Kevin Kelly: How technology evolves

83,730 views ・ 2007-01-12

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Jenny Yang 校对人员: Tony Yet
00:25
I don't know about you, but I haven't quite figured out
0
25000
4000
我不知道你们怎么想,不过我还没搞明白
00:29
exactly what technology means in my life.
1
29000
3000
到底科技对我的生活意味着什么
00:32
I've spent the past year thinking about what it really should be about.
2
32000
7000
我花了过去一年在想,那到底该怎样
00:39
Should I be pro-technology? Should I embrace it full arms?
3
39000
3000
我要亲科技吗?我要全心拥抱它吗?
00:42
Should I be wary? Like you, I'm very tempted by the latest thing.
4
42000
5000
我要谨慎一些吗?和你们一样,最新的事物对我总是很有诱惑
00:47
But at the other hand, a couple of years ago
5
47000
2000
但另一方面,几年前
00:49
I gave up all of my possessions,
6
49000
3000
我放弃我所有的收藏
00:52
sold all my technology -- except for a bicycle --
7
52000
2000
用自身的力量,
00:54
and rode across 3,000 miles on the U.S. back roads under the power of my one body,
8
54000
6000
骑了三千英里的美国小路,只靠自身的力量,
01:00
fuelled mostly by Twinkies and junk food.
9
60000
3000
大部分只吃奶油蛋糕卷和垃圾食物
01:03
(Laughter)
10
63000
1000
(笑声)
01:04
And I've since then tried to keep technology
11
64000
2000
自此,我试着和科技保持距离,
01:06
at arm's length in many ways, so it doesn't master my life.
12
66000
4000
试图不让它来支配我的生活
01:10
At the same time, I run a website on cool tools,
13
70000
4000
而同时,我又管着一个酷品网站,
01:14
where I issue a daily obsession of the latest things in technology.
14
74000
4000
每天发表一篇文章介绍最新的科技产品
01:18
So I'm still perplexed about what the true meaning of technology is
15
78000
6000
所以我还是对到底什么是科技真正的意义感到迷茫
01:24
as it relates to humanity, as it relates to nature,
16
84000
4000
它与人类的关系,与自然的关系,
01:28
as it relates to the spiritual.
17
88000
3000
与精神的关系。
01:31
And I'm not even sure we know what technology is.
18
91000
4000
我甚至不确定我们真的认识科技。
01:35
And one definition of technology is that which is first recorded.
19
95000
6000
有一个最早对科技的定义。
01:41
This is the first example of the modern use of technology that I can find.
20
101000
5000
这是我找到的「科技」一词现代用法的首例
01:46
It was the suggested syllabus for dealing with
21
106000
4000
它出现在一本教学大纲中
01:50
the Applied Arts and Science at Cambridge University in 1829.
22
110000
6000
是剑桥大学1829年出的「应用艺术与科学」,
01:56
Before that, obviously, technology didn't exist. But obviously it did.
23
116000
5000
那之前,显然「科技」一词并不存在。但显然科技是存在的。
02:01
I like one of the definitions that Alan Kay has for technology.
24
121000
4000
我喜欢Alan Kay对科技作的一个定义。
02:05
He says technology is anything that was invented after you were born.
25
125000
4000
他说:科技是你出生后发明的任何东西。
02:09
(Laughter)
26
129000
1000
(笑声)
02:10
So it sums up a lot of what we're talking about.
27
130000
4000
但它涵盖了许多我们讨论的事物。
02:14
Danny Hillis actually has an update on that --
28
134000
2000
Danny Hillis 事实上有个更新版本 -
02:16
he says technology is anything that doesn't quite work yet.
29
136000
4000
他说:科技是还不怎么能用的任何东西。
02:20
(Laughter)
30
140000
1000
(笑声)
02:21
Which also, I think, gets into a little bit of our current idea.
31
141000
5000
我认为,这也和我们现在的想法有关。
02:26
But I was interested in another definition of technology.
32
146000
3000
但我却对科技的另一个定义感兴趣。
02:29
Something, again, that went back to something more fundamental.
33
149000
4000
它再次触及到更基本的一些东西
02:33
Something that was deeper. And as I struggled to understand that,
34
153000
6000
更深层的一些东西。当我尽力去理解它时,
02:39
I came up with a way of framing the question
35
159000
3000
我忽然找到了一种认识这个问题的思路,
02:42
that seemed to work for me in my investigations.
36
162000
2000
它似乎更符合我探索的需求。
02:44
And I'm, this morning, going to talk about this for the first time.
37
164000
3000
今天上午我就首次来谈它。
02:47
So this is a very rough attempt to think out loud.
38
167000
5000
因此这是一种边想边说的粗略尝试。
02:52
The question that I came up with was this question:
39
172000
4000
我得到的问题就是这个问题,
02:56
what does technology want? And by that, I don't mean,
40
176000
3000
科技要的是什么?这里的意思不是指
02:59
does it want chocolate or vanilla? By what it wants, I mean,
41
179000
5000
它要巧克力或香草。我指的是:
03:04
what are its inherent trends and biases?
42
184000
2000
它的固有趋势与偏向是什么?
03:06
What are its tendencies over time? One way to think about this is
43
186000
5000
在整个发展长河中, 它的走向是什么?一种思考的方法是:
03:11
thinking about biological organisms, which we've heard a lot about.
44
191000
4000
想想生物组织体,我们听到很多了。
03:15
And the trick that Richard Dawkins does, which is to say,
45
195000
3000
理查德·道金斯的技巧是:
03:18
to look at them as simply as genes, as vehicles for genes.
46
198000
4000
将它们看成只是基因,是基因载体。
03:22
So he's saying, what do genes want? The selfish gene.
47
202000
3000
因此他说,基因要什么?自私的基因。
03:25
And I'm applying a similar trick to say,
48
205000
3000
因此我用相似的技巧说:
03:28
what if we looked at the universe in our culture
49
208000
3000
如果我们透过科技眼光
03:31
through the eyes of technology? What does technology want?
50
211000
5000
观看我们的文化世界,科技要的是什么?
03:36
Obviously, this in an incomplete question,
51
216000
2000
显然,这是个不完整的问题,
03:38
just as looking at an organism as only a gene
52
218000
2000
就像把生物体看成只是基因
03:40
is an incomplete way of looking at it.
53
220000
2000
也是不完整的看法。
03:42
But it's still very, very productive. So I'm attempting to say,
54
222000
4000
但这仍然很有建设性。因此我试着说,
03:46
if we take technology's view of the world, what does it want?
55
226000
4000
如果我们采取科技的世界观,它要的是什么?
03:50
And I think once we ask that question
56
230000
3000
我认为,一旦我们问这个问题
03:53
we have to go back, actually, to life. Because obviously,
57
233000
5000
我们必须实际上回到生命。因为很明显,
03:58
if we keep extending the origins of technology far back,
58
238000
3000
如果我们追溯科技的起源,
04:01
I think we come back to life at some point.
59
241000
2000
我认为从一定的角度上就会追溯到生命。
04:03
So that's where I want to begin my little exploration, is in life.
60
243000
3000
因此,我就准备从生命开始进行我的小小探索,。
04:06
And like you heard from the previous speakers,
61
246000
3000
就如你听到前几个演讲者,
04:09
we don't really know what life there is on Earth right now.
62
249000
3000
我们不真正知道地球上现有的生命。
04:12
We have really no idea.
63
252000
2000
我们真的毫无概念。
04:14
Craig Venter's tremendous and brilliant attempt
64
254000
4000
克莱格·凡特的雄大抱负
04:18
to DNA sequence things in the ocean is great.
65
258000
3000
要为海洋生物 DNA 定序是伟大的。
04:21
Brian Farrell's work is all part of this agenda to try
66
261000
3000
Brian Farrell 的工作也是尝试中的一部分,
04:24
and actually discover all the species on Earth.
67
264000
2000
而实际要发现地球上所有的物种。
04:26
And one of the things that we should do is just make a grid of the globe
68
266000
3000
我们该做的一件事就是为地球画格子
04:29
and randomly go and inspect all the places that the grid intersects,
69
269000
5000
并随机检视格子的交叉点,
04:34
just to see what's on life. And if we did that
70
274000
2000
看看那里有什么生命。如果我们使用
04:36
with our little Martian probe, which we have not done on Earth,
71
276000
3000
火星探测仪,我们还没在地球上用过,
04:39
we would begin to see some incredible species.
72
279000
4000
我们很可能会看见很多神奇的物种
04:43
This is not on another planet. These are things
73
283000
2000
这不是另外一个星球, 这是
04:45
that are hidden away on our planet.
74
285000
2000
就在我们星球上的东西。
04:47
This is an ant that stores its colleagues' honey in its abdomen.
75
287000
5000
这是一只蚂蚁,它将同伴的蜜放在肚子里。
04:52
Each one of these organisms that we've described -- that you've seen
76
292000
3000
这些生物体的每一个- 你从詹米等人的讲座里
04:55
from Jamie and others, these magnificent things --
77
295000
3000
看过的,这些了不起的东西
04:58
what they're doing, each one of them,
78
298000
2000
它们每一个都在
05:00
is they're hacking the rules of life.
79
300000
3000
都是在潜入修改生命的规则。
05:03
I can't think of a single general principle of biology
80
303000
5000
我想不出哪一条生物学通则
05:08
that does not have an exception somewhere by some organism.
81
308000
4000
是对任何生物体适用而没有例外的。
05:12
Every single thing that we can think of --
82
312000
2000
我们想得到的任何一件事 -
05:14
and if you heard Olivia's talk about the sexual habits,
83
314000
3000
如果你听过 Olivia 谈性习惯,
05:17
you'll realize that there isn't anything we can say that's true for all life,
84
317000
3000
你将知道,没有任何我们谈论的东西是适用所有的生命的。
05:20
because every single one of them is hacking something about it.
85
320000
4000
因为每一个都在修整它的某部分。
05:24
This is a solar-powered sea slug. It's a nudibranch
86
324000
4000
这是太阳能海蛞蝓。它属裸鳃亚目
05:28
that has incorporated chloroplast inside it to drive its energy.
87
328000
6000
它结合叶绿体在体内当它的能源。
05:34
This is another version of that. This is a sea dragon,
88
334000
3000
这是另外一种。这是海龙。
05:37
and the one on the bottom, the blue one, is a juvenile that has not yet
89
337000
6000
那只在底部,蓝色的,是幼虫,
05:43
swallowed the acid, has not yet taken in
90
343000
2000
尚未吞进酸,也尚未食用
05:45
the brown-green algae pond scum into its body to give it energy.
91
345000
7000
棕绿色的海藻浮渣到体内提供能源。
05:52
These are hacks, and if we looked at the general shape
92
352000
5000
这些都是修整,如果我们看修整生命取向
05:57
of the approaches to hacking life there are, current consensus,
93
357000
4000
的一般形式,依目前的共识,
06:01
six kingdoms. Six different broad approaches: the plants,
94
361000
4000
共有六个界。六个广泛的取向:
06:05
the animals, the fungi, the protests -- the little things -- the bacteria
95
365000
3000
植物、动物、真菌、原生生物、
06:08
and the Archaea bacteria. The Archaeas.
96
368000
3000
细菌、古菌。
06:11
Those are the general approaches to life. That's one way to look at life on Earth today.
97
371000
6000
这是生命的一般取向,是看待今日地球生命的一种方式。
06:17
But a more interesting way,
98
377000
2000
但另一个较有趣的方式,
06:19
the current way to take the long view,
99
379000
3000
如果用长远的眼光来看目前的方式
06:22
is to look at it in an evolutionary perspective.
100
382000
3000
便是以演化的观点来看它。
06:25
And here we have a view of evolution where rather than having evolution
101
385000
6000
这里我们有个演化观,它不是线性时间的演化,
06:31
go over the linear time, we have it coming out from the center.
102
391000
3000
我们将它从中心往外扩延。
06:34
So in the center is the most primitive, and this is a genealogical chart
103
394000
4000
在中心是最原始的,这是地球所有生命的系谱。
06:38
of all life on earth. This is all the same six kingdoms.
104
398000
4000
所有相同的六个界都看得到。
06:42
You see 4,000 representative species, and you can see where we are.
105
402000
4000
四千个代表性物种,你看到我们在何处。
06:46
But what I like about this is it shows that
106
406000
1000
我喜欢这个,因为它显示
06:47
every living organism on Earth today is equally evolved.
107
407000
6000
地球上每种生物体都是同等演化的。
06:53
Those fungi and bacteria are as highly evolved as humans.
108
413000
4000
那些真菌和细菌和人类都是高度演化的。
06:57
They've been around just as long and gone through
109
417000
2000
它们同样久存,
06:59
just the same kind of trial and error to get here.
110
419000
4000
并经历相同的考验才发展到今天的样子。
07:03
But we see that each one of these is actually hacking,
111
423000
5000
但我们看到,这些每个都实际上在修整,
07:08
and has a different way of finding out how to do life.
112
428000
2000
且各有不同方式去求取生存。
07:10
And if we take the long-term trends of life, if we begin to say,
113
430000
4000
如果我们看生命的长期趋势,如果我们开始说,
07:14
what does evolution want? There's several things that we see.
114
434000
3000
演化要的是什么?我们看到若干事。
07:17
One of the things about evolution is that nowhere on Earth
115
437000
6000
演化的一件事就是,
07:23
have we ever been where we don't find life.
116
443000
4000
地球上无处找不到生命。
07:27
We find life at the bottom of every long-term,
117
447000
4000
我们发现生命存在于每一个长期、
07:31
long-distance drilling core into the center of rock
118
451000
3000
长距离钻探地心岩石
07:34
that we bring up -- and there's bacteria in the pores of that rock.
119
454000
4000
所取出的核心中- 岩石孔隙中就有细菌。
07:38
And wherever life is, it never retreats. It's ubiquitous and it wants to be more.
120
458000
4000
生命所在之处,它从不撤退。它无所不在,不断增多。
07:42
More and more of the inert matter of the globe
121
462000
3000
地球上越来越多的无生命物质
07:45
is being touched and animated by life.
122
465000
3000
受到生命的刺激及活化。
07:48
The second thing is is we see diversity. We also see specialization.
123
468000
4000
另一件我们看到的是多样性。我们也看到特殊化。
07:52
We see the movement from a general-purpose cell
124
472000
3000
我们看到的是由一般目的的细胞
07:55
to the more specific and specialized.
125
475000
4000
转移成很多更特定、特殊化的细胞。
07:59
And we see a drift towards complexity that's very intuitive.
126
479000
4000
而且我们也很显然地可以看到它们变得复杂
08:03
And actually, we have current data that does show
127
483000
2000
实际上,我们现有数据显示
08:05
that there is an actual drift towards complexity over time.
128
485000
4000
实际上长期来它们是变得更复杂。
08:09
And the last thing, I bring back this nudibranch.
129
489000
2000
最后我再提一下裸鳃亚目。
08:11
One of the things we see about life is that it moves
130
491000
3000
我们看到生命的一件事,即它由内
08:14
from the inner to increasing sociability. And by that it means
131
494000
4000
向外渐渐增长的社会性。也就是
08:18
that there is more and more of life whose entire environment is other life.
132
498000
4000
有越来越多的生命,其整体环境就是于其他生命。
08:22
Like those chloroplast cells --
133
502000
2000
就像那些叶绿体细胞 -
08:24
they're completely surrounded by other life.
134
504000
1000
它们全被其他生命所包围。
08:25
They never touch the inner matter. There is more and more co-evolution.
135
505000
6000
它们从不触及内部物质。有更多的共同演化。
08:31
And so the general, long-term trends of evolution
136
511000
3000
因此,演化的一般长期趋势
08:34
are roughly these five: ubiquity, diversity, specialization,
137
514000
4000
大约有五个:普遍、多样、特殊、
08:38
complexity and socialization. Now, I took that and said,
138
518000
5000
复杂、及社群。我采取此一观点,说,
08:43
OK, what are the long-term trends in technology?
139
523000
5000
那么,科技的长期趋势是怎样的?
08:48
And again, my question is, what does technology want?
140
528000
4000
再次我问:科技要的是什么?
08:52
And so, remarkably, I discovered
141
532000
3000
因此,显然,我发现了
08:55
that there's also a drift toward specialization.
142
535000
3000
它也是移向特殊化。
08:58
That we see there's a general hammer,
143
538000
3000
这里我们看到普通的锤子,
09:01
and hammers become more and more specific over time.
144
541000
3000
锤子随着时间越来越特殊化。
09:04
There's obviously diversity. Huge numbers of things.
145
544000
5000
显然有多样性。许许多多的物品。
09:09
This is all the contents of a Japanese home.
146
549000
2000
这是日本家庭的所有东西。
09:11
I actually had my daughter -- gave her a tally counter,
147
551000
3000
我要我女儿 - 送她一个计数器,
09:14
and I gave her an assignment last summer to go around
148
554000
2000
去年夏天我要她四处看看
09:16
and count the number of species of technology in our household.
149
556000
4000
算算我们家中有多少科技物种。
09:20
And it came up with 6,000 different species of products.
150
560000
3000
结果有六千个产品种类。
09:23
I did some research and found out that the King of England, Henry VIII,
151
563000
3000
我做过研究,发现英格兰王享利八世
09:26
had only about 7,000 items in his household.
152
566000
3000
只有大约七千件物品在他家中。
09:29
And he was the King of England,
153
569000
1000
而他是英格兰王,
09:30
and that was the entire wealth of England at the time.
154
570000
2000
那是当时英格兰的全部财富了。
09:32
So we're seeing huge numbers of diversity in the kinds of things.
155
572000
5000
因此我们看到大量的物品多样性。
09:37
This is a scene from Star Wars where the 3PO comes out
156
577000
4000
这是星球大战的一景,3PO 出现了
09:41
and he sees machines making machines. How depraved!
157
581000
3000
他看到了机器在制作机器。真败坏呀!
09:44
Well, this is actually what we're headed towards: world machines.
158
584000
4000
嗯,这正是我们的走向:世界机器
09:48
And the technology is only being thrown out by other technologies.
159
588000
3000
新的科技只是由其他科技发展出来的。
09:51
Most machines will only ever be in contact with other technology
160
591000
3000
大部分机器将只和其他科技打交道
09:54
and not non-technology, or even life.
161
594000
3000
而不管非科技,甚至生命。
09:57
And thirdly, the idea that machines are becoming biological and complex
162
597000
3000
第三,机器生物化、复杂化的想法
10:00
is at this point a cliche. And I'm happy to say,
163
600000
4000
已是陈腔滥调。而我很高兴地说,
10:04
I was partly responsible for that cliche
164
604000
2000
我要为那个陈腔滥调负部分责任:
10:06
that machines are becoming biological, but that's pretty evident.
165
606000
3000
机器生物化了,那很明显。
10:09
So the major trends in technology evolution actually
166
609000
6000
因此科技演化的主要趋势,实际上
10:15
are the same as in biological evolution. The same drives that we see
167
615000
5000
就像生物演化。我们看到相同的趋势
10:20
towards ubiquity, towards diversity, towards socialization,
168
620000
3000
走向普遍、多样、社群、
10:23
towards complexity. That is maybe not a big surprise
169
623000
4000
复杂。这或许不是大惊奇
10:27
because if we map out, say, the evolution of armor,
170
627000
5000
因为如果我们图示,举例说:盔甲的演化,
10:32
you can actually follow a sort of an evolutionary-type cladistic tree.
171
632000
4000
你其实可以跟踪不同类型的演化的分支
10:36
I suggest that, in fact, technology is the seventh kingdom of life.
172
636000
5000
我认为,事实上科技是生命的第七界。
10:41
That its operations and how it works is so similar
173
641000
4000
它的运作及功能都如此相似
10:45
that we can think of it as the seventh kingdom.
174
645000
4000
我们可以将它当成第七界。
10:49
And so it would be sort of approximately up there,
175
649000
3000
因此它大略就在上方,
10:52
coming out of the animal kingdom. And if we were to do that,
176
652000
6000
出自于动物界。如果这么做,
10:58
we would find out -- we could actually approach technology in this way.
177
658000
3000
我们将发现- 我们实质上可以这样面对科技。
11:01
This is Niles Eldredge. He was the co-developer with Stephen Jay Gould
178
661000
5000
这是尼尔斯·艾崔奇,他和史蒂芬·古尔德一起提出了
11:06
of the theory of punctuated equilibrium.
179
666000
2000
间断平衡理论。
11:08
But as a sideline, he happens to collect cornets.
180
668000
3000
但业余,他也收藏小铜喇叭。
11:11
He has one of the world's largest collections -- about 500 of them.
181
671000
4000
他有着世界上最大的收藏- 大约有500 只。
11:15
And he has decided to treat them as if they were trilobites, or snails,
182
675000
3000
他决定把它们当成旋螺或蜗牛,
11:18
and to do a morphological analysis,
183
678000
2000
进行形态分析,
11:20
and try to derive their genealogical history over time.
184
680000
4000
试着导出它们在时间上的系谱史。
11:24
This is his chart, which is not quite published yet.
185
684000
2000
这是他得到的图表,还没完全公开。
11:26
But the most interesting aspect about this
186
686000
3000
但这最有趣的一处是
11:29
is that if you look at those red lines at the bottom,
187
689000
3000
如果你看那些底下的红线,
11:32
those indicate basically a parentage of a type of cornet
188
692000
7000
它基本上表示某种小铜喇叭的上一代
11:39
that was no longer made. That does not happen in biology.
189
699000
4000
现在已没人制造了。生物学上不是这样。
11:43
When something is extinct, you can't have it as your parent.
190
703000
3000
当某物灭绝后,你无法以它为上一代。
11:46
But that does happen in technology. And it turns out
191
706000
3000
但在科技它会发生。结果呢
11:49
that that's so distinctive that you can actually look at this tree,
192
709000
4000
它非常独特,你可以看这个系谱,
11:53
and you can actually use it to determine
193
713000
3000
可以用它来确定
11:56
that this is a technological system versus a biological system.
194
716000
4000
这是科技系统而非生物系统。
12:00
In fact, this idea of resurrecting the whole idea is so important
195
720000
4000
事实上,观念复活的想法是非常重要的,
12:04
that I began to think about what happens with old technology.
196
724000
4000
因而,我开始思考旧的科技怎么了。
12:08
And it turns out that, in fact, technologies don't die.
197
728000
5000
结果呢,事实上科技不会死。
12:13
So I suggested this to an historian of science, and he said,
198
733000
2000
我向一位科学史学家提起,他说:
12:15
"Well, what about, you know, come on, what about steam cars?
199
735000
5000
「嗯,那么蒸汽车还在吗?
12:20
They're not around anymore." Well actually, they are.
200
740000
4000
它们已消失了。 」而事实上,它们还在。
12:24
In fact, they're so around that you can buy new parts for a Stanley steam automobile.
201
744000
7000
它们不但在,你还能买到Stanley 蒸汽车的新零件。
12:31
And this is a website of a guy who's selling brand new parts
202
751000
3000
这个网站有卖全新的零件
12:34
for the Stanley automobile. And the thing that I liked
203
754000
4000
供应 Stanley 汽车之用。我很喜欢的是
12:38
is sort of this one-click, add-to-your-cart button --
204
758000
3000
它也有一点击就能选货进购物车的按键 -
12:41
(Laughter) --
205
761000
1000
(笑声)
12:42
for buying steam valves. I mean, it was just -- it was really there.
206
762000
5000
可以买蒸汽阀。我是说,真的有人在卖。
12:47
And so, I began to think about, well, maybe that's just a random sample.
207
767000
5000
因此,我开始想,也许这只是个特例。
12:52
Maybe I should do this sort of in a more conservative way.
208
772000
3000
也许我该用比较保守的方式去查看。
12:55
So I took the great big 1895 Montgomery Ward's catalog
209
775000
5000
我拿大部头的 1895年 蒙哥马利沃德商品目录
13:00
and I randomly went through it. And I took a page -- not quite a random page --
210
780000
3000
随机翻翻,我选了一页- 并不完全是随便选择的-
13:03
I took a page that was actually more difficult than others
211
783000
3000
我选的这样实际上是比较难的
13:06
because lots of the pages are filled with things
212
786000
2000
因为许多页面中的东西
13:08
that are still being made. But I took this page
213
788000
3000
都还有在制造。但我选了这一页
13:11
and I said, how many of these things are still being made?
214
791000
4000
我说:这些东西有多少还在制造?
13:15
And not antiques. I want to know how many of these things are still in production.
215
795000
5000
而不是古董。我要知道这些东西有多少还在制造。
13:20
And the answer is: all of them.
216
800000
3000
答案是:全部。
13:23
All of them are still being produced. So you've got corn shellers.
217
803000
7000
它们都还在制造。因此你能买到玉米脱粒机。
13:30
I don't know who needs a corn sheller.
218
810000
2000
我不知道现在还有谁要玉米脱粒机
13:32
Be it corn shellers -- you've got ploughs; you've got fan mills;
219
812000
4000
就是玉米脱壳机- 你还可买到犁、风车磨,
13:36
all these things -- and these are not, again, antiques. These are --
220
816000
3000
所有这些东西都不是古董。这些是 -
13:39
you can order these. You can go to the web and you can buy them now,
221
819000
3000
你可以订购。你可以上网,现在就去买,
13:42
brand-new made. So in a certain sense, technologies don't die.
222
822000
5000
全新制造的。因此,某种观点而言,科技不死。
13:47
In fact, you can buy, for 50 bucks, a stone-age knife
223
827000
7000
事实上,你能花50 美元买到石器时代的刀
13:54
made exactly the same way that they were made 10,000 years ago.
224
834000
4000
以一万年前完全一样的方式做成的。
13:58
It's short, bone handle, 50 bucks. And in fact,
225
838000
4000
它有短的骨柄,50 美元。而事实上,
14:02
what's important is that this information actually never died out.
226
842000
3000
重要的是这项技术信息从未消逝。
14:05
It's not just that it was resurrected. It's continued all along.
227
845000
2000
它不只是复活。它一直存在着。
14:07
And in Papua New Guinea, they were making stone axes
228
847000
3000
而在巴布亞新幾亞,他們做石斧
14:10
until two decades ago, just as a course of practical matters.
229
850000
7000
直到二十年前,好象它还是件实用的东西
14:17
Even when we try to get rid of a technology, it's actually very hard.
230
857000
4000
甚至当我们试图放弃一项科技,那实在很难。
14:21
So we've all heard about the Amish giving up cars.
231
861000
4000
我们都听过阿米希人放弃车子。
14:25
We've heard about the Japanese giving up guns.
232
865000
2000
我们也听过日本人放弃枪炮。
14:27
We've heard about this and that. But I actually went back and
233
867000
2000
我们听过这个、那个。但我回头去找
14:29
took what I could find, the examples in history
234
869000
3000
在历史中找到
14:32
where there have been prohibitions against technology,
235
872000
3000
某些禁止科技的实例是从什么地方开始的,
14:35
and then I tried to find out when they came back in,
236
875000
3000
然后, 我试着找出何时它们又回来了,
14:38
because they always came back in. And it turns out that the time,
237
878000
3000
因为它们总是回头。结果是:时间
14:41
the duration of when they were outlawed and prohibited,
238
881000
2000
受禁止和限制的长度
14:43
is decreasing over time. And that basically, you can delay technology,
239
883000
5000
随着历史发展而减少。那基本上你可以延迟科技,
14:48
but you can't kill it. So this makes sense, because in a certain sense
240
888000
3000
而无法弃绝它。这是有意义的。就某种意义而言,
14:51
what culture is, is the accumulation of ideas.
241
891000
5000
所谓文化就是观念的累积。
14:56
That's what it's for. It's so that ideas don't die out.
242
896000
3000
其目的是要使观念生生不息。
14:59
And when we take that, we take this idea of what culture is doing
243
899000
6000
当我们采取,我们采取这个文化作用的观念
15:05
and add it to what the long-term trajectory -- again, in life's evolution --
244
905000
6000
并将它加到生命演化的长程轨道中
15:11
we find that each case -- each of the major transitions in life --
245
911000
3000
我们发现每次- 生命的每次主要转换-
15:14
what they're really about is accelerating and changing
246
914000
3000
它们真正是在加速与改变
15:17
the way in which evolution happens.
247
917000
3000
演化就是这么发生的。
15:20
They're actually changing the way in which ideas are generated.
248
920000
3000
它们实际上改变着观念产生的方式。
15:23
So all these steps in evolution are increasing, basically,
249
923000
4000
因此,演化的这些步骤基本上都是在
15:27
the evolution of evolvability.
250
927000
2000
增加演化的可演化性。
15:29
So what's happening over time in life is
251
929000
2000
因此,在生命的发展过程
15:31
that the ways in which you generate these new ideas, these new hacks,
252
931000
3000
产生新观念、新俢整的方式也
15:34
are increasing. And the real tricks are ways
253
934000
4000
一直在增加。真正的技巧是
15:38
in which you kind of explore the way of exploring.
254
938000
3000
你怎么去探索的探索方式。
15:41
And then what we see in the singularity,
255
941000
2000
而我们在这独特性中看到的
15:43
that prophesized by Kurzweil and others --
256
943000
3000
由库茨魏尔和其他人所预言的 -
15:46
his idea that technology is accelerating evolution.
257
946000
4000
他认为的科技正在加速演化。
15:50
It's accelerating the way in which we search for ideas.
258
950000
3000
它正在加速我们寻找观念的方式。
15:53
So if you have life hacking --
259
953000
3000
因此,如果你有生命修整 -
15:56
life means hacking, the game of survival --
260
956000
2000
生命就是一个修整,生存竞赛的游戏
15:58
then evolution is a way to extend the game by changing the rules of the game.
261
958000
4000
那么,演化就是改变竞赛规则来延长赛局的方式。
16:02
And what technology is really about is better ways to evolve.
262
962000
4000
而科技真正涉及的,是产生更好的演化方式。
16:06
That is what we call an "infinite game."
263
966000
3000
那就是我们所说的无限赛局,
16:09
That's the definition of "infinite game." A finite game is play to win,
264
969000
3000
是无限赛局的定义。有限赛局是要赢,
16:12
and an infinite game is played to keep playing.
265
972000
3000
无限赛局是要赛个不停。
16:15
And I believe that technology is actually a cosmic force.
266
975000
5000
我相信科技实际上是一种宇宙力。
16:20
The origins of technology was not in 1829,
267
980000
3000
科技的起源不是在 1829 年,
16:23
but was actually at the beginning of the Big Bang,
268
983000
3000
实际上是在「大爆炸」的开始,
16:26
and at that moment the entire huge billions of stars in the universe
269
986000
4000
在宇宙中巨量亿万星球被压缩的时刻。
16:30
were compressed. The entire universe was compressed into a little quantum dot,
270
990000
4000
整个宇宙被压缩为一个小量子点,
16:34
and it was so tight in there, there was no room for any difference at all.
271
994000
3000
它是那么紧,紧得不可能有任何差别。
16:37
That's the definition. There was no temperature.
272
997000
2000
这就是定义。没有温度。
16:39
There was no difference whatsoever. And at the Big Bang,
273
999000
3000
没有任何差别。而在「大爆炸」,
16:42
what it expanded was the potential for difference.
274
1002000
3000
扩散开的是差别的潜能。
16:45
So as it expands and as things expand what we have
275
1005000
3000
因此,当它扩散,当事物扩散开来,
16:48
is the potential for differences, diversity, options, choices,
276
1008000
5000
我们即可能有差别、多样、替换、选择、
16:53
opportunities, possibilities and freedoms.
277
1013000
2000
机会、可能、和自由。
16:55
Those are all basically the same thing.
278
1015000
2000
这些基本上是相同的事。
16:57
And those are the things that technology brings us.
279
1017000
4000
那些就是科技带给我们的事。
17:01
That's what technology is bringing us: choices, possibilities, freedoms.
280
1021000
4000
科技带给我们:选择、可能、自由。
17:05
That's what it's about. It's this expansion of room to make differences.
281
1025000
4000
它就是科技的根本,就是扩大造成差别。
17:09
And so a hammer, when we grab a hammer, that's what we're grabbing.
282
1029000
4000
因此,当我们握鐡锤,我们握的是鐡锤。
17:13
And that's why we continue to grab technology --
283
1033000
3000
因而我们继续握住科技 -
17:16
because we want those things. Those things are good.
284
1036000
2000
因为我们要这些事物。这些事物是好的。
17:18
Differences, freedom, choices, possibilities.
285
1038000
4000
差别、自由、选择、可能。
17:22
And each time we make a new opportunity place,
286
1042000
2000
每次我们制造一个新机会点,
17:24
we're allowing a platform to make new ones.
287
1044000
4000
我们即容许一个平台去制造更多新的。
17:28
And I think it's really important. Because if you can imagine
288
1048000
3000
我认为这真的很重要。因为如果你能想像
17:31
Mozart before the technology of the piano was invented --
289
1051000
3000
莫札特生在钢琴科技发明之前,
17:34
what a loss to society there would be.
290
1054000
2000
那会是社会的多大损失。
17:36
Imagine Van Gogh being born
291
1056000
2000
想像梵谷生在
17:38
before the technologies of cheap oil paints.
292
1058000
3000
廉价油彩的科技之前。
17:41
Imagine Hitchcock before the technologies of film.
293
1061000
4000
想像希区考克生在电影科技之前。
17:45
Somewhere, today, there are millions of young children being born
294
1065000
5000
今天某处有好几百万小孩出生
17:50
whose technology of self-expression has not yet been invented.
295
1070000
5000
他们自我表达的科技尚未发明。
17:55
We have a moral obligation to invent technology
296
1075000
3000
我们有发明科技的道德义务
17:58
so that every person on the globe has the potential
297
1078000
2000
使地球上每个人有潜能去
18:00
to realize their true difference.
298
1080000
3000
实现他们的真正差别。
18:03
We want a trillion zillion species of one individuals.
299
1083000
3000
我们需要亿万个这样的个体。
18:06
That's what technology really wants.
300
1086000
3000
那就是科技真正要的。
18:09
I'm going to skip through some of the objections
301
1089000
2000
我要跳过一些反对意见
18:11
because I don't have answers to why there's deforestation.
302
1091000
4000
因为我不知道为何有森林滥伐。
18:15
I don't have an answer to the fact that there seem to be
303
1095000
3000
我也不知道为什么, 至少看来其实是有一些
18:18
bad technologies. I don't have an answer to
304
1098000
2000
坏的科技。我也不知道
18:20
how this impacts on our dignity, other than to suggest that
305
1100000
4000
这如何冲击我们的尊严,我只是提议
18:24
maybe the seventh kingdom, because it's so close to what life is about,
306
1104000
6000
这个第七界,因为它非常接近生命形式,
18:30
maybe we can bring it back and have it help us monitor life.
307
1110000
3000
也许我们可以带回它,要它帮我们监测生命。
18:33
Maybe in some ways
308
1113000
2000
或许以某些方式
18:35
the fact that what we're trying to do with technology is find a good home for it.
309
1115000
5000
事实上我们试着要做的正是替科技找到一个好的家。
18:40
It's a terrible thing to spray DDT on cotton fields,
310
1120000
3000
在棉花田喷洒滴滴涕是可怕的事,
18:43
but it's a really good thing to use
311
1123000
2000
但好的一面是用它来
18:45
to eliminate millions of cases of death due to malaria in a small village.
312
1125000
4000
消灭小村庄疟疾导致的数百万死亡案例。
18:49
Our humanity is actually defined by technology.
313
1129000
3000
人道实际上是由科技定义的。
18:52
All the things that we think that we really like about humanity
314
1132000
3000
所有我们认为我们喜欢的人道主义
18:55
is being driven by technology. This is the infinite game.
315
1135000
5000
都是由科技驱导的。这就是无限赛局。
19:00
That's what we're talking about.
316
1140000
2000
我们谈的就是这个。
19:02
You see, technology is a way to evolve the evolution.
317
1142000
4000
看,科技是推展演化的方法。
19:06
It's a way to explore possibilities and opportunities and create more.
318
1146000
6000
它是个方法用来探索可能和机会,并创造更多。
19:12
And it's actually a way of playing the game, of playing all the games.
319
1152000
5000
它实际上是参与赛局、玩各种赛局的方法。
19:17
That's what technology wants.
320
1157000
2000
那就是科技要的。
19:19
And so when I think about what technology wants,
321
1159000
3000
因此,当我想到科技要的是什么,
19:22
I think that it has to do with the fact that every person here -- and I really believe this --
322
1162000
5000
我认为,它涉及这里的每个人,我深信:
19:27
every person here has an assignment. And your assignment is
323
1167000
5000
这里的每个人都有一项任务。你的任务就是
19:32
to spend your life discovering what your assignment is.
324
1172000
3000
究其一生找出你的任务是什么。
19:35
That recursive nature is the infinite game.
325
1175000
3000
那个递回的本质就是无限赛局。
19:38
And if you play that well, you'll have other people involved,
326
1178000
3000
如果你玩得好,你将有他人参与,
19:41
so even that game extends and continues even when you're gone.
327
1181000
4000
赛局会延长并持续,即使你已离开。
19:45
That is the infinite game. And what technology is
328
1185000
3000
那就是无限赛局。科技就是
19:48
is the medium in which we play that infinite game.
329
1188000
3000
我们参与无限赛局的中介。
19:51
And so I think that we should embrace technology
330
1191000
3000
因此我觉得我们应该拥抱科技
19:54
because it is an essential part of our journey
331
1194000
3000
因为它是我们找出自我的旅程中
19:57
in finding out who we are.
332
1197000
2000
至为关键的部分。
19:59
Thank you.
333
1199000
2000
谢谢大家。
20:01
(Applause)
334
1201000
1000
(掌声)
关于本网站

这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7