Marc Goodman: A vision of crimes in the future

219,781 views ・ 2012-07-12

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Dino Diminić Recezent: Suzana Baric
00:15
I study the future
0
15539
2823
Bavim se proučavanjem budućnosti
00:18
of crime and terrorism,
1
18362
4285
kriminala i terorizma
00:22
and frankly, I'm afraid.
2
22647
2360
i iskreno, strah me je.
00:25
I'm afraid by what I see.
3
25007
1962
Strah me je onoga što vidim.
00:26
I sincerely want to believe
4
26969
2145
Najiskrenije želim vjerovati
00:29
that technology can bring us
5
29114
2792
da će nam tehnologija donijeti
00:31
the techno-utopia that we've been promised,
6
31906
3057
tehnološku utopiju koja nam je obećana,
00:34
but, you see,
7
34963
1736
ali, vidite,
00:36
I've spent a career in law enforcement,
8
36699
3113
proveo sam cijelu karijeru u policiji
00:39
and that's informed my perspective on things.
9
39812
2773
i na tome se temelji moje shvaćanje stvari.
00:42
I've been a street police officer,
10
42585
1633
Bio sam prometni policajac,
00:44
an undercover investigator,
11
44218
2071
prikriveni istražitelj,
00:46
a counter-terrorism strategist,
12
46289
2008
anti-teroristički strateg,
00:48
and I've worked in more than 70 countries
13
48297
2225
i radio sam u više od 70 zemalja
00:50
around the world.
14
50522
1466
diljem svijeta.
00:51
I've had to see more than my fair share
15
51988
1656
Morao sam vidjeti više nego što je potrebno od
00:53
of violence and the darker underbelly of society,
16
53644
3245
nasilja i mračne strane društva,
00:56
and that's informed my opinions.
17
56889
4461
i to je oblikovalo moje mišljenje.
01:01
My work with criminals and terrorists
18
61350
1587
Moj rad s kriminalcima i teroristima
01:02
has actually been highly educational.
19
62937
2120
je u biti bio veoma edukativan.
01:05
They have taught me a lot, and I'd like to be able
20
65057
2709
Naučili su me mnogočemu i voli bih da mogu
01:07
to share some of these observations with you.
21
67766
3899
podijeliti neka od tih opažanja s vama.
01:11
Today I'm going to show you the flip side
22
71665
2319
Danas ću vam pokazati drugu stranu medalje
01:13
of all those technologies that we marvel at,
23
73984
4015
svih onih tehnologija kojima se divimo,
01:17
the ones that we love.
24
77999
1863
koje volimo.
01:19
In the hands of the TED community,
25
79862
1866
U rukama TED zajednice,
01:21
these are awesome tools which will bring about
26
81728
2913
ovo su nevjerojatni alati koji će dovesti do velikih
01:24
great change for our world,
27
84641
3459
promjena u našem svijetu,
01:28
but in the hands of suicide bombers,
28
88100
2726
ali u rukama bombaša samoubojica,
01:30
the future can look quite different.
29
90826
3436
budućnost može izgledati poprilično drugačije.
01:34
I started observing
30
94262
2153
Počeo sam promatrati
01:36
technology and how criminals were using it
31
96415
1896
tehnologiju i način na koji je kriminalci upotrebljavaju
01:38
as a young patrol officer.
32
98311
1991
kao mladi prometni policajac.
01:40
In those days, this was the height of technology.
33
100302
4456
U tim danima, ovo je bio vrhunac tehnologije.
01:44
Laugh though you will,
34
104758
1569
Možete se smijati koliko želite,
01:46
all the drug dealers and gang members
35
106327
1295
ali svi dileri i članovi bandi
01:47
with whom I dealt had one of these
36
107622
2201
s kojima sam imao posla su imali jedan takav
01:49
long before any police officer I knew did.
37
109823
4291
davno prije svih policajaca koje sam poznavao.
01:54
Twenty years later, criminals are still using
38
114114
2860
Dvadeset godina kasnije, kriminalci i dalje koriste
01:56
mobile phones, but they're also building
39
116974
3883
mobilne telefone, ali isto tako grade i
02:00
their own mobile phone networks,
40
120857
2349
vlastite mobilne mreže
02:03
like this one, which has been deployed
41
123206
2232
poput ove koja je postavljena od strane narko bandi
02:05
in all 31 states of Mexico by the narcos.
42
125438
3800
u sve 31 savezne države Meksika.
02:09
They have a national encrypted
43
129238
2136
Posjeduju nacionalni kriptirani
02:11
radio communications system.
44
131374
3209
radio komunikacijski sustav.
02:14
Think about that.
45
134583
2110
Razmislite o tome.
02:16
Think about the innovation that went into that.
46
136693
3382
Razmislite o inovacijama koje su korištene u tome.
02:20
Think about the infrastructure to build it.
47
140075
2897
Razmislite o potrebnoj infrastrukturi.
02:22
And then think about this:
48
142972
1405
A zatim razmislite o sljedećem:
02:24
Why can't I get a cell phone signal in San Francisco? (Laughter)
49
144377
4050
Zašto ne mogu dobiti signal na svojem mobitelu u San Franciscu? (Smijeh)
02:28
How is this possible? (Laughter) It makes no sense. (Applause)
50
148427
5087
Kako je to moguće? (Smijeh) To nema smisla. (Pljesak)
02:33
We consistently underestimate
51
153514
1358
Neprestano podcjenjujemo
02:34
what criminals and terrorists can do.
52
154872
3304
sposobnost kriminalaca i terorista.
02:38
Technology has made our world
53
158176
1608
Tehnologija je doprinijela da se svijet
02:39
increasingly open, and for the most part,
54
159784
2080
neprestano otvara, i većinom
02:41
that's great, but all of this openness
55
161864
2353
je to odlično, ali sva ta otvorenost
02:44
may have unintended consequences.
56
164217
2045
može imati neplanirane posljedice.
02:46
Consider the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai.
57
166262
4716
Razmotrite teroristički napad iz 2008. u Mumbaiju.
02:50
The men that carried that attack out were armed
58
170978
3158
Ljudi koji su izveli taj napad bili su naoružani
02:54
with AK-47s, explosives and hand grenades.
59
174136
3470
s kalašnjikovima, eksplozivima i ručnim bombama.
02:57
They threw these hand grenades
60
177606
1832
Bacali su te ručne bombe
02:59
at innocent people as they sat eating in cafes
61
179438
3200
na nedužne ljude koji su sjedili u kafićima
03:02
and waited to catch trains on their way home from work.
62
182638
4853
i čekali na vlakove koje će ih odvesti kući s posla.
03:07
But heavy artillery is nothing new in terrorist operations.
63
187491
3353
Ali teška artiljerija nije ništo novo u terorističkim operacijama.
03:10
Guns and bombs are nothing new.
64
190844
2404
Puške i bombe nisu ništa novo.
03:13
What was different this time
65
193248
1236
Ono što je bilo drugačije ovaj put
03:14
is the way that the terrorists used
66
194484
2688
jest način na koji su teroristi koristili
03:17
modern information communications technologies
67
197172
2736
moderne informacijeske tehnologije
03:19
to locate additional victims and slaughter them.
68
199908
5356
kako bi locirali dodatne žrtve i ubili ih.
03:25
They were armed with mobile phones.
69
205264
2213
Bili su naoružani mobilnim telefonima.
03:27
They had BlackBerries.
70
207477
1599
Imali su BlackBerry-je.
03:29
They had access to satellite imagery.
71
209076
2237
Imali su pristup satelitskim snimkama.
03:31
They had satellite phones, and they even had night vision goggles.
72
211313
4965
Imali su satelitske telefone i čak su imali i naočale za noćni vid.
03:36
But perhaps their greatest innovation was this.
73
216278
2987
Ali možda je njihova najveća inovacija bila ova.
03:39
We've all seen pictures like this
74
219265
2088
Svi smo mi vidjeli slike poput ove
03:41
on television and in the news. This is an operations center.
75
221353
3356
na televiziji i u vijestima. Ovo je operativni centar.
03:44
And the terrorists built their very own op center
76
224709
2427
A teroristi su sagradili vlastiti operativni centar
03:47
across the border in Pakistan,
77
227136
3431
preko granice u Pakistanu
03:50
where they monitored the BBC,
78
230567
1281
gdje su pratili BBC,
03:51
al Jazeera, CNN and Indian local stations.
79
231848
4590
al-Jazeeru, CNN i indijske lokalne stanice.
03:56
They also monitored the Internet and social media
80
236438
5028
Također su pratili internet i društvene medije
04:01
to monitor the progress of their attacks
81
241466
2122
kako bi pratili napredak svojih napada
04:03
and how many people they had killed.
82
243588
2370
i koliko su ljudi ubili.
04:05
They did all of this in real time.
83
245958
3068
Sve su to radili u realnom vremenu.
04:09
The innovation of the terrorist operations center
84
249026
3338
Inovacija terorističkog operativnog centra
04:12
gave terrorists unparalleled situational awareness
85
252364
3974
je pružila teroristima do sada nepoznatu preglednost nad situacijom
04:16
and tactical advantage over the police
86
256338
2226
i taktičku prednost nad policijom
04:18
and over the government.
87
258564
2643
i vladom.
04:21
What did they do with this?
88
261207
1265
Što su oni činili s time?
04:22
They used it to great effect.
89
262472
1976
Iskoristili su ga s velikom učinkovitošću.
04:24
At one point during the 60-hour siege,
90
264448
2049
U jednom trenutku tijekom 60-satne okupacije,
04:26
the terrorists were going room to room
91
266497
1663
teroristi su pretraživali sobu za sobom
04:28
trying to find additional victims.
92
268160
3061
pokušavajući pronaći dodatne žrtve.
04:31
They came upon a suite on the top floor
93
271221
1651
Došli su do apartmana na posljednjem katu hotela,
04:32
of the hotel, and they kicked down the door
94
272872
1905
srušili vrata
04:34
and they found a man hiding by his bed.
95
274777
2887
i pronašli čovjeka koji se sakrivao ispod kreveta.
04:37
And they said to him, "Who are you,
96
277664
2027
Zatim su ga upitali: "Tko si ti,
04:39
and what are you doing here?"
97
279691
1389
i što radiš ovdje?",
04:41
And the man replied,
98
281080
1720
na što je čovjek odgovorio:
04:42
"I'm just an innocent schoolteacher."
99
282800
3674
"Nedužni sam učitelj."
04:46
Of course, the terrorists knew
100
286474
2164
Naravno, teroristi su znali
04:48
that no Indian schoolteacher stays at a suite in the Taj.
101
288638
3845
da ni jedan indijski učitelj ne odsjeda u apartmanu u Taj-u.
04:52
They picked up his identification,
102
292483
1592
Uzeli su njegovu osobnu iskaznicu,
04:54
and they phoned his name in to the terrorist war room,
103
294075
3523
i prenijeli njegovo ime teroristima u zapovjednoj sobi
04:57
where the terrorist war room Googled him,
104
297598
2824
gdje su teroristi potražili njegovo ime na Google-u
05:00
and found a picture and called their operatives
105
300422
2641
i pronašli njegovu sliku nakon čega su nazvali operativce
05:03
on the ground and said,
106
303063
1193
na terenu i rekli:
05:04
"Your hostage, is he heavyset?
107
304256
4679
"Vaš zatočenik, je li krupnije građe?
05:08
Is he bald in front? Does he wear glasses?"
108
308935
4478
Je li proćelav odsprijeda? Nosi li naočale?"
05:13
"Yes, yes, yes," came the answers.
109
313413
4606
"Da, da, da.", stigao je odgovor.
05:18
The op center had found him and they had a match.
110
318019
1987
Operativni centar ga je pronašao i otkrio njegov identitet.
05:20
He was not a schoolteacher.
111
320006
1367
On nije bio učitelj.
05:21
He was the second-wealthiest businessman in India,
112
321373
3874
Bio je drugi najbogatiji poduzetnik u Indiji
05:25
and after discovering this information,
113
325247
1645
i nakon što su otkrili te informacije,
05:26
the terrorist war room gave the order
114
326892
3055
teroristička zapovjedna soba je izdala zapovijed
05:29
to the terrorists on the ground in Mumbai.
115
329947
2626
teroristima na terenu u Mumbaiju.
05:32
("Kill him.")
116
332573
3126
("Ubijte ga.")
05:35
We all worry about our privacy settings
117
335699
3441
Svi mi se brinemo o postavkama sigurnosti
05:39
on Facebook,
118
339140
1736
na Facebook-u,
05:40
but the fact of the matter is,
119
340876
2425
ali u stvarnosti
05:43
our openness can be used against us.
120
343301
3462
se naša otvorenost može koristiti i protiv nas.
05:46
Terrorists are doing this.
121
346763
1906
Teroristi to čine.
05:48
A search engine can determine
122
348669
3506
Pretraživač može odrediti
05:52
who shall live and who shall die.
123
352175
3955
tko će živjeti a tko će umrijeti.
05:56
This is the world that we live in.
124
356130
3029
To je svijet u koje živimo.
05:59
During the Mumbai siege,
125
359159
1569
Tijekom okupacije u Mumbaiju,
06:00
terrorists were so dependent on technology
126
360728
2626
teroristi su bili toliko ovisni o tehnologiji
06:03
that several witnesses reported that
127
363354
2246
da je nekoliko svjedoka posvjedočilo
06:05
as the terrorists were shooting hostages with one hand,
128
365600
2879
da su teroristi, dok su jednom rukom pucali na taoce,
06:08
they were checking their mobile phone messages
129
368479
2376
drugom slobodnom rukom
06:10
in the very other hand.
130
370855
2455
provjeravali poruke na svojim mobitelima.
06:13
In the end, 300 people were gravely wounded
131
373310
3150
Naposljetku, 300 ljudi je bilo ozbiljno ozlijeđeno,
06:16
and over 172 men, women and children
132
376460
3905
a preko 172 muškaraca, žena i djece
06:20
lost their lives that day.
133
380365
4351
je izgubilo život taj dan.
06:24
Think about what happened.
134
384716
1765
Razmislite o tome što se dogodilo.
06:26
During this 60-hour siege on Mumbai,
135
386481
3011
Tijekom 60-satne okupacije u Mumbaiju,
06:29
10 men armed not just with weapons,
136
389492
4415
10 ljudi naoružanih ne samo oružjem,
06:33
but with technology,
137
393907
1894
već i tehnologijom,
06:35
were able to bring a city of 20 million people
138
395801
3530
uspjelo je dovesti grad s 20 milijuna stanovnika
06:39
to a standstill.
139
399331
2162
u zastoj.
06:41
Ten people brought 20 million people
140
401493
1970
10 ljudi je dovelo 20 milijuna ljudi
06:43
to a standstill, and this traveled around the world.
141
403463
4194
u zastoj, i taj čin je obišao svijet.
06:47
This is what radicals can do with openness.
142
407657
6310
To je ono što radikali mogu učiniti s otvorenošću.
06:53
This was done nearly four years ago.
143
413967
2518
To se dogodilo prije gotovo četiri godine.
06:56
What could terrorists do today
144
416485
1541
Što bi teroristi mogli napraviti danas
06:58
with the technologies available that we have?
145
418026
2913
s tehnologijom koja nam je sada dostupna?
07:00
What will they do tomorrow?
146
420939
3335
Što će učiniti sutra?
07:04
The ability of one to affect many
147
424274
2379
Sposobnost da jedan utječe na mnoge
07:06
is scaling exponentially,
148
426653
2416
raste eksponencijalno
07:09
and it's scaling for good and it's scaling for evil.
149
429069
4281
i taj se rast odnosi na dobro kao i na zlo.
07:13
It's not just about terrorism, though.
150
433350
2254
Iako, nije to samo s terorizmom.
07:15
There's also been a big paradigm shift in crime.
151
435604
2310
Dogodio se i veliki pomak u konceptu zločina.
07:17
You see, you can now commit more crime as well.
152
437914
4293
Vidite, danas se također može obaviti i veći broj zločina.
07:22
In the old days, it was a knife and a gun.
153
442207
2280
U stara vremena, postojao je samo nož i pištolj.
07:24
Then criminals moved to robbing trains.
154
444487
2392
Zatim su kriminalci prešli na pljačkanje vlakova.
07:26
You could rob 200 people on a train, a great innovation.
155
446879
3627
Mogli ste orobiti 200 ljudi u vlaku, velika inovacija.
07:30
Moving forward, the Internet
156
450519
1701
Nadalje, internet je omogućio
07:32
allowed things to scale even more.
157
452220
2168
daljnje povećanje mjerila.
07:34
In fact, many of you will remember
158
454388
1552
U biti, mnogi od vas će se mogu sjetiti
07:35
the recent Sony PlayStation hack.
159
455940
1736
nedavnog hakiranja Sony PlayStationa.
07:37
In that incident, over 100 million people were robbed.
160
457676
6497
U tom incidentu, pokradeno je više od 100 milijuna ljudi.
07:44
Think about that.
161
464173
1726
Razmislite o tome.
07:45
When in the history of humanity
162
465899
1466
Kada je u ljudskoj povijesti
07:47
has it ever been possible for one person
163
467365
2202
bilo moguće da jedna osoba
07:49
to rob 100 million?
164
469567
5399
opljačka 100 milijuna ljudi?
07:54
Of course, it's not just about stealing things.
165
474966
1799
Naravno, nije sve u krađama predmeta.
07:56
There are other avenues of technology
166
476765
2287
Postoje razne grane tehnologije
07:59
that criminals can exploit.
167
479052
1445
koje kriminalci mogu iskoristiti.
08:00
Many of you will remember this super cute video
168
480497
3292
Mnogi od vas će se prisjetiti dražesnog videa
08:03
from the last TED,
169
483789
2392
sa zadnjeg TED-a,
08:06
but not all quadcopter swarms are so nice and cute.
170
486181
5070
ali nisu svi rojevi kvadrikoptera tako dražesni i dobri.
08:11
They don't all have drumsticks.
171
491251
2147
Nemaju svi palice za bubnjeve.
08:13
Some can be armed with HD cameras
172
493398
1858
Neki mogu biti naoružani HD kamerama
08:15
and do countersurveillance on protesters,
173
495256
2503
i sprječavati nadzor nad prosvjednicima,
08:17
or, as in this little bit of movie magic,
174
497759
2896
ili, kao u ovom djeliću filmske čarolije,
08:20
quadcopters can be loaded with firearms
175
500655
3703
kvadrikopteri mogu biti opremljeni vatrenim oružjem
08:24
and automatic weapons.
176
504358
3558
i automatskim puškama.
08:27
Little robots are cute when they play music to you.
177
507916
2713
Mali roboti su dražesni kada vam sviraju glazbu.
08:30
When they swarm and chase you down the block
178
510629
2768
Kada se grupiraju u rojeve i love vas ulicom
08:33
to shoot you, a little bit less so.
179
513397
3632
da bi vas upucali, ipak su malo manje dražesni.
08:37
Of course, criminals and terrorists weren't the first
180
517029
2049
Naravno, kriminalci i teroristi nisu bili prvi
08:39
to give guns to robots. We know where that started.
181
519078
2838
koji su dali oružje robotima. Svi znamo gdje je to počelo.
08:41
But they're adapting quickly.
182
521916
1336
Ali prilagođavaju se brzo.
08:43
Recently, the FBI arrested
183
523252
1980
Nedavno je FBI uhitio
08:45
an al Qaeda affiliate in the United States,
184
525232
1807
osobu povezanu s al Qaeda-om u SAD-u,
08:47
who was planning on using these remote-controlled
185
527039
1921
koja je planirala koristiti ove bespilotne letjelice
08:48
drone aircraft to fly C4 explosives
186
528960
2927
na daljinsko upravljanje kako bi prenio C4 eksploziv
08:51
into government buildings in the United States.
187
531887
2609
na vladine zgrade u SAD-u.
08:54
By the way, these travel at over 600 miles an hour.
188
534496
5387
Usput, ove mogu letjeti brzinama od preko 960 km/h.
08:59
Every time a new technology is being introduced,
189
539883
2374
Svaki put kad se uvodi nova tehnologija,
09:02
criminals are there to exploit it.
190
542257
2641
kriminalci su tu da je iskoriste.
09:04
We've all seen 3D printers.
191
544898
1447
Svi smo vidjeli 3D printere.
09:06
We know with them that you can print
192
546345
1432
Znamo da za printanje mogu koristiti
09:07
in many materials ranging from plastic
193
547777
2832
različite materijale od plastike
09:10
to chocolate to metal and even concrete.
194
550609
4365
pa sve do čokolade i metala pa čak i betona.
09:14
With great precision
195
554974
1386
S velikom sam preciznošću
09:16
I actually was able to make this
196
556360
2059
zapravo uspio nekidan napraviti ovu
09:18
just the other day, a very cute little ducky.
197
558419
1549
veoma dražesnu patkicu.
09:25
But I wonder to myself,
198
565343
1844
Ali zapitao sam se
09:27
for those people that strap bombs to their chests
199
567187
6913
kako bi ljudi koji postavljaju bombe na sebe
09:34
and blow themselves up,
200
574100
1081
i dižu se u zrak,
09:35
how might they use 3D printers?
201
575181
3757
mogli iskoristiti 3D printere.
09:38
Perhaps like this.
202
578938
4113
Možda na ovaj način.
09:43
You see, if you can print in metal,
203
583051
2193
Vidite, ukoliko možete printati metal,
09:45
you can print one of these,
204
585244
3347
možete isprintati jedan ovakav
09:48
and in fact
205
588591
2467
i, u biti,
09:54
you can also print one of these too.
206
594750
3243
možete isprintati i jedan ovakav.
10:00
The UK I know has some very strict firearms laws.
207
600793
4551
Velika Britanija kakvu poznajem ima neke veoma striktne zakone u vezi vatrenog oružja.
10:05
You needn't bring the gun into the UK anymore.
208
605344
2121
Više ne moraš unijeti oružje u Veliku Britaniju.
10:07
You just bring the 3D printer
209
607465
1655
Samo doneseš 3D printer
10:09
and print the gun while you're here,
210
609120
2835
i isprintaš si pištolj dok si ondje
10:11
and, of course, the magazines for your bullets.
211
611955
3105
i, naravno, spremnik za metke.
10:15
But as these get bigger in the future,
212
615060
1536
Ali kako će se povećavati njihova veličina s vremenom,
10:16
what other items will you be able to print?
213
616596
2145
koje će se sve stvari moći printati?
10:18
The technologies are allowing bigger printers.
214
618741
3288
Tehnologije omogućavaju veće printere.
10:22
As we move forward,
215
622029
1348
I kako idemo naprijed,
10:23
we'll see new technologies also, like the Internet of Things.
216
623377
2692
vidjet ćemo i nove stvari, poput Interneta za stvari.
10:26
Every day we're connecting more and more of our lives
217
626069
2031
Svakodnevno povezujemo život sve više i više
10:28
to the Internet, which means
218
628100
2593
s internetom, što znači
10:30
that the Internet of Things will soon be
219
630693
4226
da će Internet stvari uskoro biti
10:34
the Internet of Things To Be Hacked.
220
634919
1764
internet stvari za hakiranje.
10:36
All of the physical objects in our space
221
636683
2023
Svi fizički objekti u našem prostoru
10:38
are being transformed into information technologies,
222
638706
2864
se transformiraju u informacijske tehnologije,
10:41
and that has a radical implication for our security,
223
641570
3555
i to predstavlja radikalne implikacije za našu sigurnost,
10:45
because more connections to more devices
224
645125
3010
zato što veći broj veza prema uređajima
10:48
means more vulnerabilities.
225
648135
2579
označava i veću ranjivost.
10:50
Criminals understand this.
226
650714
1748
Kriminalci to razumiju.
10:52
Terrorists understand this. Hackers understand this.
227
652462
1879
Teroristi to razumiju. Hakeri to razumiju.
10:54
If you control the code, you control the world.
228
654341
3163
Ukoliko kontroliraš kod, kontroliraš i svijet.
10:57
This is the future that awaits us.
229
657504
4671
To je budućnost koja nas čeka.
11:02
There has not yet been an operating system
230
662175
2837
Do sada nije postojao operativni sustav
11:05
or a technology that hasn't been hacked.
231
665012
2600
ili tehnologija koja nije bila hakirana.
11:07
That's troubling, since the human body itself
232
667612
2738
To je zabrinjavajuće zato što samo ljudsko tijelo
11:10
is now becoming an information technology.
233
670350
3098
danas postaje informacijskom tehnologijom.
11:13
As we've seen here, we're transforming ourselves into cyborgs.
234
673448
3567
Kao što smo vidjeli, mi transformiramo naša tijela u kiborge.
11:17
Every year, thousands of cochlear implants,
235
677015
2552
Svake godine, tisuće umjetnih pužnica,
11:19
diabetic pumps, pacemakers
236
679567
2218
dijabetičkih pumpi, pacemakera
11:21
and defibrillators are being implanted in people.
237
681785
2215
i defibrilatora se implantira u ljude.
11:24
In the United States, there are 60,000 people
238
684000
2648
U SAD-u 60,000 ljudi
11:26
who have a pacemaker that connects to the Internet.
239
686648
2962
ima pacemakere koji se spajaju na internet.
11:29
The defibrillators allow a physician at a distance
240
689610
3364
Defibrilatori omogućuju doktorima da na daljinu
11:32
to give a shock to a heart
241
692974
1790
daju impuls srcu
11:34
in case a patient needs it.
242
694764
2350
ukoliko je to pacijentu potrebno.
11:37
But if you don't need it,
243
697114
2091
Ali ako ne trebate impuls,
11:39
and somebody else gives you the shock,
244
699205
1776
a netko drugi vam ga da,
11:40
it's not a good thing.
245
700981
3391
to nije dobra stvar.
11:44
Of course, we're going to go even deeper than the human body.
246
704372
3622
Naravno, ići ćemo i dalje od ljudskog tijela.
11:47
We're going down to the cellular level these days.
247
707994
2250
Ovih dana ćemo dostići i razinu stanica.
11:50
Up until this point, all the technologies
248
710244
2143
Sve do ovog trena, sve tehnologije
11:52
I've been talking about have been silicon-based, ones and zeroes,
249
712387
3788
o kojima sam pričao su bazirane na siliciju, jedinicama i nulama,
11:56
but there's another operating system out there:
250
716182
2691
ali postoji i jedan drugi operativni sustav:
11:58
the original operating system, DNA.
251
718873
4696
originalni operativni sustav, DNK.
12:03
And to hackers, DNA is just another operating system
252
723569
4440
A hakerima je DNK samo još jedan operativni sustav
12:08
waiting to be hacked.
253
728009
1999
koji čeka da bude hakiran.
12:10
It's a great challenge for them.
254
730008
1496
To im predstavlja veliki izazov.
12:11
There are people already working on hacking the software of life,
255
731504
1401
Već postoje ljudi koji rade na hakiranju programa života,
12:14
and while most of them are doing this to great good
256
734804
2957
i dok većina to radi za opće dobro,
12:17
and to help us all,
257
737761
1401
i kako bi svima nama pomogli,
12:19
some won't be.
258
739162
3536
neki neće raditi za taj cilj.
12:22
So how will criminals abuse this?
259
742698
1662
Kako će onda kriminalci zlouporabiti to?
12:24
Well, with synthetic biology you can do some pretty neat things.
260
744360
2283
Pa, sa sintetičkom biologijom mogu se raditi poprilično zgodne stvari.
12:26
For example, I predict that we will move away
261
746643
3196
Naprimjer, predviđam da ćemo se udaljiti
12:29
from a plant-based narcotics world
262
749839
3111
od narkotika baziranih na biljkama
12:32
to a synthetic one. Why do you need the plants anymore?
263
752950
3059
prema sintetičkima. Zašto nam uopće i treba više biljka?
12:36
You can just take the DNA code from marijuana
264
756009
3117
Možemo jednostavno uzeti DNK marihuane,
12:39
or poppies or coca leaves
265
759126
4792
maka ili lišća od koke
12:43
and cut and past that gene
266
763918
2320
i kopirati te prenijeti taj gen
12:46
and put it into yeast,
267
766238
2677
u kvasac,
12:48
and you can take those yeast
268
768915
1402
koji ćemo zatim iskoristiti
12:50
and make them make the cocaine for you,
269
770317
3272
da radi kokain za nas,
12:53
or the marijuana, or any other drug.
270
773589
3784
ili marihuanu, ili bilo koju drugu drogu.
12:57
So how we use yeast in the future
271
777373
1784
Načini na koji ćemo koristiti kvasac u budućnosti
12:59
is going to be really interesting.
272
779157
1890
bit će zbilja zanimljivi.
13:01
In fact, we may have some really interesting bread and beer
273
781047
2344
U biti, možda ćemo imati stvarno zanimljiv kruh i pivo
13:03
as we go into this next century.
274
783391
3823
kada budemo kročili kroz sljedeće stoljeće.
13:07
The cost of sequencing the human genome is dropping precipitously.
275
787214
3998
Cijena sekvenciranja ljudskog genoma se strahovito smanjuje.
13:11
It was proceeding at Moore's Law pace,
276
791212
2388
Nekoć je pratila krivulju Moorovog zakona,
13:13
but then in 2008, something changed.
277
793600
1966
ali se onda u 2008. nešto promjenilo.
13:15
The technologies got better,
278
795566
1672
Tehnologije su se poboljšale
13:17
and now DNA sequencing is proceeding at a pace
279
797238
3846
i sada se sekvenciranje DNK vrši po krivulji
13:21
five times that of Moore's Law.
280
801084
3118
pet puta bržoj od one od Moorovog zakona.
13:24
That has significant implications for us.
281
804202
3824
To ima važne implikacije za nas.
13:28
It took us 30 years to get from
282
808026
2743
Trebalo je proći 30 godina
13:30
the introduction of the personal computer
283
810769
2156
od uvođenja osobnog kompjutera
13:32
to the level of cybercrime we have today,
284
812925
2229
do razine cyber kriminala koji imamo danas,
13:35
but looking at how biology is proceeding so rapidly,
285
815154
3627
ali pogledajte kako se brzo biologija razvija,
13:38
and knowing criminals and terrorists as I do,
286
818781
1664
a poznavajući kriminalce i teroriste kako ih ja poznajem,
13:40
we may get there a lot faster
287
820445
2869
mogli bismo se susresti puno brže
13:43
with biocrime in the future.
288
823314
1869
s bio-kriminalom u budućnosti.
13:45
It will be easy for anybody to go ahead
289
825183
2039
Za svakogaće biti lakše
13:47
and print their own bio-virus,
290
827222
1880
isprintati svoji bio-virus,
13:49
enhanced versions of ebola or anthrax,
291
829102
2762
poboljšanu verziju ebole ili antraksa,
13:51
weaponized flu.
292
831864
1758
gripe kao biološkog oružja.
13:53
We recently saw a case where some researchers
293
833622
2789
Nedavno smo svjedočili slučaju gdje su neki istraživaći
13:56
made the H5N1 avian influenza virus more potent.
294
836411
5026
pojačali virus ptičje gripe H5N1.
14:01
It already has a 70 percent mortality rate
295
841437
3466
Već sada ima stopu smrtnosti od 70%,
14:04
if you get it, but it's hard to get.
296
844903
1590
ako se zarazite, ali teško se zaraziti.
14:06
Engineers, by moving around a small number
297
846493
2808
Inžinjeri su, radeći male preinake
14:09
of genetic changes,
298
849301
1656
u genetskom kodu,
14:10
were able to weaponize it
299
850957
1699
mogli napraviti oružje od njega
14:12
and make it much more easy for human beings to catch,
300
852656
3262
na način da se ljudi puno lakše zaraze njime,
14:15
so that not thousands of people would die,
301
855918
2183
tako da ne bi doveo do smrti tisuće ljudi,
14:18
but tens of millions.
302
858101
1713
već desetaka milijuna.
14:19
You see, you can go ahead and create
303
859814
2490
Vidite, možete stvoriti
14:22
new pandemics, and the researchers who did this
304
862304
1981
nove pandemije, i istraživači koji su ovo učinili
14:24
were so proud of their accomplishments,
305
864285
1512
bili su jako ponosni na svoja postignuća,
14:25
they wanted to publish it openly
306
865797
1889
željeli su to objaviti javno
14:27
so that everybody could see this
307
867686
2103
tako da svi to mogu mogu vidjeti
14:29
and get access to this information.
308
869789
4144
i dobiti informacije o tome.
14:33
But it goes deeper than that.
309
873933
1795
Ali ide i dublje od toga.
14:35
DNA researcher Andrew Hessel
310
875728
1942
DNK istraživač Andrew Hessel
14:37
has pointed out quite rightly
311
877670
1397
je s pravom skrenuo pozornost
14:39
that if you can use cancer treatments,
312
879067
2283
na činjenicu da ukoliko se može koristiti liječenje raka,
14:41
modern cancer treatments,
313
881350
1128
moderno liječenje raka,
14:42
to go after one cell while leaving all the other cells
314
882478
2949
gdje se napadaju stanice raka ne dirajući sve
14:45
around it intact,
315
885427
1656
ostale okolne stanice,
14:47
then you can also go after any one person's cell.
316
887083
4144
tada se mogu ciljati i samo stanice određene osobe.
14:51
Personalized cancer treatments
317
891227
1978
Personalizirajuće liječenje raka
14:53
are the flip side of personalized bioweapons,
318
893205
2614
je samo druga strana medalje personalizirajućih biooružja,
14:55
which means you can attack any one individual,
319
895819
3386
što znači da se može napasti bilo koja osoba,
14:59
including all the people in this picture.
320
899205
4183
uključujući sve osobe s ove slike.
15:03
How will we protect them in the future?
321
903388
4128
Kako ćemo ih obraniti u budućnosti?
15:07
What to do? What to do about all this?
322
907516
2810
Što učiniti? Što učiniti oko svega ovoga?
15:10
That's what I get asked all the time.
323
910326
2495
Takva pitanja mi stalno postavljaju.
15:12
For those of you who follow me on Twitter,
324
912821
1587
Za one koji me prate na Twitteru,
15:14
I will be tweeting out the answer later on today. (Laughter)
325
914408
4530
postavit ću odgovor kasnije popodne. (Smijeh)
15:18
Actually, it's a bit more complex than that,
326
918938
2635
U biti, stvar je malo kompleksnija od toga
15:21
and there are no magic bullets.
327
921573
2079
i ne postoji čarobni napitak.
15:23
I don't have all the answers,
328
923652
1712
Ne posjedujem sve odgovore,
15:25
but I know a few things.
329
925364
1664
ali znam nekoliko stvari.
15:27
In the wake of 9/11,
330
927028
2697
Odmah nakon 11. rujna,
15:29
the best security minds
331
929725
2790
najbolji sigurnosni mozgovi,
15:32
put together all their innovation
332
932515
1984
sakupili su sve svoje inovacije
15:34
and this is what they created for security.
333
934499
4139
i ovo je ono što su stvorili za sigurnost.
15:38
If you're expecting the people who built this to protect you
334
938638
4021
Ukoliko očekuješ da će te ljudi koji su stvorili ovo
15:42
from the coming robopocalypse — (Laughter)
335
942659
3716
obraniti od nadolazeće roboapokalipse - (Smijeh)
15:46
— uh, you may want to have a backup plan. (Laughter)
336
946375
2952
- bolje ti je da imaš rezervni plan. (Smijeh)
15:49
Just saying. Just think about that. (Applause)
337
949327
6199
Samo kažem. Razmislite o tome. (Pljesak)
15:55
Law enforcement is currently a closed system.
338
955526
2919
Provođenje zakona je trenutno zatvoreni sustav.
15:58
It's nation-based, while the threat is international.
339
958445
2802
Nacionalno je baziran, dok je prijetnja internacionalna.
16:01
Policing doesn't scale globally. At least, it hasn't,
340
961247
3948
Policija ne djeluje globalno. Barem nije do sada,
16:05
and our current system of guns, border guards, big gates and fences
341
965195
4283
i trenutni sustavi oružja, granične kontrole, velikih vrata i ograda
16:09
are outdated in the new world into which we're moving.
342
969478
3111
su zastarjeli u odnosu na svijet prema kojemu se krećemo.
16:12
So how might we prepare for some of these specific threats,
343
972589
2276
Kako se možemo pripremiti na neke od ovih specifičnih prijetnji,
16:14
like attacking a president or a prime minister?
344
974865
2423
poput napada na predsjednika ili premijera?
16:17
This would be the natural government response,
345
977288
2137
Ovo bi bila normalna reakcija vlade,
16:19
to hide away all our government leaders
346
979425
2277
sakriti negdje sve vladine vođe
16:21
in hermetically sealed bubbles.
347
981702
1811
u hermetički zatvorene balone.
16:23
But this is not going to work.
348
983513
1832
Ali to neće funkcionirati.
16:25
The cost of doing a DNA sequence is going to be trivial.
349
985345
3136
Trošak sekvenciranja DNK će biti trivijalan.
16:28
Anybody will have it and we will all have them in the future.
350
988481
3245
Svi će ga raditi i svi ćemo ga imati u budućnosti.
16:31
So maybe there's a more radical way that we can look at this.
351
991726
3453
Dakle, možda postoji radikalniji pristup kako gledati na sve to.
16:35
What happens if we were to take
352
995183
1928
Što bi se dogodilo kada bismo uzeli
16:37
the President's DNA, or a king or queen's,
353
997111
3200
DNK predsjednika, ili kralja ili kraljice,
16:40
and put it out to a group of a few hundred
354
1000311
2336
i dali ga na raspolaganje grupi od nekoliko stotina
16:42
trusted researchers so they could
355
1002647
1896
istraživača od povjerenja kako bi ga mogli
16:44
study that DNA and do penetration testing against it
356
1004543
2936
istražiti i izvršiti testiranja na njemu
16:47
as a means of helping our leaders?
357
1007479
2208
kao pomoć našim vođama?
16:49
Or what if we sent it out to a few thousand?
358
1009687
2257
A što da ga damo tisućama?
16:51
Or, controversially, and not without its risks,
359
1011944
2662
Ili, kontroverznije, i ne bez rizika,
16:54
what happens if we just gave it to the whole public?
360
1014606
2859
što bi se dogodilo kada bismo ga dali cijeloj javnosti?
16:57
Then we could all be engaged in helping.
361
1017465
3565
Tada bismo svi bili uključeni u pomaganje.
17:01
We've already seen examples of this working well.
362
1021030
2616
Već smo vidjeli primjere kada je to funkcioniralo.
17:03
The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project
363
1023646
2928
Projekt za izvještavanje o organiziranom kriminalu i korupciji,
17:06
is staffed by journalists and citizens
364
1026574
1672
na kojemu rade novinari i građani
17:08
where they are crowd-sourcing
365
1028246
1736
koji dobivaju podatke od velikih grupa ljudi
17:09
what dictators and terrorists are doing
366
1029982
2613
o tome što diktatori i teroristi rade
17:12
with public funds around the world,
367
1032595
1682
s javnim sredstvima diljem svijeta.
17:14
and, in a more dramatic case,
368
1034277
1667
Dramatičniji slučaj
17:15
we've seen in Mexico,
369
1035944
2304
vidjeli smo u Meksiku,
17:18
a country that has been racked
370
1038248
1624
zemlji koja je izmučena
17:19
by 50,000 narcotics-related murders
371
1039872
4013
od 50,000 ubojstava povezanim s narkoticima
17:23
in the past six years.
372
1043885
1766
u posljednjih šest godina.
17:25
They're killing so many people
373
1045651
1375
Ubijaju toliko ljudi
17:27
they can't even afford to bury them all
374
1047026
2280
da si ne mogu ni priuštiti da ih sve sahrane
17:29
in anything but these unmarked graves
375
1049306
1769
u bilo čemu osim u neobilježenim grobovima
17:31
like this one outside of Ciudad Juarez.
376
1051075
3405
kao što su ovi izvan Ciudad Juareza.
17:34
What can we do about this? The government has proven ineffective.
377
1054480
3108
Što možemo napraviti u vezi toga? Vlada se pokazala neučinkovitom.
17:37
So in Mexico, citizens, at great risk to themselves,
378
1057588
3137
Tako u Meksiku, građani, stavljajući sebe u veliki rizik,
17:40
are fighting back to build an effective solution.
379
1060725
4079
uzvraćaju udarac kako bi izgradili efektivno rješenje.
17:44
They're crowd-mapping the activities of the drug dealers.
380
1064804
4184
Grupno mapiraju aktivnosti dilera drogom.
17:48
Whether or not you realize it,
381
1068988
1792
Shvaćate li vi to ili ne,
17:50
we are at the dawn of a technological arms race,
382
1070780
3685
nalazimo se u praskozorju utrke za tehnološkim naoružanjem,
17:54
an arms race between people
383
1074465
1778
utrke u naoružanju između ljudi
17:56
who are using technology for good
384
1076243
1762
koji koriste tehnologiju za dobro
17:58
and those who are using it for ill.
385
1078005
2208
i onih koji je koriste za loše.
18:00
The threat is serious, and the time to prepare for it is now.
386
1080213
4361
Prijetnja je ozbiljna, a vrijeme za pripremu je sad.
18:04
I can assure you that the terrorists and criminals are.
387
1084574
3433
Mogu vam jamčiti da su teroristi i kriminalci već spremni.
18:08
My personal belief is that,
388
1088007
2103
Moje osobno mišljenje jest
18:10
rather than having a small, elite force
389
1090110
1945
da umjesto da imamo malu, elitnu jedinicu
18:12
of highly trained government agents
390
1092055
2040
visoko istreniranih vladinih agenata
18:14
here to protect us all,
391
1094095
1721
koji su tu da nam pomognu,
18:15
we're much better off
392
1095816
1703
bilo bi nam puno bolje
18:17
having average and ordinary citizens
393
1097519
2079
da imamo prosječne i obične građane
18:19
approaching this problem as a group
394
1099598
2424
koji pristupaju problemu kao grupa
18:22
and seeing what we can do.
395
1102022
1313
i vide što mi možemo učiniti.
18:23
If we all do our part,
396
1103335
1249
Ukoliko svatko od nas radi svoj dio,
18:24
I think we'll be in a much better space.
397
1104584
2327
vjerujem da ćemose naći na puno boljem mjestu.
18:26
The tools to change the world
398
1106911
1467
Alati za promjenu svijeta
18:28
are in everybody's hands.
399
1108378
1693
nalaze se u rukama svih nas.
18:30
How we use them is not just up to me,
400
1110071
2839
Kako ćemo ih koristiti nije samo do mene,
18:32
it's up to all of us.
401
1112910
2482
nego do svih nas.
18:35
This was a technology I would frequently deploy
402
1115392
2633
Ovo je bila tehnologija koju bih često koristio
18:38
as a police officer.
403
1118025
1921
kao policijski službenik.
18:39
This technology has become outdated in our current world.
404
1119946
3775
Ta tehnologija je postala zastarjela u trenutnom svijetu.
18:43
It doesn't scale, it doesn't work globally,
405
1123734
2712
Ne povećava se, ne djeluje globalno,
18:46
and it surely doesn't work virtually.
406
1126446
2072
i definitivno ne funkcionira virtualno.
18:48
We've seen paradigm shifts in crime and terrorism.
407
1128518
3268
Svjedočili smo pomaku u obrascima zločina i terorizma.
18:51
They call for a shift to a more open form
408
1131786
4347
Oni zovu na promjene prema otvorenijim oblicima
18:56
and a more participatory form of law enforcement.
409
1136133
4897
i prema participativnijim oblicima policije.
19:01
So I invite you to join me.
410
1141030
2639
Tako da vas zovem da mi se priključite.
19:03
After all, public safety is too important to leave to the professionals.
411
1143669
5188
Naposljetku, javna zaštita je previše važna da je se prepusti profesionalcima.
19:08
Thank you. (Applause)
412
1148857
2807
Hvala Vam. (Pljesak)
19:11
(Applause)
413
1151664
7881
(Pljesak)
O ovoj web stranici

Ova stranica će vas upoznati s YouTube videozapisima koji su korisni za učenje engleskog jezika. Vidjet ćete lekcije engleskog koje vode vrhunski profesori iz cijelog svijeta. Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove prikazane na svakoj video stranici da biste reproducirali video s tog mjesta. Titlovi se pomiču sinkronizirano s reprodukcijom videozapisa. Ako imate bilo kakvih komentara ili zahtjeva, obratite nam se putem ovog obrasca za kontakt.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7