Amory Lovins: A 40-year plan for energy

Translator: Jenny Zurawell Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻译人员: Jia Zeng 校对人员: Yuguo Zhang

America's public energy conversation

美国的公众能源的讨论

boils down to this question:

可以归结为这个问题

Would you rather die of A) oil wars,

你比较倾向于哪种死法：A)石油战争

or B) climate change,

B) 气候变化

or C) nuclear holocaust,

C) 核战浩劫

or D) all of the above?

D) 以上所有

Oh, I missed one: or E) none of the above?

哦，我还忘了一个 E) 以上都不要?

That's the one we're not normally offered.

正常情况下没有这个选项

What if we could make energy do our work

如果我们可以利用能源，帮助我们工作

without working our undoing?

而又不会招致灭亡，将有多好?

Could we have fuel without fear?

我们能不能安心地使用燃料?

Could we reinvent fire?

我们能不能重燃火源(Reinvent fire是艾默里·罗文斯的关于能源运用方式改造的新书)?

You see, fire made us human;

大家知道，用火造就了人类

fossil fuels made us modern.

化石燃料引领我们变得现代化

But now we need a new fire

但现在我们需要一种新的火

that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.

一种能让我们安全，有保障，健康而且可持续的火

Let's see how.

让我们来看看要怎么做

Four-fifths of the world's energy

世界能源的五分之四

still comes from burning each year

仍然来自于每年燃烧

four cubic miles of the rotted remains

四平方英里原始沼泽

of primeval swamp goo.

遗留的腐化物质

Those fossil fuels

化石燃料

have built our civilization.

造就了我们的文明

They've created our wealth.

创造了我们的财富

They've enriched the lives of billions.

丰富了数十亿人的生活

But they also have rising costs

但它们也在导致

to our security, economy, health and environment

我们安全、经济、健康和环境的成本上升

that are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.

这些成本正逐渐侵蚀效益，虽然现在仍可能是利大于弊

So we need a new fire.

所以我们需要一种新的火

And switching from the old fire to the new fire

从旧的火转换为新的火

means changing two big stories about oil and electricity,

意味着两大改变：石油与电力

each of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.

它们都会向空气排放五分之二的化石碳

But they're really quite distinct.

但两者间显著差别

Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil --

只有不到1%的电力来自于石油能源

although almost half is made from coal.

而将近一半的电力来自于燃煤

Their uses are quite concentrated.

两者用途又都非常集中

Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.

四分之三的石油被用于交通运输

Three-fourths of our electricity powers buildings.

四分之三的电力被用于建筑物供电

And the rest of both runs factories.

两者的剩下部分被用于工厂运作

So very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories

因此高效的车辆，建筑物与工厂

save oil and coal,

可以节省石油和煤

and also natural gas that can displace both of them.

也能省下可以替代石油和煤的天然气

But today's energy system is not just inefficient,

但是当今的能源系统不仅效率低下

it is also disconnected,

而且零散

aging, dirty and insecure.

老旧，肮脏，还不安全

So it needs refurbishment.

因此能源系统需要改头换面

By 2050 though, it could become efficient,

到2050年，它会变得更有效率

connected and distributed

更具系统，被妥善运用

with elegantly frugal

因为简约节能的

autos, factories and buildings

汽车、工厂以及建筑物

all relying on a modern, secure

都依赖于现代、安全

and resilient electricity system.

并且灵活的电力系统

We can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050

到2050年，我们将不再依赖石油和煤

and use one-third less natural gas

并减少三分之一的天然气使用量

while switching to efficient use

与此同时我们将有效地使用能源

and renewable supply.

与可再生资源

This could cost, by 2050,

到2050年，这一切开销

five trillion dollars less in net present value,

将比现在净价值少5万亿美元

that is expressed as a lump sum today,

这里是指总价

than business as usual --

是与照常营运相比——

assuming that carbon emissions

假设碳排放

and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero --

以及所有其他隐性或外部成本为零

a conservatively low estimate.

这只是保守的估计

Yet this cheaper energy system

但是这个更低耗的能源系统

could support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy

能够支持相当于现量158%的美国经济

all without needing oil or coal,

完全不需要石油或煤

or for that matter nuclear energy.

或是核能

Moreover, this transition needs no new inventions

此外，这个转变不需要新发明

and no acts of Congress

也不需要国会的法令

and no new federal taxes, mandate subsidies or laws

不需要新的联邦税种，强制补助或立法

and running Washington gridlock.

或是使美国政府陷入困境

Let me say that again.

让我重申一次

I'm going to tell you how to get the United States

我将告诉你怎样让美国

completely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper

完全摆脱石油或煤，减少5万亿美元的开销

with no act of Congress

而且不需要

led by business for profit.

以盈利组织为主导的国会制订新法

In other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions --

换句话说，我们将利用我们最有效的组织 民营企业

private enterprise co-evolving with civil society

与公民社会共同进步

and sped by military innovation

并通过军队改革，来加速这一进程

to go around our least effective institutions.

这样才能绕过最低效的机构

And whether you care most

不论你最关心的是

about profits and jobs and competitive advantage

利润、工作和竞争优势

or national security, or environmental stewardship

还是国家安全、环境管理

and climate protection and public health,

还是气候保护和公众健康

reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.

重新发明能源使用方式，合理也有赚头

General Eisenhower reputedly said

据说艾森豪威尔将军曾说过

that enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem

扩大一个难题的范围

makes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies.

就能涵盖更多的选择和协同作用，从而解决问题

So in reinventing fire,

因此在重新发明能源使用方式时

we integrated all four sectors that use energy --

我们整合耗能的全部四个领域——

transportation, buildings, industry and electricity --

交通，建筑，工业与电力——

and we integrated four kinds of innovation,

也整合了四种创新

not just technology and policy,

不只是科技与政策

but also design and business strategy.

也包括设计和商业策略

Those combinations yield

这些组合产生的效益

very much more than the sum of the parts,

远高于各项的总和

especially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.

特别是合并后，将创造颠覆性的商业机遇

Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,

石油每天花去我们20亿美元

plus another four billion dollars a day

再加上另外的

in hidden economic and military costs,

隐性经济与军费开支花去的40亿美元

raising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP.

石油总消费超过GDP(国内生产总值)的六分之一

Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.

既然用于交通工具的燃料的五分之三都花在汽车上

So let's start by making autos oil free.

让我们从汽车免费用油开始着手

Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car

驱动一辆普通汽车所需能源的三分之二

is caused by its weight.

是由车子的重量贡献的

And every unit of energy you save at the wheels,

通过减轻车子重量或减少制动阻力

by taking out weight or drag,

在这上面每节约的一单位能量

saves seven units in the tank,

就能节约油箱中七单位的能量

because you don't have to waste six units

因为你已不需要多浪费六单位能源

getting the energy to the wheels.

将能量传输到车轮上

Unfortunately, over the past quarter century,

但不幸的是，在过去的25年中

epidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars

肥胖问题的流行，让我们2吨的钢制车变得更重

gain weight twice as fast as we have.

而且增加的速度是以前的两倍

But today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials,

但在当今，超轻、超强度的材料

like carbon fiber composites,

比如碳纤维复合材料

can make dramatic weight savings snowball

能让显著减轻车子重量

and can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.

并使汽车的制造变得更简单，价格更便宜

Lighter and more slippery autos

车子越轻，开动阻力越小

need less force to move them,

驱动所需的动力就越少

so their engines get smaller.

引擎就能越小

Indeed, that sort of vehicle fitness

实际上，车辆的这种轻便性

then makes electric propulsion affordable

使得电力驱力变得实惠

because the batteries or fuel cells

因为电力电池或燃料电池

also get smaller and lighter and cheaper.

也会变得更小、更轻、更便宜

So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today,

所以汽车的定价最终将回落到目前定价相近水平

while the driving cost, even from the start,

而驾驶成本，甚至是从一开始开始算起

is very much lower.

也低了很多

So these innovations together can transform automakers

所以说这些创新组合在一起，就能让汽车制造商

from wringing tiny savings

使他们从在维多利亚时代的引擎与邮票印章技术上

out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies

钻营微小的节约

to the steeply falling costs

转到由三项紧密联系相互强化的创新

of three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other --

带来的成本的巨幅下降——

namely ultralight materials, making them into structures

也就是说运用超轻的材料，将它们用于建设

and electric propulsion.

与电力驱动系统

The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster

通过实行短期的退税方案

with temporary feebates,

就能增加销量，更快地降低价格

that is rebates for efficient new autos

这种退税方，是针对高效能的新型汽车的退款

paid for by fees on inefficient ones.

并由低效汽车的生产商给付

And just in the first two years

而仅仅在最初的两年内

the biggest of Europe's five feebate programs

欧洲五个费用退还计划中最大的一个

has tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency.

就将汽车能源效率改进的速度提高了三倍

The resulting shift to electric autos

由此带来的向电动汽车的转变

is going to be as game-changing

将像由打字机向使用电脑的转变

as shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers.

一样改变游戏规则

Of course, computers and electronics

不必多言，电脑与电子产品

are now America's biggest industry,

是当今美国最大的产业

while typewriter makers have vanished.

打字机制造商却已消失得无影无踪

So vehicle fitness

因此交通工具的轻便性

opens a new automotive competitive strategy

启动了新型汽车业竞争战略

that can double the oil savings over the next 40 years,

一种能够使未来40年内汽车省油率翻倍

but then also make electrification affordable,

同时让电动车变得平价

and that displaces the rest of the oil.

还能让电动车取代汽油车的战略

America could lead this next automotive revolution.

美国能够引领下一轮汽车业革命

Currently the leader is Germany.

当前起主导作用的是德国

Last year, Volkswagen announced

去年，大众汽车宣布

that by next year they'll be producing

今天他们将生产出

this carbon fiber plugin hybrid

具备碳纤维插件的混合动力车

getting 230 miles a gallon.

行驶230英里耗油1加仑(约合100公里/升)

Also last year, BMW announced

同样在去年，宝马公司宣布生产

this carbon fiber electric car,

这种碳纤维电动车

they said that its carbon fiber is paid for

他们宣称使用碳纤维的成本

by needing fewer batteries.

可以由相应减少的电池需求来平衡

And they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker."

他们还说，“我们不想成为打字机制造商。”

Audi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.

奥迪公司宣称将用一年时间击败这两个对手

Seven years ago, an even faster and cheaper

7年前，一种更快更低价的

American manufacturing technology

美国式制造技术

was used to make this little carbon fiber test part,

被用于制造这个小小的碳纤维试用零件

which doubles as a carbon cap.

使得碳排放上限翻了一番

(Laughter)

(笑声)

In one minute -- and you can tell from the sound

在一分钟之内——你就能从听出

how immensely stiff and strong it is.

它有多么坚硬牢固

Don't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium.

它掉到地上也没事，因为它比钛还要坚硬

Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer

汤姆弗里德曼曾拿大锤用尽全力敲它

without even scuffing it.

它却毫发无损

But such manufacturing techniques

但这样的制造技术

can scale to automotive speed and cost

如果能结合流体设计

with aerospace performance.

就能影响汽车的速度和成本

They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.

它们能节省五分之四的汽车制造成本

They can save lives

它们能保障生命安全

because this stuff can absorb

因为它能吸收的撞击力

up to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel.

是每磅钢铁所能吸收的碰撞能(撞击产生的能量)的12倍

If we made all of our autos this way,

如果我们用这种方法制造所有的汽车

it would save oil equivalent to finding

省下的石油相当于

one and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC,

找到一个半的沙特阿拉伯，或者半个OPEC(石油输出国家组织)

by drilling in the Detroit formation, a very prospective play.

如果从底特律钻井开始着手，就很有可能成功

And all those mega-barrels under Detroit

而所有那些底特律地下的蕴含的巨大油桶

cost an average of 18 bucks a barrel.

每桶都要18美元

They are all-American, carbon-free

它们全为美国生产，属于无碳排放

and inexhaustible.

取之不尽，用之不竭

The same physics and the same business logic

同样的道理，同样的商业逻辑

also apply to big vehicles.

也适用于大型车辆

In the five years ending with 2010,

2005到2010年

Walmart saved 60 percent of the fuel per ton-mile

沃尔玛的大批重型卡车队

in its giant fleet of heavy trucks

减少了60%的每英里耗油量

through better logistics and design.

这归功于它们较好的物流和规划

But just the technological savings in heavy trucks

但仅在重型卡车技术上的节约

can get to two-thirds.

就占了三分之二

And combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes,

如果我们结合三到五倍能源效率的飞机

now on the drawing board,

正在被设计的飞机

can save close to a trillion dollars.

就省下接近一万亿美元

Also today's military revolution in energy efficiency

如今军队在能源效率上的改革

is going to speed up all of these civilian advances

也将促进所有这些民用的技术的发展

in much the same way that military R&D

就像是军方研发

has given us the Internet, the Global Positioning System

给我们带来互联网、全球定位系统

and the jet engine and microchip industries.

喷气机引擎和微芯片产业

As we design and build vehicles better,

随着我们设计、制造更好的汽车

we can also use them smarter

我们也能更聪明地使用它们

by harnessing four powerful techniques

通过运用联合四种强力的技术

for eliminating needless driving.

来减少驾驶时无谓的损耗

Instead of just seeing the travel grow,

与其只看到出游时里程的增长

we can use innovative pricing,

我们还能用创新的定价方式

charging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.

按英里数给道路基建收费，而不是耗油量

We can use some smart IT to enhance transit

我们可以用一些巧妙的IT技术来优化这个过程

and enable car sharing and ride sharing.

让拼车变得可行

We can allow smart and lucrative growth models

我们可以用聪明且有利可图的增长模型

that help people already be near where they want to be,

来帮助已经接近目标的人们

so they don't need to go somewhere else.

这样他们就不会走上歧路

And we can use smart IT

而且我们可以用智慧的IT技术

to make traffic free-flowing.

保持交通顺畅

Together, those things can give us the same or better access

所有这些结合起来，能让我们更接近目标

with 46 to 84 percent less driving,

省下46-84%的驾驶消耗

saving another 0.4 trillion dollars,

4千亿美元的开销

plus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.

还有3亿美元，是通过有效使用卡车省下的成本

So 40 years hence, when you add it all up,

把所有金额相加，我们将看到40年后

a far more mobile U.S. economy

一个更灵动的美国汽车经济

can use no oil.

将完全摆脱石油

Saving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks

每桶油能省下25美元

rather than buying them for over a hundred,

而不再花去一百多元钱

adds up to a $4 trillion net saving

忽略隐性成本的话

counting all the hidden costs at zero.

净节约额将达到四万亿美元

So to get mobility without oil,

所以为了让交通业摆脱对石油的依赖

to phase out the oil,

终结交通的石油时代

we can get efficient and then switch fuels.

我们需要增加效率，并改变能耗方式

Those 125 to 240 mile-per-gallon-equivalent autos

那些耗油量为每加仑125到240英里的汽车

can use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells,

可以混合使用氢燃料电池

electricity and advanced biofuels.

电力电池和先进的生物燃料

The trucks and planes can realistically use

卡车和飞机实际上可以用

hydrogen or advanced biofuels.

氢燃料或生物燃料

The trucks could even use natural gas.

卡车甚至可以用天然气

But no vehicles will need oil.

所有的交通工具都将摆脱对石油的依赖

And the most biofuel we might need,

而我们所需的

just three million barrels a day,

每天不会超过三百万桶的生物燃料

can be made two-thirds from waste

三分之二来自废物回收处理

without displacing any cropland

它们不需要占用农田

and without harming soil or climate.

对土壤和气候也无害

Our team speeds up these kinds of oil savings

我们的团队正在加速推行这些省油模式

by what we call "institutional acupuncture."

我们叫它“体制针灸”

We figure out where the business logic

我们找到那些商业逻辑

is congested and not flowing properly,

拥堵不畅的地方

we stick little needles in it to get it flowing,

在这些地方插入细针帮助疏通

working with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.

我们和福特汽车、沃尔玛和五角大楼等都有合作

And the long transition is already well under way.

长期的转换过程已经开始

In fact, three years ago mainstream analysts were starting to see peak oil,

事实上，三年前，主流分析师已经注意到

not in supply, but in demand.

石油峰值，不在供应面，而将在需求面出现

And Deutsche Bank even said world oil use could peak around 2016.

德意志银行甚至宣称全球石油使用量将在2016年达到顶峰

In other words, oil is getting uncompetitive even at low prices

换句话说，在石油还没有贵到买不起时

before it becomes unavailable even at high prices.

它已经使去竞争力了

But the electrified vehicles

但是电动汽车

don't need to burden the electricity grid.

并不会对电网造成负担

Rather, when smart autos exchange electricity and information

当这些新型汽车通过装配有智能电网的建筑物

through smart buildings with smart grids,

来交换电力和资讯时

they're adding to the grid valuable flexibility and storage

它们为电网增加了宝贵的弹性和存储能力

that help the grid integrate

从而帮助电网整合运用

varying solar and wind power.

不断变化的太阳能和风能

So the electrified autos

所以这些电动汽车

make the auto and electricity problems

整合并解决了交通和电力的问题

easier to solve together than separately.

这样比分别处理更容易

And they also converge the oil story

电动汽车还整合了

with our second big story,

石油和电力的使用模式

saving electricity and then making it differently.

节省电力，并使它全面改观

And those twin revolutions in electricity

再生能源和电动汽车的改革

will bring to that sector

为电力系统带来的改造

more numerous and profound and diverse disruptions

比它们对其它系统带来的影响

than any other sector,

更多，更深远，更广泛

because we've got 21st century technology and speed colliding head-on

其原因在于，我们所拥有的二十一世纪的技术

with 20th and 19th century institutions, rules and cultures.

和前两个世纪的制度、规章和文化格格不入

Changing how we make electricity gets easier

如果我们对电力的需求量降低了

if we need less of it.

改变用电方式，也将变得简单

Most of it now is wasted

现在大部分的电力是被浪费掉了

and the technologies for saving it

而节电技术的发展越来越快

keep improving faster than we're installing them.

甚至超过了我们启用它们的速度

So the unbought efficiency resource

所以还未被使用的高效资源

keeps getting ever bigger and cheaper.

变得越来越多，越来越便宜

But as efficiency in buildings and industry

但是随着建筑物和工业的用电效率

starts to grow faster than the economy,

提高得越来越快，超过经济增长速度

America's electricity use could actually shrink,

美国实际上会降低电力消耗

even with the little extra use required

尽管高效的电动汽车

for those efficient electrified autos.

会带来一小部分额外的耗电

And we can do this just by reasonably accelerating existing trends.

我们只要适当地推进当前进程，就可以达到这一步

Over the next 40 years, buildings,

四十年后

which use three-quarters of the electricity,

消耗四分之三总电能的建筑物

can triple or quadruple their energy productivity,

会将能源生产力提高三到四倍

saving 1.4 trillion dollars, net present value,

省下1.4万亿美元的净现值

with a 33 percent internal rate of return

还有33%的内部收益率

or in English,

换句话说

the savings are worth four times what they cost.

省下来的部分相当于成本的四倍

And industry can accelerate too,

工业也将加速发展

doubling its energy productivity

它的能源生产力将提高两倍

with a 21 percent internal rate of return.

还有21%的内部收益率

The key is a disruptive innovation

关键就在于颠覆性创新

that we call integrative design

我们叫它整合设计

that often makes very big energy savings

它通常能够带来巨大的节约

cost less than small or no savings.

而耗费的成本很小，甚至为零

That is, it can give you expanding returns,

也就是说，它将带来递增的报酬

not diminishing returns.

而非递减的报酬

That is how our 2010 retrofit

沿着这个思路，我们在2010年

is saving over two-fifths of the energy in the Empire State Building --

把帝国大厦的6500扇窗户

remanufacturing those six and a half thousand windows on site

换成透光、反射热能的超级玻璃

into super windows that pass light, but reflect heat.

由此省下帝国大厦超过五分之二能耗

plus better lights and office equipment and such

配合更好的照明和办公设备

cut the maximum cooling load by a third.

这项举动使冷却系统的最大负荷量减少了三分之一

And then renovating smaller chillers instead of adding bigger ones

我们翻新小型冷却机，而不添置大型冷却机

saved 17 million dollars of

这也省下了1700万的资本成本

capital cost, which helped pay for the other improvements

节省下来的成本得以被用于改进其它部门

and reduce the payback to just three years.

同时，投资回收期被减少到三年

Integrative design can also increase

整合设计也可以帮助

energy savings in industry.

工业节约能源

Dow's billion-dollar efficiency investment

道琼斯指数的十亿美元提高能率的投资

has already returned nine billion dollars.

已经得到了九十亿美元的回报

But industry as a whole has another half-trillion dollars

但是工业作为一个整体

of energy still to save.

还需要省下五千亿美元的能源

For example, three-fifths of the world's electricity runs motors.

比如说，世界上五分之三的电力被用于驱动马达

Half of that runs pumps and fans.

其中的一半被用在泵和风扇上

And those can all be made more efficient,

它们都可以变得更有效率

and the motors that turn them

通过整合35个改造项目

can have their system efficiency roughly doubled

就可以使它们的驱动马达，系统效率提高两倍

by integrating 35 improvements, paying back in about a year.

而且投资回收期仅为一年

But first we ought to be capturing bigger, cheaper savings

但是我们首先必须省下那些更大宗的、更便宜的

that are normally ignored and are not in the textbooks.

经常被忽略，连教科书也不提及的节能项目

For example, pumps, the biggest use of motors,

比如说，泵，使用发动机能量最多的一部分

move liquid through pipes.

推动液体通过管道

But a standard industrial pumping loop

但是标准的工业抽水循环

was redesigned to use at least 86 percent less energy,

经过重新设计，可以省下至少86%的能量

not by getting better pumps,

不需要添置新泵

but just by replacing long, thin, crooked pipes

只需把细薄的弯管

with fat, short, straight pipes.

换成粗短的直管

This is not about new technology,

这并不是使用新技术

it's just rearranging our metal furniture.

只是重新安排金属设备

Of course, it also shrinks the pumping equipment

当然，这减少了泵的使用量

and its capital costs.

也减少了资本成本

So what do such savings mean

那么，这对于被马达耗去五分之三能源的电力来说

for the electricity that is three-fifths used in motors?

意味着什么？

Well, from the coal burned at the power plant

从燃烧煤炭的发电厂

through all these compounding losses,

到所有这些化合物耗损

only a tenth of the fuel energy

只有十分之一的化石能源

actually ends up coming out the pipe as flow.

最后通过管道供给终端使用

But now let's turn those compounding losses around backwards,

现在让我们逆转化合物耗损的趋势

and every unit of flow or friction that we save in the pipe

在管道中省下的每一单位能量

saves 10 units of fuel cost, pollution

就能省下十个单位的燃料成本、污染

and what Hunter Lovins calls "global weirding"

和亨特·罗文斯所说的“全球气候异常”

back at the power plant.

能量最终能回归到发电厂

And of course, as you go back upstream,

当然，如果回溯到上游工业

the components get smaller and therefore cheaper.

化合物会更小，也会更便宜

Our team has lately found such snowballing energy savings

我们的团队最近发现这样滚雪球式的节能方式

in more than 30 billion dollars worth of industrial redesigns --

可以被运用在超过300亿的工业重新设计中——

everything from data centers and chip fabs

从数据中心，到芯片制造

to mines and refineries.

到矿井和炼油厂，都适用

Typically our retrofit designs

尤其是我们的改进设计

save about 30 to 60 percent of the energy

可以省下30-60%的能源

and pay back in a few years,

几年内就能得到投资回报

while the new facility designs save 40 to 90-odd percent

设计新设备也将省下四成到九成多的能源

with generally lower capital cost.

一般也能降低资本成本

Now needing less electricity

减少对电力的需求

would ease and speed

就可以让向新能源，也就是再生能源的转换

the shift to new sources of electricity, chiefly renewables.

变得更容易一些，更快一些

China leads their explosive growth and their plummeting cost.

中国在这方面发展迅猛，成本也暴跌

In fact, these solar power module costs

实际上，这些太阳能发电板的成本

have just fallen off the bottom of the chart.

已经低得不能再低了

And Germany now has more solar workers

在德国，从事太阳能产业的人员数量

than America has steel workers.

和美国从事钢铁业的人一样多

Already in about 20 states

大致在20个州里

private installers will come

已经有私营厂商

put those cheap solar cells on your roof with no money down

可以把便宜的太阳能板安装在你家屋顶上，还能免费拆除

and beat your utility bill.

轻松省下大笔水电费

Such unregulated products

这些未经调控的产业

could ultimately add up to a virtual utility

最终可以成为一种虚拟公共事业

that bypasses your electric company

能越过电力公司

just as your cellphone bypassed your wireline phone company.

就像你可以越过家里的有线电话公司，使用手机

And this sort of thing gives utility executives the heebee-jeebees

它会让公共事业工作人员烦躁不已

and it gives venture capitalists sweet dreams.

它还是风险投资家的美梦

Renewables are no longer a fringe activity.

可再生能源不再是一个锦上添花的产业

For each of the past four years

在过去四年间的每一年

half of the world's new generating capacity

全世界发电量的一半

has been renewable,

是可再生能源

mainly lately in developing countries.

近年来主要分布在发展中国家

In 2010, renewables other than big hydro,

在2010年，除了水力、风力和太阳能以外的

particularly wind and solar cells,

可再生能源

got 151 billion dollars of private investment,

接受了高达1510亿的私人投资

and they actually surpassed the total installed capacity

它们实际上已经超过了

of nuclear power in the world

全球核电站装机容量的总和

by adding 60 billion watts in that one year.

每年产量比核电站多600亿瓦特

That happens to be the same amount of solar cell capacity

太阳能电板装机容量也是如此

that the world can now make every year --

全世界每年产量

a number that goes up 60 or 70 percent a year.

可以增加60-70%

In contrast, the net additions of nuclear capacity and coal capacity

相反地，核电站、燃煤电厂和其它项目的净增量

and the orders behind those keep fading

在不断减少

because they cost too much and they have too much financial risk.

因为它们成本太高，带来的金融风险也高

In fact in this country,

事实上在美国

no new nuclear power plant

已经没有新的核电站

has been able to raise any private construction capital,

可以吸引来自私人的建设投资

despite seven years of 100-plus percent subsidies.

尽管在七年间，政府每年都投入翻倍的补助款

So how else could we replace the coal-fired power plants?

所以，我们还可以用什么来取代这些燃煤电厂呢?

Well efficiency and gas can displace them all

高效的发电方式和天然气可以完全取代燃煤

at just below their operating cost

成本比燃煤的运作成本还低

and, combined with renewables, can displace them more than 23 times

如果和可再生能源结合起来，还可以取代燃煤方式23次

at less than their replacement cost.

所耗费用还不及它们的重置成本

But we only need to replace them once.

但只需要取代一次就够了

We're often told though

常常有人对我们说

that only coal and nuclear plants can keep the lights on,

只有燃煤和核能才能稳定供电

because they're 24/7,

因为它们是全天候的

whereas wind and solar power are variable,

而风能和太阳能变幻多端

and hence supposedly unreliable.

所以有人认为它们不可靠

Actually no generator is 24/7. They all break.

实际上没有发电机全天候工作，它们也需要休息

And when a big plant goes down,

当一个发电厂停止运转

you lose a thousand megawatts in milliseconds,

每毫秒就会损失一千兆瓦的发电力

often for weeks or months, often without warning.

一旦发生，就常常是几周几个月，而且毫无征兆

That is exactly why we've designed the grid

这就是我们为什么要设计出电网

to back up failed plants with working plants.

用正常工作的电站来顶替暂停运转的电站

And in exactly the same way,

同样地

the grid can handle wind and solar power's

电网可以克服风能和太阳能的

forecastable variations.

可预测的变化

Hourly simulations

每小时的模拟显示

show that largely or wholly renewable grids

大部分或全部的可再生能源电网

can deliver highly reliable power

可以输送非常稳定的电力

when they're forecasted,

只要对风能和太阳能

integrated and diversified

根据种类和位置

by both type and location.

进行预测、整合和多元化处理

And that's true both for continental areas like the U.S. or Europe

这对美国或欧洲这样的大陆地区

and for smaller areas embedded within a larger grid.

和被大型电网覆盖的较小地区都适用

That is how, for example,

这就是，比如说

four German states in 2010

在2010年，德国的四个州

were 43 to 52 percent wind powered.

实现由风力供应43-52%能源的做法

Portugal was 45 percent renewable powered,

葡萄牙实现了45%能源由风能供应

Denmark 36.

而丹麦是36%

And it's how all of Europe can shift

这就是全欧洲国家

to renewable electricity.

向可再生能源转型的做法

In America, our aging, dirty and insecure power system

在美国，我们老化、肮脏、不可靠的能源系统

has to be replaced anyway by 2050.

不论如何都需要在2050年前被取代

And whatever we replace it with

而且不论我们用什么来取代它

is going to cost about the same,

花费都会和现在差不多

about six trillion dollars at present value --

大约六万亿美元的净现值——

whether we buy more of what we've got

不论我们会不会购买更多的现有资源

or new nuclear and so-called clean coal,

建现多的核电厂，使用所谓的洁净煤技术

or renewables that are more or less centralized.

或是现在或多或少已经被集中处理的可再生能源

But those four futures at the same cost

但是这四种未来的选择成本相近

differ profoundly in their risks,

风险却很不一样

around national security,

不论是事关国家安全

fuel, water, finance, technology,

燃料，水，金融，技术，气候和健康

climate and health.

风险都有显著差别

For example, our over-centralized grid

比如说，过于集中化的电网

is very vulnerable to cascading

完全经不起级联型的

and potentially economy-shattering blackouts

和可能粉碎经济体的运作中断

caused by bad space weather or other natural disasters

恶劣天气，其它自然灾害

or a terrorist attack.

或是恐怖袭击造成的中断都能摧毁它

But that blackout risk disappears,

但停电危机将不复存在

and all of the other risks are best managed,

其它危机也能被妥善控制

with distributed renewables

只要我们将可再生能源

organized into local micro-grids that normally interconnect,

分配并组织成相互连结的区域性微电网

but can stand alone at need.

需要时，它们也能独立工作

That is, they can disconnect fractally

也就是说，它们能互相分离独立

and then reconnect seamlessly.

也能重新建立无缝的联接

That approach is exactly what the Pentagon is adopting

这就是五角大楼控制

for its own power supply.

它自己内部控电的方法

They think they need that; how about the rest of us that they're defending?

他们认为这很有必要。那么受他们保护的我们呢？

We want our stuff to work too.

我们也希望我们的供电系统也能这样运转

At about the same cost as business as usual,

这种方式的运营成本和其它方式一样

this would maximize national security,

却能最大程度地保障国家安全

customer choice, entrepreneurial opportunity

为顾客提供最多的选择，给投资家最多的机会

and innovation.

实现最大的革新

Together, efficient use and diverse dispersed renewable supply

总的来说，高效的使用方式和多元化的供应方式

are starting to transform the whole electricity sector.

正在改变整个电力供应系统

Traditionally utilities build

传统的公共事业

a lot of giant coal and nuclear plants

建造了许多大型燃煤电厂，核电站

and a bunch of big gas plants

一些天然气电厂

and maybe a little bit of efficiency renewables.

可能还有一些高效可再生能源电厂

And those utilities were rewarded,

在34个州

as they still are in 34 states,

这些公共设施

for selling you more electricity.

仍然因为能供应更多电力受到奖赏

However, especially where regulators

但正是在这些管理者

are now instead rewarding cutting your bills,

鼓励减少耗能的地方

the investments are shifting radically

投资正在急剧转向新的方面

toward efficiency, demand response, cogeneration,

这包括高效使用，需求响应，汽电共生

renewables and ways to knit them all together reliably

可再生能源

with less transmission

和耗费较少传输成本

and little or no bulk electricity storage.

和较少电力储存的整合串联方法

So our energy future is not fate, but choice,

所以能源的未来，不是取决于命运

and that choice is very flexible.

而是取决于我们的选择，很有弹性的选择

In 1976, for example,

比如说，在1976年

government and industry insisted

政府和工业坚持

that the amount of energy needed to make a dollar of GDP

要求花费在每一美元国内生产总值的能源量

could never go down.

不能降低

And I heretically suggested it could go down several-fold.

当时我却偏要提议，它可以降低七倍

Well that's what's actually happened so far.

事实正是如此

It's fallen by half.

耗能量减半了。

But with today's much better technologies,

但是配合当今的高科技

more mature delivery channels and integrative design,

更成熟的传输渠道和整合设计

we can do far more and even cheaper.

我们可以更大程度地降低耗能和成本

So to solve the energy problem,

所以想要解决能源问题

we just needed to enlarge it.

我们只要把问题扩大

And the results may at first seem incredible,

也许一开始结果显得让人难以置信

but as Marshall McLuhan said,

但正如马歇尔·麦克卢恩所说

"Only puny secrets need protection.

“只有微不足道的秘密需要保护

Big discoveries are protected by public incredulity."

伟大的发现自会受到公众的质疑”

Now combine the electricity and oil revolutions,

结合现代效率驱动的

both driven by modern efficiency,

电力和石油革命

and you get the really big story: reinventing fire,

就会找到关键：重燃火源

where business enabled and sped by smart policies in mindful markets

当明智的政策孵育并加速商业发展

can lead the United States completely off oil and coal by 2050,

就能引领美国在2050年完全摆脱石油和燃煤

saving 5 trillion dollars,

省下5万亿美元的开销

growing the economy 2.6-fold,

实现2.6倍的经济发展

strengthening out national security,

强化国家安全

oh, and by the way, by getting rid of the oil and coal,

哦，随便提一下，摆脱石油和燃煤

reducing the fossil carbon emissions by 82 to 86 percent.

还能减少82-86%的碳排放

Now if you like any of those outcomes,

如果你支持其中任何一项

you can support reinventing fire

你可以支持重燃火源的行动

without needing to like all of them

而不需要对每一项都有好感

and without needing to agree about which of them is most important.

不需要认定哪一项最为重要

So focusing on outcomes, not motives,

关注结果，而并动机

can turn gridlock and conflict

可以把困境和冲突转化为

into a unifying solution to America's energy challenge.

化解美国能源危机的统一方案

This also turns out to be the best way

这也将是解决全球危机的

to cope with global challenges --

最佳答案——

climate change, nuclear proliferation,

气候变化，核扩散

energy insecurity, energy poverty --

能源危机，能源短缺——

all of which make us less safe.

所有这些都是不安定因素

Now our team at RMI helps smart companies

现在我们的RMI团队正在帮助明智的公司

to get unstuck and speed this journey

摆脱困境，加速转换进程

via six sectoral initiatives, with some more hatching.

我们启动了六个方面的计划，正在筹划其它方面的动作

Of course there's still a lot of old thinking out there too.

当然外界还有许多传统观念

Former oil man Maurice Strong said,

前石油大亨莫里斯.斯特朗说

"Not all the fossils are in the fuel."

“不是所有的化石都变成了石油。”

But as Edgar Woolard, who used to chair Dupont, reminds us,

但是杜邦公司前总裁埃德加·伍拉德提醒我们

"Companies hampered by old thinking won't be a problem

“被传统观念阻碍的公司不会是问题”

because," he said," they simply won't be around long-term."

“因为它们不会长久”

I've described not just a once-in-a-civilization

我所描述的并不只是

business opportunity,

一个文明只有一次的商业契机

but one of the most profound transitions

还是人类文明最重要的

in the history of our species.

转变之一

We humans are inventing a new fire,

人类正在发明一种新的火

not dug from below,

并不从地下深挖

but flowing from above;

却从地表上获得

not scarce, but bountiful;

并不稀缺，却很丰富

not local, but everywhere;

并不局限在一处，却四处可是

not transient, but permanent;

并不短暂，却能持久

not costly, but free.

并不昂贵，却是免费的

And but for a little transitional tail of natural gas

而且和已经快用完的天然气不同

and a bit of biofuel grown in ways that sustain and endure,

和以各种形式持续产生的生物能源不同

this new fire is flameless.

这种新火不需要燃烧

Efficiently used, it really can do our work

如果能高效地使用它

without working our undoing.

它可以帮助人类发展，而不致人类毁灭

Each of you owns a piece of that $5 trillion prize.

每个人都将享有那5万亿美元成果的一部分

And our new book "Reinventing Fire"

我们的新书《重燃火源》

describes how you can capture it.

就告诉你将如何取得这成果

So with the conversation just begun

当讨论刚刚开始

at ReinventingFire.com,

以 ReinventingFire.com 作为平台

let me invite you each

我想邀请在座各位

to engage with us and with each other, with everyone around you,

和我们，和在座各位，和各位身边的每个人

to help make the world richer, fairer,

一起努力让世界更富饶，更公平

cooler and safer

更凉爽，更安全

by together reinventing fire.

只要我们一起重燃火源

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）