Nick Bostrom: Humanity's biggest problems aren't what you think they are

112,554 views ・ 2007-05-16

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翻译人员: Yujian Li 校对人员: Zhu Jie
00:25
I want to talk today about --
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今天我所要讲的是-
00:28
I've been asked to take the long view, and I'm going to tell you what
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他们让我谈谈长远的观点-我要告诉你们
00:34
I think are the three biggest problems for humanity
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我认为,从长远来看,
00:38
from this long point of view.
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人类面临着三大问题。
00:41
Some of these have already been touched upon by other speakers,
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其中有些问题已经被其他讲演者提到了,
00:44
which is encouraging.
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这是很鼓舞人心的。
00:46
It seems that there's not just one person
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看起来远不止一个人
00:48
who thinks that these problems are important.
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认为这些问题意义重大。
00:50
The first is -- death is a big problem.
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第一——死亡是一个重大的问题。
00:54
If you look at the statistics,
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如果你看看统计数据,
00:57
the odds are not very favorable to us.
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形式对我们来说并不乐观。
00:59
So far, most people who have lived have also died.
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到目前为止,大部分曾经活过的人,都已经死了。
01:03
Roughly 90 percent of everybody who has been alive has died by now.
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大致来说,所有人类中百分之九十的人目前已经死亡了.
01:07
So the annual death rate adds up to 150,000 --
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因此,年死亡率总计就是15万——
01:13
sorry, the daily death rate -- 150,000 people per day,
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对不起,日死亡率——每天15万人,
01:16
which is a huge number by any standard.
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以任何标准看,这个数字都是巨大的。
01:19
The annual death rate, then, becomes 56 million.
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那么,年死亡率就变成了5千6百万人。
01:24
If we just look at the single, biggest cause of death -- aging --
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如果我们只着眼于死亡的最大的单一因素——衰老——
01:30
it accounts for roughly two-thirds of all human people who die.
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大约有三分之二的人因此而死。
01:35
That adds up to an annual death toll
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这些每年因衰老而死亡的人数
01:38
of greater than the population of Canada.
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比加拿大的人口还要多。
01:40
Sometimes, we don't see a problem
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有时,我们无视于问题之存在,
01:42
because either it's too familiar or it's too big.
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因为要么这个问题太熟悉,要么这个问题太大了。
01:46
Can't see it because it's too big.
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因为问题太大了,所以我们看不见。
01:48
I think death might be both too familiar and too big
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我认为,死亡对我们来说,既过于熟悉也过于巨大
01:51
for most people to see it as a problem.
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因此大多数人都不会把它当做一个问题来看待。
01:54
Once you think about it, you see this is not statistical points;
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一旦你想一下,你就会发现这并不是统计数字而已。
01:56
these are -- let's see, how far have I talked?
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这些是——让我看看,我讲了有多久了?
01:58
I've talked for three minutes.
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我已经讲了三分钟。
02:01
So that would be, roughly, 324 people have died since I've begun speaking.
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那么,从我开始讲话到现在,有大概324个人已经去世了。
02:08
People like -- it's roughly the population in this room has just died.
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这个人数就像——大概有这个房间里的那么多人刚才去世了。
02:13
Now, the human cost of that is obvious,
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死亡给人类带来的损失是很明显的。
02:15
once you start to think about it -- the suffering, the loss --
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如果你开始细想——死亡带来的痛苦、损失
02:18
it's also, economically, enormously wasteful.
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从经济上来说,这也是一种巨大的浪费。
02:21
I just look at the information, and knowledge, and experience
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光从信息、知识和经验来看,
02:24
that is lost due to natural causes of death in general,
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一般而言,它们都因人的自然死亡而消失了,
02:27
and aging, in particular.
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尤其是因衰老而造成的死亡。
02:29
Suppose we approximated one person with one book?
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假设我们把一个人比作一本书,
02:32
Now, of course, this is an underestimation.
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当然,这对人来说是低估的。
02:34
A person's lifetime of learning and experience
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一个人一生的学识和经验
02:40
is a lot more than you could put into a single book.
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远不能为一本书所容纳。
02:42
But let's suppose we did this.
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但让我们这么假设吧。
02:45
52 million people die of natural causes each year
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每年有五千两百万人因自然原因而死亡
02:50
corresponds, then, to 52 million volumes destroyed.
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那么,相应的,五千两百万册书也毁灭了。
02:54
Library of Congress holds 18 million volumes.
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国会图书馆有一千八百万册藏书。
02:58
We are upset about the burning of the Library of Alexandria.
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亚历山大图书馆被烧毁让我们深感惋惜。
03:01
It's one of the great cultural tragedies
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这是一大文化悲剧
03:03
that we remember, even today.
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我们直到今天还记忆犹新。
03:07
But this is the equivalent of three Libraries of Congress --
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但死亡造成的损失,相当于每年有三座国会图书馆的藏书
03:09
burnt down, forever lost -- each year.
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灰飞烟灭,永远消亡。
03:12
So that's the first big problem.
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因此,这是第一个重大问题。
03:14
And I wish Godspeed to Aubrey de Grey,
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我要祝奥布里·德·格雷(译者:研究永生的学者)
03:17
and other people like him,
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和他的同行们成功,
03:19
to try to do something about this as soon as possible.
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祝他们在这个问题上尽早有所进展。
03:23
Existential risk -- the second big problem.
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存在风险——第二个重大问题。
03:26
Existential risk is a threat to human survival, or to the long-term potential of our species.
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存在风险是对人类生存,或对整个人类种群的长远潜能的一种威胁。
03:33
Now, why do I say that this is a big problem?
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为什么我会认为这是一个重大问题?
03:35
Well, let's first look at the probability --
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让我们来看看可能性——
03:39
and this is very, very difficult to estimate --
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这非常难估量——
03:42
but there have been only four studies on this in recent years,
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但近年来,这个领域只出现了四篇研究文章。
03:45
which is surprising.
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这很让人吃惊。
03:47
You would think that it would be of some interest
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你可能会认为,既然厉害关系如此巨大,
03:50
to try to find out more about this given that the stakes are so big,
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那么在这个领域做研究一定是有意义的。
03:54
but it's a very neglected area.
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然而,这是一个被人们忽视的领域。
03:56
But there have been four studies --
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但是,已经有了四篇研究——
03:58
one by John Lesley, wrote a book on this.
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其中一篇由约翰·雷斯利所著,为这个问题写了一本书。
04:00
He estimated a probability that we will fail
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据他估计,有50%的可能性
04:02
to survive the current century: 50 percent.
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我们会在这个世纪灭亡。
04:05
Similarly, the Astronomer Royal, whom we heard speak yesterday,
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类似的,皇家天文学家(名号)——我们昨天听过他的演讲——
04:10
also has a 50 percent probability estimate.
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的估算结果也是50%。
04:13
Another author doesn't give any numerical estimate,
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另外一个作者并没有给出任何数据估算,
04:16
but says the probability is significant that it will fail.
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但他指出,人类灭亡的可能性非常高。
04:19
I wrote a long paper on this.
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我就这个问题写了一篇长篇论文
04:22
I said assigning a less than 20 percent probability would be a mistake
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我在文章里指出,根据现有的证据,
04:26
in light of the current evidence we have.
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任何低于20%的可能性估算都应该是错误的。
04:29
Now, the exact figures here,
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对于这里的具体数字,
04:31
we should take with a big grain of salt,
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我们不应该全盘相信,
04:33
but there seems to be a consensus that the risk is substantial.
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但人们似乎对此达成共识,风险的确不小。
04:36
Everybody who has looked at this and studied it agrees.
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每个看过并研究过这方面的人,都会同意。
04:39
Now, if we think about what just reducing
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那么,如果我们考虑
04:41
the probability of human extinction by just one percentage point --
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将人类灭绝的可能性几率只减少一个百分点——
04:46
not very much -- so that's equivalent to 60 million lives saved,
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并不是很多——那就相当于拯救了六千万的生命,
04:51
if we just count the currently living people, the current generation.
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而这只是计算现存的人类,当代人口。
04:55
Now one percent of six billion people is equivalent to 60 million.
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那么六十亿人的百分之一相当于六千万。
04:59
So that's a large number.
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这是一个很大的数字。
05:01
If we were to take into account future generations
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如果我们把未来的人口也算进来
05:04
that will never come into existence if we blow ourselves up,
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如果我们把自己毁灭了,未来人口也永不会存在,
05:09
then the figure becomes astronomical.
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那么这数字就变成天文数字了。
05:12
If we could eventually colonize a chunk of the universe --
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如果我们最终可以开拓宇宙的一角为生存地——
05:15
the Virgo supercluster --
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比如室女座超星系团——
05:17
maybe it will take us 100 million years to get there,
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可能我们需要一亿年才能到达那儿,
05:19
but if we go extinct we never will.
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但如果我们灭亡了,我们永远也到不了
05:22
Then, even a one percentage point reduction
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那么,即使是减少百分之一
05:25
in the extinction risk could be equivalent
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的灭绝风险,那将等同于
05:29
to this astronomical number -- 10 to the power of 32.
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这个极为庞大的数字——10的32次方。
05:32
So if you take into account future generations as much as our own,
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那么,如果你像关心我们自己一样关心我们的后代,
05:36
every other moral imperative of philanthropic cost just becomes irrelevant.
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所有其他基于道义责任的慈善都变得无关紧要。
05:41
The only thing you should focus on
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你所应该关注的唯一事情
05:43
would be to reduce existential risk
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就是减少生存风险
05:45
because even the tiniest decrease in existential risk
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因为即使只减少极少的一点生存风险,
05:49
would just overwhelm any other benefit you could hope to achieve.
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其带来的好处也可以覆盖其它任何你希望获得的利益。
05:53
And even if you just look at the current people,
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另外,如果你仅仅关注现在的人类,
05:55
and ignore the potential that would be lost if we went extinct,
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而忽略那些一旦我们灭绝后可能失去的潜能,
06:00
it should still have a high priority.
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减少存在风险也仍旧值得优先考虑。
06:02
Now, let me spend the rest of my time on the third big problem,
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现在,让我把余下的时间花在对第三个重大问题的探讨上。
06:07
because it's more subtle and perhaps difficult to grasp.
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因为这个问题更加微妙,也可能难以把握。
06:13
Think about some time in your life --
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试着回忆一下你生命中的某些时刻——
06:17
some people might never have experienced it -- but some people,
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有些人可能从未体会过——但有些人
06:20
there are just those moments that you have experienced
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在他们生命的某些时刻
06:23
where life was fantastic.
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体会到生命的美妙。
06:25
It might have been at the moment of some great, creative inspiration
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它可能是当你进入心流体验时
06:32
you might have had when you just entered this flow stage.
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所经历的很棒的,产生创造性灵感的时候。
06:34
Or when you understood something you had never done before.
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或者是当你弄懂了某件以往从未涉足的事情的时刻。
06:36
Or perhaps in the ecstasy of romantic love.
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或者是浪漫爱情中那销魂迷醉的时刻。
06:40
Or an aesthetic experience -- a sunset or a great piece of art.
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或者是一种对美感的欣赏——如一次落日,或一幅名画。
06:45
Every once in a while we have these moments,
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时不时的,我们便会经历这样的时刻,
06:47
and we realize just how good life can be when it's at its best.
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我们意识到,生命最美好的时刻是多么令人陶醉。
06:51
And you wonder, why can't it be like that all the time?
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然后你就想,为什么生活不能总是那么美好呢?
06:56
You just want to cling onto this.
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你就是想抓住此刻不放。
06:58
And then, of course, it drifts back into ordinary life and the memory fades.
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然后呢,当然,生活又回到了常态,美好记忆悄然消退。
07:02
And it's really difficult to recall, in a normal frame of mind,
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对我们来说,以一颗平常之心是非常难以回想
07:06
just how good life can be at its best.
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生活在最精彩的时候是多么的美好,
07:09
Or how bad it can be at its worst.
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或在最差劲的时候是多么的糟糕。
07:12
The third big problem is that life isn't usually
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第三个重大问题是,生命通常达不到
07:15
as wonderful as it could be.
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它可能达到的美妙状态。
07:17
I think that's a big, big problem.
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我想这是一个非常,非常大的问题。
07:21
It's easy to say what we don't want.
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我们很容易指出出我们不喜欢的东西。
07:24
Here are a number of things that we don't want --
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以下都是我们避之而不及的东西——
07:27
illness, involuntary death, unnecessary suffering, cruelty,
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疾病、非自愿死亡、不必要的痛苦、残酷、
07:30
stunted growth, memory loss, ignorance, absence of creativity.
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发育停滞、健忘症、无知,以及缺乏创造力。
07:36
Suppose we fixed these things -- we did something about all of these.
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假设我们解决了这些问题——我们对所有这些都采取些措施。
07:39
We were very successful.
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我们对此非常成功。
07:41
We got rid of all of these things.
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我们摆脱了所有这些难题。
07:43
We might end up with something like this,
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我们可能会变成这样。
07:46
which is -- I mean, it's a heck of a lot better than that.
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我的意思是,这将比原来的境况要好一百倍,
07:50
But is this really the best we can dream of?
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但是,这真的是我们能想到的最好结果吗?
07:55
Is this the best we can do?
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这真的是我们所能做的最好程度吗?
07:57
Or is it possible to find something a little bit more inspiring to work towards?
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还是有可能找到一些更加鼓舞人心的目标来为之奋斗?
08:03
And if we think about this,
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如果我们这样想,
08:05
I think it's very clear that there are ways
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我认为,有一点非常明确,那就是
08:09
in which we could change things, not just by eliminating negatives,
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如果想改变现状,除了消除负面因素,
08:12
but adding positives.
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还可以增加积极因素。
08:14
On my wish list, at least, would be:
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至少在我的愿望清单上会有——
08:16
much longer, healthier lives, greater subjective well-being,
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更长久、更健康的幸福,更美满的康乐安宁,
08:21
enhanced cognitive capacities, more knowledge and understanding,
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更强的认知能力,更多的知识和领悟力,
08:26
unlimited opportunity for personal growth
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超越目前人类生物极限的无限的个人成长机会,
08:28
beyond our current biological limits, better relationships,
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更好的人际关系,
08:32
an unbounded potential for spiritual, moral
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更宽广的精神,道德
08:34
and intellectual development.
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以及才智方面的发展空间。
08:36
If we want to achieve this, what, in the world, would have to change?
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如果我们想达到这些目标,世界应如何改变?
08:44
And this is the answer -- we would have to change.
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答案是——该改变的是我们。
08:49
Not just the world around us, but we, ourselves.
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不仅仅改变我们周围的世界,更应该改变我们自己。
08:52
Not just the way we think about the world, but the way we are -- our very biology.
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不仅仅改变我们看待世界的方式,还有我们自身存在的方式——我们自身的生物特性。
08:56
Human nature would have to change.
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人类本质必须要改变。
08:58
Now, when we think about changing human nature,
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那么,当我们考虑改变人类本质时,
09:00
the first thing that comes to mind
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首先想到的
09:02
are these human modification technologies --
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便是那些人类改造技术——
09:06
growth hormone therapy, cosmetic surgery,
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荷尔蒙生长疗法,整容手术,
09:08
stimulants like Ritalin, Adderall, anti-depressants,
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如利他林,安非他命缓释剂之类的兴奋剂,抗抑郁剂,
09:11
anabolic steroids, artificial hearts.
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合成代谢类固醇,人造心脏。
09:13
It's a pretty pathetic list.
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这是一张可悲的清单。
09:16
They do great things for a few people
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这些技术极大地帮助了一部分人,
09:18
who suffer from some specific condition,
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这些人患有某些特定的病症。
09:20
but for most people, they don't really transform
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但对与大多数人来说,它们并不能真正改变
09:25
what it is to be human.
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人的本质。
09:27
And they also all seem a little bit --
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并且,它们看起来也有点——
09:29
most people have this instinct that, well, sure,
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大多数人都会本能地认为,
09:32
there needs to be anti-depressants for the really depressed people.
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虽然抗抑郁剂对严重抑郁的人来说确实是必须的,
09:34
But there's a kind of queasiness
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但这里面总有一点让人不舒服的成分,
09:36
that these are unnatural in some way.
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因为在某种程度上说,这毕竟是很不自然的。
09:39
It's worth recalling that there are a lot of other
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值得一提的是,有许多其他的
09:41
modification technologies and enhancement technologies that we use.
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改造技术和改善技术供我们使用。
09:44
We have skin enhancements, clothing.
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我们有改善皮肤的产品,服装。
09:48
As far as I can see, all of you are users of this
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据我的观察,你们所有人都是
09:52
enhancement technology in this room, so that's a great thing.
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这改善技术的使用者,所以这是个好东西。
09:57
Mood modifiers have been used from time immemorial --
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自古以来,情绪改善剂就一直为人们所使用——
10:00
caffeine, alcohol, nicotine, immune system enhancement,
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咖啡因、酒精、尼古丁、免疫系统增强剂、
10:05
vision enhancement, anesthetics --
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视力增强品、麻醉剂。
10:07
we take that very much for granted,
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我们通常认为这些是理所当然的,没什么稀奇,
10:09
but just think about how great progress that is --
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但想想看这是多么伟大的进步——
10:13
like, having an operation before anesthetics was not fun.
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比如,不实施麻醉而进行手术可不是好玩的。
10:17
Contraceptives, cosmetics and brain reprogramming techniques --
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避孕药、美容用品和大脑重新编程技术——
10:23
that sounds ominous,
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听起来并不像什么好事。
10:25
but the distinction between what is a technology --
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但技术——典型的例子就是小装置,
10:29
a gadget would be the archetype --
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以及其他改变和重塑人类本质的方法,
10:31
and other ways of changing and rewriting human nature is quite subtle.
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这两者的差别很微妙。
10:35
So if you think about what it means to learn arithmetic or to learn to read,
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因此,如果你思考学习算术和阅读意义何在,
10:39
you're actually, literally rewriting your own brain.
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那实际上你就是在重写你自己的大脑。
10:42
You're changing the microstructure of your brain as you go along.
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你在学习的过程中,也正在改变大脑的微型结构。
10:46
So in a broad sense, we don't need to think about technology
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所以,广义而言,我们不必认为技术
10:49
as only little gadgets, like these things here,
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只是一些小装置,如上面列举的那些。
10:51
but even institutions and techniques,
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还应包括甚至像制度,技能,
10:55
psychological methods and so forth.
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心理学方法等等。
10:57
Forms of organization can have a profound impact on human nature.
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组织机构的不同形式可对人类本质产生深远影响。
11:02
Looking ahead, there is a range of technologies
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遥望未来,一系列技术
11:04
that are almost certain to be developed sooner or later.
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迟早会被研发出来。
11:07
We are very ignorant about what the time scale for these things are,
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虽然我们对这些技术何时面世一无所知,
11:11
but they all are consistent with everything we know
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但它们必然与我们所知的一切知识相一致,
11:13
about physical laws, laws of chemistry, etc.
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包括物理定律、化学定律等等。
11:17
It's possible to assume,
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我们可以假定,
11:19
setting aside a possibility of catastrophe,
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排除人类遭受大灾难的可能性,
11:22
that sooner or later we will develop all of these.
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迟早我们都会发展出所有这些技术。
11:25
And even just a couple of these would be enough
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而且,仅仅这其中的几项就足够
11:28
to transform the human condition.
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改变人类的处境。
11:30
So let's look at some of the dimensions of human nature
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那么,让我们看看人类本质中哪些部分
11:35
that seem to leave room for improvement.
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是有进步空间的。
11:38
Health span is a big and urgent thing,
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寿命长短是一个巨大而紧迫的问题,
11:40
because if you're not alive,
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因为如果你死了,
11:42
then all the other things will be to little avail.
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那么所有其他事情都一无所用了。
11:45
Intellectual capacity -- let's take that box,
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智力——看那个方框,
11:47
which falls into a lot of different sub-categories:
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它可以分为许多不同的子目录——
11:52
memory, concentration, mental energy, intelligence, empathy.
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记忆力,注意力,精神能量,理解力,情感共鸣。
11:55
These are really great things.
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这些都是非常美妙的东西。
11:57
Part of the reason why we value these traits
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我们之所以重视这些特质,一方面是因为
11:59
is that they make us better at competing with other people --
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它们能令我们在与他人的竞争中处于更有利的位置,
12:03
they're positional goods.
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所以它们是地位商品。
12:05
But part of the reason --
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但另一方面的原因——
12:07
and that's the reason why we have ethical ground for pursuing these --
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即从人类的本质上看,它们也是很有价值的,
12:11
is that they're also intrinsically valuable.
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这也是为什么我们拥有追求这些特质的道德基础。
12:14
It's just better to be able to understand more of the world around you
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去理解你周围的世界和人
12:18
and the people that you are communicating with,
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以及记住所学的知识,
12:20
and to remember what you have learned.
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能让你变得更好。
12:24
Modalities and special faculties.
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不同的模式和特殊能力.
12:26
Now, the human mind is not a single unitary information processor,
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人类的思维并不是一个单一的信息处理器,
12:31
but it has a lot of different, special, evolved modules
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相反,它拥有许多不同的、特殊的、已进化的模块,
12:35
that do specific things for us.
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这些模块各司其职,为我们服务。
12:37
If you think about what we normally take as giving life a lot of its meaning --
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想一下那些通常我们认为赋予生活许多意义的事物——
12:41
music, humor, eroticism, spirituality, aesthetics,
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音乐、幽默、性爱、灵性、美学
12:45
nurturing and caring, gossip, chatting with people --
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养育和关心、八卦、与他人聊天。
12:50
all of these, very likely, are enabled by a special circuitry
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所有的这些,都类似的由一个特殊的
12:54
that we humans have,
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每个人都具备的电路所启动,
12:56
but that you could have another intelligent life form that lacks these.
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但很可能,另外一种智慧生命形态却没有这些装置。
12:59
We're just lucky that we have the requisite neural machinery
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我们只是幸运地拥有了这种必备的神经装置
13:02
to process music and to appreciate it and enjoy it.
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来处理音乐,欣赏它,并从中得到乐趣。
13:06
All of these would enable, in principle -- be amenable to enhancement.
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所有的这些,从原则上说,都可以以某些方式改进。
13:09
Some people have a better musical ability
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有些人拥有比他人优秀的音乐能力
13:11
and ability to appreciate music than others have.
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及更好的音乐欣赏能力。
13:13
It's also interesting to think about what other things are --
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如果想想其它事物的情况,那会很有意思
13:16
so if these all enabled great values,
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那么,如果这些事物都能带来宝贵的价值,
13:20
why should we think that evolution has happened to provide us
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为什么我们要认为,这些模式,
13:23
with all the modalities we would need to engage
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这些我们要用来与其他可能存在的价值体系来沟通的模式,
13:26
with other values that there might be?
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是由进化凑巧提供的呢?
13:28
Imagine a species
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假设有这样一个物种
13:30
that just didn't have this neural machinery for processing music.
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它们刚好没有能够处理音乐的神经装置。
13:34
And they would just stare at us with bafflement
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当我们花时间聆听一曲美妙的演奏时,
13:37
when we spend time listening to a beautiful performance,
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就像我们刚听到的那支,
13:41
like the one we just heard -- because of people making stupid movements,
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它们只能迷惑的盯着我们,因为觉得人们在做愚蠢的举动。
13:43
and they would be really irritated and wouldn't see what we were up to.
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并且它们会变得很烦躁,不知道我们到底在干什么。
13:46
But maybe they have another faculty, something else
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但是,它们可能具有另外一种能力,
13:49
that would seem equally irrational to us,
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一种同样对我们来说毫无意义的东西,
13:52
but they actually tap into some great possible value there.
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但它们的确会在这方面开发出一些美好的可能的价值。
13:55
But we are just literally deaf to that kind of value.
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但我们对那种价值就是充耳不闻。
13:59
So we could think of adding on different,
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因此,我们可以考虑增加不同的
14:01
new sensory capacities and mental faculties.
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新式的感官机能和精神能力。
14:05
Bodily functionality and morphology and affective self-control.
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身体功能、形态以及情感自我控制。
14:10
Greater subjective well-being.
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更高层次的主观幸福。
14:12
Be able to switch between relaxation and activity --
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能够在放松和活动之间转换
14:15
being able to go slow when you need to do that, and to speed up.
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能够根据需要,或放慢速度或加快步伐。
14:19
Able to switch back and forth more easily
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能够进退更加自如
14:21
would be a neat thing to be able to do --
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是件很棒的事,
14:23
easier to achieve the flow state,
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它可以让我们更加容易进入心流状态,
14:25
when you're totally immersed in something you are doing.
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即一种完全沉浸于所做之事时的状态。
14:29
Conscientiousness and sympathy.
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责任心和同情心。
14:31
The ability to -- it's another interesting application
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这另一种有趣的能力
14:34
that would have large social ramification, perhaps.
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会带来巨大的社会分歧问题。
14:37
If you could actually choose to preserve your romantic attachments to one person,
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如果你真的能够保存你对另一个人的浪漫爱恋,
14:43
undiminished through time,
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不受时光侵蚀,
14:45
so that wouldn't have to -- love would never have to fade if you didn't want it to.
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那么,爱情就会随你心意,永葆灿烂。
14:50
That's probably not all that difficult.
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这也许并不是太难做到的事情。
14:53
It might just be a simple hormone or something that could do this.
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可能只需要一种普通激素或其它什么材料。
14:58
It's been done in voles.
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人们在田鼠身上做过这种实验。
15:02
You can engineer a prairie vole to become monogamous
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本性上是一雄多雌制的草原田鼠,经过改造后,
15:05
when it's naturally polygamous.
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可变为一雄一雌制。
15:07
It's just a single gene.
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只是单一基因的转变
15:09
Might be more complicated in humans, but perhaps not that much.
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对于人类这可能更加复杂,但也许并不那么麻烦。
15:11
This is the last picture that I want to --
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这是我想讨论的最后一张图片
15:14
now we've got to use the laser pointer.
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现在我们要用镭射指针了。
15:17
A possible mode of being here would be a way of life --
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一种可能存在的模式,是一种生活的方式
15:20
a way of being, experiencing, thinking, seeing,
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一种存在、经历、思考、观察、
15:24
interacting with the world.
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及与世界互动的方式。
15:26
Down here in this little corner, here, we have the little sub-space
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在下面这里的小角落里,我们可以看到这个子空间
15:31
of this larger space that is accessible to human beings --
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存在于这片较大的、属于我们
15:35
beings with our biological capacities.
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这种具有人类能力的生物可及的空间。
15:38
It's a part of the space that's accessible to animals;
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这空间属于更大的动物可及空间的一部分——
15:41
since we are animals, we are a subset of that.
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因为我们也是动物,所以我们属于动物的分支。
15:44
And then you can imagine some enhancements of human capacities.
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那么我们可以想象对人类的能力进行一些改善。
15:48
There would be different modes of being you could experience
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你可能可以体验不同的存在模式,
15:51
if you were able to stay alive for, say, 200 years.
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假设你能活到200岁吧。
15:54
Then you could live sorts of lives and accumulate wisdoms
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那么你就可以体验不同的生活并积累智慧,
15:58
that are just not possible for humans as we currently are.
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而以我们现阶段的人类形态,我们是无法做到的。
16:01
So then, you move off to this larger sphere of "human +,"
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那么,然后我们迈步来到这片更大的人类空间,
16:05
and you could continue that process and eventually
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我们不断地前进,
16:08
explore a lot of this larger space of possible modes of being.
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最终,在这片更大的空间,我们可以探索许多可能的生存方式。
16:12
Now, why is that a good thing to do?
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那么,为什么这么做有益呢?
16:14
Well, we know already that in this little human circle there,
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我们已经知道,在这片小小的人类空间中,
16:18
there are these enormously wonderful and worthwhile modes of being --
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有极多美妙和宝贵的生存模式
16:22
human life at its best is wonderful.
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人类生活的最高境界是美好的。
16:25
We have no reason to believe that within this much, much larger space
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我们没有理由不相信,在这片更大的空间中
16:30
there would not also be extremely worthwhile modes of being,
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会存在更多极其宝贵的生存方式。
16:34
perhaps ones that would be way beyond our wildest ability
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它们可能大大超越我们智慧的极限,
16:40
even to imagine or dream about.
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我们甚至做梦也无法想象得到。
16:42
And so, to fix this third problem,
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因此,要解决这第三个问题
16:44
I think we need -- slowly, carefully, with ethical wisdom and constraint --
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我认为我们需要缓慢地,仔细地,带着道德智慧和自制力
16:50
develop the means that enable us to go out in this larger space and explore it
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来发展一些方式让我们能够走进并探索这片更宽广的空间。
16:55
and find the great values that might hide there.
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并且找到那里可能隐藏着的巨大价值。
16:57
Thanks.
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谢谢。
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