How science fiction can help predict the future - Roey Tzezana

Kako naučna fantastika može da pomogne u predviđanju budućnosti - Roi Zezana (Roey Tzezana)

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković

Would you like to know what's in our future?

Da li želite da znate šta nas čeka u budućnosti?

What's going to happen tomorrow, next year, or even a millennium from now?

Šta će da se desi sutra, dogodine ili čak za milenijum od sad?

Well, you're not alone.

Pa, niste usamljeni.

Everyone from governments to militaries to industry leaders do, as well,

Svi: od vlada, preko vojske do industrijskih vođa to žele, takođe

and they all employ people called futurists

i svi oni zapošljavaju ljude koji se zovu futuristi

who attempt to forecast the future.

koji pokušavaju da predvide budućnost.

Some are able to do this with surprising accuracy.

Neki to rade s iznenađujućom tačnošću.

In the middle of the 20th century,

Sredinom XX veka,

a think tank known as the RAND Corporation

odsek za inovacije, poznat kao RAND korporacija

consulted dozens of scientists and futurists

je konsultovao desetine naučnika i futurista

who together forecast many of the technologies

koji su predvideli mnoge tehnologije

we take for granted today,

koje mi danas uzimamo zdravo za gotovo,

including artificial organs,

uključujući veštačke organe,

the use of birth control pills,

upotrebu kontraceptivnih pilula

and libraries able to look up research material for the reader.

i biblioteke koje mogu da pretražuju materijal za istraživanje umesto čitaoca.

One way futurists arrive at their predictions

Jedan način na koji futuristi stižu do svojih predviđanja

is by analyzing movements and trends in society,

je analizom kretanja i trendova u društvu

and charting the paths they are likely to follow into the future

i praveći grafike staza koje će najverovatnije slediti u budućnosti,

with varying degrees of probability.

s različitim stepenom verovatnoće.

Their work informs the decisions of policymakers and world leaders,

Obaveštavaju o svom radu zakonodavce i svetske vođe,

enabling them to weigh options for the future

omogućujući im da odmeravaju opcije za budućnost

that otherwise could not have been imagined in such depth or detail.

koje u suprotnom ne bi mogli da zamisle tako temeljno i podrobno.

Of course, there are obvious limits to how certain anyone can be about the future.

Naravno, postoje granice koliko bilo ko može biti siguran po pitanju budućnosti.

There are always unimaginable discoveries that arise

Uvek se pojave nezamisliva otkrića

which would make no sense to anyone in the present.

koja ne bi imala smisla ni za koga iz sadašnjosti.

Imagine, for example,

Zamislite, na primer,

transporting a physicist from the middle of the 19th century

da prebacite fizičara iz sredine XIX veka

into the 21st.

u XXI vek.

You explain to him that a strange material exists, Uranium 235,

Objasnite mu postojanje čudne materije, uranijuma 235,

that of its own accord can produce enough energy to power an entire city,

koji sam može da proizvede dovoljno energije da snabdeva čitav grad

or destroy it one fell swoop.

ili da ga uništi jednim udarcem.

"How can such energy come from nowhere?" he would demand to know.

"Kako tolika energija može da dođe niodakle?", želeo bi da zna.

"That's not science, that's magic."

"To nije nauka, to je čarolija."

And for all intents and purposes, he would be right.

I praktično bi bio u pravu.

His 19th century grasp of science

Njegovo shvatanje nauke iz XIX veka

includes no knowledge of radioactivity or nuclear physics.

ne uključuje znanje o radioaktivnosti ili nuklearnoj fizici.

In his day, no forecast of the future could have predicted X-rays,

U njegovo vreme, nijedna vizija budućnosti nije mogla da predvidi iks zrake

or the atom bomb,

ili atomsku bombu,

let alone the theory of relativity

da ne govorimo o teoriji relativnosti

or quantum mechanics.

ili kvantnoj mehanici.

As Arthur C. Clarke has said,

Kako je Artur Č. Klark rekao:

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

"Svaka značajnije napredna tehnologija je neraspoznatljiva od čarolije."

How can we prepare, then, for a future that will be as magical to us

Kako da se onda pripremimo za budućnost koja će nam biti jednako čarobna

as our present would appear to someone from the 19th century?

koliko bi i naša sadašnjost izgledala nekome iz XIX veka?

We may think our modern technology and advanced data analysis techniques

Možda smatramo da bi nam naša moderna tehnologija i napredna obrada podataka,

might allow us to predict the future with much more accuracy

mogle omogućiti da predviđamo budućnost preciznije

than our 19th century counterpart,

od naših predaka iz XIX veka

and rightly so.

i s pravom tako mislimo.

However, it's also true that our technological progress

Međutim, takođe je tačno da je naš tehnološki napredak

has brought with it new increasingly complex and unpredictable challenges.

doneo sa sobom nove, sve složenije i nepredvidljivije izazove.

The stakes for future generations to be able to imagine the unimaginable

Šanse za buduće generacije da zamisle nezamislivo

are higher than ever before.

su manje nego ikad pre.

So the question remains:

Zato ostaje pitanje:

how do we do that?

kako da to uradimo?

One promising answer has actually been with us since the 19th century

Jedan odgovor koji obećava je zapravo s nama od XIX veka

and the Industrial Revolution

i Industrijske revolucije

that laid the foundation for our modern world.

koja je postavila temelje našem savremenom svetu.

During this time of explosive development and invention,

Tokom ovog perioda eksplozivnog razvoja i izuma,

a new form of literature, science fiction, also emerged.

pojavio se novi oblik književnosti - naučna fantastika.

Inspired by the innovations of the day, Jules Verne, H.G. Wells,

Podstaknuti izumima iz svog doba, Žil Vern, H. Dž. Vels

and other prolific thinkers explored fantastic scenarios,

i drugi plodni mislioci su istraživali fantastična scenarija,

depicting new frontiers of human endeavor.

oslikavajući nove granice ljudskih pregnuća.

And throughout the 20th century and into the 21st,

A tokom XX i početkom XXI veka,

storytellers have continued to share their visions of the future

pripovedači su nastavili da dele svoje zamisli budućnosti

and correctly predicted many aspects of the world we inhabit decades later.

i s tačnošću su predvideli mnoge aspekte sveta u kom smo živeli decenijama kasnije.

In "Brave New World,"

U "Vrlom novom svetu",

Aldous Huxley foretold the use of antidepressants in 1932,

Oldos Haksli je 1932. predvideo upotrebu antidepresiva,

long before such medication became popular.

mnogo pre nego što su slični lekovi postali popularni.

In 1953, Ray Bradbury's "Fahrenheit 451," forecast earbuds,

Rej Bredberi je 1953. u "Farenhajtu 451" predvideo slušalice - bubice,

"thimble radios," in his words.

zvao ih je "radio naprscima".

And in "2001: A Space Odyssey,"

A u "Odiseji u svemiru: 2001"

Arthur C. Clarke described a portable, flat-screen news pad in 1968.

Artur Č. Klark je 1968. opisao prenosivu ploču s ravnim ekranom za vesti.

In works that often combine entertainment and social commentary,

U delima koja često objedinjuju zabavu i društvenu kritiku,

we are invited to suspend our disbelief and consider the consequences

pozvani smo da obuzdamo nevericu i da razmotrimo posledice

of radical shifts in familiar and deeply engrained institutions.

radikalnih promena u poznatim i ustaljenim institucijama.

In this sense,

U tom smislu,

the best science fiction fulfills the words of philosopher Michel Foucault,

najbolja dela naučne fantastike zadovoljavaju reči filozofa Mišela Fukoa:

"I'm no prophet. My job is making windows where there were once walls."

"Nisam prorok. Moj posao je da napravim prozore tamo gde su nekad bili zidovi."

Free from the constraints of the present and our assumptions of what's impossible,

Oslobođena sprega sadašnjosti i naših pretpostavki o tome šta je nemoguće,

science fiction serves as a useful tool for thinking outside of the box.

naučna fantastika je korisno oruđe za razmišljanje van kalupa.

Many futurists recognize this,

Mnogi futuristi su to prepoznali

and some are beginning to employ science fictions writers in their teams.

i neki su počeli da zapošljavaju pisce naučne fantastike u svojim ekipama.

Just recently, a project called iKnow proposed scenarios

Baš je nedavno projekt, nazvan iKnow, predložio scenarija

that look much like science fiction stories.

koja poprilično liče na naučnofantastične priče.

They include the discovery of an alien civilization,

Ona uključuju otkriće vanzemaljske civilizacije,

development of a way for humans and animals to communicate flawlessly,

razvoj načina za ljude i životinje da besprekorno komuniciraju

and radical life extension.

i radikalno produženje životnog veka.

So, what does the future hold?

Pa, šta nas čeka u budućnosti?

Of course, we can't know for certain,

Naravno da ne možemo zasigurno da znamo,

but science fiction shows us many possibilities.

ali naučna fantastika nam ukazuje na brojne mogućnosti.

Ultimately, it is our responsibility

Naposletku, naša je odgovornost

to determine which we will work towards making a reality.

da odredimo na ostvarenju kojih od njih ćemo da radimo.