Will there be another pandemic in your lifetime?

422,970 views ใƒป 2022-11-10

TED-Ed


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Hyeryung Kim ๊ฒ€ํ† : DK Kim
00:06
The Black Death.
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ํ‘์‚ฌ๋ณ‘, 1918๋…„ ๋…๊ฐ, ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜19.
00:08
The 1918 Flu Pandemic.
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00:10
COVID-19.
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00:11
We tend to think of these catastrophic, world-changing pandemics
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์— ๋น ๋œจ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ผ์€
00:15
as very unlikely events.
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๋งค์šฐ ๋“œ๋ฌธ ์ผ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:18
But between 1980 and 2020,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ 1980๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2020๋…„๊นŒ์ง€,
00:20
at least three diseases emerged that caused global pandemics.
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์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘์ด ์ ์–ด๋„ ์„ธ ๊ฐœ๊ฐ€ ์œ ํ–‰ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:24
COVID-19, yes, but also the 2009 swine flu and HIV/AIDS.
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์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜19๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ 2009๋…„ ์‹ ์ข… ํ”Œ๋ฃจ์™€ ์—์ด์ฆˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:29
Disease outbreaks are surprisingly common.
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์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์€ ์˜์™ธ๋กœ ํ”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:32
Over the past four centuries,
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์ง€๋‚œ ์‚ฌ๋ฐฑ ๋…„ ๊ฐ„,
00:34
the longest stretch of time without a documented outbreak
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๋งŒ ๋ช… ์ด์ƒ ์‚ฌ๋ง ๊ธฐ๋ก์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘์ด ์—†์—ˆ๋˜ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์€ ๊ธธ์–ด๋ด์•ผ
00:37
that killed at least 10,000 people was just four years.
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๊ณ ์ž‘ ์‚ฌ ๋…„์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
00:42
As bad as these smaller outbreaks are,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์†Œ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘๋“ค๋„ ๋‚˜์˜๊ธด ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
00:44
theyโ€™re far less deadly than a COVID-19-level pandemic.
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์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜19๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:47
In fact, many people born after the 1918 flu lived their entire lives
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ 1918๋…„ ๋…๊ฐ ์ดํ›„์— ํƒœ์–ด๋‚œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์„ ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ๋„ ๊ฒช์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์ฃ .
00:52
without experiencing a similar world-changing pandemic.
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00:55
Whatโ€™s the probability that you do, too?
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๊ทธ ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
00:58
There are several ways to answer this question.
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์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ๋ช‡ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:00
You could look at history.
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01:02
A team of scientists and engineers who took this approach
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๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ๊ณตํ•™์ž๋“ค ํ•œ ํŒ€์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ ‘๊ทผํ•ด์„œ
01:05
catalogued all documented epidemics and pandemics between 1600 and 1950.
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1600๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 1950๋…„ ์‚ฌ์ด์— ๊ธฐ๋ก๋œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘๋“ค์˜ ๋ชฉ๋ก์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:10
They used that data to do two things.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ด ๋ชฉ๋ก์„ ์ด์šฉํ•ด์„œ ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ž‘์—…์„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:13
First, to graph the likelihood that an outbreak of any size
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์ฒซ์งธ, ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์–ด๋”˜๊ฐ€์—์„œ ์–ด๋–ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘์ด
01:16
pops up somewhere in the world over a set period of time.
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์–ด๋–ค ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ํ™•๋ฅ ์„ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„๋กœ ๊ทธ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:20
And second, to estimate the likelihood that that outbreak would get large enough
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๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘์˜ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๊ฐ€ ์ปค์ ธ์„œ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ธ๊ตฌ์˜ ์ผ์ • ๋น„์œจ ์ด์ƒ์ด
01:24
to kill a certain percentage of the world's population.
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์‚ฌ๋งํ•  ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋ ์ง€ ์ถ”์ •ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:27
This graph shows that while huge pandemics are unlikely,
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์ด ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„์—์„œ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์€ ๋“œ๋ฌผ๊ธด ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
01:31
they're not that unlikely.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋“œ๋ฌผ์ง€๋Š” ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:34
The team used these two distributions to estimate that the risk
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๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ ์ด ๋‘ ๋ถ„ํฌ๋„์—์„œ
์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜19 ๊ฐ™์€ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ์œ„ํ—˜์€ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 0.5 ํผ์„ผํŠธ ์ •๋„์ด๋ฉฐ
01:37
of a COVID-19-level pandemic is about 0.5% per year,
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01:41
and could be as high as 1.4%
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์•ž์œผ๋กœ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์งˆ๋ณ‘์ด ๋” ์ž์ฃผ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
01:44
if new diseases emerge more frequently in the future.
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1.4%๊นŒ์ง€๋„ ๋†’์•„์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Œ์„ ์•Œ์•„๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:48
And weโ€™ll come back to those numbers,
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์ด ์ˆ˜์น˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๋‚˜์ค‘์— ๋‹ค์‹œ ์–˜๊ธฐํ•˜๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ,
01:49
but first, letโ€™s look at another way to estimate the likelihood
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์šฐ์„  ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค.
01:52
of a future pandemic:
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01:54
modeling one from the ground up.
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๋ฐ‘์—์„œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:56
For most pandemics to happen, a pathogen, which is a microbe that can cause disease,
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ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋ ค๋ฉด ์งˆ๋ณ‘์„ ์ผ์œผํ‚ค๋Š” ๋ฏธ์ƒ๋ฌผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ณ‘์›์ฒด๊ฐ€
02:00
has to spill over from its normal host by making contact with and infecting a human.
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์›๋ž˜ ์ˆ™์ฃผ ๋ฐ–์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜์™€ ์ธ๊ฐ„๊ณผ ์ ‘์ด‰ํ•˜๊ณ  ์˜ฎ๊ฒจ๊ฐ€์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:06
Then, the pathogen has to spread widely,
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๊ทธ๋‹ค์Œ ๋ณ‘์›์ฒด๊ฐ€ ๊ตญ๊ฒฝ์„ ๋„˜์–ด ๋„๋ฆฌ ํผ์ ธ์„œ
02:09
crossing international boundaries and infecting lots of people.
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์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ํผ์ ธ์•ผ ํ•˜์ฃ .
02:13
Many variables determine whether a given spillover event becomes a pandemic.
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์ด ์—ฌํŒŒ๊ฐ€ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์œผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์งˆ์ง€ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋Š” ๋งŽ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:18
For example, the type of pathogen, how often humans come into close contact
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์ด๋ฅผํ…Œ๋ฉด ๋ณ‘์›์ฒด์˜ ์ข…๋ฅ˜, ๋™๋ฌผ ์ „์—ผ์›์˜ ์ธ๊ฐ„ ์ ‘์ด‰ ๋นˆ๋„,
02:23
with its animal reservoir, existing immunity, and so on.
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๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ๋ฉด์—ญ๋ ฅ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด์ฃ .
02:27
Viruses are prime candidates to cause the next big pandemic.
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๋‹ค์Œ์— ์˜ฌ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์˜ ์ฃผ๋ฒ” ์—ญ์‹œ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค์ผ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ํฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:31
Scientists estimate that there are about 1.7 million as-yet-undiscovered viruses
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๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค์˜ ์ถ”์ธก์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด
์•„์ง ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋กœ์„œ ํฌ์œ ๋ฅ˜์™€ ์กฐ๋ฅ˜์— ๊ฐ์—ผ๋˜๋Š” ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๊ฐ€
02:37
that currently infect mammals and birds,
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์•ฝ ๋ฐฑ์น ์‹ญ๋งŒ ์ข… ์ •๋„ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
02:40
and that roughly 40% of these have the potential to spill over and infect humans.
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์ด๋“ค ์ค‘ ๋Œ€๋žต 40% ์ •๋„๋Š” ์ธ๊ฐ„์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ์—ผ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:46
A team of scientists built a model using this information,
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ํ•œ ๊ณผํ•™์ž ํŒ€์ด ์ด ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:49
as well as data about the global population, air travel networks,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์— ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ธ๊ตฌ ์ˆ˜์™€ ํ•ญ๊ณต ์—ฌํ–‰๋ง,
02:52
how people move around in communities, country preparedness levels,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์ง€์—ญ ๋‚ด ์ด๋™ ๋™์„ , ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์  ์ค€๋น„ ํƒœ์„ธ,
02:56
and how people might respond to pandemics.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์˜ˆ์ƒ ๋Œ€์‘์„ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:58
The model generated hundreds of thousands of virtual pandemics.
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์ด ๋ชจ๋ธ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ƒ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน ์ƒํ™ฉ ์ˆ˜์‹ญ๋งŒ ๊ฑด์„ ์‹œํ—˜ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:02
The scientists then used this catalog to estimate
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๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ ์ด ์‹œํ—˜ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ
์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜19 ๊ฐ™์€ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์ด ๋˜ ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด
03:05
that the probability of another COVID-19-level pandemic
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03:08
is 2.5 to 3.3% per year.
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์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 2.5%์—์„œ 3.3%๋ผ๊ณ  ์˜ˆ์ธกํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:12
To get a sense of how these risks play out over a lifetime,
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์ด ์ˆ˜์น˜๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋Š ์ •๋„๋กœ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ๊ฑด์ง€ ๊ฐ์ด ์˜ค์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
03:15
letโ€™s pick a value roughly in the middle of all these estimates: 2%.
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๋Œ€๋žต ์ค‘๊ฐ„์น˜๋ฅผ ์žก์•„ 2%๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ด๋ณด์ฃ .
03:19
Now letโ€™s build whatโ€™s called a probability tree diagram
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์ด์ œ ํ™•๋ฅ  ์ˆ˜ํ˜•๋„๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ทธ๋ ค์„œ
03:22
to model all possible scenarios.
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๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ์‚ดํŽด๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค.
03:25
The first branch of the tree represents the first year:
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์ˆ˜ํ˜•๋„์˜ ์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ํ•ด๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:28
thereโ€™s a 2% probability of experiencing a COVID-19-level pandemic,
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์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜19 ์ˆ˜์ค€์˜ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์„ ๊ฒช์„ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ 2 ํผ์„ผํŠธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:32
which means thereโ€™s a 98% probability of not experiencing one.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์„ ๊ฒช์ง€ ์•Š์„ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ 98%๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑธ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜์ฃ .
03:36
Second branch, same thing,
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๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋„ ๊ฐ™๊ณ  ์„ธ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋„ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:38
Third branch, same.
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03:39
And so on, 72 more times.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ผํ”๋‘ ๋ฒˆ ๋” ๋ฐ˜๋ณต๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:42
There is only one path that results in a fully pandemic-free lifetime:
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ํ‰์ƒ ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ๋„ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์„ ๊ฒช์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ฒฝ๋กœ๋Š” ๋”ฑ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:47
98%, or 0.98, multiplied by itself 75 times,
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98%, ์ฆ‰, 0.98์„ ์ผํ”๋‹ค์„ฏ ๋ฒˆ ์ œ๊ณฑํ•ด ๋ณด๋ฉด
03:52
which comes out to roughly 22%.
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๋Œ€๋žต 22% ์ •๋„ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:55
So the likelihood of living through at least one more COVID 19-level-pandemic
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ–ฅํ›„ 75๋…„ ์ด๋‚ด์— ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜19 ์ˆ˜์ค€์˜ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์„
03:59
in the next 75 years is 100 minus 22%, or 78%.
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ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ์ด์ƒ ๊ฒช์„ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ 100%-22%, ์ฆ‰, 78%์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:05
78%!
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78%์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค!
04:07
If we use the most optimistic yearly estimateโ€” 0.5%โ€”
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์ตœ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์„œ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 0.5%๋ฅผ ์ ์šฉํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด
04:11
the lifetime probability drops to 31%.
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ํ‰์ƒ์— ๊ฑธ์นœ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ 31%๊นŒ์ง€ ๋‚ฎ์•„์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:15
If we use the most pessimistic one, it jumps to 92%.
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๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๋กœ ์ตœ์•…์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋ฅผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ 92%๋กœ ํŠ€์–ด ์˜ค๋ฅด์ฃ .
04:19
Even 31% is too high to ignore;
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋‚ฎ์€ 31%์กฐ์ฐจ๋„ ๋ฌด์‹œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ํ™•๋ฅ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:22
even if we get lucky, future generations might not.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์šด์ด ์ข‹๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ํ›„์†๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
04:26
Also, pandemics are usually random, independent events:
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๋˜ํ•œ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์€ ๋ณดํ†ต ๋ฌด์ž‘์œ„๋กœ, ๋…๋ฆฝ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:29
so even if the yearly probability of a COVID-19-level pandemic is 1%,
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜19 ๊ฐ™์€ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์„ ๊ฒช์„ ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 1%๋ฐ–์— ์•ˆ ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ด๋„
04:34
we could absolutely get another one in ten years.
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10๋…„ ์•ˆ์— ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์ด ๋˜ ์˜ฌ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:38
The good news is we now have tools that make pandemics less destructive.
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๋‹คํ–‰ํžˆ๋„ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์— ๋งž์„ค ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:43
Scientists estimated that early warning systems, contact tracing,
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๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ ์กฐ๊ธฐ ๊ฒฝ๋ณด ์ฒด๊ณ„, ์ ‘์ด‰์ž ์ถ”์ฒ™,
04:46
social distancing, and other public health measures
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์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋‘๊ธฐ์™€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ณต์ค‘ ์œ„์ƒ ๋Œ€์ฑ…๋“ค ๋•๋ถ„์—
04:49
saved over a million lives in just the first six months
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜19 ๋ฐœ์ƒ ํ›„ ์ฒซ ์œก ๊ฐœ์›” ๋™์•ˆ
04:52
of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US,
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๋ฐฑ๋งŒ ๋ช…์ด ๋„˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ์‚ด๋ ธ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ถ”์ •ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:55
not to mention the millions of lives saved by vaccines.
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๋ฐฑ์‹ ์ด ์ˆ˜๋ฐฑ๋งŒ ๋ช…์˜ ๋ชฉ์ˆจ์„ ๊ตฌํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑด ๋งํ•  ํ•„์š”๋„ ์—†์ฃ .
04:59
One day, another pandemic will sweep the globe.
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์–ธ์  ๊ฐ€ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์ด ์ง€๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํœฉ์“ฐ๋Š” ๋‚ ์ด ์˜ฌ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:02
But we can work to make that day less likely to be tomorrow.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‚ด์ผ ๋‹น์žฅ ๊ทธ๋‚ ์ด ์˜ค๋Š” ๊ฑด ๋ง‰์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:06
We can reduce the risk of spillover events,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘ ํ™•์‚ฐ์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜์„ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ 
05:08
and we can contain spillovers that do happen
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ํ™•์‚ฐ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋ฉด ์ด๋ฅผ ์–ต์ œํ•ด์„œ
05:11
so they donโ€™t become full-blown pandemics.
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๋ณธ๊ฒฉ์ ์ธ ํŒฌ๋ฐ๋ฏน์ด ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ง‰์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:14
Imagine how the future might look if we interacted
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ์ƒ์ƒํ•ด ๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
๋™๋ฌผ๋“ค๊ณผ ๋” ์‹ ์ค‘ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒํ˜ธ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๊ณ ,
05:17
with the animal world more carefully,
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05:19
and if we had well-funded, open-access global disease monitoring programs,
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์žฌ์ •์ด ํƒ„ํƒ„ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ชจ๋‘์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ๋œ ๊ตญ์ œ์ ์ธ ์งˆ๋ณ‘ ๊ฐ์‹œ ์ฒด๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ณ 
05:23
AI-powered contact tracing and isolation measures,
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์ธ๊ณต ์ง€๋Šฅ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•œ ์ ‘์ด‰์ž ์ถ”์ ๊ณผ ๊ฒฉ๋ฆฌ ๋Œ€์ฑ…,
05:26
universal vaccines, next-generation antiviral drugs,
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๋ฒ”์šฉ ๋ฐฑ์‹ , ์ฐจ์„ธ๋Œ€ ํ•ญ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค์ œ,
05:29
and other tech we haven't even thought of.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ฐ๋„ ๋ชปํ•œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋“ค๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:32
Itโ€™s in our power to change these probabilities.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ํ™•๋ฅ ๋“ค์„ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ€ ํž˜์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:35
So, we have a choice: we could do nothing and hope we get lucky.
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๊ฐ€๋งŒํžˆ ์•‰์•„์„œ ์šด์ด ์ข‹๊ธฐ๋งŒ์„ ๋ฐ”๋ž„ ๊ฑด์ง€,
05:38
Or we could take the threat seriously enough
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ์ง€๋‚˜์น˜๊ฒŒ ๋น„๊ด€ํ•œ ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€
05:40
that it becomes a self-defeating prophecy.
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์ž๋ฉธ์  ์˜ˆ์–ธ์ด ๋˜๊ฒŒ ํ•  ๊ฑด์ง€ ์„ ํƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:43
Which future would you rather live in?
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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