Kevin Kelly: How technology evolves

85,094 views ・ 2007-01-12

TED


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譯者: Manlai YOU 審譯者: Tony Yet
00:25
I don't know about you, but I haven't quite figured out
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我不知你怎麼想,但我想不出
00:29
exactly what technology means in my life.
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科技對我的生命真正的意義為何。
00:32
I've spent the past year thinking about what it really should be about.
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我花了過去一年在想,那到底該怎樣。
00:39
Should I be pro-technology? Should I embrace it full arms?
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我要親科技嗎?我要全心擁抱它嗎?
00:42
Should I be wary? Like you, I'm very tempted by the latest thing.
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我要擔心嗎?和你們一樣,我嚮往新事物。
00:47
But at the other hand, a couple of years ago
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但另方面,幾年前
00:49
I gave up all of my possessions,
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我放棄我所有的物品,
00:52
sold all my technology -- except for a bicycle --
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賣掉我的科技用品,只留一輛腳踏車,
00:54
and rode across 3,000 miles on the U.S. back roads under the power of my one body,
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騎了三千哩的美國小路,用自身的力量,
01:00
fuelled mostly by Twinkies and junk food.
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大部分只吃海棉蛋糕和垃圾食物。
01:03
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:04
And I've since then tried to keep technology
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自此,我試著和科技保持距離,
01:06
at arm's length in many ways, so it doesn't master my life.
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不受它支配我的生活。
01:10
At the same time, I run a website on cool tools,
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同時,我卻管理一個酷品網站,
01:14
where I issue a daily obsession of the latest things in technology.
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每天暢談最新的科技物品。
01:18
So I'm still perplexed about what the true meaning of technology is
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因此,我仍感到困惑,科技的真義是什麼 -
01:24
as it relates to humanity, as it relates to nature,
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它與人的關係,與自然的關係,
01:28
as it relates to the spiritual.
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與心靈的關係。
01:31
And I'm not even sure we know what technology is.
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我甚至不確定,我們真的認識科技嗎?
01:35
And one definition of technology is that which is first recorded.
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有一個最早對科技的定義。
01:41
This is the first example of the modern use of technology that I can find.
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這是我找到的「科技」一詞現代用法的首例。
01:46
It was the suggested syllabus for dealing with
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它出現在一個教學大綱中,是關於
01:50
the Applied Arts and Science at Cambridge University in 1829.
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「應用藝術與科學」,在劍橋大學,1829年。
01:56
Before that, obviously, technology didn't exist. But obviously it did.
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那之前,顯然「科技」一詞並不存在。但顯然科技是存在的。
02:01
I like one of the definitions that Alan Kay has for technology.
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我喜歡 Alan Kay 對科技的一個定義。
02:05
He says technology is anything that was invented after you were born.
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他說:科技是你出生後才發明的任何東西。
02:09
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:10
So it sums up a lot of what we're talking about.
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但它總結了許多我們討論的事。
02:14
Danny Hillis actually has an update on that --
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Danny Hillis 事實上有個更新版本 -
02:16
he says technology is anything that doesn't quite work yet.
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他說:科技是還不怎麼能用的任何東西。
02:20
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:21
Which also, I think, gets into a little bit of our current idea.
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我認為,這也和我們現在的想法有關。
02:26
But I was interested in another definition of technology.
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但我卻對科技的另一個定義感興趣。
02:29
Something, again, that went back to something more fundamental.
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它再次回到更基本的某些事物。
02:33
Something that was deeper. And as I struggled to understand that,
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更深奧的事。當我盡力去理解它時,
02:39
I came up with a way of framing the question
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我得到一個方法去看待問題
02:42
that seemed to work for me in my investigations.
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使它看來符合我的探索需求。
02:44
And I'm, this morning, going to talk about this for the first time.
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今天上午我就首次來談它。
02:47
So this is a very rough attempt to think out loud.
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因此這是一種出聲想的粗略嘗試。
02:52
The question that I came up with was this question:
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我得到的問題就是這個問題,
02:56
what does technology want? And by that, I don't mean,
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科技要的是什麼?這裡的意思不是指
02:59
does it want chocolate or vanilla? By what it wants, I mean,
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它要巧克力或香草。我指的是:
03:04
what are its inherent trends and biases?
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它的固有趨勢與偏向如何?
03:06
What are its tendencies over time? One way to think about this is
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長此以往,它的趨勢如何?這樣來思考它:
03:11
thinking about biological organisms, which we've heard a lot about.
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想想生物組織體,我們聽到很多了。
03:15
And the trick that Richard Dawkins does, which is to say,
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理查德·道金斯的技巧是:
03:18
to look at them as simply as genes, as vehicles for genes.
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將它們看成只是基因,是基因載體。
03:22
So he's saying, what do genes want? The selfish gene.
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因此他說,基因要什麼?自私的基因。
03:25
And I'm applying a similar trick to say,
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我用相似的技巧說:
03:28
what if we looked at the universe in our culture
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如果我們透過科技眼光
03:31
through the eyes of technology? What does technology want?
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觀看我們文化中的宇宙,科技要的是什麼?
03:36
Obviously, this in an incomplete question,
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顯然,這是個不完整的問題,
03:38
just as looking at an organism as only a gene
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就像把生物體看成只是基因
03:40
is an incomplete way of looking at it.
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也是不完整的看法。
03:42
But it's still very, very productive. So I'm attempting to say,
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但這仍然很有建設性。因此我試著說,
03:46
if we take technology's view of the world, what does it want?
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如果我們採取科技的世界觀,它要的是什麼?
03:50
And I think once we ask that question
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我認為,一旦我們問這個問題
03:53
we have to go back, actually, to life. Because obviously,
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我們必須實際上回到生命。因為很明顯,
03:58
if we keep extending the origins of technology far back,
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如果我們遠遠推回科技的起源,
04:01
I think we come back to life at some point.
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我認為在某一點我們回到生命。
04:03
So that's where I want to begin my little exploration, is in life.
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因此,我要開始我的小小探索,是在生命。
04:06
And like you heard from the previous speakers,
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就如你聽到前幾個演講者,
04:09
we don't really know what life there is on Earth right now.
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我們不真正知道地球上現有的生命。
04:12
We have really no idea.
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我們真的毫無概念。
04:14
Craig Venter's tremendous and brilliant attempt
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克萊格·凡特的雄大抱負
04:18
to DNA sequence things in the ocean is great.
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要為海洋生物 DNA 定序是偉大的。
04:21
Brian Farrell's work is all part of this agenda to try
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Brian Farrell 的工作是其中一部分,
04:24
and actually discover all the species on Earth.
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試著實際發現地球上所有的物種。
04:26
And one of the things that we should do is just make a grid of the globe
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我們該做的一件事就是為地球畫格子
04:29
and randomly go and inspect all the places that the grid intersects,
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並隨機檢視格子的交叉點,
04:34
just to see what's on life. And if we did that
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看看那裡有什麼生命。如果我們使用
04:36
with our little Martian probe, which we have not done on Earth,
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火星探測儀,將它用在地球上,
04:39
we would begin to see some incredible species.
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我們將會看到難以置信的物種。
04:43
This is not on another planet. These are things
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這不是在另個星球。這些都是
04:45
that are hidden away on our planet.
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躱在我們星球的東西。
04:47
This is an ant that stores its colleagues' honey in its abdomen.
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這是一隻螞蟻,它將同伴的蜜放在肚子裡。
04:52
Each one of these organisms that we've described -- that you've seen
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這些生物體的每一個 - 你從詹姆斯等人
04:55
from Jamie and others, these magnificent things --
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看過的,這些偉大事物 -
04:58
what they're doing, each one of them,
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它們每一個在做的
05:00
is they're hacking the rules of life.
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都是在「修整」生命規則。
05:03
I can't think of a single general principle of biology
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我想不出單一的生物學通則
05:08
that does not have an exception somewhere by some organism.
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到處對任何生物體都沒有例外的。
05:12
Every single thing that we can think of --
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我們想得到的任何一件事 -
05:14
and if you heard Olivia's talk about the sexual habits,
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如果你聽過 Oliver 談性習慣,
05:17
you'll realize that there isn't anything we can say that's true for all life,
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你將知道,沒有任何一件事適用所有生命。
05:20
because every single one of them is hacking something about it.
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因為每一個都在修整它的某部分。
05:24
This is a solar-powered sea slug. It's a nudibranch
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這是太陽能海蛞蝓。它屬裸鰓亞目
05:28
that has incorporated chloroplast inside it to drive its energy.
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它結合葉綠體在體內當它的能源。
05:34
This is another version of that. This is a sea dragon,
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這是另外一種。這是海龍。
05:37
and the one on the bottom, the blue one, is a juvenile that has not yet
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那隻在底部,藍色的,是幼蟲,
05:43
swallowed the acid, has not yet taken in
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尚未吞進酸,也尚未食用
05:45
the brown-green algae pond scum into its body to give it energy.
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棕綠色的海藻浮渣到體內提供能源。
05:52
These are hacks, and if we looked at the general shape
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這些都是修整,如果我們看修整生命取向
05:57
of the approaches to hacking life there are, current consensus,
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的一般形式,依目前的共識,
06:01
six kingdoms. Six different broad approaches: the plants,
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共有六個界。六個廣泛的取向:
06:05
the animals, the fungi, the protests -- the little things -- the bacteria
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植物、動物、真菌、原生生物、
06:08
and the Archaea bacteria. The Archaeas.
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細菌、古菌。
06:11
Those are the general approaches to life. That's one way to look at life on Earth today.
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這是生命的一般取向,是看今日地球生命的一種方式。
06:17
But a more interesting way,
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但另一個較有趣的方式,
06:19
the current way to take the long view,
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拉長來看現在的方式,
06:22
is to look at it in an evolutionary perspective.
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是以演化的觀點來看它。
06:25
And here we have a view of evolution where rather than having evolution
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這裡我們有個演化觀,它不是線性時間的演化,
06:31
go over the linear time, we have it coming out from the center.
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我們將它從中心往外擴延。
06:34
So in the center is the most primitive, and this is a genealogical chart
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在中心是最原始的,這是地球所有生命的系譜。
06:38
of all life on earth. This is all the same six kingdoms.
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所有相同的六個界都看得到。
06:42
You see 4,000 representative species, and you can see where we are.
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四千個代表性物種,你看到我們在何處。
06:46
But what I like about this is it shows that
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我喜歡這個,因為它顯示
06:47
every living organism on Earth today is equally evolved.
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地球上每種生物體都是同等演化的。
06:53
Those fungi and bacteria are as highly evolved as humans.
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那些真菌和細菌和人類都是高度演化的。
06:57
They've been around just as long and gone through
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它們同樣久存,
06:59
just the same kind of trial and error to get here.
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並經歷相同的試煉而到達這裡。
07:03
But we see that each one of these is actually hacking,
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但我們看到,這些每個都實際上在修整,
07:08
and has a different way of finding out how to do life.
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且各有不同方式去求取生存。
07:10
And if we take the long-term trends of life, if we begin to say,
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如果我們看生命的長期趨勢,如果我們開始說,
07:14
what does evolution want? There's several things that we see.
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演化要的是什麼?我們看到若干事。
07:17
One of the things about evolution is that nowhere on Earth
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演化的一件事就是,
07:23
have we ever been where we don't find life.
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地球上無處找不到生命。
07:27
We find life at the bottom of every long-term,
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我們發現生命在每個長期、
07:31
long-distance drilling core into the center of rock
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長距離鑽探地心岩石
07:34
that we bring up -- and there's bacteria in the pores of that rock.
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所取出的核心 - 岩石孔隙中就有細菌。
07:38
And wherever life is, it never retreats. It's ubiquitous and it wants to be more.
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生命所在之處,它從不撤退。它無所不在,不斷增多。
07:42
More and more of the inert matter of the globe
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地球上越來越多的無生命物質
07:45
is being touched and animated by life.
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受到生命的刺激及活化。
07:48
The second thing is is we see diversity. We also see specialization.
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另一件我們看到的是多樣性。我們也看到特殊化。
07:52
We see the movement from a general-purpose cell
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我們看到的是由一般目的的細胞
07:55
to the more specific and specialized.
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移動到更特定、特殊化的。
07:59
And we see a drift towards complexity that's very intuitive.
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我們看到移向複雜,直覺可察。
08:03
And actually, we have current data that does show
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實際上,我們現有數據顯示
08:05
that there is an actual drift towards complexity over time.
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實際上長期來是在移向複雜。
08:09
And the last thing, I bring back this nudibranch.
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最後我再提一下裸鰓亞目。
08:11
One of the things we see about life is that it moves
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我們看到生命的一件事,即它由內部
08:14
from the inner to increasing sociability. And by that it means
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移向漸增的社會性。也就是
08:18
that there is more and more of life whose entire environment is other life.
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有越來越多的生命,其整體環境是其他生命。
08:22
Like those chloroplast cells --
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就像那些葉綠體細胞 -
08:24
they're completely surrounded by other life.
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它們全被其他生命所包圍。
08:25
They never touch the inner matter. There is more and more co-evolution.
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它們從不觸及內部物質。有更多的共同演化。
08:31
And so the general, long-term trends of evolution
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因此,演化的一般長期趨勢
08:34
are roughly these five: ubiquity, diversity, specialization,
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大約有五個:普遍、多樣、特殊、
08:38
complexity and socialization. Now, I took that and said,
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複雜、及社群。我採取此一觀點,
08:43
OK, what are the long-term trends in technology?
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那麼,科技的長期趨勢如何?
08:48
And again, my question is, what does technology want?
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再次我問:科技要的是什麼?
08:52
And so, remarkably, I discovered
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因此,顯然,我發現了
08:55
that there's also a drift toward specialization.
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它也是移向特殊化。
08:58
That we see there's a general hammer,
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這裡我們看到普通的鎚子,
09:01
and hammers become more and more specific over time.
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鎚子隨著時間越來越特殊化。
09:04
There's obviously diversity. Huge numbers of things.
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顯然有多樣性。許許多多的物品。
09:09
This is all the contents of a Japanese home.
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這是日本家庭的所有東西。
09:11
I actually had my daughter -- gave her a tally counter,
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我要我女兒 - 送她一個計數器,
09:14
and I gave her an assignment last summer to go around
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去年夏天我要她四處看看
09:16
and count the number of species of technology in our household.
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算算我們家中有多少科技物種。
09:20
And it came up with 6,000 different species of products.
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結果有六千個產品種類。
09:23
I did some research and found out that the King of England, Henry VIII,
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我做過研究,發現英格蘭王享利八世
09:26
had only about 7,000 items in his household.
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只有大約七千件物品在他家中。
09:29
And he was the King of England,
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而他是英格蘭王,
09:30
and that was the entire wealth of England at the time.
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那是當時英格蘭的全部財富了。
09:32
So we're seeing huge numbers of diversity in the kinds of things.
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因此我們看到大量的物品多樣性。
09:37
This is a scene from Star Wars where the 3PO comes out
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這是星際戰爭的一景,3PO 出現了
09:41
and he sees machines making machines. How depraved!
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他看到了機器在製作機器。真敗壞呀!
09:44
Well, this is actually what we're headed towards: world machines.
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嗯,這正是我們的走向:世界機器
09:48
And the technology is only being thrown out by other technologies.
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科技只是由其他科技發展出來。
09:51
Most machines will only ever be in contact with other technology
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大部分機器將只和其他科技打交道
09:54
and not non-technology, or even life.
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而不管非科技,甚至生命。
09:57
And thirdly, the idea that machines are becoming biological and complex
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第三,機器生物化、複雜化的想法
10:00
is at this point a cliche. And I'm happy to say,
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已是陳腔濫調。而我很高興地說,
10:04
I was partly responsible for that cliche
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我要為那個陳腔濫調負部分責任:
10:06
that machines are becoming biological, but that's pretty evident.
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機器生物化了,那很明顯。
10:09
So the major trends in technology evolution actually
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因此科技演化的主要趨勢,實際上
10:15
are the same as in biological evolution. The same drives that we see
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就像生物演化。我們看到相同的趨勢
10:20
towards ubiquity, towards diversity, towards socialization,
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走向普遍、多樣、社群、
10:23
towards complexity. That is maybe not a big surprise
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複雜。這或許不是大驚奇
10:27
because if we map out, say, the evolution of armor,
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因為如果我們圖示,舉例說:盔甲的演化,
10:32
you can actually follow a sort of an evolutionary-type cladistic tree.
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你可以實際上跟隨一種演化式的血緣族譜。
10:36
I suggest that, in fact, technology is the seventh kingdom of life.
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我認為,事實上科技是生命的第七界。
10:41
That its operations and how it works is so similar
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它的運作及功能都如此相似
10:45
that we can think of it as the seventh kingdom.
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我們可以將它當成第七界。
10:49
And so it would be sort of approximately up there,
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因此它大略就在上方,
10:52
coming out of the animal kingdom. And if we were to do that,
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出自於動物界。如果這麼做,
10:58
we would find out -- we could actually approach technology in this way.
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我們將發現 - 我們實質上可以這樣面對科技。
11:01
This is Niles Eldredge. He was the co-developer with Stephen Jay Gould
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這是尼爾斯·艾崔奇,他和史蒂芬·古爾德一起發展
11:06
of the theory of punctuated equilibrium.
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間斷平衡理論。
11:08
But as a sideline, he happens to collect cornets.
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附帶地,他也收藏小銅喇叭。
11:11
He has one of the world's largest collections -- about 500 of them.
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他有著世界上最大的收藏 - 大約有 500 只。
11:15
And he has decided to treat them as if they were trilobites, or snails,
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他決定把它們當成旋螺或蝸牛,
11:18
and to do a morphological analysis,
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進行形態分析,
11:20
and try to derive their genealogical history over time.
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試著導出它們在時間上的系譜史。
11:24
This is his chart, which is not quite published yet.
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這是他得到的圖表,還沒完全公開。
11:26
But the most interesting aspect about this
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但這最有趣的面向是
11:29
is that if you look at those red lines at the bottom,
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如果你看那些底下的紅線,
11:32
those indicate basically a parentage of a type of cornet
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它基本上表示某種小銅喇叭的上一代
11:39
that was no longer made. That does not happen in biology.
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現在已沒人製造了。生物學上不是這樣。
11:43
When something is extinct, you can't have it as your parent.
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當某物滅絕後,你無法以它為上一代。
11:46
But that does happen in technology. And it turns out
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但在科技它會發生。結果呢
11:49
that that's so distinctive that you can actually look at this tree,
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它非常獨特,你可以看這個系譜,
11:53
and you can actually use it to determine
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可以用它來確定
11:56
that this is a technological system versus a biological system.
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這是科技系統而非生物系統。
12:00
In fact, this idea of resurrecting the whole idea is so important
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事實上,觀念復活的想法是非常重要的,
12:04
that I began to think about what happens with old technology.
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因而,我開始思考舊的科技怎麼了。
12:08
And it turns out that, in fact, technologies don't die.
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結果呢,事實上科技不會死。
12:13
So I suggested this to an historian of science, and he said,
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我向一位科學史學家提起,他說:
12:15
"Well, what about, you know, come on, what about steam cars?
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「嗯,那麼蒸汽車還在嗎?
12:20
They're not around anymore." Well actually, they are.
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它們已消失了。」而事實上,它們還在。
12:24
In fact, they're so around that you can buy new parts for a Stanley steam automobile.
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它們不但在,你還能買到 Stanley 蒸汽車的新零件。
12:31
And this is a website of a guy who's selling brand new parts
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這個網站有賣全新的零件
12:34
for the Stanley automobile. And the thing that I liked
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供應 Stanley 汽車之用。我很欣賞
12:38
is sort of this one-click, add-to-your-cart button --
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它也有點擊選貨進購物車的按鍵 -
12:41
(Laughter) --
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(笑聲)
12:42
for buying steam valves. I mean, it was just -- it was really there.
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可以買蒸汽閥。我是說,真的有人在賣。
12:47
And so, I began to think about, well, maybe that's just a random sample.
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因此,我開始想,也許這只是個特例。
12:52
Maybe I should do this sort of in a more conservative way.
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也許我該用比較保守的方式去查看。
12:55
So I took the great big 1895 Montgomery Ward's catalog
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我拿大部頭的 1895年 Montgomery Ward 型錄
13:00
and I randomly went through it. And I took a page -- not quite a random page --
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隨機翻翻,我選了一頁 - 不怎麼隨機 -
13:03
I took a page that was actually more difficult than others
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我選的這樣實際上是比較難的
13:06
because lots of the pages are filled with things
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因為許多頁面中的東西
13:08
that are still being made. But I took this page
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都還有在製造。但我選了這一頁
13:11
and I said, how many of these things are still being made?
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我說:這些東西有多少還在製造?
13:15
And not antiques. I want to know how many of these things are still in production.
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而不是古董。我要知道這些東西有多少還在製造。
13:20
And the answer is: all of them.
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答案是:全部。
13:23
All of them are still being produced. So you've got corn shellers.
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它們都還在製造。因此你能買到玉米脫殼機。
13:30
I don't know who needs a corn sheller.
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我不知道誰需要玉米脫殼機。
13:32
Be it corn shellers -- you've got ploughs; you've got fan mills;
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就是玉米脫殼機 - 你還可買到犁、風車磨,
13:36
all these things -- and these are not, again, antiques. These are --
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所有這些東西都不是古董。這些是 -
13:39
you can order these. You can go to the web and you can buy them now,
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你可以訂購。你可以上網,現在就去買,
13:42
brand-new made. So in a certain sense, technologies don't die.
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全新製造的。因此,某種觀點而言,科技不死。
13:47
In fact, you can buy, for 50 bucks, a stone-age knife
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事實上,你能花 50 美元買到石器時代的刀
13:54
made exactly the same way that they were made 10,000 years ago.
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以一萬年前完全一樣的方式做成的。
13:58
It's short, bone handle, 50 bucks. And in fact,
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它有短的骨柄,50 美元。而事實上,
14:02
what's important is that this information actually never died out.
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重要的是這項資訊從未消逝。
14:05
It's not just that it was resurrected. It's continued all along.
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它不只是復活。它一直存在著。
14:07
And in Papua New Guinea, they were making stone axes
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而在巴布亞新幾亞,他們做石斧
14:10
until two decades ago, just as a course of practical matters.
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直到二十年前,它還是件實用的事。
14:17
Even when we try to get rid of a technology, it's actually very hard.
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甚至當我們試圖放棄一項科技,那實在很難。
14:21
So we've all heard about the Amish giving up cars.
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我們都聽過阿米希人放棄車子。
14:25
We've heard about the Japanese giving up guns.
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我們也聽過日本人放棄槍砲。
14:27
We've heard about this and that. But I actually went back and
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我們聽過這個、那個。但我回頭去找
14:29
took what I could find, the examples in history
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找到歷史實例
14:32
where there have been prohibitions against technology,
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曾經禁制過科技的實例,
14:35
and then I tried to find out when they came back in,
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我試著找出何時它們又回頭了,
14:38
because they always came back in. And it turns out that the time,
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因為它們總是回頭。結果是:時間
14:41
the duration of when they were outlawed and prohibited,
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受禁止和限制的時期
14:43
is decreasing over time. And that basically, you can delay technology,
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隨著時間而減少。那基本上只是延遲了科技,
14:48
but you can't kill it. So this makes sense, because in a certain sense
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而無法棄絕它。這是有意義的。就某種意義而言,
14:51
what culture is, is the accumulation of ideas.
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所謂文化就是觀念的累積。
14:56
That's what it's for. It's so that ideas don't die out.
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其目的是要使觀念生生不息。
14:59
And when we take that, we take this idea of what culture is doing
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當我們採取,我們採取這個文化作用的觀念
15:05
and add it to what the long-term trajectory -- again, in life's evolution --
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並將它加到生命演化的長程軌道中
15:11
we find that each case -- each of the major transitions in life --
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我們發現每次 - 生命的每次主要轉換 -
15:14
what they're really about is accelerating and changing
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它們真正是在加速與改變
15:17
the way in which evolution happens.
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演化發生的方式。
15:20
They're actually changing the way in which ideas are generated.
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它們實際上改變著觀念產生的方式。
15:23
So all these steps in evolution are increasing, basically,
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因此,演化的這些步驟基本上都是在
15:27
the evolution of evolvability.
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增加演化的可演化性。
15:29
So what's happening over time in life is
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因此,生命在時間軸上發生的是
15:31
that the ways in which you generate these new ideas, these new hacks,
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產生新觀念、新俢整的方式
15:34
are increasing. And the real tricks are ways
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一直在增加。真正的技巧是
15:38
in which you kind of explore the way of exploring.
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你去探索「探索方式」的方式。
15:41
And then what we see in the singularity,
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而我們在這獨特性中看到的
15:43
that prophesized by Kurzweil and others --
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由庫茨魏爾和其他人所預言的 -
15:46
his idea that technology is accelerating evolution.
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他認為的科技正在加速演化。
15:50
It's accelerating the way in which we search for ideas.
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它正在加速我們尋找觀念的方式。
15:53
So if you have life hacking --
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因此,如果你有生命修整 -
15:56
life means hacking, the game of survival --
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生命就是修整,生存的競賽 -
15:58
then evolution is a way to extend the game by changing the rules of the game.
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那麼,演化就是改變競賽規則來延長賽局的方式。
16:02
And what technology is really about is better ways to evolve.
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而科技真正涉及的,是較好的演化方式。
16:06
That is what we call an "infinite game."
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那就是我們所說的無限賽局,
16:09
That's the definition of "infinite game." A finite game is play to win,
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是無限賽局的定義。有限賽局是要贏,
16:12
and an infinite game is played to keep playing.
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無限賽局是要賽個不停。
16:15
And I believe that technology is actually a cosmic force.
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我相信科技實際上是一種宇宙力。
16:20
The origins of technology was not in 1829,
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科技的起源不是在 1829 年,
16:23
but was actually at the beginning of the Big Bang,
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實際上是在「大爆炸」的開始,
16:26
and at that moment the entire huge billions of stars in the universe
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在宇宙中巨量億萬星球被壓縮的時刻。
16:30
were compressed. The entire universe was compressed into a little quantum dot,
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整個宇宙被壓縮為一個小量子點,
16:34
and it was so tight in there, there was no room for any difference at all.
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它是那麼緊,緊得不可能有任何差別。
16:37
That's the definition. There was no temperature.
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這就是定義。沒有溫度。
16:39
There was no difference whatsoever. And at the Big Bang,
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沒有任何差別。而在「大爆炸」,
16:42
what it expanded was the potential for difference.
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擴散開的是差別的潛能。
16:45
So as it expands and as things expand what we have
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因此,當它擴散,當事物擴散開來,
16:48
is the potential for differences, diversity, options, choices,
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我們即可能有差別、多樣、替換、選擇、
16:53
opportunities, possibilities and freedoms.
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機會、可能、和自由。
16:55
Those are all basically the same thing.
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這些基本上是相同的事。
16:57
And those are the things that technology brings us.
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那些就是科技帶給我們的事。
17:01
That's what technology is bringing us: choices, possibilities, freedoms.
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科技帶給我們:選擇、可能、自由。
17:05
That's what it's about. It's this expansion of room to make differences.
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它就是關於這個,就是擴大造成差別。
17:09
And so a hammer, when we grab a hammer, that's what we're grabbing.
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因此,當我們握鐡鎚,我們握的是鐡鎚。
17:13
And that's why we continue to grab technology --
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因而我們繼續握住科技 -
17:16
because we want those things. Those things are good.
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因為我們要這些事物。這些事物是好的。
17:18
Differences, freedom, choices, possibilities.
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差別、自由、選擇、可能。
17:22
And each time we make a new opportunity place,
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每次我們製造一個新機會點,
17:24
we're allowing a platform to make new ones.
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我們即容許一個平台去製造更多新的。
17:28
And I think it's really important. Because if you can imagine
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我認為這真的很重要。因為如果你能想像
17:31
Mozart before the technology of the piano was invented --
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莫札特生在鋼琴科技發明之前,
17:34
what a loss to society there would be.
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那會是社會的多大損失。
17:36
Imagine Van Gogh being born
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想像梵谷生在
17:38
before the technologies of cheap oil paints.
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廉價油彩的科技之前。
17:41
Imagine Hitchcock before the technologies of film.
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想像希區考克在電影科技之前。
17:45
Somewhere, today, there are millions of young children being born
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今天某處有好幾百萬小孩出生
17:50
whose technology of self-expression has not yet been invented.
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他們自我表達的科技尚未發明。
17:55
We have a moral obligation to invent technology
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我們有發明科技的道德義務
17:58
so that every person on the globe has the potential
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使地球上每個人有潛能去
18:00
to realize their true difference.
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實現他們的真正差別。
18:03
We want a trillion zillion species of one individuals.
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我們要幾兆、幾京物種的單一個體。
18:06
That's what technology really wants.
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那就是科技真正要的。
18:09
I'm going to skip through some of the objections
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我要跳過一些反對意見
18:11
because I don't have answers to why there's deforestation.
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因為我不知道為何有森林濫伐。
18:15
I don't have an answer to the fact that there seem to be
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我也不知道事實上有著 - 看來是
18:18
bad technologies. I don't have an answer to
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壞的科技。我也不知道
18:20
how this impacts on our dignity, other than to suggest that
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這如何衝擊我們的尊嚴,我只是提議
18:24
maybe the seventh kingdom, because it's so close to what life is about,
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這個第七界,因為它非常接近生命形式,
18:30
maybe we can bring it back and have it help us monitor life.
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也許我們可以帶回它,要它幫我們監測生命。
18:33
Maybe in some ways
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或許以某些方式
18:35
the fact that what we're trying to do with technology is find a good home for it.
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事實上我們試著搞定科技,是替它找個家。
18:40
It's a terrible thing to spray DDT on cotton fields,
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噴灑 DDT 在棉花田是可怕的事,
18:43
but it's a really good thing to use
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但好的一面是用它來
18:45
to eliminate millions of cases of death due to malaria in a small village.
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消滅小村莊瘧疾導致的數百萬死亡案例。
18:49
Our humanity is actually defined by technology.
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人道實際上是由科技定義的。
18:52
All the things that we think that we really like about humanity
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所有我們認為我們喜歡的人道事項
18:55
is being driven by technology. This is the infinite game.
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都是由科技驅導的。這就是無限賽局。
19:00
That's what we're talking about.
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我們談的就是這個。
19:02
You see, technology is a way to evolve the evolution.
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看,科技是推展演化的方法。
19:06
It's a way to explore possibilities and opportunities and create more.
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它是個方法用來探索可能和機會,並創造更多。
19:12
And it's actually a way of playing the game, of playing all the games.
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它實際上是參與賽局、玩各種賽局的方法。
19:17
That's what technology wants.
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那就是科技要的。
19:19
And so when I think about what technology wants,
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因此,當我想到科技要的是什麼,
19:22
I think that it has to do with the fact that every person here -- and I really believe this --
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我認為,它涉及這裡的每個人,我深信:
19:27
every person here has an assignment. And your assignment is
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這裡的每個人都有一項任務。你的任務就是
19:32
to spend your life discovering what your assignment is.
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究其一生找出你的任務是什麼。
19:35
That recursive nature is the infinite game.
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那個遞回的本質就是無限賽局。
19:38
And if you play that well, you'll have other people involved,
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如果你玩得好,你將有他人參與,
19:41
so even that game extends and continues even when you're gone.
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賽局會延長並持續,即使你已離開。
19:45
That is the infinite game. And what technology is
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那就是無限賽局。科技就是
19:48
is the medium in which we play that infinite game.
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我們玩無限賽局的中介。
19:51
And so I think that we should embrace technology
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因此,我認為我們該接納科技
19:54
because it is an essential part of our journey
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因為它是我們找出自我的旅程中,
19:57
in finding out who we are.
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至為關鍵的部分。
19:59
Thank you.
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謝謝大家。
20:01
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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