The mathematician who cracked Wall Street | Jim Simons

2,741,748 views ・ 2015-09-25

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Chen Livia 校对人员: dahong zhang
00:12
Chris Anderson: You were something of a mathematical phenom.
0
12817
2834
您可以说是数学界出类拔萃的人物了
00:15
You had already taught at Harvard and MIT at a young age.
1
15675
3064
年轻时就已经在哈佛和麻省理工授课了
00:18
And then the NSA came calling.
2
18763
2190
后来NSA主动找上门来
00:21
What was that about?
3
21464
1204
那是怎么回事呢?
00:23
Jim Simons: Well the NSA -- that's the National Security Agency --
4
23207
3923
NSA就是国家安全局
00:27
they didn't exactly come calling.
5
27154
1969
确切来说 也不是他们找上我的
00:29
They had an operation at Princeton, where they hired mathematicians
6
29465
4474
他们在普林斯顿专设有一个机构
00:33
to attack secret codes and stuff like that.
7
33963
2942
专门雇佣数学家 用于破解密码之类的
00:37
And I knew that existed.
8
37294
1672
我本来就知道这个机构的存在
00:39
And they had a very good policy,
9
39315
2180
他们的政策非常诱人
00:41
because you could do half your time at your own mathematics,
10
41519
3850
因为你可以把半数时间花在你自己的数学研究上
00:45
and at least half your time working on their stuff.
11
45393
3484
还有至少一半的时间要为他们解决事务
00:49
And they paid a lot.
12
49559
1474
而且他们给的报酬很丰厚
00:51
So that was an irresistible pull.
13
51057
3051
这有着无法抵抗的诱惑力
00:54
So, I went there.
14
54132
1912
所以我就去那儿了
00:56
CA: You were a code-cracker.
15
56068
1338
所以你曾是个密码破译者?
00:57
JS: I was.
16
57430
1166
00:58
CA: Until you got fired.
17
58620
1157
直到你被炒了?
00:59
JS: Well, I did get fired. Yes.
18
59801
1583
嗯我确实被炒了,对
01:01
CA: How come?
19
61408
1245
为什么呢?
01:03
JS: Well, how come?
20
63280
1333
啊 为什么呢
01:05
I got fired because, well, the Vietnam War was on,
21
65611
4956
我之所以被解雇是因为
当时正值越南战争之际 我组织内的最高领导是个好战分子
01:10
and the boss of bosses in my organization was a big fan of the war
22
70591
5738
01:16
and wrote a New York Times article, a magazine section cover story,
23
76353
4395
他给《纽约时报》杂志版块的封面故事
01:20
about how we would win in Vietnam.
24
80772
1770
写了一篇关于 我们如何在越南获得胜利的文章
01:22
And I didn't like that war, I thought it was stupid.
25
82566
3129
我不喜欢那场战争 我觉得那很蠢
01:25
And I wrote a letter to the Times, which they published,
26
85719
2665
我给《纽约时报》写了封信 他们后来刊登了出来
01:28
saying not everyone who works for Maxwell Taylor,
27
88408
4014
那封信写了 如果还有人记得Maxwell Taylor(就是他最高领导)的话
01:32
if anyone remembers that name, agrees with his views.
28
92446
4686
不是每个在他手下工作的人 都同意他的观点
01:37
And I gave my own views ...
29
97553
1658
我给出了我自己的观点
01:39
CA: Oh, OK. I can see that would --
30
99235
2164
好吧 我可以想见那将……
01:41
JS: ... which were different from General Taylor's.
31
101423
2555
(我的观点)是和Taylor将军不一样的
01:44
But in the end, nobody said anything.
32
104002
1906
但最后 也没人说什么
01:45
But then, I was 29 years old at this time, and some kid came around
33
105932
3701
后来,我当时是29岁,有个孩子来采访我
01:49
and said he was a stringer from Newsweek magazine
34
109657
3088
说他是《新闻周刊》的特约记者
01:52
and he wanted to interview me and ask what I was doing about my views.
35
112769
5367
他想要与我面谈 问我是如何实践我的观点的
01:58
And I told him, "I'm doing mostly mathematics now,
36
118160
3899
我告诉他 我现在(战争期间)主要是做数学研究
02:02
and when the war is over, then I'll do mostly their stuff."
37
122083
3373
战争结束后 我才会主要给他们做事
02:06
Then I did the only intelligent thing I'd done that day --
38
126123
2825
接着我做了那天最明智的一件事
02:08
I told my local boss that I gave that interview.
39
128972
4157
我告诉我当地的上司 我接受了那个访问
02:13
And he said, "What'd you say?"
40
133153
1459
他问我 你怎么说的?
02:14
And I told him what I said.
41
134636
1466
我就把我说的告诉他了
02:16
And then he said, "I've got to call Taylor."
42
136126
2315
然后他说:“我必须要给Taylor打个电话”
02:18
He called Taylor; that took 10 minutes.
43
138465
2377
他打给了Taylor 花了十分钟
02:20
I was fired five minutes after that.
44
140866
2262
又过了五分钟 我就被解雇了
02:23
CA: OK.
45
143590
1222
OK
02:24
JS: But it wasn't bad.
46
144836
1151
但那并不是一件坏事
02:26
CA: It wasn't bad, because you went on to Stony Brook
47
146011
2493
那并不糟 因为你接下来去了纽约石溪大学
02:28
and stepped up your mathematical career.
48
148528
3133
使你的数学生涯更上一层楼
02:31
You started working with this man here.
49
151685
2452
你开始和这个人一起共事
02:34
Who is this?
50
154161
1164
这是谁呢
02:36
JS: Oh, [Shiing-Shen] Chern.
51
156352
1412
噢 陈(陈省身)
02:37
Chern was one of the great mathematicians of the century.
52
157788
3104
陈是本世纪最伟大的数学家之一
02:40
I had known him when I was a graduate student at Berkeley.
53
160916
5233
我在伯克利当研究生的时候 就已经知道他了
02:46
And I had some ideas,
54
166173
1871
我带着一些想法去找他
02:48
and I brought them to him and he liked them.
55
168068
2447
他很喜欢这些想法
02:50
Together, we did this work which you can easily see up there.
56
170539
6626
我们一起开展这项理论研究 你可以在这里看到
02:57
There it is.
57
177189
1150
就是这个
02:59
CA: It led to you publishing a famous paper together.
58
179198
3606
基于这项研究 你们一起发表了一篇著名的文章
03:02
Can you explain at all what that work was?
59
182828
3238
你可以给大家解释一下这项研究吗?
03:07
JS: No.
60
187028
1158
03:08
(Laughter)
61
188210
2274
(笑)
03:10
JS: I mean, I could explain it to somebody.
62
190966
2064
我的意思是 我可以向某些人解释
03:13
(Laughter)
63
193054
2075
(笑)
03:15
CA: How about explaining this?
64
195153
1864
要不讲下这个?
03:17
JS: But not many. Not many people.
65
197041
2729
但不是很多人
03:21
CA: I think you told me it had something to do with spheres,
66
201144
2814
我记得你告诉我 它和球体有关
03:23
so let's start here.
67
203982
1862
我们从这里说起吧
03:25
JS: Well, it did, but I'll say about that work --
68
205868
3600
确实 但我要讲一讲那项研究
03:29
it did have something to do with that, but before we get to that --
69
209492
3200
它确实和这球体有关 但在此之前我要说
03:32
that work was good mathematics.
70
212716
3540
这是一个非常棒的数学理论
03:36
I was very happy with it; so was Chern.
71
216280
2492
我非常喜欢研究它的过程,陈也一样
03:39
It even started a little sub-field that's now flourishing.
72
219910
4176
它甚至开创了一个现在很繁荣的副领域
03:44
But, more interestingly, it happened to apply to physics,
73
224638
5294
但更有趣的是 它正巧可以应用于物理
03:49
something we knew nothing about -- at least I knew nothing about physics,
74
229956
4295
一个我们完全不了解的东西 至少我是完全不了解的
03:54
and I don't think Chern knew a heck of a lot.
75
234275
2282
我觉得陈也不会了解太多
03:56
And about 10 years after the paper came out,
76
236581
3963
在文章发表大约十年后
04:00
a guy named Ed Witten in Princeton started applying it to string theory
77
240568
4480
普林斯顿一个叫Ed Witten的人 开始把它应用于弦理论
04:05
and people in Russia started applying it to what's called "condensed matter."
78
245072
4852
俄罗斯人开始把它应用在 被称作“凝聚体”的物理学中
04:09
Today, those things in there called Chern-Simons invariants
79
249948
4893
如今 这些被称为“陈-西蒙斯不变量”的东西
04:14
have spread through a lot of physics.
80
254865
1865
衍伸进了很多物理学理论中
04:16
And it was amazing.
81
256754
1174
这非常不可思议
04:17
We didn't know any physics.
82
257952
1365
我们根本不懂物理
04:19
It never occurred to me that it would be applied to physics.
83
259714
2854
我从没想到 它可以被应用于物理学
04:22
But that's the thing about mathematics -- you never know where it's going to go.
84
262592
3788
但这就是数学的迷人之处 你永远不知道它将去往何处
04:26
CA: This is so incredible.
85
266404
1492
这太奇妙了
04:27
So, we've been talking about how evolution shapes human minds
86
267920
4364
我们谈到 人类的思想 无论是否触及到真理
04:32
that may or may not perceive the truth.
87
272308
2508
是如何被进步的理论所改变的
04:34
Somehow, you come up with a mathematical theory,
88
274840
3313
无意间 在不了解任何物理学的情况下
04:38
not knowing any physics,
89
278177
1848
你提出了一个数学理论
04:40
discover two decades later that it's being applied
90
280049
2498
发现数十年之后 它已经被深度应用于
04:42
to profoundly describe the actual physical world.
91
282571
3031
描述真实的物理世界了
04:45
How can that happen?
92
285626
1153
那是怎样发生的呢?
04:46
JS: God knows.
93
286803
1157
天知道
04:47
(Laughter)
94
287984
2110
(笑)
04:50
But there's a famous physicist named [Eugene] Wigner,
95
290849
3150
有个著名的物理学家 Wigner
04:54
and he wrote an essay on the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics.
96
294023
5588
他写过一篇名为《数学在自然科学中不可思议的有效性》的文章
04:59
Somehow, this mathematics, which is rooted in the real world
97
299635
3952
某种程度上 数学植根于真实世界
05:03
in some sense -- we learn to count, measure, everyone would do that --
98
303611
4995
某种意义上 我们学着计算 测量 每个人都会这样
05:08
and then it flourishes on its own.
99
308630
1830
接着它就自己繁荣了起来
05:10
But so often it comes back to save the day.
100
310976
2841
却又常常回过头来挽救大局
05:14
General relativity is an example.
101
314293
2178
广义相对论就是一个例子
05:16
[Hermann] Minkowski had this geometry, and Einstein realized,
102
316495
3117
闵可夫斯基给出了他的四维空间理论 而爱因斯坦意识到
05:19
"Hey! It's the very thing in which I can cast general relativity."
103
319636
3847
嘿!就是这玩意儿 可以用来表达我的广义相对论
05:23
So, you never know. It is a mystery.
104
323507
3112
你永远也想不到 就是这么神奇
05:27
It is a mystery.
105
327056
1217
对 很神奇
05:28
CA: So, here's a mathematical piece of ingenuity.
106
328297
3296
这是一个精巧的数学模型
05:31
Tell us about this.
107
331617
1342
给我们讲讲吧
05:32
JS: Well, that's a ball -- it's a sphere, and it has a lattice around it --
108
332983
5924
噢 这是一个球 球体 外面有格子状的框架
05:38
you know, those squares.
109
338931
1573
你知道 这些正方形
05:42
What I'm going to show here was originally observed by [Leonhard] Euler,
110
342697
4906
我接下来要展示的 最初是由十八世纪伟大的数学家
05:47
the great mathematician, in the 1700s.
111
347627
2254
欧拉发现的
05:50
And it gradually grew to be a very important field in mathematics:
112
350223
5181
后来逐步发展成为 数学中非常重要的一个领域
05:55
algebraic topology, geometry.
113
355428
2334
代数拓扑 几何学
05:59
That paper up there had its roots in this.
114
359039
4364
上面的那篇文章是基于这个理论基础的
06:03
So, here's this thing:
115
363427
1834
是这样子的
06:05
it has eight vertices, 12 edges, six faces.
116
365285
4452
它有8个顶点 12条边 6个面
06:09
And if you look at the difference -- vertices minus edges plus faces --
117
369761
3830
如果你算一下 定点数 - 边的个数 + 面的个数(8-12+6)
06:13
you get two.
118
373615
1152
会得到2
06:14
OK, well, two. That's a good number.
119
374791
2219
好 2 是个好数字
06:17
Here's a different way of doing it -- these are triangles covering --
120
377034
4248
我们还可以这样算 表面覆盖了三角形
06:21
this has 12 vertices and 30 edges
121
381306
4577
这样的话 有12个顶点 30条边
06:25
and 20 faces, 20 tiles.
122
385907
4195
和20个面 铺了20片
06:30
And vertices minus edges plus faces still equals two.
123
390576
4591
顶点数 - 边的个数 + 面的个数(12-30+20)还是等于2
06:35
And in fact, you could do this any which way --
124
395191
2847
事实上 你随便怎么算
06:38
cover this thing with all kinds of polygons and triangles
125
398062
3398
用各种多边形和三角来覆盖表面
06:41
and mix them up.
126
401484
1320
混在一起
06:42
And you take vertices minus edges plus faces -- you'll get two.
127
402828
3279
再计算 顶点数 - 边的个数 + 面的个数 总是会等于2
06:46
Here's a different shape.
128
406131
1611
这儿有另外一个形状
06:48
This is a torus, or the surface of a doughnut: 16 vertices
129
408480
5250
它有一个环面 或者说轮状表面
表面附有长方形 形成的16个顶点 32条边 16个面
06:53
covered by these rectangles, 32 edges, 16 faces.
130
413754
4244
06:58
Vertices minus edges comes out to be zero.
131
418530
2684
点-边+面(16-32+16)结果是0
07:01
It'll always come out to zero.
132
421238
1475
并且总是0
07:02
Every time you cover a torus with squares or triangles
133
422737
4310
每次你用正方形或三角形或类似的形状
07:07
or anything like that, you're going to get zero.
134
427071
3935
覆盖一个环形 你总会得到0
07:12
So, this is called the Euler characteristic.
135
432514
2390
这就是欧拉示性数
07:14
And it's what's called a topological invariant.
136
434928
3449
也是一种拓扑不变量
07:18
It's pretty amazing.
137
438849
1156
相当神奇
07:20
No matter how you do it, you're always get the same answer.
138
440029
2791
无论你怎么做 总会得到相同的答案
07:22
So that was the first sort of thrust, from the mid-1700s,
139
442844
6299
这是自十八世纪中叶以来 首次 算是进入了一个
07:29
into a subject which is now called algebraic topology.
140
449167
3769
如今被称作 代数拓扑的学科
07:32
CA: And your own work took an idea like this and moved it
141
452960
2983
您自己的研究 是把像这样的一个概念
07:35
into higher-dimensional theory,
142
455967
2449
推进到了高维空间理论
07:38
higher-dimensional objects, and found new invariances?
143
458440
3088
高维空间物体 并发现了新的不变量?
07:41
JS: Yes. Well, there were already higher-dimensional invariants:
144
461552
4643
对 之前已经有高维空间不变量了
07:46
Pontryagin classes -- actually, there were Chern classes.
145
466219
4457
庞特里亚金类(Pontryagin classes) 事实上 还有陈类(Chern classes)
07:50
There were a bunch of these types of invariants.
146
470700
3548
这些类型的不变量有很多
07:54
I was struggling to work on one of them
147
474272
4135
我努力研究其中一个
07:58
and model it sort of combinatorially,
148
478431
4203
用组合数学的方法 而非传统方法
08:02
instead of the way it was typically done,
149
482658
3022
给他们建模
08:05
and that led to this work and we uncovered some new things.
150
485704
4359
从而得出了这个成果 我们揭示了一些新的东西
08:10
But if it wasn't for Mr. Euler --
151
490087
3501
但如果没有欧拉先生
08:13
who wrote almost 70 volumes of mathematics
152
493612
3981
写下了近70卷数学著作
08:17
and had 13 children,
153
497617
1731
还有13个子女
08:19
who he apparently would dandle on his knee while he was writing --
154
499372
6442
显然在他写作时 承欢膝下
08:25
if it wasn't for Mr. Euler, there wouldn't perhaps be these invariants.
155
505838
5774
如果没有欧拉先生 可能就不会有这些不变量了
08:32
CA: OK, so that's at least given us a flavor of that amazing mind in there.
156
512157
4097
所以这至少 给这个精彩的思想 增加了一丝风味
08:36
Let's talk about Renaissance.
157
516804
1543
让我们谈谈文艺复兴(Simons所创立的科技公司)
08:38
Because you took that amazing mind and having been a code-cracker at the NSA,
158
518371
5856
因为你带着那个精彩的想法 曾在国安局做着一名密码破译者
08:44
you started to become a code-cracker in the financial industry.
159
524251
3229
你开始在金融业做密码破译者
08:47
I think you probably didn't buy efficient market theory.
160
527504
2690
我觉得你应该没买有效市场理论(有效市场假说认为市场价格波动是随机的,交易者不可能持续从市场中获利。)
08:50
Somehow you found a way of creating astonishing returns over two decades.
161
530218
6387
二十年后 你突然找到一种创造惊人收益的方法
08:56
The way it's been explained to me,
162
536629
1671
你解释给我的方法
08:58
what's remarkable about what you did wasn't just the size of the returns,
163
538324
3499
你所做之事的卓越之处 并不只是收益的规模
09:01
it's that you took them with surprisingly low volatility and risk,
164
541847
3883
更是因为 相比其他对冲基金
09:05
compared with other hedge funds.
165
545754
1824
你的方法有着出奇低的波动性和风险
09:07
So how on earth did you do this, Jim?
166
547602
1929
你究竟是怎么做到的呢 Jim
09:10
JS: I did it by assembling a wonderful group of people.
167
550071
4111
我能做到是因为 我聚集了一个非常优秀的团队
09:14
When I started doing trading, I had gotten a little tired of mathematics.
168
554206
3956
我开始经商的时候 已经有点厌倦数学了
09:18
I was in my late 30s, I had a little money.
169
558186
3923
人近四十 有些小钱
09:22
I started trading and it went very well.
170
562133
2509
我开始经商 而且进行得很顺利
09:25
I made quite a lot of money with pure luck.
171
565063
2748
光凭运气赚了相当多的钱
09:27
I mean, I think it was pure luck.
172
567835
1666
我的意思是 我觉得那完全是运气
09:29
It certainly wasn't mathematical modeling.
173
569525
2109
这当然不是数学建模
09:31
But in looking at the data, after a while I realized:
174
571658
3831
但过一阵子 当我看着那些数据 我意识到
09:35
it looks like there's some structure here.
175
575513
2553
那里面好像存在着某种结构
09:38
And I hired a few mathematicians, and we started making some models --
176
578090
3697
我招募了一些数学家 我们开始建立一些模型
09:41
just the kind of thing we did back at IDA [Institute for Defense Analyses].
177
581811
4265
和我们当初在IDA(国防分析研究所)做的事情差不多
09:46
You design an algorithm, you test it out on a computer.
178
586100
2833
你设计一个算法 在电脑上测试
09:48
Does it work? Doesn't it work? And so on.
179
588957
2166
管用?不管用?之类的
09:51
CA: Can we take a look at this?
180
591443
1479
我们可以看一下这个吗
09:52
Because here's a typical graph of some commodity.
181
592946
4541
这儿有一份 某个商品的典型图表
09:58
I look at that, and I say, "That's just a random, up-and-down walk --
182
598487
4041
我看着它 只能说 这只是一条随机的 上上下下的走势图
10:02
maybe a slight upward trend over that whole period of time."
183
602552
2862
大概整体上有轻微上升的趋势
10:05
How on earth could you trade looking at that,
184
605438
2113
你究竟就怎么看着这样的东西 来做交易的呢
10:07
and see something that wasn't just random?
185
607575
2326
还能看出点不随机的东西呢
10:09
JS: In the old days -- this is kind of a graph from the old days,
186
609925
3247
在过去 这是过时的一种图表
10:13
commodities or currencies had a tendency to trend.
187
613196
4284
可以通过趋势来追踪商品或货币
10:17
Not necessarily the very light trend you see here, but trending in periods.
188
617504
6055
并不必然是你这儿看到的轻微的趋势 可能是周期性的趋势
10:23
And if you decided, OK, I'm going to predict today,
189
623583
4056
如果你决定 好 我今天打算要做预测
10:27
by the average move in the past 20 days --
190
627663
4968
通过前20天的平均变化
10:32
maybe that would be a good prediction, and I'd make some money.
191
632655
3107
可能会有一个好的预测 还赚了点钱
10:35
And in fact, years ago, such a system would work --
192
635786
5608
事实上 几年前 这样子的系统是有用的
10:41
not beautifully, but it would work.
193
641418
2391
并不完美 但确实有用
10:43
You'd make money, you'd lose money, you'd make money.
194
643833
2509
你赚点钱 亏点钱 再赚点钱
10:46
But this is a year's worth of days,
195
646366
2198
但这是一年中的黄金几天
10:48
and you'd make a little money during that period.
196
648588
4241
你在那个阶段可以赚到点钱
10:53
It's a very vestigial system.
197
653884
1958
这是一个非常不健全的系统
10:56
CA: So you would test a bunch of lengths of trends in time
198
656525
3529
所以你会及时地测试大量的趋势区间
11:00
and see whether, for example,
199
660078
2436
看是否 举个例子
11:02
a 10-day trend or a 15-day trend was predictive of what happened next.
200
662538
3481
是否10天或15天的走向 可以对下一步做出较准确的预判
11:06
JS: Sure, you would try all those things and see what worked best.
201
666043
6762
当然 你要测试各种类型 来判断哪个最有效
11:13
Trend-following would have been great in the '60s,
202
673515
3350
跟踪趋势在60年代是很好的策略
11:16
and it was sort of OK in the '70s.
203
676889
2132
在70年代就一般了
11:19
By the '80s, it wasn't.
204
679045
1873
80年代 就没用了
11:20
CA: Because everyone could see that.
205
680942
2817
因为每个人都能看到
11:23
So, how did you stay ahead of the pack?
206
683783
2782
所以 你是如何保持领先地位呢
11:27
JS: We stayed ahead of the pack by finding other approaches --
207
687046
6132
我们保持领先是通过 寻找其他方法
11:33
shorter-term approaches to some extent.
208
693202
2741
某种程度上来说 更短期的方法
11:37
The real thing was to gather a tremendous amount of data --
209
697107
3347
具体来说是收集大量数据
11:40
and we had to get it by hand in the early days.
210
700478
3578
早期 我们不得不手动来收集数据
11:44
We went down to the Federal Reserve and copied interest rate histories
211
704080
3466
我们到美联储 拷贝历史利率之类的数据
11:47
and stuff like that, because it didn't exist on computers.
212
707570
3265
因为电脑上根本没有
11:50
We got a lot of data.
213
710859
1643
我们得到了很多数据
11:52
And very smart people -- that was the key.
214
712526
4160
和非常聪明的人——这是关键
11:57
I didn't really know how to hire people to do fundamental trading.
215
717463
3776
我不太知道要怎么去雇佣做基本贸易的人
12:01
I had hired a few -- some made money, some didn't make money.
216
721749
2949
我请了些 有的赚钱了 有的没有
12:04
I couldn't make a business out of that.
217
724722
1880
因为这样 我没有成功地打开局面
12:06
But I did know how to hire scientists,
218
726626
2042
但我知道怎么请科学家
12:08
because I have some taste in that department.
219
728692
3389
因为在那个领域 我还是有点眼光的
12:12
So, that's what we did.
220
732105
1838
所以我们这么做了
12:13
And gradually these models got better and better,
221
733967
3231
渐渐地 这些模型越来越好
12:17
and better and better.
222
737222
1335
越来越好
12:18
CA: You're credited with doing something remarkable at Renaissance,
223
738581
3214
您在文艺复兴科技公司所做的最为人称道的事
12:21
which is building this culture, this group of people,
224
741819
2601
就是建立起了这样的文化 组建这样的团队
12:24
who weren't just hired guns who could be lured away by money.
225
744444
3142
他们不是会被简单地 被金钱诱惑的雇佣兵
12:27
Their motivation was doing exciting mathematics and science.
226
747610
3912
他们的动力在于令人激动的数学和科学
12:31
JS: Well, I'd hoped that might be true.
227
751860
2399
噢我挺希望这是真的
12:34
But some of it was money.
228
754283
3580
但有些原因也是钱
12:37
CA: They made a lot of money.
229
757887
1393
他们金钵满盈
12:39
JS: I can't say that no one came because of the money.
230
759304
2537
我不能断言 没有人是冲着钱来的
12:41
I think a lot of them came because of the money.
231
761865
2253
我觉得他们中大多数都是为了钱
12:44
But they also came because it would be fun.
232
764142
2021
但也是因为 这会很好玩
12:46
CA: What role did machine learning play in all this?
233
766187
2488
机器学习在这里扮演了怎样一个角色?
12:48
JS: In a certain sense, what we did was machine learning.
234
768699
3064
某种意义上 我们做的就是机器学习
12:52
You look at a lot of data, and you try to simulate different predictive schemes,
235
772879
6291
你观察一大堆数据 模拟不同的预测方案
12:59
until you get better and better at it.
236
779194
2182
直到你越来越擅长于此
13:01
It doesn't necessarily feed back on itself the way we did things.
237
781400
3767
我们所做之事 不见得一定有自我反馈
13:05
But it worked.
238
785191
2309
但确实有效
13:08
CA: So these different predictive schemes can be really quite wild and unexpected.
239
788150
4059
所以这些不同的预测方案 很有可能相当不受控制 且无法预料
13:12
I mean, you looked at everything, right?
240
792233
1914
我的意思是 你着眼于万事万物 不是吗
13:14
You looked at the weather, length of dresses, political opinion.
241
794171
3317
你要看天气 裙长 政见
13:17
JS: Yes, length of dresses we didn't try.
242
797512
2837
嗯 我们可没试过裙长
13:20
CA: What sort of things?
243
800373
2057
那是什么样的事物呢?
13:22
JS: Well, everything.
244
802454
1158
嗯 各种东西
13:23
Everything is grist for the mill -- except hem lengths.
245
803636
3264
各种对工作有价值的东西 衣服下摆长度不算在内
13:28
Weather, annual reports,
246
808852
2300
天气 年报
13:31
quarterly reports, historic data itself, volumes, you name it.
247
811176
4732
季报 历史数据 成交量
13:35
Whatever there is.
248
815932
1151
应有尽有
13:37
We take in terabytes of data a day.
249
817107
2621
我们一天内接收兆兆字节的数据
13:39
And store it away and massage it and get it ready for analysis.
250
819752
4124
储存 处理 准备用于分析
13:45
You're looking for anomalies.
251
825446
1382
你寻找的是异常现象
13:46
You're looking for -- like you said,
252
826852
2953
你找的是 就像你说的
13:49
the efficient market hypothesis is not correct.
253
829829
2452
有效市场假说(Efficient Markets Hypothesis,EMH。有效市场假说认为市场价格波动是随机的,交易者不可能持续从市场中获利。)是不正确的
13:52
CA: But any one anomaly might be just a random thing.
254
832305
3467
但任何一个异常现象 都有可能只是一个随机事件
13:55
So, is the secret here to just look at multiple strange anomalies,
255
835796
3658
所以 这儿的秘诀是 只看那些 重复出现的奇特异常现象
13:59
and see when they align?
256
839478
1328
并观察他们是否一致
14:01
JS: Any one anomaly might be a random thing;
257
841238
3213
任何一个异常现象可能是随机事件
14:04
however, if you have enough data you can tell that it's not.
258
844475
3039
然而 只要你有足够的数据 可以看出来它其实不是
14:07
You can see an anomaly that's persistent for a sufficiently long time --
259
847538
4950
你可以在足够长的时间段里 看到这些异常现象是长期存在的
14:12
the probability of it being random is not high.
260
852512
4975
它是随机事件的可能性不高
14:17
But these things fade after a while; anomalies can get washed out.
261
857511
4858
但有一些异常现象不久后就消逝了 会淡出市场
14:22
So you have to keep on top of the business.
262
862393
2420
所以你必须在商业上保持优势
14:24
CA: A lot of people look at the hedge fund industry now
263
864837
2672
如今很多人关注对冲基金产业
14:27
and are sort of ... shocked by it,
264
867533
4398
有点被它
14:31
by how much wealth is created there,
265
871955
2172
产生了那么多的财富
14:34
and how much talent is going into it.
266
874151
2245
那么多的天才投身其中 所惊吓到
14:37
Do you have any worries about that industry,
267
877523
4006
你对这个产业有什么担忧吗
14:41
and perhaps the financial industry in general?
268
881553
2414
可能宽泛来说 整个金融产业?
14:43
Kind of being on a runaway train that's --
269
883991
2704
有点像在一辆 停不下来的火车上
14:46
I don't know -- helping increase inequality?
270
886719
4030
它助长了不平等
14:50
How would you champion what's happening in the hedge fund industry?
271
890773
3831
你会怎样在目前的对冲基金产业获胜呢?
14:54
JS: I think in the last three or four years,
272
894628
2608
我认为 在过去三四年里
14:57
hedge funds have not done especially well.
273
897260
2103
对冲基金没有表现得特别好
14:59
We've done dandy,
274
899387
1400
我们做的看似繁荣
15:00
but the hedge fund industry as a whole has not done so wonderfully.
275
900811
4001
但对冲基金产业整体上 没有表现太过如意
15:04
The stock market has been on a roll, going up as everybody knows,
276
904836
4902
众所周知 证券市场一路顺风地向上发展
15:09
and price-earnings ratios have grown.
277
909762
3445
市价盈利率增长了
15:13
So an awful lot of the wealth that's been created in the last --
278
913231
3063
过去五到六年创造了大量财富,
15:16
let's say, five or six years -- has not been created by hedge funds.
279
916318
3350
而不是对冲基金创造了极大量财富
15:20
People would ask me, "What's a hedge fund?"
280
920458
3221
人们会问我 “什么是对冲基金”
15:23
And I'd say, "One and 20."
281
923703
2260
我会说 “一和二十”
15:25
Which means -- now it's two and 20 --
282
925987
3566
现在是二和二十了 意思是
15:29
it's two percent fixed fee and 20 percent of profits.
283
929577
3353
2%的管理费 和20%的收益
15:32
Hedge funds are all different kinds of creatures.
284
932954
2352
对冲基金有各种各样的
15:35
CA: Rumor has it you charge slightly higher fees than that.
285
935330
3239
有传言说您(公司)比那个收费稍微高一点?
15:39
JS: We charged the highest fees in the world at one time.
286
939339
3081
我们一度是全世界收费最高的
15:42
Five and 44, that's what we charge.
287
942444
3226
5和44 我们是这么收的
15:45
CA: Five and 44.
288
945694
1398
5和44
15:47
So five percent flat, 44 percent of upside.
289
947116
3234
所以抽取了固定5% 收益部分44% (抽取5%的资产管理费和44%的投资收益分成)
15:50
You still made your investors spectacular amounts of money.
290
950374
2783
你仍然让你的投资者们获得了可观的收益
15:53
JS: We made good returns, yes.
291
953181
1452
我们有很好的回报率 没错
15:54
People got very mad: "How can you charge such high fees?"
292
954657
3000
人们都要疯了 “你怎么能收这么高呢”
15:57
I said, "OK, you can withdraw."
293
957681
1627
我说 “好啊 你可以撤资嘛”
15:59
But "How can I get more?" was what people were --
294
959332
2818
但 “我怎么赚更多” 是人们所(关注的)
16:02
(Laughter)
295
962174
1504
(笑)
16:03
But at a certain point, as I think I told you,
296
963702
2440
但某种程度上 正如我说过的
16:06
we bought out all the investors because there's a capacity to the fund.
297
966166
5175
我们买下了所有的投资者 因为对于基金 我们有能力
16:11
CA: But should we worry about the hedge fund industry
298
971365
2704
但我们应该担心对冲基金产业
16:14
attracting too much of the world's great mathematical and other talent
299
974093
5438
吸引了太多世界上厉害的数学家和其他天才
16:19
to work on that, as opposed to the many other problems in the world?
300
979555
3238
而对世界上很多其他问题视而不见吗
16:22
JS: Well, it's not just mathematical.
301
982817
1929
嗯 不只是数学
16:24
We hire astronomers and physicists and things like that.
302
984770
2679
我们还雇了天文学家和物理学家 之类的
16:27
I don't think we should worry about it too much.
303
987833
2431
我不觉得我们应该对此 太过担忧
16:30
It's still a pretty small industry.
304
990288
3142
这仍然是相当小的一个产业
16:33
And in fact, bringing science into the investing world
305
993454
5997
事实上 将科学引进投资世界
16:39
has improved that world.
306
999475
2159
令它得到了改善
16:41
It's reduced volatility. It's increased liquidity.
307
1001658
4070
减少了波动性 增加了流动性
16:45
Spreads are narrower because people are trading that kind of stuff.
308
1005752
3189
因为人们在交易这样子的东西 传播变得有限
16:48
So I'm not too worried about Einstein going off and starting a hedge fund.
309
1008965
5076
所以我不太担心爱因斯坦会跑去开始玩对冲基金
16:54
CA: You're at a phase in your life now where you're actually investing, though,
310
1014478
4164
您现在的人生阶段 尽管实际上
16:58
at the other end of the supply chain --
311
1018666
3734
你在投资另外一个产业链
17:02
you're actually boosting mathematics across America.
312
1022424
4104
但实际推动了整个美国的数学
17:06
This is your wife, Marilyn.
313
1026552
1865
这是您妻子 Marilyn
17:08
You're working on philanthropic issues together.
314
1028441
4756
你们一起致力于慈善事业
17:13
Tell me about that.
315
1033221
1163
和我说说这个吧
17:14
JS: Well, Marilyn started --
316
1034408
3649
好 Marilyn开创了
17:18
there she is up there, my beautiful wife --
317
1038081
3447
这就是她 我美丽的老婆
17:21
she started the foundation about 20 years ago.
318
1041552
2972
她在大约20年前创建了一个基金会
17:24
I think '94.
319
1044548
1151
我想是1994年
17:25
I claim it was '93, she says it was '94,
320
1045723
2095
我觉得是1993年 但她说是1994年
17:27
but it was one of those two years.
321
1047842
2571
反正是这两年当中一个
17:30
(Laughter)
322
1050437
2135
(笑)
17:32
We started the foundation, just as a convenient way to give charity.
323
1052596
6719
我们创建这个基金 作为更方便做慈善的一个途径
17:40
She kept the books, and so on.
324
1060346
2507
她管账 处理相关事务
17:42
We did not have a vision at that time, but gradually a vision emerged --
325
1062877
6714
那时我们没什么愿景 但渐渐地浮现出一个想法
17:49
which was to focus on math and science, to focus on basic research.
326
1069615
5504
就是致力于数学和科学 致力于基础研究
17:55
And that's what we've done.
327
1075569
2772
这就是我们所做的
17:58
Six years ago or so, I left Renaissance and went to work at the foundation.
328
1078365
6355
大概六年前 我离开文艺复兴科技公司 开始在基金会做事
18:04
So that's what we do.
329
1084744
1571
所以这就是我们做的
18:06
CA: And so Math for America is basically investing
330
1086339
2909
所以美国数学协会(Math for America)主要投资
18:09
in math teachers around the country,
331
1089272
2638
全国范围的数学教师
18:11
giving them some extra income, giving them support and coaching.
332
1091934
3802
提供他们额外收入 给予他们支持和辅导
18:15
And really trying to make that more effective
333
1095760
3051
而且确实努力地变得更有效率
18:18
and make that a calling to which teachers can aspire.
334
1098835
2601
使它成为老师们可以立志追求的渴望
18:21
JS: Yeah -- instead of beating up the bad teachers,
335
1101460
4790
是啊 不去管打击了教育界士气的
18:26
which has created morale problems all through the educational community,
336
1106274
4853
那些坏老师
18:31
in particular in math and science,
337
1111151
2441
特别是数学和科学方面的
18:33
we focus on celebrating the good ones and giving them status.
338
1113616
6130
我们致力于赞美好的老师 给予他们重要的地位
18:39
Yeah, we give them extra money, 15,000 dollars a year.
339
1119770
2931
对了 我们每年提供给他们15000美元的额外资金
18:42
We have 800 math and science teachers in New York City in public schools today,
340
1122725
4467
如今我们在纽约的公立学校里有800位数学和科学老师
18:47
as part of a core.
341
1127216
1814
作为核心部分
18:49
There's a great morale among them.
342
1129054
3686
他们都很有斗志
18:52
They're staying in the field.
343
1132764
2506
坚守于他们的领域
18:55
Next year, it'll be 1,000 and that'll be 10 percent
344
1135294
2895
明年将会有1000个
18:58
of the math and science teachers in New York [City] public schools.
345
1138213
3544
会有10%纽约公立学校的数学、科学教师
19:01
(Applause)
346
1141781
5905
(鼓掌)
19:07
CA: Jim, here's another project that you've supported philanthropically:
347
1147710
3410
Jim 这是你所慈善事业的另外一个项目
19:11
Research into origins of life, I guess.
348
1151144
2397
我猜是 探究生命起源
19:13
What are we looking at here?
349
1153565
1447
我们看到的这是什么?
19:15
JS: Well, I'll save that for a second.
350
1155536
1882
这个我一会儿来讲
19:17
And then I'll tell you what you're looking at.
351
1157442
2162
我会告诉你看到的什么
19:19
Origins of life is a fascinating question.
352
1159628
3056
生命的起源是一个迷人的问题
19:22
How did we get here?
353
1162708
1533
我们来自何处
19:25
Well, there are two questions:
354
1165170
1771
有两个问题
19:26
One is, what is the route from geology to biology --
355
1166965
5868
一个是 从地质学到生物学 发展路线是什么
19:32
how did we get here?
356
1172857
1381
我们是怎样发展到现在的
19:34
And the other question is, what did we start with?
357
1174262
2364
另一个问题是 我们是怎么开始的
19:36
What material, if any, did we have to work with on this route?
358
1176650
3102
什么物质 如果有的话 是这条线路上必须参与的
19:39
Those are two very, very interesting questions.
359
1179776
3061
这是两个非常非常有趣的问题
19:43
The first question is a tortuous path from geology up to RNA
360
1183773
5834
第一个是从地质学发展到RNA 其间曲折的道路
19:49
or something like that -- how did that all work?
361
1189631
2258
或者类似的 那是怎么发展的
19:51
And the other, what do we have to work with?
362
1191913
2388
另外一个 是什么东西是我们必不可少的
19:54
Well, more than we think.
363
1194325
1771
超乎我们的想象
19:56
So what's pictured there is a star in formation.
364
1196120
4843
所以那张图是形成中的一颗恒星
20:01
Now, every year in our Milky Way, which has 100 billion stars,
365
1201836
3425
现在 每年 在我们拥有一千亿恒星的银河系中
20:05
about two new stars are created.
366
1205285
2495
大约有两个正在形成的恒星
20:07
Don't ask me how, but they're created.
367
1207804
2470
不要问我怎么做到的 但它们正在形成中
20:10
And it takes them about a million years to settle out.
368
1210298
3080
它们耗去了一百万年慢慢沉积
20:14
So, in steady state,
369
1214132
2176
进入稳定状态
20:16
there are about two million stars in formation at any time.
370
1216332
3848
随时随刻 都有两百万的恒星处于生成状态
20:20
That one is somewhere along this settling-down period.
371
1220204
3458
那一个是处于稳定状态的某处
20:24
And there's all this crap sort of circling around it,
372
1224067
2936
这些宇宙垃圾围绕着它转动
20:27
dust and stuff.
373
1227027
1498
灰尘 和其他东西
20:29
And it'll form probably a solar system, or whatever it forms.
374
1229479
3023
它可能会形成一个太阳系 或随便什么
20:32
But here's the thing --
375
1232526
2176
重点是
20:34
in this dust that surrounds a forming star
376
1234726
6348
在围绕着这个形成恒星的尘埃中
20:41
have been found, now, significant organic molecules.
377
1241098
6035
现在被发现存在 有着重大意义的 有机分子
20:47
Molecules not just like methane, but formaldehyde and cyanide --
378
1247958
6139
不只是像甲烷那样的分子 还有甲醛和氰化物
20:54
things that are the building blocks -- the seeds, if you will -- of life.
379
1254121
6517
像是生命结构基础(building blocks) 生命的种子的物质
21:01
So, that may be typical.
380
1261136
2692
所以那可能很有典型意义
21:04
And it may be typical that planets around the universe
381
1264395
6934
可能宇宙中的行星 起源于这些基础的结构基石
21:11
start off with some of these basic building blocks.
382
1271353
3612
是具有典型意义的
21:15
Now does that mean there's going to be life all around?
383
1275830
2715
这是否意味着周围会产生生命体呢
21:18
Maybe.
384
1278569
1364
有可能
21:19
But it's a question of how tortuous this path is
385
1279957
4127
但问题是 从那些脆弱的开端 那些种子
21:24
from those frail beginnings, those seeds, all the way to life.
386
1284108
4394
一路演变为生命的道路 是如何曲折
21:28
And most of those seeds will fall on fallow planets.
387
1288526
5192
那些种子大部分会掉落到荒芜的行星
21:33
CA: So for you, personally,
388
1293742
1409
对您个人而言
21:35
finding an answer to this question of where we came from,
389
1295175
2722
找到这些问题的答案
21:37
of how did this thing happen, that is something you would love to see.
390
1297921
3658
我们从哪里来 又是怎么发生的 是您乐于看到的
21:41
JS: Would love to see.
391
1301603
1786
乐于看到
21:43
And like to know --
392
1303413
1490
而且想要知道
21:44
if that path is tortuous enough, and so improbable,
393
1304927
5170
如果那条道路足够曲折 难以实现
21:50
that no matter what you start with, we could be a singularity.
394
1310121
4754
无论起源是什么 我们可能是个特例
21:55
But on the other hand,
395
1315336
1152
另一方面
21:56
given all this organic dust that's floating around,
396
1316512
3478
考虑到所有这些漂浮在周围的有机灰尘
22:00
we could have lots of friends out there.
397
1320014
3791
宇宙中我们可能有很多朋友
22:04
It'd be great to know.
398
1324947
1161
很高兴知道
22:06
CA: Jim, a couple of years ago, I got the chance to speak with Elon Musk,
399
1326132
3480
几年前 我有机会和伊隆·马斯克(南非企业家)谈话
22:09
and I asked him the secret of his success,
400
1329636
2837
我问到他成功的秘诀
22:12
and he said taking physics seriously was it.
401
1332497
3691
他说 秘诀就是 严肃地对待物理
22:16
Listening to you, what I hear you saying is taking math seriously,
402
1336696
4003
听了你的言论 我听到你说的就是 严肃地对待数学
22:20
that has infused your whole life.
403
1340723
3003
这个理念贯彻了你整个生命
22:24
It's made you an absolute fortune, and now it's allowing you to invest
404
1344123
4563
它使你拥有了可观的财富 如今又引领你
22:28
in the futures of thousands and thousands of kids across America and elsewhere.
405
1348710
4496
投资美国和其他地方成千上万孩子们的未来
22:33
Could it be that science actually works?
406
1353567
2858
有没有可能 科学确实起作用了
22:36
That math actually works?
407
1356449
2772
数学确实起作用了呢
22:39
JS: Well, math certainly works. Math certainly works.
408
1359245
4372
数学当然起作用了
22:43
But this has been fun.
409
1363641
1198
这很有趣
22:44
Working with Marilyn and giving it away has been very enjoyable.
410
1364863
4946
和Marilyn在一起工作 施予别人 让我感到非常愉快
22:49
CA: I just find it -- it's an inspirational thought to me,
411
1369833
2936
我刚发现 有个想法让我醍醐灌顶
22:52
that by taking knowledge seriously, so much more can come from it.
412
1372793
4007
就是严肃地对待知识 你可以从中得到很多很多
22:56
So thank you for your amazing life, and for coming here to TED.
413
1376824
3018
感谢您精彩的人生 感谢您来到TED
22:59
Thank you.
414
1379866
751
谢谢
23:00
Jim Simons!
415
1380651
1101
詹姆斯 西蒙斯!
23:01
(Applause)
416
1381806
4380
关于本网站

这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7