Climate Change Is Happening. Here's How We Adapt | Alice Bows-Larkin | TED Talks

譯者: Tess Yeh 審譯者: Chen Wan-Chien

Over our lifetimes,

我們的一生中

we've all contributed to climate change.

都在促進氣候變遷

Actions, choices and behaviors

我們的行動, 選擇和作為

will have led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

都將助長溫室氣體排放

And I think that that's quite a powerful thought.

我認為這個想法很震撼

But it does have the potential to make us feel guilty

但也可能令人感到罪惡

when we think about decisions we might have made

只要一想起做過的決定

around where to travel to,

想去旅行的地方

how often and how,

多常去、如何去

about the energy that we choose to use

還有在居家和工作環境

in our homes or in our workplaces,

所使用的能源

or quite simply the lifestyles that we lead and enjoy.

或者僅僅是習慣的生活模式

But we can also turn that thought on its head,

然而我們可以 翻轉這個想法

and think that if we've had such a profound

既然我們已經對氣候

but a negative impact on our climate already,

造成如此劇烈 而負面的影響

then we have an opportunity to influence the amount of future climate change

我們也有機會影氣候變遷幅度

that we will need to adapt to.

也是我們得適應的氣候變遷幅度

So we have a choice.

因此, 我們可以抉擇

We can either choose to start to take climate change seriously,

一者, 開始正視氣候變遷

and significantly cut and mitigate our greenhouse gas emissions,

大幅降低溫室氣體排放

and then we will have to adapt to less of the climate change impacts in future.

未來我們只需因應 較緩和的氣候變遷

Alternatively, we can continue to really ignore the climate change problem.

反過來說, 若我們繼續 無視氣候變遷

But if we do that, we are also choosing

這一來, 我們選擇面對的

to adapt to very much more powerful climate impacts in future.

將會是以後更強烈的氣候衝擊

And not only that.

不只這樣

As people who live in countries with high per capita emissions,

由於我國人均排放量高

we're making that choice on behalf of others as well.

我們也代表其他人做決定

But the choice that we don't have

而我們的選項裡

is a no climate change future.

並沒有不遭受氣候變遷的未來

Over the last two decades,

過去20年來

our government negotiators and policymakers have been coming together

我們的政府協商人及政策決定者不斷會面

to discuss climate change,

商討氣候變化問題

and they've been focused on avoiding a two-degree centigrade warming

努力避免地球氣溫 比工業革命以前

above pre-industrial levels.

上升2℃

That's the temperature that's associated with dangerous impacts

不同指標都顯示 超過這個溫度

across a range of different indicators,

將對人類和環境

to humans and to the environment.

帶來危險後果

So two degrees centigrade constitutes dangerous climate change.

這2℃代表危險的氣候改變

But dangerous climate change can be subjective.

然而變遷的危險程度 可能很主觀

So if we think about an extreme weather event

例如有些地方

that might happen in some part of the world,

會發生劇烈天災

and if that happens in a part of the world where there is good infrastructure,

如果那裡公共建設完善

where there are people that are well-insured and so on,

人民都有保險

then that impact can be disruptive.

天災可能只影響正常生活

It can cause upset, it could cause cost.

使人心情低落, 損失財物

It could even cause some deaths.

或者一些人員傷亡

But if that exact same weather event happens in a part of the world

但如果同樣天災 發生在其他地方

where there is poor infrastructure,

那裡基礎建設落後

or where people are not well-insured,

人們沒有保險

or they're not having good support networks,

又缺乏好的支援網絡

then that same climate change impact could be devastating.

那麼相同的氣候變遷 就可能造成毀滅

It could cause a significant loss of home,

成千上萬人流離失所

but it could also cause significant amounts of death.

罹難者不計其數

So this is a graph of the CO2 emissions at the left-hand side

這張圖, 左邊是 石油燃料和工業的

from fossil fuel and industry,

二氧化碳排放量

and time from before the Industrial Revolution

時間軸則從工業革命前

out towards the present day.

延伸到今日

And what's immediately striking about this

最令人一眼震驚的是

is that emissions have been growing exponentially.

排放量呈指數成長

If we focus in on a shorter period of time from 1950,

如果縮短時間 至1950年以來

we have established in 1988

1988年, 各國成立

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

政府間氣候變化專門委員會

the Rio Earth Summit in 1992,

1992年召開了 里約地球高峰會

then rolling on a few years, in 2009 we had the Copenhagen Accord,

數年後, 2009年各國 簽署哥本哈根協議

where it established avoiding a two-degree temperature rise

同意根據科學方法和平等原則

in keeping with the science and on the basis of equity.

避免氣溫升幅超過2℃

And then in 2012, we had the Rio+20 event.

接著, 2012年召開了 Rio+20世界永續發展高峰會

And all the way through, during all of these meetings

然而這些會議一路下來

and many others as well,

還有許多其他會議

emissions have continued to rise.

排放量仍持續攀升

And if we focus on our historical emission trend in recent years,

我們如果看 近年的排放量走向

and we put that together with our understanding

加上對全球經濟

of the direction of travel in our global economy,

發展方向的了解

then we are much more on track

便發現, 我們更可能走上

for a four-degree centigrade global warming

全球暖化4℃的道路

than we are for the two-degree centigrade.

而非2℃

Now, let's just pause for a moment

現在, 讓我們暫且想像

and think about this four-degree global average temperature.

全球平均升溫4℃的情況

Most of our planet is actually made up of the sea.

我們的地球 大部分是海洋

Now, because the sea has a greater thermal inertia than the land,

由於海洋的熱慣性比陸地高

the average temperatures over land are actually going to be higher

因此陸地的平均溫度

than they are over the sea.

實際上比較海洋高

The second thing is that we as human beings don't experience

再者, 人類從未經歷過

global average temperatures.

全球平均溫度

We experience hot days, cold days,

我們有熱天、冷天

rainy days, especially if you live in Manchester like me.

雨天，尤其像我住曼徹斯特

So now put yourself in a city center.

現在想像你在世界上

Imagine somewhere in the world:

某大都會市中心

Mumbai, Beijing, New York, London.

如孟買, 北京, 紐約或倫敦

It's the hottest day that you've ever experienced.

今天是你這輩子 最熱的一天

There's sun beating down,

太陽光毒辣直射

there's concrete and glass all around you.

身旁全是 水泥建築和玻璃帷幕

Now imagine that same day --

想像同樣這天

but it's six, eight, maybe 10 to 12 degrees warmer

溫度升高6, 8, 10或12度

on that day during that heat wave.

熱浪襲擊

That's the kind of thing we're going to experience

這是未來全球平均溫升4℃後

under a four-degree global average temperature scenario.

我們所要面對的情形

And the problem with these extremes,

這個問題伴隨著極端狀況

and not just the temperature extremes,

不只有極端溫度

but also the extremes in terms of storms and other climate impacts,

還有超級暴風雨 和其他氣候衝擊

is our infrastructure is just not set up to deal with these sorts of events.

我們的公共建設 並非為因應這些情形而建

So our roads and our rail networks

因此我們的公路、鐵路網

have been designed to last for a long time

設計上只能承受

and withstand only certain amounts of impacts

世界上不同地方的 特殊天災衝擊

in different parts of the world.

以長久使用

And this is going to be extremely challenged.

因此這將是嚴峻考驗

Our power stations are expected to be cooled by water

發電廠本來就用水 降溫至特定溫度

to a certain temperature to remain effective and resilient.

以保持效能並重新發電

And our buildings are designed to be comfortable

建築物也設計在 特定溫度範圍

within a particular temperature range.

才能運作良好

And this is all going to be significantly challenged

溫升4℃情況下

under a four-degree-type scenario.

這些設施都將備受挑戰

Our infrastructure has not been designed to cope with this.

公共建設不是設計來 處理這些狀況

So if we go back, also thinking about four degrees,

讓我們再回到溫升4℃

it's not just the direct impacts,

就算沒有直接影響

but also some indirect impacts.

也有間接衝擊

So if we take food security, for example.

以糧食安全為例

Maize and wheat yields

在某些地區

in some parts of the world

受溫度上升4℃影響

are expected to be up to 40 percent lower

玉米和小麥產量

under a four-degree scenario,

可能銳減40％

rice up to 30 percent lower.

或減少30％

This will be absolutely devastating for global food security.

這必將拖垮全球糧食安全

So all in all, the kinds of impacts anticipated

因此溫升4℃

under this four-degree centigrade scenario

帶來的整體衝擊

are going to be incompatible with global organized living.

將無法與全人類的 生存秩序共存

So back to our trajectories and our graphs of four degrees and two degrees.

再回到圖上 4℃和2℃的路徑

Is it reasonable still to focus on the two-degree path?

只關注2℃路徑 還有道理嗎?

There are quite a lot of my colleagues and other scientists

我許多同事和科學家會說

who would say that it's now too late to avoid a two-degree warming.

避免溫升2℃為時不晚

But I would just like to draw on my own research

但我想引用我對

on energy systems, on food systems,

能源體系、糧食體系

aviation and also shipping,

航空與貨運的研究

just to say that I think there is still a small fighting chance

我認為仍有一點機會

of avoiding this two-degree dangerous climate change.

逆轉危險的2℃氣候變遷

But we really need to get to grips with the numbers

但我們非得從統計數字

to work out how to do it.

才知道該怎麼做

So if you focus in on this trajectory and these graphs,

如果你留意這圖和曲線

the yellow circle there highlights that the departure

黃圈位置凸顯出

from the red four-degree pathway

紅色4℃路徑與 綠色2℃路徑

to the two-degree green pathway is immediate.

快速分道揚鑣

And that's because of cumulative emissions,

這因為累積排放量

or the carbon budget.

或碳預算的關係

So in other words, because of the lights and the projectors

換句話說, 由於目前現場正使用

that are on in this room right now,

燈光和投影器材

the CO2 that is going into our atmosphere

二氧化碳持續進入大氣

as a result of that electricity consumption

造成長時間

lasts a very long time.

持續用電

Some of it will be in our atmosphere for a century, maybe much longer.

有些氣體會在大氣中 存留一世紀, 或者更久

It will accumulate, and greenhouse gases tend to be cumulative.

因此不斷增加 溫室氣體也逐漸累積

And that tells us something about these trajectories.

於是從中我們了解 這兩條路徑

First of all, it tells us that it's the area under these curves that matter,

首先, 曲線下的區域才是重點

not where we reach at a particular date in future.

而非在哪一天達成目標

And that's important, because it doesn't matter

因為問題不在於

if we come up with some amazing whiz-bang technology

我們是否發展出 驚人的先進科技

to sort out our energy problem on the last day of 2049,

好在2049年底 解決能源問題

just in the nick of time to sort things out.

及時化解危機

Because in the meantime, emissions will have accumulated.

因為在此同時 排放量仍不斷增加

So if we continue on this red, four-degree centigrade scenario pathway,

如果我們走 紅色4℃路徑

the longer we continue on it,

走得越久

that will need to be made up for in later years

就必須在之後幾年 進行補救

to keep the same carbon budget, to keep the same area under the curve,

以維持等量碳預算 並保持在曲線下方

which means that that trajectory, the red one there, becomes steeper.

如此一來, 紅曲線 就變得更陡峭

So in other words, if we don't reduce emissions in the short to medium term,

也就是, 如果短中期內 無法降低排放

then we'll have to make more significant year-on-year emission reductions.

之後每年都得大幅減量

We also know that we have to decarbonize our energy system.

同時, 我們也必須 讓能源系統去碳化

But if we don't start to cut emissions in the short to medium term,

然而如果短中期內無法減排

then we will have to do that even sooner.

我們就得減量得更快

So this poses really big challenges for us.

這是個重大挑戰

The other thing it does is tells us something about energy policy.

另外, 這也顯示了能源政策

If you live in a part of the world where per capita emissions are already high,

如果你身在 人均排放量高的地方

it points us towards reducing energy demand.

代表必須降低能源需求

And that's because with all the will in the world,

這是因為 即便全球同心協力

the large-scale engineering infrastructure

要讓短期內新建的

that we need to roll out rapidly

大型能源設施

to decarbonize the supply side of our energy system

供應去碳化的能源

is just simply not going to happen in time.

是不可能限期內實現的

So it doesn't matter whether we choose nuclear power

所以問題不在於 該選擇核能

or carbon capture and storage,

或捕獲、封存碳排

upscale our biofuel production,

或提高生物燃料產品的水平

or go for a much bigger roll-out of wind turbines and wave turbines.

或增加風力和潮汐發電產能

All of that will take time.

達成這些都得花時間

So because it's the area under the curve that matters,

由於重點在於曲線下面積

we need to focus on energy efficiency,

我們需著重能源效率

but also on energy conservation -- in other words, using less energy.

以及能源保護 也就是減少能源使用

And if we do that, that also means

如果做到了, 這代表

that as we continue to roll out the supply-side technology,

我們可以持續供應能源

we will have less of a job to do if we've actually managed

負擔也將減輕 只要我們確實

to reduce our energy consumption,

達成降低能源消耗

because we will then need less infrastructure on the supply side.

因為我們已不需 那麼多能源建設

Another issue that we really need to grapple with

另一需要努力解決的問題是

is the issue of well-being and equity.

人類安居樂業和平等問題

There are many parts of the world where the standard of living needs to rise.

在很多地方 生活水平極需提升

Bbut with energy systems currently reliant on fossil fuel,

但由於目前仍靠石油為能源

as those economies grow so will emissions.

因此只要經濟成長 排放量也將增加

And now, if we're all constrained by the same amount of carbon budget,

現在, 如果全世界 遵守碳預算限制

that means that if some parts of the world's emissions are needing to rise,

代表如果有地方 將增加碳排放

then other parts of the world's emissions need to reduce.

那麼其他地方就得減少

So that poses very significant challenges for wealthy nations.

這對富國是一大挑戰

Because according to our research,

因為根據我們的研究

if you're in a country where per capita emissions are really high --

人均排放量非常高的國家

so North America, Europe, Australia --

如北美, 歐洲, 澳洲

emissions reductions of the order of 10 percent per year,

現在開始每年減排10%

and starting immediately, will be required for a good chance

那麼就很有機會

of avoiding the two-degree target.

避免2℃問題

Let me just put that into context.

以具體脈絡來說

The economist Nicholas Stern

經濟學家斯特恩曾說

said that emission reductions of more than one percent per year

每年減排高於1%

had only ever been associated with economic recession or upheaval.

會造成經濟衰退和動盪

So this poses huge challenges for the issue of economic growth,

這嚴重挑戰了經濟成長

because if we have our high carbon infrastructure in place,

因為如果我們 仍使用高碳排設施

it means that if our economies grow,

意味著經濟若成長

then so do our emissions.

碳排放也跟著成長

So I'd just like to take a quote from a paper

我想引用我和安德森

by myself and Kevin Anderson back in 2011

2011年提出的研究報告

where we said that to avoid the two-degree framing of dangerous climate change,

為了避免2℃溫升 導致危險的氣候變化

economic growth needs to be exchanged at least temporarily

至少短期內 經濟成長必須互換

for a period of planned austerity in wealthy nations.

富國要實行撙節計畫

This is a really difficult message to take,

這很難說服人

because what it suggests is that we really need to do things differently.

因為這建議要求改變做法

This is not about just incremental change.

不只增加變革

This is about doing things differently, about whole system change,

而是改變方法 完全扭轉體系

and sometimes it's about doing less things.

有時, 這代表少做一點

And this applies to all of us,

這適用於所有人

whatever sphere of influence we have.

不論你我的影響層面為何

So it could be from writing to our local politician

可以寫信給選區議員

to talking to our boss at work or being the boss at work,

跟老闆聊聊 或當老闆實地做

or talking with our friends and family, or, quite simply, changing our lifestyles.

跟親友談談 或單純改變生活模式

Because we really need to make significant change.

因為, 我們真的需要大幅改變

At the moment, we're choosing a four-degree scenario.

目前, 我們選了4℃道路

If we really want to avoid the two-degree scenario,

如果想避免2℃處境

there really is no time like the present to act.

現在就要行動

Thank you.

謝謝大家

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Bruno Giussani: Alice, basically what you're saying,

(吉薩尼)艾莉絲, 你演講提到

the talk is, unless wealthy nations start cutting 10 percent per year

除非富國每年減排10%

the emissions now, this year, not in 2020 or '25,

現在今年開始 不是2020或2025年

we are going to go straight to the four-plus-degree scenario.

否則我們將直入溫升4℃

I am wondering what's your take on the cut by 70 percent for 2070.

我好奇你對2070年 減排70%的看法

Alice Bows-Larkin: Yeah, it's just nowhere near enough to avoid two degrees.

(鲍爾‧拉金) 是的 連避免2℃都差得遠呢

One of the things that often --

我們常聽到

when there are these modeling studies that look at what we need to do,

一些模型研究, 建議該怎麼做

is they tend to hugely overestimate how quickly other countries in the world

它們大多高估世界各國

can start to reduce emissions.

可投入減排的時間

So they make kind of heroic assumptions about that.

他們的假定過於美化

The more we do that, because it's the cumulative emissions,

這種研究做越多 由於碳排的累積

the short-term stuff that really matters.

短期內的成果 就非常重要

So it does make a huge difference.

差異會很大

If a big country like China, for example,

假如大國, 像中國

continues to grow even for just a few extra years,

持續再發展僅僅數年

that will make a big difference to when we need to decarbonize.

那麼我們去碳的時間點 又將大不同

So I don't think we can even say when it will be,

因此很難說會在何時

because it all depends on what we have to do in the short term.

全靠短期內 我們做了什麼

But I think we've just got huge scope, and we don't pull those levers

但目前我們只知概略 也尚未著手

that allow us to reduce the energy demand, which is a shame.

使能源需求降低 真丟臉

BG: Alice, thank you for coming to TED and sharing this data.

(吉薩尼) 謝謝你來TED分享

ABL: Thank you.

(鲍爾‧拉金) 謝謝

(Applause)

(掌聲)