Climate Change Is Happening. Here's How We Adapt | Alice Bows-Larkin | TED Talks

124,155 views ・ 2015-10-27

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μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

λ²ˆμ—­: Bill Kil κ²€ν† : Jihyeon J. Kim
00:12
Over our lifetimes,
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μΌμƒλ™μ•ˆ λͺ¨λ‘ 기후변화에 κΈ°μ—¬ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:14
we've all contributed to climate change.
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00:17
Actions, choices and behaviors
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ ν•΄μ˜¨ 행동, 선택, μΌμƒμƒν™œλ“€μ΄
00:21
will have led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
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μ˜¨μ‹€κ°€μŠ€μ˜ λ°°μΆœμ„ 촉진해 μ™”μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:26
And I think that that's quite a powerful thought.
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 생각은 μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²Œ κ½€λ‚˜ κ°•λ ₯ν•œ 메세지λ₯Ό μ€λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:29
But it does have the potential to make us feel guilty
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ λ™μ‹œμ— μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 생각을 ν•˜λ‹€λ³΄λ©΄
μš°λ¦¬κ°€ λ§Œλ“€μ–΄μ˜¨ λͺ¨λ“  결정듀에,
00:32
when we think about decisions we might have made
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μ˜ˆμ»¨λŒ€, μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ–΄λ””λ‘œ, μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜, μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 여행을 λ‹€λ‹ˆλŠ”μ§€,
00:35
around where to travel to,
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00:37
how often and how,
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00:40
about the energy that we choose to use
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κ°€μ •κ³Ό 직μž₯μ—μ„œλŠ” μ–΄λ–€ μ—λ„ˆμ§€λ₯Ό μ‚¬μš©ν•˜λŠ”μ§€,
00:43
in our homes or in our workplaces,
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00:46
or quite simply the lifestyles that we lead and enjoy.
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μ•„λ‹ˆλ©΄ λ‹¨μˆœν•œ μƒν™œλ°©μ‹μ—λ„ 죄책감을 λŠλ‚„ μˆ˜κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:51
But we can also turn that thought on its head,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ 사고λ₯Ό μ™„μ „νžˆ μ „ν™˜ν•΄μ„œ
00:55
and think that if we've had such a profound
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 이미 기후에 뢀정적인 영ν–₯을 μ€€ 것을 μΈμ •ν•˜κ³ ,
00:57
but a negative impact on our climate already,
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01:01
then we have an opportunity to influence the amount of future climate change
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μ΄μ œλΆ€ν„°λΌλ„ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 영ν–₯을 μ€„μ—¬μ„œ λ‹₯쳐올 κΈ°ν›„ λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό 쀄일 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ”
01:06
that we will need to adapt to.
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결둠을 얻을 μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€
01:09
So we have a choice.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 선택지λ₯Ό κ°–κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:10
We can either choose to start to take climate change seriously,
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λ¨Όμ € μ΄μ œλΆ€ν„°λΌλ„ κΈ°ν›„ λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό μ‹¬κ°ν•˜κ²Œ λ°›μ•„λ“€μ—¬μ„œ
01:15
and significantly cut and mitigate our greenhouse gas emissions,
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μ˜¨μ‹€κ°€μŠ€ λ°°μΆœμ„ ν™•μ—°νžˆ λ‹¨μ ˆν•˜κ±°λ‚˜ μ™„ν™”ν•¨μœΌλ‘œμ¨
01:19
and then we will have to adapt to less of the climate change impacts in future.
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λ‹₯쳐올 κΈ°ν›„λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό 쀄일 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:25
Alternatively, we can continue to really ignore the climate change problem.
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λ°˜λŒ€λ‘œ μ΄μ œκΉŒμ§€ κ·Έλž˜μ™”λ“― κΈ°ν›„λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό λ¬΄μ‹œν•  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:30
But if we do that, we are also choosing
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ ν•œλ‹€λ©΄ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” λ―Έλž˜μ—
01:33
to adapt to very much more powerful climate impacts in future.
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훨씬 ν˜Ήλ…ν•œ κΈ°ν›„λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό κ²ͺμ–΄μ•Ό ν•  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:38
And not only that.
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그뿐만이 μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:39
As people who live in countries with high per capita emissions,
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인ꡬ λŒ€ μ˜¨μ‹€κ°€μŠ€ 배좜 λΉ„μœ¨μ΄ 높은 κ΅­κ°€μ˜ κ΅­λ―Όλ“€λ‘œμ„œ
01:42
we're making that choice on behalf of others as well.
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우리의 선택은 μ„Έκ³„μ˜ λ‹€λ₯Έ μ΄λ“€μ—κ²Œλ„ 영ν–₯을 λ―ΈμΉ  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:47
But the choice that we don't have
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ 이미 μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²ŒλŠ”
01:49
is a no climate change future.
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κΈ°ν›„λ³€ν™”κ°€ μΌμ–΄λ‚˜μ§€ μ•ŠλŠ” μ„ νƒμ§€λŠ” λ‚¨μ•„μžˆμ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:53
Over the last two decades,
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μ§€λ‚œ 20μ—¬ λ…„κ°„ μ •λΆ€ ν˜‘μƒκ°€λ“€κ³Ό μ •μ±… μž…μ•ˆμžλ“€μ€ κΈ°ν›„λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό λ…Όμ˜ν•˜λ©΄μ„œ
01:55
our government negotiators and policymakers have been coming together
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01:59
to discuss climate change,
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02:01
and they've been focused on avoiding a two-degree centigrade warming
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μ‚°μ—…ν™” 전보닀 기온이 섭씨2도 μƒμŠΉν•˜λŠ” μ‹œλ‚˜λ¦¬μ˜€λ₯Ό
02:05
above pre-industrial levels.
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ν”Όν•˜λŠ” 것을 λͺ©ν‘œλ‘œ ν•΄μ™”μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:08
That's the temperature that's associated with dangerous impacts
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μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ 섭씨2λ„λŠ”
인λ₯˜μ™€ ν™˜κ²½μ— λ‹€λ°©λ©΄μ—μ„œ μœ„ν—˜ν•œ μ§€ν‘œκ°€ λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚  수 μžˆλŠ” μ˜¨λ„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:12
across a range of different indicators,
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02:15
to humans and to the environment.
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02:17
So two degrees centigrade constitutes dangerous climate change.
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즉 2λ„λŠ” μœ„ν—˜ν•œ κΈ°ν›„λ³€ν™”μ˜ κΈ°μ€€μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:22
But dangerous climate change can be subjective.
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μœ„ν—˜ν•œ κΈ°ν›„λ³€ν™”μ˜ 기쀀은 주관적인 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:24
So if we think about an extreme weather event
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극단적인 κΈ°ν›„ν˜„μƒμ΄ 세계 각 ꡭ에 λ°œμƒν•œλ‹€κ³  κ°€μ •ν•  λ•Œ
02:27
that might happen in some part of the world,
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02:29
and if that happens in a part of the world where there is good infrastructure,
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이 ν˜„μƒμ΄ μ‚¬νšŒμ  기반이 잘 λ˜μ–΄μžˆκ³ 
02:33
where there are people that are well-insured and so on,
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지역 인ꡬ도 λ³΄ν—˜μœΌλ‘œ 잘 보호 λ°›λŠ” 지역에 λ°œμƒν•œλ‹€λ©΄
02:36
then that impact can be disruptive.
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κ·Έ 영ν–₯은 μ‚¬νšŒμ— 지μž₯을 μ£ΌλŠ” 정도일 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:40
It can cause upset, it could cause cost.
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μ†Œμš”μ‚¬νƒœκ°€ μƒκΈ°κ±°λ‚˜ μΆ”κ°€λΉ„μš©μ΄ 생길 수 있고
02:43
It could even cause some deaths.
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λͺ‡ λͺ…μ˜ μ‚¬μƒμžκ°€ 생길 μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:45
But if that exact same weather event happens in a part of the world
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ λ™μΌν•œ ν˜„μƒμ΄ μ‚¬νšŒμ  기반이 μ—΄μ•…ν•˜κ³ 
02:49
where there is poor infrastructure,
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02:51
or where people are not well-insured,
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지역 인ꡬ도 λ³΄ν—˜μ˜ 보호λ₯Ό 잘 받지 λͺ»ν•˜κ±°λ‚˜
02:53
or they're not having good support networks,
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μ‚¬νšŒμ  지지 체계가 μ•½ν•œ 지역에 λ°œμƒν•œλ‹€λ©΄
02:55
then that same climate change impact could be devastating.
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λ™μΌν•œ ν˜„μƒμ΄ 치λͺ…적인 영ν–₯을 주게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:00
It could cause a significant loss of home,
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μƒλ‹Ήμˆ˜κ°€ 주거지λ₯Ό μžƒμ„ 것이고, μƒλ‹Ήμˆ˜μ˜ μ‚¬λ§μžκ°€ λ°œμƒν•  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:03
but it could also cause significant amounts of death.
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03:07
So this is a graph of the CO2 emissions at the left-hand side
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이것은 μ‚°μ—…ν˜λͺ…λΆ€ν„° ν˜„μž¬κΉŒμ§€ ν™”μ„μ—°λ£Œμ˜ μ‚¬μš©κ³Ό μ‚°μ—…λ°œμ „μ— μ˜ν•œ
03:11
from fossil fuel and industry,
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03:13
and time from before the Industrial Revolution
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μ΄μ‚°ν™”νƒ„μ†Œμ˜ 연도별 λ°°μΆœλŸ‰ κ·Έλž˜ν”„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:16
out towards the present day.
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03:18
And what's immediately striking about this
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μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ κ°€μž₯ 좩격적인 사싀은
03:21
is that emissions have been growing exponentially.
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λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ΄ κΈ°ν•˜κΈ‰μˆ˜μ μœΌλ‘œ μ¦κ°€ν•œλ‹€λŠ” μ‚¬μ‹€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:25
If we focus in on a shorter period of time from 1950,
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1950λ…„ 이후 μ‹œμ μ„ μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³΄λ©΄,
03:29
we have established in 1988
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1988λ…„μ—λŠ” κΈ°ν›„ 변화에 κ΄€ν•œ μ •λΆ€κ°„ νŒ¨λ„μ„,
03:32
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
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03:35
the Rio Earth Summit in 1992,
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1992λ…„μ—λŠ” λ¦¬μ˜€μ§€κ΅¬μ •μƒν¬μ˜λ₯Ό κ°œμ΅œν–ˆκ³ 
03:39
then rolling on a few years, in 2009 we had the Copenhagen Accord,
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λͺ‡ λ…„ λ’€ 2009λ…„μ—λŠ” μ½”νŽœν•˜κ²ν˜‘μ •μ—μ„œ
03:44
where it established avoiding a two-degree temperature rise
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세계곡동체적 견지와 과학적 방법에 μ˜ν•œ 기온 2도 μƒμŠΉ 방지λ₯Ό ν˜‘μ˜ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:48
in keeping with the science and on the basis of equity.
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03:52
And then in 2012, we had the Rio+20 event.
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그리고 2012λ…„μ—λŠ” Rio+20 행사가 μžˆμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:56
And all the way through, during all of these meetings
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 단체 행동듀과 λ‹€λ₯Έ λ…Έλ ₯듀에 λΆˆκ΅¬ν•˜κ³  λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ€ κΎΈμ€€νžˆ μ¦κ°€ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:59
and many others as well,
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04:01
emissions have continued to rise.
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04:04
And if we focus on our historical emission trend in recent years,
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였히렀 ν˜„μž¬κΉŒμ§€μ˜ 배좜 좔세와 μ„Έκ³„κ²½μ œ 동ν–₯을 쒅합해보면,
04:10
and we put that together with our understanding
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04:12
of the direction of travel in our global economy,
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04:15
then we are much more on track
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였히렀 μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 기온 2도 μƒμŠΉλ§Œμ΄ μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
04:17
for a four-degree centigrade global warming
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04:20
than we are for the two-degree centigrade.
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4도 μƒμŠΉμ„ ν–₯ν•΄ λ‚˜μ•„κ°€κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:24
Now, let's just pause for a moment
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μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ μž μ‹œ λ…Όμ˜λ₯Ό λ©ˆμΆ”κ³ 
04:26
and think about this four-degree global average temperature.
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지ꡬ ν‰κ· κΈ°μ˜¨μ΄ 4도 μƒμŠΉν•  λ•Œ 생길 일듀을 μ•Œμ•„λ³΄κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:30
Most of our planet is actually made up of the sea.
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μ§€κ΅¬μ˜ ν‘œλ©΄μ€ λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„ λ°”λ‹€λ‘œ 이루어져 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:34
Now, because the sea has a greater thermal inertia than the land,
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λ°”λ‹€λŠ” μœ‘μ§€λ³΄λ‹€ 비열이 λ†’κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ—
04:38
the average temperatures over land are actually going to be higher
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μœ‘μ§€μ˜ 평균 κΈ°μ˜¨μ€ 바닀보닀 λ†’μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:41
than they are over the sea.
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04:43
The second thing is that we as human beings don't experience
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또, 인간은 μ§€κ΅¬μ˜ ν‰κ· κΈ°μ˜¨μ„ μ§μ ‘μ μœΌλ‘œ λŠλΌμ§€ λͺ»ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:47
global average temperatures.
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04:49
We experience hot days, cold days,
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 단지 κΈ°μ˜¨μ„
λ”μš΄ λ‚ , μΆ”μš΄ λ‚ , λΉ„μ˜€λŠ” λ‚ λ‘œλ§Œ λ‚˜λˆ„μ–΄μ„œ λŠλ‚λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:52
rainy days, especially if you live in Manchester like me.
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μ €μ²˜λŸΌ λ§¨μ²΄μŠ€ν„°μ— μ‚°λ‹€λ©΄ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 날씨 λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό 잘 λŠλ‚„ 수 있죠.
(μ›ƒμŒ)
04:55
So now put yourself in a city center.
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이제 μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ λ„μ‹œ ν•œκ°€μš΄λ° μ„œμžˆλ‹€κ³  κ°€μ •ν•©μ‹œλ‹€.
04:58
Imagine somewhere in the world:
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뭄바이, 베이징, λ‰΄μš•, 런던 λ“± 세계 각ꡭ에 μžˆλ‹€κ³  μƒμƒν•˜μ„Έμš”.
05:00
Mumbai, Beijing, New York, London.
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05:03
It's the hottest day that you've ever experienced.
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μ˜€λŠ˜μ€ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ μ—¬νƒœ κ²½ν—˜ν•΄λ³Έ κ°€μž₯ λ”μš΄ λ‚ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:07
There's sun beating down,
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νƒœμ–‘μ΄ 내리쬐고 μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ 열을 λΏœλŠ” μ½˜ν¬λ¦¬νŠΈμ™€ 유리둜 λ‘˜λŸ¬μ‹Έμ—¬ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:08
there's concrete and glass all around you.
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05:11
Now imagine that same day --
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이제 같은 날에 기온이
05:13
but it's six, eight, maybe 10 to 12 degrees warmer
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6, 8, 10, 12도 더 λ†’λ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•΄λ³΄μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.
05:18
on that day during that heat wave.
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05:20
That's the kind of thing we're going to experience
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그런 것이 4도 μƒμŠΉ μ‹œλ‚˜λ¦¬μ˜€μ—μ„œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ κ²ͺ게 될 μΌλ“€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:23
under a four-degree global average temperature scenario.
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05:27
And the problem with these extremes,
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 극단적인 μ˜¨λ„ 및 ν•¨κ»˜ λ‹₯μΉ  μžμ—°μž¬ν•΄μ˜ λ¬Έμ œμ μ€
05:29
and not just the temperature extremes,
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05:31
but also the extremes in terms of storms and other climate impacts,
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05:35
is our infrastructure is just not set up to deal with these sorts of events.
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우리 μ‚¬νšŒ κΈ°λ°˜μ‹œμ„€μ΄ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 상황에 λŒ€λΉ„ν•˜μ§€ λͺ»ν•˜κ³  μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:40
So our roads and our rail networks
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예λ₯Ό λ“€μ–΄ λ„λ‘œμ™€ 철둜 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ€, μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ‚¬λŠ” 지역에 λ§žμΆ”μ–΄
05:42
have been designed to last for a long time
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05:44
and withstand only certain amounts of impacts
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μ˜ˆμƒλ˜λŠ” μ λ‹ΉλŸ‰μ˜ μΆ©κ²©λ§Œμ„ κ²¬λ””λ©΄μ„œ μž₯κΈ°κ°„ μœ μ§€λ˜λ„λ‘ μ„€κ³„λ˜μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:47
in different parts of the world.
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05:48
And this is going to be extremely challenged.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ λ‹₯쳐올 λ¬Έμ œλŠ” 이λ₯Ό λ›°μ–΄λ„˜μ„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:51
Our power stations are expected to be cooled by water
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λ°œμ „μ†ŒλŠ” νŠΉμ •ν•œ μ˜¨λ„μ˜ 물둜 λƒ‰κ°μ‹œμΌœμ•Όλ§Œ
05:54
to a certain temperature to remain effective and resilient.
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효율적이고 μ§€μ†μ μœΌλ‘œ 운용 κ°€λŠ₯ν•˜κ²Œ μ„€κ³„λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:58
And our buildings are designed to be comfortable
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λΉŒλ”©μ€ νŠΉμ •ν•œ μ˜¨λ„ λ²”μœ„μ—μ„œ μ•ˆμ •μ μœΌλ‘œ μ„œμžˆλ„λ‘ μ„€κ³„λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:01
within a particular temperature range.
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06:03
And this is all going to be significantly challenged
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4도 μƒμŠΉ μ‹œλ‚˜λ¦¬μ˜€μ—μ„œ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ μ„€κ³„λŠ” μ‹¬κ°ν•œ μœ„ν˜‘μ„ 받을 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:06
under a four-degree-type scenario.
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06:08
Our infrastructure has not been designed to cope with this.
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우리 μ‚¬νšŒ κΈ°λ°˜μ‹œμ„€μ€ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 사건에 λŒ€λΉ„ν•˜μ—¬ μ„€κ³„λ˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:14
So if we go back, also thinking about four degrees,
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이제 4도 μƒμŠΉ μ‹œλ‚˜λ¦¬μ˜€μ— μ˜ν•΄ 생길 수 μžˆλŠ”
06:18
it's not just the direct impacts,
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간접적인 영ν–₯도 μ•Œμ•„λ³΄κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:20
but also some indirect impacts.
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06:22
So if we take food security, for example.
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μ‹λŸ‰μ•ˆλ³΄μ—μ„œ 예λ₯Ό λ“€κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:25
Maize and wheat yields
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세계 일뢀 μ§€μ—­μ—μ„œλŠ” 기온이 4도 μƒμŠΉν•˜λ©΄
06:28
in some parts of the world
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06:29
are expected to be up to 40 percent lower
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μ˜₯μˆ˜μˆ˜μ™€ λ°€ μƒμ‚°λŸ‰μ€ 40% κ°μ†Œν•˜κ³ 
06:33
under a four-degree scenario,
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06:35
rice up to 30 percent lower.
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μŒ€ μƒμ‚°λŸ‰μ€ 30% κ°μ†Œν•  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:38
This will be absolutely devastating for global food security.
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ μ§€ν‘œλŠ” 전세계 μ‹λŸ‰μ•ˆλ³΄μ— 큰 μž¬μ•™μ΄ 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:42
So all in all, the kinds of impacts anticipated
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κ²°κ΅­ μ „μ²΄μ μœΌλ‘œ λ³Ό λ•Œ 4도 μƒμŠΉ μ‹œλ‚˜λ¦¬μ˜€ ν•˜μ— 생길 일듀은
06:45
under this four-degree centigrade scenario
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06:49
are going to be incompatible with global organized living.
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세계 곡동체에 큰 μœ„ν˜‘μ΄ 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:55
So back to our trajectories and our graphs of four degrees and two degrees.
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λ‹€μ‹œ 4도 μƒμŠΉκ³Ό 2도 μƒμŠΉ κ·Έλž˜ν”„λ‘œ λŒμ•„μ˜΅μ‹œλ‹€.
07:00
Is it reasonable still to focus on the two-degree path?
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μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²Œ 2도 μƒμŠΉ κ²½λ‘œμ— 집쀑할 μ΄μœ κ°€ μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
07:04
There are quite a lot of my colleagues and other scientists
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μƒλ‹Ήμˆ˜μ˜ 학계 λ™λ£Œλ“€μ΄λ‚˜ κ³Όν•™μžλ“€μ΄ λ§ν•˜κΈ°λ₯Ό
07:07
who would say that it's now too late to avoid a two-degree warming.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 2도 μƒμŠΉμ„ ν”Όν•  수 μžˆλŠ” μ‹œμ μ„ 이미 μ§€λ‚˜μ³€λ‹€κ³  ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:11
But I would just like to draw on my own research
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ €λŠ” μ œκ°€ 직접 μˆ˜ν–‰ν•œ
07:14
on energy systems, on food systems,
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μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œ, μ‹ν’ˆ 체계, 항곡, ν•΄μš΄μ— κ΄€ν•œ 연ꡬλ₯Ό λ“€μ–΄,
07:17
aviation and also shipping,
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07:19
just to say that I think there is still a small fighting chance
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아직 μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²Œ μ κ²Œλ‚˜λ§ˆ
2도 μ˜¨λ„ μƒμŠΉμ„ ν”Όν•  수 μžˆλŠ” κΈ°νšŒκ°€ μžˆλ‹€κ³  λ§ν•˜κ³ μž ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:23
of avoiding this two-degree dangerous climate change.
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07:27
But we really need to get to grips with the numbers
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λ‹€λ§Œ 이λ₯Ό μœ„ν•΄μ„œλŠ” μˆ˜μΉ˜λ“€μ„ μ •ν™•νžˆ 읽을 ν•„μš”κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:29
to work out how to do it.
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07:31
So if you focus in on this trajectory and these graphs,
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λ‹€μ‹œ κ·Έλž˜ν”„λ“€μ„ 보면, λ…Έλž€ 원 μ•ˆμ—
07:35
the yellow circle there highlights that the departure
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4도 μ˜¨λ„μƒμŠΉμ„ λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚΄λŠ” λΉ¨κ°„ κ²½λ‘œμ™€
2도 μ˜¨λ„μƒμŠΉμ„ λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚΄λŠ” μ΄ˆλ‘μƒ‰ κ²½λ‘œκ°€
07:38
from the red four-degree pathway
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07:40
to the two-degree green pathway is immediate.
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μˆœκ°„μ μœΌλ‘œ λΆ„λ¦¬λ˜λŠ” 지점을 확인할 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:45
And that's because of cumulative emissions,
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μ΄λŠ” λˆ„μ  λ°°μΆœλŸ‰κ³Ό νƒ„μ†Œ μ˜ˆμ‚°μ— μ˜ν•œ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:48
or the carbon budget.
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07:49
So in other words, because of the lights and the projectors
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예λ₯Ό λ“€μžλ©΄ 이곳 회μž₯의 μ‘°λͺ…κ³Ό ν”„λ‘œμ ν„°λ‘œ 인해 μ „κΈ°κ°€ μ‚¬μš©λ˜λ©΄
07:53
that are on in this room right now,
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μ΄μ‚°ν™”νƒ„μ†Œκ°€ 배좜될 것이고,
07:55
the CO2 that is going into our atmosphere
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07:57
as a result of that electricity consumption
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이 μ΄μ‚°ν™”νƒ„μ†ŒλŠ” λŒ€κΈ° 쀑에 맀우 였래 λ‚¨μ•„μžˆκ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:59
lasts a very long time.
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08:01
Some of it will be in our atmosphere for a century, maybe much longer.
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μΌλΆ€λŠ” ν•œ μ„ΈκΈ°λ₯Ό, λ˜λŠ” κ·Έ 이상을 λ‚¨μ•„μžˆμ„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:05
It will accumulate, and greenhouse gases tend to be cumulative.
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λ‚¨μ•„μžˆλŠ” μ΄μ‚°ν™”νƒ„μ†Œκ°€ μŒ“μ΄λ―€λ‘œ μ˜¨μ‹€κ°€μŠ€λŠ” μΆ•μ λ˜λŠ” κ²½ν–₯이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:09
And that tells us something about these trajectories.
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이λ₯Ό 톡해 κ·Έλž˜ν”„μ—μ„œ μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ 사싀을 μ•Œ 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:12
First of all, it tells us that it's the area under these curves that matter,
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첫 번째둜, 미래 νŠΉμ • μ‹œμ μ—μ„œ λ°°μΆœλŸ‰ μˆ˜μΉ˜κ°€ μ–Όλ§ˆμΈμ§€κ°€ μ•„λ‹Œ
08:16
not where we reach at a particular date in future.
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κ·Έλž˜ν”„ μ•„λž˜μ˜ 면적이 μ€‘μš”ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” 사싀을 μ•Œ 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:19
And that's important, because it doesn't matter
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이 κ²°κ³Όκ°€ μ€‘μš”ν•œ μ΄μœ λŠ” μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 2049년에
08:21
if we come up with some amazing whiz-bang technology
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μ—λ„ˆμ§€ 문제λ₯Ό ν•΄κ²°ν•  λ†€λΌμš΄ κΈ°μˆ μ„ κ°œλ°œν•œλ‹€κ³  해도
08:24
to sort out our energy problem on the last day of 2049,
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λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ€ 달라지지 μ•ŠλŠ”λ‹€λŠ” 뜻이기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:28
just in the nick of time to sort things out.
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08:30
Because in the meantime, emissions will have accumulated.
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κ·Έ μ „κΉŒμ§€ μ΄μ‚°ν™”νƒ„μ†Œκ°€ μΆ•μ λ˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:34
So if we continue on this red, four-degree centigrade scenario pathway,
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λΉ¨κ°„ μ„ μœΌλ‘œ λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚œ 4도 μƒμŠΉ μ‹œλ‚˜λ¦¬μ˜€ 곑선을 였래 λ”°λΌκ°ˆμˆ˜λ‘
08:40
the longer we continue on it,
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08:42
that will need to be made up for in later years
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κ·Έ 뢀담은 λ‚˜μ€‘μ— λ”μš± κ°€μ€‘λ˜μ–΄
08:45
to keep the same carbon budget, to keep the same area under the curve,
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κ·Έλž˜ν”„ μ•„λž˜μ˜ 면적, 즉 νƒ„μ†Œ μ˜ˆμ‚°μ„ κ°™κ²Œ ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•œ 경둜인
08:49
which means that that trajectory, the red one there, becomes steeper.
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λΉ¨κ°„ μ„ μœΌλ‘œ λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚œ κ·Έλž˜ν”„λŠ” 더 κ°€νŒŒλ₯΄κ²Œ κ°μ†Œν•΄μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:54
So in other words, if we don't reduce emissions in the short to medium term,
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λ‹€λ₯΄κ²Œ λ§ν•˜λ©΄ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 쀑‒단기 내에 λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ„ 쀄이지 μ•ŠλŠ”λ‹€λ©΄
08:57
then we'll have to make more significant year-on-year emission reductions.
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후에 λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ„ 더 κ·Ήλ‹¨μ μœΌλ‘œ 쀄여야 ν•œλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:02
We also know that we have to decarbonize our energy system.
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λ˜ν•œ μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ„ νƒˆνƒ„μ†Œν™”ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•œ λ…Έλ ₯도 ν•„μš”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:06
But if we don't start to cut emissions in the short to medium term,
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ κ²°κ΅­ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ„ 쀑‒단기 내에 쀄이기 μ‹œμž‘ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠμœΌλ©΄
09:10
then we will have to do that even sooner.
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ λ…Έλ ₯을 λ”μš± μ•žλ‹Ήκ²¨μ•Όλ§Œ ν•  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:13
So this poses really big challenges for us.
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μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²Œ 큰 κ³Όμ œκ°€ 주어진 것을 μ•Œ 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:18
The other thing it does is tells us something about energy policy.
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두 번째둜, μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ •μ±…μ˜ λ°©ν–₯을 μž‘μ„ 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:21
If you live in a part of the world where per capita emissions are already high,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ 인ꡬ λŒ€ 배좜 λΉ„μœ¨μ΄ 높은 지역에 μ‚΄κ³  μžˆλ‹€λ©΄
09:25
it points us towards reducing energy demand.
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μ§€μ—­μ˜ μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μˆ˜μš”λ₯Ό 쀄여야 ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:29
And that's because with all the will in the world,
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μ΄λŠ” μ„Έκ³„μ˜ λ³΅ν•©ν•œ μ΄ν•΄κ΄€κ³„λ‘œ μΈν•˜μ—¬
09:32
the large-scale engineering infrastructure
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μ—λ„ˆμ§€λ₯Ό νƒˆνƒ„μ†Œν™”ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•œ λŒ€ν˜• 곡업 κΈ°λ°˜μ‹œμ„€μ˜ μ„€μΉ˜κ°€
09:34
that we need to roll out rapidly
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09:36
to decarbonize the supply side of our energy system
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09:40
is just simply not going to happen in time.
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단기간에 μ΄λ£¨μ–΄μ§ˆ 수 μ—†κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:42
So it doesn't matter whether we choose nuclear power
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ―€λ‘œ μ›μžλ ₯ λ°œμ „, νƒ„μ†Œν¬μ§‘ 및 μ €μž₯기술,
09:45
or carbon capture and storage,
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09:47
upscale our biofuel production,
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λ°”μ΄μ˜€μ—°λ£Œ, 풍λ ₯ λ°œμ „, μ‘°λ ₯ λ°œμ „μ„ μ„ νƒν•˜λŠ” 것은 μ˜λ―Έκ°€ μ—†λŠ”λ°
09:49
or go for a much bigger roll-out of wind turbines and wave turbines.
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이것듀은 λͺ¨λ‘ μ‹œκ°„μ„ ν•„μš”λ‘œ ν•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:53
All of that will take time.
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09:55
So because it's the area under the curve that matters,
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κ·Έλž˜ν”„ μ•„λž˜μ˜ 면적이 μ€‘μš”ν•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ— μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ—λ„ˆμ§€ 효율뿐 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
09:58
we need to focus on energy efficiency,
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10:00
but also on energy conservation -- in other words, using less energy.
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μ—λ„ˆμ§€ 보쑴, 즉 보닀 적은 μ—λ„ˆμ§€λ₯Ό μ‚¬μš©ν•΄μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:05
And if we do that, that also means
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μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ†ŒλΉ„λ₯Ό μ€„μ΄λŠ” 데 μ„±κ³΅ν•œλ‹€λ©΄,
10:07
that as we continue to roll out the supply-side technology,
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μ—λ„ˆμ§€ 곡급 μΈ‘λ©΄μ—μ„œ 기술 κ°œμ„ μ„ ν•˜λŠ” λ™μ•ˆ
10:11
we will have less of a job to do if we've actually managed
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ν•„μš”ν•œ μ—λ„ˆμ§€ κ³΅κΈ‰λŸ‰μ΄ 적어지기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ—,
10:14
to reduce our energy consumption,
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10:16
because we will then need less infrastructure on the supply side.
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기술 κ°œμ„ μ„ μœ„ν•œ μˆ˜κ³ λ„ 쀄어듀 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:21
Another issue that we really need to grapple with
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볡지와 ν˜•ν‰μ— κ΄€ν•œ λ¬Έμ œλ„ κ°„κ³Όν•΄μ„œλŠ” μ•ˆ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:24
is the issue of well-being and equity.
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10:27
There are many parts of the world where the standard of living needs to rise.
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μƒν™œμˆ˜μ€€μ˜ κ°œμ„ μ΄ ν•„μš”ν•œ 지역이 λ§ŽμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:33
Bbut with energy systems currently reliant on fossil fuel,
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ ν˜„μž¬λŠ” μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ΄ ν™”μ„μ—°λ£Œμ— μ˜μ‘΄ν•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ—
10:38
as those economies grow so will emissions.
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κ²½μ œκ°€ μ„±μž₯ν•˜λ©΄ λ°°μΆœλŸ‰λ„ μ¦κ°€ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:41
And now, if we're all constrained by the same amount of carbon budget,
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전세계가 같이 μ‚¬μš©ν•  μΌμ •λŸ‰μ˜ νƒ„μ†Œ μ˜ˆμ‚°μ΄ 주어지기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ—,
10:44
that means that if some parts of the world's emissions are needing to rise,
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μ–΄λ–€ 지역이 λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ„ λŠ˜λ¦°λ‹€λ©΄
10:48
then other parts of the world's emissions need to reduce.
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λ‹€λ₯Έ μ§€μ—­μ—μ„œλŠ” λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ„ 쀄여야 ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:53
So that poses very significant challenges for wealthy nations.
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μ΄λŠ” 뢀ꡭ에 λ§Žμ€ 문제λ₯Ό μ•ˆκΉλ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:57
Because according to our research,
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ 연ꡬ에 μ˜ν•˜λ©΄, 인ꡬ λŒ€ 배좜 λΉ„μœ¨μ΄ 높은
11:00
if you're in a country where per capita emissions are really high --
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11:03
so North America, Europe, Australia --
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뢁아메리카, 유럽, μ˜€μŠ€νŠΈλ ˆμΌλ¦¬μ•„μ™€ 같은 곳은
11:07
emissions reductions of the order of 10 percent per year,
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섭씨2도 μƒμŠΉ μ‹œλ‚˜λ¦¬μ˜€λ₯Ό ν”Όν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄
11:11
and starting immediately, will be required for a good chance
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λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ„ μ¦‰μ‹œ 10% 쀄여야 ν•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:15
of avoiding the two-degree target.
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11:18
Let me just put that into context.
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더 μ΄ν•΄ν•˜κΈ° μ‰½κ²Œ μ•Œμ•„λ³΄κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:19
The economist Nicholas Stern
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κ²½μ œν•™μžμΈ λ‹ˆμ½œλΌμŠ€ μŠ€ν„΄μ— μ˜ν•˜λ©΄
11:21
said that emission reductions of more than one percent per year
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μ—°λ‹Ή μ΄μ‚°ν™”νƒ„μ†Œ λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ΄ 1% 이상 κ°μ†Œν•œ κ²½μš°λŠ”
11:25
had only ever been associated with economic recession or upheaval.
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κ²½μ œν›„ν‡΄λ‚˜ 경제적 λ™μš”κ°€ 있던 λ•Œλ°–μ— μ—†λ‹€κ³  ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:31
So this poses huge challenges for the issue of economic growth,
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μ‚¬νšŒκ°€ κ³ νƒ„μ†Œ κΈ°λ°˜μ‹œμ„€μ„ 가지고 μžˆλ‹€λ©΄
경제 μ„±μž₯에 따라 λ°°μΆœλŸ‰λ„ μ¦κ°€ν•˜λ―€λ‘œ,
11:37
because if we have our high carbon infrastructure in place,
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경제 μ„±μž₯에 큰 지μž₯이 생길 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:41
it means that if our economies grow,
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11:44
then so do our emissions.
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11:46
So I'd just like to take a quote from a paper
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저와 μΌ€λΉˆ μ•€λ”μŠ¨μ΄ 2011년에 λ°œν‘œν•œ 논문을 μΈμš©ν•˜κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:48
by myself and Kevin Anderson back in 2011
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11:52
where we said that to avoid the two-degree framing of dangerous climate change,
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"2도 μ˜¨λ„μƒμŠΉμ„ 막기 μœ„ν•΄μ„œλŠ”
뢀ꡭ듀은 κΈ΄μΆ•μž¬μ •μ„ 톡해 λ‹ΉλΆ„κ°„ 경제 μ„±μž₯을 λ©ˆμΆ°μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€."
11:58
economic growth needs to be exchanged at least temporarily
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12:02
for a period of planned austerity in wealthy nations.
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12:08
This is a really difficult message to take,
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제 λ©”μ‹œμ§€λŠ” μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ΄λ•ŒκΉŒμ§€ ν•΄μ™”λ˜ 것듀을 λ‹€λ₯΄κ²Œ ν•΄μ•Ό ν•œλ‹€λŠ” 것이기에
12:12
because what it suggests is that we really need to do things differently.
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μ„ λœ» 받아듀이기 νž˜λ“€ 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:17
This is not about just incremental change.
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이것은 점진적인 λ³€ν™”λ§Œ λ§ν•˜λŠ” 것이 μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:21
This is about doing things differently, about whole system change,
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이것은 ν‰λ²”ν•˜κ²Œ ν•΄μ˜¨ 일을 λ‹€λ₯΄κ²Œ ν•˜λŠ” 것,
전체 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ„ λ°”κΎΈλŠ” 것,
12:26
and sometimes it's about doing less things.
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가끔은 무언가λ₯Ό λœν•˜λŠ” 것을 λ§ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:30
And this applies to all of us,
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그리고 이 λ³€ν™”λŠ” 세계에 μžˆλŠ” λͺ¨λ‘μ—κ²Œ μ μš©λ˜μ–΄μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:32
whatever sphere of influence we have.
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12:35
So it could be from writing to our local politician
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λ³€ν™”λŠ” μ§€μ—­μ—μ„œ μ •μΉ˜μΈμ—κ²Œ κ±΄μ˜ν•˜λŠ” 것,
12:38
to talking to our boss at work or being the boss at work,
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직μž₯μ—μ„œ μƒμ‚¬μ—κ²Œ λ˜λŠ” μƒμ‚¬λ‘œμ„œ λ§ν•˜λŠ” 것,
12:41
or talking with our friends and family, or, quite simply, changing our lifestyles.
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μΌμƒμ—μ„œ μΉœκ΅¬λ‚˜ κ°€μ‘±κ³Ό λ§ν•˜λŠ” 것,
λ˜λŠ” 우리의 μƒν™œ 방식을 λ°”κΎΈλŠ” 것일 μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:47
Because we really need to make significant change.
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μ€‘μš”ν•œ 것은 정말 λˆˆμ— 보일 μ •λ„μ˜ λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό κ²ͺμ–΄μ•Ό ν•œλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:50
At the moment, we're choosing a four-degree scenario.
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ν˜„μž¬λ‘œμ„œ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 4도 μƒμŠΉ μ‹œλ‚˜λ¦¬μ˜€λ₯Ό 따라가고 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:55
If we really want to avoid the two-degree scenario,
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2도 μƒμŠΉ μ‹œλ‚˜λ¦¬μ˜€λ₯Ό ν”Όν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œλŠ”
12:58
there really is no time like the present to act.
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μ§€κΈˆ λ‹Ήμž₯에라도 행동을 μ‹œμž‘ν•΄μ•Ό ν•  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:02
Thank you.
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κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:03
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
13:12
Bruno Giussani: Alice, basically what you're saying,
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μ•¨λ¦¬μŠ€, 당신이 λ§ν•˜κ³ μž ν•˜λŠ” 것은
13:15
the talk is, unless wealthy nations start cutting 10 percent per year
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뢀ꡭ듀이 2020λ…„μ΄λ‚˜ 2025년이 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
13:18
the emissions now, this year, not in 2020 or '25,
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μ§€κΈˆ λ‹Ήμž₯ λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ„ 10% 쀄이지 μ•ŠμœΌλ©΄
13:23
we are going to go straight to the four-plus-degree scenario.
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4도 이상 μƒμŠΉ μ‹œλ‚˜λ¦¬μ˜€λ‘œ μ§ν–‰ν•˜κ²Œ λœλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:28
I am wondering what's your take on the cut by 70 percent for 2070.
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2070λ…„κΉŒμ§€ λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ„ 70% κ°μΆ•ν•˜λŠ” 것에 λŒ€ν•œ μ˜κ²¬μ„ λ“£κ³  μ‹ΆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:31
Alice Bows-Larkin: Yeah, it's just nowhere near enough to avoid two degrees.
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λ„€. 그건 2도 μƒμŠΉ μ‹œλ‚˜λ¦¬μ˜€λ₯Ό ν”Όν•˜λŠ” 것에 κ·Όμ ‘ν•˜μ§€λ„ λͺ»ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:35
One of the things that often --
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μˆ˜λ§Žμ€ λͺ¨λΈ 연ꡬ에 μ˜ν•΄
13:37
when there are these modeling studies that look at what we need to do,
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 갈 λ°©ν–₯이 λͺ…ν™•ν•΄μ‘ŒμŒμ—λ„ λΆˆκ΅¬ν•˜κ³ ,
13:40
is they tend to hugely overestimate how quickly other countries in the world
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λ§Žμ€ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ 전세계가
λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ„ λ°”λ‘œ 쀄일 수 μžˆλ‹€κ³  λ‚™κ΄€ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:45
can start to reduce emissions.
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13:46
So they make kind of heroic assumptions about that.
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μ΄λŠ” μ§€λ‚˜μΉœ μ˜μ›…μ£Όμ˜μ  μ‹œκ°μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:50
The more we do that, because it's the cumulative emissions,
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연ꡬλ₯Ό ν• μˆ˜λ‘ λΆ„λͺ…ν•œ 것은, λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ€ μΆ•μ λ˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ—
13:52
the short-term stuff that really matters.
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단기적인 λŒ€μ±…μ΄ μ€‘μš”ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:54
So it does make a huge difference.
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κ·Έλž˜μ•Ό 정말 λ³€ν™”κ°€ μƒκΉλ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:56
If a big country like China, for example,
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예λ₯Ό λ“€μ–΄ 쀑ꡭ 같은 λŒ€ν˜•κ΅­κ°€κ°€
μ„±μž₯을 λ©ˆμΆ”λŠ” μ‹œκΈ°λ₯Ό λͺ‡ λ…„λ§Œ λŠ¦μΆ”μ–΄λ„
13:58
continues to grow even for just a few extra years,
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14:00
that will make a big difference to when we need to decarbonize.
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νƒˆνƒ„μ†Œν™”λ₯Ό μ‹œμž‘ν•΄μ•Ό ν•˜λŠ” μ‹œμ μ΄ 크게 λ³€ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:03
So I don't think we can even say when it will be,
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ €λŠ” λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό μœ„ν•œ 기점은 μ•Œ 수 μ—†λ‹€κ³  보고
14:06
because it all depends on what we have to do in the short term.
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λ‹¨κΈ°λ‘œ μ–΄λ– ν•œ 행동을 μ·¨ν•  지가 μ€‘μš”ν•˜λ‹€κ³  λ΄…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:09
But I think we've just got huge scope, and we don't pull those levers
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κ·ΈλŸΌμ—λ„ μš°λ¦¬λ“€μ€ μ•ˆνƒ€κΉκ²Œλ„ κ±°μ‹œμ  μ‹œκ°μœΌλ‘œ
14:12
that allow us to reduce the energy demand, which is a shame.
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μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μˆ˜μš”λŸ‰μ„ 쀄이기 μœ„ν•œ μˆ˜μˆœμ„ λ°Ÿμ§€ μ•Šκ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:15
BG: Alice, thank you for coming to TED and sharing this data.
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μ•¨λ¦¬μŠ€, TED에 λ‚˜μ™€μ„œ 데이터λ₯Ό κ³΅μœ ν•΄μ€˜μ„œ κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:18
ABL: Thank you.
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
14:20
(Applause)
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이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

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