Lisa Margonelli: The political chemistry of oil

翻译人员: Guo Tang 校对人员: Qian Yue

So I'm going to talk to you about you about the political chemistry of oil spills

我想谈谈石油泄漏的政治化学结构，

and why this is an incredibly important,

以及为什么这一点很重要，

long, oily, hot summer,

冗长油腻的酷暑，

and why we need to keep ourselves from getting distracted.

我们又为什么需要保持注意力集中。

But before I talk about the political chemistry,

但在我谈政治之前，

I actually need to talk about the chemistry of oil.

让我先讲讲石油的化学性质。

This is a photograph from when I visited

这张照片摄于

Prudhoe Bay in Alaska in 2002

二零零二年我探访阿拉斯加的普拉德霍湾时

to watch the Minerals Management Service

我当时是去去察看美国矿产管理局

testing their ability

测试他们

to burn oil spills in ice.

在冰里燃烧石油泄漏的能力。

And what you see here is, you see a little bit of crude oil,

现在你可以看到一些原油，

you see some ice cubes,

你可以看到一些冰块，

and you see two sandwich baggies of napalm.

你还可以看到两个塑胶袋装的凝固汽油。

The napalm is burning there quite nicely.

那些凝固汽油燃烧得很不错。

And the thing is, is that

这其实是说

oil is really an abstraction for us as the American consumer.

石油实际上对我们美国消费者来说是一个很抽象的东西。

We're four percent of the world's population;

我们占世界人口的百分之四；

we use 25 percent of the world's oil production.

我们使用世界石油生产量的百分之二十五。

And we don't really understand what oil is,

我们却并不知道什么是石油，

until you check out its molecules,

直到你测试了它的分子，

And you don't really understand that until you see this stuff burn.

直到你看到这个东西燃烧，你才会理解它。

So this is what happens as that burn gets going.

这就是燃烧时的情况。

It takes off. It's a big woosh.

然后它“呼”的一声，就熄灭了。

I highly recommend that you get a chance to see crude oil burn someday,

我强烈建议你找个机会去看看原油燃烧，

because you will never need to hear another poli sci lecture

因为你将永远不再需要去听

on the geopolitics of oil again.

关于石油的地缘政治学的政治科学讲座。

It'll just bake your retinas.

它将烘烤你的视网膜。

So there it is; the retinas are baking.

这就是，视网膜正在被烘烤。

Let me tell you a little bit about this chemistry of oil.

让我来给你们讲讲石油的化学成分。

Oil is a stew of hydrocarbon molecules.

石油是碳氢化合物分子的混合物。

It starts of with the very small ones,

它从非常小的分子开始，

which are one carbon, four hydrogen --

是一个碳，四个氢--

that's methane -- it just floats off.

那是甲烷--它会漂走。

Then there's all sorts of intermediate ones with middle amounts of carbon.

然后这些中间的分子含有中等含量的碳。

You've probably heard of benzene rings; they're very carcinogenic.

你大概听说过苯环；它们是高度致癌的。

And it goes all the way over

然后到了

to these big, thick, galumphy ones that have hundreds of carbons,

这些巨大的，密集的，笨重的分子含有数百个碳，

and they have thousands of hydrogens,

它们有数千个氢，

and they have vanadium and heavy metals and sulfur

它们还含有钒，重金属和硫磺

and all kinds of craziness hanging off the sides of them.

还有各种奇怪的分子悬挂在它们的侧面。

Those are called the asphaltenes; they're an ingredient in asphalt.

那些叫做沥青烯；它们是沥青的成分。

They're very important in oil spills.

它们在石油泄漏中十分的重要。

Let me tell you a little bit about

让我来给你们讲讲这些

the chemistry of oil in water.

在水中的石油的化学性质。

It is this chemistry that makes oil so disastrous.

正是这种化学性质导致石油具有极大的灾害性。

Oil doesn't sink, it floats.

石油不下沉，石油漂浮。

If it sank, it would be a whole different story as far as an oil spill.

如果它下沉，那石油泄漏将是一个完全不同的故事了。

And the other thing it does is it spreads out the moment it hits the water.

另外一件事就是当石油一接触到水便扩散开来。

It spreads out to be really thin,

它扩散到十分的薄，

so you have a hard time corralling it.

因此会很难将其围堵起来。

The next thing that happens

接下来发生的事情

is the light ends evaporate,

就是那些轻的物质会挥发，

and some of the toxic things float into the water column

一些有毒物质漂浮到水层中

and kill fish eggs

杀死鱼卵

and smaller fish and things like that, and shrimp.

和一些小鱼，小虾。

And then the asphaltenes -- and this is the crucial thing --

然后沥青烯--这是决定的东西--

the asphaltenes get whipped by the waves

沥青烯被波浪拍打成

into a frothy emulsion, something like mayonnaise.

充满泡沫的乳状液，像蛋黄酱一样。

It triples the amount

它增加三倍

of oily, messy goo that you have in the water,

那些在水中的油腻的，肮脏的粘状物的总量

and it makes it very hard to handle.

并且它使得很难去处理。

It also makes it very viscous.

它也使得它（泄漏的石油）变得很粘滞。

When the Prestige sank off the coast of Spain,

当威望号油轮在西班牙海岸沉没后，

there were big, floating cushions the size of sofa cushions

沙发垫大小的如胶状的石油层

of emulsified oil,

漂浮在海面，

with the consistency, or the viscosity, of chewing gum.

就像粘滞性的口香糖。

It's incredibly hard to clean up.

清理的困难程度让人难以置信。

And every single oil is different when it hits water.

并且每一滴接触到水面的油都不同。

When the chemistry of the oil and water

当石油和水的化学成分

also hits our politics,

同样地触及到政治，

it's absolutely explosive.

一场爆发是无法避免的。

For the first time, American consumers

美国消费者第一次，

will kind of see the oil supply chain in front of themselves.

直面石油供应链。

They have a "eureka!" moment,

他们会有“我发现了！”的一瞬间，

when we suddenly understand oil in a different context.

那一刻我们从另一个角度重新认识了石油。

So I'm going to talk just a little bit about the origin of these politics,

因此，我将简短的讲述一下这些政治的起源，

because it's really crucial to understanding

因为这对了解

why this summer is so important, why we need to stay focused.

为什么这个夏天是如此重要，为什么我们需要关注它至关重要。

Nobody gets up in the morning and thinks,

没有人早晨起来后想，

"Wow! I'm going to go buy

“哇！我要把一些三碳到十二碳的分子

some three-carbon-to-12-carbon molecules to put in my tank

装到我的油箱里

and drive happily to work."

然后开心地开车去上班。”

No, they think, "Ugh. I have to go buy gas.

不，他们想的是，“哎，我得去买汽油。

I'm so angry about it. The oil companies are ripping me off.

太生气了。这些石油公司分明是在敲竹杠。

They set the prices, and I don't even know.

我对他们如何决定价格毫不知情。

I am helpless over this."

太无助了。”

And this is what happens to us at the gas pump --

这就是我们在加油站所发生的事情。

and actually, gas pumps are specifically designed

实际上，加油站是被精心策划了的

to diffuse that anger.

目的是减轻我们的愤怒。

You might notice that many gas pumps, including this one,

你也许会发现很多加油站，包括这个，

are designed to look like ATMs.

看上去好像自动取款机。

I've talked to engineers. That's specifically to diffuse our anger,

我曾与工程师谈论过，这设计就是为了减轻我们的愤怒感，

because supposedly we feel good about ATMs.

因为我们天生对自动取款机有好感。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

That shows you how bad it is.

看看它有多么坏。

But actually, I mean, this feeling of helplessness

但是事实上，我所说的这种无助感

comes in because most Americans actually feel

是指大多数美国人认定

that oil prices are the result of a conspiracy,

汽油的价格是一种密谋，

not of the vicissitudes of the world oil market.

而非世界石油市场的盛衰。

And the thing is, too,

但要命的是，

is that we also feel very helpless about the amount that we consume,

我们对消费总量也一无所知，

which is somewhat reasonable,

这多少也合理，

because in fact, we have designed this system

实际上我们设计了这个系统，

where, if you want to get a job,

如果你想找个工作，

it's much more important to have a car that runs,

首先得有一辆能跑的车，

to have a job and keep a job, than to have a GED.

为了找到并维持这份工作，得有一个汽油发动机驱动装置(注：GED:Gasoline Engine Driven)

And that's actually very perverse.

其实这很荒谬。

Now there's another perverse thing about the way we buy gas,

另外一件反常的事情是关于我们买汽油

which is that we'd rather be doing anything else.

也就是我们宁可做点别的事情。

This is BP's gas station

这是英国石油公司BP（注：BP:British Petroleum)的加油站

in downtown Los Angeles.

在洛杉矶的市中心。

It is green. It is a shrine to greenishness.

它是绿色的，它仿佛一座绿色圣殿。

"Now," you think, "why would something so lame

现在请你想想，“为什么一些本无说服力的东西

work on people so smart?"

能如此巧妙地说服人们？”

Well, the reason is, is because, when we're buying gas,

原因在于：当我们买汽油时，

we're very invested in this sort of cognitive dissonance.

我们产生了某种认知失调。

I mean, we're angry at the one hand and we want to be somewhere else.

我们一方面很生气，我们想去别的地方，

We don't want to be buying oil;

而不是站在这儿买汽油；

we want to be doing something green.

另一方面，我们又想做些绿色环保的事情。

And we get kind of in on our own con.

我们陷入了自己设计的矛盾之中。

I mean -- and this is funny,

这挺有意思的。

it looks funny here.

看起来很可笑。

But in fact, that's why the slogan "beyond petroleum" worked.

但是实际上这就是为什么“超越石油”这个标语能起作用。

But it's an inherent part of our energy policy,

作为能源政策固有的一个部分，

which is we don't talk about

我们不去谈论

reducing the amount of oil that we use.

怎样减少我们使用石油的总量。

We talk about energy independence. We talk about hydrogen cars.

我们谈论能源独立。我们谈论氢能汽车。

We talk about biofuels that haven't been invented yet.

我们谈论还没有被发明出来的生物能源。

And so, cognitive dissonance

因此，认知失调

is part and parcel of the way that we deal with oil,

是我们对待石油的一部分，

and it's really important to dealing with this oil spill.

并且它也对处理石油泄漏十分重要。

Okay, so the politics of oil

石油政治

are very moral in the United States.

在美国是很有道义的。

The oil industry is like a huge, gigantic octopus

石油业就像一只巨大的章鱼，

of engineering and finance

它涉及工程、金融

and everything else,

以及其他所有的行业，

but we actually see it in very moral terms.

但是实际上我们认为它很有道德。

This is an early-on photograph -- you can see, we had these gushers.

这是较早前的一张照片。你可以看到，这里有些喷油井。

Early journalists looked at these spills,

早前的一些记者看到这些泄漏，

and they said, "This is a filthy industry."

他们说，“这是一个肮脏的产业。”

But they also saw in it

但是他们也看到

that people were getting rich for doing nothing.

人们什么都不用做就可以赚大笔钱。

They weren't farmers, they were just getting rich for stuff coming out of the ground.

他们不是农民，他们却靠土地上冒出来的东西发财。

It's the "Beverly Hillbillies," basically.

这根本就是“豪门新人类”（注：Beverly Hillbillies 60年代美国喜剧）。

But in the beginning, this was seen as a very morally problematic thing,

刚开始时，这件事的道德问题是有争论的，

long before it became funny.

早在它变得有趣之前。

And then, of course, there was John D. Rockefeller.

然后，当然，这里是约翰 D. 洛克菲勒。

And the thing about John D. is that

关于约翰 D.的是

he went into this chaotic wild-east

他进入了这个混乱的

of oil industry,

石油产业，

and he rationalized it

他使之合理化

into a vertically integrated company, a multinational.

成为了一个纵向整合的公司，一个跨国公司。

It was terrifying; you think Walmart is a terrifying business model now,

这是极可怕的。你现在认为沃尔玛是个可怕的经营模式，

imagine what this looked like in the 1860s or 1870s.

想象一下这些在一八六零年或者一八七零年代是什么样子。

And it also the kind of root

这也是

of how we see oil as a conspiracy.

我们视石油(行业)为一个密谋的根源。

But what's really amazing is that

但是真正惊人的是

Ida Tarbell, the journalist,

记者艾达 塔贝尔，

went in and did a big exposé of Rockefeller

走进并且曝光了洛克菲勒的内幕，

and actually got the whole antitrust laws

接着推进了

put in place.

完整的反垄断法。

But in many ways,

但是在很多方面，

that image of the conspiracy still sticks with us.

密谋的印象始终缠绕着我们。

And here's one of the things

其中有一件事情

that Ida Tarbell said --

艾达 塔贝尔说过。

she said, "He has a thin nose like a thorn.

她说，“他有一个像刺一般细的鼻子。

There were no lips.

没有嘴唇。

There were puffs under the little colorless eyes

他无生气的眼睛下有鼓起的眼袋

with creases running from them."

布满皱纹。“

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Okay, so that guy is actually still with us.

所以那个人仍然和我们在一起。

(Laughter)

(笑声)

I mean, this is a very pervasive -- this is part of our DNA.

我的意思是，这是一个非常普遍的--这是我们基因的一部分。

And then there's this guy, okay.

然后这个人在这里。

So, you might be wondering why it is that,

所以，你可能想知道为什么

every time we have high oil prices or an oil spill,

每次我们有了高价石油或者石油泄漏，

we call these CEOs down to Washington,

我们把这些首席执行官叫到华盛顿，

and we sort of pepper them with questions in public and we try to shame them.

公开地接二连三地问他们，试图羞辱他们。

And this is something that we've been doing since 1974,

这就是从一九七四年以来我们一直在做的，

when we first asked them, "Why are there these obscene profits?"

当我们第一次问他们，“为什么这有肮脏的利润？”

And we've sort of personalized the whole oil industry

我们似乎将整个石油行业当成

into these CEOs.

首席执行官们个人的产业。

And we take it as, you know --

我们尝试

we look at it on a moral level,

从道德角度去看待它，

rather than looking at it on a legal and financial level.

而不是从一个法律和金融的角度去看它。

And so I'm not saying these guys aren't liable to answer questions --

我并不是说这些人没有资格回答问题，

I'm just saying that, when you focus on

我只是说，当你关注

whether they are or are not a bunch of greedy bastards,

他们是否是一群贪婪的混蛋，

you don't actually get around to the point

你实际上并没有找到重点

of making laws that are either going to either change the way they operate,

即，你必须制定法律改变他们运营的方式，

or you're going to get around

或者你开始

to really reducing the amount of oil

认真地减少石油消费量，

and reducing our dependence on oil.

减少我们对于石油的依赖程度。

So I'm saying this is kind of a distraction.

因此我说这是种分心。

But it makes for good theater,

但是这是一个很好的噱头，

and it's powerfully cathartic as you probably saw last week.

非常有力，正如你上个星期所看到的。

So the thing about water oil spills

关于石油泄漏最重要的

is that they are very politically galvanizing.

是它们带有很强的政治争议。

I mean, these pictures -- this is from the Santa Barbara spill.

我的意思是，那些照片--这是来自于圣巴巴拉市的石油泄漏。

You have these pictures of birds.

这是些鸟的照片。

They really influence people.

它们的确影响着人们。

When the Santa Barbara spill happened in 1969,

一九六九年，圣巴巴拉市的石油泄漏，

it formed the environmental movement in its modern form.

促成了现代化的环保运动，

It started Earth Day.

开创了地球日。

It also put in place the National Environmental Policy Act,

它也同时推进了国家环境政策法案，

the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act.

洁净空气法案，和洁净水法案。

Everything that we are really stemmed from this period.

所有的一切都起源于这个时期。

I think it's important to kind of look at these pictures of the birds

我认为观察一下这些鸟的照片很重要

and understand what happens to us.

并且了解我们周围发生了什么。

Here we are normally;

经常性的，

we're standing at the gas pump, and we're feeling kind of helpless.

我们站在加油站，感觉很无助。

We look at these pictures

我们看着这些照片，

and we understand, for the first time, our role in this supply chain.

然后我们第一次明白了，我们在供应链上的角色。

We connect the dots in the supply chain.

我们将供应链上的这些点链接起来。

And we have this kind of --

然后我们似乎--

as voters, we have kind of a "eureka!" moment.

作为投票者，我们有了一个“我发现了”的时刻。

This is why these moments of these oil spills

这就是为什么这些石油泄漏的瞬间

are so important.

是如此的重要。

But it's also really important that we don't get distracted

但是我们不

by the theater or the morals of it.

被这噱头或者是它的道义所转移注意力也是很重要的。

We actually need to go in

我们的确需要深入问题的根源，

and work on the roots of the problem.

并且解决问题。

One of the things that happened with the two previous oil spills

前两次石油泄漏

was that we really worked on some of the symptoms.

我们致力于解决某些症状。

We were very reactive, as opposed to being proactive

我们并非主动，而是十分被动地

about what happened.

接受所发生的事情。

And so what we did was, actually,

因此我们仅仅是，

we made moratoriums on the east and west coasts on drilling.

暂缓了在东海岸和西海岸的钻油。

We stopped drilling in ANWR,

我们停止了在北极野生生物国家保护区的钻油（注：ANWR:Arctic National Wildlife Refuge）

but we didn't actually reduce the amount of oil that we consumed.

但是我们实际上并没有减少石油的消费量。

In fact, it's continued to increase.

事实上，消费在持续增加。

The only thing that really reduces the amount of oil that we consume

唯一能减少我们消费石油的办法就是

is much higher prices.

较高的价格。

As you can see, our own production has fallen off

正如你所见，我们的生产量已经减少了

as our reservoirs have gotten old and expensive to drill out.

由于我们油库已经变得陈旧并且钻油也十分昂贵。

We only have two percent of the world's oil reserves;

我们仅有世界石油储藏量的百分之二。

65 percent of them are in the Persian Gulf.

百分之六十五的石油储藏在波斯湾。

One of the things that's happened because of this

这也导致了另一件事的发生。

is that, since 1969,

自一九六九年起，

the country of Nigeria, or the part of Nigeria that pumps oil,

尼日利亚，或者说尼日利亚的产油区，

which is the delta -- which is two times the size of Maryland --

也就是三角洲--面积约为马里兰州两倍大小--

has had thousands of oil spills a year.

每年发生数千起石油泄漏事件。

I mean, we've essentially been exporting oil spills

这就好像出口石油泄漏。

when we import oil from places

当我们从那些

without tight environmental regulations.

缺乏严谨环境管理的地区进口石油，

That has been the equivalent of an Exxon Valdez spill

这与埃克森-瓦尔迪兹号油轮泄漏事件相同，

every year since 1969.

一九六九年起的每一年都是如此。

And we can wrap our heads around the spills,

我们完全了解石油泄漏，

because that's what we see here,

因为我们目睹了这里所发生的一切，

but in fact, these guys actually live in a war zone.

这些人所居住的是一个战区。

There's a thousand battle-related deaths a year

这里每年有数千人死于交战，

in this area twice the size of Maryland,

就在这个有着马里兰州两倍大面积的地方，

and it's all related to the oil.

这都与石油有关。

And these guys, I mean, if they were in the U.S.,

这些人如果生活在美国，

they might be actually here in this room.

他们可能就在这个房间里。

They have degrees in political science, degrees in business --

他们有可能有政治学或者商学学位。

they're entrepreneurs. They don't actually want to be doing what they're doing.

他们是企业家。他们事实上并不想做他们所从事的。

And it's sort of one of the other groups of people

这其实是另外一群人

who pay a price for us.

他们为我们付出代价。

The other thing that we've done,

我们所做的另外一件事，

as we've continued to increase demand,

由于我们持续增长需求，

is that we kind of play a shell game with the costs.

实则用成本来玩一个骗局。

One of the places we put in a big oil project

其中一个正在进行的一个巨大的石油项目的地方

in Chad, with Exxon.

是在乍得，由埃克森石油公司负责。

So the U.S. taxpayer paid for it;

美国纳税人为此买单，

the World Bank, Exxon paid for it.

世界银行，埃克森石油公司也为此付账。

We put it in. There was a tremendous banditry problem.

这是一个巨大的盗匪问题。

I was there in 2003.

二零零三年的时候我在那里。

We were driving along this dark, dark road,

我们沿着这个很黑很黑的路行驶，

and the guy in the green stepped out,

有个穿着绿色衣服的人走了出去，

and I was just like, "Ahhh! This is it."

我就说，“啊！这就是。”

And then the guy in the Exxon uniform stepped out,

之后有个穿着埃克森制服的人走了出去，

and we realized it was okay.

于是我们意识到一切正常。

They have their own private sort of army around them at the oil fields.

他们在油田有自己的私人军队驻守。

But at the same time,

但与此同时，

Chad has become much more unstable,

乍得变得更加得不稳定，

and we are not paying for that price at the pump.

我们在加油站并不支付这些代价。

We pay for it in our taxes on April 15th.

我们以四月十五日纳的税来支付这些费用。

We do the same thing

我们做同样的事情

with the price of policing the Persian Gulf

用监管波斯湾的费用

and keeping the shipping lanes open.

来维持海洋航道开放。

This is 1988 --

这是一九八八年。

we actually bombed two Iranian oil platforms that year.

那一年我们炸毁了两座伊朗的石油平台。

That was the beginning of an escalating U.S. involvement there

那时美国刚开始升级对那里的干涉

that we do not pay for at the pump.

我们不在加油站支付（那些干涉的费用）。

We pay for it on April 15th,

我们在四月十五日为此支付，

and we can't even calculate the cost of this involvement.

而我们甚至不能计算出这些干涉的花费。

The other place that is sort of supporting our dependence on oil

另有一个地方，一直支持我们对于石油的依赖，

and our increased consumption

支持我们增加消费，

is the Gulf of Mexico,

就是墨西哥湾，

which was not part of the moratoriums.

而此地并非暂缓钻油的一部分。

Now what's happened in the Gulf of Mexico -- as you can see,

现在在墨西哥湾发生了什么...正如你所见，

this is the Minerals Management diagram

这是关于

of wells for gas and oil.

汽油和石油井的矿产管理图表

It's become this intense industrialized zone.

它变成了如此紧张的工业区。

It doesn't have the same resonance for us

它和我们没有共鸣

that the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge has,

而北极野生生物国家保护区却有，

but it should, I mean, it's a bird sanctuary.

但是它本该是个鸟类保护区。

Also, every time you buy gasoline in the United States,

并且，每一次你在美国买汽油，

half of it is actually being refined along the coast,

其中的一半实际上是在海岸精炼的，

because the Gulf actually has

因为海湾实际上拥有

about 50 percent of our refining capacity

大约百分之五十的精炼生产量

and a lot of our marine terminals as well.

和很多的海运油库。

So the people of the Gulf have essentially been subsidizing the rest of us

因此在海湾的人们实质上是

through a less-clean environment.

通过（生活在）一个较差的环境来补助我们。

And finally, American families also pay a price for oil.

最后，美国的家庭也为石油付出代价。

Now on the one hand, the price at the pump is not really very high

另一方面，在加油站所支付的价格并不是十分高的

when you consider the actual cost of the oil,

当你考虑到石油的实际成本，

but on the other hand,

但在另一方面，

the fact that people have no other transit options

事实是人们没有其他的运输选择

means that they pay a large amount of their income

也就是说他们支付他们工资的很大一部分

into just getting back and forth to work,

用在往返于工作上，

generally in a fairly crummy car.

大部分在一个劣等的车上。

If you look at people who make $50,000 a year, they have two kids,

如果你看到一些人他们一年挣五万美元，有两个孩子，

they might have three jobs or more,

他们可能有三个或多个工作，

and then they have to really commute.

并且他们需要通勤。

They're actually spending more on their car and fuel

他们实际上在汽车和燃油上的花费

than they are on taxes or on health care.

比他们在税和医疗保健上的花费更多。

And the same thing happens

同样的事情发生在

at the 50th percentile, around 80,000.

百分之五十的比例上，大约有八万。

Gasoline costs are a tremendous drain

汽油的成本在

on the American economy,

美国经济上是一个巨大的耗费，

but they're also a drain on individual families

但是它也是每个个体家庭的巨大耗费，

and it's kind of terrifying to think about what happens when prices get higher.

当价格上涨时就很难想象将会发生什么。

So, what I'm going to talk to you about now is:

于是，我现在将向你们讲述的是：

what do we have to do this time?

这一次我们要如何做呢？

What are the laws? What do we have to do to keep ourselves focused?

有哪些法律呢？我们做什么才能保持专注呢？

One thing is -- we need to stay away from the theater.

其一就是，我们需要远离那些噱头。

We need to stay away from the moratoriums.

我们应该远离暂缓钻油。

We need to focus really back again

我们应该回过头来关注

on the molecules.

那些分子。

The moratoriums are fine, but we do need to focus

暂缓钻油是可以的，但是我们需要关注

on the molecules on the oil.

石油的分子。

One of the things that we also need to do,

还有一件事情我们需要去做的，

is we need to try to not kind of fool ourselves

是我们不应该愚弄我们自己

into thinking that you can have a green world,

认为我们不用减少石油用量，

before you reduce the amount of oil that we use.

就可以拥有一个绿色世界。

We need to focus on reducing the oil.

我们需要关注于减少石油。

What you see in this top drawing is a schematic

现在你看到的这个图

of how petroleum gets used in the U.S. economy.

显示了石油在美国整个经济体中的运用。

It comes in on the side -- the useful stuff is the dark gray,

它从这边过来--有用的东西是深灰色的,

and the un-useful stuff,

这些无用的东西,

which is called the rejected energy -- the waste,

被叫做废弃能量，这些废弃物，

goes up to the top.

在上部。

Now you can see that the waste far outweighs

你可以看到这些废弃物大大多于

the actually useful amount.

实际有效用的总量。

And one of the things that we need to do

我们需要做的一件事情

is, not only fix the fuel efficiency of our vehicles

就是，不仅仅稳定我们交通工具的燃油效能

and make them much more efficient,

使它们变得更加有效率，

but we also need to fix the economy in general.

我们还需要稳定我们的经济大局。

We need to remove the perverse incentives to use more fuel.

我们需要尽量避免耗费更多的燃料。

For example, we have an insurance system

例如，我们有一个保险系统

where the person who drives 20,000 miles a year

一个一年内驾驶两万英里的人

pays the same insurance as somebody who drives 3,000.

与一个驾驶了三千英里的人交付同样的保险金。

We actually encourage people to drive more.

这其实是在鼓励人们行驶更长的里程。

We have policies that reward sprawl -- we have all kinds of policies.

我们有奖励杂乱扩张的政策。我们有各种各样的政策。

We need to have more mobility choices.

我们需要更多的灵活性选择。

We need to make the gas price

我们需要使汽油的价格

better reflect the real cost of oil.

更好的反应其真实的成本。

And we need to shift subsidies from the oil industry,

我们要将把对石油工业的补助，

which is at least 10 billion dollars a year,

每年至少一百亿美元，

into something that allows middle-class people to find better ways to commute.

转移到改善那些使中产阶级的人们的处境上。

Whether that's getting a much more efficient car

是否能拥有更高效的汽车

and also kind of building markets

或是创造

for new cars and new fuels down the road,

利用新型汽车和新型燃料的市场

this is where we need to be.

这才是我们需要做的。

We need to kind of rationalize this whole thing,

我们需要把这一切重新整理，

and you can find more about this policy.

你将发现更多关于这一政策的信息。

It's called STRONG, which is "Secure Transportation

这一政策叫做STRONG,” Secure Transportation, Reducing Oil Needs Gradually."

Reducing Oil Needs Gradually,"

“安全运输，并逐步减低石油用量”

and the idea is instead of being helpless, we need to be more strong.

主旨是，与其处在一种无助状态，我们要变得更强。

They're up at NewAmerica.net.

具体的内容在NewAmerica.net（网站）上。

What's important about these

所有这些重要的是

is that we try to move

我们试图将

from feeling helpless at the pump,

在加油站的那种无助感

to actually being active

转变为主动，

and to really sort of thinking about who we are,

认真思考我们是谁，

having kind of that special moment,

在那一特殊的时刻，

where we connect the dots actually at the pump.

在加油站的我们是整个链接上的哪一个环节

Now supposedly, oil taxes

假如，石油税

are the third rail of American politics -- the no-fly zone.

在美国的政治上是一个禁忌的话题--如同禁飞区。

I actually -- I agree that a dollar a gallon on oil

我同意一美元买一加仑的汽油

is probably too much,

是有点贵，

but I think that if we started this year

但是我认为如果我们从今年开始

with three cents a gallon on gasoline,

以一加仑汽油三美分

and upped it to six cents next year, nine cents the following year,

然后明年增加到六美分，后年九美分，

all the way up to 30 cents by 2020,

一直这样增加到二零二零年的三十美分，

that we could actually significantly reduce our gasoline consumption,

如此这般就可以显著地减少我们对汽油的消费，

and at the same time we would give people time to prepare,

同时我们应该给予人们准备的时间，

time to respond,

反应的时间，

and we would be raising money and raising consciousness at the same time.

收入提高的同时，人们的觉悟也在提高。

Let me give you a little sense of how this would work.

让我来用一个简单的道理演示这如何工作。

This is a gas receipt, hypothetically, for a year from now.

这是一张汽油的收据，假设，从现在起一年。

The first thing that you have on the tax is --

首先在这个税上的是，

you have a tax for a stronger America -- 33 cents.

一个对“更强壮的美国”的税--三十三美分。

So you're not helpless at the pump.

如此在加油站的你将不再感觉无助。

And the second thing that you have is a kind of warning sign,

然后这里有一个警告的标示，

very similar to what you would find

与你在香烟盒子上

on a cigarette pack.

看到的警告标示非常相似。

And what it says is, "The National Academy of Sciences

它说的是，“国家科学院

estimates that every gallon of gas you burn in your car

预测您的汽车所燃烧的每一加仑的汽油

creates 29 cents in health care costs."

造成医疗保健的二十九美分代价。”

That's a lot.

这是很多的。

And so this -- you can see that you're paying considerably less

如此一来--你可以看到你支付相当少的

than the health care costs on the tax.

医疗保健费用在税收上。

And also, the hope is that

并且，期望是

you start to be connected to the whole greater system.

你开始和这整个庞大的系统连接起来。

And at the same time, you have a number that you can call

同时，有一个号码你可以拨打

to get more information on commuting,

可以获取更多的关于通勤的信息，

or a low-interest loan on a different kind of car,

或者对一个不同汽车的低息贷款，

or whatever it is you're going to need

无论如何你将

to actually reduce your gasoline dependence.

确实地减少你对汽油的依赖。

With this whole sort of suite of policies,

依据这整套的政策，

we could actually reduce our gasoline consumption --

我们可以实实在在地减少汽油的消费量--

or our oil consumption --

或是石油的消费量--

by 20 percent by 2020.

百分之二十到二零二零年。

So, three million barrels a day.

也就是一天三百万桶。

But in order to do this,

但是为了做这些，

one of the things we really need to do, is we need to remember

有一件事情我们必须要做的就是我们要记得

we are people of the hydrocarbon.

我们是依赖碳氢化合物的人。

We need to keep or minds on the molecules

我们必须集中精力在分子上

and not get distracted by the theater,

不要被噱头所分心，

not get distracted by the cognitive dissonance

不要因为认知失调而分神，

of the green possibilities that are out there.

这里根本不存在绿色可能性。

We need to kind of get down and do the gritty work

我们需要着手认真的做些棘手的工作

of reducing our dependence upon this fuel and these molecules.

来减少我们对这些燃料和分子的依赖性。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）