Marc Goodman: A vision of crimes in the future

217,081 views ・ 2012-07-12

TED


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Prevoditelj: Dino Diminić Recezent: Suzana Baric
00:15
I study the future
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Bavim se proučavanjem budućnosti
00:18
of crime and terrorism,
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kriminala i terorizma
00:22
and frankly, I'm afraid.
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i iskreno, strah me je.
00:25
I'm afraid by what I see.
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Strah me je onoga što vidim.
00:26
I sincerely want to believe
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Najiskrenije želim vjerovati
00:29
that technology can bring us
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da će nam tehnologija donijeti
00:31
the techno-utopia that we've been promised,
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tehnološku utopiju koja nam je obećana,
00:34
but, you see,
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ali, vidite,
00:36
I've spent a career in law enforcement,
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proveo sam cijelu karijeru u policiji
00:39
and that's informed my perspective on things.
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i na tome se temelji moje shvaćanje stvari.
00:42
I've been a street police officer,
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Bio sam prometni policajac,
00:44
an undercover investigator,
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prikriveni istražitelj,
00:46
a counter-terrorism strategist,
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anti-teroristički strateg,
00:48
and I've worked in more than 70 countries
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i radio sam u više od 70 zemalja
00:50
around the world.
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diljem svijeta.
00:51
I've had to see more than my fair share
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Morao sam vidjeti više nego što je potrebno od
00:53
of violence and the darker underbelly of society,
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nasilja i mračne strane društva,
00:56
and that's informed my opinions.
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i to je oblikovalo moje mišljenje.
01:01
My work with criminals and terrorists
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Moj rad s kriminalcima i teroristima
01:02
has actually been highly educational.
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je u biti bio veoma edukativan.
01:05
They have taught me a lot, and I'd like to be able
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Naučili su me mnogočemu i voli bih da mogu
01:07
to share some of these observations with you.
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podijeliti neka od tih opažanja s vama.
01:11
Today I'm going to show you the flip side
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Danas ću vam pokazati drugu stranu medalje
01:13
of all those technologies that we marvel at,
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svih onih tehnologija kojima se divimo,
01:17
the ones that we love.
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koje volimo.
01:19
In the hands of the TED community,
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U rukama TED zajednice,
01:21
these are awesome tools which will bring about
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ovo su nevjerojatni alati koji će dovesti do velikih
01:24
great change for our world,
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promjena u našem svijetu,
01:28
but in the hands of suicide bombers,
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ali u rukama bombaša samoubojica,
01:30
the future can look quite different.
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budućnost može izgledati poprilično drugačije.
01:34
I started observing
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Počeo sam promatrati
01:36
technology and how criminals were using it
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tehnologiju i način na koji je kriminalci upotrebljavaju
01:38
as a young patrol officer.
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kao mladi prometni policajac.
01:40
In those days, this was the height of technology.
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U tim danima, ovo je bio vrhunac tehnologije.
01:44
Laugh though you will,
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Možete se smijati koliko želite,
01:46
all the drug dealers and gang members
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ali svi dileri i članovi bandi
01:47
with whom I dealt had one of these
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s kojima sam imao posla su imali jedan takav
01:49
long before any police officer I knew did.
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davno prije svih policajaca koje sam poznavao.
01:54
Twenty years later, criminals are still using
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Dvadeset godina kasnije, kriminalci i dalje koriste
01:56
mobile phones, but they're also building
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mobilne telefone, ali isto tako grade i
02:00
their own mobile phone networks,
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vlastite mobilne mreže
02:03
like this one, which has been deployed
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poput ove koja je postavljena od strane narko bandi
02:05
in all 31 states of Mexico by the narcos.
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u sve 31 savezne države Meksika.
02:09
They have a national encrypted
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Posjeduju nacionalni kriptirani
02:11
radio communications system.
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radio komunikacijski sustav.
02:14
Think about that.
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Razmislite o tome.
02:16
Think about the innovation that went into that.
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Razmislite o inovacijama koje su korištene u tome.
02:20
Think about the infrastructure to build it.
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Razmislite o potrebnoj infrastrukturi.
02:22
And then think about this:
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A zatim razmislite o sljedećem:
02:24
Why can't I get a cell phone signal in San Francisco? (Laughter)
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Zašto ne mogu dobiti signal na svojem mobitelu u San Franciscu? (Smijeh)
02:28
How is this possible? (Laughter) It makes no sense. (Applause)
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Kako je to moguće? (Smijeh) To nema smisla. (Pljesak)
02:33
We consistently underestimate
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Neprestano podcjenjujemo
02:34
what criminals and terrorists can do.
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sposobnost kriminalaca i terorista.
02:38
Technology has made our world
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Tehnologija je doprinijela da se svijet
02:39
increasingly open, and for the most part,
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neprestano otvara, i većinom
02:41
that's great, but all of this openness
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je to odlično, ali sva ta otvorenost
02:44
may have unintended consequences.
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može imati neplanirane posljedice.
02:46
Consider the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai.
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Razmotrite teroristički napad iz 2008. u Mumbaiju.
02:50
The men that carried that attack out were armed
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Ljudi koji su izveli taj napad bili su naoružani
02:54
with AK-47s, explosives and hand grenades.
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s kalašnjikovima, eksplozivima i ručnim bombama.
02:57
They threw these hand grenades
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Bacali su te ručne bombe
02:59
at innocent people as they sat eating in cafes
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na nedužne ljude koji su sjedili u kafićima
03:02
and waited to catch trains on their way home from work.
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i čekali na vlakove koje će ih odvesti kući s posla.
03:07
But heavy artillery is nothing new in terrorist operations.
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Ali teška artiljerija nije ništo novo u terorističkim operacijama.
03:10
Guns and bombs are nothing new.
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Puške i bombe nisu ništa novo.
03:13
What was different this time
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Ono što je bilo drugačije ovaj put
03:14
is the way that the terrorists used
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jest način na koji su teroristi koristili
03:17
modern information communications technologies
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moderne informacijeske tehnologije
03:19
to locate additional victims and slaughter them.
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kako bi locirali dodatne žrtve i ubili ih.
03:25
They were armed with mobile phones.
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Bili su naoružani mobilnim telefonima.
03:27
They had BlackBerries.
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Imali su BlackBerry-je.
03:29
They had access to satellite imagery.
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Imali su pristup satelitskim snimkama.
03:31
They had satellite phones, and they even had night vision goggles.
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Imali su satelitske telefone i čak su imali i naočale za noćni vid.
03:36
But perhaps their greatest innovation was this.
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Ali možda je njihova najveća inovacija bila ova.
03:39
We've all seen pictures like this
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Svi smo mi vidjeli slike poput ove
03:41
on television and in the news. This is an operations center.
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na televiziji i u vijestima. Ovo je operativni centar.
03:44
And the terrorists built their very own op center
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A teroristi su sagradili vlastiti operativni centar
03:47
across the border in Pakistan,
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preko granice u Pakistanu
03:50
where they monitored the BBC,
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gdje su pratili BBC,
03:51
al Jazeera, CNN and Indian local stations.
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al-Jazeeru, CNN i indijske lokalne stanice.
03:56
They also monitored the Internet and social media
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Također su pratili internet i društvene medije
04:01
to monitor the progress of their attacks
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kako bi pratili napredak svojih napada
04:03
and how many people they had killed.
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i koliko su ljudi ubili.
04:05
They did all of this in real time.
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Sve su to radili u realnom vremenu.
04:09
The innovation of the terrorist operations center
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Inovacija terorističkog operativnog centra
04:12
gave terrorists unparalleled situational awareness
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je pružila teroristima do sada nepoznatu preglednost nad situacijom
04:16
and tactical advantage over the police
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i taktičku prednost nad policijom
04:18
and over the government.
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i vladom.
04:21
What did they do with this?
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Što su oni činili s time?
04:22
They used it to great effect.
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Iskoristili su ga s velikom učinkovitošću.
04:24
At one point during the 60-hour siege,
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U jednom trenutku tijekom 60-satne okupacije,
04:26
the terrorists were going room to room
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teroristi su pretraživali sobu za sobom
04:28
trying to find additional victims.
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pokušavajući pronaći dodatne žrtve.
04:31
They came upon a suite on the top floor
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Došli su do apartmana na posljednjem katu hotela,
04:32
of the hotel, and they kicked down the door
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srušili vrata
04:34
and they found a man hiding by his bed.
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i pronašli čovjeka koji se sakrivao ispod kreveta.
04:37
And they said to him, "Who are you,
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Zatim su ga upitali: "Tko si ti,
04:39
and what are you doing here?"
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i što radiš ovdje?",
04:41
And the man replied,
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na što je čovjek odgovorio:
04:42
"I'm just an innocent schoolteacher."
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"Nedužni sam učitelj."
04:46
Of course, the terrorists knew
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Naravno, teroristi su znali
04:48
that no Indian schoolteacher stays at a suite in the Taj.
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da ni jedan indijski učitelj ne odsjeda u apartmanu u Taj-u.
04:52
They picked up his identification,
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Uzeli su njegovu osobnu iskaznicu,
04:54
and they phoned his name in to the terrorist war room,
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i prenijeli njegovo ime teroristima u zapovjednoj sobi
04:57
where the terrorist war room Googled him,
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gdje su teroristi potražili njegovo ime na Google-u
05:00
and found a picture and called their operatives
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i pronašli njegovu sliku nakon čega su nazvali operativce
05:03
on the ground and said,
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na terenu i rekli:
05:04
"Your hostage, is he heavyset?
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"Vaš zatočenik, je li krupnije građe?
05:08
Is he bald in front? Does he wear glasses?"
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Je li proćelav odsprijeda? Nosi li naočale?"
05:13
"Yes, yes, yes," came the answers.
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"Da, da, da.", stigao je odgovor.
05:18
The op center had found him and they had a match.
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Operativni centar ga je pronašao i otkrio njegov identitet.
05:20
He was not a schoolteacher.
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On nije bio učitelj.
05:21
He was the second-wealthiest businessman in India,
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Bio je drugi najbogatiji poduzetnik u Indiji
05:25
and after discovering this information,
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i nakon što su otkrili te informacije,
05:26
the terrorist war room gave the order
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teroristička zapovjedna soba je izdala zapovijed
05:29
to the terrorists on the ground in Mumbai.
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teroristima na terenu u Mumbaiju.
05:32
("Kill him.")
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("Ubijte ga.")
05:35
We all worry about our privacy settings
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Svi mi se brinemo o postavkama sigurnosti
05:39
on Facebook,
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na Facebook-u,
05:40
but the fact of the matter is,
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ali u stvarnosti
05:43
our openness can be used against us.
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se naša otvorenost može koristiti i protiv nas.
05:46
Terrorists are doing this.
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Teroristi to čine.
05:48
A search engine can determine
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Pretraživač može odrediti
05:52
who shall live and who shall die.
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tko će živjeti a tko će umrijeti.
05:56
This is the world that we live in.
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To je svijet u koje živimo.
05:59
During the Mumbai siege,
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Tijekom okupacije u Mumbaiju,
06:00
terrorists were so dependent on technology
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teroristi su bili toliko ovisni o tehnologiji
06:03
that several witnesses reported that
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da je nekoliko svjedoka posvjedočilo
06:05
as the terrorists were shooting hostages with one hand,
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da su teroristi, dok su jednom rukom pucali na taoce,
06:08
they were checking their mobile phone messages
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drugom slobodnom rukom
06:10
in the very other hand.
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provjeravali poruke na svojim mobitelima.
06:13
In the end, 300 people were gravely wounded
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Naposljetku, 300 ljudi je bilo ozbiljno ozlijeđeno,
06:16
and over 172 men, women and children
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a preko 172 muškaraca, žena i djece
06:20
lost their lives that day.
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je izgubilo život taj dan.
06:24
Think about what happened.
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Razmislite o tome što se dogodilo.
06:26
During this 60-hour siege on Mumbai,
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Tijekom 60-satne okupacije u Mumbaiju,
06:29
10 men armed not just with weapons,
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10 ljudi naoružanih ne samo oružjem,
06:33
but with technology,
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već i tehnologijom,
06:35
were able to bring a city of 20 million people
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uspjelo je dovesti grad s 20 milijuna stanovnika
06:39
to a standstill.
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u zastoj.
06:41
Ten people brought 20 million people
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10 ljudi je dovelo 20 milijuna ljudi
06:43
to a standstill, and this traveled around the world.
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u zastoj, i taj čin je obišao svijet.
06:47
This is what radicals can do with openness.
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To je ono što radikali mogu učiniti s otvorenošću.
06:53
This was done nearly four years ago.
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To se dogodilo prije gotovo četiri godine.
06:56
What could terrorists do today
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Što bi teroristi mogli napraviti danas
06:58
with the technologies available that we have?
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s tehnologijom koja nam je sada dostupna?
07:00
What will they do tomorrow?
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Što će učiniti sutra?
07:04
The ability of one to affect many
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Sposobnost da jedan utječe na mnoge
07:06
is scaling exponentially,
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raste eksponencijalno
07:09
and it's scaling for good and it's scaling for evil.
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i taj se rast odnosi na dobro kao i na zlo.
07:13
It's not just about terrorism, though.
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Iako, nije to samo s terorizmom.
07:15
There's also been a big paradigm shift in crime.
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Dogodio se i veliki pomak u konceptu zločina.
07:17
You see, you can now commit more crime as well.
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Vidite, danas se također može obaviti i veći broj zločina.
07:22
In the old days, it was a knife and a gun.
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U stara vremena, postojao je samo nož i pištolj.
07:24
Then criminals moved to robbing trains.
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Zatim su kriminalci prešli na pljačkanje vlakova.
07:26
You could rob 200 people on a train, a great innovation.
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Mogli ste orobiti 200 ljudi u vlaku, velika inovacija.
07:30
Moving forward, the Internet
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Nadalje, internet je omogućio
07:32
allowed things to scale even more.
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daljnje povećanje mjerila.
07:34
In fact, many of you will remember
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U biti, mnogi od vas će se mogu sjetiti
07:35
the recent Sony PlayStation hack.
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nedavnog hakiranja Sony PlayStationa.
07:37
In that incident, over 100 million people were robbed.
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U tom incidentu, pokradeno je više od 100 milijuna ljudi.
07:44
Think about that.
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Razmislite o tome.
07:45
When in the history of humanity
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Kada je u ljudskoj povijesti
07:47
has it ever been possible for one person
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bilo moguće da jedna osoba
07:49
to rob 100 million?
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opljačka 100 milijuna ljudi?
07:54
Of course, it's not just about stealing things.
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Naravno, nije sve u krađama predmeta.
07:56
There are other avenues of technology
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Postoje razne grane tehnologije
07:59
that criminals can exploit.
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koje kriminalci mogu iskoristiti.
08:00
Many of you will remember this super cute video
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Mnogi od vas će se prisjetiti dražesnog videa
08:03
from the last TED,
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sa zadnjeg TED-a,
08:06
but not all quadcopter swarms are so nice and cute.
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ali nisu svi rojevi kvadrikoptera tako dražesni i dobri.
08:11
They don't all have drumsticks.
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Nemaju svi palice za bubnjeve.
08:13
Some can be armed with HD cameras
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Neki mogu biti naoružani HD kamerama
08:15
and do countersurveillance on protesters,
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i sprječavati nadzor nad prosvjednicima,
08:17
or, as in this little bit of movie magic,
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ili, kao u ovom djeliću filmske čarolije,
08:20
quadcopters can be loaded with firearms
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kvadrikopteri mogu biti opremljeni vatrenim oružjem
08:24
and automatic weapons.
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i automatskim puškama.
08:27
Little robots are cute when they play music to you.
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Mali roboti su dražesni kada vam sviraju glazbu.
08:30
When they swarm and chase you down the block
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Kada se grupiraju u rojeve i love vas ulicom
08:33
to shoot you, a little bit less so.
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da bi vas upucali, ipak su malo manje dražesni.
08:37
Of course, criminals and terrorists weren't the first
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Naravno, kriminalci i teroristi nisu bili prvi
08:39
to give guns to robots. We know where that started.
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koji su dali oružje robotima. Svi znamo gdje je to počelo.
08:41
But they're adapting quickly.
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Ali prilagođavaju se brzo.
08:43
Recently, the FBI arrested
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Nedavno je FBI uhitio
08:45
an al Qaeda affiliate in the United States,
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osobu povezanu s al Qaeda-om u SAD-u,
08:47
who was planning on using these remote-controlled
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koja je planirala koristiti ove bespilotne letjelice
08:48
drone aircraft to fly C4 explosives
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na daljinsko upravljanje kako bi prenio C4 eksploziv
08:51
into government buildings in the United States.
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na vladine zgrade u SAD-u.
08:54
By the way, these travel at over 600 miles an hour.
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Usput, ove mogu letjeti brzinama od preko 960 km/h.
08:59
Every time a new technology is being introduced,
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Svaki put kad se uvodi nova tehnologija,
09:02
criminals are there to exploit it.
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kriminalci su tu da je iskoriste.
09:04
We've all seen 3D printers.
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Svi smo vidjeli 3D printere.
09:06
We know with them that you can print
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Znamo da za printanje mogu koristiti
09:07
in many materials ranging from plastic
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različite materijale od plastike
09:10
to chocolate to metal and even concrete.
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pa sve do čokolade i metala pa čak i betona.
09:14
With great precision
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S velikom sam preciznošću
09:16
I actually was able to make this
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zapravo uspio nekidan napraviti ovu
09:18
just the other day, a very cute little ducky.
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veoma dražesnu patkicu.
09:25
But I wonder to myself,
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Ali zapitao sam se
09:27
for those people that strap bombs to their chests
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kako bi ljudi koji postavljaju bombe na sebe
09:34
and blow themselves up,
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i dižu se u zrak,
09:35
how might they use 3D printers?
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mogli iskoristiti 3D printere.
09:38
Perhaps like this.
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Možda na ovaj način.
09:43
You see, if you can print in metal,
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Vidite, ukoliko možete printati metal,
09:45
you can print one of these,
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možete isprintati jedan ovakav
09:48
and in fact
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i, u biti,
09:54
you can also print one of these too.
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možete isprintati i jedan ovakav.
10:00
The UK I know has some very strict firearms laws.
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Velika Britanija kakvu poznajem ima neke veoma striktne zakone u vezi vatrenog oružja.
10:05
You needn't bring the gun into the UK anymore.
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Više ne moraš unijeti oružje u Veliku Britaniju.
10:07
You just bring the 3D printer
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Samo doneseš 3D printer
10:09
and print the gun while you're here,
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i isprintaš si pištolj dok si ondje
10:11
and, of course, the magazines for your bullets.
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i, naravno, spremnik za metke.
10:15
But as these get bigger in the future,
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Ali kako će se povećavati njihova veličina s vremenom,
10:16
what other items will you be able to print?
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koje će se sve stvari moći printati?
10:18
The technologies are allowing bigger printers.
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Tehnologije omogućavaju veće printere.
10:22
As we move forward,
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I kako idemo naprijed,
10:23
we'll see new technologies also, like the Internet of Things.
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vidjet ćemo i nove stvari, poput Interneta za stvari.
10:26
Every day we're connecting more and more of our lives
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Svakodnevno povezujemo život sve više i više
10:28
to the Internet, which means
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s internetom, što znači
10:30
that the Internet of Things will soon be
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da će Internet stvari uskoro biti
10:34
the Internet of Things To Be Hacked.
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internet stvari za hakiranje.
10:36
All of the physical objects in our space
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Svi fizički objekti u našem prostoru
10:38
are being transformed into information technologies,
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se transformiraju u informacijske tehnologije,
10:41
and that has a radical implication for our security,
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i to predstavlja radikalne implikacije za našu sigurnost,
10:45
because more connections to more devices
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zato što veći broj veza prema uređajima
10:48
means more vulnerabilities.
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označava i veću ranjivost.
10:50
Criminals understand this.
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Kriminalci to razumiju.
10:52
Terrorists understand this. Hackers understand this.
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Teroristi to razumiju. Hakeri to razumiju.
10:54
If you control the code, you control the world.
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Ukoliko kontroliraš kod, kontroliraš i svijet.
10:57
This is the future that awaits us.
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To je budućnost koja nas čeka.
11:02
There has not yet been an operating system
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Do sada nije postojao operativni sustav
11:05
or a technology that hasn't been hacked.
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ili tehnologija koja nije bila hakirana.
11:07
That's troubling, since the human body itself
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To je zabrinjavajuće zato što samo ljudsko tijelo
11:10
is now becoming an information technology.
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danas postaje informacijskom tehnologijom.
11:13
As we've seen here, we're transforming ourselves into cyborgs.
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Kao što smo vidjeli, mi transformiramo naša tijela u kiborge.
11:17
Every year, thousands of cochlear implants,
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Svake godine, tisuće umjetnih pužnica,
11:19
diabetic pumps, pacemakers
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dijabetičkih pumpi, pacemakera
11:21
and defibrillators are being implanted in people.
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i defibrilatora se implantira u ljude.
11:24
In the United States, there are 60,000 people
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U SAD-u 60,000 ljudi
11:26
who have a pacemaker that connects to the Internet.
239
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ima pacemakere koji se spajaju na internet.
11:29
The defibrillators allow a physician at a distance
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Defibrilatori omogućuju doktorima da na daljinu
11:32
to give a shock to a heart
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daju impuls srcu
11:34
in case a patient needs it.
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ukoliko je to pacijentu potrebno.
11:37
But if you don't need it,
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Ali ako ne trebate impuls,
11:39
and somebody else gives you the shock,
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a netko drugi vam ga da,
11:40
it's not a good thing.
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3391
to nije dobra stvar.
11:44
Of course, we're going to go even deeper than the human body.
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Naravno, ići ćemo i dalje od ljudskog tijela.
11:47
We're going down to the cellular level these days.
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Ovih dana ćemo dostići i razinu stanica.
11:50
Up until this point, all the technologies
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Sve do ovog trena, sve tehnologije
11:52
I've been talking about have been silicon-based, ones and zeroes,
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o kojima sam pričao su bazirane na siliciju, jedinicama i nulama,
11:56
but there's another operating system out there:
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ali postoji i jedan drugi operativni sustav:
11:58
the original operating system, DNA.
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originalni operativni sustav, DNK.
12:03
And to hackers, DNA is just another operating system
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A hakerima je DNK samo još jedan operativni sustav
12:08
waiting to be hacked.
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1999
koji čeka da bude hakiran.
12:10
It's a great challenge for them.
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To im predstavlja veliki izazov.
12:11
There are people already working on hacking the software of life,
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Već postoje ljudi koji rade na hakiranju programa života,
12:14
and while most of them are doing this to great good
256
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2957
i dok većina to radi za opće dobro,
12:17
and to help us all,
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1401
i kako bi svima nama pomogli,
12:19
some won't be.
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neki neće raditi za taj cilj.
12:22
So how will criminals abuse this?
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Kako će onda kriminalci zlouporabiti to?
12:24
Well, with synthetic biology you can do some pretty neat things.
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Pa, sa sintetičkom biologijom mogu se raditi poprilično zgodne stvari.
12:26
For example, I predict that we will move away
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3196
Naprimjer, predviđam da ćemo se udaljiti
12:29
from a plant-based narcotics world
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od narkotika baziranih na biljkama
12:32
to a synthetic one. Why do you need the plants anymore?
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prema sintetičkima. Zašto nam uopće i treba više biljka?
12:36
You can just take the DNA code from marijuana
264
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Možemo jednostavno uzeti DNK marihuane,
12:39
or poppies or coca leaves
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maka ili lišća od koke
12:43
and cut and past that gene
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i kopirati te prenijeti taj gen
12:46
and put it into yeast,
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u kvasac,
12:48
and you can take those yeast
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1402
koji ćemo zatim iskoristiti
12:50
and make them make the cocaine for you,
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da radi kokain za nas,
12:53
or the marijuana, or any other drug.
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ili marihuanu, ili bilo koju drugu drogu.
12:57
So how we use yeast in the future
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Načini na koji ćemo koristiti kvasac u budućnosti
12:59
is going to be really interesting.
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bit će zbilja zanimljivi.
13:01
In fact, we may have some really interesting bread and beer
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U biti, možda ćemo imati stvarno zanimljiv kruh i pivo
13:03
as we go into this next century.
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kada budemo kročili kroz sljedeće stoljeće.
13:07
The cost of sequencing the human genome is dropping precipitously.
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3998
Cijena sekvenciranja ljudskog genoma se strahovito smanjuje.
13:11
It was proceeding at Moore's Law pace,
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Nekoć je pratila krivulju Moorovog zakona,
13:13
but then in 2008, something changed.
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1966
ali se onda u 2008. nešto promjenilo.
13:15
The technologies got better,
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Tehnologije su se poboljšale
13:17
and now DNA sequencing is proceeding at a pace
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i sada se sekvenciranje DNK vrši po krivulji
13:21
five times that of Moore's Law.
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pet puta bržoj od one od Moorovog zakona.
13:24
That has significant implications for us.
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To ima važne implikacije za nas.
13:28
It took us 30 years to get from
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Trebalo je proći 30 godina
13:30
the introduction of the personal computer
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2156
od uvođenja osobnog kompjutera
13:32
to the level of cybercrime we have today,
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do razine cyber kriminala koji imamo danas,
13:35
but looking at how biology is proceeding so rapidly,
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ali pogledajte kako se brzo biologija razvija,
13:38
and knowing criminals and terrorists as I do,
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a poznavajući kriminalce i teroriste kako ih ja poznajem,
13:40
we may get there a lot faster
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mogli bismo se susresti puno brže
13:43
with biocrime in the future.
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s bio-kriminalom u budućnosti.
13:45
It will be easy for anybody to go ahead
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Za svakogaće biti lakše
13:47
and print their own bio-virus,
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1880
isprintati svoji bio-virus,
13:49
enhanced versions of ebola or anthrax,
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2762
poboljšanu verziju ebole ili antraksa,
13:51
weaponized flu.
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gripe kao biološkog oružja.
13:53
We recently saw a case where some researchers
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Nedavno smo svjedočili slučaju gdje su neki istraživaći
13:56
made the H5N1 avian influenza virus more potent.
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pojačali virus ptičje gripe H5N1.
14:01
It already has a 70 percent mortality rate
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Već sada ima stopu smrtnosti od 70%,
14:04
if you get it, but it's hard to get.
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ako se zarazite, ali teško se zaraziti.
14:06
Engineers, by moving around a small number
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Inžinjeri su, radeći male preinake
14:09
of genetic changes,
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u genetskom kodu,
14:10
were able to weaponize it
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mogli napraviti oružje od njega
14:12
and make it much more easy for human beings to catch,
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na način da se ljudi puno lakše zaraze njime,
14:15
so that not thousands of people would die,
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tako da ne bi doveo do smrti tisuće ljudi,
14:18
but tens of millions.
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već desetaka milijuna.
14:19
You see, you can go ahead and create
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Vidite, možete stvoriti
14:22
new pandemics, and the researchers who did this
304
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1981
nove pandemije, i istraživači koji su ovo učinili
14:24
were so proud of their accomplishments,
305
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1512
bili su jako ponosni na svoja postignuća,
14:25
they wanted to publish it openly
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1889
željeli su to objaviti javno
14:27
so that everybody could see this
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2103
tako da svi to mogu mogu vidjeti
14:29
and get access to this information.
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i dobiti informacije o tome.
14:33
But it goes deeper than that.
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Ali ide i dublje od toga.
14:35
DNA researcher Andrew Hessel
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1942
DNK istraživač Andrew Hessel
14:37
has pointed out quite rightly
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1397
je s pravom skrenuo pozornost
14:39
that if you can use cancer treatments,
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2283
na činjenicu da ukoliko se može koristiti liječenje raka,
14:41
modern cancer treatments,
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moderno liječenje raka,
14:42
to go after one cell while leaving all the other cells
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2949
gdje se napadaju stanice raka ne dirajući sve
14:45
around it intact,
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1656
ostale okolne stanice,
14:47
then you can also go after any one person's cell.
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4144
tada se mogu ciljati i samo stanice određene osobe.
14:51
Personalized cancer treatments
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1978
Personalizirajuće liječenje raka
14:53
are the flip side of personalized bioweapons,
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2614
je samo druga strana medalje personalizirajućih biooružja,
14:55
which means you can attack any one individual,
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3386
što znači da se može napasti bilo koja osoba,
14:59
including all the people in this picture.
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uključujući sve osobe s ove slike.
15:03
How will we protect them in the future?
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4128
Kako ćemo ih obraniti u budućnosti?
15:07
What to do? What to do about all this?
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Što učiniti? Što učiniti oko svega ovoga?
15:10
That's what I get asked all the time.
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Takva pitanja mi stalno postavljaju.
15:12
For those of you who follow me on Twitter,
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1587
Za one koji me prate na Twitteru,
15:14
I will be tweeting out the answer later on today. (Laughter)
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4530
postavit ću odgovor kasnije popodne. (Smijeh)
15:18
Actually, it's a bit more complex than that,
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2635
U biti, stvar je malo kompleksnija od toga
15:21
and there are no magic bullets.
327
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2079
i ne postoji čarobni napitak.
15:23
I don't have all the answers,
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1712
Ne posjedujem sve odgovore,
15:25
but I know a few things.
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ali znam nekoliko stvari.
15:27
In the wake of 9/11,
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2697
Odmah nakon 11. rujna,
15:29
the best security minds
331
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2790
najbolji sigurnosni mozgovi,
15:32
put together all their innovation
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1984
sakupili su sve svoje inovacije
15:34
and this is what they created for security.
333
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4139
i ovo je ono što su stvorili za sigurnost.
15:38
If you're expecting the people who built this to protect you
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4021
Ukoliko očekuješ da će te ljudi koji su stvorili ovo
15:42
from the coming robopocalypse — (Laughter)
335
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3716
obraniti od nadolazeće roboapokalipse - (Smijeh)
15:46
— uh, you may want to have a backup plan. (Laughter)
336
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2952
- bolje ti je da imaš rezervni plan. (Smijeh)
15:49
Just saying. Just think about that. (Applause)
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6199
Samo kažem. Razmislite o tome. (Pljesak)
15:55
Law enforcement is currently a closed system.
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2919
Provođenje zakona je trenutno zatvoreni sustav.
15:58
It's nation-based, while the threat is international.
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2802
Nacionalno je baziran, dok je prijetnja internacionalna.
16:01
Policing doesn't scale globally. At least, it hasn't,
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Policija ne djeluje globalno. Barem nije do sada,
16:05
and our current system of guns, border guards, big gates and fences
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4283
i trenutni sustavi oružja, granične kontrole, velikih vrata i ograda
16:09
are outdated in the new world into which we're moving.
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su zastarjeli u odnosu na svijet prema kojemu se krećemo.
16:12
So how might we prepare for some of these specific threats,
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Kako se možemo pripremiti na neke od ovih specifičnih prijetnji,
16:14
like attacking a president or a prime minister?
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2423
poput napada na predsjednika ili premijera?
16:17
This would be the natural government response,
345
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2137
Ovo bi bila normalna reakcija vlade,
16:19
to hide away all our government leaders
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2277
sakriti negdje sve vladine vođe
16:21
in hermetically sealed bubbles.
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1811
u hermetički zatvorene balone.
16:23
But this is not going to work.
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1832
Ali to neće funkcionirati.
16:25
The cost of doing a DNA sequence is going to be trivial.
349
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3136
Trošak sekvenciranja DNK će biti trivijalan.
16:28
Anybody will have it and we will all have them in the future.
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Svi će ga raditi i svi ćemo ga imati u budućnosti.
16:31
So maybe there's a more radical way that we can look at this.
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Dakle, možda postoji radikalniji pristup kako gledati na sve to.
16:35
What happens if we were to take
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1928
Što bi se dogodilo kada bismo uzeli
16:37
the President's DNA, or a king or queen's,
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3200
DNK predsjednika, ili kralja ili kraljice,
16:40
and put it out to a group of a few hundred
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2336
i dali ga na raspolaganje grupi od nekoliko stotina
16:42
trusted researchers so they could
355
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1896
istraživača od povjerenja kako bi ga mogli
16:44
study that DNA and do penetration testing against it
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2936
istražiti i izvršiti testiranja na njemu
16:47
as a means of helping our leaders?
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kao pomoć našim vođama?
16:49
Or what if we sent it out to a few thousand?
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2257
A što da ga damo tisućama?
16:51
Or, controversially, and not without its risks,
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Ili, kontroverznije, i ne bez rizika,
16:54
what happens if we just gave it to the whole public?
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što bi se dogodilo kada bismo ga dali cijeloj javnosti?
16:57
Then we could all be engaged in helping.
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Tada bismo svi bili uključeni u pomaganje.
17:01
We've already seen examples of this working well.
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Već smo vidjeli primjere kada je to funkcioniralo.
17:03
The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project
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Projekt za izvještavanje o organiziranom kriminalu i korupciji,
17:06
is staffed by journalists and citizens
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1672
na kojemu rade novinari i građani
17:08
where they are crowd-sourcing
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koji dobivaju podatke od velikih grupa ljudi
17:09
what dictators and terrorists are doing
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o tome što diktatori i teroristi rade
17:12
with public funds around the world,
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1682
s javnim sredstvima diljem svijeta.
17:14
and, in a more dramatic case,
368
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Dramatičniji slučaj
17:15
we've seen in Mexico,
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2304
vidjeli smo u Meksiku,
17:18
a country that has been racked
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1624
zemlji koja je izmučena
17:19
by 50,000 narcotics-related murders
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4013
od 50,000 ubojstava povezanim s narkoticima
17:23
in the past six years.
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u posljednjih šest godina.
17:25
They're killing so many people
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Ubijaju toliko ljudi
17:27
they can't even afford to bury them all
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da si ne mogu ni priuštiti da ih sve sahrane
17:29
in anything but these unmarked graves
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u bilo čemu osim u neobilježenim grobovima
17:31
like this one outside of Ciudad Juarez.
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kao što su ovi izvan Ciudad Juareza.
17:34
What can we do about this? The government has proven ineffective.
377
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Što možemo napraviti u vezi toga? Vlada se pokazala neučinkovitom.
17:37
So in Mexico, citizens, at great risk to themselves,
378
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3137
Tako u Meksiku, građani, stavljajući sebe u veliki rizik,
17:40
are fighting back to build an effective solution.
379
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uzvraćaju udarac kako bi izgradili efektivno rješenje.
17:44
They're crowd-mapping the activities of the drug dealers.
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Grupno mapiraju aktivnosti dilera drogom.
17:48
Whether or not you realize it,
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1792
Shvaćate li vi to ili ne,
17:50
we are at the dawn of a technological arms race,
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nalazimo se u praskozorju utrke za tehnološkim naoružanjem,
17:54
an arms race between people
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utrke u naoružanju između ljudi
17:56
who are using technology for good
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koji koriste tehnologiju za dobro
17:58
and those who are using it for ill.
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i onih koji je koriste za loše.
18:00
The threat is serious, and the time to prepare for it is now.
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Prijetnja je ozbiljna, a vrijeme za pripremu je sad.
18:04
I can assure you that the terrorists and criminals are.
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Mogu vam jamčiti da su teroristi i kriminalci već spremni.
18:08
My personal belief is that,
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Moje osobno mišljenje jest
18:10
rather than having a small, elite force
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1945
da umjesto da imamo malu, elitnu jedinicu
18:12
of highly trained government agents
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2040
visoko istreniranih vladinih agenata
18:14
here to protect us all,
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koji su tu da nam pomognu,
18:15
we're much better off
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bilo bi nam puno bolje
18:17
having average and ordinary citizens
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2079
da imamo prosječne i obične građane
18:19
approaching this problem as a group
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2424
koji pristupaju problemu kao grupa
18:22
and seeing what we can do.
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i vide što mi možemo učiniti.
18:23
If we all do our part,
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Ukoliko svatko od nas radi svoj dio,
18:24
I think we'll be in a much better space.
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vjerujem da ćemose naći na puno boljem mjestu.
18:26
The tools to change the world
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Alati za promjenu svijeta
18:28
are in everybody's hands.
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nalaze se u rukama svih nas.
18:30
How we use them is not just up to me,
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2839
Kako ćemo ih koristiti nije samo do mene,
18:32
it's up to all of us.
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2482
nego do svih nas.
18:35
This was a technology I would frequently deploy
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2633
Ovo je bila tehnologija koju bih često koristio
18:38
as a police officer.
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1921
kao policijski službenik.
18:39
This technology has become outdated in our current world.
404
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3775
Ta tehnologija je postala zastarjela u trenutnom svijetu.
18:43
It doesn't scale, it doesn't work globally,
405
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2712
Ne povećava se, ne djeluje globalno,
18:46
and it surely doesn't work virtually.
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2072
i definitivno ne funkcionira virtualno.
18:48
We've seen paradigm shifts in crime and terrorism.
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3268
Svjedočili smo pomaku u obrascima zločina i terorizma.
18:51
They call for a shift to a more open form
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4347
Oni zovu na promjene prema otvorenijim oblicima
18:56
and a more participatory form of law enforcement.
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i prema participativnijim oblicima policije.
19:01
So I invite you to join me.
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Tako da vas zovem da mi se priključite.
19:03
After all, public safety is too important to leave to the professionals.
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5188
Naposljetku, javna zaštita je previše važna da je se prepusti profesionalcima.
19:08
Thank you. (Applause)
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Hvala Vam. (Pljesak)
19:11
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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