How science fiction can help predict the future - Roey Tzezana

翻译人员: YuFei Liang 校对人员: Coco Shen

Would you like to know what's in our future?

你想知道未来么？

What's going to happen tomorrow, next year, or even a millennium from now?

明天，明年，甚至千年之后， 都会发生什么呢？

Well, you're not alone.

好吧，你不是第一个这样思考的人。

Everyone from governments to militaries to industry leaders do, as well,

任何人，从政府及军方到私企老板 都和你一样想要知道，

and they all employ people called futurists

他们都雇佣了同一种人，未来主义者。

who attempt to forecast the future.

——就是那些可以预言未来的人。

Some are able to do this with surprising accuracy.

他们中的一些人预言的精准度令人惊叹，

In the middle of the 20th century,

在20世纪中期，

a think tank known as the RAND Corporation

有一个出名的智囊团，兰德公司，

consulted dozens of scientists and futurists

拥有众多科学家及未来主义者。

who together forecast many of the technologies

他们一起预言了许多

we take for granted today,

我们如今认为是理所当然的科技技术。

including artificial organs,

比如人造器官，

the use of birth control pills,

避孕药的使用，

and libraries able to look up research material for the reader.

以及图书馆能协助读者查寻资料库的技术，

One way futurists arrive at their predictions

未来主义者能够准确预言的方法之一

is by analyzing movements and trends in society,

是分析社会变迁及大趋势，

and charting the paths they are likely to follow into the future

并预测出他们在未来发生的

with varying degrees of probability.

不同程度的可能性。

Their work informs the decisions of policymakers and world leaders,

他们的工作成果影响着政策制定者和领袖们，

enabling them to weigh options for the future

使他们能够权衡影响未来的决定，

that otherwise could not have been imagined in such depth or detail.

否则他们的思想无法 达到如此深又精细的地步。

Of course, there are obvious limits to how certain anyone can be about the future.

当然，任何人所能预测的未来都是有限的。

There are always unimaginable discoveries that arise

超出预计的新发现总在出现

which would make no sense to anyone in the present.

这些发现或许对于现在的我们毫无意义。

Imagine, for example,

想象一下，比如，

transporting a physicist from the middle of the 19th century

将一位来自十九世纪中期的物理学家

into the 21st.

传送到二十一世纪。

You explain to him that a strange material exists, Uranium 235,

你将一种奇特的物质介绍给他，鈾235，

that of its own accord can produce enough energy to power an entire city,

它自身裂变的能量 就能供给于一整座城市的需求，

or destroy it one fell swoop.

也能在一瞬间摧毁它。

"How can such energy come from nowhere?" he would demand to know.

“这样的能量如何能无中生有？” 他一定会想知道。

"That's not science, that's magic."

“这不是科学，是魔法。”

And for all intents and purposes, he would be right.

从任何角度上讲， 他都是对的。

His 19th century grasp of science

他十九世纪的科学知识中

includes no knowledge of radioactivity or nuclear physics.

没有任何关于放射性亦或核物理的知识。

In his day, no forecast of the future could have predicted X-rays,

在那时，没有任何预言能够预言到X光射线，

or the atom bomb,

或者原子弹，

let alone the theory of relativity

更不用说相对论

or quantum mechanics.

或是量子力学。

As Arthur C. Clarke has said,

就像亚瑟.克拉克所说，

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

“任何足够先进的技术 都难于和魔术区分开来。”

How can we prepare, then, for a future that will be as magical to us

我们如何才能为一个 几近于魔术般的未来做准备呢？

as our present would appear to someone from the 19th century?

就如同某个来自于 十九世纪的人看着现在的我们。

We may think our modern technology and advanced data analysis techniques

我们或许认为现代技术和数据分析

might allow us to predict the future with much more accuracy

相对十九世纪的技术与人们

than our 19th century counterpart,

可以使我们更准确的预测未来，

and rightly so.

是这样没错。

However, it's also true that our technological progress

但是同时，我们的技术进步

has brought with it new increasingly complex and unpredictable challenges.

也面对着前所未有的挑战和复杂性。

The stakes for future generations to be able to imagine the unimaginable

对于未来的人们来说， 预测未来的困难度

are higher than ever before.

将是盈千累万的。

So the question remains:

所以问题依旧存在：

how do we do that?

我们如何为未来做准备？

One promising answer has actually been with us since the 19th century

一个成功的答案 其实从十九世纪

and the Industrial Revolution

及工业革命

that laid the foundation for our modern world.

——基奠了现代社会 基础的时期就开始出现了。

During this time of explosive development and invention,

在这段充斥着大量发现与发明的时期，

a new form of literature, science fiction, also emerged.

一种新的小说形式， 科幻小说因运而生了。

Inspired by the innovations of the day, Jules Verne, H.G. Wells,

当时的创新启发了 儒勒·凡尔纳和赫伯特·乔治·威尔斯

and other prolific thinkers explored fantastic scenarios,

以及其他思想家一同寻找不真实的情景，

depicting new frontiers of human endeavor.

并描绘出人类世界的新边界。

And throughout the 20th century and into the 21st,

纵观20至21世纪，

storytellers have continued to share their visions of the future

故事家从不曾断绝分享他们对于未来的看法

and correctly predicted many aspects of the world we inhabit decades later.

并且成功预言了许多 几个世纪之后我们的世界所发生的事。

In "Brave New World,"

在《美丽新世界》这本书中，

Aldous Huxley foretold the use of antidepressants in 1932,

1932年，阿道斯·雷歐那德·赫胥黎 预言到了抗抑郁药的使用，

long before such medication became popular.

这是在这种药剂普及开来的很久以前。

In 1953, Ray Bradbury's "Fahrenheit 451," forecast earbuds,

1953年，雷·布萊伯利 在《华氏451度》中预言到了耳机，

"thimble radios," in his words.

“顶针式无线电，”他这样描述。

And in "2001: A Space Odyssey,"

在电影"2001年：太空漫游" 中

Arthur C. Clarke described a portable, flat-screen news pad in 1968.

生活在1968年的亚瑟·克拉克描绘了一个 便携式平板新闻发射台（Pad）。

In works that often combine entertainment and social commentary,

拥有娱乐及社交实况报道 双重功能的作品鼓励我们，

we are invited to suspend our disbelief and consider the consequences

暂停自己的难以置信 并结合现实情况考虑

of radical shifts in familiar and deeply engrained institutions.

发生在熟悉的事物 与根深蒂固的传统上巨大的变化。

In this sense,

这样说，

the best science fiction fulfills the words of philosopher Michel Foucault,

最好的科幻小说 诠释了哲学家米歇尔·福柯的话：

"I'm no prophet. My job is making windows where there were once walls."

”我不是预言家。 我的工作是为墙面制作一扇窗户。“

Free from the constraints of the present and our assumptions of what's impossible,

摆脱“现实”的束缚以及 对于事情是”不可能发生的“的假设，

science fiction serves as a useful tool for thinking outside of the box.

科幻小说是一个让我们摆脱思维定式的工具。

Many futurists recognize this,

许多预言家都发现了这点，

and some are beginning to employ science fictions writers in their teams.

他们中的一些人 开始为团队雇佣科幻小说家，

Just recently, a project called iKnow proposed scenarios

就在最近， 一个叫做”iKnow“的项目提出了假设，

that look much like science fiction stories.

一个看上去更像是科幻故事的假设，

They include the discovery of an alien civilization,

他们囊括了外星文明的发现，

development of a way for humans and animals to communicate flawlessly,

发展处一种可以让 动物与人类无障碍交流的方法，

and radical life extension.

以及延长有限的生命。

So, what does the future hold?

所以，未来到底会有什么？

Of course, we can't know for certain,

当然，我们现在还无法获知，

but science fiction shows us many possibilities.

但科幻小说给予了我们许多可能性。

Ultimately, it is our responsibility

最终，努力实现其中的某一种，

to determine which we will work towards making a reality.

是我们的责任。