Jeremy Jackson: How we wrecked the ocean

72,897 views ・ 2010-05-05

TED


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譯者: Crystal Tu 審譯者: Marie Wu
00:16
I'm an ecologist,
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我是生態學家,
00:18
mostly a coral reef ecologist.
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大多是做珊瑚礁生態研究。
00:20
I started out in Chesapeake Bay
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一開始我是從柴斯比克灣開始,
00:22
and went diving in the winter
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在寒冷的冬天潛入海水,
00:24
and became a tropical ecologist overnight.
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但一夜之間我成了熱帶生態學家,
00:27
And it was really a lot of fun
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這是一件很棒的事,
00:30
for about 10 years.
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大概持續了十年左右。
00:32
I mean, somebody pays you
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我是說,有人付錢請你
00:34
to go around and travel
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四處遊歷,
00:36
and look at some of the most
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尋找一些這世界上
00:38
beautiful places on the planet.
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最美麗的地方,
00:40
And that was what I did.
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而那就是我的工作。
00:43
And I ended up in Jamaica,
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最後我來到西印度群島的
00:45
in the West Indies,
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牙買加,
00:47
where the coral reefs were really
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那裡的珊瑚礁
00:49
among the most extraordinary, structurally,
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是我所見過最特別、
00:51
that I ever saw in my life.
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也是最完整的一個。
00:54
And this picture here,
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這張照片很有趣,
00:56
it's really interesting, it shows two things:
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它隱含了兩個涵意。
00:58
First of all, it's in black and white
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首先,這是黑白的,
01:00
because the water was so clear
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因為海水非常清澈,
01:02
and you could see so far,
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所以你可以看到很遠,
01:04
and film was so slow
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而且在1960和70年代初期,
01:06
in the 1960s and early 70s,
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照片還不普及,
01:08
you took pictures in black and white.
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所以只能拍黑白照片。
01:10
The other thing it shows you
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另外一個涵意是,
01:12
is that, although there's this beautiful
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雖然整個珊瑚森林
01:14
forest of coral,
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非常美麗,
01:16
there are no fish in that picture.
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在照片裡卻連隻魚都沒有。
01:19
Those reefs at Discovery Bay, Jamaica
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這些在牙買加發現灣的珊瑚礁,
01:22
were the most studied coral reefs
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是世界上近二十年來,被研究得
01:24
in the world for 20 years.
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最透徹的珊瑚礁,
01:26
We were the best and the brightest.
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我們有最好、最棒的珊瑚礁。
01:28
People came to study our reefs from Australia,
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還有人遠從澳洲來研究這些珊瑚礁,
01:31
which is sort of funny
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想想有點好笑,
01:33
because now we go to theirs.
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因為我們現在還得去他們那裡觀摩。
01:35
And the view of scientists
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科學家對於
01:38
about how coral reefs work, how they ought to be,
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珊瑚礁如何運作、演變的概念,
01:41
was based on these reefs
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全都來自於這些
01:43
without any fish.
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沒有魚的珊瑚礁。
01:45
Then, in 1980,
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1980年時,
01:47
there was a hurricane, Hurricane Allen.
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颶風艾倫來襲,
01:50
I put half the lab
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我把半間實驗室
01:52
up in my house.
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建在家裡。
01:54
The wind blew very strong.
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風非常強,
01:56
The waves were 25
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而浪有25到
01:59
to 50 feet high.
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50英呎(8~16公尺)高,
02:01
And the reefs disappeared, and new islands formed,
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然後珊瑚礁消失,形成新島嶼。
02:04
and we thought, "Well, we're real smart.
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我們想,「好吧,還好我們很聰明,
02:06
We know that hurricanes
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知道颶風
02:08
have always happened in the past."
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從以前就常常來襲。」
02:10
And we published a paper in Science,
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所以我們在《科學》期刊上發表了一篇論文,
02:12
the first time that anybody ever
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這是第一次有人報導
02:14
described the destruction
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大型颶風對珊瑚礁
02:16
on a coral reef by a major hurricane.
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所造成的破壞,
02:19
And we predicted what would happen,
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我們也預測了之後會發生什麼事。
02:21
and we got it all wrong.
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結果我們都錯了。
02:23
And the reason was
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真正的原因是因為
02:25
because of overfishing,
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過度捕撈,
02:28
and the fact that a last common grazer,
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連最後的掠食者
02:31
a sea urchin, died.
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海膽也消失了。
02:34
And within a few months
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而在幾個月之內,
02:36
after that sea urchin dying, the seaweed started to grow.
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海膽逐漸死亡,海藻便開始生長。
02:39
And that is the same reef;
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這是十五年前,
02:41
that's the same reef 15 years ago;
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同一個珊瑚礁的照片,
02:43
that's the same reef today.
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然後這是現在的珊瑚礁。
02:46
The coral reefs of the north coast of Jamaica
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牙買加北岸的珊瑚礁
02:49
have a few percent live coral cover
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只剩極少的珊瑚存活,
02:52
and a lot of seaweed and slime.
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其他大多是海藻或爛泥。
02:54
And that's more or less the story
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這或多或少就是
02:56
of the coral reefs of the Caribbean,
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加勒比海珊瑚礁的遭遇,
02:58
and increasingly, tragically,
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也是世界上其他更多、
03:01
the coral reefs worldwide.
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更可悲的珊瑚礁的遭遇。
03:03
Now, that's my little, depressing story.
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這是我個人哀傷的親身經歷,
03:06
All of us in our 60s and 70s
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而在60和70年代,很多人
03:09
have comparable depressing stories.
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都有類似的遭遇,
03:12
There are tens of thousands
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世界上還有成千上萬個
03:14
of those stories out there,
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這樣的故事。
03:16
and it's really hard to conjure up
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很難想像
03:18
much of a sense of well-being,
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一切會逐漸好轉過來,
03:20
because it just keeps getting worse.
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因為情況一直在惡化,
03:22
And the reason it keeps getting worse
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而會持續惡化的原因是,
03:24
is that after a natural catastrophe,
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在經過颶風
03:27
like a hurricane,
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這樣的自然災害後,
03:31
it used to be that there was
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本來應該會透過
03:33
some kind of successional sequence of recovery,
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消長演替而自然好轉的珊瑚礁,
03:36
but what's going on now is that
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現在則因為
03:39
overfishing and pollution and climate change
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漁業過度捕撈、污染還有氣候變遷等
03:42
are all interacting
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互相影響,
03:44
in a way that prevents that.
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而使自然消長無法進行。
03:46
And so I'm going to sort of go through
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所以我接下來會
03:48
and talk about those three
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一一解釋
03:50
kinds of things.
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這三件事情。
03:52
We hear a lot about
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(過度捕撈)大家都聽過很多
03:54
the collapse of cod.
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關於鱈魚捕撈業瓦解的事情,
03:56
It's difficult to imagine that
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很難想像有二次,
03:58
two, or some historians would say three world wars
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或者有些歷史學家說三次世界大戰,
04:02
were fought during the colonial era
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都是為了要控制鱈魚,
04:04
for the control of cod.
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而在殖民時期爆發。
04:06
Cod fed most of the people of Western Europe.
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鱈魚養活了西歐大部分的人口,
04:09
It fed the slaves
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也養活了
04:11
brought to the Antilles,
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從安地列斯群島來的奴隸。
04:14
the song "Jamaica Farewell" --
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"再會牙買加"這首歌中有一句:
04:16
"Ackee rice salt fish are nice" --
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"阿開木果、米飯、鹹魚亦可口"
04:18
is an emblem of the importance
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便象徵著
04:21
of salt cod from northeastern Canada.
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加拿大東北鹽漬鱈魚的重要性。
04:24
It all collapsed in the 80s and the 90s:
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但在80和90年代整個鱈魚漁業瓦解,
04:27
35,000 people lost their jobs.
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三萬五千人失業,
04:30
And that was the beginning
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而這只是一連串
04:32
of a kind of serial depletion
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資源耗竭的開端,
04:34
from bigger and tastier species
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原本你有好吃的大魚,
04:36
to smaller and not-so-tasty species,
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後來只能吃不那麼可口的小魚;
04:39
from species that were near to home
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原本只捕撈鄰近的漁種,
04:41
to species that were all around the world,
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後來開始捕撈世界各地的其他漁種,
04:44
and what have you.
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這都是我們自己造成的。
04:46
It's a little hard to understand that,
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這或許不大容易理解,
04:48
because you can go to a Costco in the United States
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因為在美國,你可以在好市多
04:51
and buy cheap fish.
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買到便宜的魚,
04:53
You ought to read the label to find out where it came from,
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你得從標籤上才能知道這魚是從哪來的,
04:55
but it's still cheap,
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但那還是很便宜,
04:57
and everybody thinks it's okay.
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所以大家覺得這沒什麼。
04:59
It's hard to communicate this,
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我覺得很難對大眾講清楚這個道理,
05:01
and one way that I think is really interesting
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但我覺得可以舉休閒釣魚這個有趣的例子,
05:04
is to talk about sport fish,
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來讓大家瞭解這個道理,
05:07
because people like to go out and catch fish.
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因為大家都喜歡到戶外抓魚,
05:10
It's one of those things.
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這便是其中之一。
05:12
This picture here shows the trophy fish,
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這張照片是大獎魚,
05:15
the biggest fish caught
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也就是參賽者裡所釣到最大隻的魚,
05:17
by people who pay a lot of money
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這些參賽者會花大把銀子
05:19
to get on a boat,
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去搭船,
05:21
go to a place off of Key West in Florida,
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到佛羅里達州的西嶼某處,
05:24
drink a lot of beer,
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拼命灌啤酒、
05:26
throw a lot of hooks and lines into the water,
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下很多魚鉤,
05:28
come back with the biggest and the best fish,
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然後帶著最大最好的魚回來,
05:31
and the champion trophy fish
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而最大的冠軍魚,
05:33
are put on this board, where people take a picture,
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會被放到這板子上給人拍照,
05:36
and this guy is obviously
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而這傢伙顯然
05:38
really excited about that fish.
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非常興奮。
05:41
Well, that's what it's like now,
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也許現在是這樣,
05:43
but this is what it was like in the 1950s
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但這是1950年時
05:45
from the same boat in the same place
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從同一條船上,
05:48
on the same board on the same dock.
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在同一個地點同一個碼頭的同一塊板子上拍的
05:51
The trophy fish
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大獎魚,
05:53
were so big
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那條魚超大,
05:55
that you couldn't put any of those small fish up on it.
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大到其他的小魚都放不下,
05:58
And the average size trophy fish
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那時大獎魚的平均重量
06:00
weighed 250 to 300 pounds, goliath grouper,
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是250到300磅,像巨人哥利亞一樣。
06:03
and if you wanted to go out and kill something,
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你如果想到外面去捕點魚,
06:05
you could pretty much count on
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便很有可能會
06:07
being able to catch one of those fish.
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釣到一條像這樣的魚,
06:09
And they tasted really good.
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而且真的很好吃。
06:11
And people paid less in 1950 dollars
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在1950年代要釣到這樣的魚,
06:14
to catch that
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比現在便宜多了,
06:16
than what people pay now
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而現在只能抓到
06:18
to catch those little, tiny fish.
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那些小小的魚,
06:21
And that's everywhere.
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到處都只能看到這些小魚。
06:23
It's not just the fish, though,
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消失的
06:25
that are disappearing.
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不只是魚而已。
06:27
Industrial fishing uses big stuff,
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商業捕撈用的是大傢伙、
06:30
big machinery.
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大機具,
06:32
We use nets that are 20 miles long.
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他們用的漁網有20哩(32公里)長,
06:34
We use longlines
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他們也使用上面有
06:36
that have one million or two million hooks.
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一兩百萬個魚鉤的延繩釣線,
06:39
And we trawl,
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還有底拖網,
06:41
which means to take something
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也就是把一個
06:43
the size of a tractor trailer truck
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大得像連結車、
06:45
that weighs thousands and thousands of pounds,
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重達幾千磅的東西
06:48
put it on a big chain,
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裝上鐵鍊,
06:50
and drag it across the sea floor
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然後拖過海底,
06:52
to stir up the bottom and catch the fish.
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把底部亂攪一通來捕魚。
06:55
Think of it as
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這就像是
06:58
being kind of the bulldozing of a city
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摧毀一整個城市
07:00
or of a forest,
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或森林一樣,
07:02
because it clears it away.
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一掃而空,
07:04
And the habitat destruction
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造成難以想像
07:06
is unbelievable.
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的棲地破壞。
07:08
This is a photograph,
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這是
07:10
a typical photograph,
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世界上典型
07:12
of what the continental shelves
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大陸棚區
07:14
of the world look like.
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的照片,
07:16
You can see the rows in the bottom,
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你可以看到海底有一條條的痕跡,
07:19
the way you can see the rows
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那一條條的痕跡就像是
07:21
in a field that has just been plowed
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剛犁好田的土地,
07:23
to plant corn.
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要來種玉米。
07:25
What that was, was a forest of sponges and coral,
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而這從前是海綿和珊瑚的叢林,
07:28
which is a critical habitat
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是魚類生長發育的
07:30
for the development of fish.
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重要棲地,
07:32
What it is now is mud,
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現在變成一堆泥土。
07:35
and the area of the ocean floor
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整個海底被破壞,
07:38
that has been transformed from forest
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從森林變成
07:41
to level mud, to parking lot,
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泥地,再變成停車場,
07:43
is equivalent to the entire area
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整個被破壞的面積相當於
07:46
of all the forests
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人類歷史上
07:48
that have ever been cut down
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曾在地球上
07:50
on all of the earth
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砍伐過的
07:52
in the history of humanity.
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所有森林的總面積。
07:54
We've managed to do that
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而這已經持續了
07:56
in the last 100 to 150 years.
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一百到一百五十年。
08:00
We tend to think of oil spills
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(污染)我們常會先想到漏油
08:02
and mercury
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或水銀,
08:04
and we hear a lot about plastic these days.
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還有最近常聽到的塑膠產品,
08:06
And all of that stuff is really disgusting,
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這些東西都很討人厭,
08:08
but what's really insidious
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但最棘手的是
08:10
is the biological pollution that happens
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生物污染,
08:13
because of the magnitude of the shifts
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會使整個生態體系,
08:16
that it causes
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產生大規模
08:18
to entire ecosystems.
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的轉變。
08:20
And I'm going to just talk very briefly
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我在這裡只簡單講
08:22
about two kinds of biological pollution:
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兩種生物污染,
08:25
one is introduced species
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一個是外來種,
08:27
and the other is what comes from nutrients.
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另外一個則因養分滋養而大量繁殖。
08:30
So this is the infamous
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這是惡名昭彰的
08:32
Caulerpa taxifolia,
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Caulerpa taxifolia(羽毛藻),
08:34
the so-called killer algae.
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又叫殺手藻,
08:37
A book was written about it.
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有一本書專門在講這種藻類。
08:39
It's a bit of an embarrassment.
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尷尬的是,
08:41
It was accidentally released
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這是不小心從
08:43
from the aquarium in Monaco,
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摩納哥的水族館裡跑出來的。
08:45
it was bred to be cold tolerant
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這是人類培養的耐冷藻類,
08:48
to have in peoples aquaria.
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可以養在水族箱裡,
08:50
It's very pretty,
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很漂亮,
08:52
and it has rapidly started
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一下子就大量繁殖起來,
08:54
to overgrow
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覆蓋了
08:56
the once very rich
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曾經有
08:58
biodiversity of the
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豐富多樣性物種的
09:00
northwestern Mediterranean.
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地中海西北海岸。
09:02
I don't know how many of you remember the movie
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我不知道有多少人還記得
09:04
"The Little Shop of Horrors,"
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《異形奇花》這部電影,
09:06
but this is the plant of "The Little Shop of Horrors."
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這藻類就是裡面那朵花,
09:09
But, instead of devouring the people in the shop,
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但它不會吃掉店裡的人,
09:12
what it's doing is overgrowing
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它反而是拼命繁殖,
09:14
and smothering
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然後把所有
09:16
virtually all of the bottom-dwelling life
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地中海西北岸
09:19
of the entire northwestern
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的底棲生物
09:22
Mediterranean Sea.
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都給悶死。
09:24
We don't know anything that eats it,
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我們不知道有什麼生物會吃它們,
09:26
we're trying to do all sorts of genetics
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也試著用遺傳工程
09:28
and figure out something that could be done,
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或是其他任何方法來解決,
09:31
but, as it stands, it's the monster from hell,
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但是它們還在,像是從地獄來的怪物,
09:34
about which nobody knows what to do.
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沒人知道該拿它們怎麼辦。
09:37
Now another form of pollution
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另外一種污染則是
09:40
that's biological pollution
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因為養分過多所造成的
09:42
is what happens from excess nutrients.
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生物污染。
09:44
The green revolution,
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農業改革後,
09:46
all of this artificial nitrogen fertilizer, we use too much of it.
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人類大量使用化學氮肥,
09:49
It's subsidized, which is one of the reasons we used too much of it.
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政府還會補助,這也是為什麼農民總是用太多肥料的原因。
09:52
It runs down the rivers,
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剩下的肥料則被河流帶走,
09:54
and it feeds the plankton,
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滋養浮游植物,
09:56
the little microscopic plant cells
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就是生長在近岸海域裡的
09:58
in the coastal water.
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微小植物。
10:00
But since we ate all the oysters
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但我們已經把牡蠣
10:02
and we ate all the fish that would eat the plankton,
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還有會吃浮游植物的魚給吃光了,
10:04
there's nothing to eat the plankton
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所以沒有生物會吃浮游植物,
10:06
and there's more and more of it,
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浮游植物不斷累積,
10:08
so it dies of old age,
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他們在很老的時候才會死掉,
10:10
which is unheard of for plankton.
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這對浮游植物來說是很少見的情形。
10:12
And when it dies, it falls to the bottom
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浮游植物死後,會沈降到海底,
10:14
and then it rots,
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開始腐化,
10:16
which means that bacteria break it down.
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也就是被細菌分解;
10:18
And in the process
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在這整個過程中,
10:20
they use up all the oxygen,
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會消耗掉所有氧氣,
10:22
and in using up all the oxygen
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當氧氣用完時,
10:24
they make the environment utterly lethal
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對無法游走的生物來說,
10:26
for anything that can't swim away.
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那裡就成了足以致命的危險地帶。
10:28
So, what we end up with
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結果那裡就變成
10:30
is a microbial zoo
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微生物的天堂,
10:32
dominated by bacteria
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由細菌
10:34
and jellyfish, as you see
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和水母主宰,就如同
10:36
on the left in front of you.
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左邊這張照片一樣。
10:38
And the only fishery left --
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這時唯一剩下的漁業,
10:40
and it is a commercial fishery --
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唯一還有利可圖的漁業,
10:42
is the jellyfish fishery
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就是水母捕撈,
10:44
you see on the right, where there used to be prawns.
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像右邊這張,以前這裡是抓明蝦的。
10:46
Even in Newfoundland
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甚至在紐芬蘭,
10:48
where we used to catch cod,
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以前抓鱈魚的漁場,
10:50
we now have a jellyfish fishery.
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現在也在捕水母。
10:53
And another version of this sort of thing
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另一個類似的例子是
10:55
is what is often called red tides
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人們所稱的紅潮,
10:57
or toxic blooms.
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或是有毒藻華。
10:59
That picture on the left is just staggering to me.
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這張照片嚇了我一大跳,
11:02
I have talked about it a million times,
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我談過紅潮至少上百萬次,
11:04
but it's unbelievable.
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但還是很難令人相信。
11:06
In the upper right of that picture on the left
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左邊這張照片的右上方,
11:08
is almost the Mississippi Delta,
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是密西西比河三角洲,
11:10
and the lower left of that picture
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左下方則是
11:12
is the Texas-Mexico border.
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德州以及墨西哥邊界。
11:14
You're looking at the entire
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你看到的是整個
11:16
northwestern Gulf of Mexico;
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墨西哥灣的西北部,
11:18
you're looking at one toxic
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還有能殺死魚類的
11:20
dinoflagellate bloom that can kill fish,
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有毒甲藻藻華,
11:22
made by that beautiful little creature
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他們是由右下方那美麗、
11:24
on the lower right.
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可愛的小生物所製造的。
11:26
And in the upper right you see this
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在右上方,
11:28
black sort of cloud
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你會看到一片像烏雲的東西,
11:30
moving ashore.
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正在靠近海岸,
11:32
That's the same species.
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他們是同一種生物。
11:34
And as it comes to shore and the wind blows,
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而當它們靠近岸邊,風一吹,
11:37
and little droplets of the water get into the air,
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就會把這些小水滴隨風帶走,
11:40
the emergency rooms of all the hospitals fill up
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然後急診室裡就會擠滿
11:43
with people with acute respiratory distress.
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患有急性呼吸窘迫症的人。
11:45
And that's retirement homes
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這是佛羅里達州西岸
11:47
on the west coast of Florida.
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的退休老人住宅,
11:49
A friend and I did this thing in Hollywood
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我和我朋友曾一起辦過
11:51
we called Hollywood ocean night,
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好萊塢海洋之夜,
11:53
and I was trying to figure out how to
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我們想讓演員們了解
11:55
explain to actors what's going on.
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海洋到底發生了什麼事,
11:57
And I said,
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我說:
11:59
"So, imagine you're in a movie called 'Escape from Malibu'
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「想像你在一部叫「馬里布大逃亡」的電影裡,
12:02
because all the beautiful people have moved
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那些美麗的人
12:04
to North Dakota, where it's clean and safe.
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都搬到北達科他,因為那裡乾淨又安全,
12:06
And the only people who are left there
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而留下來的人則
12:08
are the people who can't afford
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都是因為負擔不起,
12:11
to move away from the coast,
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所以才無法從海邊搬走,
12:13
because the coast, instead of being paradise,
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因為曾經是美麗天堂的海灘,
12:16
is harmful to your health."
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現在變成有害健康的海灘了。」
12:18
And then this is amazing.
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這真的很驚人,
12:20
It was when I was on holiday last early autumn in France.
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我去年秋天在法國渡假的時候就有碰到,
12:23
This is from the coast of Brittany,
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這是布列塔尼海岸,
12:25
which is being enveloped
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整個海岸都被
12:27
in this green, algal slime.
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綠色黏呼呼的藻類包圍起來。
12:30
The reason that it attracted so much attention,
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之所以會引起這麼多的注意,
12:33
besides the fact that it's disgusting,
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是因為除了很噁心之外,
12:36
is that sea birds flying over it
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海鳥飛過去
12:38
are asphyxiated by the smell and die,
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還會因太臭而窒息死亡,
12:41
and a farmer died of it,
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而且還死了一個農夫,
12:43
and you can imagine the scandal that happened.
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所以你可以想像會變成怎樣的醜聞。
12:45
And so there's this war
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農民和漁民
12:47
between the farmers
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為了這件事情,
12:49
and the fishermen about it all,
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爭執不休,
12:51
and the net result is that
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結果就是
12:53
the beaches of Brittany have to be bulldozed of this stuff
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得定期把這東西
12:56
on a regular basis.
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從布列塔尼海灘鏟走。
12:58
And then, of course, there's climate change,
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當然還有氣候變遷,
13:00
and we all know about climate change.
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大家都知道氣候變遷,
13:02
I guess the iconic figure of it
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我猜最有代表性的
13:04
is the melting of the ice
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大概就是北極海冰融化
13:06
in the Arctic Sea.
336
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的那張照片。
13:08
Think about the thousands and thousands of people who died
337
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想想有多少人為了
13:11
trying to find the Northwest Passage.
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尋找西北航道而喪失性命,
13:14
Well, the Northwest Passage is already there.
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嗯,現在西北航道已經在那裡了。
13:16
I think it's sort of funny;
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這有點好笑,
13:18
it's on the Siberian coast,
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因為那是在西伯利亞海岸,
13:20
maybe the Russians will charge tolls.
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所以俄羅斯可能會收過路費。
13:23
The governments of the world
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世界各國
13:25
are taking this really seriously.
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都很重視這個問題,
13:27
The military of the Arctic nations
345
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尤其是北極區內各國
13:30
is taking it really seriously.
346
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的軍事機構。
13:33
For all the denial of climate change
347
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雖然政府首長
13:35
by government leaders,
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都否認有氣候變遷,
13:37
the CIA
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但挪威、美國
13:39
and the navies of Norway
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和加拿大等國的中情局
13:41
and the U.S. and Canada, whatever
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以及海軍,
13:44
are busily thinking about
352
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都不停地從自己國家
13:46
how they will secure their territory
353
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的角度思考,
13:49
in this inevitability
354
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在這無可避免的情況下,
13:52
from their point of view.
355
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要如何保衛領土。
13:54
And, of course, Arctic communities are toast.
356
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當然,北極圈的居民早就已經輸了。
13:56
The other kinds of effects of climate change --
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氣候變遷的另外一個影響,
13:58
this is coral bleaching. It's a beautiful picture, right?
358
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是珊瑚白化。這張照片很美,沒錯,
14:00
All that white coral.
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全是白化的珊瑚,
14:02
Except it's supposed to be brown.
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他們本來應該是褐色的。
14:05
What happens is that
361
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實情是,
14:07
the corals are a symbiosis,
362
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這些珊瑚是共生體,
14:09
and they have these little algal cells
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有一些小小的藻類細胞
14:11
that live inside them.
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生活在珊瑚體內,
14:13
And the algae give the corals sugar,
365
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藻類供給珊瑚醣份,
14:15
and the corals give the algae
366
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然後珊瑚則提供
14:17
nutrients and protection.
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養分和保護給這些藻類;
14:19
But when it gets too hot,
368
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但太熱的時候,
14:21
the algae can't make the sugar.
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藻類就不會產生醣份,
14:23
The corals say, "You cheated. You didn't pay your rent."
370
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珊瑚說:「你這騙子!你沒有付房租」,
14:25
They kick them out, and then they die.
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就把他們踢出去,然後珊瑚就死了。
14:28
Not all of them die; some of them survive,
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並不是所有珊瑚都會死掉,
14:30
some more are surviving,
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有些會活下來,
14:32
but it's really bad news.
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但這實在是個壞消息。
14:34
To try and give you a sense of this,
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為了讓你們對這稍微有點概念,
14:36
imagine you go camping in July
376
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想像一下你在七月的時候,
14:39
somewhere in Europe or in North America,
377
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到歐洲或北美某處露營,
14:42
and you wake up the next morning, and you look around you,
378
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第二天早上醒來,你看看四周,
14:44
and you see that 80 percent of the trees,
379
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發現視野所及
14:46
as far as you can see,
380
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八成的樹,
14:48
have dropped their leaves and are standing there naked.
381
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葉子都掉光了,光禿禿的。
14:51
And you come home, and you discover
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你回家以後發現,
14:53
that 80 percent of all the trees
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整個北美和歐洲,
14:55
in North America and in Europe
384
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八成以上的樹
14:57
have dropped their leaves.
385
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葉子全都掉光了;
14:59
And then you read in the paper a few weeks later,
386
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然後幾週後你在報紙上看到,
15:01
"Oh, by the way, a quarter of those died."
387
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喔,有四分之一的樹已經死了。
15:04
Well, that's what happened in the Indian Ocean
388
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這就是印度洋在1998年聖嬰現象時,
15:07
during the 1998 El Nino,
389
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所發生的事情,
15:09
an area vastly greater
390
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這個區域
15:11
than the size of North America and Europe,
391
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比北美加上歐洲還要大,
15:13
when 80 percent of all the corals bleached
392
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有八成的珊瑚白化,
15:16
and a quarter of them died.
393
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而四分之一的珊瑚死亡。
15:19
And then the really scary thing
394
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然而真正可怕的
15:21
about all of this --
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是把這些全部加在一起:
15:23
the overfishing, the pollution and the climate change --
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過度捕撈、污染還有氣候變遷,
15:26
is that each thing doesn't happen in a vacuum.
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這些都不是憑空發生的,
15:29
But there are these, what we call, positive feedbacks,
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但他們卻會互相助長氣勢。
15:32
the synergies among them
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他們加在一起的綜效,
15:34
that make the whole vastly greater
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影響程度遠大於
15:36
than the sum of the parts.
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各自獨立加總的總和。
15:38
And the great scientific challenge
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對於我們科學家來說,
15:41
for people like me in thinking about all this,
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思考這些問題是很大的科學挑戰,
15:44
is do we know how
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我們是否知道,
15:46
to put Humpty Dumpty back together again?
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怎麼把支離破碎的碎片拼湊起來?
15:49
I mean, because we, at this point, we can protect it.
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我是說,就現階段來講,我們還可以保護海洋,
15:52
But what does that mean?
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但這又表示什麼?
15:54
We really don't know.
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我們真的不知道。
15:57
So what are the oceans going to be like
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海洋在未來的20到50年內,
16:00
in 20 or 50 years?
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究竟會變成什麼樣子呢?
16:03
Well, there won't be any fish
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海裡大概會只剩
16:05
except for minnows,
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一些小魚吧,
16:07
and the water will be pretty dirty,
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海水會變得很髒,
16:10
and all those kinds of things
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還充滿像是水銀
16:12
and full of mercury, etc., etc.
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還有其他類似的東西等等。
16:17
And dead zones will get bigger and bigger
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海洋死區會變得越來越大,
16:19
and they'll start to merge,
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變得可以互相合併,
16:21
and we can imagine something like
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我們可以想像海洋的
16:23
the dead-zonification
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「死區化」,
16:25
of the global, coastal ocean.
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會在全球和近岸海域發生。
16:28
Then you sure won't want to eat fish that were raised in it,
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你當然不會想吃那裡面的魚,
16:31
because it would be a kind of
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因為那簡直是
16:33
gastronomic Russian roulette.
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在玩食物的俄羅斯輪盤一樣,
16:35
Sometimes you have a toxic bloom;
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有時候會發生有毒藻華,
16:37
sometimes you don't.
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有時候又沒有,
16:39
That doesn't sell.
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那是賣不出去的。
16:41
The really scary things though
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真正可怕的事情是,
16:43
are the physical, chemical,
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目前海洋環境裡正在發生的
16:46
oceanographic things that are happening.
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物理、化學變化,
16:49
As the surface of the ocean gets warmer,
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當海洋表層變暖後,
16:52
the water is lighter when it's warmer,
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海水就會變輕,
16:54
it becomes harder and harder
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使得海水循環
16:56
to turn the ocean over.
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變得越來越困難,
16:58
We say it becomes
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也就是我們說的
17:00
more strongly stratified.
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明顯分層。
17:02
The consequence of that is that
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結果就是,
17:04
all those nutrients
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原來會進入
17:06
that fuel the great anchoveta fisheries,
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秘魯鯷魚漁場、
17:09
of the sardines of California
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加州沙丁魚漁場
17:11
or in Peru or whatever,
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等等的養份,
17:14
those slow down
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全都慢了下來,
17:16
and those fisheries collapse.
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然後這些漁場就瓦解了。
17:18
And, at the same time,
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同時,
17:20
water from the surface, which is rich in oxygen,
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表層充滿氧氣的海水,
17:23
doesn't make it down
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不會下沉,
17:27
and the ocean turns into a desert.
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海洋就變成了沙漠。
17:30
So the question is: How are we all
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現在的問題是:
17:32
going to respond to this?
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我們該怎麼做?
17:34
And we can do
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我們可以
17:36
all sorts of things to fix it,
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做很多事情來改善這個狀況,
17:38
but in the final analysis,
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但總括來說,
17:40
the thing we really need to fix
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我們需要改變的
17:42
is ourselves.
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其實是自己。
17:44
It's not about the fish; it's not about the pollution;
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這和魚無關,也和污染無關,
17:47
it's not about the climate change.
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更不是因為氣候變遷,
17:49
It's about us
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而是我們。
17:51
and our greed and our need for growth
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我們貪婪、追求成長,
17:54
and our inability to imagine a world
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我們從沒想過
17:57
that is different from the selfish world
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不要和現在一樣地
17:59
we live in today.
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自私自利。
18:01
So the question is: Will we respond to this or not?
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所以現在的問題是:我們該不該做出改變?
18:04
I would say that the future of life
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我想生物的未來
18:06
and the dignity of human beings
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和人類的尊嚴,
18:08
depends on our doing that.
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都看這個決定了。
18:10
Thank you. (Applause)
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謝謝。
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