请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Bo Wang
校对人员: Xu Jiang
00:12
I want to argue to you that in fact, politics and religion,
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我想要论证的观点是,事实上,政治和宗教,
00:17
which are the two primary factors --
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是两种主要因素--
00:19
not the sole, but overwhelmingly, the primary factors --
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并不是惟一的,但是绝大多数时候,
00:22
which are driving towards a war which looks extremely likely --
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是引发一场看起来势不可挡的
00:25
bordering on the inevitable at this point,
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战争的主要因素。
00:27
whether one is in favor of that or not --
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不管你是否喜欢--
00:29
that politics and religion are, in fact, themselves
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政治和宗教,本质上
00:32
better conceptualized as kinds of technology,
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都可以被理解为是一种技术,
00:36
and subject to kinds of questions that we regularly consider
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我们可以以概念设计的方式
00:41
in the space of conceptual design.
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去看待他们。
00:44
Here's what I mean. Politics and --
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我是说,政治-
00:47
let's focus on the political system in particular question here,
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我们通过一个具体问题来着重讨论政治制度,
00:50
which is the system of democracy.
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也就是民主政治。
00:52
Democracy, as a type of politics, is a technology
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民主,作为政治的一种,是一项
00:56
for the control and deployment of power.
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为了控制和使用权利的技术。
00:58
You can deploy power in a wide range of ways.
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你可以通过多种方式来使用权利。
01:01
The famous ones -- despotism is a good one;
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著名的,比如专制就是一个很好的例子。
01:03
anarchy is a way to not deploy the power in any organized way,
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无政府是一种非组织化的使用权利,
01:06
to do it in a radically diffused fashion;
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漫无章法的方式。
01:08
and democracy is a set of technologies,
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民主是这样一组科技,
01:10
which have the effect of, in principle,
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在原则上,把权利的来源分散到
01:13
diffusing the power source to a large number of people
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一大批人中
01:16
and then re-concentrating it in a smaller group of people who govern,
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然后重新集中到处于掌控地位的那一小部分人中,
01:19
and who themselves are, in principle, authorized to govern
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这些人本身,原则上,被授予掌控地位的权利
01:23
by virtue of what the broader public has done.
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是依靠公众的选择。
01:26
Now, consider religion -- in this case Islam,
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现在我们来看宗教--比如说伊斯兰教,
01:29
which is the religion that, in some direct sense,
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直接说,是促成了我们将要面临的境遇
01:32
can be said to be precipitating what we're about to enter.
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的宗教。
01:36
Let me say parenthetically why I think that's the case,
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顺便解释一句,
01:38
because I think it's a potentially controversial statement.
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因为我认为这可能是个富于争议的说法。
01:41
I would put it in the following equation: no 9/11, no war.
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我想用下面这个等式:没有9/11,就没有战争。
01:45
At the beginning of the Bush administration,
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在布什政府的初期,
01:49
when President Bush, now President Bush, was running for president,
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当布什总统,现任的布什总统,正在竞选总统的时候,
01:52
he made it very clear that he was not interested in intervening broadly in the world.
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十分明确地表明过他没有兴趣过多地干涉世界上的事情。
01:55
In fact, the trend was for disengagement with the rest of the world.
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实际上,当时的趋势是远离世界上的其他国家。
01:58
That's why we heard about the backing away from the Kyoto protocol, for example.
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这也可以说明比如,为什么美国会退出京都议定。
02:02
After 9/11, the tables were turned.
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9/11以后,形势变化了。
02:05
And the president decided, with his advisors,
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总统和他的幕僚们决定,
02:08
to undertake some kind of an active intervention in the world around us.
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在世界范围内要采取主动。
02:12
That began with Afghanistan,
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先是阿富汗,
02:14
and when Afghanistan went extremely smoothly and quickly,
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当在阿富汗的计划进行的十分顺利和迅速的时候,
02:17
a decision was made through the technology of democracy --
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在民主机制下,
02:21
again, notice, not a perfect technology --
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请注意,虽然并不完美--
02:24
but through the technology of democracy
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但是通过民主这种技术
02:26
that this administration was going to push in the direction of another war --
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这届政府决定推行一场新的战争。
02:29
this time, a war in Iraq.
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这次是在伊拉克。
02:31
Now, the reason I begin by saying "no 9/11, no war"
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那么,我之所以说没有911,就没有战争
02:36
is that we have to acknowledge that Islam,
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是因为我们必须要承认伊斯兰教,
02:40
as interpreted by a very, very small, extremely radical group of people,
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在一群很少数,很极端的人的理解下,
02:46
was a precipitating cause of the 9/11 attacks --
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是9/11袭击的决定性原因--
02:50
the precipitating cause of the 9/11 attacks --
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9/11袭击的决定性原因--
02:52
and as a consequence, at one degree of remove,
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结果是,抛开其他的因素,
02:55
the precipitating cause of the coming war that we're about to be engaged in.
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我们将要参与的这场战争的决定性原因,
02:59
And I would add that bin Laden and his followers
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而且我还要说下本拉登和他的追随者们
03:02
are consciously devoted to the goal of creating a conflict between democracy,
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刻意制造一种冲突,在民主和
03:07
or at least capitalist democracy, on the one hand,
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或者至少一方面在资本主义民主中,
03:10
and the world of Islam as they see and define it.
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他们眼中的伊斯兰教世界的冲突。
03:14
Now, how is Islam a technology in this conceptual apparatus?
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那么,在这种概念下,伊斯兰教如何成为一种技术呢?
03:17
Well, it's a technology for, first, salvation in its most basic sense.
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首先,救赎是它的最基本概念。
03:21
It's meant to be a mechanism for construing the universe
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也就是构建宇宙的一种机制
03:24
in a way that will bring about the salvation of the individual believer,
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从而让信徒获得救赎,
03:28
but it's also meant by the Islamists --
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但是也是通过伊斯兰教徒--
03:30
and I use that term to mean people who believe that Islam --
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我用这个词来形容那些信奉伊斯兰教的人们--
03:34
they follow the slogan, Islam is the answer to a wide range of questions,
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他们追随教义,把伊斯兰教作为一系列广泛问题的答案,
03:37
whether they're social, or political, or personal, or spiritual.
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不管是社会的,或者政治的,还是个人的或者是精神层面上的。
03:40
Within the sphere of people who have that view,
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持有这种观点的人,
03:42
and it's a large number of people in the Muslim world
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在穆斯林世界中非常多
03:44
who disagree with bin Laden in his application,
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他们虽然不同意本拉登的做法,
03:46
but agree that Islam is the answer.
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却同意伊斯兰教是解决问题的答案。
03:48
Islam represents a way of engaging the world
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伊斯兰教提供了一种处世之道
03:51
through which one can achieve certain desirable goals.
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使得他们可以完成某种预想的目标。
03:54
And the goals from the perspective of Muslims are, in principle,
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原则上,从穆斯林们的角度出发,他们的目标是,
03:58
peace, justice and equality,
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和平,正义和平等,
04:01
but on terms that correspond to traditional Muslim teachings.
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但却是按照传统穆斯林所教导的方式。
04:05
Now, I don't want to leave a misimpression
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请不要误会,
04:08
by identifying either of these propositions --
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我指出这两个提议-
04:11
rather, either of these phenomena, democracy or Islam -- as technologies.
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或者说,这两个现象,民主或者伊斯兰教,都是技术。
04:15
I don't want to suggest that they are a single thing that you can point to.
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我并不想说它们是你认为的同样的事物。
04:18
And I think a good way to prove this
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我认为证明这个的一个好方法是
04:20
is simply to demonstrate to you what my thought process was
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简单地向你们展示我的思考过程
04:23
when deciding what to put on the wall behind me when I spoke.
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在我讲话的过程中,决定我身后的墙上应该展示些什么。
04:26
And I ran immediately into a conceptual problem:
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于是我立即遇到了这样一个概念性问题--
04:28
you can't show a picture of democracy.
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你展示不出一幅民主的画面。
04:30
You can show a slogan, or a symbol, or a sign that stands for democracy.
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你可以展示象征民主的口号,或者符号,或者印记。
04:35
You can show the Capitol --
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你可以展示国会大厦--
04:36
I had the same problem when I was designing the cover
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我在设计我的新书的封面的时候也遇到了
04:38
of my forthcoming book, in fact --
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相同的问题,实际上--
04:40
what do you put on the cover to show democracy?
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你会在封面上放置什么来代表民主呢?
04:42
And the same problem with respect to Islam.
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伊斯兰教也遇到同样的问题。
04:44
You can show a mosque, or you can show worshippers,
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你可以展示清真寺,或者朝圣者,
04:46
but there's not a straightforward way of depicting Islam.
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但是却没有直观的方式去描述伊斯兰教。
04:48
That's because these are the kinds of concepts
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这是因为它们属于那类
04:50
that are not susceptible to easy representation.
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不容易展示和表现的概念。
04:53
Now, it follows from that, that they're deeply contestable.
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因此,它们是非常具有争议性的。
04:56
It follows from that that all of the people in the world
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因此,世界上所有声称自己是穆斯林的人
04:59
who say that they are Muslims can, in principle,
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原则上都
05:01
subscribe to a wide range of different interpretations
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对伊斯兰教持有不同的观点。
05:04
of what Islam really is, and the same is true of democracy.
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对于民主也是这样。
05:09
In other words, unlike the word hope,
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换句话说,和“希望”这个词不同,
05:12
which one could look up in a dictionary and derive origins for,
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我们可以查阅字典追溯根源,
05:16
and, perhaps, reach some kind of a consensual use analysis,
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而且,或者使用某种一致性使用分析,
05:19
these are essentially contested concepts.
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这两样概念本质上是争议性的。
05:21
They're ideas about which people disagree in the deepest possible sense.
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它们是人们在最深层次上的分歧。
05:27
And as a consequence of this disagreement,
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这种分歧的结果是
05:30
it's very, very difficult for anyone to say,
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任何人都说不出,
05:32
"I have the right version of Islam."
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“我知道伊斯兰教的正确含义。”
05:34
You know, post-9/11, we were treated to the amazing phenomenon
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你知道,9/11以后,我们面对的是这样奇怪的现象,
05:37
of George W. Bush saying, "Islam means peace."
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乔治W布什说,“伊斯兰教意味着和平。”
05:40
Well, so says George W. Bush.
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好吧,那是布什的看法。
05:43
Other people would say it means something else.
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其他人可能会说伊斯兰教是其他的东西。
05:45
Some people would say that Islam means submission.
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有些人可能说伊斯兰教意味着服从。
05:47
Other people would say it means an acknowledgement
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有些人可能说伊斯兰教意味着感谢
05:49
or recognition of God's sovereignty.
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或者神的主权的认知。
05:51
There are a wide range of different things that Islam can mean.
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对于伊斯兰教的理解可以是五花八门。
05:54
And ostensibly, the same is true of democracy.
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表面上看,民主也是一样。
05:56
Some people say that democracy consists basically in elections.
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有些人认为民主就是各种选举。
05:59
Other people say no, that's not enough,
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其他人说不对,这还不够,
06:01
there have to be basic liberal rights: free speech, free press, equality of citizens.
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必须有最基本的自由权利:演讲自由,舆论自由,公民平等。
06:05
These are contested points, and it's impossible to answer them by saying,
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这些就是争议之处,而且我们也不可能这样回答,
06:08
"Ah ha, I looked in the right place, and I found out what these concepts mean."
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“啊哈,我已经查过了,我知道了这些概念究竟是什么意思。”
06:12
Now, if Islam and democracy are at present
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那么,如果伊斯兰教和民主都在现场
06:16
in a moment of great confrontation,
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在终极对峙的时刻,
06:18
what does that mean?
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那意味着什么?
06:20
Well, you could fit it into a range of different interpretative frameworks.
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你可以将其放入一系列不同的框架中去理解。
06:24
You could begin with the one that we began with a couple of days ago,
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你可以从我们前几天开始讨论的问题开始,
06:27
which was fear.
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那就是恐惧。
06:29
Fear is not an implausible reaction with a war just around the corner
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如果战争在一触即发之际,恐惧并非一种不可思议的反应
06:34
and with a very, very high likelihood that many, many people are going to die
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很多人可能都会送命。
06:37
as a consequence of this confrontation --
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作为这次对决的结果--
06:39
a confrontation which many, many people
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这种许多穆斯林世界中
06:41
in the Muslim world do not want,
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的人不希望看到的对决,
06:43
many, many people in the American democracy do not want,
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许多怀有美国式民主情节的人不希望看到的,
06:46
many people elsewhere in the world do not want,
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许多其他世界各地的人不希望看到的对决,
06:48
but which nonetheless is favored by a large enough number of people --
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但是,这也是有相当多的人所希望看到的--
06:51
at least in the relevant space, which is the United States --
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至少在利害相关的地区,也就是美国--
06:55
to actually go forward. So fear is not a crazy response at all.
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认为应该进行的。因此恐惧根本不是一种疯狂的反应。
06:58
And I think that that's, in fact, probably the first appropriate response.
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我认为,实际上,可能是第一个合理的反应。
07:02
What I want to suggest to you, though, in the next couple of minutes
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然而,在接下来的几分钟内,我想向你提出的是
07:05
is that there's also a hopeful response to this.
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其实是有一种反应可以使人满怀希望的。
07:09
And the hopeful response derives from recognizing
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这种反应来源于认识到
07:12
that Islam and democracy are technologies.
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伊斯兰教和民主都是一种技术。
07:14
And by virtue of being technologies, they're manipulable.
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而且因为它们是种技术,它们是可操作的。
07:17
And they're manipulable in ways
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而起它们可以以一种能产生
07:19
that can produce some extremely positive outcomes.
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极端正面影响的方式被操作。
07:21
What do I have in mind?
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我想到了什么呢?
07:23
Well, all over the Muslim world there are people
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在穆斯林世界有这样一批人
07:26
who take Islam deeply seriously, people who care about Islam,
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他们十分严肃的看待伊斯兰教,关心伊斯兰教,
07:30
for whom it's a source either of faith, or of civilization, or of deep values,
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对于它们来说伊斯兰教是一种信仰,文化或者深刻价值观的本源,
07:34
or just a source of powerful personal identity,
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或者仅仅是一种强有力的,个人身份的来源,
07:36
who think and are saying loudly that Islam and democracy
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他们认为并且大声宣称伊斯兰教和民主
07:40
are in fact not in conflict, but are in fact deeply compatible.
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事实上是不存在冲突的,而且在深层次兼容。
07:44
And these Muslims -- and it's the vast majority of Muslims --
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而且这些穆斯林--他们占据了绝大多数的比例,
07:47
disagree profoundly with bin Laden's approach, profoundly.
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完全不同意本拉登的方式,完全不同意。
07:52
And they furthermore think overwhelmingly --
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而且他们十分强烈的认为--
07:55
again one can't speak of every person, but overwhelmingly,
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再一次地一个人不可能代表每个人,但是十分强烈的,
07:57
and one can find this by reading any of the sources
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我们可以发现这一点,通过搜寻他们出版的任何
07:59
that they have produced, and they're all over the Internet
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资源,这些资源遍布因特网
08:02
and in all sorts of languages -- one can see that they're saying
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用各种不同的语言写成--宣扬他们的想法
08:05
that their concern in their own countries is primarily to free up themselves
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他们所关心的是在他们自己的国家如何解放他们自己
08:11
to have choice in the spheres of personal life,
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在个人生活上,
08:15
in the sphere of economics, in the sphere of politics,
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在经济领域,在政治领域,如何选择,
08:18
and, yes, in the sphere of religion,
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而且,是的,甚至在宗教领域
08:20
which is itself closely regulated in most of the Muslim world.
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这一点在穆斯林世界被十分严格的管理着。
08:23
And many of these Muslims further say
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而且这其中有许多穆斯林教徒进一步表达了
08:25
that their disagreement with the United States
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他们反对美国(的做法)
08:28
is that it, in the past and still in the present,
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也就是过去和目前仍存在的,
08:31
has sided with autocratic rulers in the Muslim world
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支持穆斯林世界独裁者的统治
08:35
in order to promote America's short-term interests.
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以推进美国的短期利益。
08:41
Now, during the Cold War, that may have been
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那么,在冷战期间,也许可以说是美国
08:43
a defensible position for the United States to take.
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采取一种防御的态度。
08:45
That's an academic question.
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那是属于专业化的问题。
08:47
It may be that there was a great war to be fought between West and East,
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也许是因为东西方之间可能会发生一场大的冲突,
08:50
and it was necessary on the axis of democracy against communism.
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用民主的本质来对抗共产主义是必须的。
08:54
And it was necessary in some way for these to contradict each other,
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在某种程度上出现相互矛盾的情况也是不可避免的,
08:57
and as a consequence you have to make friends wherever you can get them.
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结果就是你要尽可能的广交朋友。
09:00
But now that the Cold War is over,
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但是现在冷战已经结束,
09:02
there's nearly universal consensus in the Muslim world --
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穆斯林世界几乎达成了一致--
09:06
and pretty close to the same here in the United States,
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美国国内也差不多同样达成一致,
09:08
if you talk to people and ask them --
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如果你问他们,
09:10
that in principle, there's no reason that democracy and Islam cannot co-exist.
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本质上,民主和伊斯兰教没有理由不能够共存。
09:14
And we see this among activist, practical Muslims,
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我们可以见到活跃的,实事求是的穆斯林教徒,
09:17
like the Muslims who are presently the elected,
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比如刚刚当选的土耳其穆斯林政府,
09:19
parliamentary, democratic government of Turkey,
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民主的议会,民主的政府,
09:21
who are behaving pragmatically, not ideologically,
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他们奉行实用主义而非理想主义,
09:24
who are promoting their own religious values,
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推行自己的宗教观念,
09:26
who are elected by their own people
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因为他们被认为是诚实和真挚的
09:28
because they were perceived as honest and sincere
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因为他们的宗教观念,
09:30
because of their religious values,
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被自己的人民选举出来,
09:32
but who do not think that Islam and a democratic system of governance
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但是他们并不认为伊斯兰教和民主制度
09:36
are fundamentally incompatible.
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有着根本的矛盾。
09:38
Now, you may say, but surely, what we've seen on television about Saudi Islam
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那么,你可能会说,但是毫无疑问的是,我们在电视上看到沙特的伊斯兰教
09:43
convinces us that it can't possibly be compatible
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坚决认为他们的价值观同
09:45
with what we consider the core of democracy --
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我们认同的民主核心价值是不可共存的,
09:47
namely, free political choice, basic liberty and basic equality.
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也就是,自由政治权利,基本自由和基本平等。
09:51
But I'm here to tell you that technologies
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但是我今天想向大家说明,
09:55
are more malleable than that.
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技术相当具有可塑性。
09:57
I'm here to tell you that many, many Muslims believe --
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我想告诉你,许多许多的穆斯林们认为--
10:00
the vast majority, in fact -- in fact I think I would go so far as to say
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实际上是绝大多数--事实上我可以说在沙特阿拉伯的
10:02
that many Muslims in Saudi Arabia believe that the core values of Islam,
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许多穆斯林认为伊斯兰教的核心价值观,
10:06
namely acknowledgement of God's sovereignty
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也就是对神的主权的承认
10:08
and basic human equality before God,
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神面前人人平等的基本权利,
10:11
are themselves compatible with liberty, equality and free political choice.
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这和自由,平等以及自由政治选举本身上是同出一辙的。
10:15
And there are Muslims, many Muslims out there, who are saying precisely this.
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许多的穆斯林,许多穆斯林确确实实是这样说的。
10:20
And they're making this argument wherever they're permitted to make it.
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只要情况允许,他们总会竭尽所能的宣传这种观点。
10:23
But their governments, needless to say, are relatively threatened by this.
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但是他们的政府,不用说,被这种观点所威胁。
10:25
And for the most part try to stop them from making this argument.
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而且尽可能的去组织这种宣传活动的发生。
10:28
So, for example, a group of young activists in Egypt
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比如,埃及的一群青年活跃分子,
10:32
try to form a party known as the Center Party,
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打算组建一个叫做“Center Party”(中心党)的政党,
10:34
which advocated the compatibility of Islam and democracy.
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其宗旨是推进伊斯兰教与民主政治的和谐。
10:36
They weren't even allowed to form a party.
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但是他们甚至不能得到许可。
10:38
They were actually blocked from even forming a party
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他们甚至连组建一个政党都不可以
10:40
under the political system there. Why?
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在当地的政治制度下。为什么?
10:42
Because they would have done extraordinarily well.
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因为他们一定会取得很大的成功。
10:44
In the most recent elections in the Muslim world --
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在穆斯林世界的最近几次选举中--
10:46
which are those in Pakistan, those in Morocco
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在巴基斯坦,在摩洛哥,在土耳其
10:49
and those in Turkey -- in each case,
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每一个国家,
10:51
people who present themselves to the electorate as Islamic democrats
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那些宣称自己为伊斯兰的民主主义者的人却远远超出其他竞选者
10:54
were far and away the most successful vote-getters
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在他们允许自由竞选的地方
10:57
every place they were allowed to run freely.
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赢得大量的选票。
11:01
So in Morocco, for example, they finished third in the political race
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比如在摩洛哥,他们在政治竞选中名列第三
11:05
but they were only allowed to contest half the seats.
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但他们只被允许竞争半数席位。
11:07
So had they contested a larger number of the seats,
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所以如果他们可以竞争更多的席位,
11:09
they would have done even better.
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他们可以做的更好。
11:11
Now what I want to suggest to you is that the reason for hope in this case
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那么我要向大家建议的是这种例子给我们一种希望
11:14
is that we are on the edge of a real transformation in the Muslim world.
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那就是我们将要面临穆斯林世界的一个真实的大转变。
11:19
And that's a transformation in which many sincerely believing Muslims --
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在这场变革中,那些诚挚的穆斯林们--
11:23
who care very, very deeply about their traditions,
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那些深深关心自己传统的人们,
11:26
who do not want to compromise those values --
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那些不想在传统价值上妥协的人们--
11:29
believe, through the malleability of the technology of democracy
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他们相信,通过民主,这个技术的可塑性,
11:33
and the malleability and synthetic capability of the technology of Islam,
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和伊斯兰教,这个技术的包容性以及可塑性,
11:38
that these two ideas can work together.
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这两种观念能够融合在一起。
11:41
Now what would that look like?
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那将会是怎样的情景?
11:43
What does it mean to say that there's an Islamic democracy?
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“伊斯兰民主”这个词汇意味着什么?
11:46
Well, one thing is, it's not going to look identical
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有一点是,它不会和我们所熟知的
11:48
to democracy as we know it in the United States.
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美国的民主所相同。
11:51
That may be a good thing, in light of some of the criticisms we've heard today --
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这也许是一个好事,比如,我们现在的民主制度,
11:54
for example, in the regulatory context -- of what democracy produces.
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我们已经听到许多批评的声音。
11:58
It will also not look exactly the way either the people in this room,
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它也不会跟在座的各位、
12:02
or Muslims out in the rest of the world --
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或者外面世界的穆斯林--
12:04
I don't mean to imply there aren't Muslims here, there probably are --
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我的意思并不是在座的没有穆斯林,其实很可能是有的--
12:07
conceptualize Islam.
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所想象的穆斯林不一样
12:09
It will be transformative of Islam as well.
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它也会改变伊斯兰教。
12:12
And as a result of this convergence,
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这种融合的结果是,
12:15
this synthetic attempt to make sense of these two ideas together,
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这种试图融合这两种观念的尝试,
12:19
there's a real possibility that, instead of a clash
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结果很可能不会是
12:22
of Islamic civilization -- if there is such a thing --
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伊斯兰教文明--如果有这么一种概念--
12:25
and democratic civilization -- if there is such a thing --
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和民主文明--如果也有这么一个概念--
12:27
we'll in fact have close compatibility.
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的冲突,事实上这两者也许会紧密协调。
12:30
Now, I began with the war because it's the elephant in the room,
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那么,我从战争说起是因为这是焦点话题,
12:34
and you can't pretend that there isn't about to be a war
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你不可能假装战争离我们很远,
12:36
if you're talking about these issues.
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当你正谈论这些话题的时候。
12:38
The war has tremendous risks for the model that I'm describing
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战争对于我正在描述的这种模型有极大的威胁
12:41
because it's very possible that as a consequence of a war,
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因为很有可能的事情是,作为战争的结果,
12:44
many Muslims will conclude that the United States
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许多穆斯林会得出结论:美国
12:47
is not the kind of place that they want to emulate
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不是他们想要在政治上
12:49
with respect to its forms of political government.
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效仿的对象。
12:52
On the other hand, there's a further possibility that many Americans,
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另一方面,一种大的可能性是许多的美国人,
12:55
swept up in the fever of a war, will say, and feel, and think
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对于战争抱有很强的赞同,会谈论,感受,和认为
13:00
that Islam is the enemy somehow --
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伊斯兰教在某种程度上是敌人--
13:02
that Islam ought to be construed as the enemy.
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伊斯兰教应该被视作敌人。
13:05
And even though, for political tactical reasons,
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而且即使如此,由于政治策略的原因,
13:07
the president has been very, very good about saying that Islam is not the enemy,
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总统已经对如何声明伊斯兰教不是敌人驾轻就熟,
13:11
nonetheless, there's a natural impulse when one enters war
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尽管如此,当被牵涉进战争时,一方很自然地会有
13:14
to think of the other side as an enemy.
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将对方视作敌人的冲动。
13:16
And one furthermore has the impulse to generalize, as much as possible,
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并有冲动,去尽可能多的归纳和定义
13:19
in defining who that enemy is.
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敌人到底是谁。
13:21
So the risks are very great.
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所以,危机是很大的。
13:23
On the other hand, the capacities for positive results in the aftermath of a war
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另一方面,战后产生积极影响的可能
13:30
are also not to be underestimated,
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也不应当被低估,
13:32
even by, and I would say especially by, people
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尤其对那些
13:35
who are deeply skeptical about whether we should go to war in the first place.
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开始对是否开战争的持有保留观点的人们所低估。
13:38
Those who oppose the war ought to realize that if a war happens,
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那些反对战争的人应该意识到一旦战争发生了,
13:43
it cannot be the right strategy,
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当战争过后,不管是实际的,精神层面的,或者道德层面的
13:45
either pragmatically, or spiritually, or morally, to say after the war,
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都不可以这么说,
13:51
"Well, let's let it all run itself out, and play out however it wants to play out,
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“好吧,让他们自己来做主吧,他们现在可以想怎样就怎样了,
13:54
because we opposed the war in the first place."
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因为我们从一开始就反对战争。”
13:56
That's not the way human circumstances operate.
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这不是人类环境运行的规律。
13:58
You face the circumstances you have in front of you
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你应该正视眼前的局面
14:00
and you go forward.
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然后去处理它。
14:02
Well, what I'm here to say then is,
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那么,我接下来想说的是,
14:04
for people who are skeptical about the war,
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对于那些对战争持保留态度的人,
14:06
it's especially important to recognize that in the aftermath of the war
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有一点极其重要,就是意识到战争以后
14:09
there is a possibility for the government of the United States
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美国政府有可能
14:13
and the Muslim peoples with whom it interacts
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和那些和他们接触的穆斯林人们
14:16
to create real forms of government that are truly democratic
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创造一个真正民主,真正伊斯兰的
14:19
and also truly Islamic.
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政治管理体系。
14:21
And it is crucial -- it is crucial in a practical, activist way --
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而且这是至关重要的,从实事求是,活跃的角度来看,
14:25
for people who care about these issues to make sure
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对于那些真正关心这些事的人,
14:29
that within the technology of democracy, in this system,
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在民主科技下,在这个体系里,
14:32
they exercise their preferences, their choices and their voices
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他们可以表达自己的喜好,自己的选择和声音的人
14:35
to encourage that outcome.
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去鼓励这种结果。
14:37
That's a hopeful message,
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这是给人以希望的信息,
14:39
but it's a message that's hopeful only if you understand it
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但只有你理解了它它才会给人以希望
14:41
as incurring serious obligation for all of us.
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同时我们也会承受艰巨的职责。
14:44
And I think that we are capable of taking on that obligation,
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而且我认为我们有能力承担这种职责,
14:47
but only if we put what we can into it.
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但是前提是我们倾尽所能。
14:50
And if we do, then I don't think that the hope will be unwarranted altogether.
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如果我们这样做的话,我不认为希望会落空。
14:54
Thanks.
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谢谢。
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