Marc Goodman: A vision of crimes in the future

219,957 views ・ 2012-07-12

TED


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譯者: Barry Hu 審譯者: Yuguo Zhang
00:15
I study the future
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我研究犯罪與恐怖主義
00:18
of crime and terrorism,
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未來的發展
00:22
and frankly, I'm afraid.
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坦白說,我蠻害怕的
00:25
I'm afraid by what I see.
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我看到的將來,讓我很擔心
00:26
I sincerely want to believe
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我真心希望
00:29
that technology can bring us
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科技能帶我們到
00:31
the techno-utopia that we've been promised,
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科技烏托邦的願景
00:34
but, you see,
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但,這麼說吧
00:36
I've spent a career in law enforcement,
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我一生都在執法單位
00:39
and that's informed my perspective on things.
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讓我發展出相關看法
00:42
I've been a street police officer,
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我做過基層警員
00:44
an undercover investigator,
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也做過臥底調查員
00:46
a counter-terrorism strategist,
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參與反恐策略的規劃
00:48
and I've worked in more than 70 countries
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我曾在70幾個國家做過相關工作
00:50
around the world.
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遍佈全世界
00:51
I've had to see more than my fair share
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我見識夠多
00:53
of violence and the darker underbelly of society,
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暴力,以及陰暗的社會下層
00:56
and that's informed my opinions.
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我的看法因之成形
01:01
My work with criminals and terrorists
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和罪犯及恐怖份子交手的經驗
01:02
has actually been highly educational.
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非常有教育性
01:05
They have taught me a lot, and I'd like to be able
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我學到許多,在此讓我和大家分享
01:07
to share some of these observations with you.
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我的部分觀察
01:11
Today I'm going to show you the flip side
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今天,我要和各位分享,讓我們嘖嘖稱奇的科技
01:13
of all those technologies that we marvel at,
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也有我們意料不到的另一面
01:17
the ones that we love.
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一樣是我們喜愛的科技
01:19
In the hands of the TED community,
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在TED 社區成員手裡
01:21
these are awesome tools which will bring about
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它們都是很棒的工具
01:24
great change for our world,
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可以給世界帶來很大改變
01:28
but in the hands of suicide bombers,
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但在自殺炸彈客手中
01:30
the future can look quite different.
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卻會讓我們的將來卻完全走樣
01:34
I started observing
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當我年輕時,還是在街上值勤的基層警員時
01:36
technology and how criminals were using it
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我就開始觀察罪犯們如何運用科技
01:38
as a young patrol officer.
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幫助他們犯罪
01:40
In those days, this was the height of technology.
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那時,這些就是最好的科技產品
01:44
Laugh though you will,
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當然你會笑
01:46
all the drug dealers and gang members
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但我碰過的藥頭和幫派份子
01:47
with whom I dealt had one of these
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卻是人手一機
01:49
long before any police officer I knew did.
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比所有我認識的警察都要早
01:54
Twenty years later, criminals are still using
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二十年後,罪犯們
01:56
mobile phones, but they're also building
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還是用手機,但他們也已經建構了
02:00
their own mobile phone networks,
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專屬的私人行動電話網路
02:03
like this one, which has been deployed
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就像各位在此看到的這些
02:05
in all 31 states of Mexico by the narcos.
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在墨西哥全國31省都有,全由毒梟打造建構
02:09
They have a national encrypted
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他們的無線通訊系統
02:11
radio communications system.
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及於全國,所有通訊全部加密
02:14
Think about that.
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想想
02:16
Think about the innovation that went into that.
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想想所需的創新科技
02:20
Think about the infrastructure to build it.
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想想要這需要多龐大基層結構
02:22
And then think about this:
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然後再想想:
02:24
Why can't I get a cell phone signal in San Francisco? (Laughter)
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為什麼在我的手機在舊金山還有訊號的死角 (笑聲)
02:28
How is this possible? (Laughter) It makes no sense. (Applause)
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這怎麼搞的?(笑聲)一點道理都沒有(掌聲)
02:33
We consistently underestimate
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我們一直都低估
02:34
what criminals and terrorists can do.
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罪犯和恐怖份子的能力
02:38
Technology has made our world
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科技讓我們的世界
02:39
increasingly open, and for the most part,
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越來越開放,大致來說
02:41
that's great, but all of this openness
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這是好事,但我們的的開放
02:44
may have unintended consequences.
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也帶來意想不到的後果
02:46
Consider the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai.
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想想2008年發生於孟買的恐怖攻擊
02:50
The men that carried that attack out were armed
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恐怖份子配備有
02:54
with AK-47s, explosives and hand grenades.
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AK47步槍,炸藥,以及手榴彈
02:57
They threw these hand grenades
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他們把手榴彈
02:59
at innocent people as they sat eating in cafes
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扔到餐廳吃東西的無辜民眾群中
03:02
and waited to catch trains on their way home from work.
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扔到等火車回家的乘客們當中
03:07
But heavy artillery is nothing new in terrorist operations.
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恐怖行動裡用重軍火並不稀奇
03:10
Guns and bombs are nothing new.
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槍枝和炸彈已屢見不鮮
03:13
What was different this time
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為什麼這一次不一樣
03:14
is the way that the terrorists used
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因為恐怖份子使用
03:17
modern information communications technologies
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現代資訊傳訊科技
03:19
to locate additional victims and slaughter them.
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幫他們找出更多的受害者,殺害他們
03:25
They were armed with mobile phones.
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他們都帶了手機
03:27
They had BlackBerries.
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他們用黑梅機
03:29
They had access to satellite imagery.
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他們能透過衛星接收照片
03:31
They had satellite phones, and they even had night vision goggles.
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他們用衛星電話,甚至用夜視鏡
03:36
But perhaps their greatest innovation was this.
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但他們最厲害的創新是這個:
03:39
We've all seen pictures like this
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我們都看過這樣的相片
03:41
on television and in the news. This is an operations center.
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在電視上,新聞報導裡。這是行動中控中心
03:44
And the terrorists built their very own op center
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恐怖份子也建構自己的中控中心
03:47
across the border in Pakistan,
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設在邊界的另一端,巴基斯坦
03:50
where they monitored the BBC,
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在那裡監視BBC的新聞
03:51
al Jazeera, CNN and Indian local stations.
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半島電台,CNN,還有印度當地的廣播
03:56
They also monitored the Internet and social media
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他們也監視網際網路,以及社會媒體
04:01
to monitor the progress of their attacks
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掌控他們攻擊的進展
04:03
and how many people they had killed.
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統計他們殺害的人數
04:05
They did all of this in real time.
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全部都是即時掌控
04:09
The innovation of the terrorist operations center
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恐怖份子使用行動中控中心這項創新
04:12
gave terrorists unparalleled situational awareness
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讓他們對事件當場的狀況精準掌握
04:16
and tactical advantage over the police
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享有遠優於警方,政府的戰術優勢
04:18
and over the government.
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這前所未見
04:21
What did they do with this?
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他們怎麼用這些科技呢?
04:22
They used it to great effect.
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非常有效果。
04:24
At one point during the 60-hour siege,
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在60小時僵持中,有一度
04:26
the terrorists were going room to room
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恐怖份子逐房搜索
04:28
trying to find additional victims.
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要找更多的受害者
04:31
They came upon a suite on the top floor
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他們到了旅館頂樓的一間套房
04:32
of the hotel, and they kicked down the door
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破門而入
04:34
and they found a man hiding by his bed.
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找到一個躲在床邊的男人
04:37
And they said to him, "Who are you,
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他們問他: "你是誰
04:39
and what are you doing here?"
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你到這裡做什麼?"
04:41
And the man replied,
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這人回答,
04:42
"I'm just an innocent schoolteacher."
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"我只是個無辜的老師"
04:46
Of course, the terrorists knew
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當然,這些恐怖份子知道
04:48
that no Indian schoolteacher stays at a suite in the Taj.
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印度的老師不可能住的起Taj的頂樓套房
04:52
They picked up his identification,
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他們拿他的身份證件
04:54
and they phoned his name in to the terrorist war room,
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打電話到他們的中控中心通報這男子的名字
04:57
where the terrorist war room Googled him,
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中控中心的人用Google搜索
05:00
and found a picture and called their operatives
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找到一張照片,然後回電給
05:03
on the ground and said,
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在旅館的恐怖份子,問他:
05:04
"Your hostage, is he heavyset?
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"你抓的人,是不是胖胖的,
05:08
Is he bald in front? Does he wear glasses?"
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前額微禿?他戴眼鏡嗎?"
05:13
"Yes, yes, yes," came the answers.
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他回答:"是,對,有"
05:18
The op center had found him and they had a match.
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中控中心知道他是誰了
05:20
He was not a schoolteacher.
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他不是老師
05:21
He was the second-wealthiest businessman in India,
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他是印度第二富有的商人
05:25
and after discovering this information,
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有了這項消息後
05:26
the terrorist war room gave the order
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中控中心下令
05:29
to the terrorists on the ground in Mumbai.
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對在孟買現場的恐怖份子下令
05:32
("Kill him.")
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("把他殺了")
05:35
We all worry about our privacy settings
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我們對我們在臉書上
05:39
on Facebook,
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隱私權設定都非常在意
05:40
but the fact of the matter is,
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但這裡的問題在
05:43
our openness can be used against us.
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我們的開放,可以被人拿來對付我們
05:46
Terrorists are doing this.
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恐怖份子就這麼幹
05:48
A search engine can determine
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搜索引擎可以決定
05:52
who shall live and who shall die.
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我們的生死
05:56
This is the world that we live in.
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這就是我們世界的現實
05:59
During the Mumbai siege,
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在孟買事件裡
06:00
terrorists were so dependent on technology
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恐怖份子非常依賴科技
06:03
that several witnesses reported that
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幾個目擊者描述
06:05
as the terrorists were shooting hostages with one hand,
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這些恐怖份子一手用槍殺人
06:08
they were checking their mobile phone messages
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另一手拿著手機
06:10
in the very other hand.
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檢查收到的訊息
06:13
In the end, 300 people were gravely wounded
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最後,300人重傷
06:16
and over 172 men, women and children
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超過172人,男的,女的,小孩
06:20
lost their lives that day.
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喪失了生命
06:24
Think about what happened.
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想想
06:26
During this 60-hour siege on Mumbai,
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在孟買的60個凶險小時
06:29
10 men armed not just with weapons,
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10個人,配備了不只是武器
06:33
but with technology,
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還配備了科技
06:35
were able to bring a city of 20 million people
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能夠把一個2千萬人口的城市
06:39
to a standstill.
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陷入停滯
06:41
Ten people brought 20 million people
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10個人,讓2千萬人
06:43
to a standstill, and this traveled around the world.
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完全停滯,全世界都看到了
06:47
This is what radicals can do with openness.
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激進份子這般利用我們的開放
06:53
This was done nearly four years ago.
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這是將近四年前發生的事
06:56
What could terrorists do today
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今天的恐怖份子
06:58
with the technologies available that we have?
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又會如何利用最新的科技呢?
07:00
What will they do tomorrow?
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他們明天會怎麼做?
07:04
The ability of one to affect many
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一個人能影響許多人
07:06
is scaling exponentially,
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這種影響能力正以等比級數方式增加
07:09
and it's scaling for good and it's scaling for evil.
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不管是好事,或是壞事,都一樣
07:13
It's not just about terrorism, though.
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這也不光只限於恐怖主義
07:15
There's also been a big paradigm shift in crime.
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犯罪模式也產生變化
07:17
You see, you can now commit more crime as well.
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犯罪規模也變大了
07:22
In the old days, it was a knife and a gun.
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過去,我們用刀用槍
07:24
Then criminals moved to robbing trains.
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然後發展到搶火車
07:26
You could rob 200 people on a train, a great innovation.
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能一次搶火車上200名乘客,這是一大創新
07:30
Moving forward, the Internet
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繼續到今日,有了網際網路
07:32
allowed things to scale even more.
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規模變的更大
07:34
In fact, many of you will remember
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其實,你們大都記得
07:35
the recent Sony PlayStation hack.
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最近發生的索尼PlayStation被駭事件
07:37
In that incident, over 100 million people were robbed.
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超過1億的人被搶了
07:44
Think about that.
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想想
07:45
When in the history of humanity
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人類歷史上
07:47
has it ever been possible for one person
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什麼時候有過這種事
07:49
to rob 100 million?
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一個人搶1億個人?
07:54
Of course, it's not just about stealing things.
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當然,也不全只是偷東西
07:56
There are other avenues of technology
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還有其他科技
07:59
that criminals can exploit.
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罪犯們可以運用
08:00
Many of you will remember this super cute video
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你們大都記上次TED大會時
08:03
from the last TED,
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有段超Q的影片
08:06
but not all quadcopter swarms are so nice and cute.
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但並非所有四螺旋槳直昇機都這麼和善,這麼可愛
08:11
They don't all have drumsticks.
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有些配備的可不是打鼓棒
08:13
Some can be armed with HD cameras
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有些可以配備高解析度(HD)攝影機
08:15
and do countersurveillance on protesters,
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對抗議的人做反情搜
08:17
or, as in this little bit of movie magic,
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或者如這段影片顯示的
08:20
quadcopters can be loaded with firearms
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有些可配備槍械
08:24
and automatic weapons.
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自動武器
08:27
Little robots are cute when they play music to you.
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會播放音樂的小機器人很可愛
08:30
When they swarm and chase you down the block
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但當它們蜂擁而至,追著你在街上跑
08:33
to shoot you, a little bit less so.
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對你射擊,就不那麼可愛了
08:37
Of course, criminals and terrorists weren't the first
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當然,罪犯和恐怖主義份子沒有發明在機器人上裝置武器
08:39
to give guns to robots. We know where that started.
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我們都知道誰是始作俑者
08:41
But they're adapting quickly.
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但他們學的很快
08:43
Recently, the FBI arrested
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最近,聯邦調查局(FBI)在美國逮捕了
08:45
an al Qaeda affiliate in the United States,
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一個凱達組織成員
08:47
who was planning on using these remote-controlled
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他計畫用這些遙控模型飛機
08:48
drone aircraft to fly C4 explosives
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裝上C4塑膠炸藥
08:51
into government buildings in the United States.
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攻擊美國的政府辦公大樓
08:54
By the way, these travel at over 600 miles an hour.
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對了,這些飛機時速高達每小時600英里
08:59
Every time a new technology is being introduced,
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每當任何新科技發明了
09:02
criminals are there to exploit it.
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罪犯就想運用它們
09:04
We've all seen 3D printers.
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我們都看過3D列印裝置
09:06
We know with them that you can print
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用這些裝置
09:07
in many materials ranging from plastic
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配上不同材料,包括塑膠
09:10
to chocolate to metal and even concrete.
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巧克力,金屬,甚至混凝土
09:14
With great precision
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只要夠精細
09:16
I actually was able to make this
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我真的做出了這玩意
09:18
just the other day, a very cute little ducky.
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幾天前剛做的,非常可愛的小鴨
09:25
But I wonder to myself,
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但我進一步想
09:27
for those people that strap bombs to their chests
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對那些把炸彈綁在胸前
09:34
and blow themselves up,
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把自己炸死的炸彈客
09:35
how might they use 3D printers?
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他們會怎麼運用這些3D列表機
09:38
Perhaps like this.
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也許做這玩意
09:43
You see, if you can print in metal,
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看吧,只要能用金屬原料
09:45
you can print one of these,
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你就可以印出這個
09:48
and in fact
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其實
09:54
you can also print one of these too.
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你也可以印出這個東西
10:00
The UK I know has some very strict firearms laws.
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英國的槍械管制法很嚴密
10:05
You needn't bring the gun into the UK anymore.
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你不需要帶枝槍到英國
10:07
You just bring the 3D printer
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只要帶3D列印機
10:09
and print the gun while you're here,
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在英國當地印製即可
10:11
and, of course, the magazines for your bullets.
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當然,也可以印製彈匣
10:15
But as these get bigger in the future,
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將來,這些裝置越來越大
10:16
what other items will you be able to print?
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他們可能會印製些什麼?
10:18
The technologies are allowing bigger printers.
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科技發展讓3D列印機越來越大
10:22
As we move forward,
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我們還在進步
10:23
we'll see new technologies also, like the Internet of Things.
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一直會有更新的科技,就像在網路上的發展
10:26
Every day we're connecting more and more of our lives
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每天都有新東西讓
10:28
to the Internet, which means
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我們的生活和網際網路連結更緊密
10:30
that the Internet of Things will soon be
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這也就是說,這些網際網路的發明
10:34
the Internet of Things To Be Hacked.
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很快也會被「駭」
10:36
All of the physical objects in our space
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我們生活周遭的具體事物
10:38
are being transformed into information technologies,
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都被轉化成為資訊科技
10:41
and that has a radical implication for our security,
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這對我們的安全有非常不同的意涵
10:45
because more connections to more devices
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因為我們連結的東西越多
10:48
means more vulnerabilities.
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代表越多的弱點
10:50
Criminals understand this.
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罪犯們懂
10:52
Terrorists understand this. Hackers understand this.
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恐怖主義份子懂。駭客也懂
10:54
If you control the code, you control the world.
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只要控制程式,你就控制世界
10:57
This is the future that awaits us.
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這是我們的將來
11:02
There has not yet been an operating system
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任何科技,任何作業系統
11:05
or a technology that hasn't been hacked.
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沒有不被「駭」過的
11:07
That's troubling, since the human body itself
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這讓人煩惱,因為人的身體
11:10
is now becoming an information technology.
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也變成了資訊科技
11:13
As we've seen here, we're transforming ourselves into cyborgs.
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就像這裡顯示的,我們把自己一步一步變成了生化機器人
11:17
Every year, thousands of cochlear implants,
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每年都有數以千計的人把內耳助聽器
11:19
diabetic pumps, pacemakers
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胰島素幫浦,心律調整器
11:21
and defibrillators are being implanted in people.
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以及心律復甦電擊器,植入身體
11:24
In the United States, there are 60,000 people
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在美國,有6萬人裝有和網路相連的
11:26
who have a pacemaker that connects to the Internet.
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心律調整器
11:29
The defibrillators allow a physician at a distance
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必要時,醫生可以在遠端
11:32
to give a shock to a heart
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用這些電擊復甦器
11:34
in case a patient needs it.
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電擊人們的心臟
11:37
But if you don't need it,
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但假如你不需要電擊
11:39
and somebody else gives you the shock,
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但有人卻故意電擊你呢?
11:40
it's not a good thing.
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這可不妙
11:44
Of course, we're going to go even deeper than the human body.
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當然,我們越來越深入人體
11:47
We're going down to the cellular level these days.
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最近,我們還進到了人體細胞的層次
11:50
Up until this point, all the technologies
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一直到現在為止,我討論的
11:52
I've been talking about have been silicon-based, ones and zeroes,
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都是有關電子科技,0與1
11:56
but there's another operating system out there:
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但還有另一種作業系統
11:58
the original operating system, DNA.
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人類原來的作業系統,DNA
12:03
And to hackers, DNA is just another operating system
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對駭客而言,DNA只是另一個作業系統
12:08
waiting to be hacked.
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等著他們「駭」
12:10
It's a great challenge for them.
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對他們是不小的挑戰
12:11
There are people already working on hacking the software of life,
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已經有人在研究如何「駭」入生命的程式
12:14
and while most of them are doing this to great good
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雖然大部分的研究都是為了人類好
12:17
and to help us all,
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幫助全人類
12:19
some won't be.
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3536
但有些可不
12:22
So how will criminals abuse this?
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那罪犯們會如何濫用這些?
12:24
Well, with synthetic biology you can do some pretty neat things.
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用合成生物方法,可以做出相當厲害的的東西
12:26
For example, I predict that we will move away
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3196
舉例來說,我預測我們將不再依賴
12:29
from a plant-based narcotics world
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以植物做出的麻醉藥品
12:32
to a synthetic one. Why do you need the plants anymore?
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而改用人工合成。那你還需要植物幹啥?
12:36
You can just take the DNA code from marijuana
264
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你只要把大麻的DNA序列
12:39
or poppies or coca leaves
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或罌粟花,可可葉的DNA
12:43
and cut and past that gene
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只要複製這些基因
12:46
and put it into yeast,
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放到酵母裡
12:48
and you can take those yeast
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你就可以用這些酵母
12:50
and make them make the cocaine for you,
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做出古柯鹼
12:53
or the marijuana, or any other drug.
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大麻,或其他毒品
12:57
So how we use yeast in the future
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所以,將來人們如何使用酵母
12:59
is going to be really interesting.
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會非常有趣
13:01
In fact, we may have some really interesting bread and beer
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其實,我們已有些很不一樣的麵包,啤酒
13:03
as we go into this next century.
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3823
當我們步入21世紀
13:07
The cost of sequencing the human genome is dropping precipitously.
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3998
人類基因排序的成本大幅滑落
13:11
It was proceeding at Moore's Law pace,
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過去進展的速度和半導體業的摩爾定律預測的一樣快
13:13
but then in 2008, something changed.
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但在2008,發生了改變
13:15
The technologies got better,
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科技變的更好
13:17
and now DNA sequencing is proceeding at a pace
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現在DNA排序解讀的速度
13:21
five times that of Moore's Law.
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正以摩爾定律的五倍速度進行
13:24
That has significant implications for us.
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這對我們有很重要的影響
13:28
It took us 30 years to get from
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自個人電腦發明
13:30
the introduction of the personal computer
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到今天的網路犯罪
13:32
to the level of cybercrime we have today,
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走了30年
13:35
but looking at how biology is proceeding so rapidly,
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但生物科技進展這麼快速
13:38
and knowing criminals and terrorists as I do,
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根據我對罪犯及恐怖份子的了解
13:40
we may get there a lot faster
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我們走到將來生物犯罪
13:43
with biocrime in the future.
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的速度要快的多
13:45
It will be easy for anybody to go ahead
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將來任何人都可以
13:47
and print their own bio-virus,
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隨意製造他們發明的生物病毒
13:49
enhanced versions of ebola or anthrax,
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更進階的依波拉病毒,炭疽病毒
13:51
weaponized flu.
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把流感變成武器
13:53
We recently saw a case where some researchers
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最近,我們也看到有研究人員
13:56
made the H5N1 avian influenza virus more potent.
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合成了更有殺傷力的H5N1的禽流感病毒
14:01
It already has a 70 percent mortality rate
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可以造成7成的死亡率
14:04
if you get it, but it's hard to get.
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只要你能拿到。當然,這不容易拿到。
14:06
Engineers, by moving around a small number
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工程師只要小規模地
14:09
of genetic changes,
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操弄改變基因
14:10
were able to weaponize it
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就可以把它們變成武器
14:12
and make it much more easy for human beings to catch,
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讓這些病毒更容易為人感染
14:15
so that not thousands of people would die,
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這樣就不只是幾千人的傷亡
14:18
but tens of millions.
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而是幾千萬人的傷亡了
14:19
You see, you can go ahead and create
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所以,你可以製造新的瘟疫
14:22
new pandemics, and the researchers who did this
304
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1981
這些研究人員
14:24
were so proud of their accomplishments,
305
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對他們的成就感到很驕傲
14:25
they wanted to publish it openly
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他們想要把他們的研究公開
14:27
so that everybody could see this
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讓大眾都可以看到
14:29
and get access to this information.
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4144
也可以接觸這些研究資料
14:33
But it goes deeper than that.
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但現在已經又更進一步了
14:35
DNA researcher Andrew Hessel
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研究DNA的專家,安得魯 黑賽爾
14:37
has pointed out quite rightly
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也很有理由地指出了
14:39
that if you can use cancer treatments,
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只要能以治療癌症的方法
14:41
modern cancer treatments,
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現代癌症治療方法
14:42
to go after one cell while leaving all the other cells
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只針對特定細胞,而不影響這細胞
14:45
around it intact,
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周邊的其他細胞
14:47
then you can also go after any one person's cell.
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當然你也可以針對任何特定人士的細胞
14:51
Personalized cancer treatments
317
891227
1978
讓癌症治療「個人化」
14:53
are the flip side of personalized bioweapons,
318
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2614
是「個人化的生化武器」的對立面
14:55
which means you can attack any one individual,
319
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意味你可以攻擊任意個人
14:59
including all the people in this picture.
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包括這相片中的每一個人
15:03
How will we protect them in the future?
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你在未來要怎麼保護顯要人物?
15:07
What to do? What to do about all this?
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怎麼辦呀?該怎麼辦?
15:10
That's what I get asked all the time.
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一直都有人問我這個問題
15:12
For those of you who follow me on Twitter,
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1587
假如你有用推特
15:14
I will be tweeting out the answer later on today. (Laughter)
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4530
我今天稍晚會把答案發在推特上。 (笑聲)
15:18
Actually, it's a bit more complex than that,
326
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其實,這也沒那麼簡單
15:21
and there are no magic bullets.
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也沒有特效藥
15:23
I don't have all the answers,
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1712
我不是萬事通,對所有事情都有解
15:25
but I know a few things.
329
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1664
但我知道
15:27
In the wake of 9/11,
330
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9/11發生後
15:29
the best security minds
331
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2790
最棒的維安專家
15:32
put together all their innovation
332
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1984
把他們所想到的創意兜在一起
15:34
and this is what they created for security.
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搞出了這種維安系統
15:38
If you're expecting the people who built this to protect you
334
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假如你想靠弄出這套系統的這些「專家」保護你
15:42
from the coming robopocalypse — (Laughter)
335
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3716
來逃過未來「機器人滅亡人類」的慘劇 -- (笑聲)
15:46
— uh, you may want to have a backup plan. (Laughter)
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2952
-- 嗯,你或許該準備個逃命備案 (笑聲)
15:49
Just saying. Just think about that. (Applause)
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我只是說說罷了。你們可以想想。 (掌聲)
15:55
Law enforcement is currently a closed system.
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執法機關目前還是封閉體系
15:58
It's nation-based, while the threat is international.
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以國家為單位,但安全的威脅是全球性的
16:01
Policing doesn't scale globally. At least, it hasn't,
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3948
警察運作沒全球化,至少,目前還沒有。
16:05
and our current system of guns, border guards, big gates and fences
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既有體系中的武器,巡邊員,關卡,以及藩籬
16:09
are outdated in the new world into which we're moving.
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在我們即將進入的新世界中都落伍了
16:12
So how might we prepare for some of these specific threats,
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那我們該如何應付這些威脅?
16:14
like attacking a president or a prime minister?
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像是針對單一總統,首相的攻擊?
16:17
This would be the natural government response,
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政府的自然反應會把
16:19
to hide away all our government leaders
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2277
所有的政府領袖全藏起來
16:21
in hermetically sealed bubbles.
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1811
藏在封閉的與世隔離的泡泡中
16:23
But this is not going to work.
348
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1832
但這沒用
16:25
The cost of doing a DNA sequence is going to be trivial.
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DNA序列解碼的成本越來越低
16:28
Anybody will have it and we will all have them in the future.
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任何人都負擔的起DNA序列解碼,每個人未來都有自己的DNA碼
16:31
So maybe there's a more radical way that we can look at this.
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那也許我們可以用更極端的方法來處理這問題
16:35
What happens if we were to take
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1928
假如我們把
16:37
the President's DNA, or a king or queen's,
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3200
總統的 DNA 或哪個國王或女王的DNA,
16:40
and put it out to a group of a few hundred
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2336
提供給幾百個
16:42
trusted researchers so they could
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1896
我們信任的研究人員,讓他們
16:44
study that DNA and do penetration testing against it
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2936
研究,並做之實驗各項攻擊的可能
16:47
as a means of helping our leaders?
357
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2208
作為幫助我們保護領袖的方法,這會怎樣?
16:49
Or what if we sent it out to a few thousand?
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2257
或者,如果我們把DNA發給幾千個研究人員?
16:51
Or, controversially, and not without its risks,
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或許,不管爭議多大,風險多大
16:54
what happens if we just gave it to the whole public?
360
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2859
我們把DNA公布給大眾會怎樣?
16:57
Then we could all be engaged in helping.
361
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那我們都可以動手幫忙囉
17:01
We've already seen examples of this working well.
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2616
這樣作,很成功的例子也有
17:03
The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project
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「組織犯罪及貪腐報告計畫」
17:06
is staffed by journalists and citizens
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成員包括記者和公民
17:08
where they are crowd-sourcing
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他們藉由群眾提供的情報
17:09
what dictators and terrorists are doing
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揭露全球獨裁者和恐怖份子
17:12
with public funds around the world,
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如何濫用公共資金
17:14
and, in a more dramatic case,
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有一個更具戲劇性的例子,
17:15
we've seen in Mexico,
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墨西哥在過去6年間
17:18
a country that has been racked
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受五萬件和毒品
17:19
by 50,000 narcotics-related murders
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有關的謀殺案
17:23
in the past six years.
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荼毒。
17:25
They're killing so many people
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他們殺死那麼多人
17:27
they can't even afford to bury them all
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甚至來不及把死者好好安葬
17:29
in anything but these unmarked graves
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好多人都被埋在亂葬岡成了無名墓
17:31
like this one outside of Ciudad Juarez.
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就像這些埋在蘇達 華芮茲外的墳場的這些墓
17:34
What can we do about this? The government has proven ineffective.
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我們能做些什麼?連政府都已證明沒用。
17:37
So in Mexico, citizens, at great risk to themselves,
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墨西哥的公民們,冒著極大風險
17:40
are fighting back to build an effective solution.
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展開反擊,建立一個有效的解決方案。
17:44
They're crowd-mapping the activities of the drug dealers.
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他們利用群眾找出毒販們的行蹤
17:48
Whether or not you realize it,
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不管你是否意識到,
17:50
we are at the dawn of a technological arms race,
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我們處於了科技軍備競賽的初期階段
17:54
an arms race between people
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這場軍備競賽的兩方
17:56
who are using technology for good
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一邊想用科技做好事
17:58
and those who are using it for ill.
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一邊則是要用科技行惡
18:00
The threat is serious, and the time to prepare for it is now.
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我們面對嚴重威脅,此時正該戮力準備
18:04
I can assure you that the terrorists and criminals are.
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我向你保證,恐怖分子和罪犯們也正在準備
18:08
My personal belief is that,
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我個人認為
18:10
rather than having a small, elite force
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與其部署為數不多,訓練有素
18:12
of highly trained government agents
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2040
的政府菁英武力
18:14
here to protect us all,
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來保護我們
18:15
we're much better off
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不如
18:17
having average and ordinary citizens
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2079
由我們一般公民
18:19
approaching this problem as a group
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一起來面對處理這個問題
18:22
and seeing what we can do.
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找出我們能做的事
18:23
If we all do our part,
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假如我們都盡一分力
18:24
I think we'll be in a much better space.
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我相信我們的處境會更好
18:26
The tools to change the world
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改變世界的工具
18:28
are in everybody's hands.
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在我們每個人的手上。
18:30
How we use them is not just up to me,
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我們怎麼用這些工具,不是我一個人說了算
18:32
it's up to all of us.
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2482
我們一起說了才算
18:35
This was a technology I would frequently deploy
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這是一個老科技,我當警察時
18:38
as a police officer.
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1921
經常使用
18:39
This technology has become outdated in our current world.
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在當前的世界裡,這項科技已經過時了
18:43
It doesn't scale, it doesn't work globally,
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無法大規模運用,也無法全球運用
18:46
and it surely doesn't work virtually.
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在虛擬世界裡,更是沒用武之地
18:48
We've seen paradigm shifts in crime and terrorism.
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我們已經看到罪犯,恐怖份子改變作案方式
18:51
They call for a shift to a more open form
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我們需要更開放的形式
18:56
and a more participatory form of law enforcement.
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一種大眾都參與的執法方式
19:01
So I invite you to join me.
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所以我邀請你與我攜手合作
19:03
After all, public safety is too important to leave to the professionals.
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5188
畢竟,公共安全太重要了,光由專業人士來扛是不夠的
19:08
Thank you. (Applause)
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謝謝。(掌聲)
19:11
(Applause)
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7881
(掌聲)
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