Jeremy Jackson: How we wrecked the ocean

72,897 views ・ 2010-05-05

TED


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翻译人员: Sylvia Cao 校对人员: Annie Chen
00:16
I'm an ecologist,
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我是一名生态学家,
00:18
mostly a coral reef ecologist.
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主要是珊瑚礁生态学家。
00:20
I started out in Chesapeake Bay
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我的研究工作起步于Chesapeake海湾
00:22
and went diving in the winter
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我冬天出去潜水
00:24
and became a tropical ecologist overnight.
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一夜之间成为一名热带生态学家
00:27
And it was really a lot of fun
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这项工作充满了乐趣
00:30
for about 10 years.
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前后大约十年
00:32
I mean, somebody pays you
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我是说,有人付钱
00:34
to go around and travel
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让你四处旅行
00:36
and look at some of the most
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欣赏地球上
00:38
beautiful places on the planet.
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风景最美的地方
00:40
And that was what I did.
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那就是我的工作。
00:43
And I ended up in Jamaica,
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最后我到了牙买加
00:45
in the West Indies,
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在西印度群岛
00:47
where the coral reefs were really
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那儿的珊瑚礁的确是
00:49
among the most extraordinary, structurally,
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结构上最为奇特的
00:51
that I ever saw in my life.
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为我平生所罕见
00:54
And this picture here,
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这张照片
00:56
it's really interesting, it shows two things:
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很有意思,它显示了两点。
00:58
First of all, it's in black and white
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首先,它是黑白的
01:00
because the water was so clear
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因为水是如此清澈
01:02
and you could see so far,
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你可以看得很远
01:04
and film was so slow
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曝光很慢
01:06
in the 1960s and early 70s,
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那是六十年代和七十年代早期
01:08
you took pictures in black and white.
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照片都是黑白的
01:10
The other thing it shows you
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它显示的另外一点
01:12
is that, although there's this beautiful
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纵然有这些
01:14
forest of coral,
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美丽的珊瑚丛
01:16
there are no fish in that picture.
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照片上却看不到鱼
01:19
Those reefs at Discovery Bay, Jamaica
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牙买加 Discovery湾的那些珊瑚礁
01:22
were the most studied coral reefs
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是全球过去的20年中
01:24
in the world for 20 years.
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最受研究者关注的珊瑚礁
01:26
We were the best and the brightest.
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当时我们是最优秀最杰出的
01:28
People came to study our reefs from Australia,
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曾经有人从澳大利亚跑来研究我们的珊瑚礁
01:31
which is sort of funny
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这多少有些滑稽
01:33
because now we go to theirs.
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因为现在我们跑去研究他们的珊瑚礁
01:35
And the view of scientists
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科学家们关于
01:38
about how coral reefs work, how they ought to be,
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珊瑚礁的正常生长状态的观点
01:41
was based on these reefs
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都建立在这些
01:43
without any fish.
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不存在鱼类的珊瑚礁上
01:45
Then, in 1980,
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然后,到了1980年
01:47
there was a hurricane, Hurricane Allen.
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一场飓风袭来,飓风Allen
01:50
I put half the lab
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我把半个实验室
01:52
up in my house.
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搬到了我家里
01:54
The wind blew very strong.
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狂风大作
01:56
The waves were 25
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海浪高达25
01:59
to 50 feet high.
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到50英尺
02:01
And the reefs disappeared, and new islands formed,
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珊瑚礁消失了,新的岛屿形成了
02:04
and we thought, "Well, we're real smart.
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我们想,“哦,我们真是太聪明了。
02:06
We know that hurricanes
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我们知道飓风
02:08
have always happened in the past."
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历来都在发生。”
02:10
And we published a paper in Science,
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我们在《科学》杂志发表了一篇论文
02:12
the first time that anybody ever
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那是第一次有人
02:14
described the destruction
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描述珊瑚礁
02:16
on a coral reef by a major hurricane.
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被一场大飓风毁灭的情景
02:19
And we predicted what would happen,
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我们对未来作出了预测
02:21
and we got it all wrong.
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结果我们全盘皆错
02:23
And the reason was
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原因就是
02:25
because of overfishing,
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过度捕捞
02:28
and the fact that a last common grazer,
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还有就是最后一个食藻生物
02:31
a sea urchin, died.
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海胆死了
02:34
And within a few months
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海胆死后几个月之内
02:36
after that sea urchin dying, the seaweed started to grow.
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海藻就开始生长
02:39
And that is the same reef;
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那是同一个珊瑚礁
02:41
that's the same reef 15 years ago;
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15年前的那个珊瑚礁
02:43
that's the same reef today.
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这是今天的同一个珊瑚礁
02:46
The coral reefs of the north coast of Jamaica
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牙买加北海岸的珊瑚礁
02:49
have a few percent live coral cover
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还剩下百分之几的活珊瑚覆盖率
02:52
and a lot of seaweed and slime.
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和大量的海藻及烂泥
02:54
And that's more or less the story
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这大致就是
02:56
of the coral reefs of the Caribbean,
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加勒比海珊瑚礁的故事
02:58
and increasingly, tragically,
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并悲剧性地日益成为
03:01
the coral reefs worldwide.
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全球珊瑚礁共同的命运
03:03
Now, that's my little, depressing story.
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这就是我悲伤的小故事
03:06
All of us in our 60s and 70s
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我们所有的人在六七十年代
03:09
have comparable depressing stories.
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都有类似悲伤的故事
03:12
There are tens of thousands
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成千上万个
03:14
of those stories out there,
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这样的故事在流传着
03:16
and it's really hard to conjure up
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让人很难唤起
03:18
much of a sense of well-being,
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任何乐观的情绪
03:20
because it just keeps getting worse.
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因为情况在日益恶化
03:22
And the reason it keeps getting worse
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日益恶化的原因是
03:24
is that after a natural catastrophe,
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在自然灾害过后
03:27
like a hurricane,
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例如一场飓风
03:31
it used to be that there was
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以前通常会有
03:33
some kind of successional sequence of recovery,
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一连串的恢复过程
03:36
but what's going on now is that
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但现在的情况是
03:39
overfishing and pollution and climate change
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过度捕捞、污染和气候变化
03:42
are all interacting
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彼此相互作用
03:44
in a way that prevents that.
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阻止这一过程的发生
03:46
And so I'm going to sort of go through
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因此我想梳理
03:48
and talk about those three
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并谈论一下
03:50
kinds of things.
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这三件事情
03:52
We hear a lot about
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我们经常听到关于
03:54
the collapse of cod.
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鳕鱼的灭绝
03:56
It's difficult to imagine that
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我们很难想象
03:58
two, or some historians would say three world wars
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两次,有些历史学家说三次
04:02
were fought during the colonial era
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殖民时期的世界大战都是为了
04:04
for the control of cod.
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争夺对鳕鱼的控制
04:06
Cod fed most of the people of Western Europe.
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鳕鱼养活了大部分西欧人
04:09
It fed the slaves
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也养活了
04:11
brought to the Antilles,
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被遣送到安地列斯群岛上的奴隶
04:14
the song "Jamaica Farewell" --
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有首歌叫“告别牙买加”
04:16
"Ackee rice salt fish are nice" --
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"阿开果饭和咸鳕鱼很美味”
04:18
is an emblem of the importance
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表明了来自加拿大东北部的
04:21
of salt cod from northeastern Canada.
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咸鳕鱼的重要性
04:24
It all collapsed in the 80s and the 90s:
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这一切都在八十和九十年代土崩瓦解
04:27
35,000 people lost their jobs.
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35000人丢掉了工作
04:30
And that was the beginning
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那仅仅是
04:32
of a kind of serial depletion
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一系列枯竭的开始
04:34
from bigger and tastier species
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从味道鲜美的大型种类
04:36
to smaller and not-so-tasty species,
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到味道一般的小型种类
04:39
from species that were near to home
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从家门口的种类
04:41
to species that were all around the world,
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到全球各地的种类
04:44
and what have you.
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你还剩下什么。
04:46
It's a little hard to understand that,
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这可能不容易理解
04:48
because you can go to a Costco in the United States
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因为你们可以在美国的Costco
04:51
and buy cheap fish.
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买到便宜的鱼
04:53
You ought to read the label to find out where it came from,
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你们应该阅读一下标签看它来自何处
04:55
but it's still cheap,
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但鱼还是很便宜
04:57
and everybody thinks it's okay.
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所有人都觉得没事
04:59
It's hard to communicate this,
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这个信息很难传达
05:01
and one way that I think is really interesting
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因此我认为一种有趣的方式是
05:04
is to talk about sport fish,
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讨论一下垂钓运动
05:07
because people like to go out and catch fish.
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因为人们喜欢出去钓鱼
05:10
It's one of those things.
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就像这个
05:12
This picture here shows the trophy fish,
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照片上显示的是获胜的鱼
05:15
the biggest fish caught
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人们钓到的最大的鱼
05:17
by people who pay a lot of money
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有人花了很多钱
05:19
to get on a boat,
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开着船
05:21
go to a place off of Key West in Florida,
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来到福罗里达州 Key West 附近的一个地方
05:24
drink a lot of beer,
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喝很多啤酒
05:26
throw a lot of hooks and lines into the water,
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往水里扔一大堆鱼钩和鱼线
05:28
come back with the biggest and the best fish,
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结果钓到了最大最好的鱼
05:31
and the champion trophy fish
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获奖的这条冠军鱼
05:33
are put on this board, where people take a picture,
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就被摆到船上, 让人拍照
05:36
and this guy is obviously
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显然这个家伙
05:38
really excited about that fish.
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对那条鱼激动万分
05:41
Well, that's what it's like now,
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好了,那就是眼下的情景
05:43
but this is what it was like in the 1950s
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但这个是五十年代的情景
05:45
from the same boat in the same place
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同样的船同样的地方
05:48
on the same board on the same dock.
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同一个码头同一个船舷
05:51
The trophy fish
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获胜的鱼
05:53
were so big
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是那么大
05:55
that you couldn't put any of those small fish up on it.
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那些小鱼根本没法比。
05:58
And the average size trophy fish
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获胜的鱼的平均重量
06:00
weighed 250 to 300 pounds, goliath grouper,
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在250到300磅之间,巨型鲈鱼
06:03
and if you wanted to go out and kill something,
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你如果想外出捕捞点什么
06:05
you could pretty much count on
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你几乎肯定可以
06:07
being able to catch one of those fish.
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捕到一条那样的鱼
06:09
And they tasted really good.
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而且味道极其鲜美
06:11
And people paid less in 1950 dollars
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人们在1950年捕捞大鱼
06:14
to catch that
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所花的钱
06:16
than what people pay now
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比现在抓小鱼
06:18
to catch those little, tiny fish.
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所花的钱还少
06:21
And that's everywhere.
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到处都是如此
06:23
It's not just the fish, though,
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不仅仅是鱼类
06:25
that are disappearing.
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正在消失
06:27
Industrial fishing uses big stuff,
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工业化捕捞用的是大家伙
06:30
big machinery.
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大机器
06:32
We use nets that are 20 miles long.
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我们使用20英里长的渔网
06:34
We use longlines
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极长的鱼线
06:36
that have one million or two million hooks.
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带有100万到200万个鱼钩
06:39
And we trawl,
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我们使用拖网
06:41
which means to take something
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那就是说使用一个
06:43
the size of a tractor trailer truck
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牵引式挂车那么大的东西
06:45
that weighs thousands and thousands of pounds,
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重达几千磅
06:48
put it on a big chain,
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挂上巨大的链子
06:50
and drag it across the sea floor
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从海底横扫而过
06:52
to stir up the bottom and catch the fish.
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翻起海床来捕捉鱼类
06:55
Think of it as
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可以把这想象成
06:58
being kind of the bulldozing of a city
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推倒一座城市
07:00
or of a forest,
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或者一个森林
07:02
because it clears it away.
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因为一切被一扫而光
07:04
And the habitat destruction
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那种栖息地的灭绝
07:06
is unbelievable.
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简直令人难以置信
07:08
This is a photograph,
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这是一张照片
07:10
a typical photograph,
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一张典型的照片
07:12
of what the continental shelves
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显示了全球
07:14
of the world look like.
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大陆架的状况
07:16
You can see the rows in the bottom,
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你们可以看到底部的条纹
07:19
the way you can see the rows
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就好象你们能看到
07:21
in a field that has just been plowed
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刚被犁过的
07:23
to plant corn.
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玉米地
07:25
What that was, was a forest of sponges and coral,
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那里曾经是海绵和珊瑚丛
07:28
which is a critical habitat
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那是鱼类生长
07:30
for the development of fish.
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至关重要的栖息地
07:32
What it is now is mud,
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现在却成了泥土
07:35
and the area of the ocean floor
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全球海底
07:38
that has been transformed from forest
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从丛林变为
07:41
to level mud, to parking lot,
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停车场式泥地的海域
07:43
is equivalent to the entire area
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相当于
07:46
of all the forests
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人类历史上
07:48
that have ever been cut down
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被砍伐的
07:50
on all of the earth
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全球的
07:52
in the history of humanity.
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所有森林的面积。
07:54
We've managed to do that
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这一点我们是在
07:56
in the last 100 to 150 years.
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过去100到150年间完成的
08:00
We tend to think of oil spills
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我们总是想到石油泄漏
08:02
and mercury
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或者水银
08:04
and we hear a lot about plastic these days.
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现在人们也经常谈论塑料制品
08:06
And all of that stuff is really disgusting,
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所有这些都很可恨
08:08
but what's really insidious
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但真正隐伏的危险
08:10
is the biological pollution that happens
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是生物污染
08:13
because of the magnitude of the shifts
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来源于它对
08:16
that it causes
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整个生态系统造成的
08:18
to entire ecosystems.
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巨大的变迁
08:20
And I'm going to just talk very briefly
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我只想简要地讨论
08:22
about two kinds of biological pollution:
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两种生物污染
08:25
one is introduced species
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一是入侵物种
08:27
and the other is what comes from nutrients.
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另外一个来源于营养素
08:30
So this is the infamous
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这就是臭名昭著的
08:32
Caulerpa taxifolia,
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杉叶蕨藻
08:34
the so-called killer algae.
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所谓的致命海藻
08:37
A book was written about it.
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有整整一本书写的就是这个
08:39
It's a bit of an embarrassment.
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实在是令人尴尬
08:41
It was accidentally released
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它在偶然之间
08:43
from the aquarium in Monaco,
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被从摩纳哥的一个水族馆释放出来
08:45
it was bred to be cold tolerant
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它耐寒性强
08:48
to have in peoples aquaria.
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用于装点水族馆
08:50
It's very pretty,
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非常漂亮
08:52
and it has rapidly started
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它开始迅速地
08:54
to overgrow
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过度生长
08:56
the once very rich
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侵占了一度
08:58
biodiversity of the
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生物种类繁多的
09:00
northwestern Mediterranean.
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地中海西北部
09:02
I don't know how many of you remember the movie
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我不知道你们中间有多少人记得这部电影
09:04
"The Little Shop of Horrors,"
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"异形奇花”
09:06
but this is the plant of "The Little Shop of Horrors."
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这就是"异形奇花”中的植物
09:09
But, instead of devouring the people in the shop,
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它没有吞噬小店里的人们
09:12
what it's doing is overgrowing
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而是疯狂生长
09:14
and smothering
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扼杀了
09:16
virtually all of the bottom-dwelling life
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几乎所有的海底生物
09:19
of the entire northwestern
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遍及整个
09:22
Mediterranean Sea.
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地中海西北部
09:24
We don't know anything that eats it,
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我们还未发现能够消灭它的东西
09:26
we're trying to do all sorts of genetics
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我们在尝试各种基因工程
09:28
and figure out something that could be done,
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来寻找解决办法
09:31
but, as it stands, it's the monster from hell,
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但是,就目前来说,它就是来自地狱的恶魔
09:34
about which nobody knows what to do.
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人们对它无能为力
09:37
Now another form of pollution
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现在我们来看另一种污染
09:40
that's biological pollution
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生物污染
09:42
is what happens from excess nutrients.
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来源于过量的营养素
09:44
The green revolution,
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绿色革命
09:46
all of this artificial nitrogen fertilizer, we use too much of it.
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让我们过度使用人工氮肥
09:49
It's subsidized, which is one of the reasons we used too much of it.
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政府补助,是我们过度使用的原因之一
09:52
It runs down the rivers,
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它沿河流而下
09:54
and it feeds the plankton,
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被浮游生物吸食
09:56
the little microscopic plant cells
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就是那些极小的植物细胞
09:58
in the coastal water.
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生长于沿海水域
10:00
But since we ate all the oysters
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但是由于我们吃光了所有的牡蛎
10:02
and we ate all the fish that would eat the plankton,
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和所有吞食这些浮游生物的鱼类
10:04
there's nothing to eat the plankton
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没有生物再去吞食这些浮游生物
10:06
and there's more and more of it,
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所以它们越长越多
10:08
so it dies of old age,
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直到自然死亡
10:10
which is unheard of for plankton.
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对浮游生物来说这是前所未有的
10:12
And when it dies, it falls to the bottom
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死亡后它沉入水底
10:14
and then it rots,
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然后腐烂
10:16
which means that bacteria break it down.
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这就意味着细菌会将它分解
10:18
And in the process
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在此过程中
10:20
they use up all the oxygen,
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它们耗尽了所有的氧气
10:22
and in using up all the oxygen
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在所有的氧气被耗尽之后
10:24
they make the environment utterly lethal
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就给任何无法游走的生物
10:26
for anything that can't swim away.
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造成一个完全致命的环境
10:28
So, what we end up with
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最后我们所得到的
10:30
is a microbial zoo
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就是一个微生物动物园
10:32
dominated by bacteria
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被细菌所控制
10:34
and jellyfish, as you see
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还有水母,你们看
10:36
on the left in front of you.
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在你们的左前方
10:38
And the only fishery left --
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仅存的一个渔场
10:40
and it is a commercial fishery --
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商业渔场
10:42
is the jellyfish fishery
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是个水母渔场
10:44
you see on the right, where there used to be prawns.
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再看你们的右边,曾经有过对虾
10:46
Even in Newfoundland
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甚至在纽芬兰岛
10:48
where we used to catch cod,
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我们曾经捕捞鳕鱼的地方
10:50
we now have a jellyfish fishery.
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现在也有一个水母渔场
10:53
And another version of this sort of thing
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这类状况的另一个翻版
10:55
is what is often called red tides
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就是我们经常所说的红潮
10:57
or toxic blooms.
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即有毒水华
10:59
That picture on the left is just staggering to me.
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这张照片简直触目惊心
11:02
I have talked about it a million times,
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我已经谈论过无数次了
11:04
but it's unbelievable.
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但它还是令人难以置信
11:06
In the upper right of that picture on the left
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在左边那张照片的右上角
11:08
is almost the Mississippi Delta,
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是密西西比三角洲
11:10
and the lower left of that picture
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那张照片的左下角
11:12
is the Texas-Mexico border.
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是德克萨斯和墨西哥交界处
11:14
You're looking at the entire
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你们所看到的是整个
11:16
northwestern Gulf of Mexico;
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墨西哥湾西北部
11:18
you're looking at one toxic
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你们所看到的是一个有毒的
11:20
dinoflagellate bloom that can kill fish,
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可以杀死鱼类的腰鞭毛虫水华
11:22
made by that beautiful little creature
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就是那些漂亮的小生物
11:24
on the lower right.
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在右下角
11:26
And in the upper right you see this
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在右上角你们可以看到
11:28
black sort of cloud
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黑色的云团
11:30
moving ashore.
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向岸边移动
11:32
That's the same species.
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那是同样的生物
11:34
And as it comes to shore and the wind blows,
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当它飘到岸边,风开始刮起
11:37
and little droplets of the water get into the air,
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小水珠进入空气
11:40
the emergency rooms of all the hospitals fill up
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所有医院的急症室就挤满了
11:43
with people with acute respiratory distress.
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急性呼吸窘迫症患者
11:45
And that's retirement homes
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那是老人院
11:47
on the west coast of Florida.
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在佛罗里达西海岸
11:49
A friend and I did this thing in Hollywood
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我和一个朋友在好莱坞演讲
11:51
we called Hollywood ocean night,
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我们称之为好莱坞海洋之夜
11:53
and I was trying to figure out how to
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我在琢磨着怎样
11:55
explain to actors what's going on.
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向演员们解释目前的状况
11:57
And I said,
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我说,
11:59
"So, imagine you're in a movie called 'Escape from Malibu'
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“好的,想象你身处一部叫做‘逃离马里布海滩’的电影
12:02
because all the beautiful people have moved
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因为所有的俊男美女都
12:04
to North Dakota, where it's clean and safe.
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搬到了干净安全的北达科它州
12:06
And the only people who are left there
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这儿剩下的
12:08
are the people who can't afford
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都是那些没钱
12:11
to move away from the coast,
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搬离海边的人
12:13
because the coast, instead of being paradise,
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因为海边不再是天堂
12:16
is harmful to your health."
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而会摧毁你的健康。”
12:18
And then this is amazing.
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这又是触目惊心。
12:20
It was when I was on holiday last early autumn in France.
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这是我去年初秋在法国度假时拍的
12:23
This is from the coast of Brittany,
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这是布里特尼海岸
12:25
which is being enveloped
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被覆盖在
12:27
in this green, algal slime.
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一片绿色海藻泥下
12:30
The reason that it attracted so much attention,
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它之所以引起这么多关注的原因
12:33
besides the fact that it's disgusting,
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除了它确实极其恶心之外
12:36
is that sea birds flying over it
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也是因为海鸟飞过时
12:38
are asphyxiated by the smell and die,
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因臭味窒息而亡
12:41
and a farmer died of it,
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有一个农民也这样死去,
12:43
and you can imagine the scandal that happened.
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你们可以想象有此而滋生的丑闻
12:45
And so there's this war
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一场战争
12:47
between the farmers
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在农民
12:49
and the fishermen about it all,
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和渔夫之间爆发
12:51
and the net result is that
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最后的结果是
12:53
the beaches of Brittany have to be bulldozed of this stuff
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布里特尼海滩必须定期地
12:56
on a regular basis.
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铲除这些东西
12:58
And then, of course, there's climate change,
332
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当然还有气候变化
13:00
and we all know about climate change.
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我们都知道气候变化
13:02
I guess the iconic figure of it
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我想最具标志性的形象就是
13:04
is the melting of the ice
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就是北极海域
13:06
in the Arctic Sea.
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冰层的融化
13:08
Think about the thousands and thousands of people who died
337
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想想那成千上万个
13:11
trying to find the Northwest Passage.
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为寻找西北航道而死去的人们
13:14
Well, the Northwest Passage is already there.
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现在西北航道就在那里
13:16
I think it's sort of funny;
340
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我觉得这有点滑稽
13:18
it's on the Siberian coast,
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它地处西伯利亚海岸
13:20
maybe the Russians will charge tolls.
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也许俄国政府应当征收过路费
13:23
The governments of the world
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全世界的政府
13:25
are taking this really seriously.
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都在严肃对待这件事情
13:27
The military of the Arctic nations
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北极附近国家的军队
13:30
is taking it really seriously.
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都在严肃对待这件事情
13:33
For all the denial of climate change
347
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不管各国领导人
13:35
by government leaders,
348
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如何否认气候变化
13:37
the CIA
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美国中情局
13:39
and the navies of Norway
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挪威海军
13:41
and the U.S. and Canada, whatever
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美国和加拿大的海军,等等
13:44
are busily thinking about
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都在忙着考虑
13:46
how they will secure their territory
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如何从他们的角度
13:49
in this inevitability
354
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在这个无法避免的情势下
13:52
from their point of view.
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守住自己的地盘
13:54
And, of course, Arctic communities are toast.
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当然,北极群落就完蛋了
13:56
The other kinds of effects of climate change --
357
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气候变化的其它效应--
13:58
this is coral bleaching. It's a beautiful picture, right?
358
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这是珊瑚白化。右边,是一张美丽的照片
14:00
All that white coral.
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那么多白色的珊瑚
14:02
Except it's supposed to be brown.
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只不过它们本来应该是棕色的。
14:05
What happens is that
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事情的来由是
14:07
the corals are a symbiosis,
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珊瑚是一种共生生物
14:09
and they have these little algal cells
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有些微小的藻类细胞
14:11
that live inside them.
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生存在其内部
14:13
And the algae give the corals sugar,
365
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藻类为珊瑚提供糖分
14:15
and the corals give the algae
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珊瑚为藻类提供
14:17
nutrients and protection.
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养分和保护
14:19
But when it gets too hot,
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但当温度过高时
14:21
the algae can't make the sugar.
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藻类就无法制造糖分
14:23
The corals say, "You cheated. You didn't pay your rent."
370
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珊瑚就说,”你这个骗子,你不交房租。“
14:25
They kick them out, and then they die.
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于是就把它们赶出去,于是它们就死了。
14:28
Not all of them die; some of them survive,
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不是所有都死;有些存活下来了。
14:30
some more are surviving,
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还有更多的在存活着,
14:32
but it's really bad news.
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但这确实是个坏消息。
14:34
To try and give you a sense of this,
375
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让我试着帮助你们来感知一下,
14:36
imagine you go camping in July
376
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想象你七月份去露营
14:39
somewhere in Europe or in North America,
377
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在欧洲或者北美的什么地方
14:42
and you wake up the next morning, and you look around you,
378
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第二天早上醒来,你环顾四周,
14:44
and you see that 80 percent of the trees,
379
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发现百分之八十的树
14:46
as far as you can see,
380
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在你视线所及范围内
14:48
have dropped their leaves and are standing there naked.
381
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都已经掉光了树叶,光秃秃地立在那儿
14:51
And you come home, and you discover
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你回到家,发现
14:53
that 80 percent of all the trees
383
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北美和欧洲
14:55
in North America and in Europe
384
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百分之八十的树
14:57
have dropped their leaves.
385
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都已经掉光了它们的叶子
14:59
And then you read in the paper a few weeks later,
386
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然后几个星期之后你在报纸上看到
15:01
"Oh, by the way, a quarter of those died."
387
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噢,顺便说一下,四分之一的树都死了。
15:04
Well, that's what happened in the Indian Ocean
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那就是印度洋所发生的状况
15:07
during the 1998 El Nino,
389
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在1998年厄尔尼诺现象过程中,
15:09
an area vastly greater
390
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在一个面积大大超过
15:11
than the size of North America and Europe,
391
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北美和欧洲的区域
15:13
when 80 percent of all the corals bleached
392
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百分之八十的珊瑚发生了白化
15:16
and a quarter of them died.
393
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四分之一珊瑚死去。
15:19
And then the really scary thing
394
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然而真正可怕的事情是
15:21
about all of this --
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所有这些
15:23
the overfishing, the pollution and the climate change --
396
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3000
过度捕捞,污染,和气候变化
15:26
is that each thing doesn't happen in a vacuum.
397
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每件事都并非发生在真空里,
15:29
But there are these, what we call, positive feedbacks,
398
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但是因为存在着所谓的积极反馈
15:32
the synergies among them
399
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它们之间的协同作用
15:34
that make the whole vastly greater
400
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使得整体效应远远大于
15:36
than the sum of the parts.
401
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局部的总和。
15:38
And the great scientific challenge
402
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最大的科学挑战
15:41
for people like me in thinking about all this,
403
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对于象我这样思考这些问题的人
15:44
is do we know how
404
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就是我们是否知道如何
15:46
to put Humpty Dumpty back together again?
405
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把摔碎的蛋形人重新修复?
15:49
I mean, because we, at this point, we can protect it.
406
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我是说,因为我们现在还可以保护它。
15:52
But what does that mean?
407
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但那意味着什么?
15:54
We really don't know.
408
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我们真的不知道
15:57
So what are the oceans going to be like
409
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那么在20或50年之后
16:00
in 20 or 50 years?
410
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海洋会是一副什么景象?
16:03
Well, there won't be any fish
411
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不会再有鱼
16:05
except for minnows,
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除了一些小鲦鱼,
16:07
and the water will be pretty dirty,
413
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海水会很肮脏
16:10
and all those kinds of things
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所有那些东西
16:12
and full of mercury, etc., etc.
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都充斥着水银,等等,等等
16:17
And dead zones will get bigger and bigger
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死亡区域会越变越大
16:19
and they'll start to merge,
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然后它们开始汇合
16:21
and we can imagine something like
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于是我们可以想象类似
16:23
the dead-zonification
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全球沿海地区的
16:25
of the global, coastal ocean.
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划分出死亡区域。
16:28
Then you sure won't want to eat fish that were raised in it,
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你肯定不会想吃那儿出产的鱼,
16:31
because it would be a kind of
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因为那简直就是
16:33
gastronomic Russian roulette.
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饮食的死亡赌博游戏
16:35
Sometimes you have a toxic bloom;
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有时你会碰上有毒水华
16:37
sometimes you don't.
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有时又没有
16:39
That doesn't sell.
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那是不会有市场的
16:41
The really scary things though
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但是真正可怕的
16:43
are the physical, chemical,
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是正在发生的物理的,化学的
16:46
oceanographic things that are happening.
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和海洋学的变化。
16:49
As the surface of the ocean gets warmer,
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当海洋表面温度升高,
16:52
the water is lighter when it's warmer,
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海水变轻,
16:54
it becomes harder and harder
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海洋变得越来越
16:56
to turn the ocean over.
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不易翻转。
16:58
We say it becomes
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我们称之为
17:00
more strongly stratified.
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越来越严重的层化
17:02
The consequence of that is that
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其后果是
17:04
all those nutrients
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所有的养分
17:06
that fuel the great anchoveta fisheries,
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那些供给大型鳀鱼渔场,
17:09
of the sardines of California
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加州沙丁渔场,
17:11
or in Peru or whatever,
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秘鲁或其它地方渔场的养分
17:14
those slow down
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都放慢了速度,
17:16
and those fisheries collapse.
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那些渔场就倒闭了。
17:18
And, at the same time,
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同时
17:20
water from the surface, which is rich in oxygen,
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表面氧气充足的海水
17:23
doesn't make it down
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无法下沉,
17:27
and the ocean turns into a desert.
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海洋就变成了沙漠。
17:30
So the question is: How are we all
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因此问题是:我们应该如何
17:32
going to respond to this?
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对此作出应对?
17:34
And we can do
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我们可以
17:36
all sorts of things to fix it,
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做各种事情来进行补救,
17:38
but in the final analysis,
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但最终,
17:40
the thing we really need to fix
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我们最需要补救的
17:42
is ourselves.
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是我们自己。
17:44
It's not about the fish; it's not about the pollution;
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这不是鱼,不是污染;
17:47
it's not about the climate change.
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也不是气候变化。
17:49
It's about us
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而是我们自己。
17:51
and our greed and our need for growth
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我们的贪婪和对增长的需求
17:54
and our inability to imagine a world
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以及我们无法想象
17:57
that is different from the selfish world
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一个不同于我们今天所生活的
17:59
we live in today.
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自私的世界。
18:01
So the question is: Will we respond to this or not?
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问题在于:我们是否将对此作出应对?
18:04
I would say that the future of life
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我要说生命的未来
18:06
and the dignity of human beings
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和人类的尊严
18:08
depends on our doing that.
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取决于我们作出回应。
18:10
Thank you. (Applause)
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谢谢。
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