Climate Change Is Happening. Here's How We Adapt | Alice Bows-Larkin | TED Talks

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2015-10-27 ใƒป TED


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Climate Change Is Happening. Here's How We Adapt | Alice Bows-Larkin | TED Talks

124,085 views ใƒป 2015-10-27

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Bill Kil ๊ฒ€ํ† : Jihyeon J. Kim
00:12
Over our lifetimes,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ผ์ƒ๋™์•ˆ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๊ธฐ์—ฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:14
we've all contributed to climate change.
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00:17
Actions, choices and behaviors
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•ด์˜จ ํ–‰๋™, ์„ ํƒ, ์ผ์ƒ์ƒํ™œ๋“ค์ด
00:21
will have led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
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์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ์„ ์ด‰์ง„ํ•ด ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:26
And I think that that's quite a powerful thought.
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฝค๋‚˜ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๋ฉ”์„ธ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:29
But it does have the potential to make us feel guilty
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋™์‹œ์— ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ํ•˜๋‹ค๋ณด๋ฉด
์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์˜จ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒฐ์ •๋“ค์—,
00:32
when we think about decisions we might have made
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์˜ˆ์ปจ๋Œ€, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋””๋กœ, ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜, ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์—ฌํ–‰์„ ๋‹ค๋‹ˆ๋Š”์ง€,
00:35
around where to travel to,
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00:37
how often and how,
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00:40
about the energy that we choose to use
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๊ฐ€์ •๊ณผ ์ง์žฅ์—์„œ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š”์ง€,
00:43
in our homes or in our workplaces,
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00:46
or quite simply the lifestyles that we lead and enjoy.
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ ์ƒํ™œ๋ฐฉ์‹์—๋„ ์ฃ„์ฑ…๊ฐ์„ ๋Š๋‚„ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:51
But we can also turn that thought on its head,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์‚ฌ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ์ „ํ™˜ํ•ด์„œ
00:55
and think that if we've had such a profound
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฏธ ๊ธฐํ›„์— ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ค€ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ธ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ ,
00:57
but a negative impact on our climate already,
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01:01
then we have an opportunity to influence the amount of future climate change
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์ด์ œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ๋ผ๋„ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ค„์—ฌ์„œ ๋‹ฅ์ณ์˜ฌ ๊ธฐํ›„ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š”
01:06
that we will need to adapt to.
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๊ฒฐ๋ก ์„ ์–ป์„ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
01:09
So we have a choice.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์„ ํƒ์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:10
We can either choose to start to take climate change seriously,
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๋จผ์ € ์ด์ œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ๋ผ๋„ ๊ธฐํ›„ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์—ฌ์„œ
01:15
and significantly cut and mitigate our greenhouse gas emissions,
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์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค ๋ฐฐ์ถœ์„ ํ™•์—ฐํžˆ ๋‹จ์ ˆํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์™„ํ™”ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ
01:19
and then we will have to adapt to less of the climate change impacts in future.
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๋‹ฅ์ณ์˜ฌ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:25
Alternatively, we can continue to really ignore the climate change problem.
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๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๋กœ ์ด์ œ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ทธ๋ž˜์™”๋“ฏ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋ฌด์‹œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:30
But if we do that, we are also choosing
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์—
01:33
to adapt to very much more powerful climate impacts in future.
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ํ›จ์”ฌ ํ˜น๋…ํ•œ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๊ฒช์–ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:38
And not only that.
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๊ทธ๋ฟ๋งŒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:39
As people who live in countries with high per capita emissions,
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์ธ๊ตฌ ๋Œ€ ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค ๋ฐฐ์ถœ ๋น„์œจ์ด ๋†’์€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ๊ตญ๋ฏผ๋“ค๋กœ์„œ
01:42
we're making that choice on behalf of others as well.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์„ ํƒ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ด๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋„ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:47
But the choice that we don't have
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๋ฏธ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ๋Š”
01:49
is a no climate change future.
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๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์„ ํƒ์ง€๋Š” ๋‚จ์•„์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:53
Over the last two decades,
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์ง€๋‚œ 20์—ฌ ๋…„๊ฐ„ ์ •๋ถ€ ํ˜‘์ƒ๊ฐ€๋“ค๊ณผ ์ •์ฑ… ์ž…์•ˆ์ž๋“ค์€ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋…ผ์˜ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ
01:55
our government negotiators and policymakers have been coming together
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01:59
to discuss climate change,
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02:01
and they've been focused on avoiding a two-degree centigrade warming
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์‚ฐ์—…ํ™” ์ „๋ณด๋‹ค ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ด ์„ญ์”จ2๋„ ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜๋Š” ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ
02:05
above pre-industrial levels.
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ํ”ผํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•ด์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:08
That's the temperature that's associated with dangerous impacts
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์„ญ์”จ2๋„๋Š”
์ธ๋ฅ˜์™€ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์— ๋‹ค๋ฐฉ๋ฉด์—์„œ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์˜จ๋„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:12
across a range of different indicators,
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02:15
to humans and to the environment.
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02:17
So two degrees centigrade constitutes dangerous climate change.
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์ฆ‰ 2๋„๋Š” ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ๊ธฐ์ค€์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:22
But dangerous climate change can be subjective.
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์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ๊ธฐ์ค€์€ ์ฃผ๊ด€์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:24
So if we think about an extreme weather event
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๊ทน๋‹จ์ ์ธ ๊ธฐํ›„ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๊ฐ ๊ตญ์— ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•  ๋•Œ
02:27
that might happen in some part of the world,
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02:29
and if that happens in a part of the world where there is good infrastructure,
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์ด ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์ด ์ž˜ ๋˜์–ด์žˆ๊ณ 
02:33
where there are people that are well-insured and so on,
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์ง€์—ญ ์ธ๊ตฌ๋„ ๋ณดํ—˜์œผ๋กœ ์ž˜ ๋ณดํ˜ธ ๋ฐ›๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
02:36
then that impact can be disruptive.
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๊ทธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์€ ์‚ฌํšŒ์— ์ง€์žฅ์„ ์ฃผ๋Š” ์ •๋„์ผ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:40
It can cause upset, it could cause cost.
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์†Œ์š”์‚ฌํƒœ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ธฐ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋น„์šฉ์ด ์ƒ๊ธธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ 
02:43
It could even cause some deaths.
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๋ช‡ ๋ช…์˜ ์‚ฌ์ƒ์ž๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ธธ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:45
But if that exact same weather event happens in a part of the world
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋™์ผํ•œ ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์ด ์—ด์•…ํ•˜๊ณ 
02:49
where there is poor infrastructure,
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02:51
or where people are not well-insured,
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์ง€์—ญ ์ธ๊ตฌ๋„ ๋ณดํ—˜์˜ ๋ณดํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ์ž˜ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
02:53
or they're not having good support networks,
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์‚ฌํšŒ์  ์ง€์ง€ ์ฒด๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์•ฝํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
02:55
then that same climate change impact could be devastating.
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๋™์ผํ•œ ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ์น˜๋ช…์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ฃผ๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:00
It could cause a significant loss of home,
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์ƒ๋‹น์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ๊ฑฐ์ง€๋ฅผ ์žƒ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ , ์ƒ๋‹น์ˆ˜์˜ ์‚ฌ๋ง์ž๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:03
but it could also cause significant amounts of death.
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03:07
So this is a graph of the CO2 emissions at the left-hand side
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฐ์—…ํ˜๋ช…๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํ˜„์žฌ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ™”์„์—ฐ๋ฃŒ์˜ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๊ณผ ์‚ฐ์—…๋ฐœ์ „์— ์˜ํ•œ
03:11
from fossil fuel and industry,
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03:13
and time from before the Industrial Revolution
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์ด์‚ฐํ™”ํƒ„์†Œ์˜ ์—ฐ๋„๋ณ„ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:16
out towards the present day.
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03:18
And what's immediately striking about this
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์ ์ธ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€
03:21
is that emissions have been growing exponentially.
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๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์ด ๊ธฐํ•˜๊ธ‰์ˆ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:25
If we focus in on a shorter period of time from 1950,
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1950๋…„ ์ดํ›„ ์‹œ์ ์„ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด,
03:29
we have established in 1988
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1988๋…„์—๋Š” ๊ธฐํ›„ ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ„ ํŒจ๋„์„,
03:32
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
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03:35
the Rio Earth Summit in 1992,
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1992๋…„์—๋Š” ๋ฆฌ์˜ค์ง€๊ตฌ์ •์ƒํฌ์˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐœ์ตœํ–ˆ๊ณ 
03:39
then rolling on a few years, in 2009 we had the Copenhagen Accord,
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๋ช‡ ๋…„ ๋’ค 2009๋…„์—๋Š” ์ฝ”ํŽœํ•˜๊ฒํ˜‘์ •์—์„œ
03:44
where it established avoiding a two-degree temperature rise
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์„ธ๊ณ„๊ณต๋™์ฒด์  ๊ฒฌ์ง€์™€ ๊ณผํ•™์  ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ์˜ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์˜จ 2๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ๋ฐฉ์ง€๋ฅผ ํ˜‘์˜ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:48
in keeping with the science and on the basis of equity.
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03:52
And then in 2012, we had the Rio+20 event.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  2012๋…„์—๋Š” Rio+20 ํ–‰์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:56
And all the way through, during all of these meetings
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋‹จ์ฒด ํ–‰๋™๋“ค๊ณผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ๋“ค์— ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์€ ๊พธ์ค€ํžˆ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:59
and many others as well,
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04:01
emissions have continued to rise.
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04:04
And if we focus on our historical emission trend in recent years,
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์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ํ˜„์žฌ๊นŒ์ง€์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ ์ถ”์„ธ์™€ ์„ธ๊ณ„๊ฒฝ์ œ ๋™ํ–ฅ์„ ์ข…ํ•ฉํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด,
04:10
and we put that together with our understanding
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04:12
of the direction of travel in our global economy,
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04:15
then we are much more on track
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์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์˜จ 2๋„ ์ƒ์Šน๋งŒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
04:17
for a four-degree centigrade global warming
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04:20
than we are for the two-degree centigrade.
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4๋„ ์ƒ์Šน์„ ํ–ฅํ•ด ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:24
Now, let's just pause for a moment
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์ž ์‹œ ๋…ผ์˜๋ฅผ ๋ฉˆ์ถ”๊ณ 
04:26
and think about this four-degree global average temperature.
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์ง€๊ตฌ ํ‰๊ท ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ด 4๋„ ์ƒ์Šนํ•  ๋•Œ ์ƒ๊ธธ ์ผ๋“ค์„ ์•Œ์•„๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:30
Most of our planet is actually made up of the sea.
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์ง€๊ตฌ์˜ ํ‘œ๋ฉด์€ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๋ฐ”๋‹ค๋กœ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ ธ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:34
Now, because the sea has a greater thermal inertia than the land,
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๋ฐ”๋‹ค๋Š” ์œก์ง€๋ณด๋‹ค ๋น„์—ด์ด ๋†’๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
04:38
the average temperatures over land are actually going to be higher
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์œก์ง€์˜ ํ‰๊ท  ๊ธฐ์˜จ์€ ๋ฐ”๋‹ค๋ณด๋‹ค ๋†’์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:41
than they are over the sea.
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04:43
The second thing is that we as human beings don't experience
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๋˜, ์ธ๊ฐ„์€ ์ง€๊ตฌ์˜ ํ‰๊ท ๊ธฐ์˜จ์„ ์ง์ ‘์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋Š๋ผ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:47
global average temperatures.
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04:49
We experience hot days, cold days,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‹จ์ง€ ๊ธฐ์˜จ์„
๋”์šด ๋‚ , ์ถ”์šด ๋‚ , ๋น„์˜ค๋Š” ๋‚ ๋กœ๋งŒ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด์„œ ๋Š๋‚๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:52
rainy days, especially if you live in Manchester like me.
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์ €์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋งจ์ฒด์Šคํ„ฐ์— ์‚ฐ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋‚ ์”จ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ž˜ ๋Š๋‚„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
(์›ƒ์Œ)
04:55
So now put yourself in a city center.
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์ด์ œ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๋„์‹œ ํ•œ๊ฐ€์šด๋ฐ ์„œ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค.
04:58
Imagine somewhere in the world:
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๋ญ„๋ฐ”์ด, ๋ฒ ์ด์ง•, ๋‰ด์š•, ๋Ÿฐ๋˜ ๋“ฑ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๊ฐ๊ตญ์— ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ์ƒํ•˜์„ธ์š”.
05:00
Mumbai, Beijing, New York, London.
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05:03
It's the hottest day that you've ever experienced.
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์˜ค๋Š˜์€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์—ฌํƒœ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•ด๋ณธ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋”์šด ๋‚ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:07
There's sun beating down,
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ํƒœ์–‘์ด ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ์ฌ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์—ด์„ ๋ฟœ๋Š” ์ฝ˜ํฌ๋ฆฌํŠธ์™€ ์œ ๋ฆฌ๋กœ ๋‘˜๋Ÿฌ์‹ธ์—ฌ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:08
there's concrete and glass all around you.
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05:11
Now imagine that same day --
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์ด์ œ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋‚ ์— ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ด
05:13
but it's six, eight, maybe 10 to 12 degrees warmer
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6, 8, 10, 12๋„ ๋” ๋†’๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.
05:18
on that day during that heat wave.
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05:20
That's the kind of thing we're going to experience
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ์ด 4๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒช๊ฒŒ ๋  ์ผ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:23
under a four-degree global average temperature scenario.
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05:27
And the problem with these extremes,
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ทน๋‹จ์ ์ธ ์˜จ๋„ ๋ฐ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋‹ฅ์น  ์ž์—ฐ์žฌํ•ด์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ ์€
05:29
and not just the temperature extremes,
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05:31
but also the extremes in terms of storms and other climate impacts,
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05:35
is our infrastructure is just not set up to deal with these sorts of events.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์‹œ์„ค์ด ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๋Œ€๋น„ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:40
So our roads and our rail networks
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด ๋„๋กœ์™€ ์ฒ ๋กœ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ์— ๋งž์ถ”์–ด
05:42
have been designed to last for a long time
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05:44
and withstand only certain amounts of impacts
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์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๋Š” ์ ๋‹น๋Ÿ‰์˜ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ๋งŒ์„ ๊ฒฌ๋””๋ฉด์„œ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์œ ์ง€๋˜๋„๋ก ์„ค๊ณ„๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:47
in different parts of the world.
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05:48
And this is going to be extremely challenged.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋‹ฅ์ณ์˜ฌ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์ด๋ฅผ ๋›ฐ์–ด๋„˜์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:51
Our power stations are expected to be cooled by water
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๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๋Š” ํŠน์ •ํ•œ ์˜จ๋„์˜ ๋ฌผ๋กœ ๋ƒ‰๊ฐ์‹œ์ผœ์•ผ๋งŒ
05:54
to a certain temperature to remain effective and resilient.
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ํšจ์œจ์ ์ด๊ณ  ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ์šด์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์„ค๊ณ„๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:58
And our buildings are designed to be comfortable
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๋นŒ๋”ฉ์€ ํŠน์ •ํ•œ ์˜จ๋„ ๋ฒ”์œ„์—์„œ ์•ˆ์ •์ ์œผ๋กœ ์„œ์žˆ๋„๋ก ์„ค๊ณ„๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:01
within a particular temperature range.
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06:03
And this is all going to be significantly challenged
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4๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์„ค๊ณ„๋Š” ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ์œ„ํ˜‘์„ ๋ฐ›์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:06
under a four-degree-type scenario.
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06:08
Our infrastructure has not been designed to cope with this.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์‹œ์„ค์€ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์— ๋Œ€๋น„ํ•˜์—ฌ ์„ค๊ณ„๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:14
So if we go back, also thinking about four degrees,
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์ด์ œ 4๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ƒ๊ธธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”
06:18
it's not just the direct impacts,
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๊ฐ„์ ‘์ ์ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋„ ์•Œ์•„๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:20
but also some indirect impacts.
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06:22
So if we take food security, for example.
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์‹๋Ÿ‰์•ˆ๋ณด์—์„œ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:25
Maize and wheat yields
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ผ๋ถ€ ์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์˜จ์ด 4๋„ ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜๋ฉด
06:28
in some parts of the world
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06:29
are expected to be up to 40 percent lower
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์˜ฅ์ˆ˜์ˆ˜์™€ ๋ฐ€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ 40% ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ 
06:33
under a four-degree scenario,
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06:35
rice up to 30 percent lower.
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์Œ€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ 30% ๊ฐ์†Œํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:38
This will be absolutely devastating for global food security.
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋Š” ์ „์„ธ๊ณ„ ์‹๋Ÿ‰์•ˆ๋ณด์— ํฐ ์žฌ์•™์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:42
So all in all, the kinds of impacts anticipated
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๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์ „์ฒด์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณผ ๋•Œ 4๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ํ•˜์— ์ƒ๊ธธ ์ผ๋“ค์€
06:45
under this four-degree centigrade scenario
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06:49
are going to be incompatible with global organized living.
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ๊ณต๋™์ฒด์— ํฐ ์œ„ํ˜‘์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:55
So back to our trajectories and our graphs of four degrees and two degrees.
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๋‹ค์‹œ 4๋„ ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ 2๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„๋กœ ๋Œ์•„์˜ต์‹œ๋‹ค.
07:00
Is it reasonable still to focus on the two-degree path?
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ 2๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ฒฝ๋กœ์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•  ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
07:04
There are quite a lot of my colleagues and other scientists
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์ƒ๋‹น์ˆ˜์˜ ํ•™๊ณ„ ๋™๋ฃŒ๋“ค์ด๋‚˜ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค์ด ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ
07:07
who would say that it's now too late to avoid a two-degree warming.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 2๋„ ์ƒ์Šน์„ ํ”ผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‹œ์ ์„ ์ด๋ฏธ ์ง€๋‚˜์ณค๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:11
But I would just like to draw on my own research
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ €๋Š” ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ง์ ‘ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•œ
07:14
on energy systems, on food systems,
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ, ์‹ํ’ˆ ์ฒด๊ณ„, ํ•ญ๊ณต, ํ•ด์šด์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด,
07:17
aviation and also shipping,
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07:19
just to say that I think there is still a small fighting chance
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์•„์ง ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ์ ๊ฒŒ๋‚˜๋งˆ
2๋„ ์˜จ๋„ ์ƒ์Šน์„ ํ”ผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ธฐํšŒ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:23
of avoiding this two-degree dangerous climate change.
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07:27
But we really need to get to grips with the numbers
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๋‹ค๋งŒ ์ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์ˆ˜์น˜๋“ค์„ ์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ์ฝ์„ ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:29
to work out how to do it.
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07:31
So if you focus in on this trajectory and these graphs,
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„๋“ค์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด, ๋…ธ๋ž€ ์› ์•ˆ์—
07:35
the yellow circle there highlights that the departure
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4๋„ ์˜จ๋„์ƒ์Šน์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๋Š” ๋นจ๊ฐ„ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ์™€
2๋„ ์˜จ๋„์ƒ์Šน์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๋Š” ์ดˆ๋ก์ƒ‰ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ๊ฐ€
07:38
from the red four-degree pathway
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07:40
to the two-degree green pathway is immediate.
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์ˆœ๊ฐ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌ๋˜๋Š” ์ง€์ ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:45
And that's because of cumulative emissions,
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์ด๋Š” ๋ˆ„์  ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ํƒ„์†Œ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์— ์˜ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:48
or the carbon budget.
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07:49
So in other words, because of the lights and the projectors
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์ž๋ฉด ์ด๊ณณ ํšŒ์žฅ์˜ ์กฐ๋ช…๊ณผ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํ„ฐ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์ „๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜๋ฉด
07:53
that are on in this room right now,
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์ด์‚ฐํ™”ํƒ„์†Œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ ,
07:55
the CO2 that is going into our atmosphere
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07:57
as a result of that electricity consumption
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์ด ์ด์‚ฐํ™”ํƒ„์†Œ๋Š” ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ์ค‘์— ๋งค์šฐ ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๋‚จ์•„์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:59
lasts a very long time.
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08:01
Some of it will be in our atmosphere for a century, maybe much longer.
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์ผ๋ถ€๋Š” ํ•œ ์„ธ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ, ๋˜๋Š” ๊ทธ ์ด์ƒ์„ ๋‚จ์•„์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:05
It will accumulate, and greenhouse gases tend to be cumulative.
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๋‚จ์•„์žˆ๋Š” ์ด์‚ฐํ™”ํƒ„์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์Œ“์ด๋ฏ€๋กœ ์˜จ์‹ค๊ฐ€์Šค๋Š” ์ถ•์ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:09
And that tells us something about these trajectories.
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์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„์—์„œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:12
First of all, it tells us that it's the area under these curves that matter,
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์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ, ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ํŠน์ • ์‹œ์ ์—์„œ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰ ์ˆ˜์น˜๊ฐ€ ์–ผ๋งˆ์ธ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹Œ
08:16
not where we reach at a particular date in future.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„ ์•„๋ž˜์˜ ๋ฉด์ ์ด ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:19
And that's important, because it doesn't matter
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์ด ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ 2049๋…„์—
08:21
if we come up with some amazing whiz-bang technology
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•  ๋†€๋ผ์šด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ด๋„
08:24
to sort out our energy problem on the last day of 2049,
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๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์€ ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์ง€์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋Š” ๋œป์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:28
just in the nick of time to sort things out.
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08:30
Because in the meantime, emissions will have accumulated.
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๊ทธ ์ „๊นŒ์ง€ ์ด์‚ฐํ™”ํƒ„์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์ถ•์ ๋˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:34
So if we continue on this red, four-degree centigrade scenario pathway,
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๋นจ๊ฐ„ ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚œ 4๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค ๊ณก์„ ์„ ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๋”ฐ๋ผ๊ฐˆ์ˆ˜๋ก
08:40
the longer we continue on it,
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08:42
that will need to be made up for in later years
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๊ทธ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์€ ๋‚˜์ค‘์— ๋”์šฑ ๊ฐ€์ค‘๋˜์–ด
08:45
to keep the same carbon budget, to keep the same area under the curve,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„ ์•„๋ž˜์˜ ๋ฉด์ , ์ฆ‰ ํƒ„์†Œ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์„ ๊ฐ™๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ์ธ
08:49
which means that that trajectory, the red one there, becomes steeper.
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๋นจ๊ฐ„ ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚œ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„๋Š” ๋” ๊ฐ€ํŒŒ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:54
So in other words, if we don't reduce emissions in the short to medium term,
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๋‹ค๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•˜๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ค‘โ€ข๋‹จ๊ธฐ ๋‚ด์— ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ค„์ด์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด
08:57
then we'll have to make more significant year-on-year emission reductions.
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ํ›„์— ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋” ๊ทน๋‹จ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ค„์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:02
We also know that we have to decarbonize our energy system.
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๋˜ํ•œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ํƒˆํƒ„์†Œํ™”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ๋„ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:06
But if we don't start to cut emissions in the short to medium term,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ค‘โ€ข๋‹จ๊ธฐ ๋‚ด์— ์ค„์ด๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด
09:10
then we will have to do that even sooner.
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์„ ๋”์šฑ ์•ž๋‹น๊ฒจ์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:13
So this poses really big challenges for us.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ํฐ ๊ณผ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ์–ด์ง„ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:18
The other thing it does is tells us something about energy policy.
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๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ, ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ •์ฑ…์˜ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ ์žก์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:21
If you live in a part of the world where per capita emissions are already high,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์ธ๊ตฌ ๋Œ€ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ ๋น„์œจ์ด ๋†’์€ ์ง€์—ญ์— ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
09:25
it points us towards reducing energy demand.
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์ง€์—ญ์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ˆ˜์š”๋ฅผ ์ค„์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:29
And that's because with all the will in the world,
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์ด๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ๋ณตํ•ฉํ•œ ์ดํ•ด๊ด€๊ณ„๋กœ ์ธํ•˜์—ฌ
09:32
the large-scale engineering infrastructure
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ํƒˆํƒ„์†Œํ™”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋Œ€ํ˜• ๊ณต์—… ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์‹œ์„ค์˜ ์„ค์น˜๊ฐ€
09:34
that we need to roll out rapidly
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09:36
to decarbonize the supply side of our energy system
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09:40
is just simply not going to happen in time.
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๋‹จ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:42
So it doesn't matter whether we choose nuclear power
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ์›์ž๋ ฅ ๋ฐœ์ „, ํƒ„์†Œํฌ์ง‘ ๋ฐ ์ €์žฅ๊ธฐ์ˆ ,
09:45
or carbon capture and storage,
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09:47
upscale our biofuel production,
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๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค์—ฐ๋ฃŒ, ํ’๋ ฅ ๋ฐœ์ „, ์กฐ๋ ฅ ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ์„ ํƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์˜๋ฏธ๊ฐ€ ์—†๋Š”๋ฐ
09:49
or go for a much bigger roll-out of wind turbines and wave turbines.
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์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ํ•„์š”๋กœ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:53
All of that will take time.
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09:55
So because it's the area under the curve that matters,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„ ์•„๋ž˜์˜ ๋ฉด์ ์ด ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํšจ์œจ๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
09:58
we need to focus on energy efficiency,
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10:00
but also on energy conservation -- in other words, using less energy.
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋ณด์กด, ์ฆ‰ ๋ณด๋‹ค ์ ์€ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:05
And if we do that, that also means
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์†Œ๋น„๋ฅผ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ๋ฐ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
10:07
that as we continue to roll out the supply-side technology,
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ฐœ์„ ์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ
10:11
we will have less of a job to do if we've actually managed
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ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋Ÿ‰์ด ์ ์–ด์ง€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—,
10:14
to reduce our energy consumption,
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10:16
because we will then need less infrastructure on the supply side.
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๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ฐœ์„ ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ˆ˜๊ณ ๋„ ์ค„์–ด๋“ค ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:21
Another issue that we really need to grapple with
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๋ณต์ง€์™€ ํ˜•ํ‰์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋„ ๊ฐ„๊ณผํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์•ˆ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:24
is the issue of well-being and equity.
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10:27
There are many parts of the world where the standard of living needs to rise.
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์ƒํ™œ์ˆ˜์ค€์˜ ๊ฐœ์„ ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ์ด ๋งŽ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:33
Bbut with energy systems currently reliant on fossil fuel,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ํ˜„์žฌ๋Š” ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ํ™”์„์—ฐ๋ฃŒ์— ์˜์กดํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
10:38
as those economies grow so will emissions.
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๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์„ฑ์žฅํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰๋„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:41
And now, if we're all constrained by the same amount of carbon budget,
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์ „์„ธ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ™์ด ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ผ์ •๋Ÿ‰์˜ ํƒ„์†Œ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์ด ์ฃผ์–ด์ง€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—,
10:44
that means that if some parts of the world's emissions are needing to rise,
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์–ด๋–ค ์ง€์—ญ์ด ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋Š˜๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๋ฉด
10:48
then other parts of the world's emissions need to reduce.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ค„์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:53
So that poses very significant challenges for wealthy nations.
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์ด๋Š” ๋ถ€๊ตญ์— ๋งŽ์€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์•ˆ๊น๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:57
Because according to our research,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ์˜ํ•˜๋ฉด, ์ธ๊ตฌ ๋Œ€ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ ๋น„์œจ์ด ๋†’์€
11:00
if you're in a country where per capita emissions are really high --
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11:03
so North America, Europe, Australia --
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๋ถ์•„๋ฉ”๋ฆฌ์นด, ์œ ๋Ÿฝ, ์˜ค์ŠคํŠธ๋ ˆ์ผ๋ฆฌ์•„์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ณณ์€
11:07
emissions reductions of the order of 10 percent per year,
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์„ญ์”จ2๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ํ”ผํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
11:11
and starting immediately, will be required for a good chance
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๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ฆ‰์‹œ 10% ์ค„์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:15
of avoiding the two-degree target.
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11:18
Let me just put that into context.
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๋” ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‰ฝ๊ฒŒ ์•Œ์•„๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:19
The economist Nicholas Stern
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๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž์ธ ๋‹ˆ์ฝœ๋ผ์Šค ์Šคํ„ด์— ์˜ํ•˜๋ฉด
11:21
said that emission reductions of more than one percent per year
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์—ฐ๋‹น ์ด์‚ฐํ™”ํƒ„์†Œ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์ด 1% ์ด์ƒ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋Š”
11:25
had only ever been associated with economic recession or upheaval.
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๊ฒฝ์ œํ›„ํ‡ด๋‚˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ๋™์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋˜ ๋•Œ๋ฐ–์— ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:31
So this poses huge challenges for the issue of economic growth,
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์‚ฌํšŒ๊ฐ€ ๊ณ ํƒ„์†Œ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์‹œ์„ค์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰๋„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฏ€๋กœ,
11:37
because if we have our high carbon infrastructure in place,
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๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์— ํฐ ์ง€์žฅ์ด ์ƒ๊ธธ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:41
it means that if our economies grow,
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11:44
then so do our emissions.
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11:46
So I'd just like to take a quote from a paper
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์ €์™€ ์ผ€๋นˆ ์•ค๋”์Šจ์ด 2011๋…„์— ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•œ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์„ ์ธ์šฉํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:48
by myself and Kevin Anderson back in 2011
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11:52
where we said that to avoid the two-degree framing of dangerous climate change,
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"2๋„ ์˜จ๋„์ƒ์Šน์„ ๋ง‰๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
๋ถ€๊ตญ๋“ค์€ ๊ธด์ถ•์žฌ์ •์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋‹น๋ถ„๊ฐ„ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ๋ฉˆ์ถฐ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
11:58
economic growth needs to be exchanged at least temporarily
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12:02
for a period of planned austerity in wealthy nations.
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12:08
This is a really difficult message to take,
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์ œ ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋•Œ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ•ด์™”๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ธฐ์—
12:12
because what it suggests is that we really need to do things differently.
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์„ ๋œป ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์ด๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:17
This is not about just incremental change.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ ์ง„์ ์ธ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋งŒ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:21
This is about doing things differently, about whole system change,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ํ‰๋ฒ”ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์˜จ ์ผ์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ,
์ „์ฒด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ,
12:26
and sometimes it's about doing less things.
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๊ฐ€๋”์€ ๋ฌด์–ธ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๋œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:30
And this applies to all of us,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋‘์—๊ฒŒ ์ ์šฉ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:32
whatever sphere of influence we have.
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12:35
So it could be from writing to our local politician
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๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ ์ •์น˜์ธ์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฑด์˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ,
12:38
to talking to our boss at work or being the boss at work,
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์ง์žฅ์—์„œ ์ƒ์‚ฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š” ์ƒ์‚ฌ๋กœ์„œ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ,
12:41
or talking with our friends and family, or, quite simply, changing our lifestyles.
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์ผ์ƒ์—์„œ ์นœ๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ€์กฑ๊ณผ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ,
๋˜๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ƒํ™œ ๋ฐฉ์‹์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:47
Because we really need to make significant change.
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์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ •๋ง ๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด์ผ ์ •๋„์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๊ฒช์–ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:50
At the moment, we're choosing a four-degree scenario.
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ํ˜„์žฌ๋กœ์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 4๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๋”ฐ๋ผ๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:55
If we really want to avoid the two-degree scenario,
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2๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ํ”ผํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
12:58
there really is no time like the present to act.
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์ง€๊ธˆ ๋‹น์žฅ์—๋ผ๋„ ํ–‰๋™์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:02
Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:03
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
13:12
Bruno Giussani: Alice, basically what you're saying,
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์•จ๋ฆฌ์Šค, ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๋งํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
13:15
the talk is, unless wealthy nations start cutting 10 percent per year
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๋ถ€๊ตญ๋“ค์ด 2020๋…„์ด๋‚˜ 2025๋…„์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
13:18
the emissions now, this year, not in 2020 or '25,
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์ง€๊ธˆ ๋‹น์žฅ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ 10% ์ค„์ด์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด
13:23
we are going to go straight to the four-plus-degree scenario.
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4๋„ ์ด์ƒ ์ƒ์Šน ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋กœ ์งํ–‰ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:28
I am wondering what's your take on the cut by 70 percent for 2070.
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2070๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ 70% ๊ฐ์ถ•ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜๊ฒฌ์„ ๋“ฃ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:31
Alice Bows-Larkin: Yeah, it's just nowhere near enough to avoid two degrees.
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๋„ค. ๊ทธ๊ฑด 2๋„ ์ƒ์Šน ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ํ”ผํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ๊ทผ์ ‘ํ•˜์ง€๋„ ๋ชปํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:35
One of the things that often --
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์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ์˜ํ•ด
13:37
when there are these modeling studies that look at what we need to do,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐˆ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์ด ๋ช…ํ™•ํ•ด์กŒ์Œ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ ,
13:40
is they tend to hugely overestimate how quickly other countries in the world
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๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ „์„ธ๊ณ„๊ฐ€
๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋‚™๊ด€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:45
can start to reduce emissions.
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13:46
So they make kind of heroic assumptions about that.
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์ด๋Š” ์ง€๋‚˜์นœ ์˜์›…์ฃผ์˜์  ์‹œ๊ฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:50
The more we do that, because it's the cumulative emissions,
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์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํ• ์ˆ˜๋ก ๋ถ„๋ช…ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€, ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์ถ•์ ๋˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
13:52
the short-term stuff that really matters.
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๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ๋Œ€์ฑ…์ด ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:54
So it does make a huge difference.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์•ผ ์ •๋ง ๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊น๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:56
If a big country like China, for example,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด ์ค‘๊ตญ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋Œ€ํ˜•๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€
์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ๋ฉˆ์ถ”๋Š” ์‹œ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ช‡ ๋…„๋งŒ ๋Šฆ์ถ”์–ด๋„
13:58
continues to grow even for just a few extra years,
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14:00
that will make a big difference to when we need to decarbonize.
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ํƒˆํƒ„์†Œํ™”๋ฅผ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ์‹œ์ ์ด ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๋ณ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:03
So I don't think we can even say when it will be,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ ์€ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ณด๊ณ 
14:06
because it all depends on what we have to do in the short term.
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๋‹จ๊ธฐ๋กœ ์–ด๋– ํ•œ ํ–‰๋™์„ ์ทจํ•  ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:09
But I think we've just got huge scope, and we don't pull those levers
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์—๋„ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋“ค์€ ์•ˆํƒ€๊น๊ฒŒ๋„ ๊ฑฐ์‹œ์  ์‹œ๊ฐ์œผ๋กœ
14:12
that allow us to reduce the energy demand, which is a shame.
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ˆ˜์š”๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ค„์ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ˆœ์„ ๋ฐŸ์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:15
BG: Alice, thank you for coming to TED and sharing this data.
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์•จ๋ฆฌ์Šค, TED์— ๋‚˜์™€์„œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๊ณต์œ ํ•ด์ค˜์„œ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:18
ABL: Thank you.
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
14:20
(Applause)
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์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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