Nick Bostrom: Humanity's biggest problems aren't what you think they are

譯者: Barry Hu 審譯者: Iwen Ho

I want to talk today about --

今天我想談論的是

I've been asked to take the long view, and I'm going to tell you what

主辦單位要求我就長期觀點， 和各位分享

I think are the three biggest problems for humanity

三個我認為和人類有關 最重大的問題

from this long point of view.

就長期的觀點來觀察

Some of these have already been touched upon by other speakers,

其他講者曾探討了其中的一些問題

which is encouraging.

令我非常鼓舞

It seems that there's not just one person

看來我似乎不是唯一

who thinks that these problems are important.

認為這些議題很重要的人

The first is -- death is a big problem.

第一個問題： 死亡， 可是個大問題

If you look at the statistics,

統計數字顯示

the odds are not very favorable to us.

情況對人類不大有利

So far, most people who have lived have also died.

到目前為止 大多數活過的人最終都死亡

Roughly 90 percent of everybody who has been alive has died by now.

世界上所有活過的人 到現在差不多九成都已過世

So the annual death rate adds up to 150,000 --

算起來 大約每年有15萬人死亡

sorry, the daily death rate -- 150,000 people per day,

抱歉！ 是每天有15萬人死亡

which is a huge number by any standard.

以任何標準來看 都是一個大數目

The annual death rate, then, becomes 56 million.

以年計，就是每年5千6百萬人死亡

If we just look at the single, biggest cause of death -- aging --

就單一最大的死因 - 年老 來看

it accounts for roughly two-thirds of all human people who die.

大約就占所有死因的三分之二

That adds up to an annual death toll

每年因之而死的人口總數

of greater than the population of Canada.

比加拿大的所有人口還要多

Sometimes, we don't see a problem

有時,我們不認為這有什麼問題

because either it's too familiar or it's too big.

因為死亡實在是太熟悉了 要不就是太大了

Can't see it because it's too big.

死亡影響太大 反而蒙蔽了我們，讓我們視而不見

I think death might be both too familiar and too big

我想死亡可能就是因為既平常，影響又大

for most people to see it as a problem.

反而大部分的人都不覺得它是問題

Once you think about it, you see this is not statistical points;

但只要細想一下，你就會留意到這不僅是幾個統計數字

these are -- let's see, how far have I talked?

這些是 － 等等，我已經在台上講了多久?

I've talked for three minutes.

我已經講了三分鐘

So that would be, roughly, 324 people have died since I've begun speaking.

所以，從我開始說話到現在大概有324人已經死亡

People like -- it's roughly the population in this room has just died.

可以說，有跟現在這間演講廳內一樣多的人 已經死了

Now, the human cost of that is obvious,

以人的角度來看，代價其實很明顯

once you start to think about it -- the suffering, the loss --

只要想想 －死亡所帶來的痛苦及損失 －

it's also, economically, enormously wasteful.

從經濟層面來看，更是龐大損失

I just look at the information, and knowledge, and experience

僅就自然死亡 - 特別是年老 -

that is lost due to natural causes of death in general,

來觀察死亡所代表的訊息，知識

and aging, in particular.

及經驗的損失

Suppose we approximated one person with one book?

假如，把一個人看成一本書

Now, of course, this is an underestimation.

當然，這也還是低估了

A person's lifetime of learning and experience

一個人一生的學得的知識及經歷

is a lot more than you could put into a single book.

遠遠多於單單一本書所能包含

But let's suppose we did this.

但，就讓我們先這樣假定

52 million people die of natural causes each year

每年有5千2百萬人自然死亡

corresponds, then, to 52 million volumes destroyed.

基本上，就等於每年有5千2百萬本書被摧毀

Library of Congress holds 18 million volumes.

美國國會圖書館館藏不過1千8百萬本書

We are upset about the burning of the Library of Alexandria.

古亞歷山大圖書館遭焚燬

It's one of the great cultural tragedies

是人類文化大災難之一

that we remember, even today.

我們至今仍為之扼腕

But this is the equivalent of three Libraries of Congress --

但我們談每年死亡人數（5千2百萬）

burnt down, forever lost -- each year.

這可相當每年燒毀三個國會圖書館

So that's the first big problem.

所以，這可是第一個大問題

And I wish Godspeed to Aubrey de Grey,

在這兒，我祝 傲伯芮德格瑞（Aubrey de Grey)

and other people like him,

及其他和他一樣（譯註：研究老化 - Gerontology) 的人好運

to try to do something about this as soon as possible.

儘速對 老化死亡 這個議題找出些頭緒

Existential risk -- the second big problem.

人類生存危機，第二大問題

Existential risk is a threat to human survival, or to the long-term potential of our species.

這對人類存活，或對人類長期潛能來說，都是一項威脅。

Now, why do I say that this is a big problem?

但，我們為什麼要說這是個大問題？

Well, let's first look at the probability --

這樣吧，我們從機率開始探討

and this is very, very difficult to estimate --

這數字很難很難估計

but there have been only four studies on this in recent years,

但近些年來，也不過只有四個相關研究

which is surprising.

這還真讓人意外

You would think that it would be of some interest

你應該認為會有人有興趣

to try to find out more about this given that the stakes are so big,

去探討後果這般嚴重的問題

but it's a very neglected area.

但這問題其實完全不受重視

But there have been four studies --

僅僅就只四個相關研究

one by John Lesley, wrote a book on this.

四個研究裡，就只有 約翰 萊斯利 寫了專書申述

He estimated a probability that we will fail

他估計人類在21世紀裡

to survive the current century: 50 percent.

滅亡的機率為百分之五十

Similarly, the Astronomer Royal, whom we heard speak yesterday,

同樣的，昨天在此演講的皇家天文學家（Astronomer Royal)

also has a 50 percent probability estimate.

也提出一樣的估計：百分之五十的機率

Another author doesn't give any numerical estimate,

還有個作者雖然沒有提出確切數字

but says the probability is significant that it will fail.

但也說人類滅亡的可能性不低

I wrote a long paper on this.

我對此事曾發表了篇長文

I said assigning a less than 20 percent probability would be a mistake

我說要說人類滅亡的機率小於百分之二十，那可就錯了

in light of the current evidence we have.

這是就我們已知的證據來研判

Now, the exact figures here,

對於這裡說的各項數字

we should take with a big grain of salt,

我們當然也不該毫不保留，照章全收

but there seems to be a consensus that the risk is substantial.

但可以看出人類滅亡的危機重大確實是共識

Everybody who has looked at this and studied it agrees.

關心與研究過這個主題的人都同意

Now, if we think about what just reducing

假如，我們思考一下

the probability of human extinction by just one percentage point --

只要把人類可能滅亡的機率減少百分之一

not very much -- so that's equivalent to 60 million lives saved,

不多， 但已經代表保住6千萬條人命

if we just count the currently living people, the current generation.

這還是以本世代人口來計

Now one percent of six billion people is equivalent to 60 million.

60億人的百分之一就是6千萬

So that's a large number.

這可是個大數字

If we were to take into account future generations

我們如果考慮將來的世代

that will never come into existence if we blow ourselves up,

如果我們搞咂了 就沒有機會出生的這些未來人

then the figure becomes astronomical.

那可就成了天文數字

If we could eventually colonize a chunk of the universe --

假如將來人類真有機會殖民宇宙

the Virgo supercluster --

比如說到室女座星系團殖民

maybe it will take us 100 million years to get there,

也許，這件事要在1億年後才會發生

but if we go extinct we never will.

但如果人類滅亡了，當然就不可能發生了

Then, even a one percentage point reduction

所以，甚至只要能把人類滅亡的風險

in the extinction risk could be equivalent

減少小小的一個百分點

to this astronomical number -- 10 to the power of 32.

可以說就是10的32次方這個天文數字的差別

So if you take into account future generations as much as our own,

所以你如果把現在的和將來的人一併考量

every other moral imperative of philanthropic cost just becomes irrelevant.

所有肇因道德因素的慈善作為所花費成本就已完全無關緊要

The only thing you should focus on

我們應該只專注於

would be to reduce existential risk

降低生存危機

because even the tiniest decrease in existential risk

因為在生存危機上就算 最微小的改善

would just overwhelm any other benefit you could hope to achieve.

效果就遠遠超過任何其他作為的成效

And even if you just look at the current people,

就算你只考慮當代人

and ignore the potential that would be lost if we went extinct,

不去計較人類若不滅亡而衍生的種種可能

it should still have a high priority.

這依然是高優先最該做的事

Now, let me spend the rest of my time on the third big problem,

現在，剩下的時間，讓我討論第三個問題

because it's more subtle and perhaps difficult to grasp.

因為這問題更隱晦，也可能很難理解

Think about some time in your life --

試想在你生命裡的某一刻

some people might never have experienced it -- but some people,

有人也許從未有這種體驗 ，但對有些人來說

there are just those moments that you have experienced

在生命中經歷過

where life was fantastic.

人生的美好

It might have been at the moment of some great, creative inspiration

也許是經歷偉大有創意的啟發時刻

you might have had when you just entered this flow stage.

曾經在生命裡經歷這樣的美好

Or when you understood something you had never done before.

或許，對從未做過的事，你突然有所了悟

Or perhaps in the ecstasy of romantic love.

或許，你經歷了情愛的極美

Or an aesthetic experience -- a sunset or a great piece of art.

或者是美的體驗 －美麗的夕陽，或一個很棒的藝術品

Every once in a while we have these moments,

人生中，我們偶爾有這般的體驗

and we realize just how good life can be when it's at its best.

讓我們了解生命可以這般美好

And you wonder, why can't it be like that all the time?

你就想了，為什麼生命不可以一直這般美好？

You just want to cling onto this.

你只想緊緊把握這美麗體驗

And then, of course, it drifts back into ordinary life and the memory fades.

當然，一切也終將回歸平凡，美的記憶也會褪色

And it's really difficult to recall, in a normal frame of mind,

在心情回歸平常後，很難喚回這些美好的回憶

just how good life can be at its best.

想不起生命可以有多美好

Or how bad it can be at its worst.

或是在最糟的時候可以有多糟

The third big problem is that life isn't usually

第三個問題就是

as wonderful as it could be.

生命總是不能一直都美好

I think that's a big, big problem.

我想這是個很大，很大的問題

It's easy to say what we don't want.

我們很容易可以指出我們不要的東西

Here are a number of things that we don't want --

有些東西，我們都不想要

illness, involuntary death, unnecessary suffering, cruelty,

像是疾病，不能盡天年，不必要的受苦，殘酷

stunted growth, memory loss, ignorance, absence of creativity.

發育不全，喪失記憶，無知，缺乏創造力

Suppose we fixed these things -- we did something about all of these.

如果我們能解決 這些缺陷－我們找出方法，解決全部的問題。

We were very successful.

我們很成功

We got rid of all of these things.

成功的擺脫了這些 人們不愛的事物

We might end up with something like this,

我們可能就可以像這樣

which is -- I mean, it's a heck of a lot better than that.

就是...　我想，當然要比這些都好的多

But is this really the best we can dream of?

但這真是我們夢想的極致嗎？

Is this the best we can do?

不能更好嗎？

Or is it possible to find something a little bit more inspiring to work towards?

還是，我們可以找到更激發人心的目標，讓我們繼續努力嗎？

And if we think about this,

如果我們想一想

I think it's very clear that there are ways

我想很顯然地 有一些方法

in which we could change things, not just by eliminating negatives,

來產生改變，不只是排除負面事物

but adding positives.

而是累積好的東西

On my wish list, at least, would be:

至少，我會希望這些

much longer, healthier lives, greater subjective well-being,

好像是 更長壽，更健康，自我感受良好

enhanced cognitive capacities, more knowledge and understanding,

更好的認知能力，更多知識，與對事物的理解

unlimited opportunity for personal growth

無上限的自我成長機會

beyond our current biological limits, better relationships,

超越我們現在的生理上的限制，更棒的人際關係

an unbounded potential for spiritual, moral

不論是精神上，道德上

and intellectual development.

或是智力發展上，都有無限潛能

If we want to achieve this, what, in the world, would have to change?

假如要滿足這些需求，我們究竟得改變些什麼？

And this is the answer -- we would have to change.

答案就是 -- 我們必須改變

Not just the world around us, but we, ourselves.

不是改變我們周遭環境，而是改變我們自己

Not just the way we think about the world, but the way we are -- our very biology.

不只是我們如何看這個世界，而是我們的本質 -- 生物體

Human nature would have to change.

人的本質必須要改變

Now, when we think about changing human nature,

當我們想到改變人的本質

the first thing that comes to mind

首先想到的

are these human modification technologies --

是些改變人的科技

growth hormone therapy, cosmetic surgery,

像 生長賀爾蒙療法，外科整容

stimulants like Ritalin, Adderall, anti-depressants,

利他能，愛得奧（Adderall） 之類的興奮劑 還有抗憂鬱藥物

anabolic steroids, artificial hearts.

合成代謝類固醇，人工心臟

It's a pretty pathetic list.

不是太讓人振奮的一些東西

They do great things for a few people

他們對一部份人幫助很大

who suffer from some specific condition,

對那些受到特定疾病困擾的人都有利

but for most people, they don't really transform

但對大多數人來說

what it is to be human.

這些並無法改變人的本質

And they also all seem a little bit --

也讓人覺得有些那個...

most people have this instinct that, well, sure,

多數人都能了解，對真的受憂鬱所苦的人來說

there needs to be anti-depressants for the really depressed people.

當然需要抗憂鬱藥物的幫助

But there's a kind of queasiness

但多少也讓人有些許坐立難安

that these are unnatural in some way.

認為這並不很自然

It's worth recalling that there are a lot of other

當然我們還有很多其他

modification technologies and enhancement technologies that we use.

修改，增進性質的技術與方法

We have skin enhancements, clothing.

像是保護（增進）皮膚的東西 - 衣物

As far as I can see, all of you are users of this

這演講廳裡，每一個我看的到的人都使用這些東西

enhancement technology in this room, so that's a great thing.

所以這也是件很棒的事情

Mood modifiers have been used from time immemorial --

自有人類以來，我們就一直都都使用影響心情的東西

caffeine, alcohol, nicotine, immune system enhancement,

像 咖啡因，酒精，尼古丁等，以及增強免疫系統的東西

vision enhancement, anesthetics --

改善視力的東西與技術，麻醉等

we take that very much for granted,

我們都視麻醉為理所當然

but just think about how great progress that is --

但想想這是多麼大的進步

like, having an operation before anesthetics was not fun.

比如說，在有麻醉之前，動手術可一點也不好玩

Contraceptives, cosmetics and brain reprogramming techniques --

避孕藥，化妝品，改變腦袋思考的技術等

that sounds ominous,

聽起來嚴重的很

but the distinction between what is a technology --

但科技，這些小玩意

a gadget would be the archetype --

這些我們已經習以為常的東西

and other ways of changing and rewriting human nature is quite subtle.

和其他可以改變人本質的方法 其中差別其實很微妙

So if you think about what it means to learn arithmetic or to learn to read,

所以，只要想想，學算數，學識字

you're actually, literally rewriting your own brain.

你其實就真的是在改造你的腦袋思考方式

You're changing the microstructure of your brain as you go along.

你一邊學習，同時就在改變腦袋裡的微小的結構

So in a broad sense, we don't need to think about technology

所以，就一個比較寬廣的層面來說，我們不必把科技

as only little gadgets, like these things here,

當成是我們剛才所提到的那些小玩意

but even institutions and techniques,

而甚至該是大規模的組織及技術

psychological methods and so forth.

像是運用心理學的方法等等

Forms of organization can have a profound impact on human nature.

組織型態都對人的本質有極深遠的影響

Looking ahead, there is a range of technologies

未來，還有好多各式各樣的科技

that are almost certain to be developed sooner or later.

幾可確定遲早要發展出來

We are very ignorant about what the time scale for these things are,

我們完全不知這些新東西何時會出現

but they all are consistent with everything we know

但他們其實都是根據我們了解的

about physical laws, laws of chemistry, etc.

物理，化學的定理 等而發展

It's possible to assume,

我們很可以假設

setting aside a possibility of catastrophe,

若是不考慮人類可能滅亡這個災難

that sooner or later we will develop all of these.

遲早，這些都會被開發出來

And even just a couple of these would be enough

甚至只要一兩樣被開發出來

to transform the human condition.

就足以改變人類的現況

So let's look at some of the dimensions of human nature

那我們現在就看看人類本質裡

that seem to leave room for improvement.

幾個還可以改進的面向

Health span is a big and urgent thing,

健康，很重要也急迫

because if you're not alive,

因為沒有了生命

then all the other things will be to little avail.

其他的一切就沒意義了

Intellectual capacity -- let's take that box,

智慧能力 ─ 就這一項來說吧

which falls into a lot of different sub-categories:

很多東西都需要智慧能力

memory, concentration, mental energy, intelligence, empathy.

像記憶力，專心，心智的精力，聰明，同理心等

These are really great things.

這些都是好東西

Part of the reason why we value these traits

我們所以看重這些特質

is that they make us better at competing with other people --

部分理由在這些能力讓我們有能力和他人競爭

they're positional goods.

所以可以說他們有助競位

But part of the reason --

但另有部分理由

and that's the reason why we have ethical ground for pursuing these --

也就是我們所以能正大光明追求這些能力的原因

is that they're also intrinsically valuable.

在他們本身有實質的價值

It's just better to be able to understand more of the world around you

有能了解你周遭的環境的能力

and the people that you are communicating with,

了解和你溝通的人

and to remember what you have learned.

記得你學過的東西，就是比較好

Modalities and special faculties.

這些是慣常行為及特殊能力

Now, the human mind is not a single unitary information processor,

人的心智不是一個單一單面向的訊息處理器

but it has a lot of different, special, evolved modules

而是由許多不同的，專門且高度發展的模組與能力

that do specific things for us.

組合而成以 讓我們得以做特定事情

If you think about what we normally take as giving life a lot of its meaning --

想想賦予生命意義的許多東西

music, humor, eroticism, spirituality, aesthetics,

音樂，幽默，情色，精神上的訴求，美

nurturing and caring, gossip, chatting with people --

愛護教養，照護，閒言斐語，聊天等

all of these, very likely, are enabled by a special circuitry

所有這些，非常可能是因為人類

that we humans have,

某個非常特殊的組織而來

but that you could have another intelligent life form that lacks these.

但，我們也可以想像其他有智慧的生命體，完全沒有這些人類獨有的組織

We're just lucky that we have the requisite neural machinery

我們有幸能有這些神經組織

to process music and to appreciate it and enjoy it.

去處理，體會，並享受音樂

All of these would enable, in principle -- be amenable to enhancement.

這些原則上都促成我們的能力 ，我們也有機會增進這些能力

Some people have a better musical ability

有些人音樂能力強些

and ability to appreciate music than others have.

能比其他人更能享受音樂之美

It's also interesting to think about what other things are --

人類的一些其他能力也挺有趣

so if these all enabled great values,

假使這些能力都促成很棒的價值

why should we think that evolution has happened to provide us

那麼為什麼人類的進化

with all the modalities we would need to engage

會產生這麼多在人類活動中所必須有的能力

with other values that there might be?

以及其他各種不同的可能價值？

Imagine a species

想像有一個物種

that just didn't have this neural machinery for processing music.

沒有處理音樂的神經構造

And they would just stare at us with bafflement

他們就只能困惑的看著我們

when we spend time listening to a beautiful performance,

搞不清楚為什麼我們花時間聆聽優美的演奏

like the one we just heard -- because of people making stupid movements,

就好像我們該才才聽到的音樂， 還有人莫名的隨音樂節拍晃動

and they would be really irritated and wouldn't see what we were up to.

他們會很不高興，搞不清楚我們究竟在幹什麼

But maybe they have another faculty, something else

但他們可能有不同的能力，某些我們沒有的

that would seem equally irrational to us,

讓我們也覺得莫名其妙和不高興

but they actually tap into some great possible value there.

但他們也可能正促成某些很棒的價值

But we are just literally deaf to that kind of value.

但我們就真的是搞不懂他們追求的價值

So we could think of adding on different,

這就讓我們想像如果增加不同的

new sensory capacities and mental faculties.

感官或心智上的能力

Bodily functionality and morphology and affective self-control.

身體上的功能，身體的蛻變，基於喜惡的自我控制

Greater subjective well-being.

更棒的自我主觀感受

Be able to switch between relaxation and activity --

能動能靜，隨心所欲

being able to go slow when you need to do that, and to speed up.

要快得快，要慢則慢

Able to switch back and forth more easily

更容易的在不同狀態中來回轉換

would be a neat thing to be able to do --

能這樣一定很不錯

easier to achieve the flow state,

更容易達成流暢的狀態

when you're totally immersed in something you are doing.

完全沈浸於你所專注的事情中

Conscientiousness and sympathy.

高度自主自覺，也能感受他人

The ability to -- it's another interesting application

更有意思的一個可能，如果能 ...

that would have large social ramification, perhaps.

也許這也可能有大規模的社會迴響

If you could actually choose to preserve your romantic attachments to one person,

如果你真有能力決定延續你對一個人的愛情

undiminished through time,

不因時間流逝而消減

so that wouldn't have to -- love would never have to fade if you didn't want it to.

這樣愛就不會消逝，除非你決定自己放棄

That's probably not all that difficult.

這可能不會太困難

It might just be a simple hormone or something that could do this.

也許只要簡單改變賀爾蒙，或什麼的就可以做到

It's been done in voles.

這已經田鼠身上做到了

You can engineer a prairie vole to become monogamous

你可以人工培育出一隻 從一而終 的田鼠

when it's naturally polygamous.

但這些田鼠天性是多伴侶的

It's just a single gene.

只要改動單一基因

Might be more complicated in humans, but perhaps not that much.

在人身上可能要更複雜，但也不至於太複雜

This is the last picture that I want to --

這就是這張最後的圖片想顯示的

now we've got to use the laser pointer.

看來得用雷射筆幫我一下

A possible mode of being here would be a way of life --

一個可能的存在模式，一種生活方式

a way of being, experiencing, thinking, seeing,

一種存在，體驗，思考，觀察

interacting with the world.

與世界互動的一種方式

Down here in this little corner, here, we have the little sub-space

在這個角落這裡，這個小圓形代表人類

of this larger space that is accessible to human beings --

人類在這個大些的空間中所佔有的部分

beings with our biological capacities.

代表我們生物面上的能力

It's a part of the space that's accessible to animals;

這一部份只是動物界能力的一部份

since we are animals, we are a subset of that.

因為人也是動物，所以某些屬於動物的能力，我們也有

And then you can imagine some enhancements of human capacities.

然後，想像我們能增進人類的能力

There would be different modes of being you could experience

這會是人類可以體驗的不同存在模式

if you were able to stay alive for, say, 200 years.

當然，假設你可以活個兩百年

Then you could live sorts of lives and accumulate wisdoms

那你就可以過很多樣的生活，也累積智慧

that are just not possible for humans as we currently are.

但就現在的人類來看，這不可能發生

So then, you move off to this larger sphere of "human +,"

所以，活的長久，那你就有機會發展到這個較大的「人類+」範疇

and you could continue that process and eventually

這個過程就可以持續，最後呢

explore a lot of this larger space of possible modes of being.

這廣大的部分都可能成為人類存活的模式

Now, why is that a good thing to do?

為什麼這是件好事？

Well, we know already that in this little human circle there,

這麼說吧，我們就現在的小範圍內

there are these enormously wonderful and worthwhile modes of being --

已經有了這麼多美好又值得的生存方式

human life at its best is wonderful.

這是人類生活的極美

We have no reason to believe that within this much, much larger space

我們就沒理由認為，如果有更大更多的可能

there would not also be extremely worthwhile modes of being,

我們不能發現更多更好更棒的存在

perhaps ones that would be way beyond our wildest ability

甚至遠遠超過我們最狂野

even to imagine or dream about.

的想像與夢想

And so, to fix this third problem,

所以，要解決這第三個問題

I think we need -- slowly, carefully, with ethical wisdom and constraint --

我認為我們需要 - 緩慢，小心，以智慧處理倫理議題，自制的 -

develop the means that enable us to go out in this larger space and explore it

發展出那些能讓我們能突破現狀，探索未知的能力

and find the great values that might hide there.

探索，尋找在那些未知中可能隱藏的價值

Thanks.

謝謝