Amory Lovins: A 40-year plan for energy

141,598 views ใƒป 2012-05-01

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

00:00
Translator: Jenny Zurawell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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๋ฒˆ์—ญ: K Bang ๊ฒ€ํ† : Woo Hwang
00:15
America's public energy conversation
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ณต๊ณต์—๋„ˆ์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋…ผ์˜๋Š”
00:17
boils down to this question:
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์ด ์งˆ๋ฌธ์œผ๋กœ ์š”์•ฝ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:
00:19
Would you rather die of A) oil wars,
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ A) ์›์œ  ์ „์Ÿ์œผ๋กœ ์ฃฝ๋Š”๊ฒŒ ๋‚ซ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ,
00:23
or B) climate change,
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด B) ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™”๋กœ,
00:25
or C) nuclear holocaust,
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด C) ํ•ต๋ฌธ์ œ๋กœ,
00:27
or D) all of the above?
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด D) ์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ฃฝ์Œ์„ ๋งž๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
00:30
Oh, I missed one: or E) none of the above?
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์•„, ํ•œ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋นผ๋จน์—ˆ๊ตฐ์š”: ํ˜น์€ E) ํ•ด๋‹น์‚ฌํ•ญ์—†์Œ ์ธ๊ฐ€์š”?
00:33
That's the one we're not normally offered.
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์ด๊ฑด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ํ‰์†Œ์—๋Š” ์ž˜ ์ฃผ์–ด์ง€์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์„ ํƒ์ด์ฃ .
00:35
What if we could make energy do our work
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์Šค์Šค๋กœ๋ฅผ ํŒŒ๊ดดํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด์„œ
00:37
without working our undoing?
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ผ์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์–ด๋–จ๊นŒ์š”?
00:40
Could we have fuel without fear?
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๊ฑฑ์ •์—†์ด ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์งˆ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
00:42
Could we reinvent fire?
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๋ถˆ์„ ์žฌ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
00:44
You see, fire made us human;
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์•„์‹คํ…Œ์ง€๋งŒ, ๋ถˆ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ธ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์–ด์š”;
00:46
fossil fuels made us modern.
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ํ™”์„์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ํ˜„๋Œ€ํ™”์‹œ์ผฐ์ฃ .
00:48
But now we need a new fire
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด์ œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ถˆ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:49
that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์•ˆ์ „ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ง€์ผœ์ฃผ๊ณ , ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ง€์†์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ถˆ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:53
Let's see how.
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ์ง€ ๋ณด์‹œ์ฃ .
00:55
Four-fifths of the world's energy
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์ „์„ธ๊ณ„ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์˜ 4/5๋Š”
00:58
still comes from burning each year
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์•„์ง๋„ ๋งค๋…„
01:00
four cubic miles of the rotted remains
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์›์‹œ ๋Šช์ง€๋Œ€์— ๋‚จ์€ ๋ฌผ์งˆ์ด ์ฉ์–ด์„œ ๋งŒ๋“  ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ
01:03
of primeval swamp goo.
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4 ์ž…๋ฐฉ๋งˆ์ผ ๋งŒํผ์„ ์—ฐ์†Œ์‹œ์ผœ์„œ ์–ป์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:06
Those fossil fuels
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ํ™”์„์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋“ค์€
01:08
have built our civilization.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ฌธ๋ช…์„ ์ผ์œผ์ผฐ์ฃ .
01:11
They've created our wealth.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ถ€๋ฅผ ์ฐฝ์กฐํ•ด๋‚ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ–ˆ๊ณ ์š”.
01:13
They've enriched the lives of billions.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋“ค์€ ์ˆ˜์‹ญ์–ต๋ช…์˜ ์‚ถ์„ ์œคํƒํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:15
But they also have rising costs
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ํ™”์„์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋“ค์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์•ˆ์ „, ๊ฒฝ์ œ, ๊ฑด๊ฐ•๊ณผ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ
01:17
to our security, economy, health and environment
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๋น„์šฉ์„ ์ƒ์Šน์‹œ์ผฐ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”,
01:22
that are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.
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๊ทธ ํšจ์šฉ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ฅผ, ์•„์ง ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค ํ•ด๋„, ์ด๋ฏธ ์ƒ์‡„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:25
So we need a new fire.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ถˆ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:27
And switching from the old fire to the new fire
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์˜ˆ์ „์˜ ๋ถˆ์„ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ถˆ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊พผ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
01:30
means changing two big stories about oil and electricity,
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์„์œ ์™€ ์ „๊ธฐ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ํฐ ์ค„๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊พผ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ์š”,
01:34
each of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.
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์„์œ ์™€ ์ „๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ฐ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ํƒ„์†Œ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์˜ 2/5 ์”ฉ์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:39
But they're really quite distinct.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ์ •๋ง๋กœ ๊ฝค ํŠน๋ณ„ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:41
Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil --
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์ „๋ ฅ์˜ 1ํผ์„ผํŠธ ์ดํ•˜๋Š” ์„์œ ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์–ป์–ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค --
01:44
although almost half is made from coal.
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์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์€ ์„ํƒ„์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์–ป์–ด์ง€์ง€๋งŒ์š”.
01:48
Their uses are quite concentrated.
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๊ทธ ์šฉ๋„๋Š” ๊ฝค ์ง‘์ค‘๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:50
Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.
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์„์œ  ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ์˜ 3/4 ์€ ์šด์†ก์ˆ˜๋‹จ์— ์“ฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
01:53
Three-fourths of our electricity powers buildings.
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์ „๊ธฐ์˜ 3/4 ์€ ๊ฑด๋ฌผ์— ์“ฐ์ด๊ณ ์š”.
01:56
And the rest of both runs factories.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์˜ ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€๋Š” ๊ณต์žฅ์„ ์šด์˜ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์“ฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:58
So very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šด์†ก์ˆ˜๋‹จ๋“ค, ๊ฑด๋ฌผ๋“ค๊ณผ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ค๋น„๊ฐ€ ๋งค์šฐ ํšจ์œจ์ ์ด ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
02:01
save oil and coal,
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์„์œ ๋‚˜ ์„ํƒ„,
02:03
and also natural gas that can displace both of them.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ๋ชจ๋‘๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์ฒดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ฒœ์—ฐ๊ฐ€์Šค๋ฅผ ๋œ ์†Œ๋น„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:07
But today's energy system is not just inefficient,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ ์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์ฒด๊ณ„๋Š” ๋น„ํšจ์œจ์ ์ผ ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ,
02:10
it is also disconnected,
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์—ฐ๊ณ„์„ฑ์„ ์žƒ์—ˆ๊ณ ,
02:12
aging, dirty and insecure.
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๋‚ก์•˜๊ณ , ์ฒญ๊ฒฐํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ , ๋ถˆ์•ˆ์ •ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:15
So it needs refurbishment.
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์žฌ์ •๋น„๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:18
By 2050 though, it could become efficient,
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2050๋…„์ด ๋˜๋ฉด ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์šฐ์•„ํ•  ์ •๋„๋กœ ๊ฐ„์†Œํ•˜๊ฒŒ
02:21
connected and distributed
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ํšจ์œจ์ ์ด๋ฉฐ,
02:24
with elegantly frugal
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์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋„๋ฆฌ ์ œ๊ณต๋ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:26
autos, factories and buildings
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์ž๋™์ฐจ, ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ค๋น„ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ฑด๋ฌผ,
02:28
all relying on a modern, secure
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๊ทธ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ˜„๋Œ€์ ์ด๊ณ  ์•ˆ์ „ํ•˜๋ฉฐ
02:31
and resilient electricity system.
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ํšŒ๋ณต๋ ฅ์ด ๋›ฐ์–ด๋‚œ ์ „๊ธฐ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์— ์˜์กดํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:33
We can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050
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2050๋…„ ๊นŒ์ง€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์„์œ ์™€ ์„ํƒ„์— ๋”์ด์ƒ ๋งค๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ ๋„
02:39
and use one-third less natural gas
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์ฒœ์—ฐ๊ฐ€์Šค๋Š” 1/3 ๋งŒํผ์„ ๋œ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
02:42
while switching to efficient use
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ํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๊ณผ
02:45
and renewable supply.
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์žฌํ™œ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์œผ๋กœ์˜ ์ „ํ™˜์„ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
02:47
This could cost, by 2050,
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2050๋…„๊นŒ์ง€, ์ด๊ฒƒ์€,
02:51
five trillion dollars less in net present value,
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ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜ ์ด์•ก์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ผ ๋•Œ,
02:54
that is expressed as a lump sum today,
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์ด์•ก 5์กฐ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
02:57
than business as usual --
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ํ˜„์žฌ์— ๋น„ํ•ด์„œ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. --
02:58
assuming that carbon emissions
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ํƒ„์†Œ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๊ณผ ๊ทธ์™ธ ์ˆจ๊ฒจ์ง„ ํ˜น์€ ์™ธ๋ถ€์˜ ๋น„์šฉ์ด
03:00
and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero --
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์ „ํ˜€ ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์ด์ฃ  --
03:03
a conservatively low estimate.
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๋ณด์ˆ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ์žก์€ ์ถ”์ •๊ฐ’ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:07
Yet this cheaper energy system
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ €๋ ดํ•œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด
03:09
could support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy
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์„์œ ๋‚˜ ์„ํƒ„, ํ˜น์€ ์ด์— ๊ด€ํ•œํ•œ ํ•ต์—๋„ˆ์ง€์—
03:13
all without needing oil or coal,
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์˜์กดํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ ๋„
03:15
or for that matter nuclear energy.
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ํ˜„์žฌ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๊ฐ€ 158% ๋งŒํผ ๋˜์–ด๋„ ์ง€ํƒฑํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:17
Moreover, this transition needs no new inventions
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๋” ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€, ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ „ํ™˜์€ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ฐœ๋ช…๊ณผ
03:20
and no acts of Congress
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์˜ํšŒ์˜ ๋ฒ•์•ˆ๋„ ํ•„์š”์—†๊ณ 
03:24
and no new federal taxes, mandate subsidies or laws
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ์„ธ๊ธˆ, ์˜๋ฌด์ ์ธ ๋ณด์กฐ๊ธˆ ํ˜น์€ ๋ฒ•๋„ ํ•„์š”์—†์œผ๋ฉฐ
03:28
and running Washington gridlock.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ •์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋…ผ๋ž€์œผ๋กœ ๊ต์ฐฉ ์ƒํƒœ์— ๋น ์งˆ ํ•„์š”๋„ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:31
Let me say that again.
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๋‹ค์‹œ ์ •๋ฆฌํ•ด๋ณด์ฃ 
03:32
I'm going to tell you how to get the United States
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์ €๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ 5์กฐ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์•„๋ผ๋ฉด์„œ
03:35
completely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper
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์„์œ ์™€ ์„ํƒ„์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ž์œ ๋กœ์›Œ ์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€
03:38
with no act of Congress
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์˜ํšŒ์˜ ๋ฒ•์•ˆ์ด ์—†์ด, ์ด์ต์ฐฝ์ถœ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ
03:40
led by business for profit.
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๋ฏผ๊ฐ„์‚ฌ์—…์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ฃผ๋„๋˜๋Š” ๊ณผ์ •์„ ๋งํ•ด๋ณด๋ ค ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:42
In other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions --
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•˜๋ฉด, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ธ ๋‹จ์ฒด๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.--
03:46
private enterprise co-evolving with civil society
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ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋น„ํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ๋‹จ์ฒด๋ฅผ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚˜
03:49
and sped by military innovation
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์‹œ๋ฏผ์‚ฌํšŒ์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ง„ํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ 
03:52
to go around our least effective institutions.
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๊ตฐ๋Œ€์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ํ˜์‹ ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋น ๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๊ธฐ์—…์ด์ฃ .
03:55
And whether you care most
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์ด์œค์ด๋‚˜, ์ทจ์—…, ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์  ์šฐ์œ„๋ผ๋“ ๊ฐ€
03:57
about profits and jobs and competitive advantage
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๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฉ์œ„, ํ˜น์€ ์ž์—ฐ๋ณดํ˜ธ์˜ ์ฒจ๋ณ‘์ด ๋˜๋Š” ์ผ,
04:01
or national security, or environmental stewardship
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๊ธฐํ›„ ๋ณดํ˜ธ์™€ ๊ณต๊ณต ์˜๋ฃŒ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ์—
04:03
and climate protection and public health,
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์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹คํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„
04:05
reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ถˆ์„ ์ฐพ์•„๋‚ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์˜๋ฏธ๋„ ์žˆ๊ณ  ๋ˆ๋„ ๋ฒŒ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:09
General Eisenhower reputedly said
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์•„์ด์  ํ•˜์›Œ ์žฅ๊ตฐ์ด ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜์ฃ ..
04:13
that enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem
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ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ค์šด ๋ฌธ์ œ์˜ ๋ฒ”์œ„๋ฅผ ๋” ํฌ๊ฒŒํ•˜๋ฉด
04:15
makes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies.
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๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์„ ํƒ์ง€์™€ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์ƒ์Šน ์ž‘์šฉ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ด์ง„๋‹ค.
04:20
So in reinventing fire,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ถˆ์„ ์ฐพ์•„๋‚ด๋Š”๋ฐ ์žˆ์–ด์„œ,
04:22
we integrated all four sectors that use energy --
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋„ค ๋ถ„์•ผ๋ฅผ ๋ชจ๋‘ ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•ด ๋ดค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:25
transportation, buildings, industry and electricity --
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์šด์†ก, ๊ฑด๋ฌผ, ์‚ฐ์—…,๊ณผ ์ „๊ธฐ์ฃ  --
04:29
and we integrated four kinds of innovation,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ ๋Š” ๋„ค ๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ํ˜์‹์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋”ํ•ด ๋ดค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:31
not just technology and policy,
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๊ทธ์ € ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด๋‚˜ ์ •์ฑ…๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
04:34
but also design and business strategy.
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๋””์ž์ธ๊ณผ ์‚ฌ์—… ์ „๋žต๊นŒ์ง€์š”.
04:37
Those combinations yield
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด
04:39
very much more than the sum of the parts,
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๊ฐ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์ดํ•ฉ๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:41
especially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.
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ํŠนํžˆ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์–ด๋ ค์›Œ ๋ณด์ด๊ณค ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ์—… ๊ธฐํšŒ์˜ ์ฐฝ์ถœ๋ฉด์—์„œ๋„ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:46
Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,
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์„์œ ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์— ๋งค์ผ 20์–ต๋ถˆ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋น„์šฉ์ด ๋“ค๊ฒŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:50
plus another four billion dollars a day
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๊ฒŒ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€ ํ•˜๋ฃจ์— 40์–ต๋ถˆ์„ ๋”ํ•ด ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:53
in hidden economic and military costs,
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๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด์ด์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์ˆจ๊ฒจ์ง„ ๋น„์šฉ์ด๋‚˜ ์•ˆ๋ณด ๋น„์šฉ์œผ๋กœ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
04:55
raising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ ์ดํ•ฉ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ด์ƒ์‚ฐ(GDP)์˜ 1/6 ๊นŒ์ง€ ์˜ฌ๋ผ๊ฐ‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:59
Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ฐ€์šฉ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋Š” 3/5์„ ์ž๋™์ฐจ์— ์“ฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:02
So let's start by making autos oil free.
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์ž.. ์„์œ ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”์—†๋Š” ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด์ฃ .
05:04
Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car
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ํ‰๊ท ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž๋™์ฐจ์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€๋Š” ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์˜ 2/3 ๊ฐ€
05:08
is caused by its weight.
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์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ๋ฌด๊ฒŒ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์†์‹ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:10
And every unit of energy you save at the wheels,
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์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ๋ฌด๊ฒŒ๋ฅผ ์ค„์—ฌ์„œ
05:13
by taking out weight or drag,
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์ž๋™์ฐจ์—์„œ 1 ๋‹จ์œ„์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
05:15
saves seven units in the tank,
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๋ชจ๋‘ ์ผ๊ณฑ ๋‹จ์œ„์˜ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ 
05:17
because you don't have to waste six units
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ž๋™์ฐจ์— ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋„ฃ์„ ๋•Œ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ—ˆ๋น„ํ•˜๋Š”
05:18
getting the energy to the wheels.
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6 ๋‹จ์œ„์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์—์š”.
05:20
Unfortunately, over the past quarter century,
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๋ถˆํ–‰ํžˆ๋„ ์ง€๋‚œ 25๋…„๊ฐ„
05:24
epidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars
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๋Š˜์ƒ ์ ‘ํ•˜๋Š” ๋น„๋งŒ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด์„œ 2ํ†ค์งœ๋ฆฌ ์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ๋ฌด๊ฒŒ๋Š”
05:27
gain weight twice as fast as we have.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ž์‹ ๋ณด๋‹ค 2๋ฐฐ๋‚˜ ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๋ฌด๊ฑฐ์›Œ์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:31
But today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ํƒ„์†Œํ•ฉ์„ฑ ํ™”ํ•ฉ ์žฌ๋ฃŒ๊ฐ™์€
05:34
like carbon fiber composites,
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์ดˆ๊ฒฝ๋Ÿ‰, ์ดˆ๊ฐ•๋„ ์žฌ๋ฃŒ ๋•๋ถ„์—
05:37
can make dramatic weight savings snowball
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์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ๋ฌด๊ฒŒ๋ฅผ ๋†€๋ผ์šธ ์ •๋„๋กœ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ณ 
05:39
and can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.
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๊ทธ ๋•์— ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋„ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•˜๊ณ  ์ €๋ ดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:43
Lighter and more slippery autos
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๊ฐ€๋ณ๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๋„๋Ÿฌ์ง€๋“ฏ ์ž˜ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋Š”
05:45
need less force to move them,
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์›€์ง์ด๋Š”๋ฐ ํž˜๋„ ๋œ๋“ค์–ด์„œ
05:48
so their engines get smaller.
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์—”์ง„๋„ ๋” ์ž‘์•„์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:50
Indeed, that sort of vehicle fitness
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์ž๋™์ฐจ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€๋ฒผ์›Œ์ง€๋ฉด์„œ
05:53
then makes electric propulsion affordable
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๋น„์šฉ๋ฉด์—์„œ ๋ณผ ๋•Œ ์ „๊ธฐ ์ถ”์ง„ ๋ฐฉ์‹๋„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:56
because the batteries or fuel cells
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ™์€ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ๋„
05:59
also get smaller and lighter and cheaper.
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๋” ์ž‘๊ณ  ๊ฐ€๋ฒผ์›Œ์ง€๊ณ  ๊ฐ’๋„ ์‹ธ์ง€๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
06:03
So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today,
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๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ๋„ ํ˜„์žฌ์™€ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๋‹ค๋ฅด์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒŒ ๋˜๊ฒ ์ฃ .
06:07
while the driving cost, even from the start,
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๋™์‹œ์— ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๋Š”๋ฐ ๋“œ๋Š” ๋น„์šฉ์€, ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์ฒ˜์Œ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ๋•Œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ,
06:10
is very much lower.
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ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ์ค„์–ด๋“ค๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:12
So these innovations together can transform automakers
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ˜์‹์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•˜๋ฉด
06:16
from wringing tiny savings
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๋น…ํ† ๋ฆฌ์•„ ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ํฐ ์—”์ง„์— ์ •๊ตํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ์ ์šฉํ•ด์„œ
06:18
out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies
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์ฅ์–ด์งœ๋“ฏ ์–ป๊ฒŒ๋˜๋Š” ์•ฝ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ ˆ์•ฝ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ• ๋Œ€์‹ 
06:22
to the steeply falling costs
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์„œ๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน์ž‘์šฉ์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ์„ธ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์—ฐ๊ด€๋œ ํ˜์‹ ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด
06:24
of three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other --
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์ˆœ์‹๊ฐ„์— ๋น„์šฉ์„ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ฃ  --
06:30
namely ultralight materials, making them into structures
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์ฆ‰, ์ดˆ๊ฒฝ๋Ÿ‰ ์žฌ์งˆ, ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“  ์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ๊ณจ๊ฒฉ,
06:33
and electric propulsion.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ „๊ธฐ ์ถ”์ง„์œผ๋กœ ์š”์•ฝ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:36
The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster
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ํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ์‹ ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ์—
06:40
with temporary feebates,
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๋น„ํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ์ž๋™์ฐจ์— ํ—ˆ๋น„ํ–ˆ๋˜
06:42
that is rebates for efficient new autos
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์•ฝ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋น„์šฉ๋งŒ ๋“ค์ด๋ฉด
06:44
paid for by fees on inefficient ones.
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์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ํŒ๋งค๋Š” ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ๋–จ์–ด์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:48
And just in the first two years
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์ฒซ 2๋…„๋™์•ˆ์—
06:50
the biggest of Europe's five feebate programs
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์œ ๋Ÿฝ์˜ 5๊ฐœ ๋น„์šฉ ์ ˆ์•ฝ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์ค‘ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์—์„œ
06:54
has tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency.
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์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ํšจ์œจ์„ 3๋ฐฐ ๋Š˜์ด๋Š”๋ฐ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:58
The resulting shift to electric autos
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๊ธฐ ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋กœ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š”
07:01
is going to be as game-changing
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ํƒ€์ž๊ธฐ์—์„œ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋กœ ์ง„ํ™”ํ•  ๋•Œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
07:03
as shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers.
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๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ˜์ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด ์งˆ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:07
Of course, computers and electronics
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ์™€ ์ „์ž๊ธฐ๊ธฐ๋Š”
07:09
are now America's biggest industry,
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ํ˜„์žฌ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ตœ๋Œ€์˜ ์‚ฐ์—…์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:11
while typewriter makers have vanished.
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๋ฐ˜๋ฉด์— ํƒ€์ž๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ž๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง€๊ณ  ๋ง์•˜์ฃ .
07:14
So vehicle fitness
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ํšจ์œจํ™”๋Š”
07:15
opens a new automotive competitive strategy
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์ดํ›„ 40๋…„๊ฐ„ ์„์œ  ์ ˆ์•ฝ์„ 2๋ฐฐ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”
07:19
that can double the oil savings over the next 40 years,
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ์ „๋žต์„ ํƒ„์ƒ์‹œ์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:22
but then also make electrification affordable,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋น„์šฉ๋ฉด์—์„œ ์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ์ „๊ธฐํ™”๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์ฃผ์—ˆ๊ณ 
07:25
and that displaces the rest of the oil.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ „๊ธฐํ™”๋Š” ์„์œ ์˜ ์—ญํ• ์„ ๋Œ€์‹ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:29
America could lead this next automotive revolution.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ฐจ์„ธ๋Œ€ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ํ˜๋ช…์„ ์ฃผ๋„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:33
Currently the leader is Germany.
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ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ทธ ์„ ๋„์ž์˜ ์œ„์น˜๋Š” ๋…์ผ์ด ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:35
Last year, Volkswagen announced
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์ง€๋‚œํ•ด ํญ์Šค๋ฐ”๊ฒ์€ ๋‚ด๋…„๊นŒ์ง€
07:38
that by next year they'll be producing
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3.3๋ฆฌํ„ฐ๋กœ 360ํ‚ฌ๋กœ๋ฏธํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆด์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”
07:40
this carbon fiber plugin hybrid
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ํƒ„์†Œ ์„ฌ์œ ์žฌ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•œ ํ•˜์ด๋ธŒ๋ฆฌ๋“œ ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋ฅผ
07:43
getting 230 miles a gallon.
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์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๊ฒ ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:45
Also last year, BMW announced
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BMW๋„ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ํƒ„์†Œ์„ฌ์œ ์žฌ ์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜
07:48
this carbon fiber electric car,
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์ถœ์‹œ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”
07:50
they said that its carbon fiber is paid for
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ๋ง์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ํƒ„์†Œ์„ฌ์œ ์žฌ์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ๋ณด๋‹ค ์ ์€ ์–‘์˜ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
07:52
by needing fewer batteries.
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์ง€๋ถˆํ• ๋งŒํ•œ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:54
And they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker."
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. "์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํƒ€์ž๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ž๊ฐ€ ๋˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค."
07:57
Audi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.
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์•„์šฐ๋””๋Š” 1๋…„์ด๋ฉด ๊ทธ๋“ค์„ ์ด๊ธธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ฃผ์žฅํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.
08:00
Seven years ago, an even faster and cheaper
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7๋…„์ „์— ์ด๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ณ  ๊ฐ’์‹ผ
08:03
American manufacturing technology
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์€
08:06
was used to make this little carbon fiber test part,
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์ด ํ•˜์ž˜๊ฒƒ์—†๋Š” ํƒ„์†Œ ์„ฌ์œ ๋กœ ์‹คํ—˜์  ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:13
which doubles as a carbon cap.
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๊ทธ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ํƒ„์†Œ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์€ 2๋ฐฐ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:16
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
08:17
In one minute -- and you can tell from the sound
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1๋ถ„์ด๋ฉด -- ์†Œ๋ฆฌ๋งŒ ๋“ค์–ด๋„ ์•„์‹œ๊ฒ ์ฃ ?
08:20
how immensely stiff and strong it is.
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์ด ์žฌ์งˆ์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ตณ์€์ง€ ์•Œ๊ฒŒ ๋˜์‹ค๊ฑฐ์—์š”.
08:23
Don't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium.
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๋–จ์–ด๋œจ๋ฆฌ๋Š”๊ฑธ ๊ฒ๋‚ผ ํ•„์š”๋„ ์—†์–ด์š”, ํ‹ฐํƒ€๋Š„๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ๊ฐ•ํ•˜๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
08:27
Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ํ†ฐ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋“œ๋งŒ์ด ์ปค๋‹ค๋ž€ ํ•ด๋จธ๋กœ ์žˆ๋Š” ํž˜๊ป ๋‚ด๋ ค ์ณ๋ดค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:29
without even scuffing it.
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์ž๊ตญ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ๋‚จ๊ธฐ์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:30
But such manufacturing techniques
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ๋ฐœ์ „์€
08:32
can scale to automotive speed and cost
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๋น„ํ–‰๊ธฐ์˜ ๋ฐœ์ „ ์†๋„์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ
08:36
with aerospace performance.
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์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ์†๋„ ๊ฐœ์„ ๊ณผ ๋น„์šฉ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ์ผ์œผํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
08:37
They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.
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์ƒ์‚ฐ์ž๋Š” ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ๋“œ๋Š” ๋น„์šฉ์˜ 4/5๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:41
They can save lives
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์ด ์žฌ์งˆ์€
08:42
because this stuff can absorb
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์ถฉ๋Œ์‹œ ๊ธˆ์† ์žฌ์งˆ์— ๋น„ํ•ด 12๋ฐฐ๋‚˜ ๋˜๋Š” ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์— ๊ฒฌ๋”œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
08:43
up to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ์˜ ์ƒ๋ช…์„ ๊ตฌํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:46
If we made all of our autos this way,
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์„ธ์ƒ์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
08:48
it would save oil equivalent to finding
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฌ์šฐ๋”” ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋น„์•„์˜ 1.5๋ฐฐ, ๋˜๋Š” OPEC ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์˜ ๋ฐ˜์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•˜๋Š”
08:51
one and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC,
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์œ ์ „์„ ์ƒˆ๋กœ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ํšจ๊ณผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:54
by drilling in the Detroit formation, a very prospective play.
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋””ํŠธ๋กœ์ดํŠธ์˜ ์‚ฐ์—… ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ๋งค์šฐ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์ง€ํ–ฅ์ ์ธ ์œ ์ „์„ ์ฑ„๊ตดํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์•„์š”.
08:58
And all those mega-barrels under Detroit
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๋””ํŠธ๋กœ์ดํŠธ์—์„œ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ์ด ์›์œ  ์ˆ˜๋ฐฑ๋งŒ ๋ฐฐ๋Ÿด ๋ถ„๋Ÿ‰์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋Š”
09:01
cost an average of 18 bucks a barrel.
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๋ฐฐ๋Ÿด๋‹น ํ‰๊ท  18๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ •๋„์˜ ๋น„์šฉ์ด ๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค..
09:04
They are all-American, carbon-free
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์ด ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋Š” ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ œํ’ˆ์ด๊ณ , ํƒ„์†Œ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ์ด ์—†๊ณ 
09:05
and inexhaustible.
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๋ฌดํ•œํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜์ฃ .
09:08
The same physics and the same business logic
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๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ์›๋ฆฌ์™€ ์‚ฌ์—…์  ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
09:10
also apply to big vehicles.
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๋Œ€ํ˜• ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์—๋„ ์ ์šฉ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:12
In the five years ending with 2010,
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2010๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ 5๋…„ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„๋™์•ˆ
09:15
Walmart saved 60 percent of the fuel per ton-mile
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์›”๋งˆํŠธ๋Š” ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ์œ ํ†ต ๊ฒฝ๋กœ์™€ ๋””์ž์ธ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด
09:19
in its giant fleet of heavy trucks
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋ณด์œ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ์œ ํ†ต์šฉ ๋Œ€ํ˜• ํŠธ๋Ÿญ ์šด์šฉ์—์„œ
09:21
through better logistics and design.
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ํ†ค-๋งˆ์ผ๋‹น 60%์˜ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:22
But just the technological savings in heavy trucks
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๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ๋Œ€ํ˜• ํŠธ๋Ÿญ์˜ ์šด์šฉ์ƒ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ ์ธ ์ ˆ์•ฝ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ
09:25
can get to two-thirds.
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2/3 ๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
09:27
And combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes,
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3๋ฐฐ๋‚ด์ง€ 5๋ฐฐ์— ์ด๋ฅด๋Š” ๋น„ํ–‰๊ธฐ์˜ ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ ์ œ๊ณ ์™€ ๋”๋ถˆ์–ด
09:30
now on the drawing board,
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๊ณ„ํš ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
09:32
can save close to a trillion dollars.
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์ˆ˜ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ๋ˆ์„ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:34
Also today's military revolution in energy efficiency
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๊ฒŒ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํšจ์œจ๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จํ•ด์„œ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ๊ตฐ๋Œ€์—์„œ์˜ ํ˜๋ช…์€
09:39
is going to speed up all of these civilian advances
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๊ตฐ๋Œ€์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์ง„์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ
09:42
in much the same way that military R&D
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์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท, GPS, ์ œํŠธ์—”์ง„, ๋งˆ์ดํฌ๋กœ์นฉ ์‚ฐ์—…์„
09:44
has given us the Internet, the Global Positioning System
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์ œ๊ณตํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ
09:47
and the jet engine and microchip industries.
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๋ฏผ๊ฐ„์—์„œ์˜ ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ๋„๋ชจํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:50
As we design and build vehicles better,
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์ž๋™์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๋” ํšจ์œจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋””์ž์ธํ•˜๊ณ  ๋งŒ๋“ฌ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ,
09:54
we can also use them smarter
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ๋ถˆํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์‚ฌ์šฉ์„ ์ค„์ด๋Š”๋ฐ
09:56
by harnessing four powerful techniques
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๋„ค๊ฐ€์ง€ ์œ ์šฉํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๋ณตํ•จ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ
09:58
for eliminating needless driving.
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์ž๋™์ฐจ๋ฅผ ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ์˜๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:00
Instead of just seeing the travel grow,
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๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ์—ฌํ–‰ ์‚ฐ์—…์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์ด๋ฃจ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
10:03
we can use innovative pricing,
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์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ์˜ ์–‘์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋น„์šฉ ๋Œ€์‹ , ๋„๋กœ๋ฅผ ์ฃผํ–‰ํ•œ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋น„์šฉ์„ ์‚ฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์˜
10:06
charging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.
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ํ˜์‹ ์ ์ธ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์‚ฐ์ • ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ฆ๊ธธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:10
We can use some smart IT to enhance transit
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋™ ๋ฐฉ์‹์„ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ๊ณต์œ ๋‚˜ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ํƒ€๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋„๋ก
10:13
and enable car sharing and ride sharing.
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์Šค๋งˆํŠธ IT ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:16
We can allow smart and lucrative growth models
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์Šค๋งˆํŠธํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ฒฝ์ œ์„ฑ์žˆ๋Š” ์„ฑ์žฅ ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์—ฌ
10:21
that help people already be near where they want to be,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜๋Š” ์ง€์—ญ ๋ถ€๊ทผ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ
10:25
so they don't need to go somewhere else.
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์ง์ ‘ ์›€์ง์ผ ํ•„์š”๋ฅผ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:26
And we can use smart IT
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๋˜ํ•œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์Šค๋งˆํŠธ IT ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ
10:28
to make traffic free-flowing.
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๊ตํ†ต ํ๋ฆ„์ด ๋ง‰ํž˜์—†์ด ํ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ๋„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:31
Together, those things can give us the same or better access
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์ข…ํ•ฉํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด, ์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ง€๊ธˆํ•˜๊ณ  ๋น„์Šทํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ์ ‘๊ทผ์„ฑ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋ฉด์„œ๋„
10:34
with 46 to 84 percent less driving,
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46% ์—์„œ 84% ์ •๋„ ๋œ ์šด์ „ํ•˜๊ณ 
10:38
saving another 0.4 trillion dollars,
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4์ฒœ์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ
10:41
plus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.
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๊ฒŒ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ํŠธ๋Ÿญ์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์  ์š”์†Œ์— ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ 3์ฒœ์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์˜ ์ด๋“์ด ์ƒ๊น๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:46
So 40 years hence, when you add it all up,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ 40๋…„ ํ›„์— ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•ฉํ•˜๋ฉด
10:49
a far more mobile U.S. economy
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ํ™œ๋™์ ์ด๋ฉด์„œ๋„
10:52
can use no oil.
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์„์œ ๋ฅผ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:54
Saving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks
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๋ฐฐ๋Ÿด๋‹น 100 ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋„˜๊ฒŒ ์ฃผ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ๋Š๋‹ˆ
10:57
rather than buying them for over a hundred,
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25๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๊ตฌ์ž…ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋Œ€์ฒด ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ
10:59
adds up to a $4 trillion net saving
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์ด 4์กฐ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์ ˆ์•ฝ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:02
counting all the hidden costs at zero.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ˆจ์€ ๋น„์šฉ์€ 0 ์œผ๋กœ ๋‘๊ณ ๋„ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
11:05
So to get mobility without oil,
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์„์œ ์—†์ด๋„ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์˜ ์—ญ๋™์„ฑ์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜์—ฌ
11:08
to phase out the oil,
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์„์œ ๋ฅผ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ํ‡ด์ถœ์‹œํ‚ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ
11:10
we can get efficient and then switch fuels.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ์—” ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊พธ์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:14
Those 125 to 240 mile-per-gallon-equivalent autos
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๊ฐค๋ก (3.3๋ฆฌํ„ฐ)๋‹น 200 ์—์„œ 380 ํ‚ฌ๋กœ๋ฏธํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋Š”
11:18
can use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells,
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์ˆ˜์†Œ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ ํ™”ํ•ฉ๋ฌผ์ด๋‚˜ ์ „๊ธฐ,
11:22
electricity and advanced biofuels.
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์ตœ์‹ ์˜ ๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ณตํ•ฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:25
The trucks and planes can realistically use
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ํŠธ๋Ÿญ์ด๋‚˜ ๋น„ํ–‰๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ
11:29
hydrogen or advanced biofuels.
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์ˆ˜์†Œ๋‚˜ ๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
11:32
The trucks could even use natural gas.
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ํŠธ๋Ÿญ์—๋Š” ์ฒœ์—ฐ๊ฐ€์Šค๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์ฃ .
11:34
But no vehicles will need oil.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์–ด๋–ค ์ž๋™์ฐจ์—๋„ ํœ˜๋ฐœ์œ ๋ฅผ ์“ฐ์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์•„๋„ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:36
And the most biofuel we might need,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”๋กœ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋Š”
11:39
just three million barrels a day,
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ํ•˜๋ฃจ์— 3๋ฐฑ๋งŒ ๋ฒ ๋Ÿด ์ •๋„์ธ๋ฐ์š”
11:41
can be made two-thirds from waste
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒฝ์ž‘์ง€๋ฅผ ์—†์• ์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ ๋„
11:42
without displacing any cropland
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2/3 ์ •๋„๋Š” ์“ฐ๋ ˆ๊ธฐ์—์„œ ์ถ”์ถœํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:44
and without harming soil or climate.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ํ† ์–‘์„ ์˜ค์—ผ์‹œํ‚ค๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๊ธฐํ›„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์•…์˜ํ–ฅ๋„ ๊ฑฑ์ •ํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์—†์–ด์š”.
11:47
Our team speeds up these kinds of oil savings
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ํŒ€์—์„œ๋Š” ์†Œ์œ„ "์ง‘๋‹จ์  ์นจ์ˆ ๋ฒ•"์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ
11:49
by what we call "institutional acupuncture."
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์œ„์— ๋งํ•œ ์„ธ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์„์œ  ์ ˆ์•ฝ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:52
We figure out where the business logic
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‚ฌ์—… ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋””์—์„œ ๋ณต์žกํ•ด์ง€๊ณ 
11:53
is congested and not flowing properly,
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๋ง‰ํžˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋‚ด์–ด,
11:56
we stick little needles in it to get it flowing,
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๊ทธ ํ๋ฆ„์ด ์›ํ™œํ•ด์ง€๋„๋ก ์ž‘์€ ์นจ์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:58
working with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ํฌ๋“œ์‚ฌ, ์›”๋งˆํŠธ, ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ์„ฑ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ์ฒด์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:00
And the long transition is already well under way.
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๊ทธ ๊ธด ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ์ „๊ฐœ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
12:04
In fact, three years ago mainstream analysts were starting to see peak oil,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค, ์ด๋ฏธ 3๋…„์ „์— ์ฃผ์š” ๋ถ„์„์€ ์›์œ  ์†Œ๋น„์˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ ์„ ์˜ˆ๊ฒฌํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์ฃ 
12:08
not in supply, but in demand.
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๊ณต๊ธ‰์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์ˆ˜์š”์˜ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ์š”.
12:11
And Deutsche Bank even said world oil use could peak around 2016.
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๋„์ด์น˜์€ํ–‰์—์„œ๋Š” ์‹ฌ์ง€์–ด 2016๋…„ ๋ถ€๊ทผ์— ์›์œ  ์†Œ๋น„๋Š” ์ตœ๊ณ ์ ์ผ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:16
In other words, oil is getting uncompetitive even at low prices
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด์„œ, ์›์œ ๋Š” ๋†’์€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ๋„ ๋” ์ด์ƒ ๊ตฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ์‹œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์˜ค๊ธฐ ์ „,
12:21
before it becomes unavailable even at high prices.
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๊ฝค ๋‚ฎ์€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์—์„œ๋„ ๊ทธ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ์„ ์žƒ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
12:25
But the electrified vehicles
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ „๊ธฐ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋Š”
12:28
don't need to burden the electricity grid.
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์ „๊ธฐ๋ง์— ๋ถ€๋‹ด์„ ์ฃผ์ง€ ์•Š์•„๋„ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:30
Rather, when smart autos exchange electricity and information
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์˜คํžˆ๋ ค, ์Šค๋งˆํŠธ ์ž๋™์ฐจ๊ฐ€ ์Šค๋งˆํŠธ ๋นŒ๋”ฉ์—์„œ ์Šค๋งˆํŠธ ๋ง์„ ํ†ตํ•ด
12:34
through smart buildings with smart grids,
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์ „๊ธฐ์™€ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๊ณ  ๋ฐ›๊ฒŒ๋˜๋ฉด
12:36
they're adding to the grid valuable flexibility and storage
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๊ทธ ์ „๊ธฐ๋ง์ด ํƒœ์–‘์—๋„ˆ์ง€์™€ ํ’๋ ฅ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜
12:40
that help the grid integrate
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ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘๋™ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก
12:42
varying solar and wind power.
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๊ทธ ๋ง์— ์œตํ†ต์„ฑ๊ณผ ์ €์žฅ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์„ ๋”ํ•ด ์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:44
So the electrified autos
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์ „๊ธฐํ™” ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๋•๋ถ„์—
12:46
make the auto and electricity problems
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์ž๋™์ฐจ์™€ ์ „๊ธฐ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌํ•ด์„œ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค
12:49
easier to solve together than separately.
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ํ•จ๊ป˜ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์šฉ์ดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜์ฃ .
12:51
And they also converge the oil story
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ์›์œ  ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€
12:53
with our second big story,
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ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์ปค๋‹ค๋ž€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋กœ ๋ฌถ์—ฌ์ง€๋„๋ก ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:55
saving electricity and then making it differently.
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์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ์—” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
12:59
And those twin revolutions in electricity
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์ „๊ธฐ์— ๊ด€๋ จํ•œ ์ด ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ์Œ๋™์ด ํ˜์‹ ์€
13:02
will bring to that sector
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๊ทธ ๋ถ„์•ผ์—
13:05
more numerous and profound and diverse disruptions
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ„์•ผ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๋” ํฌ๊ณ , ๊นŠ๊ณ , ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ
13:08
than any other sector,
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๋ถ„์—ด์„ ์ดˆ๋ž˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:09
because we've got 21st century technology and speed colliding head-on
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 21์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๊ณผ ์†๋„๋กœ
13:13
with 20th and 19th century institutions, rules and cultures.
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19, 20์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ์ง‘๋‹จ์ด๋‚˜ ๊ทœ์น™, ๋ฌธํ™”์™€ ์ •๋ฉด์œผ๋กœ ๋งž๋‹ฅ๋œจ๋ฆฌ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
13:18
Changing how we make electricity gets easier
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์ „๊ธฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์ ์–ด์ง€๋ฉด
13:21
if we need less of it.
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์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์‰ฌ์›Œ์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:24
Most of it now is wasted
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ํ˜„์žฌ ์ „๊ธฐ์˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ๋‚ญ๋น„๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ๊ณ 
13:25
and the technologies for saving it
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์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€
13:27
keep improving faster than we're installing them.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ์†๋„๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๊ฐœ๋Ÿ‰๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:30
So the unbought efficiency resource
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์•„์ง ๊ตฌ์ž…ํ•˜์ง€๋„ ์•Š์€ ํšจ์œจํ™” ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์€
13:33
keeps getting ever bigger and cheaper.
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์ ์  ๋” ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ๊ฐ’์‹ธ์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
13:36
But as efficiency in buildings and industry
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ๊ฑด๋ฌผ๊ณผ ์‚ฐ์—…์—์„œ์˜ ํšจ์œจ์€
13:39
starts to grow faster than the economy,
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๊ฒฝ์ œ๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ๋” ๋น ๋ฅธ ์†๋„๋กœ ์ข‹์•„์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
13:41
America's electricity use could actually shrink,
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์ „๊ธฐ์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ์‚ฌ์šฉ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด
13:45
even with the little extra use required
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์ „๊ธฐ ์†Œ๋น„๊ฐ€ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ฐ์•ˆํ•ด๋„
13:49
for those efficient electrified autos.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ „๊ธฐ ์†Œ๋น„๋Š” ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๋” ์ค„์–ด๋“ค ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:51
And we can do this just by reasonably accelerating existing trends.
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ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์ถ”์„ธ๋ฅผ ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ํ•ด๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:56
Over the next 40 years, buildings,
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ํ˜„์žฌ๋Š” ๊ฑด๋ฌผ์ด ์ „๊ธฐ์˜ 3/4์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ
13:58
which use three-quarters of the electricity,
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๋‹ค์Œ 40๋…„๊ฐ„,
14:00
can triple or quadruple their energy productivity,
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๊ฑด์ถ•๋ฌผ์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ์€ ์„œ๋„ˆ๋ฐฐ๋กœ ์ข‹์•„์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:04
saving 1.4 trillion dollars, net present value,
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ํ˜„์žฌ๊ฐ€์น˜๋กœ 1์กฐ 4์ฒœ์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
14:08
with a 33 percent internal rate of return
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๋‚ด๋ถ€์ ์œผ๋กœ 33%๊ฐ€ ํ™˜์› ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:11
or in English,
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๋ง๋กœ ํ‘œํ˜„ํ•˜์ž๋ฉด
14:13
the savings are worth four times what they cost.
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๋น„์šฉ์— ๋น„ํ•˜์—ฌ 4๋ฐฐ์˜ ์ ˆ์•ฝ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:16
And industry can accelerate too,
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์‚ฐ์—…๊ณ„์ชฝ์—์„œ๋„ 21% ์ •๋„์˜ ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ํ™˜์›๋ฅ ๋กœ
14:19
doubling its energy productivity
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ์„ ๋‘๋ฐฐ๋กœ ๋†’์ด๋ฉด
14:20
with a 21 percent internal rate of return.
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์‚ฐ์—…๊ณ„๋„ ์†๋„๋ฅผ ๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:23
The key is a disruptive innovation
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์—ด์‡ ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ณผ์ •์„ ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋””์ž์ธํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:25
that we call integrative design
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ†ตํ•ฉ์  ๋””์ž์ธ์ด ๋•Œ๋กœ๋Š”
14:28
that often makes very big energy savings
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๊ทธ ๋™์•ˆ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์—ˆ๋˜ ๋น„์šฉ์  ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ
14:31
cost less than small or no savings.
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์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ ˆ์•ฝ ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์œ ๋ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:33
That is, it can give you expanding returns,
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์ฆ‰, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ†ตํ•ฉ์  ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๊ทธ ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€
14:36
not diminishing returns.
305
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์ค„์–ด๋“ค๊ธฐ ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์  ๋” ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:38
That is how our 2010 retrofit
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ 2010 Retrofit ์ด
14:42
is saving over two-fifths of the energy in the Empire State Building --
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์— ํŒŒ์ด์–ด ์Šคํ…Œ์ดํŠธ ๋นŒ๋”ฉ์—์„œ 2/5 ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•ด๋‚ธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด์ฃ .
14:45
remanufacturing those six and a half thousand windows on site
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ํ˜„์žฅ์— ์žˆ๋Š” 6์ฒœ5๋ฐฑ๊ฐœ์˜ ์ฐฝ์„
14:49
into super windows that pass light, but reflect heat.
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๋น›์€ ํˆฌ๊ณผ์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ์—ด์€ ๋ฐ˜์‚ฌํ•˜๋Š” ์ˆ˜ํผ ์ฐฝ๋ฌธ์œผ๋กœ ๊ต์ฒดํ–ˆ๊ณ 
14:53
plus better lights and office equipment and such
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๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๊ฐ€, ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‚˜์€ ์ฑ„๊ด‘๊ณผ ์‚ฌ๋ฌด์‹ค ์ง‘๊ธฐ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค๋กœ
14:57
cut the maximum cooling load by a third.
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๋ƒ‰๋ฐฉ์— ๋“œ๋Š” ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๋ถ€ํ•˜๋ฅผ 1/3 ๊ฐ€๋Ÿ‰ ์ค„์˜€์–ด์š”.
15:00
And then renovating smaller chillers instead of adding bigger ones
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๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ์—” ๋Œ€ํ˜• ๋ƒ‰๊ฐ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์„ค์น˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ€์‹  ์†Œํ˜• ๋ƒ‰๊ฐ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜๋ฆฌํ•ด ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ
15:05
saved 17 million dollars of
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๋ชจ๋‘ 1,700๋ฐฑ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:07
capital cost, which helped pay for the other improvements
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๊ทธ ๋ˆ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์„ ํšจ์œจํ™”ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์ผ์ฃ .
15:10
and reduce the payback to just three years.
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๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๋น„์šฉ์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๋Œ€์ถœ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„ ๋‹จ 3๋…„์œผ๋กœ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:14
Integrative design can also increase
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ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ ์ธ ๋””์ž์ธ์€ ์‚ฐ์—…์—์„œ์˜
15:16
energy savings in industry.
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ ˆ์•ฝ์„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:19
Dow's billion-dollar efficiency investment
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๋‹ค์šฐ์‚ฌ(็คพ)๋Š” 10์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํšจ์šธํ™”์— ํˆฌ์žํ•˜์—ฌ
15:21
has already returned nine billion dollars.
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๋ฒŒ์จ 90์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ํšŒ์ˆ˜ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:24
But industry as a whole has another half-trillion dollars
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์‚ฐ์—…๊ณ„ ์ „์ฒด๋กœ๋Š” ์•„์ง๋„ 5์ฒœ์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ •๋„์˜
15:27
of energy still to save.
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์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ ˆ์•ฝ์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
15:29
For example, three-fifths of the world's electricity runs motors.
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด, ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ „๊ธฐํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ 3/5 ๋Š” ๋ชจํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:34
Half of that runs pumps and fans.
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๊ทธ ์ค‘ ๋ฐ˜์€ ํŽŒํ”„์™€ ํŒฌ(fan)๋„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์ฃ .
15:36
And those can all be made more efficient,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ํšจ์œจ์„ ๋” ๋†’์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
15:39
and the motors that turn them
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋Œ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ชจํ„ฐ๋Š”
15:40
can have their system efficiency roughly doubled
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35๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ฐœ์„  ์‚ฌํ•ญ์„ ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•˜๋ฉด
15:44
by integrating 35 improvements, paying back in about a year.
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์ „์ฒด ํšจ์œจ์„ ๋Œ€๋žต 2๋ฐฐ๋กœ ๋Š˜์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ . ์•ฝ 1๋…„์ด๋ฉด ๋น„์šฉ์ด ํšŒ์ˆ˜๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:48
But first we ought to be capturing bigger, cheaper savings
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์šฐ์„ ์€ ๋ณดํ†ต ๋ฌด์‹œ๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ฑ…์—๋Š” ๋‚˜์™€์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์€
15:51
that are normally ignored and are not in the textbooks.
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๋Œ€๋Œ€์ ์ด๊ณ  ๋งŽ์€ ์ ˆ์•ฝ์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ฐพ์•„๋‚ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:54
For example, pumps, the biggest use of motors,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ๋“ค๋ฉด, ๋ชจํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋งŽ์ด ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ํŽŒํ”„๋Š”
15:57
move liquid through pipes.
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์•ก์ฒด๋ฅผ ๊ด€์œผ๋กœ ํ†ต๊ณผ์‹œํ‚ค๋Š”๋ฐ์š”
15:59
But a standard industrial pumping loop
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1800
ํ†ต์ƒ์ ์ธ ์‚ฐ์—…๊ณ„์˜ ๋ฐฐ๊ด€ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ๋Š”
16:00
was redesigned to use at least 86 percent less energy,
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์ตœ์†Œํ•œ 86%์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋””์ž์ธ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:05
not by getting better pumps,
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1939
๋” ์ข‹์€ ํŽŒํ”„๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
16:07
but just by replacing long, thin, crooked pipes
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๋‹จ์ง€ ๊ธธ๊ณ  ๊ฐ€๋Š˜๊ณ  ๊ตฝ์€ ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋ฅผ
16:10
with fat, short, straight pipes.
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๊ตต๊ณ  ์งง์€ ์ง์„ ํ˜• ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊พผ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
16:13
This is not about new technology,
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์ด๊ฑด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
16:16
it's just rearranging our metal furniture.
338
976527
1977
๊ทธ์ € ๊ธˆ์† ๊ฐ€๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์žฌ๋ฐฐ์—ดํ•œ ์ •๋„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:18
Of course, it also shrinks the pumping equipment
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด ํŽŒํ”„ ์žฅ๋น„๋„ ์ค„์–ด๋“ค์–ด
16:20
and its capital costs.
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์ด ๋น„์šฉ์ด ์ค„์–ด๋“ค์ฃ .
16:22
So what do such savings mean
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ ˆ์•ฝ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์ด 3/5 ๋‚˜ ๋ชจํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”
16:25
for the electricity that is three-fifths used in motors?
342
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์ „๊ธฐํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ์˜๋ฏธ์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
16:28
Well, from the coal burned at the power plant
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์ž... ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์—์„œ ์—ฐ์†Œ๋˜๋Š” ์„ํƒ„์—์„œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
16:31
through all these compounding losses,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ์†์‹ค ๊ณผ์ •์„ ํ†ตํ•ด
16:35
only a tenth of the fuel energy
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์—ฐ๋ฃŒ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์˜ ๊ฒจ์šฐ 1/10 ๋งŒ
16:37
actually ends up coming out the pipe as flow.
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์ตœ์ข… ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋กœ ํ˜๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜์˜ค๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:40
But now let's turn those compounding losses around backwards,
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์ด์ œ ๊ทธ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ์†์‹ค ๊ณผ์ •์œผ๋กœ ๋˜๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€ ๋ณผ๊นŒ์š”,
16:44
and every unit of flow or friction that we save in the pipe
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ํŒŒ์ดํ”„์—์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ์†์‹ค์„ 1๋‹จ์œ„๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜๋ฉด
16:50
saves 10 units of fuel cost, pollution
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์œ„์—์„œ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ 10๋‹จ์œ„์˜ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ์™€ ๊ณตํ•ด์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ ๋น„์šฉ์„
16:54
and what Hunter Lovins calls "global weirding"
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๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์— ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•ด ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:56
back at the power plant.
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ํ—Œํ„ฐ ๋กœ๋นˆ์Šค๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ์„ "์ „์ฒด์ ์ธ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€์‚ฌ์˜" ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ €๋˜๊ฑฐ์ฃ ..
16:58
And of course, as you go back upstream,
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์œ„์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋˜๋Œ์•„ ๊ฐ€๋ณด๋ฉด
17:00
the components get smaller and therefore cheaper.
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๋ถ€ํ’ˆ๋“ค์ด ์ž‘์•„์ง€๋ฉด์„œ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ ๋น„์šฉ๋„ ์ค„์–ด๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:03
Our team has lately found such snowballing energy savings
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์ตœ๊ทผ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ํŒ€์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ ˆ์•ฝ์€ ๋ˆˆ๋ฉ์ด์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์ปค์ ธ์„œ
17:07
in more than 30 billion dollars worth of industrial redesigns --
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์‚ฐ์—…์„ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์ด ๋””์ž์ธํ•˜๋Š” ๋น„์šฉ๊ณผ ๋งž๋จน๋Š” 300์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ด์ƒ์ด ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ์•„๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. --
17:11
everything from data centers and chip fabs
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๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์„ผํ„ฐ๋‚˜ ์นฉ์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ์ž‘์€ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํƒ„๊ด‘์ด๋‚˜ ์ •์œ ์†Œ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ฅผ
17:13
to mines and refineries.
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์ƒˆ๋กœ ๋””์ž์ธํ•˜๋Š” ๋น„์šฉ์ด์ฃ .
17:16
Typically our retrofit designs
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ํ†ต์ƒ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ฐœ๋Ÿ‰ ๋””์ž์ธ์€
17:17
save about 30 to 60 percent of the energy
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์•ฝ 30% ์—์„œ 60%์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•˜์—ฌ
17:20
and pay back in a few years,
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๋ช‡ ํ•ด ์ด๋‚ด์— ๋น„์šฉ์„ ํšŒ์ˆ˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด์—,
17:22
while the new facility designs save 40 to 90-odd percent
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์™„์ „ํžˆ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์„ค๋น„๋””์ž์ธ์„ ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ณดํ†ต ์ ์€ ๋น„์šฉ์„ ๋“ค์ด๋ฉด์„œ
17:26
with generally lower capital cost.
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40% ์—์„œ 90 ๋ช‡ %์˜ ์ ˆ์•ฝ์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:29
Now needing less electricity
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์ „๊ธฐ์˜ ํ•„์š”์„ฑ์ด ์ค„์–ด์ฆ๋ฉด
17:32
would ease and speed
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์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์–ป๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์ฃผ๋กœ ์žฌ์ƒ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ
17:34
the shift to new sources of electricity, chiefly renewables.
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ์‰ฝ๊ณ  ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ”๋€Œ์–ด ๊ฐ‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:37
China leads their explosive growth and their plummeting cost.
366
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์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ํญ๋ฐœ์ ์ธ ์„ฑ์žฅ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ์„ ์ฃผ๋„ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:42
In fact, these solar power module costs
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ด ํƒœ์–‘ ์ „์ง€ ๋ชจ๋“ˆ์˜ ๋น„์šฉ์€ ์ด์ œ ๋ง‰
17:45
have just fallen off the bottom of the chart.
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์ฑ ํŠธ ๋ฐ–์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ ํ˜„์ €ํžˆ ๋–จ์–ด์ง€๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:47
And Germany now has more solar workers
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ํ˜„์žฌ ๋…์ผ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์ข…์‚ฌ์ž์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ณด๋‹ค
17:50
than America has steel workers.
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๋” ๋งŽ์€ ํƒœ์–‘์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ด€๋ จ ์ข…์‚ฌ์ž๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:53
Already in about 20 states
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์ด๋ฏธ ์•ฝ 20๊ฐœ ์ฃผ์—์„œ
17:55
private installers will come
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๊ฐœ์ธ๋“ค์ด ๋Œ€์ถœ๋„ ์—†์ด
17:57
put those cheap solar cells on your roof with no money down
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ฐ’์‹ผ ํƒœ์–‘ ์ „์ง€๋ฅผ ์ž์‹ ๋“ค์˜ ์ง€๋ถ•์— ์„ค์น˜ํ•˜์—ฌ
18:01
and beat your utility bill.
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์ด์ „๋ณด๋‹ค ์ ์€ ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ ๋น„์šฉ์„ ์ง€๋ถˆํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:03
Such unregulated products
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์ „ํ˜€ ๊ทœ์ œ๋ฐ›์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ œํ’ˆ์€ ๊ถ๊ทน์ ์œผ๋กœ
18:05
could ultimately add up to a virtual utility
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์ „๊ธฐํšŒ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ํ•„์š”๋กœ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”
18:08
that bypasses your electric company
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์‹ค์งˆ์ ์ธ ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ ๋Œ€์ฒด์ž๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:11
just as your cellphone bypassed your wireline phone company.
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๋งˆ์น˜ ํœด๋Œ€์ „ํ™”๊ฐ€ ์œ ์„  ์ „ํ™” ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ํ”ผํ•ด๊ฐ€๋“ฏ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
18:14
And this sort of thing gives utility executives the heebee-jeebees
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ผ๋“ค์ด ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ๋†’์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋ถˆํŽธํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๊ณ 
18:18
and it gives venture capitalists sweet dreams.
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๋ฒค์ณ ์ž๋ณธ๊ฐ€์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ๋‹ฌ์ฝคํ•œ ํฌ๋ง์„ ์‹ฌ์–ด์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:20
Renewables are no longer a fringe activity.
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์žฌ์ƒ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์€ ๋” ์ด์ƒ ๋ค์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:23
For each of the past four years
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์ตœ๊ทผ์—๋Š” ์ฃผ๋กœ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋„์ƒ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์—์„œ ๊ทธ๋žฌ๋Š”๋ฐ,
18:26
half of the world's new generating capacity
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์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ง€๋‚œ 4๋…„๊ฐ„
18:29
has been renewable,
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์ด ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚œ ๋ฐœ์ „ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ์ค‘์— ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์€
18:30
mainly lately in developing countries.
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์žฌ์ƒ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:32
In 2010, renewables other than big hydro,
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2010๋…„ ๋Œ€ํ˜• ์ˆ˜๋ ฅ ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ,
18:36
particularly wind and solar cells,
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ํŠนํžˆ ํ’๋ ฅ๊ณผ ํƒœ์–‘ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์—๋Š”
18:38
got 151 billion dollars of private investment,
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์ฒœ 5๋ฐฑ์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๊ฐœ์ธ ํˆฌ์ž๊ฐ€ ๋ชฐ๋ ธ๊ณ 
18:43
and they actually surpassed the total installed capacity
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๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๊ทธํ•ด์—๋งŒ
18:46
of nuclear power in the world
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600์–ต ์™€ํŠธ์˜ ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜์—ฌ
18:48
by adding 60 billion watts in that one year.
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์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์ด ํ•ต๋ฐœ์ „๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:51
That happens to be the same amount of solar cell capacity
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค ํ˜„์žฌ ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ๋งค๋…„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”
18:55
that the world can now make every year --
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ํƒœ์–‘ ์ „์ง€์˜ ์–‘์— ๋งž๋จน๋Š” ์ •๋„์ฃ  --.
18:58
a number that goes up 60 or 70 percent a year.
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๋งค๋…„ 60% ์—์„œ 70% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ์ถ”์„ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:01
In contrast, the net additions of nuclear capacity and coal capacity
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์ด์— ๋น„ํ•ด์„œ ํ•ต ๋ฐœ์ „๊ณผ ์„ํƒ„์„ ์ด์šฉํ•œ ๋ฐœ์ „์— ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ํˆฌ์ž๋Š”
19:07
and the orders behind those keep fading
396
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๊ทธ์™€ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํˆฌ์ž์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ ธ๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:10
because they cost too much and they have too much financial risk.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ๋น„์šฉ์ด๋‚˜ ์žฌ์ •์ ์ธ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์ด ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ํฌ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
19:13
In fact in this country,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ
19:14
no new nuclear power plant
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ํ•ต ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์˜ ๊ฑด์„ค์—๋Š”
19:16
has been able to raise any private construction capital,
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7๋…„๊ฐ„ 100%๊ฐ€ ๋„˜๋Š” ๋ณด์กฐ๊ธˆ์„ ๋ฐ›๋Š”๋ฐ๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ 
19:19
despite seven years of 100-plus percent subsidies.
401
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๊ฐœ์ธ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ์ „ํ˜€ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์‹ค์ •์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:23
So how else could we replace the coal-fired power plants?
402
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๊ทธ๋ฐ–์—๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ์„ํƒ„์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ํ™”๋ ฅ ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ๋Œ€์ฒดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
19:27
Well efficiency and gas can displace them all
403
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ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ์„ ๋†’์ด๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์Šค๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋ฉด ์„ํƒ„์„ ์ด์šฉํ•œ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ ์ „๋ถ€๋ฅผ
19:31
at just below their operating cost
404
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์œ ์ง€ ๋น„์šฉ๋ณด๋‹ค ์กฐ๊ธˆ ์ ์€ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€์น˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ 
19:34
and, combined with renewables, can displace them more than 23 times
405
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์žฌ์ƒ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋Œ€์ฒด ๋น„์šฉ๋ณด๋‹ค ์ ์€ ๋น„์šฉ์œผ๋กœ
19:37
at less than their replacement cost.
406
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ํ™”๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๋ฅผ 23๋ฒˆ์ด๋‚˜ ๋Œ€์ฒดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ์ •๋„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:39
But we only need to replace them once.
407
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋”ฑ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ๋งŒ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋ฉด ๋˜์ฃ .
19:41
We're often told though
408
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ฐ€๋”
19:44
that only coal and nuclear plants can keep the lights on,
409
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์„ํƒ„์ด๋‚˜ ํ•ต ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๋งŒ ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ,
19:46
because they're 24/7,
410
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ํ•ญ์ƒ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ• ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”... (24/7 - ํ•˜๋ฃจ 24์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋งค์ฃผ 7์ผ)
19:48
whereas wind and solar power are variable,
411
1188255
2823
ํ’๋ ฅ์ด๋‚˜ ํƒœ์–‘์—ด์€ ๋ณ€๋™์ด ์‹ฌํ•ด์„œ
19:51
and hence supposedly unreliable.
412
1191078
3015
์˜์กดํ•˜๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ต๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
19:54
Actually no generator is 24/7. They all break.
413
1194093
3385
์‚ฌ์‹ค ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฐœ์ „๊ธฐ๋„ 24/7์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์—์š”. ๋ฐœ์ „๊ธฐ๋„ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๊ณ ์žฅ์€ ๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:57
And when a big plant goes down,
414
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€ํ˜• ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๊ฐ€ ๊ณ ์žฅ๋‚˜๋ฉด
19:59
you lose a thousand megawatts in milliseconds,
415
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๋ฐฑ๋งŒ๋ถ„์˜ 1์ดˆ๋งŒ์— ์ˆ˜์ฒœ ๋ฉ”๊ฐ€์™€ํŠธ์˜ ์ „๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜๊ฐ€๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ฃ 
20:02
often for weeks or months, often without warning.
416
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ์€ ๋ช‡์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ํ˜น์€ ๋ช‡๋‹ฌ๊ฐ„ ์ง€์†๋˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ๋„ ์—†์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ผ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:05
That is exactly why we've designed the grid
417
1205878
1997
๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ด์œ  ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
20:07
to back up failed plants with working plants.
418
1207875
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์ž‘๋™ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๋กœ ๊ณ ์žฅ๋‚œ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ๋น„ํ•˜๋Š” ์ „๊ธฐ๋ง์„ ๋””์ž์ธ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:12
And in exactly the same way,
419
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ
20:13
the grid can handle wind and solar power's
420
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5031
์ „๊ธฐ๋ง์€ ํ’๋ ฅ์ด๋‚˜ ํƒœ์–‘์—ด ๋ฐœ์ „์—์„œ๋„
20:18
forecastable variations.
421
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์˜ˆ์ธกํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋Œ€์‘ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:21
Hourly simulations
422
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๋ช‡ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์— ๊ฑธ์นœ ๋ชจ์˜ ์‹œํ—˜์„ ํ†ตํ•ด
20:24
show that largely or wholly renewable grids
423
1224762
3767
์ „์ฒด๋“  ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด๋“  ์žฌ์ƒ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ „๊ธฐ๋ง์œผ๋กœ
20:28
can deliver highly reliable power
424
1228529
1777
์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ์•ˆ์ •์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:30
when they're forecasted,
425
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๋‚ ์”จ ์˜ˆ๋ณด์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ
20:31
integrated and diversified
426
1231935
2054
์„ค์น˜ ์œ ํ˜•๊ณผ ์žฅ์†Œ์„
20:33
by both type and location.
427
1233989
2053
ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•˜๊ณ  ๋‹ค์–‘ํ™”ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:36
And that's true both for continental areas like the U.S. or Europe
428
1236042
4223
์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด๋‚˜ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ๊ฐ™์€ ๋Œ€๋ฅ™ ์ง€์—ญ์— ์ ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๊ตฌ์š”
20:40
and for smaller areas embedded within a larger grid.
429
1240265
4485
์ข์€ ์ง€์—ญ์€ ๋” ํฐ ์ „๊ธฐ๋ง์•ˆ์— ํฌํ•จ์‹œํ‚ค๋ฉด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:44
That is how, for example,
430
1244750
1639
์˜ˆ๋ฅผ๋“ค์–ด, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ
20:46
four German states in 2010
431
1246389
2384
2010๋…„์— ๋…์ผ์˜ 4๊ฐœ์ฃผ๋Š”
20:48
were 43 to 52 percent wind powered.
432
1248773
2597
ํ’๋ ฅ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ „์ฒด์˜ 43 - 52% ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋‹ด๋‹นํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:51
Portugal was 45 percent renewable powered,
433
1251385
3642
ํฌ๋ฅดํˆฌ๊ฐˆ์€ ์žฌ์ƒ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ 45%๋ฅผ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ–ˆ๊ณ 
20:55
Denmark 36.
434
1255027
2325
๋ด๋งˆํฌ๋Š” 36% ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:57
And it's how all of Europe can shift
435
1257352
3285
์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์„œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์€
21:00
to renewable electricity.
436
1260637
1285
์žฌ์ƒ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ „๊ธฐ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ” ๋‚˜๊ฐ„๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
21:01
In America, our aging, dirty and insecure power system
437
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4725
๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ๋“  2050๋…„๊นŒ์ง€
21:06
has to be replaced anyway by 2050.
438
1266647
2884
๋‚ก๊ณ  ๋ถˆ์•ˆ์ „ํ•œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
21:09
And whatever we replace it with
439
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด์—‡์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๊ฑด๊ฐ„์—
21:11
is going to cost about the same,
440
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1438
๋น„์šฉ์€ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋น„์Šทํ•  ๊ฑฐ์—์š”.
21:12
about six trillion dollars at present value --
441
1272596
2710
ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ ์ด 6์กฐ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ •๋„์ฃ  --
21:15
whether we buy more of what we've got
442
1275306
2208
ํ˜„์žฌ ๋ฐฉ์‹์„ ๊ณ ์ˆ˜ํ•˜๋“ 
21:17
or new nuclear and so-called clean coal,
443
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2113
์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ํ•ต๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ธ์šฐ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์†Œ์œ„ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ์ฒญ์ • ์„ํƒ„ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ๋ฅผ ์„ธ์šฐ๋“ ์ง€
21:19
or renewables that are more or less centralized.
444
1279627
3631
ํ˜น์€ ์•ฝ๊ฐ„ ์ค‘์•™ ์ง‘์ค‘ํ™”๋œ ์žฌ์ƒ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋“  ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
21:23
But those four futures at the same cost
445
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ฐ™์€ ๋น„์šฉ์„ ๋“ค์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ด ๋„ค๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์„ ํƒ์€
21:26
differ profoundly in their risks,
446
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2069
๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ๊ทธ ์œ„ํ—˜๋„๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ๋‹ค๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
21:28
around national security,
447
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2531
๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ๋ฌธ์ œ,
21:31
fuel, water, finance, technology,
448
1291127
3538
์—ฐ๋ฃŒ, ๋ฌผ, ์žฌ์ •, ๊ธฐ์ˆ ,
21:34
climate and health.
449
1294665
1531
๊ธฐํ›„์™€ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ๋ฌธ์ œ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์—์„œ์š”.
21:36
For example, our over-centralized grid
450
1296196
2835
์˜ˆ๋ฅผ๋“ค์–ด, ์ง€๋‚˜์น˜๊ฒŒ ์ค‘์•™์ง‘์ค‘ํ™”๋œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ „๊ธฐ๋ง์€
21:39
is very vulnerable to cascading
451
1299031
3931
ํ…Œ๋Ÿฌ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์ด๋‚˜
21:42
and potentially economy-shattering blackouts
452
1302962
2727
์ข‹์ง€์•Š์€ ๋‚ ์”จ๋‚˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ž์—ฐ ์žฌํ•ด์— ์˜ํ•ด ์•ผ๊ธฐ๋˜๋Š”
21:45
caused by bad space weather or other natural disasters
453
1305689
3438
์ˆœ๊ฐ„์ ์ธ, ์–ด์ฉŒ๋ฉด ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์‚ฐ์กฐ๊ฐ ๋‚ผ ์ •์ „์—
21:49
or a terrorist attack.
454
1309127
1946
๋งค์šฐ ์ทจ์•ฝํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
21:51
But that blackout risk disappears,
455
1311073
2731
๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜, ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ •์ „ ์œ„ํ—˜๊ณผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ชจ๋“  ์œ„ํ—˜๋“ค์€
21:53
and all of the other risks are best managed,
456
1313804
1977
์ตœ์ƒ์˜ ์ƒํƒœ๋กœ ๊ด€๋ฆฌํ•˜๋ฉด ์œ„ํ—˜์—์„œ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
21:55
with distributed renewables
457
1315796
2254
์žฌ์ƒ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ํ‰์ƒ์‹œ ์„œ๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋Š”
21:58
organized into local micro-grids that normally interconnect,
458
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4277
์†Œ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ง€์—ญ ์ „๊ธฐ๋ง์œผ๋กœ ์กฐ์งํ•˜๋˜
22:02
but can stand alone at need.
459
1322327
1808
ํ•„์š”์— ๋”ฐํ•˜ ๋…๋ฆฝ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
22:04
That is, they can disconnect fractally
460
1324135
2038
๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด์„œ, ์ „์ฒด๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ๊ฐœ์‹œ์ผฐ๋‹ค๊ฐ€
22:06
and then reconnect seamlessly.
461
1326173
2854
๋นˆํ‹ˆ์—†์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐํ•˜๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
22:09
That approach is exactly what the Pentagon is adopting
462
1329027
3277
์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ ‘๊ทผ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ์„ฑ์ด ๊ธฐ๊ด€๋‚ด ์ „๊ธฐ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์—
22:12
for its own power supply.
463
1332304
1315
์ ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
22:13
They think they need that; how about the rest of us that they're defending?
464
1333619
3266
๊ตญ๋ฐฉ์„ฑ์€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐฉ์‹์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ฃ : ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ์„ฑ์—์„œ ๋ฐฉ์–ดํ•ด์ฃผ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ป์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
22:16
We want our stuff to work too.
465
1336885
1685
์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ๋„ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜๊ธธ ๋ฐ”๋ผ์ฃ .
22:18
At about the same cost as business as usual,
466
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3570
ํ‰์†Œ์™€ ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ๋น„์šฉ์œผ๋กœ
22:22
this would maximize national security,
467
1342155
2005
์ด ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์•ˆ๋ณด์™€ ๊ณ ๊ฐ ํ™•๋ณด,
22:24
customer choice, entrepreneurial opportunity
468
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4002
๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ๊ธฐํšŒ์™€
22:28
and innovation.
469
1348162
1623
ํ˜์‹ ์„ ์ตœ์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์ง€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
22:29
Together, efficient use and diverse dispersed renewable supply
470
1349785
5675
์ข…ํ•ฉํ•˜๋ฉด, ํšจ์œจ์  ์†Œ๋น„์™€ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ๋œ ์žฌ์ƒ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋Š”
22:35
are starting to transform the whole electricity sector.
471
1355460
2923
์ „์ฒด ์ „๊ธฐ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์„ ๋ณ€ํ™”์‹œํ‚ค๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
22:38
Traditionally utilities build
472
1358383
1631
์ „ํ†ต์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ๋Š”
22:40
a lot of giant coal and nuclear plants
473
1360014
2169
์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ๋Œ€ํ˜• ์„ํƒ„ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์™€ ํ•ต ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ
22:42
and a bunch of big gas plants
474
1362183
1946
๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ๊ฐ€์Šค ๊ณต์žฅ
22:44
and maybe a little bit of efficiency renewables.
475
1364129
1069
๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์–ด์ฉŒ๋ฉด ์•ฝ๊ฐ„์˜ ํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ์žฌ์ƒ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ ๋˜๊ฒ ์ฃ .
22:45
And those utilities were rewarded,
476
1365198
2529
๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
22:47
as they still are in 34 states,
477
1367727
2454
์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ 34๊ฐœ ์ฃผ์—์„œ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๋“ฏ์ด
22:50
for selling you more electricity.
478
1370181
3466
๋”๋งŽ์€ ์ „๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ํŒ”๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
22:53
However, especially where regulators
479
1373647
2798
ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ทธ ๋Œ€์‹  ํ˜„์žฌ ์ฒญ๊ตฌ์„œ์˜ ์•ก์ˆ˜๋ฅผ
22:56
are now instead rewarding cutting your bills,
480
1376445
3553
์ ๊ฒŒ ๋ถ€๊ณผํ•˜๋Š” ๊ณณ์—์„œ๋Š”
22:59
the investments are shifting radically
481
1379998
3783
ํˆฌ์ž๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰์ง„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ณณ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ฎ๊ฒจ๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
23:03
toward efficiency, demand response, cogeneration,
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ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ, ์ˆ˜์š”์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฐ˜์‘, ์—ด๋ณ‘ํ•ฉ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ
23:06
renewables and ways to knit them all together reliably
483
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3369
์žฌ์ƒ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์™€ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ์•ˆ์ •์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ๋ฐ ๋ฌถ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•..
23:09
with less transmission
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์—์„œ๋Š” ์†ก์ „์€ ์ค„์ด๊ณ 
23:11
and little or no bulk electricity storage.
485
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2854
์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ ์ถ•์ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๋„ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์—†์—ˆ์ฃ .
23:13
So our energy future is not fate, but choice,
486
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์šด๋ช…์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์„ ํƒ์ด๋ฉฐ
23:16
and that choice is very flexible.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์„ ํƒ์€ ๋Œ€๋‹จ์ด ์œตํ†ต์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค..
23:19
In 1976, for example,
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1976๋…„์˜ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด๋ณผ๊นŒ์š”.
23:21
government and industry insisted
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์ •๋ถ€์™€ ์‚ฐ์—…๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ์žฅํ•˜๊ธฐ๋กœ
23:22
that the amount of energy needed to make a dollar of GDP
490
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1๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ€์น˜์˜ ๊ตญ๋ฏผ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์˜ ์–‘์€
23:25
could never go down.
491
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1783
์ ˆ๋Œ€ ์ค„์–ด๋“ค์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
23:27
And I heretically suggested it could go down several-fold.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š” ๋ช‡ ๋ฐฐ๋Š” ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ด๋‹จ์ ์ธ ์ œ์•ˆ์„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
23:30
Well that's what's actually happened so far.
493
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๊ธ€์Ž„์š”.. ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•œ๋Œ€๋กœ ํ˜„์žฌ๊นŒ์ง€ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ ...
23:33
It's fallen by half.
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1315
๋ฐ˜์ด๋‚˜ ์ค„์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
23:34
But with today's much better technologies,
495
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์ด ์ข‹์€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๊ณผ
23:37
more mature delivery channels and integrative design,
496
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2909
๋” ์„ฑ์ˆ™ํ•œ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ์™€ ๋ณตํ•ฉ์ ์ธ ๋””์ž์ธ์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉด
23:39
we can do far more and even cheaper.
497
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3900
์šฐ๋ฆฐ ๋” ์ ์€ ๋น„์šฉ์œผ๋กœ ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์ง„์ฒ™์„ ์ด๋ฃฐ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
23:43
So to solve the energy problem,
498
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ, ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
23:46
we just needed to enlarge it.
499
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋” ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
23:48
And the results may at first seem incredible,
500
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3200
๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ํ•œ ๋ˆˆ์—๋„ ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•ด ๋ณด์ผ์ง€ ๋ชจ๋ฅด์ง€๋งŒ,
23:51
but as Marshall McLuhan said,
501
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๋งˆ์ƒฌ ๋งฅ๋ฃจํ•œ์ด ๋งํ•œ๊ฒŒ ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
23:53
"Only puny secrets need protection.
502
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2752
"์ž‘์€ ๋น„๋ฐ€๋งŒ์ด ๋ณดํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ํ•„์š”๋กœ ํ•œ๋‹ค.
23:55
Big discoveries are protected by public incredulity."
503
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6084
์ปค๋‹ค๋ž€ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ์€ ๋Œ€์ค‘์  ์˜๊ตฌ์‹ฌ์ด ๋ณดํ˜ธํ•œ๋‹ค."
24:02
Now combine the electricity and oil revolutions,
504
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3482
์ด์ œ ํ˜„๋Œ€์  ํšจ์œจ๋กœ ๋ฌด์žฅ๋œ
24:05
both driven by modern efficiency,
505
1445555
1684
์ „๊ธฐ์™€ ํ˜์‹ ์  ์›์œ  ์‚ฌ์šฉ์„ ๋™์‹œ์— ํ•ด๋ณด๊ธฐ๋กœ ํ•˜์ฃ .
24:07
and you get the really big story: reinventing fire,
506
1447239
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ ์ •๋ง ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ผ๊ตฌ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.: ๋ถˆ์˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ฐœ๋ช…์ด์ฃ .
24:10
where business enabled and sped by smart policies in mindful markets
507
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5131
๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉด ์˜์‹์žˆ๋Š” ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ์ •์ฑ… ๋•๋ถ„์— ํ™•์žฅ๋˜๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”๋œ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์€
24:15
can lead the United States completely off oil and coal by 2050,
508
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4530
2050๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ์›์œ ์™€ ์„ํƒ„์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚˜๋„๋ก ์ด๋Œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
24:20
saving 5 trillion dollars,
509
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2320
5์กฐ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์ ˆ์•ฝํ•˜์—ฌ
24:22
growing the economy 2.6-fold,
510
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2593
๊ฒฝ์ œ๋Š” 2.6๋ฐฐ ์„ฑ์žฅํ•˜๊ณ 
24:25
strengthening out national security,
511
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1643
๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์•ˆ๋ณด๋„ ๊ณต๊ณ ํžˆ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
24:26
oh, and by the way, by getting rid of the oil and coal,
512
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2985
์•„.. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ๋ง์ด์ฃ . ์›์œ ์™€ ์„ํƒ„์—์„œ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚˜๋ฉด
24:29
reducing the fossil carbon emissions by 82 to 86 percent.
513
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4510
ํ™”์„ ํƒ„์†Œ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๋Ÿ‰์„ 82% ๋‚ด์ง€ 86% ์ค„์ด๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
24:34
Now if you like any of those outcomes,
514
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3334
์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค๊ป˜์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์˜ ์–ด๋–ค ๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด๋ผ๋„ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜์‹ ๋‹ค๋ฉด
24:37
you can support reinventing fire
515
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2192
์ „๋ถ€ ๋‹ค ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜์‹ค ํ•„์š”๋Š” ์—†์–ด์š”.
24:40
without needing to like all of them
516
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค ์ค‘์— ์–ด๋–ค๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ๊ฐ€์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋™์˜ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ ๋„
24:41
and without needing to agree about which of them is most important.
517
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3423
'๋ถˆ์„ ์žฌ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ'ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ณผ์ •์„ ์ง€์ง€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
24:45
So focusing on outcomes, not motives,
518
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ๋™๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜๋ฉด
24:48
can turn gridlock and conflict
519
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๊ฝ‰ ๋ง‰ํžˆ๊ณ  ๋ชจ์ˆœ์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„
24:50
into a unifying solution to America's energy challenge.
520
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4302
๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ†ตํ•ฉ์  ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ€ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
24:55
This also turns out to be the best way
521
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์ด๊ฑด ๋™์‹œ์— ์ „ ์ง€๊ตฌ์  ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋Œ€์‘ํ•˜๋Š”
24:58
to cope with global challenges --
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ข‹์€ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
25:00
climate change, nuclear proliferation,
523
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2579
๊ธฐํ›„ ๋ณ€ํ™”, ํ•ตํ™•์‚ฐ,
25:03
energy insecurity, energy poverty --
524
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2431
๋ถˆ์•ˆ์ •ํ•œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€, ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋นˆ๊ณค๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ „ ์ง€๊ตฌ์  ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์ด์š”.
25:05
all of which make us less safe.
525
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋œ ์•ˆ์ „ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
25:09
Now our team at RMI helps smart companies
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RMI ์˜ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ํŒ€์€
25:13
to get unstuck and speed this journey
527
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3069
6๊ฐœ์˜ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ๋ณ„ ์‹œ๋ฐœ์ ๊ณผ ์•ฝ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด, ํ˜„๋ช…ํ•œ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด
25:16
via six sectoral initiatives, with some more hatching.
528
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๊ณ ๋ฆฝ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์€์ฑ„, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์—ฌ์ •์— ์†๋„๋ฅผ ๋‚ด๋„๋ก ๋„์™€๋“œ๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
25:19
Of course there's still a lot of old thinking out there too.
529
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์•„์ง ์„ธ์ƒ์—๋Š” ์˜ค๋ž˜๋œ ์ƒ๊ฐ๋“ค์ด ํผ์ ธ์žˆ๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
25:22
Former oil man Maurice Strong said,
530
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3177
์ „์ง ์›์œ ์‚ฌ์—…๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์ŠคํŠธ๋กฑ์€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
25:25
"Not all the fossils are in the fuel."
531
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"๋ชจ๋“  ํ™”์„์ด ๋‹ค ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ๋œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
25:27
But as Edgar Woolard, who used to chair Dupont, reminds us,
532
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4305
๋ฐ˜๋ฉด์— ์ „์ง ๋“€ํฐ์‚ฌ ์‚ฌ์žฅ ์—๋“œ๊ฐ€ ์šฐ๋ผ๋“œ๋Š” ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.
25:31
"Companies hampered by old thinking won't be a problem
533
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4146
" ๊ตฌ์‹ ์‚ฌ๊ณ ๋กœ ๋ฐฉํ•ด๋ฐ›๋Š” ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๋ณ„ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค.
25:35
because," he said," they simply won't be around long-term."
534
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์€ ์˜ค๋ž˜์ง€ ์•Š์•„ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์งˆํ…Œ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ." ๋ผ๊ณ ์š”....
25:41
I've described not just a once-in-a-civilization
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์— ๋”ฑ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ์žˆ์„
25:44
business opportunity,
536
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1607
์‚ฌ์—… ๊ธฐํšŒ๋ผ๋Š” ๋œป์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
25:45
but one of the most profound transitions
537
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ธ๋ฅ˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์— ์žˆ์–ด์„œ
25:48
in the history of our species.
538
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์„ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฐ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
25:50
We humans are inventing a new fire,
539
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3423
์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ธ๋ฅ˜๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ถˆ์„ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
25:54
not dug from below,
540
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์•„๋ž˜๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํŒŒ๋‚ด๋“ฏ ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
25:55
but flowing from above;
541
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์œ„์—์„œ ์Ÿ์•„์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์ฃ ;
25:58
not scarce, but bountiful;
542
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2931
์•„์ฃผ ๋“œ๋ฌธ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹Œ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๋งŽ์€ ๊ธฐํšŒ์—์š”;
26:01
not local, but everywhere;
543
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1700
์ง€์—ญ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตญํ•œ๋œ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์–ด๋””์—๋“  ์žˆ๊ณ ;
26:03
not transient, but permanent;
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์ž ๊น ์ง€๋‚˜๊ฐ€๋Š”๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์˜์†์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ ;
26:06
not costly, but free.
545
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๋น„์šฉ๋„ ๋“ค์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ณต์งœ์—์š”.
26:09
And but for a little transitional tail of natural gas
546
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3400
๋ณ€ํ™˜์— ๊ณผ์ •์— ์ฒœ์—ฐ๊ฐ€์Šค๊ฐ€ ์—†์—ˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
26:12
and a bit of biofuel grown in ways that sustain and endure,
547
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3562
์ง€๊ธˆ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์Šค๋กœ ์œ ์ง€ํ•ด๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ƒ๋ฌผ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ์—†์—ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
26:15
this new fire is flameless.
548
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์ด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ถˆ์€ ์ง€ํŽด์ง€์ง€๋„ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
26:19
Efficiently used, it really can do our work
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ํšจ์œจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
26:23
without working our undoing.
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๋ณ„๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์—†์ด๋„ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์‚ฌ๋ช…์„ ๋‹คํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
26:26
Each of you owns a piece of that $5 trillion prize.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„ ํ•œ๋ถ„ ํ•œ๋ถ„์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ 5์กฐ์›์„ ๋‚˜๋ˆˆ ์ƒ๊ธˆ์˜ ์ง€๋ถ„์„ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ๊ณ„์‹ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
26:31
And our new book "Reinventing Fire"
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ƒˆ์ฑ… "๋ถˆ์˜ ์žฌ๋ฐœ๋ช…"์—์„œ๋Š”
26:33
describes how you can capture it.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ์„ฑ์ทจํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ๋งํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
26:36
So with the conversation just begun
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ReinventingFire.com์—์„œ
26:38
at ReinventingFire.com,
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์ด์ œ ๋ง‰ ์‹œ์ž‘๋œ ๋…ผ์˜์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜
26:40
let me invite you each
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„ ๊ฐœ๊ฐœ์ธ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘์™€ ๋˜ํ•œ ์„œ๋กœ ์„œ๋กœ์™€,
26:42
to engage with us and with each other, with everyone around you,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„ ์ฃผ๋ณ€์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ถ„๋“ค๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ํ•˜์‹œ์ž๊ณ  ์ดˆ๋Œ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ”์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
26:46
to help make the world richer, fairer,
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๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ถˆ์„ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์ด ๋ฐœ๋ช…ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ
26:49
cooler and safer
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๋ถ€์œ ํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ณตํ‰ํ•˜๊ณ ,
26:51
by together reinventing fire.
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๊น”๋”ํ•˜๊ณ  ์•ˆ์ „ํ•œ ์„ธ์ƒ์„ ์ด๋ฃจ์ž๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
26:54
Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
26:56
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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