Kevin Kelly: How technology evolves

85,390 views ・ 2007-01-12

TED


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翻译人员: Jenny Yang 校对人员: Tony Yet
00:25
I don't know about you, but I haven't quite figured out
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我不知道你们怎么想,不过我还没搞明白
00:29
exactly what technology means in my life.
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到底科技对我的生活意味着什么
00:32
I've spent the past year thinking about what it really should be about.
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我花了过去一年在想,那到底该怎样
00:39
Should I be pro-technology? Should I embrace it full arms?
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我要亲科技吗?我要全心拥抱它吗?
00:42
Should I be wary? Like you, I'm very tempted by the latest thing.
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我要谨慎一些吗?和你们一样,最新的事物对我总是很有诱惑
00:47
But at the other hand, a couple of years ago
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但另一方面,几年前
00:49
I gave up all of my possessions,
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我放弃我所有的收藏
00:52
sold all my technology -- except for a bicycle --
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用自身的力量,
00:54
and rode across 3,000 miles on the U.S. back roads under the power of my one body,
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骑了三千英里的美国小路,只靠自身的力量,
01:00
fuelled mostly by Twinkies and junk food.
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大部分只吃奶油蛋糕卷和垃圾食物
01:03
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:04
And I've since then tried to keep technology
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自此,我试着和科技保持距离,
01:06
at arm's length in many ways, so it doesn't master my life.
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试图不让它来支配我的生活
01:10
At the same time, I run a website on cool tools,
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而同时,我又管着一个酷品网站,
01:14
where I issue a daily obsession of the latest things in technology.
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每天发表一篇文章介绍最新的科技产品
01:18
So I'm still perplexed about what the true meaning of technology is
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所以我还是对到底什么是科技真正的意义感到迷茫
01:24
as it relates to humanity, as it relates to nature,
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它与人类的关系,与自然的关系,
01:28
as it relates to the spiritual.
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与精神的关系。
01:31
And I'm not even sure we know what technology is.
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我甚至不确定我们真的认识科技。
01:35
And one definition of technology is that which is first recorded.
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有一个最早对科技的定义。
01:41
This is the first example of the modern use of technology that I can find.
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这是我找到的「科技」一词现代用法的首例
01:46
It was the suggested syllabus for dealing with
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它出现在一本教学大纲中
01:50
the Applied Arts and Science at Cambridge University in 1829.
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是剑桥大学1829年出的「应用艺术与科学」,
01:56
Before that, obviously, technology didn't exist. But obviously it did.
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那之前,显然「科技」一词并不存在。但显然科技是存在的。
02:01
I like one of the definitions that Alan Kay has for technology.
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我喜欢Alan Kay对科技作的一个定义。
02:05
He says technology is anything that was invented after you were born.
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他说:科技是你出生后发明的任何东西。
02:09
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:10
So it sums up a lot of what we're talking about.
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但它涵盖了许多我们讨论的事物。
02:14
Danny Hillis actually has an update on that --
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Danny Hillis 事实上有个更新版本 -
02:16
he says technology is anything that doesn't quite work yet.
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他说:科技是还不怎么能用的任何东西。
02:20
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:21
Which also, I think, gets into a little bit of our current idea.
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我认为,这也和我们现在的想法有关。
02:26
But I was interested in another definition of technology.
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但我却对科技的另一个定义感兴趣。
02:29
Something, again, that went back to something more fundamental.
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它再次触及到更基本的一些东西
02:33
Something that was deeper. And as I struggled to understand that,
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更深层的一些东西。当我尽力去理解它时,
02:39
I came up with a way of framing the question
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我忽然找到了一种认识这个问题的思路,
02:42
that seemed to work for me in my investigations.
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它似乎更符合我探索的需求。
02:44
And I'm, this morning, going to talk about this for the first time.
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今天上午我就首次来谈它。
02:47
So this is a very rough attempt to think out loud.
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因此这是一种边想边说的粗略尝试。
02:52
The question that I came up with was this question:
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我得到的问题就是这个问题,
02:56
what does technology want? And by that, I don't mean,
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科技要的是什么?这里的意思不是指
02:59
does it want chocolate or vanilla? By what it wants, I mean,
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它要巧克力或香草。我指的是:
03:04
what are its inherent trends and biases?
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它的固有趋势与偏向是什么?
03:06
What are its tendencies over time? One way to think about this is
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在整个发展长河中, 它的走向是什么?一种思考的方法是:
03:11
thinking about biological organisms, which we've heard a lot about.
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想想生物组织体,我们听到很多了。
03:15
And the trick that Richard Dawkins does, which is to say,
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理查德·道金斯的技巧是:
03:18
to look at them as simply as genes, as vehicles for genes.
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将它们看成只是基因,是基因载体。
03:22
So he's saying, what do genes want? The selfish gene.
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因此他说,基因要什么?自私的基因。
03:25
And I'm applying a similar trick to say,
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因此我用相似的技巧说:
03:28
what if we looked at the universe in our culture
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如果我们透过科技眼光
03:31
through the eyes of technology? What does technology want?
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观看我们的文化世界,科技要的是什么?
03:36
Obviously, this in an incomplete question,
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显然,这是个不完整的问题,
03:38
just as looking at an organism as only a gene
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就像把生物体看成只是基因
03:40
is an incomplete way of looking at it.
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也是不完整的看法。
03:42
But it's still very, very productive. So I'm attempting to say,
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但这仍然很有建设性。因此我试着说,
03:46
if we take technology's view of the world, what does it want?
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如果我们采取科技的世界观,它要的是什么?
03:50
And I think once we ask that question
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我认为,一旦我们问这个问题
03:53
we have to go back, actually, to life. Because obviously,
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我们必须实际上回到生命。因为很明显,
03:58
if we keep extending the origins of technology far back,
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如果我们追溯科技的起源,
04:01
I think we come back to life at some point.
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我认为从一定的角度上就会追溯到生命。
04:03
So that's where I want to begin my little exploration, is in life.
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因此,我就准备从生命开始进行我的小小探索,。
04:06
And like you heard from the previous speakers,
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就如你听到前几个演讲者,
04:09
we don't really know what life there is on Earth right now.
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我们不真正知道地球上现有的生命。
04:12
We have really no idea.
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我们真的毫无概念。
04:14
Craig Venter's tremendous and brilliant attempt
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克莱格·凡特的雄大抱负
04:18
to DNA sequence things in the ocean is great.
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要为海洋生物 DNA 定序是伟大的。
04:21
Brian Farrell's work is all part of this agenda to try
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Brian Farrell 的工作也是尝试中的一部分,
04:24
and actually discover all the species on Earth.
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而实际要发现地球上所有的物种。
04:26
And one of the things that we should do is just make a grid of the globe
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我们该做的一件事就是为地球画格子
04:29
and randomly go and inspect all the places that the grid intersects,
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并随机检视格子的交叉点,
04:34
just to see what's on life. And if we did that
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看看那里有什么生命。如果我们使用
04:36
with our little Martian probe, which we have not done on Earth,
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火星探测仪,我们还没在地球上用过,
04:39
we would begin to see some incredible species.
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我们很可能会看见很多神奇的物种
04:43
This is not on another planet. These are things
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这不是另外一个星球, 这是
04:45
that are hidden away on our planet.
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就在我们星球上的东西。
04:47
This is an ant that stores its colleagues' honey in its abdomen.
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这是一只蚂蚁,它将同伴的蜜放在肚子里。
04:52
Each one of these organisms that we've described -- that you've seen
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这些生物体的每一个- 你从詹米等人的讲座里
04:55
from Jamie and others, these magnificent things --
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看过的,这些了不起的东西
04:58
what they're doing, each one of them,
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它们每一个都在
05:00
is they're hacking the rules of life.
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都是在潜入修改生命的规则。
05:03
I can't think of a single general principle of biology
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我想不出哪一条生物学通则
05:08
that does not have an exception somewhere by some organism.
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是对任何生物体适用而没有例外的。
05:12
Every single thing that we can think of --
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我们想得到的任何一件事 -
05:14
and if you heard Olivia's talk about the sexual habits,
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如果你听过 Olivia 谈性习惯,
05:17
you'll realize that there isn't anything we can say that's true for all life,
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你将知道,没有任何我们谈论的东西是适用所有的生命的。
05:20
because every single one of them is hacking something about it.
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因为每一个都在修整它的某部分。
05:24
This is a solar-powered sea slug. It's a nudibranch
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这是太阳能海蛞蝓。它属裸鳃亚目
05:28
that has incorporated chloroplast inside it to drive its energy.
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它结合叶绿体在体内当它的能源。
05:34
This is another version of that. This is a sea dragon,
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这是另外一种。这是海龙。
05:37
and the one on the bottom, the blue one, is a juvenile that has not yet
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那只在底部,蓝色的,是幼虫,
05:43
swallowed the acid, has not yet taken in
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尚未吞进酸,也尚未食用
05:45
the brown-green algae pond scum into its body to give it energy.
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棕绿色的海藻浮渣到体内提供能源。
05:52
These are hacks, and if we looked at the general shape
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这些都是修整,如果我们看修整生命取向
05:57
of the approaches to hacking life there are, current consensus,
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的一般形式,依目前的共识,
06:01
six kingdoms. Six different broad approaches: the plants,
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共有六个界。六个广泛的取向:
06:05
the animals, the fungi, the protests -- the little things -- the bacteria
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植物、动物、真菌、原生生物、
06:08
and the Archaea bacteria. The Archaeas.
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细菌、古菌。
06:11
Those are the general approaches to life. That's one way to look at life on Earth today.
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这是生命的一般取向,是看待今日地球生命的一种方式。
06:17
But a more interesting way,
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但另一个较有趣的方式,
06:19
the current way to take the long view,
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如果用长远的眼光来看目前的方式
06:22
is to look at it in an evolutionary perspective.
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便是以演化的观点来看它。
06:25
And here we have a view of evolution where rather than having evolution
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这里我们有个演化观,它不是线性时间的演化,
06:31
go over the linear time, we have it coming out from the center.
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我们将它从中心往外扩延。
06:34
So in the center is the most primitive, and this is a genealogical chart
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在中心是最原始的,这是地球所有生命的系谱。
06:38
of all life on earth. This is all the same six kingdoms.
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所有相同的六个界都看得到。
06:42
You see 4,000 representative species, and you can see where we are.
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四千个代表性物种,你看到我们在何处。
06:46
But what I like about this is it shows that
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我喜欢这个,因为它显示
06:47
every living organism on Earth today is equally evolved.
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地球上每种生物体都是同等演化的。
06:53
Those fungi and bacteria are as highly evolved as humans.
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那些真菌和细菌和人类都是高度演化的。
06:57
They've been around just as long and gone through
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它们同样久存,
06:59
just the same kind of trial and error to get here.
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并经历相同的考验才发展到今天的样子。
07:03
But we see that each one of these is actually hacking,
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但我们看到,这些每个都实际上在修整,
07:08
and has a different way of finding out how to do life.
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且各有不同方式去求取生存。
07:10
And if we take the long-term trends of life, if we begin to say,
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如果我们看生命的长期趋势,如果我们开始说,
07:14
what does evolution want? There's several things that we see.
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演化要的是什么?我们看到若干事。
07:17
One of the things about evolution is that nowhere on Earth
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演化的一件事就是,
07:23
have we ever been where we don't find life.
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地球上无处找不到生命。
07:27
We find life at the bottom of every long-term,
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我们发现生命存在于每一个长期、
07:31
long-distance drilling core into the center of rock
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长距离钻探地心岩石
07:34
that we bring up -- and there's bacteria in the pores of that rock.
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所取出的核心中- 岩石孔隙中就有细菌。
07:38
And wherever life is, it never retreats. It's ubiquitous and it wants to be more.
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生命所在之处,它从不撤退。它无所不在,不断增多。
07:42
More and more of the inert matter of the globe
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地球上越来越多的无生命物质
07:45
is being touched and animated by life.
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受到生命的刺激及活化。
07:48
The second thing is is we see diversity. We also see specialization.
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另一件我们看到的是多样性。我们也看到特殊化。
07:52
We see the movement from a general-purpose cell
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我们看到的是由一般目的的细胞
07:55
to the more specific and specialized.
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转移成很多更特定、特殊化的细胞。
07:59
And we see a drift towards complexity that's very intuitive.
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而且我们也很显然地可以看到它们变得复杂
08:03
And actually, we have current data that does show
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实际上,我们现有数据显示
08:05
that there is an actual drift towards complexity over time.
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实际上长期来它们是变得更复杂。
08:09
And the last thing, I bring back this nudibranch.
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最后我再提一下裸鳃亚目。
08:11
One of the things we see about life is that it moves
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我们看到生命的一件事,即它由内
08:14
from the inner to increasing sociability. And by that it means
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向外渐渐增长的社会性。也就是
08:18
that there is more and more of life whose entire environment is other life.
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有越来越多的生命,其整体环境就是于其他生命。
08:22
Like those chloroplast cells --
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就像那些叶绿体细胞 -
08:24
they're completely surrounded by other life.
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它们全被其他生命所包围。
08:25
They never touch the inner matter. There is more and more co-evolution.
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它们从不触及内部物质。有更多的共同演化。
08:31
And so the general, long-term trends of evolution
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因此,演化的一般长期趋势
08:34
are roughly these five: ubiquity, diversity, specialization,
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大约有五个:普遍、多样、特殊、
08:38
complexity and socialization. Now, I took that and said,
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复杂、及社群。我采取此一观点,说,
08:43
OK, what are the long-term trends in technology?
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那么,科技的长期趋势是怎样的?
08:48
And again, my question is, what does technology want?
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再次我问:科技要的是什么?
08:52
And so, remarkably, I discovered
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因此,显然,我发现了
08:55
that there's also a drift toward specialization.
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它也是移向特殊化。
08:58
That we see there's a general hammer,
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这里我们看到普通的锤子,
09:01
and hammers become more and more specific over time.
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锤子随着时间越来越特殊化。
09:04
There's obviously diversity. Huge numbers of things.
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显然有多样性。许许多多的物品。
09:09
This is all the contents of a Japanese home.
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这是日本家庭的所有东西。
09:11
I actually had my daughter -- gave her a tally counter,
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我要我女儿 - 送她一个计数器,
09:14
and I gave her an assignment last summer to go around
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去年夏天我要她四处看看
09:16
and count the number of species of technology in our household.
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算算我们家中有多少科技物种。
09:20
And it came up with 6,000 different species of products.
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结果有六千个产品种类。
09:23
I did some research and found out that the King of England, Henry VIII,
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我做过研究,发现英格兰王享利八世
09:26
had only about 7,000 items in his household.
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只有大约七千件物品在他家中。
09:29
And he was the King of England,
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而他是英格兰王,
09:30
and that was the entire wealth of England at the time.
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那是当时英格兰的全部财富了。
09:32
So we're seeing huge numbers of diversity in the kinds of things.
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因此我们看到大量的物品多样性。
09:37
This is a scene from Star Wars where the 3PO comes out
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这是星球大战的一景,3PO 出现了
09:41
and he sees machines making machines. How depraved!
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他看到了机器在制作机器。真败坏呀!
09:44
Well, this is actually what we're headed towards: world machines.
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嗯,这正是我们的走向:世界机器
09:48
And the technology is only being thrown out by other technologies.
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新的科技只是由其他科技发展出来的。
09:51
Most machines will only ever be in contact with other technology
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大部分机器将只和其他科技打交道
09:54
and not non-technology, or even life.
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而不管非科技,甚至生命。
09:57
And thirdly, the idea that machines are becoming biological and complex
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第三,机器生物化、复杂化的想法
10:00
is at this point a cliche. And I'm happy to say,
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已是陈腔滥调。而我很高兴地说,
10:04
I was partly responsible for that cliche
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我要为那个陈腔滥调负部分责任:
10:06
that machines are becoming biological, but that's pretty evident.
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机器生物化了,那很明显。
10:09
So the major trends in technology evolution actually
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因此科技演化的主要趋势,实际上
10:15
are the same as in biological evolution. The same drives that we see
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就像生物演化。我们看到相同的趋势
10:20
towards ubiquity, towards diversity, towards socialization,
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走向普遍、多样、社群、
10:23
towards complexity. That is maybe not a big surprise
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复杂。这或许不是大惊奇
10:27
because if we map out, say, the evolution of armor,
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因为如果我们图示,举例说:盔甲的演化,
10:32
you can actually follow a sort of an evolutionary-type cladistic tree.
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你其实可以跟踪不同类型的演化的分支
10:36
I suggest that, in fact, technology is the seventh kingdom of life.
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我认为,事实上科技是生命的第七界。
10:41
That its operations and how it works is so similar
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它的运作及功能都如此相似
10:45
that we can think of it as the seventh kingdom.
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我们可以将它当成第七界。
10:49
And so it would be sort of approximately up there,
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因此它大略就在上方,
10:52
coming out of the animal kingdom. And if we were to do that,
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出自于动物界。如果这么做,
10:58
we would find out -- we could actually approach technology in this way.
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我们将发现- 我们实质上可以这样面对科技。
11:01
This is Niles Eldredge. He was the co-developer with Stephen Jay Gould
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这是尼尔斯·艾崔奇,他和史蒂芬·古尔德一起提出了
11:06
of the theory of punctuated equilibrium.
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间断平衡理论。
11:08
But as a sideline, he happens to collect cornets.
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但业余,他也收藏小铜喇叭。
11:11
He has one of the world's largest collections -- about 500 of them.
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他有着世界上最大的收藏- 大约有500 只。
11:15
And he has decided to treat them as if they were trilobites, or snails,
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他决定把它们当成旋螺或蜗牛,
11:18
and to do a morphological analysis,
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进行形态分析,
11:20
and try to derive their genealogical history over time.
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试着导出它们在时间上的系谱史。
11:24
This is his chart, which is not quite published yet.
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这是他得到的图表,还没完全公开。
11:26
But the most interesting aspect about this
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但这最有趣的一处是
11:29
is that if you look at those red lines at the bottom,
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如果你看那些底下的红线,
11:32
those indicate basically a parentage of a type of cornet
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它基本上表示某种小铜喇叭的上一代
11:39
that was no longer made. That does not happen in biology.
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现在已没人制造了。生物学上不是这样。
11:43
When something is extinct, you can't have it as your parent.
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当某物灭绝后,你无法以它为上一代。
11:46
But that does happen in technology. And it turns out
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但在科技它会发生。结果呢
11:49
that that's so distinctive that you can actually look at this tree,
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它非常独特,你可以看这个系谱,
11:53
and you can actually use it to determine
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可以用它来确定
11:56
that this is a technological system versus a biological system.
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这是科技系统而非生物系统。
12:00
In fact, this idea of resurrecting the whole idea is so important
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事实上,观念复活的想法是非常重要的,
12:04
that I began to think about what happens with old technology.
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因而,我开始思考旧的科技怎么了。
12:08
And it turns out that, in fact, technologies don't die.
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结果呢,事实上科技不会死。
12:13
So I suggested this to an historian of science, and he said,
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我向一位科学史学家提起,他说:
12:15
"Well, what about, you know, come on, what about steam cars?
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「嗯,那么蒸汽车还在吗?
12:20
They're not around anymore." Well actually, they are.
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它们已消失了。 」而事实上,它们还在。
12:24
In fact, they're so around that you can buy new parts for a Stanley steam automobile.
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它们不但在,你还能买到Stanley 蒸汽车的新零件。
12:31
And this is a website of a guy who's selling brand new parts
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这个网站有卖全新的零件
12:34
for the Stanley automobile. And the thing that I liked
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供应 Stanley 汽车之用。我很喜欢的是
12:38
is sort of this one-click, add-to-your-cart button --
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它也有一点击就能选货进购物车的按键 -
12:41
(Laughter) --
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(笑声)
12:42
for buying steam valves. I mean, it was just -- it was really there.
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可以买蒸汽阀。我是说,真的有人在卖。
12:47
And so, I began to think about, well, maybe that's just a random sample.
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因此,我开始想,也许这只是个特例。
12:52
Maybe I should do this sort of in a more conservative way.
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也许我该用比较保守的方式去查看。
12:55
So I took the great big 1895 Montgomery Ward's catalog
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我拿大部头的 1895年 蒙哥马利沃德商品目录
13:00
and I randomly went through it. And I took a page -- not quite a random page --
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随机翻翻,我选了一页- 并不完全是随便选择的-
13:03
I took a page that was actually more difficult than others
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我选的这样实际上是比较难的
13:06
because lots of the pages are filled with things
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因为许多页面中的东西
13:08
that are still being made. But I took this page
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都还有在制造。但我选了这一页
13:11
and I said, how many of these things are still being made?
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我说:这些东西有多少还在制造?
13:15
And not antiques. I want to know how many of these things are still in production.
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而不是古董。我要知道这些东西有多少还在制造。
13:20
And the answer is: all of them.
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答案是:全部。
13:23
All of them are still being produced. So you've got corn shellers.
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它们都还在制造。因此你能买到玉米脱粒机。
13:30
I don't know who needs a corn sheller.
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我不知道现在还有谁要玉米脱粒机
13:32
Be it corn shellers -- you've got ploughs; you've got fan mills;
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就是玉米脱壳机- 你还可买到犁、风车磨,
13:36
all these things -- and these are not, again, antiques. These are --
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所有这些东西都不是古董。这些是 -
13:39
you can order these. You can go to the web and you can buy them now,
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你可以订购。你可以上网,现在就去买,
13:42
brand-new made. So in a certain sense, technologies don't die.
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全新制造的。因此,某种观点而言,科技不死。
13:47
In fact, you can buy, for 50 bucks, a stone-age knife
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事实上,你能花50 美元买到石器时代的刀
13:54
made exactly the same way that they were made 10,000 years ago.
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以一万年前完全一样的方式做成的。
13:58
It's short, bone handle, 50 bucks. And in fact,
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它有短的骨柄,50 美元。而事实上,
14:02
what's important is that this information actually never died out.
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重要的是这项技术信息从未消逝。
14:05
It's not just that it was resurrected. It's continued all along.
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它不只是复活。它一直存在着。
14:07
And in Papua New Guinea, they were making stone axes
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而在巴布亞新幾亞,他們做石斧
14:10
until two decades ago, just as a course of practical matters.
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直到二十年前,好象它还是件实用的东西
14:17
Even when we try to get rid of a technology, it's actually very hard.
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甚至当我们试图放弃一项科技,那实在很难。
14:21
So we've all heard about the Amish giving up cars.
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我们都听过阿米希人放弃车子。
14:25
We've heard about the Japanese giving up guns.
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我们也听过日本人放弃枪炮。
14:27
We've heard about this and that. But I actually went back and
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我们听过这个、那个。但我回头去找
14:29
took what I could find, the examples in history
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在历史中找到
14:32
where there have been prohibitions against technology,
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某些禁止科技的实例是从什么地方开始的,
14:35
and then I tried to find out when they came back in,
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然后, 我试着找出何时它们又回来了,
14:38
because they always came back in. And it turns out that the time,
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因为它们总是回头。结果是:时间
14:41
the duration of when they were outlawed and prohibited,
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受禁止和限制的长度
14:43
is decreasing over time. And that basically, you can delay technology,
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随着历史发展而减少。那基本上你可以延迟科技,
14:48
but you can't kill it. So this makes sense, because in a certain sense
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而无法弃绝它。这是有意义的。就某种意义而言,
14:51
what culture is, is the accumulation of ideas.
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所谓文化就是观念的累积。
14:56
That's what it's for. It's so that ideas don't die out.
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其目的是要使观念生生不息。
14:59
And when we take that, we take this idea of what culture is doing
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当我们采取,我们采取这个文化作用的观念
15:05
and add it to what the long-term trajectory -- again, in life's evolution --
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并将它加到生命演化的长程轨道中
15:11
we find that each case -- each of the major transitions in life --
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我们发现每次- 生命的每次主要转换-
15:14
what they're really about is accelerating and changing
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它们真正是在加速与改变
15:17
the way in which evolution happens.
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演化就是这么发生的。
15:20
They're actually changing the way in which ideas are generated.
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它们实际上改变着观念产生的方式。
15:23
So all these steps in evolution are increasing, basically,
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因此,演化的这些步骤基本上都是在
15:27
the evolution of evolvability.
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增加演化的可演化性。
15:29
So what's happening over time in life is
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因此,在生命的发展过程
15:31
that the ways in which you generate these new ideas, these new hacks,
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产生新观念、新俢整的方式也
15:34
are increasing. And the real tricks are ways
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一直在增加。真正的技巧是
15:38
in which you kind of explore the way of exploring.
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你怎么去探索的探索方式。
15:41
And then what we see in the singularity,
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而我们在这独特性中看到的
15:43
that prophesized by Kurzweil and others --
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由库茨魏尔和其他人所预言的 -
15:46
his idea that technology is accelerating evolution.
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他认为的科技正在加速演化。
15:50
It's accelerating the way in which we search for ideas.
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它正在加速我们寻找观念的方式。
15:53
So if you have life hacking --
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因此,如果你有生命修整 -
15:56
life means hacking, the game of survival --
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生命就是一个修整,生存竞赛的游戏
15:58
then evolution is a way to extend the game by changing the rules of the game.
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那么,演化就是改变竞赛规则来延长赛局的方式。
16:02
And what technology is really about is better ways to evolve.
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而科技真正涉及的,是产生更好的演化方式。
16:06
That is what we call an "infinite game."
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那就是我们所说的无限赛局,
16:09
That's the definition of "infinite game." A finite game is play to win,
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是无限赛局的定义。有限赛局是要赢,
16:12
and an infinite game is played to keep playing.
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无限赛局是要赛个不停。
16:15
And I believe that technology is actually a cosmic force.
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我相信科技实际上是一种宇宙力。
16:20
The origins of technology was not in 1829,
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科技的起源不是在 1829 年,
16:23
but was actually at the beginning of the Big Bang,
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实际上是在「大爆炸」的开始,
16:26
and at that moment the entire huge billions of stars in the universe
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在宇宙中巨量亿万星球被压缩的时刻。
16:30
were compressed. The entire universe was compressed into a little quantum dot,
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整个宇宙被压缩为一个小量子点,
16:34
and it was so tight in there, there was no room for any difference at all.
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它是那么紧,紧得不可能有任何差别。
16:37
That's the definition. There was no temperature.
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这就是定义。没有温度。
16:39
There was no difference whatsoever. And at the Big Bang,
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没有任何差别。而在「大爆炸」,
16:42
what it expanded was the potential for difference.
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扩散开的是差别的潜能。
16:45
So as it expands and as things expand what we have
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因此,当它扩散,当事物扩散开来,
16:48
is the potential for differences, diversity, options, choices,
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我们即可能有差别、多样、替换、选择、
16:53
opportunities, possibilities and freedoms.
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机会、可能、和自由。
16:55
Those are all basically the same thing.
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这些基本上是相同的事。
16:57
And those are the things that technology brings us.
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那些就是科技带给我们的事。
17:01
That's what technology is bringing us: choices, possibilities, freedoms.
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科技带给我们:选择、可能、自由。
17:05
That's what it's about. It's this expansion of room to make differences.
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它就是科技的根本,就是扩大造成差别。
17:09
And so a hammer, when we grab a hammer, that's what we're grabbing.
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因此,当我们握鐡锤,我们握的是鐡锤。
17:13
And that's why we continue to grab technology --
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因而我们继续握住科技 -
17:16
because we want those things. Those things are good.
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因为我们要这些事物。这些事物是好的。
17:18
Differences, freedom, choices, possibilities.
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差别、自由、选择、可能。
17:22
And each time we make a new opportunity place,
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每次我们制造一个新机会点,
17:24
we're allowing a platform to make new ones.
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我们即容许一个平台去制造更多新的。
17:28
And I think it's really important. Because if you can imagine
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我认为这真的很重要。因为如果你能想像
17:31
Mozart before the technology of the piano was invented --
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莫札特生在钢琴科技发明之前,
17:34
what a loss to society there would be.
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那会是社会的多大损失。
17:36
Imagine Van Gogh being born
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想像梵谷生在
17:38
before the technologies of cheap oil paints.
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廉价油彩的科技之前。
17:41
Imagine Hitchcock before the technologies of film.
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想像希区考克生在电影科技之前。
17:45
Somewhere, today, there are millions of young children being born
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今天某处有好几百万小孩出生
17:50
whose technology of self-expression has not yet been invented.
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他们自我表达的科技尚未发明。
17:55
We have a moral obligation to invent technology
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我们有发明科技的道德义务
17:58
so that every person on the globe has the potential
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使地球上每个人有潜能去
18:00
to realize their true difference.
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实现他们的真正差别。
18:03
We want a trillion zillion species of one individuals.
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我们需要亿万个这样的个体。
18:06
That's what technology really wants.
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那就是科技真正要的。
18:09
I'm going to skip through some of the objections
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我要跳过一些反对意见
18:11
because I don't have answers to why there's deforestation.
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因为我不知道为何有森林滥伐。
18:15
I don't have an answer to the fact that there seem to be
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我也不知道为什么, 至少看来其实是有一些
18:18
bad technologies. I don't have an answer to
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坏的科技。我也不知道
18:20
how this impacts on our dignity, other than to suggest that
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这如何冲击我们的尊严,我只是提议
18:24
maybe the seventh kingdom, because it's so close to what life is about,
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这个第七界,因为它非常接近生命形式,
18:30
maybe we can bring it back and have it help us monitor life.
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也许我们可以带回它,要它帮我们监测生命。
18:33
Maybe in some ways
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或许以某些方式
18:35
the fact that what we're trying to do with technology is find a good home for it.
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事实上我们试着要做的正是替科技找到一个好的家。
18:40
It's a terrible thing to spray DDT on cotton fields,
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在棉花田喷洒滴滴涕是可怕的事,
18:43
but it's a really good thing to use
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但好的一面是用它来
18:45
to eliminate millions of cases of death due to malaria in a small village.
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消灭小村庄疟疾导致的数百万死亡案例。
18:49
Our humanity is actually defined by technology.
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人道实际上是由科技定义的。
18:52
All the things that we think that we really like about humanity
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所有我们认为我们喜欢的人道主义
18:55
is being driven by technology. This is the infinite game.
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都是由科技驱导的。这就是无限赛局。
19:00
That's what we're talking about.
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我们谈的就是这个。
19:02
You see, technology is a way to evolve the evolution.
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看,科技是推展演化的方法。
19:06
It's a way to explore possibilities and opportunities and create more.
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它是个方法用来探索可能和机会,并创造更多。
19:12
And it's actually a way of playing the game, of playing all the games.
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它实际上是参与赛局、玩各种赛局的方法。
19:17
That's what technology wants.
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那就是科技要的。
19:19
And so when I think about what technology wants,
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因此,当我想到科技要的是什么,
19:22
I think that it has to do with the fact that every person here -- and I really believe this --
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我认为,它涉及这里的每个人,我深信:
19:27
every person here has an assignment. And your assignment is
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这里的每个人都有一项任务。你的任务就是
19:32
to spend your life discovering what your assignment is.
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究其一生找出你的任务是什么。
19:35
That recursive nature is the infinite game.
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那个递回的本质就是无限赛局。
19:38
And if you play that well, you'll have other people involved,
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如果你玩得好,你将有他人参与,
19:41
so even that game extends and continues even when you're gone.
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赛局会延长并持续,即使你已离开。
19:45
That is the infinite game. And what technology is
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那就是无限赛局。科技就是
19:48
is the medium in which we play that infinite game.
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我们参与无限赛局的中介。
19:51
And so I think that we should embrace technology
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因此我觉得我们应该拥抱科技
19:54
because it is an essential part of our journey
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因为它是我们找出自我的旅程中
19:57
in finding out who we are.
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至为关键的部分。
19:59
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
20:01
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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