Amory Lovins: A 40-year plan for energy

Translator: Jenny Zurawell Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Eddy Ho 審譯者: Chien-Ping 洪健彬 Hung

America's public energy conversation

美國的公共能源議題

boils down to this question:

最後總歸為這個問題

Would you rather die of A) oil wars,

你比較喜歡哪種死法 A. 石油戰爭

or B) climate change,

B. 氣候變遷

or C) nuclear holocaust,

C. 核武浩劫

or D) all of the above?

或是 D. 以上皆是

Oh, I missed one: or E) none of the above?

噢 我漏了一個 E. 以上皆非

That's the one we're not normally offered.

但通常不會有這個選項

What if we could make energy do our work

要是能運用能源 協助我們工作

without working our undoing?

又不會導致毀滅 該有多好

Could we have fuel without fear?

我們能不能安心使用燃料

Could we reinvent fire?

我們能不能重新造出火

You see, fire made us human;

火造就了人類

fossil fuels made us modern.

石化燃料使我們現代化

But now we need a new fire

但我們現在需要一種新的火

that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.

一種能讓我們安全 安定 健康 又能永續發展的火

Let's see how.

讓我們看看 該怎麼做

Four-fifths of the world's energy

世界上五分之四的能源

still comes from burning each year

仍然來自於每年燃燒

four cubic miles of the rotted remains

四立方英哩原始沼澤的

of primeval swamp goo.

腐化物質

Those fossil fuels

這些石化燃料

have built our civilization.

幫助我們建立文明

They've created our wealth.

幫助我們創造財富

They've enriched the lives of billions.

豐富了數十億人的生活

But they also have rising costs

但就安全 經濟 健康和環境而言

to our security, economy, health and environment

石化燃料的成本 卻不斷增加

that are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.

也許利仍大於弊 但壞處的確日漸增加

So we need a new fire.

所以我們需要一種新的火

And switching from the old fire to the new fire

從舊的火 轉變成新的火

means changing two big stories about oil and electricity,

意味著石油及電力的使用模式 將會改變

each of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.

雖然兩者都會排放五分之二的化石碳

But they're really quite distinct.

卻大不相同

Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil --

石油所產生的電力 占不到 1%

although almost half is made from coal.

而燃煤產生了 將近 50% 的電力

Their uses are quite concentrated.

兩者的用途都相當集中

Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.

四分之三的石油 集中在交通運輸

Three-fourths of our electricity powers buildings.

而四分之三的電力 用於建築物用電

And the rest of both runs factories.

而兩者所剩下的四分之一 則供給工廠營運

So very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories

高效率的交通工具 建築物與工廠

save oil and coal,

能省下許多石油與燃煤

and also natural gas that can displace both of them.

還有能取代石油與煤炭的天然氣

But today's energy system is not just inefficient,

但目前的能源系統不只是沒效率

it is also disconnected,

還相當零散

aging, dirty and insecure.

系統老舊 汙穢不堪 又不安全

So it needs refurbishment.

能源系統勢必要翻新

By 2050 though, it could become efficient,

到 2050 年 系統就能較有效率

connected and distributed

彼此互通 妥善運用

with elegantly frugal

也能節約能源

autos, factories and buildings

交通工具 工廠與建築物

all relying on a modern, secure

都仰賴兼具現代化 安全

and resilient electricity system.

與使用彈性的電力系統

We can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050

到 2050 年 我們就能減少對石油與煤炭的依賴

and use one-third less natural gas

並將天然氣的使用量降低三分之一

while switching to efficient use

此時 我們能更有效運用資源

and renewable supply.

與再生能源

This could cost, by 2050,

到了 2050 年

five trillion dollars less in net present value,

淨現值能減少五兆美元

that is expressed as a lump sum today,

這裡是指總值

than business as usual --

是相對於目前的營運成本而言

assuming that carbon emissions

但我們必須先假設 碳排放

and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero --

及其他隱性或外部成本為零

a conservatively low estimate.

但這只是保守估計

Yet this cheaper energy system

如果能源系統變得更便宜

could support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy

就能使美國經濟擴大 158%

all without needing oil or coal,

完全不使用石油 煤炭

or for that matter nuclear energy.

或核能

Moreover, this transition needs no new inventions

不僅於此 這個轉變不需要新發明

and no acts of Congress

不需要新法令

and no new federal taxes, mandate subsidies or laws

不需要新稅目 不需要補助金 也不需要新法條

and running Washington gridlock.

美國政府也不會因此陷入困境

Let me say that again.

容我重申

I'm going to tell you how to get the United States

我想讓你們知道 要怎樣讓美國

completely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper

完全擺脫石油與煤炭 並減少五兆美元的開銷

with no act of Congress

完全不需要

led by business for profit.

受營利組織操控的國會 制訂新法

In other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions --

換句話說 我們要運用最具效率的組織 民營企業

private enterprise co-evolving with civil society

與公民社會 共同努力

and sped by military innovation

並透過軍事革新 加速發展

to go around our least effective institutions.

這樣才能跳過最不具效率的機構

And whether you care most

也許你們最關心的

about profits and jobs and competitive advantage

是利益 工作 競爭優勢

or national security, or environmental stewardship

國家安全 環境管理

and climate protection and public health,

氣候保護 或是公共衛生

reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.

重新研發取得能源的方式 合理也有賺頭

General Eisenhower reputedly said

據說 艾森豪將軍說過

that enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem

將一個棘手問題的範圍擴大

makes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies.

就能涵蓋更多解決方案與協助效應 就能解決問題

So in reinventing fire,

所以 為了要重新研發取得能源的方式

we integrated all four sectors that use energy --

我們結合了耗能的四個部分

transportation, buildings, industry and electricity --

也就是 交通運輸 建築用電 工業與發電

and we integrated four kinds of innovation,

也結合了四方面的革新

not just technology and policy,

不單只靠新科技和政策

but also design and business strategy.

還包括設計與商業策略

Those combinations yield

合併後 產生的效益

very much more than the sum of the parts,

遠比各項的總和還大

especially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.

特別是合併後 創造了顛覆性商業的機會

Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,

我們每天都得花 20 億買石油

plus another four billion dollars a day

每天還得多付 40 億美元

in hidden economic and military costs,

投注在隱性的經濟與軍事成本

raising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP.

總額竟然超過國內生產總值的六分之一

Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.

既然五分之三的機動燃料都用在交通工具上

So let's start by making autos oil free.

那我們就從這個問題著手吧

Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car

要驅動一般車種 得耗費三分之二的能量

is caused by its weight.

而車子的重量 就是如此耗能的原因

And every unit of energy you save at the wheels,

無論是減輕車子的重量 或是減少煞車時的消耗

by taking out weight or drag,

如果能在開車時節省一單位的能量

saves seven units in the tank,

油箱就能減少七單位的耗損

because you don't have to waste six units

因為你不需要多耗費六單位的能量

getting the energy to the wheels.

把能量傳輸到車輪

Unfortunately, over the past quarter century,

但很不幸的是 在過去 25 年

epidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars

嚴重的肥胖問題 讓原本兩噸重的車子變得更重

gain weight twice as fast as we have.

而且增加的速度將近兩倍

But today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials,

但現今 我們擁有超輕 超堅固材料

like carbon fiber composites,

像是碳纖維複合材料

can make dramatic weight savings snowball

能大幅減輕車子的重量

and can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.

也能讓生產汽車 變得更簡單 更便宜

Lighter and more slippery autos

汽車質量越輕 運轉越順暢

need less force to move them,

驅動汽車所需的能量就越低

so their engines get smaller.

引擎就能越小

Indeed, that sort of vehicle fitness

事實上 車輛的這種適性

then makes electric propulsion affordable

能讓電力驅動變得經濟實惠

because the batteries or fuel cells

因為電力電池或是燃料電池

also get smaller and lighter and cheaper.

也能變得更小 更輕 更便宜

So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today,

最後 電池的價格就能與目前價格相仿

while the driving cost, even from the start,

而駕駛成本 就算是從一開始算起

is very much lower.

也降低非常多了

So these innovations together can transform automakers

結合這些革新 就能讓汽車製造商

from wringing tiny savings

不需再想方設法

out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies

節省蒸氣引擎與軸封技術的成本 卻成效不彰

to the steeply falling costs

而能省下一大筆開銷

of three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other --

只要結合這三項彼此相互補強的革新 就能做到

namely ultralight materials, making them into structures

當中包含 超輕材料 製造技術

and electric propulsion.

以及電力驅動系統

The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster

配合短期優惠方案

with temporary feebates,

就能增加銷量 價錢也能壓低得更快

that is rebates for efficient new autos

這對高效能的新車種而言 就像是種回扣

paid for by fees on inefficient ones.

金額與低效能車種的花費相當

And just in the first two years

在剛開始的前兩年

the biggest of Europe's five feebate programs

歐洲實行的五項優惠方案中 最大的一項

has tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency.

將汽車的效能提升速度 提高了三倍

The resulting shift to electric autos

換成電動車

is going to be as game-changing

我們就必須改變遊戲規則

as shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers.

就像從打字機轉換到電腦一樣

Of course, computers and electronics

當然 電腦與電子產品

are now America's biggest industry,

是現今美國規模最大的工業

while typewriter makers have vanished.

但打字機製造商卻消失無蹤

So vehicle fitness

車輛適性

opens a new automotive competitive strategy

產生了一種新的汽車競爭策略

that can double the oil savings over the next 40 years,

在未來 40 年 汽車的省油率能提升兩倍

but then also make electrification affordable,

電動車也變得平價

and that displaces the rest of the oil.

如此 電動車就能取代汽油車

America could lead this next automotive revolution.

美國有能力主導這一波汽車革新

Currently the leader is Germany.

但目前 主導權在德國手上

Last year, Volkswagen announced

去年 福斯汽車宣布

that by next year they'll be producing

從今年開始 他們會著手生產

this carbon fiber plugin hybrid

碳纖維插件混合車

getting 230 miles a gallon.

一加侖的汽油 就能跑 230 英哩

Also last year, BMW announced

同樣在去年 BMW 公布了

this carbon fiber electric car,

這款碳纖維電動車

they said that its carbon fiber is paid for

公司指出 運用了碳纖維技術

by needing fewer batteries.

就能減少汽車的電池數目

And they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker."

他們也表示 "我們不願成為打字機製造商"

Audi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.

奧迪公司宣稱 他們要在一年內打敗福斯與 BMW

Seven years ago, an even faster and cheaper

七年前 許多美國廠商運用了

American manufacturing technology

更快速 更便宜的生產科技

was used to make this little carbon fiber test part,

以製造出碳纖維測試零件

which doubles as a carbon cap.

這玩意兒還能當帽子

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

In one minute -- and you can tell from the sound

只要一分鐘 你們就能聽出

how immensely stiff and strong it is.

它有多麼堅硬 多麼牢固

Don't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium.

掉到地上也沒關係 它比鈦金屬還硬

Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer

事實上 湯姆弗里德曼曾拿鐵鎚死命地敲

without even scuffing it.

結果卻連一點刮痕也沒有

But such manufacturing techniques

這樣的生產技術

can scale to automotive speed and cost

如果能結合流體設計

with aerospace performance.

就能影響汽車的速度與成本

They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.

除了能將生產汽車的資本降低五分之四

They can save lives

它也能保障生命安全

because this stuff can absorb

因為它能吸收的撞擊力

up to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel.

是每磅鋼鐵所能吸收的 12 倍

If we made all of our autos this way,

如果能全面採行這個技術

it would save oil equivalent to finding

就能省下 一個半的沙烏地阿拉伯

one and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC,

或半個石油輸出國家組織所蘊含的油

by drilling in the Detroit formation, a very prospective play.

若從底特律著手 就有可能成功

And all those mega-barrels under Detroit

底特律所蘊含 數百萬桶的石油

cost an average of 18 bucks a barrel.

平均每桶都要價 18 美元

They are all-American, carbon-free

全為美國所產 也沒有碳排放的問題

and inexhaustible.

取之不盡 用之不竭

The same physics and the same business logic

同樣的道理 同樣的商業邏輯

also apply to big vehicles.

也適用於大型交通工具

In the five years ending with 2010,

2005 年到 2010 年

Walmart saved 60 percent of the fuel per ton-mile

沃爾瑪的重型卡車隊 每英哩的石油用量

in its giant fleet of heavy trucks

減少了 60%

through better logistics and design.

這歸功於更好的設計與後勤機制

But just the technological savings in heavy trucks

單就重型卡車 憑藉科技所省下來的部分

can get to two-thirds.

就有三分之二這麼多

And combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes,

就像是螢幕上所呈現的

now on the drawing board,

若結合運輸效率為三到五倍的飛機

can save close to a trillion dollars.

就能省下將近一兆

Also today's military revolution in energy efficiency

而今 能源效率的軍事革新

is going to speed up all of these civilian advances

也能加速民生科技的發展

in much the same way that military R&D

就像是軍事研發

has given us the Internet, the Global Positioning System

同樣賜予我們網際網路 全球定位系統

and the jet engine and microchip industries.

還有噴射引擎 與微晶片工業

As we design and build vehicles better,

當我們設計 生產更好的交通工具時

we can also use them smarter

我們也能更明智地使用它們

by harnessing four powerful techniques

運用四種強而有力的科技

for eliminating needless driving.

以減少駕駛時 無謂的耗損

Instead of just seeing the travel grow,

知道出遊里程數成長還不夠

we can use innovative pricing,

我們可以運用創新的定價方式

charging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.

以里程數計算道路使用費 而不以耗油量計

We can use some smart IT to enhance transit

我們可以運用智慧資訊科技 提升運輸能力

and enable car sharing and ride sharing.

增進車輛共用及共乘率

We can allow smart and lucrative growth models

我們能運用智慧又有經濟效益的成長模組

that help people already be near where they want to be,

幫助已經接近目標的人們

so they don't need to go somewhere else.

走對方向

And we can use smart IT

我們也能運用智慧資訊科技

to make traffic free-flowing.

保持交通順暢

Together, those things can give us the same or better access

結合智慧資訊科技 我們就能更接近目標

with 46 to 84 percent less driving,

減少 46% 至 84 %的駕駛消耗

saving another 0.4 trillion dollars,

再省下一筆 4千億美元的開銷

plus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.

若能更有效使用卡車 就能再省 3千億

So 40 years hence, when you add it all up,

將金額總和起來 40 年後

a far more mobile U.S. economy

美國汽車經濟

can use no oil.

就能完全擺脫石油

Saving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks

就能省下每桶 25 美元的石油

rather than buying them for over a hundred,

更不需要花一百多元去買

adds up to a $4 trillion net saving

忽略隱性成本的話

counting all the hidden costs at zero.

淨節省總值高達四兆美元

So to get mobility without oil,

為了要讓汽車工業脫離石油

to phase out the oil,

擺脫石油的束縛

we can get efficient and then switch fuels.

我們得先增加效率 再設法改變燃料

Those 125 to 240 mile-per-gallon-equivalent autos

每加侖汽油能跑 125 至 240 英哩的汽車

can use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells,

可以混合使用氫燃料電池

electricity and advanced biofuels.

電力電池 與先進的生質燃料

The trucks and planes can realistically use

事實上 卡車與飛機

hydrogen or advanced biofuels.

也能使用氫氣或生質燃料

The trucks could even use natural gas.

卡車甚至能使用天然氣

But no vehicles will need oil.

所有的交通工具 都能擺脫石油

And the most biofuel we might need,

所需的生質燃料

just three million barrels a day,

每天也不過 300 萬桶

can be made two-thirds from waste

其中的三分之二的可由廢棄物回收製造

without displacing any cropland

完全不需要占用農地

and without harming soil or climate.

也不會傷害土壤與氣候

Our team speeds up these kinds of oil savings

我們的團隊正在加速發展這種省油模式

by what we call "institutional acupuncture."

我們稱之為 "體制針灸"

We figure out where the business logic

我們是因為 商業邏輯過多

is congested and not flowing properly,

沒辦法順利流動的概念 才想到的

we stick little needles in it to get it flowing,

我們插入細針幫助它導通

working with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.

與福特汽車、沃爾瑪、國防部等單位合作

And the long transition is already well under way.

漫長的轉換過程正在進行

In fact, three years ago mainstream analysts were starting to see peak oil,

事實上 主流分析師在三年前 就注意到石油峰值

not in supply, but in demand.

需求面的石油峰值

And Deutsche Bank even said world oil use could peak around 2016.

德意志銀行甚至表示 石油用量會在 2016 年達到高峰

In other words, oil is getting uncompetitive even at low prices

換言之 即使石油還沒貴到買不起

before it becomes unavailable even at high prices.

也已經失去競爭力了

But the electrified vehicles

但電動交通工具

don't need to burden the electricity grid.

不會對電網造成負擔

Rather, when smart autos exchange electricity and information

當智慧汽車 透過設有智能電網的建築物

through smart buildings with smart grids,

得到電力 交換資訊時

they're adding to the grid valuable flexibility and storage

汽車其實增加了電網 珍貴的彈性與儲存能力

that help the grid integrate

如此便能幫助電網

varying solar and wind power.

整合不斷變化的太陽能及風能

So the electrified autos

所以 電動車

make the auto and electricity problems

讓汽車與電力的問題

easier to solve together than separately.

在合併後更易於處理

And they also converge the oil story

電動交通工具也整合了

with our second big story,

石油與電力的使用模式

saving electricity and then making it differently.

不但節電 還能改變使用模式

And those twin revolutions in electricity

再生能源與電動車

will bring to that sector

把問題帶到用電模式

more numerous and profound and diverse disruptions

用電量很大 涉及層面很深 又相當繁複

than any other sector,

是其他部分無法相比的

because we've got 21st century technology and speed colliding head-on

我們擁有最先進的科技與發展速度

with 20th and 19th century institutions, rules and cultures.

卻因此與前二世紀的制度 規章 及文化產生衝擊

Changing how we make electricity gets easier

取得電力方式的改變 會越來越簡單

if we need less of it.

降低需求量就好

Most of it now is wasted

大部分的電力都被浪費掉

and the technologies for saving it

而節約電力的科技進展迅速

keep improving faster than we're installing them.

甚至超過我們運用它們的速度

So the unbought efficiency resource

所以 還買不到的效率資源

keeps getting ever bigger and cheaper.

就越來越龐大 越來越便宜

But as efficiency in buildings and industry

但隨著建築物與工業越來越有效率

starts to grow faster than the economy,

甚至超過經濟發展的速度

America's electricity use could actually shrink,

美國的電力消耗反而能降低

even with the little extra use required

儘管會有小部分的額外消耗

for those efficient electrified autos.

必須用在電動車充電上

And we can do this just by reasonably accelerating existing trends.

我們只需要適時地推動現有趨勢就可以了

Over the next 40 years, buildings,

40 年後

which use three-quarters of the electricity,

占用了四分之三電力的建築物

can triple or quadruple their energy productivity,

就能將能源生產力提升三倍到四倍

saving 1.4 trillion dollars, net present value,

省下一兆四千億美元的淨現值

with a 33 percent internal rate of return

還會有 33% 的內部回收率

or in English,

換句話說

the savings are worth four times what they cost.

事實上 省下來部分相當於成本的四倍

And industry can accelerate too,

工業也能加速發展

doubling its energy productivity

將能源生產力提升兩倍

with a 21 percent internal rate of return.

內部回收率也能達到 21%

The key is a disruptive innovation

關鍵就在於 破壞式創新

that we call integrative design

我們稱之為 整合設計

that often makes very big energy savings

整合設計通常能省下可觀的能源

cost less than small or no savings.

成本很低 甚至為零

That is, it can give you expanding returns,

整合設計能產生更多回饋

not diminishing returns.

而非減少

That is how our 2010 retrofit

這就是我們在 2010 年

is saving over two-fifths of the energy in the Empire State Building --

改造帝國大廈 省下超過五分之二能源的方法

remanufacturing those six and a half thousand windows on site

大樓的 6500 扇窗戶 被我們重製成超級窗戶

into super windows that pass light, but reflect heat.

光能穿透玻璃 但熱能卻不行

plus better lights and office equipment and such

配合更好的照明與辦公室設備

cut the maximum cooling load by a third.

冷卻系統的最大負荷量 減少了三分之一

And then renovating smaller chillers instead of adding bigger ones

我們修復小型冷卻機 而不添購大型冷卻機

saved 17 million dollars of

這省下了 1700 萬的資本成本

capital cost, which helped pay for the other improvements

而這筆錢就能拿來改善其他地方

and reduce the payback to just three years.

並將投資回收期 縮短至僅僅三年

Integrative design can also increase

整合設計也能幫助工業

energy savings in industry.

節約用電

Dow's billion-dollar efficiency investment

道瓊指數的十億效率投資

has already returned nine billion dollars.

目前已經回本九億了

But industry as a whole has another half-trillion dollars

但整個工業還得省下

of energy still to save.

5000 億的能源

For example, three-fifths of the world's electricity runs motors.

例如 全球五分之三的電力用在馬達上

Half of that runs pumps and fans.

其中 一半用於幫浦與風扇

And those can all be made more efficient,

但它們都能變得更有效率

and the motors that turn them

而轉動它們的馬達

can have their system efficiency roughly doubled

大約能將系統效率提高兩倍

by integrating 35 improvements, paying back in about a year.

只要能整合 35 項改善項目 一年就能回本

But first we ought to be capturing bigger, cheaper savings

但首先 我們必須省下更大宗 更便宜的項目

that are normally ignored and are not in the textbooks.

這項常常會被忽略 教科書也沒提

For example, pumps, the biggest use of motors,

例如 幫浦是馬達使用的最大宗

move liquid through pipes.

它能移動水體通過管線

But a standard industrial pumping loop

但標準的工業抽水循環

was redesigned to use at least 86 percent less energy,

經過改良 能節省至少 86% 的能源

not by getting better pumps,

不需要添購新幫浦

but just by replacing long, thin, crooked pipes

只要把細長 彎曲的管線

with fat, short, straight pipes.

換成粗短的直線管線就可以了

This is not about new technology,

這與新科技無關

it's just rearranging our metal furniture.

只是重新安排金屬設備

Of course, it also shrinks the pumping equipment

當然 幫浦會變小

and its capital costs.

資本成本亦然

So what do such savings mean

這樣的節約

for the electricity that is three-fifths used in motors?

對供給馬達五分之三能源的電力而言 代表什麼

Well, from the coal burned at the power plant

從發電廠 燃燒煤炭開始

through all these compounding losses,

到化合物耗損為止

only a tenth of the fuel energy

僅有十分之一的能源

actually ends up coming out the pipe as flow.

最後能透過管線傳輸到外界

But now let's turn those compounding losses around backwards,

我們現在把化合物耗損的狀況倒轉

and every unit of flow or friction that we save in the pipe

在管線之中 省下來的每單位能量

saves 10 units of fuel cost, pollution

就能省下十單位的燃料成本與汙染

and what Hunter Lovins calls "global weirding"

以及杭特所謂的 "全球氣候異常"

back at the power plant.

能量最後回歸發電廠

And of course, as you go back upstream,

當然 如果追回上游工業

the components get smaller and therefore cheaper.

組成的部件會比較小 也會比較便宜

Our team has lately found such snowballing energy savings

我們的團隊最近發現一種成效能倍增的節能方式

in more than 30 billion dollars worth of industrial redesigns --

能套用在價值超過 300 億的工業重設中

everything from data centers and chip fabs

資料中心 晶片工廠

to mines and refineries.

礦場 煉油廠都適用

Typically our retrofit designs

我們的改造設計

save about 30 to 60 percent of the energy

一般能省下 30% 至 60% 的能源

and pay back in a few years,

幾年內就能回本

while the new facility designs save 40 to 90-odd percent

設計新設備 能節省四成至九成多的能源

with generally lower capital cost.

通常也能降低資本成本

Now needing less electricity

對電力的需求降低

would ease and speed

就能緩和及加速

the shift to new sources of electricity, chiefly renewables.

新能源的轉換 簡言之 就是再生能源

China leads their explosive growth and their plummeting cost.

中國大陸在這方面成長卓越 成本也急遽降低

In fact, these solar power module costs

事實上 這些太陽能發電板的成本

have just fallen off the bottom of the chart.

已經低到超乎想像了

And Germany now has more solar workers

德國目前從事太陽能相關工作的人

than America has steel workers.

比美國的鋼鐵業人員還多

Already in about 20 states

大致上 在 20 州內

private installers will come

已有許多私人廠商

put those cheap solar cells on your roof with no money down

會將便宜的太陽能板安裝在你家屋頂 且卸除不須付費

and beat your utility bill.

你的水電費會低得驚人

Such unregulated products

這種民營的產品

could ultimately add up to a virtual utility

最終能聚集成一種虛擬公共事業

that bypasses your electric company

能跳過電力公司

just as your cellphone bypassed your wireline phone company.

就像手機 能繞過家裡的有線電話公司

And this sort of thing gives utility executives the heebee-jeebees

它會讓公共事業的行政人員焦躁無比

and it gives venture capitalists sweet dreams.

也讓愛冒險的資本家懷抱美夢

Renewables are no longer a fringe activity.

再生能源不再是沒人要的資源

For each of the past four years

過去四年間的每一年

half of the world's new generating capacity

全世界的新發電量

has been renewable,

泰半為再生能源

mainly lately in developing countries.

而近年大多都分布於發展中國家

In 2010, renewables other than big hydro,

2010 年 排除水力 風力 及太陽能

particularly wind and solar cells,

其餘的再生能源

got 151 billion dollars of private investment,

接受了高達 1510 億的私人投資

and they actually surpassed the total installed capacity

事實上 這已經超過了

of nuclear power in the world

全球核電廠裝設量的總額

by adding 60 billion watts in that one year.

再生能源一年就能增加 600 億瓦特的電力

That happens to be the same amount of solar cell capacity

太陽能電板裝設量也是如此

that the world can now make every year --

全世界每年能增加的比例

a number that goes up 60 or 70 percent a year.

高達 60% 至 70%

In contrast, the net additions of nuclear capacity and coal capacity

反之 核電廠 燃煤電廠

and the orders behind those keep fading

及其他項目的淨增量 都不斷減少

because they cost too much and they have too much financial risk.

因為一般電廠成本太高 容易引發財政危機

In fact in this country,

事實上 在美國

no new nuclear power plant

已經沒有核電廠

has been able to raise any private construction capital,

能得到私人的建設資助

despite seven years of 100-plus percent subsidies.

儘管七年間 政府每年都增加一倍的補助款

So how else could we replace the coal-fired power plants?

所以 為了取代燃煤電廠 我們還能做什麼呢

Well efficiency and gas can displace them all

高效率發電方式及天然氣 能完全取代燃煤電廠

at just below their operating cost

費用還比燃煤電廠的營運成本低

and, combined with renewables, can displace them more than 23 times

若結合再生能源 不但能取代它們 還能取代 23 次

at less than their replacement cost.

費用甚至比重置成本更低

But we only need to replace them once.

但只需要取代一次就夠了

We're often told though

可是我們卻常聽到

that only coal and nuclear plants can keep the lights on,

只有燃煤與核能 才能穩定供電

because they're 24/7,

因為它們可以持續發電 毫不停歇

whereas wind and solar power are variable,

風力與太陽能相對不穩定

and hence supposedly unreliable.

因此有人認為 風力與太陽能很不可靠

Actually no generator is 24/7. They all break.

事實上 沒有發電機能不休息

And when a big plant goes down,

若發電廠停止運轉

you lose a thousand megawatts in milliseconds,

每毫秒就會損失千兆瓦的電力

often for weeks or months, often without warning.

停止運轉通常都會維持幾週至幾個月 甚至沒有事先告知

That is exactly why we've designed the grid

這就是為什麼我們要設計出電網

to back up failed plants with working plants.

以與現役的電廠合作 補足歇業電廠的缺額

And in exactly the same way,

同理

the grid can handle wind and solar power's

電網能夠克服風力及太陽能

forecastable variations.

可預測的變化

Hourly simulations

長達一小時的模擬測試

show that largely or wholly renewable grids

顯示出大部分或全部的再生能源電網

can deliver highly reliable power

能夠傳輸非常穩定的電力

when they're forecasted,

只要風力及太陽能

integrated and diversified

能夠依據種類及位置預測

by both type and location.

透過整合及多元化處理 就能辦到

And that's true both for continental areas like the U.S. or Europe

這在大陸地區 像是美國及歐洲 的確可行

and for smaller areas embedded within a larger grid.

而幅員較小的地區 只要能安裝大型電網就行

That is how, for example,

舉例來說 這是 2010 年

four German states in 2010

德國四省的做法

were 43 to 52 percent wind powered.

風力發電占了總電量的 43% 到 52%

Portugal was 45 percent renewable powered,

而葡萄牙的再生能源占了 45%

Denmark 36.

丹麥則為 36%

And it's how all of Europe can shift

這就是全歐洲國家

to renewable electricity.

能夠轉換到再生能源的方法

In America, our aging, dirty and insecure power system

而我們美國 老舊 骯髒 又不安全的電力系統

has to be replaced anyway by 2050.

在 2050 年以前 無論如何都必須更新

And whatever we replace it with

不管我們用什麼取代現有的設備

is going to cost about the same,

成本幾乎與現在的電廠差不多

about six trillion dollars at present value --

現值約六兆美元

whether we buy more of what we've got

不管我們會不會購買更多現有資源

or new nuclear and so-called clean coal,

蓋新的核電廠 運用所謂的淨煤

or renewables that are more or less centralized.

或者 或多或少已集中管理的再生能源

But those four futures at the same cost

剛才提到的四項 成本都很接近

differ profoundly in their risks,

但各項所承受的風險

around national security,

對國家安全

fuel, water, finance, technology,

燃料 水資源 財政 科技

climate and health.

氣候及健康而言 卻有著天壤之別

For example, our over-centralized grid

例如 過度集中管理的電網

is very vulnerable to cascading

只要連結一斷

and potentially economy-shattering blackouts

或是遇上足以粉碎整個經濟體的大停電 就會完全停擺

caused by bad space weather or other natural disasters

惡劣天氣 其他自然災害 甚至是恐怖攻擊

or a terrorist attack.

都有可能造成停電

But that blackout risk disappears,

但停電危機可以解除

and all of the other risks are best managed,

其他危機也能夠盡可能妥善控管

with distributed renewables

只要妥善運用再生能源

organized into local micro-grids that normally interconnect,

將其編入相互連結的地區性微電網

but can stand alone at need.

但必要時 也能獨立運作

That is, they can disconnect fractally

也就是說 內聯機制能夠各自切斷

and then reconnect seamlessly.

也能重新連結

That approach is exactly what the Pentagon is adopting

國防部目前就是採用這個方法

for its own power supply.

控管五角大廈的電力供應

They think they need that; how about the rest of us that they're defending?

他們認為有此必要 那受保護的我們呢

We want our stuff to work too.

希望我們的供電系統也能如此

At about the same cost as business as usual,

如同前面那些選項 此機制的營運成本也幾乎相同

this would maximize national security,

這麼做 能讓國家安全成效最佳

customer choice, entrepreneurial opportunity

讓消費者擁有最大的選擇權 提供企業最大的機會

and innovation.

也能讓革新達到最高峰

Together, efficient use and diverse dispersed renewable supply

總括來說 有效使用再生能源 增加各項資源的供應方式

are starting to transform the whole electricity sector.

正在改變整個電力供應系統

Traditionally utilities build

傳統公共事業

a lot of giant coal and nuclear plants

會建造許多燃煤電廠 核電廠

and a bunch of big gas plants

還有一些天然氣發電廠

and maybe a little bit of efficiency renewables.

也許 還有極少數是高效率的再生能源電廠

And those utilities were rewarded,

傳統公共事業仍受到獎勵

as they still are in 34 states,

34 州內都是如此

for selling you more electricity.

就因為它們能供應更多電力

However, especially where regulators

然而 尤其在管理者

are now instead rewarding cutting your bills,

鼓勵減少支出的地方

the investments are shifting radically

投資在再生能源電廠的金額反而急遽增加

toward efficiency, demand response, cogeneration,

投資集中在效能 需量反應 汽電共生

renewables and ways to knit them all together reliably

再生能源 及其串聯方法

with less transmission

不僅能減少傳輸耗損

and little or no bulk electricity storage.

也幾乎不需要大宗電力儲存機制

So our energy future is not fate, but choice,

我們使用能源的未來 並非命中注定 是可以選擇的

and that choice is very flexible.

而且選項的彈性也很大

In 1976, for example,

舉例來說 1976 年

government and industry insisted

政府與製造業堅持

that the amount of energy needed to make a dollar of GDP

維持國內生產毛額所需的能源量

could never go down.

不能減少

And I heretically suggested it could go down several-fold.

但我認為 就算減少好幾倍也沒關係

Well that's what's actually happened so far.

事實擺在眼前

It's fallen by half.

能源量已經減少了一半

But with today's much better technologies,

若能配合日新月異的科技

more mature delivery channels and integrative design,

更成熟的傳輸途徑 與整合設計

we can do far more and even cheaper.

我們就能做得更多 成本就壓得越低

So to solve the energy problem,

如果要解決能源問題

we just needed to enlarge it.

就把問題的範圍擴大

And the results may at first seem incredible,

也許成效一開始令人難以置信

but as Marshall McLuhan said,

但就像馬歇爾說的

"Only puny secrets need protection.

"只有微不足道的秘密 需要保護"

Big discoveries are protected by public incredulity."

"凡是驚人的大發現 都會受到公眾的懷疑"

Now combine the electricity and oil revolutions,

結合受到現代效能觀念驅動

both driven by modern efficiency,

而發展的電力與石油革新

and you get the really big story: reinventing fire,

就能抓到重點 重燃火源

where business enabled and sped by smart policies in mindful markets

明智的政策 能塑造 加速商業發展

can lead the United States completely off oil and coal by 2050,

能讓美國在 2050 年以前完全擺脫石油與燃煤

saving 5 trillion dollars,

省下五兆的開銷

growing the economy 2.6-fold,

使經濟體成長 2.6 倍

strengthening out national security,

強化國家安全

oh, and by the way, by getting rid of the oil and coal,

噢 對了 若能擺脫石油與燃煤

reducing the fossil carbon emissions by 82 to 86 percent.

就能將化石碳排放量 減少 82% 至 86%

Now if you like any of those outcomes,

上述的結果 你不需要全都喜歡

you can support reinventing fire

只要你覺得 其中一項聽起來還不錯

without needing to like all of them

就能支持重燃火源的行動

and without needing to agree about which of them is most important.

你也不需要認定 哪個選項最重要

So focusing on outcomes, not motives,

該注意的是結果 不是動機

can turn gridlock and conflict

把困境與衝突

into a unifying solution to America's energy challenge.

轉化成美國能源危機的共通解答

This also turns out to be the best way

而這也是因應全球危機的

to cope with global challenges --

最佳答案

climate change, nuclear proliferation,

像是氣候變遷 核擴散

energy insecurity, energy poverty --

能源危機 能源短缺

all of which make us less safe.

都讓我們更靠向危險邊境

Now our team at RMI helps smart companies

我們的 RMI 團隊 正積極幫助明智的公司

to get unstuck and speed this journey

脫離困境 加速轉換的過程

via six sectoral initiatives, with some more hatching.

主要藉由六方面的行動計畫 還有一些還在籌畫當中

Of course there's still a lot of old thinking out there too.

當然 外界還是有許多傳統觀念

Former oil man Maurice Strong said,

前石油大亨 莫里斯斯特朗 說過

"Not all the fossils are in the fuel."

"不是所有化石都在石油裡"

But as Edgar Woolard, who used to chair Dupont, reminds us,

但杜邦公司前總裁 埃德加伍拉德 也說過

"Companies hampered by old thinking won't be a problem

"被舊觀念阻礙的公司 不會是問題"

because," he said," they simply won't be around long-term."

"因為它們根本就不會長久"

I've described not just a once-in-a-civilization

這並不是 一個文明只會有一次的

business opportunity,

商業契機

but one of the most profound transitions

而是人類史上

in the history of our species.

最重大的轉變之一

We humans are inventing a new fire,

我們正著手研發新的火

not dug from below,

我們不往地底下挖

but flowing from above;

而是從地表之上取得

not scarce, but bountiful;

資源不少 而是很豐富

not local, but everywhere;

沒有地區性 而是四處可見

not transient, but permanent;

不是暫時應變 而是長久之計

not costly, but free.

不需要砸大錢 而是不費一毛

And but for a little transitional tail of natural gas

但不管是已經快用完的天然氣

and a bit of biofuel grown in ways that sustain and endure,

還是以各種方式持續永存的生質燃料

this new fire is flameless.

新的能源都很不一樣 不需要燃燒

Efficiently used, it really can do our work

若能有效運用 的確能幫助人類發展

without working our undoing.

而不導致毀滅

Each of you owns a piece of that $5 trillion prize.

每個人手上都握有 那五兆成果的一小部分

And our new book "Reinventing Fire"

我們的新書《重燃火源》

describes how you can capture it.

就說明了 該如何獲得那一小部分的成果

So with the conversation just begun

在演講一開始時

at ReinventingFire.com,

透過 ReinventingFire.com 這個網站

let me invite you each

我想邀請各位

to engage with us and with each other, with everyone around you,

與我們 與各位 與身邊的每一個人一起努力

to help make the world richer, fairer,

讓這個世界變得更富饒 更公平

cooler and safer

更涼爽 更安全

by together reinventing fire.

只要我們一起努力 重燃火源

Thank you.

謝謝

(Applause)

(掌聲)