Climate Change Is Happening. Here's How We Adapt | Alice Bows-Larkin | TED Talks

翻译人员: Xiaomeng Tang 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

Over our lifetimes,

在我们的一生中，

we've all contributed to climate change.

我们每个人的行为都影响了气候变化。

Actions, choices and behaviors

我们的日常行为和选择

will have led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

都会导致温室气体排放的增加。

And I think that that's quite a powerful thought.

我认为这种想法很有道理。

But it does have the potential to make us feel guilty

但它的确有可能让我们感到内疚，

when we think about decisions we might have made

想一想我们做过的关于去哪里

around where to travel to,

旅行的决定，

how often and how,

旅行的频率以及方式。

about the energy that we choose to use

关于我们选择在家里或者办公室里

in our homes or in our workplaces,

使用什么能源，

or quite simply the lifestyles that we lead and enjoy.

或仅仅只是我们所倡导和享受的生活方式。

But we can also turn that thought on its head,

但我们也可以从全新的角度来 看待这一想法，

and think that if we've had such a profound

也就是说，我们已经对气候产生了

but a negative impact on our climate already,

极其深刻且负面的影响，

then we have an opportunity to influence the amount of future climate change

那么我们就有机会去 影响未来的气候变化，

that we will need to adapt to.

而我们也必须能够适应这种变化。

So we have a choice.

所以我们面临一个选择。

We can either choose to start to take climate change seriously,

我们可以选择开始认真对待气候变化，

and significantly cut and mitigate our greenhouse gas emissions,

大幅减少温室气体排放量，

and then we will have to adapt to less of the climate change impacts in future.

以减少未来气候变化带来的影响。

Alternatively, we can continue to really ignore the climate change problem.

或者我们也可以继续忽略气候变化问题，

But if we do that, we are also choosing

但如果这样做，我们同时也就选择了

to adapt to very much more powerful climate impacts in future.

在未来去适应更强的气候变化。

And not only that.

不仅如此，

As people who live in countries with high per capita emissions,

作为生活在高人均排放国家的居民，

we're making that choice on behalf of others as well.

我们也在代表其他地区的人民做出选择。

But the choice that we don't have

但我们无法选择的是，

is a no climate change future.

一个没有气候变化的未来。

Over the last two decades,

在过去的20年里，

our government negotiators and policymakers have been coming together

我们的政府谈判代表和政策制定者一起

to discuss climate change,

讨论了气候变化的问题，

and they've been focused on avoiding a two-degree centigrade warming

他们聚焦在避免高于前工业化水平

above pre-industrial levels.

2℃的升温。

That's the temperature that's associated with dangerous impacts

这一温度在一系列不同指标上

across a range of different indicators,

对人类，对环境，

to humans and to the environment.

都有着危险的影响。

So two degrees centigrade constitutes dangerous climate change.

所以这2℃与危险的气候变化紧密相关。

But dangerous climate change can be subjective.

但危险的气候变化也可以很主观。

So if we think about an extreme weather event

试想一个极端天气事件，

that might happen in some part of the world,

发生在世界的某个地方。

and if that happens in a part of the world where there is good infrastructure,

如果这个地方有着良好的基础设施，

where there are people that are well-insured and so on,

当地的人们都有着很好的保障等等，

then that impact can be disruptive.

那这影响可能会是破坏性的。

It can cause upset, it could cause cost.

它可能会产生不必要的麻烦和经济损失，

It could even cause some deaths.

甚至可能会导致一些人死亡。

But if that exact same weather event happens in a part of the world

但是如果同样的天气事件 发生在世界上的某地，

where there is poor infrastructure,

那里的基础设施很糟糕，

or where people are not well-insured,

或者人民的生命财产 没有很好的保障，

or they're not having good support networks,

或者他们没有很好的社会支持网络，

then that same climate change impact could be devastating.

那同样的气候变化可能会 带来毁灭性的影响。

It could cause a significant loss of home,

它可能会导致大量人流离失所，

but it could also cause significant amounts of death.

也可能会导致大量人员的死亡。

So this is a graph of the CO2 emissions at the left-hand side

这幅图左侧是由化石燃料和工业生产

from fossil fuel and industry,

产生的二氧化碳排放量，

and time from before the Industrial Revolution

时间段是从工业革命前

out towards the present day.

直到现在。

And what's immediately striking about this

值得注意的是，

is that emissions have been growing exponentially.

排放量在以指数级增长。

If we focus in on a shorter period of time from 1950,

如果我们把目光聚焦到1950年之后，

we have established in 1988

我们在1988年成立了

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

政府间气候变化专业委员会。

the Rio Earth Summit in 1992,

1992年在里约热内卢召开了地球峰会，

then rolling on a few years, in 2009 we had the Copenhagen Accord,

几年后于2009年签订了哥本哈根协定，

where it established avoiding a two-degree temperature rise

在符合科学和保持公正的基础上

in keeping with the science and on the basis of equity.

来避免这2℃的升温。

And then in 2012, we had the Rio+20 event.

之后在2012年我们召开了里约+20会议。

And all the way through, during all of these meetings

这一路走来，经过所有这些会议

and many others as well,

和各种其他活动，

emissions have continued to rise.

排放量却依旧持续增长。

And if we focus on our historical emission trend in recent years,

而如果我们聚焦在近几年的排放趋势，

and we put that together with our understanding

结合我们对于

of the direction of travel in our global economy,

全球经济走向的理解，

then we are much more on track

那么我们其实正在迈向

for a four-degree centigrade global warming

4℃的全球变暖趋势，

than we are for the two-degree centigrade.

而并非2℃。

Now, let's just pause for a moment

现在让我们暂停并

and think about this four-degree global average temperature.

思考一下这个4℃的全球平均升温。

Most of our planet is actually made up of the sea.

地球上大部分地区是海洋。

Now, because the sea has a greater thermal inertia than the land,

因为海洋比陆地有更大的热惯性，

the average temperatures over land are actually going to be higher

所以陆地上的平均温度

than they are over the sea.

会比海上的平均温度高。

The second thing is that we as human beings don't experience

还有就是我们作为人类不会体验到

global average temperatures.

全球的平均温度。

We experience hot days, cold days,

我们会体验到热天，冷天，

雨天，特别是如果你和我一样 住在曼彻斯特。

rainy days, especially if you live in Manchester like me.

So now put yourself in a city center.

想象一下你身处一个城市中心。

Imagine somewhere in the world:

在世界的某个地方：

Mumbai, Beijing, New York, London.

孟买，北京，纽约，伦敦。

It's the hottest day that you've ever experienced.

这是你经历过的最热的一天。

There's sun beating down,

火辣辣的太阳直射下来，

there's concrete and glass all around you.

混凝土和玻璃建筑环绕着你。

Now imagine that same day --

想象在同样的一天——

but it's six, eight, maybe 10 to 12 degrees warmer

但是要比当天的热浪高出

on that day during that heat wave.

6，8，甚至10-12℃。

That's the kind of thing we're going to experience

这就是我们即将要经历的

under a four-degree global average temperature scenario.

全球平均升温4℃的情景。

And the problem with these extremes,

这些极端气候带来的问题

and not just the temperature extremes,

不仅仅是极端的温度，

but also the extremes in terms of storms and other climate impacts,

还有极端的风暴以及其他气候影响，

is our infrastructure is just not set up to deal with these sorts of events.

而我们建造的基础设施还并不能 承受这些极端事件。

So our roads and our rail networks

我们的道路和铁路网络

have been designed to last for a long time

被设计成只在一定程度的影响下

and withstand only certain amounts of impacts

才能经久耐用，

in different parts of the world.

世界各地都是如此。

And this is going to be extremely challenged.

而这将面临极度的挑战。

Our power stations are expected to be cooled by water

我们的发电站本来是靠水来冷却到

to a certain temperature to remain effective and resilient.

一个特定的温度， 来保持设备的有效性和弹性。

And our buildings are designed to be comfortable

我们的建筑是被设计成 在一定的温度范围内

within a particular temperature range.

才能使人感到舒适。

And this is all going to be significantly challenged

而这些都将在4℃升温的情景下

under a four-degree-type scenario.

面临极大的挑战。

Our infrastructure has not been designed to cope with this.

而我们的基础设施还 无法应对这些挑战。

So if we go back, also thinking about four degrees,

如果我们再想想4℃的升温，

it's not just the direct impacts,

这些影响并不是直接的，

but also some indirect impacts.

还有一些间接影响。

So if we take food security, for example.

比如说食品安全。

Maize and wheat yields

玉米和小麦的产量

in some parts of the world

在世界的某些地方

are expected to be up to 40 percent lower

最高将会有40%的下降，

under a four-degree scenario,

在4℃升温的情景下，

rice up to 30 percent lower.

大米的产量最高会有30%的下降。

This will be absolutely devastating for global food security.

这对全球食品安全绝对是灾难性的。

So all in all, the kinds of impacts anticipated

总之在升温4℃的情况下

under this four-degree centigrade scenario

设想出来的种种影响，

are going to be incompatible with global organized living.

都将会和全球有序的生存模式相矛盾。

So back to our trajectories and our graphs of four degrees and two degrees.

回到2℃和4℃的图表中来，

Is it reasonable still to focus on the two-degree path?

专注于2℃的路径是否还是合理的？

There are quite a lot of my colleagues and other scientists

有许多我的同事和其他科学家

who would say that it's now too late to avoid a two-degree warming.

也许会说现在已经无法避免2℃升温了。

But I would just like to draw on my own research

但根据我自己在

on energy systems, on food systems,

能源系统，食品系统，

aviation and also shipping,

航空以及海运方面的研究，

just to say that I think there is still a small fighting chance

我认为在避免这危险的2℃气候变化上

of avoiding this two-degree dangerous climate change.

我们仍有很小的胜算。

But we really need to get to grips with the numbers

但我们必须要掌握确切的数据

to work out how to do it.

来谋划对策。

So if you focus in on this trajectory and these graphs,

所以如果你仔细看图表中的这些轨迹，

the yellow circle there highlights that the departure

这个黄色的圈标注出了

from the red four-degree pathway

红色的4℃路径

to the two-degree green pathway is immediate.

和绿色2℃路径的分叉点已经迫在眉睫。

And that's because of cumulative emissions,

这是基于积累排放量，

or the carbon budget.

或是碳预算的结果。

So in other words, because of the lights and the projectors

也就是说，由于这个房间的

that are on in this room right now,

灯光和投影仪的运作，

二氧化碳被排放到大气中，

the CO2 that is going into our atmosphere

这种由消耗电能而产生的碳排放

as a result of that electricity consumption

lasts a very long time.

会在大气中停留很长一段时间。

Some of it will be in our atmosphere for a century, maybe much longer.

有些甚至会在大气中停留 一个世纪或是更长。

It will accumulate, and greenhouse gases tend to be cumulative.

它会积累，而温室气体有积累性。

And that tells us something about these trajectories.

这就解释了这些轨迹的走向。

First of all, it tells us that it's the area under these curves that matter,

首先，这些曲线之下的区域才是关键，

not where we reach at a particular date in future.

而不是在未来的某一天达到某个值。

And that's important, because it doesn't matter

这很重要，因为这并不取决于

if we come up with some amazing whiz-bang technology

我们能否在2049年的最后一天

to sort out our energy problem on the last day of 2049,

开发出什么高端的科技，

just in the nick of time to sort things out.

在千钧一发之际解决了能源问题。

Because in the meantime, emissions will have accumulated.

因为在这个过程中碳排放 依然会不断累积。

So if we continue on this red, four-degree centigrade scenario pathway,

所以如果我们继续沿着这条4℃红线，

the longer we continue on it,

在上面继续的时间越久，

that will need to be made up for in later years

之后就需要弥补的就越多。

to keep the same carbon budget, to keep the same area under the curve,

来保持相同的碳预算， 使曲线下方的区域面积不变。

which means that that trajectory, the red one there, becomes steeper.

也就是说这条红色的轨迹 会变得更加陡峭。

So in other words, if we don't reduce emissions in the short to medium term,

也就是说，如果我们不减少 中短期的排放量，

then we'll have to make more significant year-on-year emission reductions.

那就必须在未来更为显著地 减少年同比排放量。

We also know that we have to decarbonize our energy system.

我们还必须给我们的能源系统脱碳。

But if we don't start to cut emissions in the short to medium term,

但如果我们不减少中短期的排放，

then we will have to do that even sooner.

那我们就必须更迅速地行动起来。

So this poses really big challenges for us.

这对我们来说是一个很大的挑战。

The other thing it does is tells us something about energy policy.

这个图标还告诉了我们 关于能源政策的信息。

If you live in a part of the world where per capita emissions are already high,

如果你生活在一个 人均排放量已经很高的地区，

it points us towards reducing energy demand.

那我们就需要减少对能源的需求。

And that's because with all the will in the world,

而因为无论我们怎么努力,

the large-scale engineering infrastructure

那些需要我们及时推出

that we need to roll out rapidly

来减少能源供应方碳排放的

to decarbonize the supply side of our energy system

大型基础设施工程

都无法及时完成。

is just simply not going to happen in time.

So it doesn't matter whether we choose nuclear power

所以无论我们是选择核能

or carbon capture and storage,

还是碳捕获和储存，

upscale our biofuel production,

增加生物燃料的产能，

or go for a much bigger roll-out of wind turbines and wave turbines.

或是提高风力发电和 潮汐发电机组的转速。

All of that will take time.

所有这一切都需要时间。

So because it's the area under the curve that matters,

而因为曲线下方的区域才是关键，

我们就需要专注在能源利用效率上，

we need to focus on energy efficiency,

but also on energy conservation -- in other words, using less energy.

还有节约能源—— 也就是少消耗能源。

And if we do that, that also means

如果我们这么做，那也就意味着

that as we continue to roll out the supply-side technology,

随着能源供应科技的发展，

we will have less of a job to do if we've actually managed

如果我们能确实减少能源消耗，

to reduce our energy consumption,

那我们的负担就会越来越轻，

because we will then need less infrastructure on the supply side.

因为我们将不再需要 那么多能源来供应基础设施。

Another issue that we really need to grapple with

另一个需要我们解决的问题是

is the issue of well-being and equity.

福祉，以及公平。

There are many parts of the world where the standard of living needs to rise.

世界上很多地区的生活水平 仍有待提高。

Bbut with energy systems currently reliant on fossil fuel,

而现在的能源系统依赖于化石燃料，

as those economies grow so will emissions.

随着这些地区经济的增长， 排放量也会增长。

And now, if we're all constrained by the same amount of carbon budget,

而现在如果我们都受限于等量的碳预算，

that means that if some parts of the world's emissions are needing to rise,

那就意味着要提高部分地区的排放量，

then other parts of the world's emissions need to reduce.

同时减少其他地区的排放量。

So that poses very significant challenges for wealthy nations.

这对于发达国家来说一个很大的挑战，

Because according to our research,

因为根据我们的研究，

if you're in a country where per capita emissions are really high --

如果你在一个人均排放量很高的国家，

so North America, Europe, Australia --

比如北美，欧洲，澳大利亚——

emissions reductions of the order of 10 percent per year,

每年要实现10%的减排量，

and starting immediately, will be required for a good chance

而且需要立即执行，才能很好地

of avoiding the two-degree target.

避免2℃的升温。

Let me just put that into context.

把这放在一定的背景下看看。

The economist Nicholas Stern

经济学家Nichola Stern

said that emission reductions of more than one percent per year

曾经说过排放量的减少超过每年1%，

通常就意味着经济衰退 和动荡时期的到来。

had only ever been associated with economic recession or upheaval.

So this poses huge challenges for the issue of economic growth,

所以，这对经济发展的确 是一个巨大的挑战，

because if we have our high carbon infrastructure in place,

因为如果我们使用高排放的基础设施，

it means that if our economies grow,

那就意味着我们的经济会增长，

then so do our emissions.

而排放量也会增长。

So I'd just like to take a quote from a paper

这里我想引用一段

by myself and Kevin Anderson back in 2011

我和Kevin Anderson 早在2011论文里的话，

where we said that to avoid the two-degree framing of dangerous climate change,

当时我们提出要避免 危险的2℃气候变化，

economic growth needs to be exchanged at least temporarily

至少暂时要以牺牲经济增长为代价，

for a period of planned austerity in wealthy nations.

发达国家要准备好一段时间的经济紧缩。

This is a really difficult message to take,

人们很难接受这种说法。

because what it suggests is that we really need to do things differently.

因为这预示着我们要改变以往的做法。

This is not about just incremental change.

不仅仅是渐进式的变革，

This is about doing things differently, about whole system change,

而是要改变整个系统，

and sometimes it's about doing less things.

有时候需要我们减缓发展的脚步。

这可以涉及到我们所有人，

And this applies to all of us,

whatever sphere of influence we have.

不论我们的个人行为能产生多大的影响。

So it could be from writing to our local politician

可以从给地方政客写信开始，

to talking to our boss at work or being the boss at work,

到给老板谏言或是自己对员工的管理。

or talking with our friends and family, or, quite simply, changing our lifestyles.

或是和家人朋友商量， 或是单纯改变自己的生活方式。

Because we really need to make significant change.

因为我们必须要做出重大的改变。

At the moment, we're choosing a four-degree scenario.

目前，我们选择了4℃升温的发展趋势。

If we really want to avoid the two-degree scenario,

但如果我们真的想避免2℃升温的话，

there really is no time like the present to act.

行动已经刻不容缓了。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Bruno Giussani: Alice, basically what you're saying,

Bruno Giussani（BG）： Alice, 总结一下你刚才说的，

就是除非发达国家能每年减排10%，

the talk is, unless wealthy nations start cutting 10 percent per year

the emissions now, this year, not in 2020 or '25,

从现在开始，今年，而不是2020或2025，

we are going to go straight to the four-plus-degree scenario.

不然我们将会直接进入4℃升温的情况。

I am wondering what's your take on the cut by 70 percent for 2070.

你对到2070年减排70%是怎么看的？

Alice Bows-Larkin: Yeah, it's just nowhere near enough to avoid two degrees.

Alice Bows-Larkin（AB）: 目前来看2℃升温是不可避免的了。

One of the things that often --

很多时候——

当这些模型研究指出我们该怎么做的时候，

when there are these modeling studies that look at what we need to do,

is they tend to hugely overestimate how quickly other countries in the world

它们都倾向于过于夸大其他国家

can start to reduce emissions.

减排的速度，

So they make kind of heroic assumptions about that.

所以就会有一些大胆的假设。

The more we do that, because it's the cumulative emissions,

而我们越是这样，由于这是累积排放，

the short-term stuff that really matters.

短期的行为的影响就越不容忽视。

So it does make a huge difference.

它的确会有显著的效果。

If a big country like China, for example,

比如说像中国这样的大国，

continues to grow even for just a few extra years,

国家的发展就算只多那么几年，

that will make a big difference to when we need to decarbonize.

也会在脱碳的时候产生巨大的影响。

So I don't think we can even say when it will be,

所以我们并不知道 这种变化到底何时会出现，

because it all depends on what we have to do in the short term.

因为这都取决于我们短期内的行为。

But I think we've just got huge scope, and we don't pull those levers

但我感到很遗憾， 我们有巨大的改善空间，

that allow us to reduce the energy demand, which is a shame.

但却没有采取行动来减少对能源的需求。

BG: Alice, thank you for coming to TED and sharing this data.

BG：Alice，谢谢你来到 TED 分享这些数据。

AB: 谢谢

ABL: Thank you.

（鼓掌）

(Applause)