

In fact, many people born after the 1918 flu lived their entire lives

U stvari, mnogi ljudi rođeni nakon 1918. i epidemije gripa, živeli su ceo život

without experiencing a similar world-changing pandemic.

bez slične pandemije koja menja svet.

What’s the probability that you do, too?

Koja je verovatnoća da i vi doživite isto?

There are several ways to answer this question.

Postoji nekoliko načina da se odgovori.

You could look at history.

Možete pogledati u istoriju.

A team of scientists and engineers who took this approach

Tim naučnika i inženjera sa ovim pristupom

catalogued all documented epidemics and pandemics between 1600 and 1950.

zabeležio je sve epidemije i pandemije

između 1600. i 1950.

They used that data to do two things.

Iskoristili su ove podatke za dve stvari.

First, to graph the likelihood that an outbreak of any size

Prvo, da naprave grafik verovatnoće

da će izbiti bolest bilo kojih razmera igde u svetu za dato vreme.

pops up somewhere in the world over a set period of time.

And second, to estimate the likelihood that that outbreak would get large enough

I drugo, da procene verovatnoću

da će izbiti bolest dovoljno raširena

to kill a certain percentage of the world's population.

da ubije određeni procenat svetske populacije.

This graph shows that while huge pandemics are unlikely,

Grafik kaže da, iako su ogromne pandemije retke,

they're not that unlikely.

nisu toliko retke.

The team used these two distributions to estimate that the risk

Tim je iskoristio ove dve podele da proceni da je rizik

of a COVID-19-level pandemic is about 0.5% per year,

od pandemije razmera kovida-19 oko 0,5% godišnje,

and could be as high as 1.4%

i može ići do 1,4%, ako se nove bolesti budu pojavljivale češće u budućnosti.

if new diseases emerge more frequently in the future.

And we’ll come back to those numbers,

I vratićemo se tim brojevima,

but first, let’s look at another way to estimate the likelihood

ali prvo, da pogledamo drugi način

of a future pandemic:

za procenu rizika sledeće pandemije:

modeling one from the ground up.

praveći tabelu od nule.

For most pandemics to happen, a pathogen, which is a microbe that can cause disease,

Da bi se većina pandemija desila, patogen,

koji je mikrob koji može izazvati bolest,

has to spill over from its normal host by making contact with and infecting a human.

mora da pređe sa normalnog domaćina na čoveka kontaktom koji ga inficira.

Then, the pathogen has to spread widely,

Onda, patogen mora da se širi okolo,

crossing international boundaries and infecting lots of people.

da pređe dežavne granice i inficira puno ljudi.

Many variables determine whether a given spillover event becomes a pandemic.

Mnogi faktori utiču na to da li će prvi prelaz postati pandemija.

For example, the type of pathogen, how often humans come into close contact

Na primer, vrsta patogena,

učestalost bliskog kontakta ljudi sa životinjskim rezervoarom, imunitet itd.

with its animal reservoir, existing immunity, and so on.

Viruses are prime candidates to cause the next big pandemic.

Virusi su primarni kandidati da izazovu sledeću veliku pandemiju.

Scientists estimate that there are about 1.7 million as-yet-undiscovered viruses

Naučnici procenjuju da postoji 1,7 miliona

neotkrivenih virusa koji trenutno napadaju sisare i ptice,

that currently infect mammals and birds,

and that roughly 40% of these have the potential to spill over and infect humans.

a oko 40% njih ima potencijal da pređe na ljude i zarazi ih.

A team of scientists built a model using this information,

Tim naučnika napravio je model koristeći ovu informaciju,

as well as data about the global population, air travel networks,

kao i podatke o globalnoj populaciji, mreži avio letova,

how people move around in communities, country preparedness levels,

kako se ljudi kreću u zajednicama, spremnost države

and how people might respond to pandemics.

i kako bi ljudi mogli da reaguju na pandemiju.

The model generated hundreds of thousands of virtual pandemics.

Model je generisao stotine hiljada virtuelnih pandemija.

The scientists then used this catalog to estimate

Naučnici su onda iskoristili ovaj katalog da procene

that the probability of another COVID-19-level pandemic

da je verovatnoća sledeće pandemije u razmerama kovida-19

is 2.5 to 3.3% per year.

od 2,5 do 3,3 procenta godišnje.

To get a sense of how these risks play out over a lifetime,

Da steknete utisak kako to izgleda tokom životnog veka,

let’s pick a value roughly in the middle of all these estimates: 2%.

izabraćemo srednju vrednost svih ovih procena: 2%.

Now let’s build what’s called a probability tree diagram

Sad ćemo napraviti takozvani razgranati dijagram verovatnoće

to model all possible scenarios.

da bismo oponašali sva moguća scenarija.

The first branch of the tree represents the first year:

Prva grana predstavlja prvu godinu:

there’s a 2% probability of experiencing a COVID-19-level pandemic,

verovatnoća je 2% za izbijanje pandemije nalik kovidu-19,

which means there’s a 98% probability of not experiencing one.

što znači da je 98% verovatnoće da neće izbiti.

Second branch, same thing,

Druga grana, ista stvar,

Third branch, same.

Treća, ista.

And so on, 72 more times.

I tako dalje, još 72 puta.

There is only one path that results in a fully pandemic-free lifetime:

Samo je jedna staza koja rezultira životnim dobom bez pandemije:

98%, or 0.98, multiplied by itself 75 times,

98% ili 0,98, pomnoženo sobom 75 puta,

which comes out to roughly 22%.

a to je otprilike 22%.

So the likelihood of living through at least one more COVID 19-level-pandemic

Tako da je verovatnoća da doživite bar još jednu pandemiju nalik kovidu-19

in the next 75 years is 100 minus 22%, or 78%.

u sledećih 75 godina, 100 minus 22% ili 78%.

78%!

78%!

If we use the most optimistic yearly estimate— 0.5%—

Ako koristimo najoptimističniju godišnju procenu - 0,5% -

the lifetime probability drops to 31%.

verovatnoća u toku života opada na 31%.

If we use the most pessimistic one, it jumps to 92%.

Ako koristimo najpesimističniju, raste na 92%.

Even 31% is too high to ignore;

Čak je i 31% previše za ignorisanje;

even if we get lucky, future generations might not.

čak i da nam se posreći, sledećim generacijama možda neće.

Also, pandemics are usually random, independent events:

Takođe, pandemije su uobičajeno nasumični, nezavisni događaji:

so even if the yearly probability of a COVID-19-level pandemic is 1%,

pa čak i ako je godišnja verovatnoća za pandemiju nalik kovidu-19 jedan posto,

we could absolutely get another one in ten years.

sasvim sigurno bismo mogli imati još jednu za 10 godina.

The good news is we now have tools that make pandemics less destructive.

Dobre vesti su što sada imamo alate

koji čine pandemiju manje destruktivnom.

Scientists estimated that early warning systems, contact tracing,

Naučnici su procenili da su sistemi ranog upozovanja,

praćenje kontakata, socijalna distanca i ostale mere javnog zdravlja

social distancing, and other public health measures

saved over a million lives in just the first six months

spasili preko milion života samo u prvih šest meseci

of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US,

pandemije kovid-19 u SAD-u,

not to mention the millions of lives saved by vaccines.

ne spominjući milione života spasenih vakcinama.

One day, another pandemic will sweep the globe.

Jednog dana, još jedna pandemija će protutnjati zemljinom kuglom.

But we can work to make that day less likely to be tomorrow.

Ali možemo da radimo na tome da taj dan manje verovatno bude sutra.

We can reduce the risk of spillover events,

Možemo da smanjimo rizik od prenošenja,

and we can contain spillovers that do happen

i možemo zadržati prenose koji se dese

so they don’t become full-blown pandemics.

kako ne bi postali u potpunosti razvijena pandemija.

Imagine how the future might look if we interacted

Zamislite kako bi budućnost izgledala

kad bismo postupali sa životinjama opreznije,

with the animal world more carefully,

and if we had well-funded, open-access global disease monitoring programs,

i kad bismo imali dobro finansirane,

globalne sisteme za praćenje bolesti.

AI-powered contact tracing and isolation measures,

Veštačku inteligenciju za praćenje kontakata

i izolacione mere, univerzalne vakcine,

universal vaccines, next-generation antiviral drugs,

antivirusne lekove nove generacije

and other tech we haven't even thought of.

i ostalu tehnologiju koje se još nismo ni setili.

It’s in our power to change these probabilities.

U našoj moći je da promenimo ove verovatnoće.

So, we have a choice: we could do nothing and hope we get lucky.

Imamo izbor: možemo da ne radimo ništa i da se nadamo da će nam se posrećiti.

Or we could take the threat seriously enough

Ili da pretnju shvatimo ozbiljno

that it becomes a self-defeating prophecy.

kako bi postala samoporažavajuće proročanstvo.

Which future would you rather live in?

U kojoj budućnosti biste radije živeli?