Lisa Margonelli: The political chemistry of oil

譯者: SCU FAK 審譯者: Adrienne Lin

So I'm going to talk to you about you about the political chemistry of oil spills

我想和大家談談漏油事件的政治化學性質

and why this is an incredibly important,

以及這件事非常重要的原因

long, oily, hot summer,

冗長，油膩，炎熱的夏天

and why we need to keep ourselves from getting distracted.

以及我們必須持續聚焦在這件事情上的原因

But before I talk about the political chemistry,

在我開始談政治化學之前

I actually need to talk about the chemistry of oil.

我必須先談談石油的化學性質

This is a photograph from when I visited

這是一張我在2002年

Prudhoe Bay in Alaska in 2002

造訪阿拉斯加的普拉德霍灣時的照片

to watch the Minerals Management Service

我去巡視礦產管理服務

testing their ability

並測試他們的能力

to burn oil spills in ice.

在寒冰上燃燒漏油

And what you see here is, you see a little bit of crude oil,

在這裡你可以看到一點原油

you see some ice cubes,

一些冰塊

and you see two sandwich baggies of napalm.

看到兩個三明治大小的凝固汽油彈

The napalm is burning there quite nicely.

凝固汽油彈正在燃燒

And the thing is, is that

對於我們這些美國消費者來說

oil is really an abstraction for us as the American consumer.

石油是一種抽象過程

We're four percent of the world's population;

我們的人口佔全世界的4％

we use 25 percent of the world's oil production.

我們卻使用了全世界油產的25％

And we don't really understand what oil is,

然而我們卻不了解石油是什麼

until you check out its molecules,

除非我們來檢視一下它的分子

And you don't really understand that until you see this stuff burn.

在看到這東西燃燒之前，我們也無法徹底了解

So this is what happens as that burn gets going.

這就是石油燃燒的景象

It takes off. It's a big woosh.

它賤起火花，轟的一聲

I highly recommend that you get a chance to see crude oil burn someday,

我強烈推薦大家有機會的話去看一下原油燃燒的景象

because you will never need to hear another poli sci lecture

如此一來你便不需要再去聽別的波利科技講座

on the geopolitics of oil again.

是有關石油地緣政治學的演講了

It'll just bake your retinas.

它將烘烤你的視網膜

So there it is; the retinas are baking.

就像這樣, 烘烤視網膜

Let me tell you a little bit about this chemistry of oil.

讓我來講一下石油的化學性質

Oil is a stew of hydrocarbon molecules.

石油是碳氫化合物分子的混合物

It starts of with the very small ones,

剛開始的時候非常小

which are one carbon, four hydrogen --

1個碳原子,4個氫原子

that's methane -- it just floats off.

這就是漂浮在上面的甲烷

Then there's all sorts of intermediate ones with middle amounts of carbon.

然後還有各種的介質混合中等數量的碳

You've probably heard of benzene rings; they're very carcinogenic.

你們可能聽說過苯環，它的致癌性很高

And it goes all the way over

苯環在散佈整個過程中

to these big, thick, galumphy ones that have hundreds of carbons,

變成這些大型高厚度的東西

and they have thousands of hydrogens,

它們包含數百個碳原子以及數百個氫原子

and they have vanadium and heavy metals and sulfur

還有釩、重金屬和硫

and all kinds of craziness hanging off the sides of them.

以及各種瘋狂的東西緊貼在兩側

Those are called the asphaltenes; they're an ingredient in asphalt.

它們被稱為瀝青質，瀝青的元素

They're very important in oil spills.

它們在漏油事件裡扮演重要的角色

Let me tell you a little bit about

讓我再來講一下

the chemistry of oil in water.

在水裡的石油化學成分

It is this chemistry that makes oil so disastrous.

也是讓石油變成災難的化學成分

Oil doesn't sink, it floats.

石油在水裡不會下沈，而是漂浮在水面

If it sank, it would be a whole different story as far as an oil spill.

如果它真的下沈了，漏油事件就會變的完全不一樣

And the other thing it does is it spreads out the moment it hits the water.

而它的另外一個性質是在它碰到水後會散撥出去。

It spreads out to be really thin,

它散播開來，變成薄薄的一層

so you have a hard time corralling it.

所以你很難將它網起。

The next thing that happens

接下來發生的事是

is the light ends evaporate,

輕烴蒸發

and some of the toxic things float into the water column

和一些有毒的東西飄進水柱

and kill fish eggs

並殺死魚卵

and smaller fish and things like that, and shrimp.

和較小的魚類等，以及蝦子。

And then the asphaltenes -- and this is the crucial thing --

然後還有瀝青質 - 這是關鍵的東西 -

the asphaltenes get whipped by the waves

瀝青質被海浪掀起

into a frothy emulsion, something like mayonnaise.

乳化成泡沫，類似蛋黃醬

It triples the amount

面積變成三倍

of oily, messy goo that you have in the water,

油膩膩的，骯髒混亂的在水中

and it makes it very hard to handle.

這使得它很難處理

It also makes it very viscous.

這也使得它非常粘稠

When the Prestige sank off the coast of Spain,

當威望沉沒在西班牙海岸

there were big, floating cushions the size of sofa cushions

有大的漂浮的沙發墊的大小的靠墊

of emulsified oil,

乳化油

with the consistency, or the viscosity, of chewing gum.

有口香糖一般的濃度及黏稠度

It's incredibly hard to clean up.

非常困難去清理

And every single oil is different when it hits water.

而當它散播在水中每一個油有不同的狀況

When the chemistry of the oil and water

當油和水的化學性質

also hits our politics,

也影響到我們的政治

it's absolutely explosive.

這是相當爆炸性的

For the first time, American consumers

這是第一次，美國消費者

will kind of see the oil supply chain in front of themselves.

將看到石油供應鏈呈現在自己面前

They have a "eureka!" moment,

他們目前有一個“eureka！”

when we suddenly understand oil in a different context.

當我們突然明白石油在不同的狀況

So I'm going to talk just a little bit about the origin of these politics,

那麼，我現在就要談論一點點有關這些政治的起源

because it's really crucial to understanding

因為它是讓我們真正的理解至關要件

why this summer is so important, why we need to stay focused.

為什麼今年夏天是如此重要，為什麼我們需要集中精力

Nobody gets up in the morning and thinks,

沒有人早上起床，然後想著

"Wow! I'm going to go buy

“哇！我要去買

some three-carbon-to-12-carbon molecules to put in my tank

一些3碳到12碳的分子然後放進我的油箱

and drive happily to work."

和然後愉快地開車去工作。“

No, they think, "Ugh. I have to go buy gas.

不，他們會認為，“喔不，我必須去購買天然氣。

I'm so angry about it. The oil companies are ripping me off.

我真是感到不開心。石油公司像在搶劫我。

They set the prices, and I don't even know.

我甚至不知道他們什麼時候會調高價格

I am helpless over this."

這樣會讓我很無奈。“

And this is what happens to us at the gas pump --

這就是發生我們在加油站的狀況。

and actually, gas pumps are specifically designed

而實際上，加油站有特別的設計去

to diffuse that anger.

化解這種憤怒。

You might notice that many gas pumps, including this one,

您可能會注意到，許多加油站，包括這一個，

are designed to look like ATMs.

設計看起來像自動取款機。

I've talked to engineers. That's specifically to diffuse our anger,

我有和工程師談論過。這是專門設計減低我們的憤怒，

because supposedly we feel good about ATMs.

因為據說我們在自動取款機前會感覺良好。

(Laughter)

（眾笑）

That shows you how bad it is.

這表明你是多麼糟糕。

But actually, I mean, this feeling of helplessness

但實際上，我的意思是，這種無奈的感覺

comes in because most Americans actually feel

大多數美國人實際感受到

that oil prices are the result of a conspiracy,

石油價格是一個陰謀的結果

not of the vicissitudes of the world oil market.

不是世界石油市場所形成的。

And the thing is, too,

而事實上也是

is that we also feel very helpless about the amount that we consume,

我們也對於我們消費的金額感到很無奈

which is somewhat reasonable,

這是某些理由

because in fact, we have designed this system

因為，事實上，這是我們造成的

where, if you want to get a job,

在那裡，如果你想找到一份工作，

it's much more important to have a car that runs,

要有車可以開是很重要的

to have a job and keep a job, than to have a GED.

這樣才能有一份工作，保持一份工作

And that's actually very perverse.

而這其實是很反常的

Now there's another perverse thing about the way we buy gas,

現在有另一種有害的東西是有關我們買天然氣

which is that we'd rather be doing anything else.

我們寧願做別的

This is BP's gas station

這是BP的加油站

in downtown Los Angeles.

在洛杉磯市中心

It is green. It is a shrine to greenishness.

它是綠色的。是淺綠色。

"Now," you think, "why would something so lame

現在，你想想，為什麼這東西會如此跛腳

work on people so smart?"

對人卻是這麼聰明？“

Well, the reason is, is because, when we're buying gas,

是的，原因是，因為當我們買天然氣

we're very invested in this sort of cognitive dissonance.

我們非常投入在這樣的認知失調

I mean, we're angry at the one hand and we want to be somewhere else.

我的意思是，一方面，我們感到憤怒，我們想要去別處。

We don't want to be buying oil;

我們不想要去買石油

we want to be doing something green.

我們希望做一些環保的事

And we get kind of in on our own con.

我們被自己哄騙

I mean -- and this is funny,

我的意思是 - 這是很有趣的事

it looks funny here.

在這裡這件事看起來很有趣

But in fact, that's why the slogan "beyond petroleum" worked.

但事實上，這就是為什麼這個口號“超越石油”是有效的。

But it's an inherent part of our energy policy,

但在我們的能源政策中它是一個固有的一部分

which is we don't talk about

這我們不談論

reducing the amount of oil that we use.

減少我們使用石油的數量，

We talk about energy independence. We talk about hydrogen cars.

我們談論能源獨立。我們談論氫汽車。

We talk about biofuels that haven't been invented yet.

我們談論還沒有發明的生物燃料

And so, cognitive dissonance

因此，認知失調

is part and parcel of the way that we deal with oil,

我們處理石油的方式是不可或缺的一部分，

and it's really important to dealing with this oil spill.

處理溢油是真正重要的。

Okay, so the politics of oil

OK，政治石油

are very moral in the United States.

美國是很不道德的。

The oil industry is like a huge, gigantic octopus

石油工業是像一個無底洞

of engineering and finance

對於工程及財務

and everything else,

和其他一切

but we actually see it in very moral terms.

但我們真正看到它在道德上。

This is an early-on photograph -- you can see, we had these gushers.

這是一張早期的照片。你可以看到，我們有這些噴油井。

Early journalists looked at these spills,

記者看著這些早期漏油，

and they said, "This is a filthy industry."

他們說，“這是一個骯髒的行業。”

But they also saw in it

但他們也從中看到了

that people were getting rich for doing nothing.

人們的生活越來越富裕且不勞而獲。

They weren't farmers, they were just getting rich for stuff coming out of the ground.

他們不是農民，他們只是得到豐富的東西出自於地底。

It's the "Beverly Hillbillies," basically.

這是“暴發戶”基本上是這樣。

But in the beginning, this was seen as a very morally problematic thing,

但在一開始，這個被認為是一個非常不道德的事情，

long before it became funny.

不久，就成為笑話。

And then, of course, there was John D. Rockefeller.

當然，還有約翰洛克菲勒。

And the thing about John D. is that

和他有關的的事情是...

he went into this chaotic wild-east

他走進這未開發的東部

of oil industry,

石油工業，

and he rationalized it

他合理化它

into a vertically integrated company, a multinational.

垂直整合成一個公司，一家跨國公司。

It was terrifying; you think Walmart is a terrifying business model now,

這是非常可怕的。就像你認為沃爾瑪現今是一個可怕的商業模式，

imagine what this looked like in the 1860s or 1870s.

這看上去就像19世紀 60年代或19世紀 70年代。

And it also the kind of root

它也是一種

of how we see oil as a conspiracy.

我們如何看到油作為一個陰謀。

But what's really amazing is that

但真正令人驚訝的是，

Ida Tarbell, the journalist,

井田塔貝爾，一位記者，

went in and did a big exposé of Rockefeller

深入了解並爆料洛克菲勒

and actually got the whole antitrust laws

並使得反托拉斯法

put in place.

到位。

But in many ways,

但在許多方面，

that image of the conspiracy still sticks with us.

這種陰謀仍然與我們同在。

And here's one of the things

而在這有一件事

that Ida Tarbell said --

開發協會塔貝爾說。

she said, "He has a thin nose like a thorn.

她說：“他有一個很細的鼻子像一根刺。

There were no lips.

沒有嘴唇。

There were puffs under the little colorless eyes

有無色的小眼睛

with creases running from them."

皺摺的運行他們。“

(Laughter)

（眾笑）

Okay, so that guy is actually still with us.

好了，那傢伙實際上仍然和我們在一起。

(Laughter)

（眾笑）

I mean, this is a very pervasive -- this is part of our DNA.

我的意思是，這是一個非常普遍的 - 這是我們的DNA的一部分。

And then there's this guy, okay.

然後還有這個傢伙，沒問題。

So, you might be wondering why it is that,

所以，你可能想知道為什麼它是，

every time we have high oil prices or an oil spill,

每次我們有高油價或漏油，

we call these CEOs down to Washington,

我們叫這些老總到華盛頓，

and we sort of pepper them with questions in public and we try to shame them.

我們與他們在公眾面前談論問題，我們試圖羞辱他們。

And this is something that we've been doing since 1974,

這些就是我們一直在做的事情，從1947年起

when we first asked them, "Why are there these obscene profits?"

當我們第一次問他們：“為什麼會賺這些黑心錢？”

And we've sort of personalized the whole oil industry

我們已經有點個性化的石油行業

into these CEOs.

就在這些CEO。

And we take it as, you know --

你知道的，我們把它當作

we look at it on a moral level,

我們看它在一個道德水平，

rather than looking at it on a legal and financial level.

而不是看它的法律和財務方面。

And so I'm not saying these guys aren't liable to answer questions --

所以我不是說這些人沒有責任回答問題，

I'm just saying that, when you focus on

我只是想說，當人們關注

whether they are or are not a bunch of greedy bastards,

無論他們是不是一群貪婪的雜種，

you don't actually get around to the point

你實際上並不迴避的問題

of making laws that are either going to either change the way they operate,

制定法律要嘛改變運營方式，

or you're going to get around

否則就會有漏網之魚

to really reducing the amount of oil

真正的石油量減少

and reducing our dependence on oil.

並減少對石油的依賴。

So I'm saying this is kind of a distraction.

所以我說這是一種分散注意力。

But it makes for good theater,

這真是一場好戲

and it's powerfully cathartic as you probably saw last week.

它有力的宣洩，你也許看到的最後一周。

So the thing about water oil spills

因此，對漏油的事件

is that they are very politically galvanizing.

在政治上是非常狂熱的。

I mean, these pictures -- this is from the Santa Barbara spill.

我的意思是，這些照片 - 這是從聖巴巴拉蔓延。

You have these pictures of birds.

你有這些照片的鳥類。

They really influence people.

他們真的影響人。

When the Santa Barbara spill happened in 1969,

當漏油發生在聖巴巴拉 1969年，

it formed the environmental movement in its modern form.

在當時成了最熱門的環保運動。

It started Earth Day.

這就是地球日的由來。

It also put in place the National Environmental Policy Act,

它也設立了國家環境政策法

the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act.

清潔空氣法案，清潔水法案。

Everything that we are really stemmed from this period.

一切真的是源於這個時期。

I think it's important to kind of look at these pictures of the birds

我認為，重要的是要種看看這些照片的鳥類

and understand what happens to us.

並了解其發生在我們身上。

Here we are normally;

我們通常

we're standing at the gas pump, and we're feeling kind of helpless.

站在加油站，而且感到一絲無奈。

We look at these pictures

我們看看這些照片，

and we understand, for the first time, our role in this supply chain.

我們理解，這是第一次，我們的角色在這個供應鏈。

We connect the dots in the supply chain.

我們連接點的供應鏈。

And we have this kind of --

而且我們有這種 -

as voters, we have kind of a "eureka!" moment.

作為選民，我們有一種“尤里卡！”時刻。

This is why these moments of these oil spills

這就是為什麼這些時刻，這些漏油

are so important.

是如此重要。

But it's also really important that we don't get distracted

但我們不要分心也很重要

by the theater or the morals of it.

在看這齣劇或它的道德。

We actually need to go in

我們實際上需要去

and work on the roots of the problem.

與工作有關的問題的根源。

One of the things that happened with the two previous oil spills

其中一個發生的事情與前兩次漏油

was that we really worked on some of the symptoms.

我們真正的工作是針對一些症狀。

We were very reactive, as opposed to being proactive

我們非常被動的，反對預先處裡

about what happened.

將會發生的事。

And so what we did was, actually,

我們所做的是，

we made moratoriums on the east and west coasts on drilling.

提出暫停在東部和西部海岸鑽井。

We stopped drilling in ANWR,

我們停下來鑽 ANWR，

but we didn't actually reduce the amount of oil that we consumed.

但實際上我們並未減少石油的消耗量

In fact, it's continued to increase.

事實上，消耗量仍持續增加

The only thing that really reduces the amount of oil that we consume

唯一可以真正減少石油消耗量的作法

is much higher prices.

是將價格抬高

As you can see, our own production has fallen off

如同您所見到的，我們的產量已經下降

as our reservoirs have gotten old and expensive to drill out.

這是因為儲存槽的老化以及昂貴的開採成本

We only have two percent of the world's oil reserves;

我們只擁有全世界百分之2的石油礦藏。

65 percent of them are in the Persian Gulf.

另外有百分之65在波斯灣。

One of the things that's happened because of this

有一件事即因此而發生

is that, since 1969,

從1969年起

the country of Nigeria, or the part of Nigeria that pumps oil,

在奈及利亞開採石油的地區，

which is the delta -- which is two times the size of Maryland --

這個地區是一個三角洲 --比美國馬里蘭州大上兩倍--

has had thousands of oil spills a year.

但每年都有無數的石油洩漏出去

I mean, we've essentially been exporting oil spills

意思是，這就如同出口石油外洩

when we import oil from places

當我們從另一個地方進口石油，

without tight environmental regulations.

而當地又缺乏嚴謹的環境法規

That has been the equivalent of an Exxon Valdez spill

這就如同Exxon Valdez(阿拉斯加港灣漏油事件)一樣

every year since 1969.

從1969年起，年復一年。

And we can wrap our heads around the spills,

當然我們清楚了解有關石油外洩的一切

because that's what we see here,

是因為我們在這裡看到了所有相關的資訊。

but in fact, these guys actually live in a war zone.

但事實上，這些人是住在戰區

There's a thousand battle-related deaths a year

每年有上千人在這裡死於無情戰火

in this area twice the size of Maryland,

就在這個面積比馬里蘭州大上兩倍的地區

and it's all related to the oil.

這些都和石油息息相關

And these guys, I mean, if they were in the U.S.,

這些人，如果他們都生在美國

they might be actually here in this room.

他們都有可能會在這裡

They have degrees in political science, degrees in business --

他們可能有政治學的學位，也可能會有商學學位

they're entrepreneurs. They don't actually want to be doing what they're doing.

他們更可能是企業家。事實上他們並不想做現在他們正在做的事。

And it's sort of one of the other groups of people

他們其實是另外一群人

who pay a price for us.

另外一群為我們付出無數代價的人

The other thing that we've done,

而另外一件我們所做的事

as we've continued to increase demand,

就是我們持續增加對石油的需求

is that we kind of play a shell game with the costs.

那就像賭博是需要付出代價的

One of the places we put in a big oil project

例如在其中一個我們投資了大型石油開採專案的地區

in Chad, with Exxon.

在查德，由Exxon公司負責主導

So the U.S. taxpayer paid for it;

理所當然，美國納稅人為此專案買單

the World Bank, Exxon paid for it.

世界銀行的部分，Exxon則為其支付了所需的款項

We put it in. There was a tremendous banditry problem.

我們投入許多精力在這個專案。但這其實是一個非常嚴重的竊盜問題

I was there in 2003.

2003年時我在那裡

We were driving along this dark, dark road,

我們沿著這條陰暗的道路駕駛前進，

and the guy in the green stepped out,

然後那位穿著綠色衣服的人走了出去

and I was just like, "Ahhh! This is it."

我說：「阿哈，就是這個了」

And then the guy in the Exxon uniform stepped out,

而後又有一個穿著Exxon公司制服的人走了出去

and we realized it was okay.

我們知道一切都沒問題了

They have their own private sort of army around them at the oil fields.

因為他們擁有私人軍隊駐守在油田周圍

But at the same time,

但就在同時

Chad has become much more unstable,

查德的局勢因此變得更加的不穩定

and we are not paying for that price at the pump.

但是我們在加油站加油時並不會因為這些而負擔任何費用

We pay for it in our taxes on April 15th.

我們只在4月15日納稅時用我們所繳的稅金去支持這個專案

We do the same thing

也同樣以這些

with the price of policing the Persian Gulf

作為監管波斯灣的費用

and keeping the shipping lanes open.

以及維持航道暢通

This is 1988 --

在1988年

we actually bombed two Iranian oil platforms that year.

那一年我們炸毀了兩座伊朗的鑽油平台

That was the beginning of an escalating U.S. involvement there

而且美國對當地的干涉程度正開始逐步上升

that we do not pay for at the pump.

但同樣我們在加油站加油時也不會因為這些而額外支付任何費用

We pay for it on April 15th,

我們同樣只在4月15日時以稅金支付

and we can't even calculate the cost of this involvement.

而且我們甚至無法計算這樣的投入中間所需付出的成本

The other place that is sort of supporting our dependence on oil

還有另外一個同樣支撐著我們對於石油的依賴

and our increased consumption

以及不斷增加的消耗量的地區

is the Gulf of Mexico,

是墨西哥灣

which was not part of the moratoriums.

墨西哥灣並不是暫停開採的地區

Now what's happened in the Gulf of Mexico -- as you can see,

而現在墨西哥灣發生了什麼事...就如同你所見到的

this is the Minerals Management diagram

這是和礦產管理相關

of wells for gas and oil.

在天然氣氣井以及石油部分的圖表

It's become this intense industrialized zone.

這裡已經變成了密密麻麻的工業區

It doesn't have the same resonance for us

雖然這和我們之間並沒有任何共同點

that the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge has,

但與北極國家野生動物保護區卻有

but it should, I mean, it's a bird sanctuary.

因為這裡原本應該是個鳥類保護區

Also, every time you buy gasoline in the United States,

而且當你每次在美國本土購買汽油

half of it is actually being refined along the coast,

實際上約有一半是沿著墨西哥灣海岸精煉的

because the Gulf actually has

因為此海灣大約占了

about 50 percent of our refining capacity

總生產量的百分之50

and a lot of our marine terminals as well.

且擁有許多碼頭

So the people of the Gulf have essentially been subsidizing the rest of us

所以在此海灣生活的人實際上

through a less-clean environment.

是在一不太乾淨的環境下工作，來支撐我們對於石油的需求

And finally, American families also pay a price for oil.

但其實每一個美國家庭也需要為石油付出代價

Now on the one hand, the price at the pump is not really very high

一方面，加油站所制訂的汽油價格並不是太高

when you consider the actual cost of the oil,

我指的是在你考慮了所有與石油相關的成本的情況下

but on the other hand,

但在另一方面

the fact that people have no other transit options

是因為人們沒有其他的交通方式可選擇

means that they pay a large amount of their income

意即這些花費占了收入中的一大部分

into just getting back and forth to work,

但只是為了在工作與回家之間往返

generally in a fairly crummy car.

而且通常是使用相當低等的車種

If you look at people who make $50,000 a year, they have two kids,

如果你看到有人每年賺5萬美元，並有兩個小孩

they might have three jobs or more,

他們可能會有三個工作，甚至是更多

and then they have to really commute.

所以他們需要花費許多時間通勤來回往返

They're actually spending more on their car and fuel

這些人花費於汽車以及燃料的費用

than they are on taxes or on health care.

大於他們納稅的金額或是用於身體保健的花費

And the same thing happens

而且同樣是百分之50

at the 50th percentile, around 80,000.

大約是8萬元

Gasoline costs are a tremendous drain

其實汽油的耗費

on the American economy,

對於美國的經濟而言是一大損失

but they're also a drain on individual families

且對於每個家庭而言也是一筆為數不小的花費

and it's kind of terrifying to think about what happens when prices get higher.

令人只要一想到當汽油價格上漲時發生的情況就感到害怕

So, what I'm going to talk to you about now is:

所以，現在我要說的是

what do we have to do this time?

現在我們需要怎麼做?

What are the laws? What do we have to do to keep ourselves focused?

有哪些相關法令?又有哪些是我們需要持續關注的?

One thing is -- we need to stay away from the theater.

其中一項就是我們需要暫停

We need to stay away from the moratoriums.

我們需要停止關注那些暫停計畫

We need to focus really back again

我們需要再次注意

on the molecules.

石油的分子

The moratoriums are fine, but we do need to focus

雖然延期是好事，但我們仍須注意

on the molecules on the oil.

石油的分子

One of the things that we also need to do,

我們也必需做一件事

is we need to try to not kind of fool ourselves

我們必須試著別再欺騙自己

into thinking that you can have a green world,

去想像你可以有一個環保的環境

before you reduce the amount of oil that we use.

在減少石油用量之前

We need to focus on reducing the oil.

我們必須集中於減少油品的使用

What you see in this top drawing is a schematic

看這個圖就是一個藍圖

of how petroleum gets used in the U.S. economy.

石油在美國經濟中被使用多少

It comes in on the side -- the useful stuff is the dark gray,

換句話說--有用的物質是深灰色的

and the un-useful stuff,

而無用的物質

which is called the rejected energy -- the waste,

稱為不良能源、廢料

goes up to the top.

非常地浪費

Now you can see that the waste far outweighs

你可以了解到廢料遠多於

the actually useful amount.

真正能使用的總計

And one of the things that we need to do

你必須做一件事

is, not only fix the fuel efficiency of our vehicles

就是不單是提升交通工具使用的燃料效率

and make them much more efficient,

也使它們更有效率地被使用

but we also need to fix the economy in general.

但我們也必須使全體的經濟復甦

We need to remove the perverse incentives to use more fuel.

我們必須屏除「多使用燃料」這種不正當的動機

For example, we have an insurance system

舉例來說，我們有一種保險制度

where the person who drives 20,000 miles a year

有人每年駕駛20000哩的地方

pays the same insurance as somebody who drives 3,000.

和有人駕駛3000哩的地方付一樣的保險費

We actually encourage people to drive more.

我們真心鼓勵人們多開一點車

We have policies that reward sprawl -- we have all kinds of policies.

我們有增加獎勵金的政策，有完整的配套

We need to have more mobility choices.

我們必需擁有更多彈性的選擇

We need to make the gas price

我們必需使瓦斯的價格

better reflect the real cost of oil.

能夠更加反映石油的成本

And we need to shift subsidies from the oil industry,

我們必需從製油工廠轉換獎勵金

which is at least 10 billion dollars a year,

一年最少100億

into something that allows middle-class people to find better ways to commute.

來使中產階級找到更好的通勤方式

Whether that's getting a much more efficient car

或是買一輛更節能的車

and also kind of building markets

也像是要建立一個市場

for new cars and new fuels down the road,

給將來使用新燃料的新車

this is where we need to be.

這就是我們要達成的目標

We need to kind of rationalize this whole thing,

我們必需合理化全部的東西

and you can find more about this policy.

你可以找到更多這種政策

It's called STRONG, which is "Secure Transportation

它叫做STRONG

Reducing Oil Needs Gradually,"

是「確實地漸漸減少大眾運輸工具的用油需求」的政策

and the idea is instead of being helpless, we need to be more strong.

這個主意是來自於「解決無助的處境，我們必需更堅強」

They're up at NewAmerica.net.

都在NewAmerica.net.可以找到

What's important about these

重要的是

is that we try to move

我們試著去改變

from feeling helpless at the pump,

對油井感到無助的想法

to actually being active

去變得非常積極主動

and to really sort of thinking about who we are,

真的去想想我們是誰

having kind of that special moment,

給自己一個特別的時間

where we connect the dots actually at the pump.

在政策上做一個有效的結合

Now supposedly, oil taxes

恐怕現在的德克薩斯石油

are the third rail of American politics -- the no-fly zone.

是第三條美國政策--禁飛空域

I actually -- I agree that a dollar a gallon on oil

說真的--我同意一加崙一美元

is probably too much,

可能太貴了

but I think that if we started this year

但我想如果我們開始一年

with three cents a gallon on gasoline,

用三分錢買一加崙的石油

and upped it to six cents next year, nine cents the following year,

在隔年又上漲為六分，下一年就會是九分

all the way up to 30 cents by 2020,

直至2020年上升到30分錢

that we could actually significantly reduce our gasoline consumption,

我們真的能夠明顯地減少石油的消費

and at the same time we would give people time to prepare,

同時我們給人們時間去準備

time to respond,

去做應變措施

and we would be raising money and raising consciousness at the same time.

我們應該要籌錢同時提高自覺

Let me give you a little sense of how this would work.

我來給你認識一下這世界是怎麼運作的

This is a gas receipt, hypothetically, for a year from now.

這是一張瓦斯費的收據，假設從現在開始一年

The first thing that you have on the tax is --

你必需繳的第一張稅單是

you have a tax for a stronger America -- 33 cents.

一份使美國更繁榮的稅--33分錢

So you're not helpless at the pump.

所以在油井，你不是無助的

And the second thing that you have is a kind of warning sign,

你第二個擁有的是一個警告標識

very similar to what you would find

和你可能會找到的非常類似

on a cigarette pack.

一個香菸盒

And what it says is, "The National Academy of Sciences

總是說「國立的科學學術機關

estimates that every gallon of gas you burn in your car

認定你用的車製造每加侖的瓦斯

creates 29 cents in health care costs."

會增加29分你身體上的負擔」

That's a lot.

這太多了

And so this -- you can see that you're paying considerably less

由此你可以了解到你很少注意

than the health care costs on the tax.

自己的健康成本

And also, the hope is that

也希望

you start to be connected to the whole greater system.

你能開始轉到一個比較好的循環

And at the same time, you have a number that you can call

同時，你可以打一個號碼

to get more information on commuting,

取得更多通勤的相關資訊

or a low-interest loan on a different kind of car,

或是低利率的貸款來支付不同款式的車

or whatever it is you're going to need

不論如何你正需要去

to actually reduce your gasoline dependence.

真正的減少你對石油的依賴

With this whole sort of suite of policies,

用一整套政策

we could actually reduce our gasoline consumption --

我們可以真正減少我們的石油消費

or our oil consumption --

或是油品的消費

by 20 percent by 2020.

20%在2020

So, three million barrels a day.

就是一天減少三百萬桶石油

But in order to do this,

但為了這個目的

one of the things we really need to do, is we need to remember

有一件事我們真的必需做，就是我們必需記得

we are people of the hydrocarbon.

我們是由碳水化合物組合成的人類

We need to keep or minds on the molecules

我們必需記住石油的成分

and not get distracted by the theater,

不要被外界所欺騙

not get distracted by the cognitive dissonance

不要被認知所蒙蔽

of the green possibilities that are out there.

還有很多環保的可能性

We need to kind of get down and do the gritty work

減少對石油的依賴

of reducing our dependence upon this fuel and these molecules.

認真地減少對燃料的依賴

Thank you.

謝謝大家

(Applause)

(拍手)