How science fiction can help predict the future - Roey Tzezana

譯者: Jenna Tsai 審譯者: jim 陳哲民

Would you like to know what's in our future?

想知道我們的未來會是什麼樣子嗎？

What's going to happen tomorrow, next year, or even a millennium from now?

明天會有什麼事情發生？ 明年呢？甚至一千年後呢？

Well, you're not alone.

嗯，不只你想知道答案。

Everyone from governments to militaries to industry leaders do, as well,

這是政府每個人、軍方、 還有企業領導人都想知道的答案，

and they all employ people called futurists

他們都雇用了那些叫做「未來主義者」的人，

who attempt to forecast the future.

他們嘗試著預測未來。

Some are able to do this with surprising accuracy.

有些人的預測甚至驚人的準確。

In the middle of the 20th century,

在二十世紀中，

a think tank known as the RAND Corporation

有一個德蘭公司的智囊團，

consulted dozens of scientists and futurists

諮詢了很多科學家及未來主義者，

who together forecast many of the technologies

他們一起預測很多現今我們

we take for granted today,

認為理所當然的技術。

including artificial organs,

包含人工器官、

the use of birth control pills,

避孕藥的使用、

and libraries able to look up research material for the reader.

及圖書館提供讀者檢索研究資料的服務。

One way futurists arrive at their predictions

有一種未來主義者達到他們預測的方法

is by analyzing movements and trends in society,

是分析社會的變遷與趨勢，

and charting the paths they are likely to follow into the future

然後詳細記錄它們在不同程度的可能性

with varying degrees of probability.

未來可能跟從的路徑。

Their work informs the decisions of policymakers and world leaders,

他們的工作告訴了決策者 及世界領袖們要做的決定，

enabling them to weigh options for the future

使他們能夠為未來的選擇做衡量，

that otherwise could not have been imagined in such depth or detail.

不然他們無法想像到一定的深度與細節。

Of course, there are obvious limits to how certain anyone can be about the future.

任何人對於未來的把握度 當然會有明顯的限制。

There are always unimaginable discoveries that arise

世上總會出現讓人無法想像的發現

which would make no sense to anyone in the present.

現在的我們可能認為這些發現不合理。

Imagine, for example,

想像一下，舉個例子，

transporting a physicist from the middle of the 19th century

將一個物理學家從十九世紀中

into the 21st.

運送到二十一世紀。

You explain to him that a strange material exists, Uranium 235,

你向他解釋有一個奇怪的物質存在著，

叫做「鈾235」。

that of its own accord can produce enough energy to power an entire city,

它會自動產生足夠供應整座城市的能源，

or destroy it one fell swoop.

甚至一下子就能把它摧毀。

"How can such energy come from nowhere?" he would demand to know.

而他會要求知道 「如此強大的能量為何會無中生有？」

"That's not science, that's magic."

「這不是科學，這是魔法。」

And for all intents and purposes, he would be right.

在所有本意與意圖下，他可能是對的。

His 19th century grasp of science

他於十九世紀對科學的理解

includes no knowledge of radioactivity or nuclear physics.

並不包含放射性或核能物理學的知識。

In his day, no forecast of the future could have predicted X-rays,

在他的年代，沒有人能預測未來能有X光

or the atom bomb,

或是原子彈，

let alone the theory of relativity

更不用說會有相對論

or quantum mechanics.

或量子力學。

As Arthur C. Clarke has said,

科幻小說家亞瑟‧克拉克曾說過

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

「任何夠先進的技術都跟魔術沒什麼兩樣。」

How can we prepare, then, for a future that will be as magical to us

那麼，我們該如何為那看似 魔法世界的未來做準備呢？

as our present would appear to someone from the 19th century?

就像來自十九世紀的人看現今的世界。

We may think our modern technology and advanced data analysis techniques

我們可能會覺得現代科技與先進的數據分析技術

might allow us to predict the future with much more accuracy

能讓我們能夠更準確的預測未來

than our 19th century counterpart,

比起十九世紀那時候來說的話，

and rightly so.

會是這樣沒錯。

However, it's also true that our technological progress

然而，科技的進步確實也伴隨著

has brought with it new increasingly complex and unpredictable challenges.

前所未見的挑戰，越來越複雜且無法預料。

The stakes for future generations to be able to imagine the unimaginable

要去想像難以想像的事物對未來世代來說

are higher than ever before.

所含的風險比以前高的許多。

So the question remains:

所以現在的問題是：

how do we do that?

我們如何做到？

One promising answer has actually been with us since the 19th century

一個很有展望的答案其實一直存在著， 自從十九世紀

and the Industrial Revolution

以及那奠定現代世界

that laid the foundation for our modern world.

基礎的工業革命。

During this time of explosive development and invention,

這段期間，大量的開發與發明迅速激增，

a new form of literature, science fiction, also emerged.

因而產生了一種新的文學形式──科幻小說。

Inspired by the innovations of the day, Jules Verne, H.G. Wells,

當時的創新啟發了凡爾納、威爾斯 （現代科幻小說的開山宗師）

and other prolific thinkers explored fantastic scenarios,

和其他豐富思想家去探究許多不真實的情境，

depicting new frontiers of human endeavor.

描繪出人類探索的新邊界。

And throughout the 20th century and into the 21st,

從一開始的二十世紀進入到二十一世紀，

storytellers have continued to share their visions of the future

故事作家們一直分享著他們對未來的看法，

and correctly predicted many aspects of the world we inhabit decades later.

並正確的預測到許多見解 關於幾十年後我們所居的世界。

In "Brave New World,"

在【美麗新世界】這本書中，

Aldous Huxley foretold the use of antidepressants in 1932,

作者奧爾德斯‧赫胥黎在1932年 預言了抗憂鬱劑的使用，

long before such medication became popular.

那時，還要好長一段時間才被廣為人知。

In 1953, Ray Bradbury's "Fahrenheit 451," forecast earbuds,

1953年，在雷‧布萊伯利的書 【華氏451度】預言了耳機，

"thimble radios," in his words.

「海貝耳機」在書中他這麼寫。

And in "2001: A Space Odyssey,"

而在【2001：太空漫遊】中，

Arthur C. Clarke described a portable, flat-screen news pad in 1968.

亞瑟‧克拉克在1968年 描述了一個可攜式的電子書平板。

In works that often combine entertainment and social commentary,

常結合娛樂與社會評論的作品鼓勵我們

we are invited to suspend our disbelief and consider the consequences

停止懷疑並認真去想已深根蒂固

of radical shifts in familiar and deeply engrained institutions.

而熟知的傳統風俗若有了極端的變化， 後果會是什麼？

In this sense,

這麼說來，

the best science fiction fulfills the words of philosopher Michel Foucault,

最佳的科幻小說完整了哲學家米歇爾‧福柯的話；

"I'm no prophet. My job is making windows where there were once walls."

「我不是預言家。我的工作是為 曾經是牆的地方製作窗戶。」

Free from the constraints of the present and our assumptions of what's impossible,

擺脫現在的束縛 及我們對不可能的事所做的假定，

science fiction serves as a useful tool for thinking outside of the box.

科幻小說是個很有用的工具， 它讓我們跳脫框架。

Many futurists recognize this,

很多未來主義者了解了這一點，

and some are beginning to employ science fictions writers in their teams.

有些甚至雇用了科幻小說家加入他們的團隊。

Just recently, a project called iKnow proposed scenarios

直到最近，有一個計畫叫做 iKnow，提出了許多

that look much like science fiction stories.

科幻小說中會出現的情境。

They include the discovery of an alien civilization,

內容包含了外星文明的發現、

development of a way for humans and animals to communicate flawlessly,

發展出一個能讓人類與動物溝通無礙的方式、

and radical life extension.

以及延續生命的極致。

So, what does the future hold?

所以，未來到底有什麼？

Of course, we can't know for certain,

當然，我們沒辦法確定，

but science fiction shows us many possibilities.

但科幻小說透露出了很多可能性。

Ultimately, it is our responsibility

終究，我們的責任是去決定何種 可能性是我們該努力實現的。

to determine which we will work towards making a reality.